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：成本及供需三重利好，提振业者交易信心</h2> 2024-10-14 16:58 来源：隆众资讯 作者：胡乃玲 <article class="article-text article-text_1"> <div data-val="43721" id="article-content"> <div id="text"> 导语：原料端再次陷入高位震荡阶段，沥青市场基于基本面开始波动，10月中旬，供需初现小幅错配，市场迎来小幅反弹，现货价格持续推涨提振业者交易信心，下面简要分析一下市场现状。一、成本及供需三重支撑，沥青价格连续推涨<table width="100"><tbody><tr style=";height:23px" class="firstRow"><td width="100" colspan="6" valign="bottom" style="border-top: 1px solid rgb(2, 57, 133); border-left: none; border-bottom: 1px solid windowtext; border-right: none; background: rgb(242, 242, 242); padding: 0px 7px;">表1 国内各地区沥青价格周度对比表单位：元/吨</td></tr><tr style=";height:23px"><td width="24" style="border-top: none; border-left: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); border-bottom: 1px solid windowtext; border-right: none; background: rgb(2, 57, 133); padding: 0px 7px;">指标</td><td width="15" style="border-top: none; border-right: none; border-left: none; border-image: initial; border-bottom: 1px solid windowtext; background: rgb(2, 57, 133); padding: 0px 7px;">2024/10/14</td><td width="15" style="border-top: none; border-right: none; border-left: none; border-image: initial; border-bottom: 1px solid windowtext; background: rgb(2, 57, 133); padding: 0px 7px;">2024/10/8</td><td width="15" style="border-top: none; border-right: none; border-left: none; border-image: initial; border-bottom: 1px solid windowtext; background: rgb(2, 57, 133); padding: 0px 7px;">2024/9/30</td><td width="15" style="border-top: none; border-right: none; border-left: none; border-image: initial; border-bottom: 1px solid windowtext; background: rgb(2, 57, 133); padding: 0px 7px;">环涨跌幅(%)</td><td width="15" style="border-top: none; border-left: none; border-bottom: 1px solid windowtext; border-right: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); background: rgb(2, 57, 133); padding: 1px;">趋势</td></tr><tr style=";height:23px"><td width="24" style="border-top: none; border-left: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); border-bottom: none; border-right: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); background: rgb(242, 242, 242); padding: 0px 7px;">全国均价</td><td width="15" style="border-top: none; border-bottom: none; border-left: none; border-image: initial; border-right: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); background: rgb(242, 242, 242); padding: 0px 7px;">3634</td><td width="15" style="border-top: none; border-bottom: none; border-left: none; border-image: initial; border-right: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); background: rgb(242, 242, 242); padding: 0px 7px;">3593</td><td width="15" style="border-top: none; border-bottom: none; border-left: none; border-image: initial; border-right: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); background: rgb(242, 242, 242); padding: 0px 7px;">3550</td><td width="15" style="border-top: none; border-bottom: none; border-left: none; border-image: initial; border-right: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); background: rgb(242, 242, 242); padding: 0px 7px;">1.1%</td><td width="15" style="border-top: none; border-bottom: none; border-left: none; border-image: initial; border-right: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); background: rgb(242, 242, 242); padding: 1px;">↑</td></tr><tr style=";height:23px"><td width="24" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); padding: 0px 7px;">华南</td><td width="15" style="border-top: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); border-right: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); border-image: initial; border-left: none; padding: 0px 7px;">3610</td><td width="15" style="border-top: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); border-right: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); border-image: initial; border-left: none; padding: 0px 7px;">3590</td><td width="15" style="border-top: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); border-right: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); border-image: initial; border-left: none; padding: 0px 7px;">3555</td><td width="15" style="border-top: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); border-right: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); border-image: initial; border-left: none; padding: 0px 7px;">0.6%</td><td width="15" style="border-top: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); border-right: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); border-image: initial; border-left: none; padding: 1px;">↑</td></tr><tr style=";height:23px"><td width="24" style="border-right: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); border-left: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); border-image: initial; border-top: none; background: rgb(242, 242, 242); padding: 0px 7px;">华东</td><td width="15" style="border-top: none; border-left: none; border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); border-right: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); background: rgb(242, 242, 242); padding: 0px 7px;">3635</td><td width="15" style="border-top: none; border-left: none; border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); border-right: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); background: rgb(242, 242, 242); padding: 0px 7px;">3635</td><td width="15" style="border-top: none; border-left: none; border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); border-right: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); background: rgb(242, 