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xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M1216 832q0-185-131.5-316.5t-316.5-131.5-316.5 131.5-131.5 316.5 131.5 316.5 316.5 131.5 316.5-131.5 131.5-316.5zm512 832q0 52-38 90t-90 38q-54 0-90-38l-343-342q-179 124-399 124-143 0-273.5-55.5t-225-150-150-225-55.5-273.5 55.5-273.5 150-225 225-150 273.5-55.5 273.5 55.5 225 150 150 225 55.5 273.5q0 220-124 399l343 343q37 37 37 90z"/></svg> </div> </span> </button> </form> </div></li></ul> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div class="header-menu-sidebar-overlay hfg-ov"></div> </div> </header> <main id="content" class="neve-main" role="main"> <div class="container archive-container"> <div class="row"> <div class="nv-index-posts blog col"> <div class="nv-page-title-wrap nv-big-title" > <div class="nv-page-title "> <h1>January 2023</h1> </div> </div>  <div class="posts-wrapper"><article id="post-6402" class="post-6402 post type-post status-publish format-standard hentry category-new-south-wales layout-default col-12 nv-non-grid-article "> <div class="article-content-col"> <div class="content"> <div class="non-grid-content default-layout-content"><h2 class="blog-entry-title entry-title"><a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/political-parties-registered-to-contest-the-2023-nsw-election/" rel="bookmark">Fifteen Parties Registered to Contest the 2023 NSW Election</a></h2><ul class="nv-meta-list"><li class="meta author vcard"><span class="author-name fn">by <a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/author/antony-greenfroggy-com-au/" title="Posts by Antony Green" rel="author">Antony Green</a></span></li><li class="meta date posted-on"><time class="entry-date published" datetime="2023-01-14T12:00:43+11:00" content="2023-01-14">January 14, 2023</time><time class="updated" datetime="2023-01-14T12:40:15+11:00">January 14, 2023</time></li></ul><div class="excerpt-wrap entry-summary"><p>Fifteen parties are registered to contest the 2023 NSW election on 25 March including two that have undergone late name changes.</p> <p>The rules in NSW for registering political parties were substantially toughened after the farcical “tablecloth” ballot paper at the 1999 Legislative Council election.</p> <p>NSW parties require 750 members for registration, and all members relied upon for registration must provide a signed <a href="https://elections.nsw.gov.au/NSWEC/media/NSWEC/Forms/FD-2694-Declaration-of-party-membership.pdf">Declaration of Party Membership</a>, a substantially tougher requirement than is necessary to register a Federal party. Parties must also pay a $2,000 fee and provide substantial detail on the workings of their constitution. Parties also undergo reviews to ensure they maintain the required membership.</p> <p>Importantly for the coming election, NSW requires parties be registered for 12 months before they can access to the benefits of party registration. The main benefits registration gains are the ability to centrally nominate candidates, and having a party name printed next to party candidates on ballot papers.</p> <p>So the 15 names listed inside this post are the only parties eligible to have their names printed on ballot papers for the 25 March election.<a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/political-parties-registered-to-contest-the-2023-nsw-election/" class="" rel="bookmark">Read More »<span class="screen-reader-text">Fifteen Parties Registered to Contest the 2023 NSW Election</span></a></p> </div></div> </div> </div> </article> <article id="post-6389" class="post-6389 post type-post status-publish format-standard hentry category-by-elections category-preferential-voting-single-member-av category-victoria tag-election tag-narracan tag-supplementary tag-victoria layout-default col-12 nv-non-grid-article "> <div class="article-content-col"> <div class="content"> <div class="non-grid-content default-layout-content"><h2 class="blog-entry-title entry-title"><a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/vic22-2-party-preferred-results-and-swings-by-district/" rel="bookmark">VIC22 – 2-Party Preferred Results and Swings by District</a></h2><ul class="nv-meta-list"><li class="meta author vcard"><span class="author-name fn">by <a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/author/antony-greenfroggy-com-au/" title="Posts by Antony Green" rel="author">Antony Green</a></span></li><li class="meta date posted-on"><time class="entry-date published" datetime="2023-01-11T11:31:32+11:00" content="2023-01-11">January 11, 2023</time><time class="updated" datetime="2023-01-11T21:31:24+11:00">January 11, 2023</time></li></ul><div class="excerpt-wrap entry-summary"><p>Inside this post I am publishing corrected two-party preferred (2PP) results, state-wide and by district, for the 2022 Victorian election.</p> <p>The post is based on the <a href="https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/results/state-election-results/2022-state-election-results">Victorian Electoral Commission’s (VEC’s) published two-party preferred totals</a>. At the moment the difference in my table is that I include corrected the two-party preferred totals for Brighton and Werribee.