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closeTranscriptText="Close Transcript" closeDisclaimerText="Close Disclaimer" disclaimerTitle="Disclaimer" transcriptTitle="Transcript" carouselNextArrowText="Go to Next Item" carouselPreviousArrowText="Return to Previous Item" carouselDotsLabel="of" playlistItemLabel="Item {0} of {1} Play {2} video" validCloseCaptions="true" data-video-id="1_630nl3ob_240502 Market Decode - Bull Markets - Kirsten FINAL"> <div id="1_630nl3ob" class="uc-media__player"> </div> <div class="uc-media-transcript" aria-hidden="true" aria-expanded="false"> <div class="uc-media-transcript__header"> <button aria-label="Close Transcript" class="uc-media-transcript__close uc-media-icon-close" tabindex="-1" title="Close Transcript"></button> </div> <div class="uc-media-transcript__container" tabindex="-1"> <h3 class="uc-media-transcript__title">Transcript</h3> <div class="uc-media-transcript__text"></div> </div> </div> <script type="application/ld+json">{"@type":"VideoObject","name":"240502 Market Decode - Bull Markets - Kirsten FINAL","description":"No description","thumbnailUrl":"https://cfvod.kaltura.com/p/4699762/sp/469976200/thumbnail/entry_id/1_630nl3ob/version/100011","uploadDate":"2024-05-10T16:34:52Z","contentUrl":"https://cdnapisec.kaltura.com/p/4699762/sp/469976200/playManifest/entryId/1_630nl3ob/format/url/protocol/https","embedUrl":"https://cdnapisec.kaltura.com/p/4699762/sp/469976200/playManifest/entryId/1_630nl3ob/format/url/protocol/https","width":1920,"height":1080,"duration":"PT2M29S","transcript":"[Music in background] [Animated glitches containing various letters flip to spell out the following financial terms] On-screen copy: Bear Market Business Cycle Risks Bull Market Fixed Income Inflation Equities Diversification Interest Rates Opportunities Geopolitics Market Catalysts [Animated glitches end] On-screen copy: Market Decode On-screen disclaimer: Please read important information at the end of this program. Recorded on 5/2/2024. [Kirsten Cabacungan speaking throughout] After a strong run in early 2024, markets got off to a rocky start in the second quarter. The S&P 500 tumbled off its March highs and ended 4% lower for the month of April, and the Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index, or the VIX, touched its highest levels since last October. So, what’s behind the volatility and how worried should investors be? On-screen copy: Kirsten Cabacungan Investment Strategist, Chief Investment Office Merrill and Bank of America Private Bank Hi, I’m Kirsten Cabacungan, with some insights that can help you keep short-term market performance in perspective. On-screen copy: At the end of April, the S&P 500 was up 5.6% for the year and 40.8% since the October 2022 bear market low. Source: Bloomberg. Bear market low as of October 12, 2022. Data as of April 30, 2024. On-screen disclaimer: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. It is not possible to invest in an index. First, it’s worth remembering that the S&P 500 is still up more than 5% for the year and roughly 40% from the start of this bull market in late 2022. On-screen copy: Driving market volatility · Geopolitical disruptions · Rising commodity prices · Stubborn inflation True, the likely causes of recent volatility — from geopolitical disruptions and rising commodity prices to stubborn inflation that remains above the Federal Reserve’s target – represent clear risks. On-screen copy: The economy grew by a lower-than-expected 1.6% in the first quarter. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, April 25, 2024. And the Gross Domestic Product, or GDP, figures released in April showed that the economy grew by a lower-than-expected 1.6% annualized pace during the first quarter — versus 3.4% in the fourth quarter of last year — raising some concerns over “stagflation” – a time of high prices and slow growth that we haven’t seen in decades. On-screen copy: Are we stuck in a stagflation economy – a time of high prices and slow growth? Nevertheless, we believe that this bull market still has room to run — and that it’s way too early to raise the specter of stagflation. Why is this? The more moderate GDP number was driven largely by a drop in company inventory levels and by a rise in imports versus exports. Those factors shouldn’t obscure the underlying economic strengths: On-screen copy: Underlying strengths · Healthy consumer spending · Rebound in housing activity · Continued business investment · Corporate earnings strength · Stocks haven’t minded a Fed “pause” Consumer spending, while dipping slightly, remains healthy. Residential investment rebounded and business investment continues to hold up, and first quarter corporate earnings appear on track with the previous quarter. And while stubborn inflation has delayed long-awaited Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, history tells us stocks have historically performed well when the Fed “pauses” for extended periods. An escalation of geopolitical conflicts or a sharp reacceleration in inflation remain risks to financial markets and could turn companies more cautious on investing and hiring. On-screen copy: What investors can consider · Stay diversified · Avoid sudden decisions · View volatility as a buying opportunity But we believe the fundamentals remain positive and suggest that investors stay diversified, avoid sudden decisions based on headlines, and view any period of weakness as an opportunity to strategically add to their portfolios. [Music in background] For more timely insights on the economy and the markets, be sure to read our weekly Capital Market Outlook. On-screen disclaimers: Important Disclosures The opinions expressed are as of 5/2/2024 and are subject to change. Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Asset allocation and diversification do not ensure a profit or protect against loss in declining markets. Equity securities are subject to stock market fluctuations that occur in response to economic and business developments. This information should not be construed as investment advice and is subject to change. It is provided for informational purposes only and is not intended to be either a specific offer by Bank of America, Merrill or any affiliate to sell or provide, or a specific invitation for a consumer to apply for, any particular retail financial product or service that may be available. The Chief Investment Office (CIO) provides thought leadership on wealth management, investment strategy and global markets; portfolio management solutions; due diligence; and solutions oversight and data analytics. CIO viewpoints are developed for Bank of America Private Bank, a division of Bank of America, N.A., (“Bank of America”) and Merrill Lynch, Pierce, Fenner & Smith Incorporated (“MLPF&S” or “Merrill”), a registered broker-dealer, registered investment adviser and a wholly owned subsidiary of Bank of America Corporation (“BofA Corp.”). Merrill makes available certain investment products sponsored, managed, distributed or provided by companies that are affiliates of BofA Corp. MLPF&S is a registered broker‐dealer, registered investment adviser, Member SIPC and a wholly owned subsidiary of BofA Corp. Merrill Private Wealth Management is a division of MLPF&S that offers a broad array of personalized wealth management products and services. Both brokerage and investment advisory services (including financial planning) are offered by the Private Wealth Advisors through MLPF&S. The nature and degree of advice and assistance provided, the fees charged, and client rights and Merrill’s obligations will differ among these services. Investments involve risk, including the possible loss of principal investment. The banking, credit and trust services sold by the Private Wealth Advisors are offered by licensed banks and trust companies, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC and other affiliated banks. Bank of America Private Bank is a division of Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC and a wholly owned subsidiary of BofA Corp. Trust and fiduciary services are provided by wholly owned banking affiliates of BofA Corp., including Bank of America, N.A. Investment products: Are Not FDIC Insured Are Not Bank Guaranteed May Lose Value © 2024 Bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved. 6592130 - 05/2024 [End of transcript]","@context":"http://schema.org"}</script> </uc-media> </div> </div> </div> </section> </div> <div class="aem-wrap--text section"> <div class="text js-rte-tagging" data-cmp="enhancedText"> <p> </p> <p>While a number of risks to the markets bear watching, there’s cause for long-term optimism, believes Kirsten Cabacungan, Investment Strategist for the Chief Investment Office (CIO), Merrill and Bank of America Private Bank.</p> <p> </p> <p>Watch the video above for her informed perspective on the factors — like healthy consumer spending and corporate earnings strength — that bode well for future market performance. “Looking at those kinds of fundamentals is usually a good way to take the pulse on where we are in the market cycle,” Cabacungan says.</p> <p> </p> <p>For more insights into the markets and economy, read the CIO’s weekly <a href="/capital-market-outlook.html">Capital Market Outlook</a>.</p> </div></div> <div class="aem-wrap--background-container section"> <section class="background-container background-container--contained "> <div class="background-container__section cool-gray-5-bg" style=" "> <div class="background-container__wrapper "> <div class="aem-wrap--vendor-snippet section" data-cmp="vendor-snippet"> <uc-vendor-snippet version="functional_3.10.2-WEALTHV5" class="uc uc-vendor-snippet"> <div class="knotch_placeholder"></div> </uc-vendor-snippet> </div> </div> </div> </section> </div> <div class="aem-wrap--background-container section"> <section class="background-container background-container--full-bleed "> <div class="background-container__section " style=" "> <div class="background-container__wrapper " style="max-width:864px;"> <div class="find-advisor section"> <div class="find-advisor js-find-advisor " data-cmp="findAdvisor"> <div class="find-advisor__header white-bg"> <div class="find-advisor__header-content"> <h2 class="find-advisor__header-title black-color">Choose your advisor in a more personalized way</h2> <div class="find-advisor__header-description"><p>All our advisors are committed to putting your needs and priorities first. 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