242, 242); padding: 0px 7px;">3610</td><td width="15" style="border-top: none; border-left: none; border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); border-right: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); background: rgb(242, 242, 242); padding: 0px 7px;">0.0%</td><td width="15" style="border-top: none; border-left: none; border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); border-right: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); background: rgb(242, 242, 242); padding: 1px;">→</td></tr><tr style=";height:23px"><td width="24" style="border-right: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); border-left: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); border-image: initial; border-top: none; padding: 0px 7px;">山东</td><td width="15" style="border-top: none; border-left: none; border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); border-right: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); padding: 0px 7px;">3625</td><td width="15" style="border-top: none; border-left: none; border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); border-right: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); padding: 0px 7px;">3565</td><td width="15" style="border-top: none; border-left: none; border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); border-right: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); padding: 0px 7px;">3485</td><td width="15" style="border-top: none; border-left: none; border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); border-right: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); padding: 0px 7px;">1.7%</td><td width="15" style="border-top: none; border-left: none; border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); border-right: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); padding: 1px;">↑</td></tr><tr style=";height:23px"><td width="24" style="border-right: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); border-left: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); border-image: initial; border-top: none; background: rgb(242, 242, 242); padding: 0px 7px;">西北</td><td width="15" style="border-top: none; border-left: none; border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); border-right: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); background: rgb(242, 242, 242); padding: 0px 7px;">4215</td><td width="15" style="border-top: none; border-left: none; border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); border-right: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); background: rgb(242, 242, 242); padding: 0px 7px;">4170</td><td width="15" style="border-top: none; border-left: none; border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); border-right: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); background: rgb(242, 242, 242); padding: 0px 7px;">4135</td><td width="15" style="border-top: none; border-left: none; border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); border-right: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); background: rgb(242, 242, 242); padding: 0px 7px;">1.1%</td><td width="15" style="border-top: none; border-left: none; border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); border-right: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); background: rgb(242, 242, 242); padding: 1px;">↑</td></tr><tr style=";height:23px"><td width="24" style="border-right: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); border-left: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); border-image: initial; border-top: none; padding: 0px 7px;">东北</td><td width="15" style="border-top: none; border-left: none; border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); border-right: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); padding: 0px 7px;">3645</td><td width="15" style="border-top: none; border-left: none; border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); border-right: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); padding: 0px 7px;">3625</td><td width="15" style="border-top: none; border-left: none; border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); border-right: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); padding: 0px 7px;">3625</td><td width="15" style="border-top: none; border-left: none; border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); border-right: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); padding: 0px 7px;">0.6%</td><td width="15" style="border-top: none; border-left: none; border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); border-right: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); padding: 1px;">↑</td></tr><tr style=";height:23px"><td width="24" style="border-right: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); border-left: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); border-image: initial; border-top: none; background: rgb(242, 242, 242); padding: 0px 7px;">华北</td><td width="15" style="border-top: none; border-left: none; border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); border-right: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); background: rgb(242, 242, 242); padding: 0px 7px;">3440</td><td width="15" style="border-top: none; border-left: none; border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); border-right: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); background: rgb(242, 242, 242); padding: 0px 7px;">3355</td><td width="15" style="border-top: none; border-left: none; border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); border-right: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); background: rgb(242, 242, 242); padding: 0px 7px;">3330</td><td width="15" style="border-top: none; border-left: none; border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); border-right: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); background: rgb(242, 242, 242); padding: 0px 7px;">2.5%</td><td width="15" style="border-top: none; border-left: none; border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); border-right: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); background: rgb(242, 242, 242); padding: 1px;">↑</td></tr><tr style=";height:23px"><td width="24" style="border-right: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); border-left: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); border-image: initial; border-top: none; background: rgb(242, 242, 242); padding: 0px 7px;">西南</td><td width="15" style="border-top: none; border-left: none; border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); border-right: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); background: rgb(242, 242, 242); padding: 0px 7px;">3765</td><td width="15" style="border-top: none; border-left: none; border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); border-right: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); background: rgb(242, 242, 242); padding: 0px 7px;">3765</td><td width="15" style="border-top: none; border-left: none; border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); border-right: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); background: rgb(242, 242, 242); padding: 0px 7px;">3750</td><td width="15" style="border-top: none; border-left: none; border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); border-right: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); background: rgb(242, 242, 242); padding: 0px 7px;">0.0%</td><td width="15" style="border-top: none; border-left: none; border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); border-right: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); background: rgb(242, 242, 242); padding: 1px;">→</td></tr><tr style=";height:23px"><td width="84" colspan="5" valign="bottom" style="border-top: none; border-right: none; border-left: none; border-image: initial; border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(2, 57, 133); background: rgb(242, 242, 242); padding: 0px 7px;">数据来源：隆众资讯</td><td width="15" valign="top" style="border-top: none; border-right: none; border-left: none; border-image: initial; border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(2, 57, 133); background: rgb(242, 242, 242); padding: 1px;"> </td></tr></tbody></table>截止 2024 年10月14日，国内沥青均价为3634元/吨，环比上周价格涨幅1.1%，连续两周价格坚挺，维持上行走势。国际原油的高位震荡对于沥青仍有部分支撑但有限，近期价格上涨的主要原因在于部分地区炼厂的供应及上下游库存压力有限等因素支撑，推涨情绪较重，尤其山东及华北地区价格上涨更为明显，低供应以及终端赶工刚需对价格起到支撑作用。二、利润修复弱势，部分产能恢复积极性欠佳<table><tbody><tr class="firstRow"><td width="330" valign="top" style="border-top: 1px solid rgb(2, 57, 133); border-left: none; border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(2, 57, 133); border-right: none; padding: 0px 7px; word-break: break-all;">图1 <a href="https://oil.oilchem.net/201/7210/" target="_blank" style="text-wrap: wrap;">沥青价格</a>与布伦特走势对比</td><td width="388" valign="top" style="border-top: 1px solid rgb(2, 57, 133); border-left: none; border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(2, 57, 133); border-right: none; padding: 0px 7px; word-break: break-all;">图2 沥青理论利润与价格对比图（不抵扣）</td></tr><tr><td width="330" valign="top" style="border: none; padding: 0px 7px; word-break: break-all;"><img src="//img03.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2024/10/14/1658401.png" title="[国庆专题] ：供需双重利好，沥青市场上行提振业者交易信心" alt="[国庆专题] ：供需双重利好，沥青市场上行提振业者交易信心" width="390" height="220"/></td><td width="388" valign="top" style="border: none; padding: 0px 7px; word-break: break-all;"><img src="//img07.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2024/10/14/1658402.png" title="[国庆专题] ：供需双重利好，沥青市场上行提振业者交易信心" alt="[国庆专题] ：供需双重利好，沥青市场上行提振业者交易信心" width="390" height="220"/></td></tr><tr><td width="330" valign="top" style="border-top: none; border-right: none; border-left: none; border-image: initial; border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(2, 57, 133); padding: 0px 7px;">数据来源：隆众资讯</td><td width="388" valign="top" style="border-top: none; border-right: none; border-left: none; border-image: initial; border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(2, 57, 133); padding: 0px 7px;"> </td></tr></tbody></table> <table><tbody><tr class="firstRow"><td width="330" valign="top" style="border-top: 1px solid rgb(2, 57, 133); border-left: none; border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(2, 57, 133); border-right: none; padding: 0px 7px; word-break: break-all;">图3 2024年沥青产能利用率走势图</td><td width="388" valign="top" style="border-top: 1px solid rgb(2, 57, 133); border-left: none; border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(2, 57, 133); border-right: none; padding: 0px 7px; word-break: break-all;">图4 石油沥青产量及产能利用率趋势预测</td></tr><tr><td width="330" valign="top" style="border: none; padding: 0px 7px; word-break: break-all;"><img src="//img07.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2024/10/14/1658403.png" alt="[数据分析]：中国石油沥青供应周度数据分析（20240919-0925）" width="390" height="220" title="[数据分析]：中国石油沥青供应周度数据分析（20240919-0925）"/></td><td width="388" valign="top" style="border: none; padding: 0px 7px; word-break: break-all;"><img src="//img02.