</p> <p>These two corrected totals have been calculated from the data entered ballot paper files for both seats. The VEC did not publish a completed preference distribution for either seat but the correct 2PP can be calculated from the data files. I recently analysed the preference flows for seven districts where data entry was available, including for <a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/vic22-brighton-analysis-of-preferences/">Brighton</a> and <a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/vic22-werribee-analysis-of-preferences/">Werribee</a>.</p> <p>In February the VEC intends to undertake formal preference distributions in districts where a distribution was not required. I will update the table and this post as the new figures become available.</p> <p>As well as publishing two-party preferred totals, the post explains the VEC’s counting procedures that are responsible for me having a different state-wide 2PP, and also why there will be further changes when the VEC conducts the additional distributions in February.<a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/vic22-2-party-preferred-results-and-swings-by-district/" class="" rel="bookmark">Read More »<span class="screen-reader-text">VIC22 – 2-Party Preferred Results and Swings by District</span></a></p> </div></div> </div> </div> </article> <article id="post-6380" class="post-6380 post type-post status-publish format-standard hentry category-preferential-voting-single-member-av category-victoria tag-elections tag-preferences tag-victoria layout-default col-12 nv-non-grid-article "> <div class="article-content-col"> <div class="content"> <div class="non-grid-content default-layout-content"><h2 class="blog-entry-title entry-title"><a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/vic22-werribee-analysis-of-preferences/" rel="bookmark">VIC22 – Werribee – Analysis of Preferences</a></h2><ul class="nv-meta-list"><li class="meta author vcard"><span class="author-name fn">by <a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/author/antony-greenfroggy-com-au/" title="Posts by Antony Green" rel="author">Antony Green</a></span></li><li class="meta date posted-on"><time class="entry-date published" datetime="2023-01-10T14:30:25+11:00" content="2023-01-10">January 10, 2023</time><time class="updated" datetime="2023-01-10T17:15:23+11:00">January 10, 2023</time></li></ul><div class="excerpt-wrap entry-summary"><p>Werribee was one of the seven districts where the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) conducted its re-check of election night votes by data entering ballot paper preferences into a computer system. Werribee had 15 candidates, and as explained in my <a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/vic22-election-melton-analysis-of-preferences/">Melton</a> post, this presented difficulties for the VEC in conducting manual re-checks so data entry was used.</p> <p>Werribee was of interest in 2022 after the second place finish of Independent Joe Garra in 2018. Werribee had a very safe 13.4% margin versus the Liberal Party, but slightly less safe 9.2% margin versus Garra. Labor MP Tim Pallas was saved from another challenge when Garra contested Point Cook after his home suburb of Werribee South was transferred to Point Cook in the redistribution. But a new Independent emerged in local car dealership owner Paul Hopper. In the end Hopper’s challenge fizzled and he finished fourth with only 5.9%.</p> <p>With 15 candidates, Werribee saw a very high informal vote at 9.7% on a turnout of 85.6%. A very low 30.1% of votes were cast on polling day, 57.3% were Pre-polls, 8.2% Postal votes and 3.8% Absent votes.</p> <p>The two major parties attracted 70.7% of the vote between them, Labor 45.4%% and the Liberal Party 25.3%. The other 29.3% was split across 13 candidates, none of whom passed 7%.</p> <p>As with my previous posts on <a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/vic22-election-northcote-analysis-of-preference-data/">Northcote</a>, <a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/vic22-election-preston-analysis-of-preferences/">Preston</a>, <a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/vic22-election-hawthorn-analysis-of-preferences/">Hawthorn</a>, <a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/vic22-election-brighton-analysis-of-preferences/">Brighton</a>, <a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/vic22-election-melton-analysis-of-preferences/">Melton</a> and <a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/vic22-election-point-cook-analysis-of-preferences/">Point Cook</a>, this post will use of the electronic ballot papers to analyse preference flow statistics and also to look at the influence of candidate how-to-votes. </p> <p>The key findings for Werribee are –</p> <ul> <li>The Liberal Party how-to-vote, which switched in 2022 to recommend preference for the Greens ahead of Labor, resulted in <strong>71.5% of Liberal voters following the recommendation and putting the Greens ahead of Labor</strong>. Note that Liberal preferences were not distributed.