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total.</p></div> <ul class="list list-publication-hal is-columns-1 is-columns-md-1"> <li class="list__item has-mb-5"> <article class="publications-hal-list-item"> <picture class="publications-hal-list-item__image" data-error-alt="Image cassée"> <img alt="" class="lazy lazyload" data-error-src="data:image/svg+xml,%3Csvg%20xmlns%3D%22http%3A%2F%2Fwww.w3.org%2F2000%2Fsvg%22%20width%3D%22210%22%20height%3D%22210%22%20viewBow%3D%220%200%20210%20210%22%20%20%2F%3E" data-src="https://www.parisschoolofeconomics.eu/app/uploads/2024/08/ico-working-paper.svg" src="data:image/svg+xml,%3Csvg%20xmlns%3D%22http%3A%2F%2Fwww.w3.org%2F2000%2Fsvg%22%20width%3D%22210%22%20height%3D%22210%22%20viewBow%3D%220%200%20210%20210%22%20%20%2F%3E" width="210" height="210"> </picture> <div class="publications-hal-list-item__content"> <span class="item-title js-title-tag-to-change publications-hal-list-item__title"> <a href="https://www.parisschoolofeconomics.eu/publications-hal/ou-et-pourquoi-les-politiciens-envoient-ils-du-porc-les-transferts-du-gouvernement-central-aux-municipalites-francaises/" class="publications-hal-list-item__title-link"> <span class="underline">Où et pourquoi les politiciens envoient-ils du porc ? Les transferts du gouvernement central aux municipalités françaises</span> </a> <span class="publications-hal-list-item__subtitle">Pré-publication, Document de travail</span><span class="sr-only">:</span> <p class="item-teaser publications-hal-list-item__teaser">Cet article utilise des données françaises pour estimer simultanément l'impact de deux types de connexions sur les subventions publiques allouées aux municipalités. L'étude de différents types de liens dans un même cadre permet de distinguer les différentes motivations qui peuvent conduire à la pratique du charcutage. Nous faisons une distinction entre les municipalités où les ministres étaient en fonction avant leur nomination au gouvernement et celles où ils vivaient lorsqu'ils étaient enfants. En exploitant les entrées et sorties des ministres du gouvernement, nous montrons que les municipalités où un ministre était maire reçoivent 30 % de subventions à l'investissement en plus lorsque l'homme politique auquel il est lié entre au gouvernement, et une diminution de même ampleur lorsque le ministre quitte le gouvernement. Nous montrons que ces effets sont dus aux ministres qui participeront aux élections locales après leur passage au gouvernement central. En revanche, nous n'observons pas ces résultats dans les municipalités où les ministres ont vécu pendant leur enfance. Ces résultats indiquent que l'altruisme envers les amis d'enfance et la famille n'alimente pas le favoritisme et suggèrent que les perspectives électorales futures expliquent au moins un quart du favoritisme déclaré. La part restante peut être attribuée indistinctement à l'attachement sentimental ou au favoritisme politique au sens large.</p> </span> <div class="publications-hal-list-item__informations"> </div> <p class="publication is-primary publications-hal-list-item__publication"> <span class="publications-hal-list-item__publication-date"> <span class="publication-hal__number">Publié en</span> <time datetime="2024">2024</time> </span> </p> </div> </article> </li> <li class="list__item has-mb-5"> <article class="publications-hal-list-item"> <picture class="publications-hal-list-item__image" data-error-alt="Image cassée"> <img alt="" class="lazy lazyload" data-error-src="data:image/svg+xml,%3Csvg%20xmlns%3D%22http%3A%2F%2Fwww.w3.org%2F2000%2Fsvg%22%20width%3D%22210%22%20height%3D%22210%22%20viewBow%3D%220%200%20210%20210%22%20%20%2F%3E" data-src="https://www.parisschoolofeconomics.eu/app/uploads/2024/08/ico-working-paper.svg" src="data:image/svg+xml,%3Csvg%20xmlns%3D%22http%3A%2F%2Fwww.w3.org%2F2000%2Fsvg%22%20width%3D%22210%22%20height%3D%22210%22%20viewBow%3D%220%200%20210%20210%22%20%20%2F%3E" width="210" height="210"> </picture> <div class="publications-hal-list-item__content"> <span class="item-title js-title-tag-to-change publications-hal-list-item__title"> <a href="https://www.parisschoolofeconomics.eu/publications-hal/mesurer-lavortement-selectif-en-fonction-du-sexe-combien-de-femmes-avortent/" class="publications-hal-list-item__title-link"> <span class="underline">Mesurer l'avortement sélectif en fonction du sexe : Combien de femmes avortent ?