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Mysteel半年报：2024下半年钒市供需错配有望改善-我的钢铁网
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style="text-indent: 24pt; line-height: 150%; margin: 0pt 0pt 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="line-height: 150%;">政策面:住建部明确表示，“房地产仍就是支柱产业”一二季度金融机构对于地产支持力度不断加持，地产白名单企业、银行降息，各地政府亦是纷纷放开限购，推出多项利市措施，然各项工作虽有成效，但主要集中于去库存上，对于地产新开项目拉动有限（抑制螺纹产量需求）；</span></p> <p style="text-indent: 24pt; line-height: 150%; margin: 0pt 0pt 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="line-height: 150%;">国际面:降息是国际市场对于美联储、欧洲央行上半年较热的话题，通胀2%的目标目前来还需要更多有利的信息支撑，制造业疲软抑制着市国际场对于钒产品的需求，1-6月国际钒市未有大的波动，一直处于微幅震荡中。</span></p> <p><strong>一、2024上半年五氧化二钒、钒氮、钒铁价格走势图</strong></p> <p><img src="//img05.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2024/07/08/bd271f9fef4e4aac986b7ac1080b38b5.png" width="528" height="267" /></p> <p style="text-indent: 24pt; line-height: 150%; margin: 0pt 0pt 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="line-height: 150%;">同步共振是钒系产品的主要特征，原料强则基础牢固，反之则地动山摇。一季度片钒原料在产量的反噬下，价格出现了近年来的新低，二季度虽在成本及投机需求刺激之下，曾经一度出现“回光”，然外部环境的未能扭转，加之投机获利离场原料价格再次回落，并震荡运行至六月末；钒氮合金、钒铁运行曲线基本与原料片钒同步，拉涨、获利离场逻辑基本通用，唯独差异在于50钒铁因<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-967-----0102-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>特钢</a>需求刺激，震荡幅度小于钒氮合金。</span></p> <p><strong>二、2024上半年五氧化二钒、钒氮、钒铁价格走势图</strong></p> <p><img src="//img01.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2024/07/08/f988744339b94625955858fb539164e4.png" width="513" height="273" /></p> <p style="text-indent: 24pt; line-height: 150%; margin: 0pt 0pt 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="line-height: 150%;">二季度片钒平均产量10307吨，较一季度平均产量10566吨，环比减少2.3%，片钒产量1-6月同比增加5.6%；二季度钒氮合金平均产量3455吨，较一季度平均产量3587吨，环比减少3.6%，钒氮合金产量1-6月同比减少19.20%；二季度50钒铁平均产量3379.33吨，较一季度50钒铁平均产量2990吨，环比增长13.01%，50钒铁1-6月同比减少36.81%，从对比数据不难看出供需错配仍是钒行业的基本态势。</span></p> <p><strong>三、2021-2024<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-968-----010101-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>螺纹钢</a>产量图</strong></p> <p><img src="//img07.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2024/07/08/a1b234a9c51640f793c5f6cd54ae5a28.png" width="514" height="274" /></p> <p style="text-indent: 24pt; line-height: 150%; margin: 0pt 0pt 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="line-height: 150%;">纵观21-24年螺纹产量，最高点与最低点月度产量相差大于150万吨，侧面反应出螺纹产需占比都在双双下滑，特别是进入24年，在地方基建及地产下滑的双重加持下，螺纹盈利空间受到极大挤压，二季度后产量虽有反弹，但与之前期数据不可同日而语，在XZ生产力需求下的钢企品种转型可见一斑。</span></p> <p><strong>四、2024上半年钒铁、钒氮消费对比图</strong></p> <p><img src="//img05.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2024/07/09/9ca7ea24f9c4466fba0a4a299f5c78e0.png" width="508" height="289" /></p> <p>刚需采购降低企业库存，提高资金使用效率及货物周转率，是钢企面对当前螺纹市场的有效手段，传统意义上的节前备货，已被多批量高周转所替代，一季度末，节点含义上的需求转折亦是如期到来，只是力度与突发性较之前有了明显区别，50钒铁需求的稳步增加，侧面验证了钢企品种转型正在递进式深入。</p> <p><strong>五、2022-2024钒铁钒氮价格对比图</strong></p> <p><img src="//img01.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2024/07/08/41e8f7ab5f654adbb3afc8122e274ff0.png" width="514" height="274" /></p> <p style="text-indent: 24pt; text-align: justify; line-height: 150%; margin: 0pt 0pt 0.0001pt;" align="justify"><span style="line-height: 150%;">比较22年3月与24年3月，钒氮价格落差大于10万元/吨，价格增长率大于-60.87%，50钒铁价格落差大于7万元/吨，价格增长率大于-43.75，皆可谓腰斩。