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2024/10/14/1658404.jpg" title="[国庆专题] ：供需双重利好，沥青市场上行提振业者交易信心" alt="[国庆专题] ：供需双重利好，沥青市场上行提振业者交易信心" width="390" height="220"/></td></tr><tr><td width="330" valign="top" style="border-top: none; border-right: none; border-left: none; border-image: initial; border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(2, 57, 133); padding: 0px 7px;">数据来源：隆众资讯</td><td width="388" valign="top" style="border-top: none; border-right: none; border-left: none; border-image: initial; border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(2, 57, 133); padding: 0px 7px; word-break: break-all;"> </td></tr></tbody></table>截至10月9日，中国沥青炼厂产能利用率为29%，环比增加0.8%，处于近五年低位水平，1月至今，国内沥青累积产量共计1951.6万吨，较去年同期下降19.5%，沥青产量远低于同期水平。10月初，原油反弹较为强劲，利润修复弱势，抑制炼厂生产积极性，同时成本与供应存在时间错配，后期随气温变冷，市场需求逐步萎缩，后期部分中小型炼厂产量的兑现存在不确定性，供应低位整体利好价格坚挺。三、去库力度尚可，业者库存压力有限<table><tbody><tr class="firstRow"><td width="330" valign="top" style="border-top: 1px solid rgb(2, 57, 133); border-left: none; border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(2, 57, 133); border-right: none; padding: 0px 7px; word-break: break-all;">图5 国内沥青厂库库存走势图</td><td width="388" valign="top" style="border-top: 1px solid rgb(2, 57, 133); border-left: none; border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(2, 57, 133); border-right: none; padding: 0px 7px; word-break: break-all;">图6 国内沥青社会库库库存走势图</td></tr><tr><td width="330" valign="top" style="border: none; padding: 0px 7px; word-break: break-all;"><img src="//img06.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2024/10/14/1658405.png" title="[国庆专题] ：供需双重利好，沥青市场上行提振业者交易信心" alt="[国庆专题] ：供需双重利好，沥青市场上行提振业者交易信心" width="390" height="220"/></td><td width="388" valign="top" style="border: none; padding: 0px 7px; word-break: break-all;"><img src="//img05.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2024/10/14/1658406.png" title="[国庆专题] ：供需双重利好，沥青市场上行提振业者交易信心" alt="[国庆专题] ：供需双重利好，沥青市场上行提振业者交易信心" width="390" height="220"/></td></tr><tr><td width="330" valign="top" style="border-top: none; border-right: none; border-left: none; border-image: initial; border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(2, 57, 133); padding: 0px 7px;">数据来源：隆众资讯</td><td width="388" valign="top" style="border-top: none; border-right: none; border-left: none; border-image: initial; border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(2, 57, 133); padding: 0px 7px;"> </td></tr></tbody></table>需求端近期数据表现向好，截止2024年10月14日，国内54家沥青样本厂库库存共计82.2万吨，较上周一（10月7日）减少4.1%。本期国内沥青厂库涨跌互现，其中山东东地区厂库去库较为明显，主要由于统计周期内区内部分炼厂降量及转产带动供应下降，加之近期下游终端需求尚可，带动厂库去库明显。截止2024年10月14日，国内沥青104家社会库库存共计157.2万吨，较上周一（10月7日）减少6.2%。统计周期内国内社会库存多数下行，其中东北地区社会库去库较为明显，主要由于统计周期内区外送到资源价格偏高，下游转而采购当地资源为主，社会库资源出货为主，带动社会库去库。银十当期，南北降雨天气逐渐减少，但考虑到施工时间逐渐被压缩，终端赶工需求提振，整体库存有望继续维持去库状态。 <table width="100"><tbody><tr style=";height:23px" class="firstRow"><td width="100" colspan="8" valign="top" style="border-top: 1px solid rgb(2, 57, 133); border-left: none; border-bottom: 1px solid windowtext; border-right: none; background: rgb(242, 242, 242); padding: 1px; word-break: break-all;">表2 10月各地区沥青市场价格预估表单位：元/吨</td></tr><tr style=";height:23px"><td width="16" style="border-top: none; border-left: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); border-bottom: 1px solid windowtext; border-right: none; background: rgb(2, 57, 133); padding: 0px 7px;">日期</td><td width="13" style="border-top: none; border-right: none; border-left: none; border-image: initial; border-bottom: 1px solid windowtext; background: rgb(2, 57, 133); padding: 0px 7px;">山东</td><td width="12" style="border-top: none; border-right: none; border-left: none; border-image: initial; border-bottom: 1px solid windowtext; background: rgb(2, 57, 133); padding: 0px 7px;">华东</td><td width="10" style="border-top: none; border-right: none; border-left: none; border-image: initial; border-bottom: 1px solid windowtext; background: rgb(2, 57, 133); padding: 1px;">华北</td><td width="10" style="border-top: none; border-right: none; border-left: none; border-image: initial; border-bottom: 1px solid windowtext; background: rgb(2, 57, 133); padding: 1px;">西南</td><td width="13" style="border-top: none; border-right: none; border-left: none; border-image: initial; border-bottom: 1px solid windowtext; background: rgb(2, 57, 133); padding: 0px 7px;">东北</td><td width="10" style="border-top: none; border-right: none; border-left: none; border-image: initial; border-bottom: 1px solid windowtext; background: rgb(2, 57, 133); padding: 0px 7px;">西北</td><td width="10" style="border-top: none; border-left: none; border-bottom: 1px solid windowtext; border-right: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); background: rgb(2, 57, 133); padding: 1px;">华南</td></tr><tr style=";height:23px"><td width="16" style="border-top: none; border-left: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); border-bottom: none; border-right: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); background: rgb(242, 242, 242); padding: 0px 7px;">2024/10/8</td><td width="13" style="border-top: none; border-bottom: none; border-left: none; border-image: initial; border-right: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); background: rgb(242, 242, 242); padding: 0px 7px;">3625</td><td width="12" style="border-top: none; border-bottom: none; border-left: none; border-image: initial; border-right: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); background: rgb(242, 242, 242); padding: 0px 7px;">3635</td><td width="10" style="border-top: none; border-bottom: none; border-left: none; border-image: initial; border-right: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); background: rgb(242, 242, 242); padding: 1px;">3440</td><td width="10" style="border-top: none; border-bottom: none; border-left: none; border-image: initial; border-right: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); background: rgb(242, 242, 242); padding: 1px;">3765</td><td width="13" style="border-top: none; border-bottom: none; border-left: none; border-image: initial; border-right: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); background: rgb(242, 242, 242); padding: 0px 7px;">3645</td><td width="10" style="border-top: none; border-bottom: none; border-left: none; border-image: initial; border-right: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); background: rgb(242, 242, 242); padding: 0px 7px;">4215</td><td width="10" style="border-top: none; border-bottom: none; border-left: none; border-image: initial; border-right: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); background: rgb(242, 242, 242); padding: 1px;">3610</td></tr><tr style=";height:23px"><td width="16" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); padding: 0px 7px;">2024/10/14</td><td width="13" style="border-top: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); border-right: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); border-image: initial; border-left: none; padding: 0px 7px;">3600</td><td width="12" style="border-top: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); border-right: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); border-image: initial; border-left: none; padding: 0px 7px;">3635</td><td width="10" style="border-top: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); border-right: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); border-image: initial; border-left: none; padding: 1px;">3440</td><td width="10" style="border-top: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); border-right: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); border-image: initial; border-left: none; padding: 1px;">3765</td><td width="13" style="border-top: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); border-right: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); border-image: initial; border-left: none; padding: 0px 7px;">3645</td><td width="10" style="border-top: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); border-right: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); border-image: initial; border-left: none; padding: 0px 7px;">4215</td><td width="10" style="border-top: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); border-right: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); border-image: initial; border-left: none; padding: 1px;">3595</td></tr><tr style=";height:23px"><td width="16" style="border-right: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); border-left: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); border-image: initial; border-top: none; background: rgb(242, 242, 242); padding: 0px 7px;">2024/10/21</td><td width="13" style="border-top: none; border-left: none; border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); border-right: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); background: rgb(242, 242, 242); padding: 0px 7px;">3510</td><td width="12" style="border-top: none; border-left: none; border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); border-right: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); background: rgb(242, 242, 242); padding: 0px 7px;">3635</td><td width="10" style="border-top: none; border-left: none; border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); border-right: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); background: rgb(242, 242, 242); padding: 1px;">3405</td><td width="10" style="border-top: none; border-left: none; border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); border-right: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); background: rgb(242, 242, 242); padding: 1px;">3765</td><td width="13" style="border-top: none; border-left: none; border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); border-right: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); background: rgb(242, 242, 242); padding: 0px 7px;">3645</td><td width="10" style="border-top: none; border-left: none; border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); border-right: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); background: rgb(242, 242, 242); padding: 0px 7px;">4175</td><td width="10" style="border-top: none; border-left: none; border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); border-right: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); background: rgb(242, 242, 242); padding: 1px;">3590</td></tr><tr style=";height:23px"><td width="16" style="border-right: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); border-left: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); border-image: initial; border-top: none; padding: 0px 7px;">2024/10/28</td><td width="13" style="border-top: none; border-left: none; border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); border-right: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); padding: 0px 7px;">3485</td><td width="12" style="border-top: none; border-left: none; border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); border-right: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); padding: 0px 7px;">3635</td><td width="10" style="border-top: none; border-left: none; border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); border-right: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); padding: 1px;">3315</td><td width="10" style="border-top: none; border-left: none; border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); border-right: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); padding: 1px;">3750</td><td width="13" style="border-top: none; border-left: none; border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); border-right: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); padding: 0px 7px;">3625</td><td width="10" style="border-top: none; border-left: none; border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); border-right: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); padding: 0px 7px;">4140</td><td width="10" style="border-top: none; border-left: none; border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); border-right: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); padding: 1px;">3580</td></tr><tr style=";height:23px"><td width="16" style="border-right: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); border-left: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); border-image: initial; border-top: none; padding: 0px 7px; word-break: break-all;">预计周涨跌幅</td><td width="13" style="border-top: none; border-left: none; border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); border-right: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); padding: 0px 7px;">-2.50%</td><td width="12" style="border-top: none; border-left: none; border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); border-right: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); padding: 0px 7px;">0.00%</td><td width="10" style="border-top: none; border-left: none; border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); border-right: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); padding: 1px;">-1.02%</td><td width="10" style="border-top: none; border-left: none; border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); border-right: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); padding: 1px;">0.00%</td><td width="13" style="border-top: none; border-left: none; border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); border-right: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); padding: 0px 7px;">0.00%</td><td width="10" style="border-top: none; border-left: none; border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); border-right: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); padding: 0px 7px;">-0.95%</td><td width="10" style="border-top: none; border-left: none; border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); border-right: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); padding: 1px;">-0.14%</td></tr><tr style=";height:23px"><td width="16" style="border-right: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); border-left: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); border-image: initial; border-top: none; background: rgb(242, 242, 242); padding: 0px 7px; word-break: break-all;">预计月涨跌幅</td><td width="13" style="border-top: none; border-left: none; border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); border-right: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); background: rgb(242, 242, 242); padding: 0px 7px;">-2.24%</td><td width="12" style="border-top: none; border-left: none; border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); border-right: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); background: rgb(242, 242, 242); padding: 0px 7px;">0.00%</td><td width="10" style="border-top: none; border-left: none; border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); border-right: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); background: rgb(242, 242, 242); padding: 1px;">-1.19%</td><td width="10" style="border-top: none; border-left: none; border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); border-right: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); background: rgb(242, 242, 242); padding: 1px;">-0.40%</td><td width="13" style="border-top: none; border-left: none; border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); border-right: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); background: rgb(242, 242, 242); padding: 0px 7px;">0.00%</td><td width="10" style="border-top: none; border-left: none; border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); border-right: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); background: rgb(242, 242, 242); padding: 0px 7px;">-0.72%</td><td width="10" style="border-top: none; border-left: none; border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); border-right: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); background: rgb(242, 242, 242); padding: 1px;">-0.28%</td></tr><tr style=";height:23px"><td width="100" colspan="8" valign="top" style="border-top: none; border-right: none; border-left: none; border-image: initial; border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(2, 57, 133); background: rgb(242, 242, 242); padding: 1px;">数据来源：隆众资讯</td></tr></tbody></table>综合来看，国际原油宽幅震荡，对于沥青成本端仍有支撑。供应端来看山东地区供应偏紧，部分炼厂近期转产、复产延期以及限量发货情况集中，预计10月20日左右会有所改善；华东镇海炼化、江苏新海、金陵石化等维持间歇生产，市场供应维持相对低位，叠加现阶段市场沥青收尾刚需有所支撑，整体现货支撑明显，短期来看利好价格坚挺，但成本端支撑存在不确定性，对于市场情绪支撑不强，随着后期供应的恢复以及需求的进一步收缩，预计未来两周价格价格逐步下行。  </div> </div> </article> <article class="content-block m-copyRight"> 资讯编辑：胡乃玲 0533-7027098 资讯监督：李丽丽 0533-7026295 资讯投诉：李倩 0533-7026993 </article> 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