</span> </a> <span class="publications-hal-list-item__subtitle">Article dans une revue</span><span class="sr-only">:</span></span> <div class="publications-hal-list-item__informations"> <span class="publications-hal-list-item__informations__item"> <span class="far fa-user-circle" aria-hidden="true"></span> <span class="publications-hal-list-item__informations-text"> Auteur(s) : Philipp Ketz </span> </span> <span class="publications-hal-list-item__informations__item"> <span class="fa-regular fa-newspaper" aria-hidden="true"></span> <span class="publications-hal-list-item__informations-text">Revue : Journal of Development Economics</span> </span> </div> <p class="publication is-primary publications-hal-list-item__publication"> <span class="publications-hal-list-item__publication-date"> <span class="publication-hal__number">Publié en</span> <time datetime="2024">2024</time> </span> </p> </div> </article> </li> <li class="list__item has-mb-5"> <article class="publications-hal-list-item"> <picture class="publications-hal-list-item__image" data-error-alt="Image cassée"> <img alt="" class="lazy lazyload" data-error-src="data:image/svg+xml,%3Csvg%20xmlns%3D%22http%3A%2F%2Fwww.w3.org%2F2000%2Fsvg%22%20width%3D%22210%22%20height%3D%22210%22%20viewBow%3D%220%200%20210%20210%22%20%20%2F%3E" data-src="https://www.parisschoolofeconomics.eu/app/uploads/2024/08/ico-working-paper.svg" src="data:image/svg+xml,%3Csvg%20xmlns%3D%22http%3A%2F%2Fwww.w3.org%2F2000%2Fsvg%22%20width%3D%22210%22%20height%3D%22210%22%20viewBow%3D%220%200%20210%20210%22%20%20%2F%3E" width="210" height="210"> </picture> <div class="publications-hal-list-item__content"> <span class="item-title js-title-tag-to-change publications-hal-list-item__title"> <a href="https://www.parisschoolofeconomics.eu/publications-hal/je-ne-peux-pas-oublier-u-le-chomage-a-vie-et-le-bien-etre-a-la-retraite/" class="publications-hal-list-item__title-link"> <span class="underline">Je ne peux pas oublier U : Le chômage à vie et le bien-être à la retraite</span> </a> <span class="publications-hal-list-item__subtitle">Pré-publication, Document de travail</span><span class="sr-only">:</span> <p class="item-teaser publications-hal-list-item__teaser">Il est bien connu que le chômage laisse des traces après le retour à l'emploi, mais cet effet de cicatrisation persiste-t-il même après la retraite ? Nous analysons les données européennes sur les retraités du panel SHARE et montrons que le bien-être des retraités continue de refléter le chômage qu'ils ont connu au cours de leur vie active. Ces effets de cicatrisation sont un peu moins importants pour les retraités les plus âgés, mais plus importants pour ceux qui avaient sans doute des attentes plus élevées à l'égard du marché du travail lorsqu'ils étaient actifs. La baisse du bien-être due au chômage de toute une vie ne reflète pas la baisse du revenu de retraite. Cette cicatrice à long terme pour ceux qui ont quitté le marché du travail souligne que les corrélations contemporaines sous-estiment considérablement le coût du chômage en termes de bien-être.</p> </span> <div class="publications-hal-list-item__informations"> <span class="publications-hal-list-item__informations__item"> <span class="far fa-user-circle" aria-hidden="true"></span> <span class="publications-hal-list-item__informations-text"> Auteur(s) : Andrew Clark </span> </span> </div> <p class="publication is-primary publications-hal-list-item__publication"> <span class="publications-hal-list-item__publication-date"> <span class="publication-hal__number">Publié en</span> <time datetime="2024">2024</time> </span> </p> </div> </article> </li> <li class="list__item has-mb-5"> <article class="publications-hal-list-item"> <picture class="publications-hal-list-item__image" data-error-alt="Image cassée"> <img alt="" class="lazy lazyload" data-error-src="data:image/svg+xml,%3Csvg%20xmlns%3D%22http%3A%2F%2Fwww.w3.org%2F2000%2Fsvg%22%20width%3D%22210%22%20height%3D%22210%22%20viewBow%3D%220%200%20210%20210%22%20%20%2F%3E" data-src="https://www.parisschoolofeconomics.eu/app/uploads/2024/08/ico-working-paper.svg" src="data:image/svg+xml,%3Csvg%20xmlns%3D%22http%3A%2F%2Fwww.w3.org%2F2000%2Fsvg%22%20width%3D%22210%22%20height%3D%22210%22%20viewBow%3D%220%200%20210%20210%22%20%20%2F%3E" width="210" height="210"> </picture> <div class="publications-hal-list-item__content"> <span class="item-title js-title-tag-to-change publications-hal-list-item__title"> <a