24年一季度与二季度钒氮合金价格落差大于3万元/吨，价格增长率大于-20%，50钒铁价格落差大于2万元/吨，价格增长率大于-18%。</span></p> <p style="text-indent: 24pt; text-align: justify; line-height: 150%; margin: 0pt 0pt 0.0001pt;" align="justify"><strong><span style="line-height: 150%;">六、2024上半年钒铁、五氧化二钒国际市场价格走势</span></strong></p> <p><img src="//img03.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2024/07/08/166391bd2ea44566a6c830ed19bb6402.png" width="554" height="327" /></p> <p style="text-indent: 24pt; text-align: justify; line-height: 150%; margin: 0pt 0pt 0.0001pt;" align="justify"><span style="line-height: 150%;">降息是国际市场对于美联储、欧洲央行上半年较热的话题，通胀2%的目标目前来还需要更多有利的信息支撑，制造业疲软抑制着市国际场对于钒产品的需求，1-6月国际钒市未有大的波动，一直处于微幅震荡中。</span></p> <p style="text-indent: 24pt; text-align: left; line-height: 150%; margin: 0pt 0pt 0.0001pt;"><strong><span style="line-height: 150%;">2024年下半年展望</span></strong></p> <p style="text-indent: 24pt; text-align: left; line-height: 150%; margin: 0pt 0pt 0.0001pt;"><strong><span style="line-height: 150%;">1、自然情况:</span></strong></p> <p style="text-indent: 24pt; text-align: left; line-height: 150%; margin: 0pt 0pt 0.0001pt;"><strong><span style="line-height: 150%;"> 随着7月份我国将全面进入主汛期，全国自然灾害风险形势更为复杂严峻。东北、华北、华东、华中等地洪涝灾害风险高；长江、淮河、海河、松辽、太湖等流域可能出现较重汛情，都将为螺纹的去库带来干扰；</span></strong></p> <p style="text-indent: 24pt; text-align: left; line-height: 150%; margin: 0pt 0pt 0.0001pt;"><strong><span style="line-height: 150%;">2、国际面:</span></strong></p> <p style="text-indent: 24pt; text-align: left; line-height: 150%; margin: 0pt 0pt 0.0001pt;"><strong><span style="line-height: 150%;"> 美联储会议纪要显示，美联储官员在上次会议中承认美国经济似乎正在放缓，而且“物价压力正在减轻”，但仍建议在承诺降息之前采取观望态度。官员们认为，在“有更多信息让他们更有信心”通胀正朝着2%的目标迈进之前，降低借贷成本是不合适的；预示着短期之内国内需求难有大的起色；</span></strong></p> <p style="text-indent: 24pt; text-align: left; line-height: 150%; margin: 0pt 0pt 0.0001pt;"><strong><span style="line-height: 150%;">3、地产面:</span></strong></p> <p style="text-indent: 24pt; text-align: left; line-height: 150%; margin: 0pt 0pt 0.0001pt;"><strong><span style="line-height: 150%;"> 广东、河北、浙江、河南、福建、重庆、安徽、江苏等省市的房地产融资协调机制运行顺利，部分地区在完成第一批、第二批“白名单”项目推送后，已经启动第三批项目的筛选和推送工作，预示着地产去库存进入新局面，然样本建筑工地资金到位率为61.08%，周环比下降1.52个百分点，也预示着新开工工地，确保资金到位是未来一时期的艰苦任务；</span></strong></p> <p style="text-indent: 24pt; text-align: left; line-height: 150%; margin: 0pt 0pt 0.0001pt;"><strong><span style="line-height: 150%;">4、新能源面:</span></strong></p> <p style="text-indent: 24pt; text-align: left; line-height: 150%; margin: 0pt 0pt 0.0001pt;"><strong><span style="line-height: 150%;"> XZ生产力推动下的钒电储能项目能否按时落地，应用场景建设资金能否顺利到位，钒电解液需求是否会出现供需错配，长时储能电力输送机制能否进行有利改革，下半年的新增项目能否着实增添希望，这些都在考验着钒电的发展。</span></strong></p> <p style="text-indent: 24pt; text-align: justify; line-height: 150%; margin: 0pt 0pt 0.0001pt;" align="justify"> </p> <!--指标说明附件--> <br /> </div> </div> </article> <article class="content-block m-copyRight"> 资讯编辑：王歆昀 021-26093621 </br> 资讯监督：查佐栋 021-26093218 </br> 资讯投诉：陈杰 021-26093100 </br> </article> <article 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