</li> <li>For the 12 Point Cook candidates that registered how-to-votes indicating preferences, 25.6% of ballot papers exactly matched the how-to-vote of the chosen first preference party. Labor at 26.9% and the Liberal Party 34.6% were the highest concordance rates, with Independent Hopper third at 27.4%. Fewer voters for the plethora of minor parties and independents followed a how-to-vote.</li> <li>In the two-party preferred count, a relatively low 53.1% of preferences favoured Labor over Liberal.</li> <li>The full two-candidate preferred count finished as Labor 23,517 (60.9%) to Liberal 15,086 (39.1%), 0.4% higher for Labor than the VEC’s count derived from polling place results.</li> </ul> <p>More detail with tables inside the post.<a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/vic22-werribee-analysis-of-preferences/" class="" rel="bookmark">Read More »<span class="screen-reader-text">VIC22 – Werribee – Analysis of Preferences</span></a></p> </div></div> </div> </div> </article> <article id="post-6368" class="post-6368 post type-post status-publish format-standard hentry category-pendulums category-new-south-wales tag-elections tag-electoral-pendulum tag-new-south-wales tag-nsw layout-default col-12 nv-non-grid-article "> <div class="article-content-col"> <div class="content"> <div class="non-grid-content default-layout-content"><h2 class="blog-entry-title entry-title"><a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/electoral-pendulum-for-the-2023-nsw-election/" rel="bookmark">Electoral Pendulum for the 2023 NSW Election</a></h2><ul class="nv-meta-list"><li class="meta author vcard"><span class="author-name fn">by <a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/author/antony-greenfroggy-com-au/" title="Posts by Antony Green" rel="author">Antony Green</a></span></li><li class="meta date posted-on"><time class="entry-date published" datetime="2023-01-08T15:46:27+11:00" content="2023-01-08">January 8, 2023</time><time class="updated" datetime="2023-01-23T07:21:04+11:00">January 23, 2023</time></li></ul><div class="excerpt-wrap entry-summary"><p>With just 11 weeks to go until the NSW election on 25 March, I thought it was time to publish the Electoral Pendulum that I am advising the ABC to use for the election.</p> <p>Since the 2019 election there has been a redistribution of electoral boundaries, five by-elections and a number of members who have left the party for which they were elected.</p> <p>The pendulum inside this posts tries to account for the numerous changes. I’ve also summarised the 2020/21 redistribution, and provided notes on alternate margins for seats.</p> <p>Depending on nominations, there may be one or two seats where I change the margin between now and March.</p> <p>The Coalition won the 2019 election with 48 seats to Labor 36 with nine members on the crossbench, three Greens, three Independents and three Shooters, Fishers and Farmers. (Three SFF in total, not one of each.)</p> <p>As I explain in the post, accounting for redistributions, by-elections and defections, the starting point for the 2023 election is Coalition 46 seats, Labor 38 and nine on the crossbench, three Greens and six Independents. Majority government requires 47 seats.</p> <p>With the increasing number of NSW seats that are no longer major party contests, talking about the uniform swing each side needs to win is becoming less meaningful. The Coalition holds five seats on margins under 4% and Labor six. The nine crossbenchers will be trying to retain their seats, and there will be new Independents nominating, especially in safe Liberal seats.</p> <p>Labor needs nine seats on a daunting swing of 6.2% for majority government, but can hope to form government with support from the crossbench if it can gain five seats to finish with more seats than the Coalition, though the presence of at least three Greens may open the possibility that Labor could form government with fewer seats than the Coalition.</p> <p>Premier Perrottet and his predecessor Glady Berejiklian have managed to govern for more than two years without a clear majority in the Legislative Assembly. It is one of the rare occasions in recent years where a Coalition government has successfully managed a hung parliament. The size of the crossbench, and the chance it will increase in size on 25 March, mean the result of the election may only be the starting point for the formation of the next NSW government. <a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/electoral-pendulum-for-the-2023-nsw-election/" class="" rel="bookmark">Read More »<span class="screen-reader-text">Electoral Pendulum for the 2023 NSW Election</span></a></p> </div></div> </div> </div> </article> </div> <div class="w-100"></div> </div> <div class="nv-sidebar-wrap col-sm-12 nv-right blog-sidebar " > <aside id="secondary" role="complementary"> <div id="email-subscribers-form-1" class="widget widget_email-subscribers-form"><div class="emaillist" id="es_form_f1-n1"><form action="/2023/01/#es_form_f1-n1" method="post" class="es_subscription_form es_shortcode_form es_ajax_subscription_form" id="es_subscription_form_6748e90ba545e" data-source="ig-es" data-form-id="1"><div class="es-field-wrap"><label>Name*<br /><input type="text" name="esfpx_name" 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