href="https://www.parisschoolofeconomics.eu/publications-hal/le-role-de-la-banque-dans-le-jeu-et-le-hold-up-par-des-entreprises-illiquides-negociation-strategique-incoherence-dynamique-et-contraintes-de-credit/" class="publications-hal-list-item__title-link"> <span class="underline">Le rôle de la banque dans le jeu et le hold-up par des entreprises illiquides : négociation stratégique, incohérence dynamique et contraintes de crédit</span> </a> <span class="publications-hal-list-item__subtitle">Pré-publication, Document de travail</span><span class="sr-only">:</span> <p class="item-teaser publications-hal-list-item__teaser">La littérature sur les prêts analyse le problème du hold-up du point de vue de l'information monopolistique de la banque, mais si seule l'entreprise peut rembourser entièrement la banque, la relation de prêt est en fait un monopole bilatéral. Par conséquent, si une entreprise emprunte à court terme pour financer un projet à long terme, des négociations non coopératives ont lieu au moment du renouvellement du prêt. Si, quelle que soit la qualité de l'entreprise en seconde période, la partition d'équilibre parfait dérivée de ce marchandage accorde à la banque moins que la condition de seuil de rentabilité, elle refuse de prêter ex ante.</p> <p>C'est-à-dire que la rétention attendue par l'entreprise induit des contraintes de crédit. Si l'entreprise obtient plus en faisant défaut qu'en empruntant à une autre banque, la banque initiale ne peut pas atteindre le seuil de rentabilité en demandant la faillite de l'entreprise ; autrement dit, la banque dispose d'une option externe faible. Dans ce cas, même si cette option est contraignante, le résultat précédent concernant les contraintes de crédit reste valable. Un tel hold-up par des entreprises illiquides fournit une nouvelle base pour les prêts à long terme destinés à financer des projets à long terme.</p> <p style="text-align : justify ;">La banque a une option externe faible.</p> </span> <div class="publications-hal-list-item__informations"> <span class="publications-hal-list-item__informations__item"> <span class="far fa-user-circle" aria-hidden="true"></span> <span class="publications-hal-list-item__informations-text"> Auteur(s) : Louis-Marie Harpedanne de Belleville </span> </span> </div> <p class="publication is-primary publications-hal-list-item__publication"> <span class="publications-hal-list-item__publication-date"> <span class="publication-hal__number">Publié en</span> <time datetime="2024">2024</time> </span> </p> </div> </article> </li> <li class="list__item has-mb-5"> <article class="publications-hal-list-item"> <picture class="publications-hal-list-item__image" data-error-alt="Image cassée"> <img alt="" class="lazy lazyload" data-error-src="data:image/svg+xml,%3Csvg%20xmlns%3D%22http%3A%2F%2Fwww.w3.org%2F2000%2Fsvg%22%20width%3D%22210%22%20height%3D%22210%22%20viewBow%3D%220%200%20210%20210%22%20%20%2F%3E" data-src="https://www.parisschoolofeconomics.eu/app/uploads/2024/08/ico-working-paper.svg" src="data:image/svg+xml,%3Csvg%20xmlns%3D%22http%3A%2F%2Fwww.w3.org%2F2000%2Fsvg%22%20width%3D%22210%22%20height%3D%22210%22%20viewBow%3D%220%200%20210%20210%22%20%20%2F%3E" width="210" height="210"> </picture> <div class="publications-hal-list-item__content"> <span class="item-title js-title-tag-to-change publications-hal-list-item__title"> <a href="https://www.parisschoolofeconomics.eu/publications-hal/frailty-indicator-over-the-adult-life-cycle-as-a-predictor-of-healthcare-expenditure-and-mortality-in-the-short-to-midterm/" class="publications-hal-list-item__title-link"> <span class="underline">Frailty Indicator over the Adult Life Cycle as a Predictor of Healthcare Expenditure and Mortality in the Short to Midterm</span> </a> <span class="publications-hal-list-item__subtitle">Article dans une revue</span><span class="sr-only">:</span> <p class="item-teaser publications-hal-list-item__teaser">Contexte : L'évaluation de la fragilité à partir de l'âge moyen offre des indications précieuses pour prédire les dépenses de santé tout au long du cycle de vie. Objectifs : Cet article examine l'utilisation de la fragilité physique comme indicateur de la demande de soins de santé dans tous les groupes d'âge. L'originalité de ce travail est d'étendre l'analyse des indicateurs de fragilité au-delà de la focalisation habituelle sur les individus de moins de 50 ans pour inclure les personnes d'âge moyen et plus âgées. Méthodes : Pour cette étude, nous avons utilisé une base de données où la fragilité a été mesurée en 2012 dans un échantillon de personnes âgées de 15 à