我的有色：5月高铜价抑制铜板带消费 6月淡季延续开工率难见回升-我的钢铁网

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<p>产能利用率方面，我的有色网调研了中国63家<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-967-----020108-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>铜板带</a>企业，2021年5月中国主要市场<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-967-----0201-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>铜</a>板带产量为19.01万吨，环比减少2.6%，同比增长8.7%；开工率为77.52%。进入5月，步入传统的消费淡季需求不足以及高<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-967-----0201-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>铜价</a>下，大中型企业产量下降，产出减少，小型企业产出都有下滑。</p> <p align="center">表一2021年5月铜板带企业开工率统计表</p> <p align="center"><img alt="" src="//img04.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/youse/2021/06/08/103311.jpg" style="width: 433px; height: 167px;" /></p> <p align="right">数据来源：我的有色网</p> <p>价格方面，本月紫铜板带价格区间在76650-81800元/吨，均价79225元/吨，环比上涨6.7%。黄铜板带价格区间在58000-62000元/吨，均价60000元/吨，环比上涨2.6%。</p> <p>消费方面，月上旬，五一长假归来铜价再度快速上涨，紫铜板带价格区间在77600-81800元/吨，黄铜板带价格区间在59850-62000元/吨，华东市场终端消费受高铜价抑制明显，但后期随着消费恢复，或将被迫接受高铜价，但是板带企业因资金压力被迫延迟交货，紫铜和黄铜板带环比减少10%。终端市场拿货T2紫铜带在78800元/吨位置采购意愿不强烈，成交不佳。华南市场受大宗商品涨价潮影响铜价强势上涨，国网投资变压器、电子电器行业以及新能源汽车发展，连接器、充电桩、电池网等产销快速增长，带动铜板带订单稍有增长，但高铜价迫使终端企业畏高情绪趋浓，板带企业因资金压力要求下游终端和贸易商要及时回款，板带成交不理想，成交环比下降8%左右。</p> <p align="center">图一 2021年5月铜板带价格走势图</p> <p align="center"><img alt="" src="//img07.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/youse/2021/06/08/103020.jpg" style="width: 587px; height: 401px;" /></p> <p align="right">数据来源：我的有色网</p> <p>月中旬，铜价仍然高歌猛进大幅拉涨，紫铜板带价格区间在77500-80800元/吨，黄铜板带价格区间在59850-62000元/吨，冲压厂拿货H62黄铜带在60200元/吨位置采购少量，订单明显受高价抑制明显，表示进入5月没有强劲需求下，铜价不断刷新高，实体企业的现金流面临一轮又一轮压力，导致下游终端和贸易商都没有动力备货，紫铜黄铜板带成交下滑10%。华南市场铜板带企业反馈铜价上涨将压力集中到产业的下游，连接器、变压器、电子电器等终端受高铜价抑制明显，贸易商和终端锁价意愿不强，环比较少12%，板带成交不佳。</p> <p>月末阶段，铜价先抑后扬。紫铜板带价格区间在76650-78850元/吨，黄铜板带价格区间在59200-59950元/吨，铜价下跌时，终端客户和贸易商继续补库，冲压厂，电子组装厂，连接器、变压器等企业大跌后重新刺激购买，板带企业维持去库速度，成交量环比增长20%，成交较为活跃。铜价上涨时，拿货普遍积极性都不高，为了维持生产，谨慎刚需采购，同时近期华南限电也对一些终端拿货减少，整体拿货减少10-15%，另外疫情影响终端采购更是雪上加霜，整体板带市场成交不景气。</p> <p align="center">图二 2021年中国铜板带进出口贸易量</p> <p align="center"><img alt="" src="//img04.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/youse/2021/06/08/103045.png" style="width: 770px; height: 415px;" /></p> <p align="right">数据来源：海关总署、我的有色网</p> <p>进出口方面，2020年初受疫情影响，我国铜板带产品进出口贸易呈现大幅下降。2020年下半年海外疫情爆发，国内疫情有效控制，部分海外国家生产受极大影响，供不应求局面凸显，致使我国铜板带出口增长，贸易逆差逐步收窄，2021年1-2月，国外疫情反反复复，国内进入中国春节假日前后，下游需求逐渐减少，但节前备货凸显，节中物流停运暂无发货，节后下游开始复工铜价急涨下游普遍观望，以消化节前库存为主，新订单缺乏，需求恢复推迟，整体1、2月进出口贸易总量大幅减少22.69%。进入3、4月旺季到来，疫情控制向好，海外延续恢复，国内随着市场逐渐开工，下游需求回暖，3、4月铜板带进出口贸易总量环比增长33.1%，但5月高铜价下，行业淡季来临，华南市场限电，板带消费或将受抑。</p> <p>后市预测，进入6月消费难有亮眼表现，终端需求明显不足，同时铜价过高导致终端利润成本增加，下游终端和贸易商锁价意愿不强，多数企业处于观望状态，但是当价格回落时也明显刺激下游逢低采购，我们认为终端需求仍在，只是高价拉高成本缩减利润抑制消费，所以铜价回落将释放一些需求。预计6月淡季延续铜板带开工率或将继续下滑。</p> <p align="center"></p>  <br /> </div> 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