plus de 90 ans. Ces personnes ont été suivies pour leurs dépenses de santé de 2012 à 2016. Résultats : Parmi l'échantillon de 6928 individus, la fragilité en 2012 a entraîné une augmentation statistiquement significative des coûts au niveau de 5% pour la population âgée de 15 à 65 ans. Nous avons appliqué des modèles de régression linéaire multiniveaux avec des effets fixes sur l'année, en contrôlant les facteurs démographiques, le niveau d'éducation, la précarité, les dimensions sociales, les facteurs liés au mode de vie (par exemple, la consommation de légumes), l'activité physique, le bien-être émotionnel et les antécédents médicaux. Un test d'Hausman a été effectué pour valider le choix du modèle. Pour l'analyse des taux de mortalité, des modèles de Cox ont été utilisés. Conclusions : Nos résultats démontrent que la fragilité physique fournit des informations précieuses pour comprendre son impact sur les dépenses de santé. L'effet de la fragilité sur la mortalité est particulièrement significatif pour la population âgée. En outre, la fragilité est un facteur prédictif des coûts des soins de santé, non seulement chez les personnes âgées, mais aussi tout au long du cycle de vie.</p> </span> <div class="publications-hal-list-item__informations"> <span class="publications-hal-list-item__informations__item"> <span class="far fa-user-circle" aria-hidden="true"></span> <span class="publications-hal-list-item__informations-text"> Auteur(s) : Carine Milcent </span> </span> <span class="publications-hal-list-item__informations__item"> <span class="fa-regular fa-newspaper" aria-hidden="true"></span> <span class="publications-hal-list-item__informations-text">Revue : Healthcare</span> </span> </div> <p class="publication is-primary publications-hal-list-item__publication"> <span class="publications-hal-list-item__publication-date"> <span class="publication-hal__number">Publié en</span> <time datetime="2024">2024</time> </span> </p> </div> </article> </li> <li class="list__item has-mb-5"> <article class="publications-hal-list-item"> <picture class="publications-hal-list-item__image" data-error-alt="Image cassée"> <img alt="" class="lazy lazyload" data-error-src="data:image/svg+xml,%3Csvg%20xmlns%3D%22http%3A%2F%2Fwww.w3.org%2F2000%2Fsvg%22%20width%3D%22210%22%20height%3D%22210%22%20viewBow%3D%220%200%20210%20210%22%20%20%2F%3E" data-src="https://www.parisschoolofeconomics.eu/app/uploads/2024/08/ico-working-paper.svg" src="data:image/svg+xml,%3Csvg%20xmlns%3D%22http%3A%2F%2Fwww.w3.org%2F2000%2Fsvg%22%20width%3D%22210%22%20height%3D%22210%22%20viewBow%3D%220%200%20210%20210%22%20%20%2F%3E" width="210" height="210"> </picture> <div class="publications-hal-list-item__content"> <span class="item-title js-title-tag-to-change publications-hal-list-item__title"> <a href="https://www.parisschoolofeconomics.eu/publications-hal/twenty-years-of-job-quality-in-oecd-countries-more-good-news/" class="publications-hal-list-item__title-link"> <span class="underline">Twenty Years of Job Quality in OECD Countries: More Good News?</span> </a> <span class="publications-hal-list-item__subtitle">Pré-publication, Document de travail</span><span class="sr-only">:</span> <p class="item-teaser publications-hal-list-item__teaser">La répartition de la qualité de l'emploi entre les travailleurs et l'évolution de la qualité de l'emploi dans le temps peuvent être reflétées par diverses mesures des résultats de l'emploi, ou par des scores de satisfaction professionnelle à un seul élément. Ce document adopte les deux approches pour établir l'évolution de la qualité de l'emploi sur une période allant du milieu des années 1990 au milieu des années 2010 dans 13 pays de l'OCDE, en utilisant les données des trois derniers modules de l'ISSP sur l'orientation du travail. L'augmentation de la satisfaction au travail entre 1997 et 2005 s'est poursuivie jusqu'en 2015, malgré la grande récession de 2008. Cette amélioration se retrouve également dans la plupart des domaines liés aux résultats de l'emploi, malgré certains signes d'un travail plus difficile et plus stressant. Chaque année, les travailleurs ont déclaré que la sécurité de l'emploi était l'aspect le plus important de leur travail, et le pourcentage de travailleurs ayant un emploi sûr a augmenté au fil du temps. La dispersion de la satisfaction au travail a légèrement augmenté, mais les bonnes nouvelles concernant l'amélioration de la qualité de l'emploi sur une période de 20 ans ne semblent pas être atténuées par des changements importants dans son inégalité.</p> </span> <div class="publications-hal-list-item__informations"> <span class="publications-hal-list-item__informations__item"> <span class="far fa-user-circle" aria-hidden="true"></span> <span class="publications-hal-list-item__informations-text"> Auteur(s) : Andrew Clark </span> </span> </div> <p class="publication is-primary publications-hal-list-item__publication"> <span class="publications-hal-list-item__publication-date"> <span class="publication-hal__number">Publié en</span> <time datetime="2024">2024</time> </span> </p> </div> </article> </li> <li class="list__item has-mb-5"> <article class="publications-hal-list-item"> <picture class="publications-hal-list-item__image" data-error-alt="Image cassée"> <img alt="" class="lazy lazyload" data-error-src="data:image/svg+xml,%3Csvg%20xmlns%3D%22http%3A%2F%2Fwww.w3.org%2F2000%2Fsvg%22%20width%3D%22210%22%20height%3D%22210%22%20viewBow%3D%220%200%20210%20210%22%20%20%2F%3E" data-src="https://www.parisschoolofeconomics.eu/app/uploads/2024/08/ico-working-paper.svg" src="data:image/svg+xml,%3Csvg%20xmlns%3D%22http%3A%2F%2Fwww.w3.org%2F2000%2Fsvg%22%20width%3D%22210%22%20height%3D%22210%22%20viewBow%3D%220%200%20210%20210%22%20%20%2F%3E" width="210" height="210"> </picture> <div class="publications-hal-list-item__content"> <span class="item-title js-title-tag-to-change publications-hal-list-item__title"> <a href="https://www.parisschoolofeconomics.eu/publications-hal/economie-comportementale-et-psychologie-clinique-face-aux-defis-contemporains-entretien-avec-pr-nicolas-jacquemet/" class="publications-hal-list-item__title-link"> <span class="underline">Économie comportementale et psychologie clinique face aux défis contemporains. Entretien avec Pr Nicolas Jacquemet</span> </a> <span class="publications-hal-list-item__subtitle">Article dans une revue</span><span class="sr-only">:</span></span> <div class="publications-hal-list-item__informations"> <span class="publications-hal-list-item__informations__item"> <span class="far fa-user-circle" aria-hidden="true"></span> <span class="publications-hal-list-item__informations-text"> Auteur(s) : Nicolas Jacquemet </span> </span> <span class="publications-hal-list-item__informations__item"> <span class="fa-regular fa-newspaper" aria-hidden="true"></span> <span class="publications-hal-list-item__informations-text">Revue : In Analysis</span> </span> </div> <p class="publication is-primary publications-hal-list-item__publication"> <span class="publications-hal-list-item__publication-date"> <span class="publication-hal__number">Publié en</span> <time datetime="2024">2024</time> </span> </p> </div> </article> </li> <li class="list__item has-mb-5"> <article class="publications-hal-list-item"> <picture class="publications-hal-list-item__image" data-error-alt="Image cassée"> <img alt="" class="lazy lazyload" data-error-src="data:image/svg+xml,%3Csvg%20xmlns%3D%22http%3A%2F%2Fwww.w3.org%2F2000%2Fsvg%22%20width%3D%22210%22%20height%3D%22210%22%20viewBow%3D%220%200%20210%20210%22%20%20%2F%3E" data-src="https://www.parisschoolofeconomics.eu/app/uploads/2024/08/ico-working-paper.svg" src="data:image/svg+xml,%3Csvg%20xmlns%3D%22http%3A%2F%2Fwww.w3.org%2F2000%2Fsvg%22%20width%3D%22210%22%20height%3D%22210%22%20viewBow%3D%220%200%20210%20210%22%20%20%2F%3E" width="210" height="210"> </picture> <div class="publications-hal-list-item__content"> <span class="item-title js-title-tag-to-change publications-hal-list-item__title"> <span class="theme is-large publications-hal-list-item__category"> Forthcoming </span> <a href="https://www.parisschoolofeconomics.eu/publications-hal/looking-for-the-bright-side-of-the-china-syndrome-rising-export-opportunities-and-life-satisfaction-in-china/" class="publications-hal-list-item__title-link"> <span class="underline">Looking for the Bright Side of the China Syndrome: Rising Export Opportunities and Life Satisfaction in China</span> </a> <span class="publications-hal-list-item__subtitle">Article dans une revue</span><span class="sr-only">:</span> <p class="item-teaser publications-hal-list-item__teaser">Looking for the Bright Side of the China Syndrome : L'augmentation des opportunités d'exportation et la satisfaction de la vie en Chine</p> </span> <div class="publications-hal-list-item__informations"> <span class="publications-hal-list-item__informations__item"> <span class="far fa-user-circle" aria-hidden="true"></span> <span class="publications-hal-list-item__informations-text"> Auteur(s) : Sandra Poncet </span> </span> <span class="publications-hal-list-item__informations__item"> <span class="fa-regular fa-newspaper" aria-hidden="true"></span> <span class="publications-hal-list-item__informations-text">Revue : World Bank Economic Review</span> </span> </div> </div> </article> </li> <li class="list__item has-mb-5"> <article class="publications-hal-list-item"> <picture class="publications-hal-list-item__image" data-error-alt="Image cassée"> <img alt="" class="lazy lazyload" data-error-src="data:image/svg+xml,%3Csvg%20xmlns%3D%22http%3A%2F%2Fwww.w3.org%2F2000%2Fsvg%22%20width%3D%22210%22%20height%3D%22210%22%20viewBow%3D%220%200%20210%20210%22%20%20%2F%3E" data-src="https://www.parisschoolofeconomics.eu/app/uploads/2024/08/ico-working-paper.svg" src="data:image/svg+xml,%3Csvg%20xmlns%3D%22http%3A%2F%2Fwww.w3.org%2F2000%2Fsvg%22%20width%3D%22210%22%20height%3D%22210%22%20viewBow%3D%220%200%20210%20210%22%20%20%2F%3E" width="210" height="210"> </picture> <div class="publications-hal-list-item__content"> <span class="item-title js-title-tag-to-change publications-hal-list-item__title"> <a href="https://www.parisschoolofeconomics.eu/publications-hal/trade-and-diplomacy-economic-determinants-of-international-cooperation-agreements-and-its-effect-on-international-trade-in-the-post-world-war-ii-era-1945-2022/" class="publications-hal-list-item__title-link"> <span class="underline">Trade and diplomacy Economic determinants of international cooperation agreements and its effect on international trade in the post World War II era: 1945-2022</span> </a> <span class="publications-hal-list-item__subtitle">Pré-publication, Document de travail</span><span class="sr-only">:</span> <p class="item-teaser publications-hal-list-item__teaser">Nous étudions les déterminants de la coopération internationale et son effet sur le commerce. Nous nous appuyons sur une base de données unique de 31 982 accords de coopération internationale (ACI) signés entre 1945 et 2022 par 193 pays. En estimant des équations de gravité bilatérales, nous constatons que le commerce suit le drapeau : Les ACI augmentent les exportations bilatérales d'environ 1 à 3 %, avec des effets plus marqués pour les relations Sud-Sud. Nous traitons l'endogénéité potentielle par une approche de panel et une variable instrumentale qui exploite la structure de réseau des relations internationales. En outre, à l'aide de LPM, nous constatons que les forces de gravité expliquent les paires de pays qui entrent dans un ACI. Plus important encore, nous constatons que les ACI servent de tremplin vers les accords commerciaux régionaux, confirmant ainsi une étape précédente de la théorie de l'intégration économique de Balassa (1961). Nos résultats jettent un nouvel éclairage sur le lien entre les relations internationales et le commerce et contribuent au débat actuel sur le friendshoring.</p> </span> <div class="publications-hal-list-item__informations"> </div> <p class="publication is-primary publications-hal-list-item__publication"> <span class="publications-hal-list-item__publication-date"> <span class="publication-hal__number">Publié en</span> <time datetime="2024">2024</time> </span> </p> </div> </article> </li> <li class="list__item has-mb-5"> <article class="publications-hal-list-item"> <picture class="publications-hal-list-item__image" data-error-alt="Image cassée"> <img alt="" class="lazy lazyload" data-error-src="data:image/svg+xml,%3Csvg%20xmlns%3D%22http%3A%2F%2Fwww.w3.org%2F2000%2Fsvg%22%20width%3D%22210%22%20height%3D%22210%22%20viewBow%3D%220%200%20210%20210%22%20%20%2F%3E" data-src="https://www.parisschoolofeconomics.eu/app/uploads/2024/08/ico-working-paper.svg" src="data:image/svg+xml,%3Csvg%20xmlns%3D%22http%3A%2F%2Fwww.w3.org%2F2000%2Fsvg%22%20width%3D%22210%22%20height%3D%22210%22%20viewBow%3D%220%200%20210%20210%22%20%20%2F%3E" width="210" height="210"> </picture> <div class="publications-hal-list-item__content"> <span class="item-title js-title-tag-to-change publications-hal-list-item__title"> <a href="https://www.parisschoolofeconomics.eu/publications-hal/does-feasibility-explain-the-unequal-development-of-working-from-home/" class="publications-hal-list-item__title-link"> <span class="underline">Does Feasibility Explain the Unequal Development of Working From Home?</span> </a> <span class="publications-hal-list-item__subtitle">Pré-publication, Document de travail</span><span class="sr-only">:</span> <p class="item-teaser publications-hal-list-item__teaser">En utilisant de riches enquêtes historiques sur les tâches professionnelles et des techniques avancées d'apprentissage automatique, nous étudions quels emplois peuvent être déplacés du bureau vers le domicile sur trois décennies en France.</p> <p>La part des emplois qui peuvent être effectués à domicile a augmenté régulièrement de 14% en 1991 à 45% en 2021. Dans le même temps, le travail à domicile effectif (TSD) est resté limité à moins d'un cinquième de son plein potentiel avant la crise de Covid-19 et reste inférieur à celui-ci en 2021.</p><p>La croissance du TSD n'est largement pas liée à l'évolution des tâches professionnelles, ce qui implique que les principaux obstacles au TSD n'ont pas été des contraintes techniques. Les employés peu qualifiés, en particulier, ont des emplois qui sont depuis longtemps largement télétravaillables, mais ils télétravaillaient à peine avant la crise de Covid-19 et sont restés en dessous de 50 % de leur plein potentiel pendant cette crise. Cette tendance ne s'explique pas par des différences dans le désir des travailleurs de télétravailler. Cela implique que la grande inégalité bien connue dans l'accès au télétravail le long de la distribution des salaires ne peut pas être attribuée uniquement aux contraintes de faisabilité et est potentiellement inefficace.</p> </span> <div class="publications-hal-list-item__informations"> <span class="publications-hal-list-item__informations__item"> <span class="far fa-user-circle" aria-hidden="true"></span> <span class="publications-hal-list-item__informations-text"> Auteur(s) : Thomas Breda </span> </span> </div> <p class="publication is-primary publications-hal-list-item__publication"> <span class="publications-hal-list-item__publication-date"> <span class="publication-hal__number">Publié en</span> <time datetime="2024">2024</time> </span> </p> </div> </article> </li> <li class="list__item has-mb-5"> <article class="publications-hal-list-item"> <picture class="publications-hal-list-item__image" data-error-alt="Image cassée"> <img alt="" class="lazy lazyload" data-error-src="data:image/svg+xml,%3Csvg%20xmlns%3D%22http%3A%2F%2Fwww.w3.org%2F2000%2Fsvg%22%20width%3D%22210%22%20height%3D%22210%22%20viewBow%3D%220%200%20210%20210%22%20%20%2F%3E" data-src="https://www.parisschoolofeconomics.eu/app/uploads/2024/08/ico-working-paper.svg" src="data:image/svg+xml,%3Csvg%20xmlns%3D%22http%3A%2F%2Fwww.w3.org%2F2000%2Fsvg%22%20width%3D%22210%22%20height%3D%22210%22%20viewBow%3D%220%200%20210%20210%22%20%20%2F%3E" width="210" height="210"> </picture> <div class="publications-hal-list-item__content"> <span class="item-title js-title-tag-to-change publications-hal-list-item__title"> <a href="https://www.parisschoolofeconomics.eu/publications-hal/central-banks-and-the-absorption-of-international-shocks-1891-2019/" class="publications-hal-list-item__title-link"> <span class="underline">Central banks and the absorption of international shocks (1891-2019)</span> </a> <span class="publications-hal-list-item__subtitle">Pré-publication, Document de travail</span><span class="sr-only">:</span> <p class="item-teaser publications-hal-list-item__teaser">Nous étudions comment les banques centrales ont utilisé leur bilan pour absorber les chocs monétaires internationaux depuis la fin du XIXe siècle, retrouvant ainsi une certaine autonomie en matière de politique monétaire dans un contexte d'ouverture financière. Si la parité des taux d'intérêt non couverte ne se vérifie pas, une augmentation du taux d'intérêt international principal peut entraîner une hausse des taux d'intérêt nationaux dans les régimes de taux de change fixes et flottants. Les banques centrales peuvent partiellement protéger les taux d'intérêt nationaux à court terme de cette hausse en augmentant les actifs nationaux. Dans le cas d'un taux de change fixe, cette mesure s'ajoute à la stérilisation des interventions sur le marché des changes. La prise en compte de la réaction des bilans des banques centrales à un choc international exogène permet d'éclairer certains comportements déroutants des taux d'intérêt et des taux de change à travers les régimes monétaires internationaux au cours de l'histoire. Cette étude est basée sur un nouvel ensemble de données mensuelles de bilans de banques centrales, de variables macroéconomiques et financières pour 23 pays depuis 1891.</p> </span> <div class="publications-hal-list-item__informations"> <span class="publications-hal-list-item__informations__item"> <span class="far fa-user-circle" aria-hidden="true"></span> <span class="publications-hal-list-item__informations-text"> Auteur(s) : Éric Monnet </span> </span> </div> <p class="publication is-primary publications-hal-list-item__publication"> <span class="publications-hal-list-item__publication-date"> <span class="publication-hal__number">Publié en</span> <time datetime="2024">2024</time> </span> </p> </div> </article> </li> <li class="list__item has-mb-5"> <article class="publications-hal-list-item"> <picture class="publications-hal-list-item__image" data-error-alt="Image cassée"> <img alt="" class="lazy lazyload" data-error-src="data:image/svg+xml,%3Csvg%20xmlns%3D%22http%3A%2F%2Fwww.w3.org%2F2000%2Fsvg%22%20width%3D%22210%22%20height%3D%22210%22%20viewBow%3D%220%200%20210%20210%22%20%20%2F%3E" data-src="https://www.parisschoolofeconomics.eu/app/uploads/2024/08/ico-working-paper.svg" src="data:image/svg+xml,%3Csvg%20xmlns%3D%22http%3A%2F%2Fwww.w3.org%2F2000%2Fsvg%22%20width%3D%22210%22%20height%3D%22210%22%20viewBow%3D%220%200%20210%20210%22%20%20%2F%3E" width="210" height="210"> </picture> <div class="publications-hal-list-item__content"> <span class="item-title js-title-tag-to-change publications-hal-list-item__title"> <a href="https://www.parisschoolofeconomics.eu/publications-hal/who-gets-to-stay-how-mass-layoffs-reshape-firms-skills-structure/" class="publications-hal-list-item__title-link"> <span class="underline">Who gets to stay? How mass layoffs reshape firms' skills structure</span> </a> <span class="publications-hal-list-item__subtitle">Pré-publication, Document de travail</span><span class="sr-only">:</span> <p class="item-teaser publications-hal-list-item__teaser">Cet article conteste la vision traditionnelle des licenciements comme étant uniquement une réaction à des conditions économiques négatives. À l'aide d'enquêtes et de données administratives françaises, nous montrons comment les entreprises utilisent stratégiquement les licenciements collectifs pour restructurer la composition de leur main-d'œuvre. Tout d'abord, nous cherchons à savoir si les entreprises utilisent les licenciements pour modifier leurs besoins en compétences. En analysant à la fois les entreprises licenciées et celles qui ne le sont pas, nous constatons que les entreprises augmentent de manière significative les exigences en matière de compétences sociales tout en diminuant la dépendance à l'égard des compétences manuelles et cognitives après les licenciements. Cela suggère un remodelage prémédité de la main-d'œuvre plutôt qu'une pratique de réduction des coûts. Deuxièmement, nous étudions les facteurs qui influencent la sélection en vue d'un déplacement pendant les licenciements. Nous nous concentrons sur trois aspects clés : l'inadéquation des compétences, la qualité relative des travailleurs et la perception du coût monétaire. Nos résultats mettent en évidence le rôle significatif de l'inadéquation des compétences et de la qualité des travailleurs dans la détermination des licenciements, ce qui suggère que les entreprises sélectionnent activement en fonction de leurs besoins stratégiques. En révélant la nature stratégique des licenciements collectifs et leur impact sur la composition des compétences et la sélection des travailleurs, cet article apporte des éléments précieux à la compréhension de l'ajustement de la main-d'œuvre. Ces informations sont utiles pour l'élaboration des politiques.</p> </span> <div class="publications-hal-list-item__informations"> <span class="publications-hal-list-item__informations__item"> <span class="far fa-user-circle" aria-hidden="true"></span> <span class="publications-hal-list-item__informations-text"> Auteur(s) : David Margolis </span> </span> </div> <p class="publication is-primary publications-hal-list-item__publication"> <span class="publications-hal-list-item__publication-date"> <span class="publication-hal__number">Publié en</span> <time datetime="2024">2024</time> </span> </p> </div> </article> </li> </ul> <nav class="pager" role="navigation" aria-label="Pagination"> <ul class="pager__listitems"> <li class="pager__item is-prev" aria-hidden="true"> <span class="pager__link"> <span class="pager__icon" aria-hidden="true"></span> <span class="pager__text">Précédent</span> </span> </li> <li class="pager__item"> <span class="pager__link" aria-current="page"> <span 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