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Mysteel:1月市场进入调整期 铜价扰动因素不减-我的钢铁网

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</head> <body data="//youse.mysteel.com" breed="020101"> <div class="page-group"> <div class="page page-current"> <!-- 头部 --> <header class="bar bar-nav"> <hgroup> <div class="pull-left logoCon"> <a href="https://m.mysteel.com/" class="logo" external></a> <a href="//m.steelphone.com/xz/?fr=01163" class="app-enter-logo"></a> </div> <h1 class="title">主编视角</h1> <a href="//m.mysteel.com/nav.html" external class="app-search"></a> <span class="top-login-state"> <a href="javascript:;" onclick="window.location.href='https://passport.mysteel.com/m/?site=abc&location='+encodeURIComponent('公用头部')+'&callback='+encodeURI(document.location.href)" external class="app-login calabash h-login">登录/注册</a> <a href="javascript:;" onclick="window.location.href='http://passport.mysteel.com/logout.jsp?site=mysteel&callback='+encodeURI(document.location.href)" external class="app-login" style="display:none;">退出</a> <a href="javascript:;" onclick="window.location.href='https://passport.mysteel.com/m/switch-account.html?site=mysteel&callback='+encodeURI(document.location.href)+'&location='+encodeURIComponent('公用头部')" external class="app-login" style="display:none;">切换账号</a> </span> </hgroup> </header> <!-- 主体 --> <div class="content"> <div class="a-banner"> <a external rel="nofollow" href="https://m.steelphone.com/share/invite/#/invite?userId=ge2dkn2xg55a&inviteSource=118&uniqueMark=&poster=&source=M站-文章详细页" class="swiper-slide-link" style="display: block; position: relative; width: 100%;"> <img src="//img01.mysteelcdn.com/gg/uploaded/M1_750x90app__20170425.jpg?v=202405281432" alt="" display: block; width: 100%; margin: 0;> <p style="position: absolute; right: 0; bottom: 0; width: 26px; height: 14px; z-index: 12; background: url(//a.mysteelcdn.com/common/3.0/leftbottom_new2.png) 100% 0% no-repeat;"> </p> </a> </div> <div id="mycity" class="clearfix"> <ul class="clearfix"> <li><a href="https://m.mymetal.net/market/p-968-----0201-0--------1.html" onclick="showLog('有色-文章详细页','铜')" external>铜价格</a></li> <li><a href="https://m.mymetal.net/market/p-968-----0202-0--------1.html" onclick="showLog('有色-文章详细页','铝')" external>铝价格</a></li> <li><a href="https://m.mymetal.net/market/p-968-----0203-0--------1.html" onclick="showLog('有色-文章详细页','铅')" external>铅价格</a></li> <li><a href="https://m.mymetal.net/market/p-968-----0204-0--------1.html" onclick="showLog('有色-文章详细页','锌')" external>锌价格</a></li> </ul> </div> <div class="h-nav"> <a href="https://m.mymetal.net" rel="nofollow" external>有色金属网</a> > <span>Mysteel:1月市场进入调整期 铜价扰动因素不减</span> </div> <h2 class="article-title" style="color:#000000">Mysteel:1月市场进入调整期 铜价扰动因素不减</h2> <p class="infor"> <span class='source'>2024-12-26 15:51</span> <span class="time" style='margin-right: 0.5rem'>来源:我的钢铁网</span> </p> <article class="article-text article-text_1"> <div data-val="4870" id="article-content"> <div id="text"> <p>进入2025年,市场进入新的篇章,新的长单协议执行、新的供需变化,<a href='https://youse.m.mysteel.com/tong/' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>铜价</a>也将迎来新的调整;1月作为2025年的开端,将有怎样的调整,价格是否还能再度回归上涨势头?</p> <p><span style="color: #023985;"><strong>一、<a href='https://youse.m.mysteel.com/tong/' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>铜</a>冶炼原料问题对铜产量的影响</strong></span></p> <p>2024年12月6日,敲定2025年<a href='https://youse.m.mysteel.com/tongjingkuang/' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>铜精矿</a>长单加工费Benchmark为21.25美元/吨与2.125美分/磅。2024年铜精矿加工费长单Benchmark则为80美元/吨与8.0美分/磅。同比下降73.1%。</p> <p style="text-align: center;"><img src="https://img08.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/youse/2024/12/26/1617561.png" width="522" height="295" /></p> <p style="text-align: right; margin: 0pt 0pt 0.0001pt; text-indent: 21pt; line-height: 150%;" align="right">数据来源:<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>Mysteel</a></p> <p>2024年12月26日,CSPT召开季度会议,敲定2025年第一季度铜精矿现货TC指导价为25美元/干吨,2.5美分/磅,环比下降40%,与2024年四季度相比呈明显下降趋势。</p> <p style="text-align: center;"><img src="https://img03.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/youse/2024/12/26/1617562.png" width="522" height="295" /></p> <p style="text-align: right; margin: 0pt 0pt 0.0001pt; text-indent: 21pt; line-height: 150%;" align="right">数据来源:Mysteel</p> <p>从铜精矿的长单价格来看,价格下降明显,尤其是年度长单价格对于国内多数冶炼厂而言均处于亏损状态,因此在这一背景下,铜冶炼厂的减产可能性将进一步放大。季度长单价格的基本处于国内主流冶炼厂的盈亏平衡线附近,但考虑到目前现货TC价格,实际能够提供的供给量存在一定的疑虑,国内铜精矿的供应依然偏紧,部分冶炼厂甚至有意采购远期货物,但报盘数量有限且价格并不理想。截至12月25日,Mysteel干净铜精矿TC报价为7.75美元/干吨,依然处于低位。</p> <p style="text-align: center;"><img src="https://img05.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/youse/2024/12/26/1617563.png" width="522" height="295" /></p> <p style="text-align: right; margin: 0pt 0pt 0.0001pt; text-indent: 21pt; line-height: 150%;" align="right">数据来源:Mysteel</p> <p>在原料紧张的背景下,国内冶炼厂产出也将面临难题,同时考虑到近期铜阳极供给量并不多,且部分货源早早被冶炼厂订购,铜阳极的采购难度较大。进一步压缩冶炼厂的原料储备空间。</p> <p style="text-align: center;"><img src="https://img01.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/youse/2024/12/26/1617564.png" width="522" height="295" /></p> <p style="text-align: right; margin: 0pt 0pt 0.0001pt; text-indent: 21pt; line-height: 150%;" align="right">数据来源:Mysteel</p> <p>从原料的视角来看,铜精矿原料储备的难度不小;但考虑到春节假期作为国内传统假期,冶炼厂往往很早就开始为假期做原料储备,且今年春节处于1月末,考虑到时间节点等问题,多数冶炼厂1月的原料储备早早便已经完成,因此对于1月产量的影响预期较小,预计1月同环比均有增长趋势。预计1月产量在103-104万吨,同比增加1-1.5%。</p> <p style="text-align: center;"><img src="https://img07.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/youse/2024/12/26/1617565.png" width="551" height="295" /></p> <p style="text-align: right; margin: 0pt 0pt 0.0001pt; text-indent: 21pt; line-height: 150%;" align="right">数据来源:Mysteel</p> <p style="margin: 0pt 0pt 0.0001pt; text-indent: 21pt; text-align: justify; line-height: 150%;"><strong><span style="color: #023985; font-weight: bold;">二、库存预计开启累库表现,但节前累库水平预期有限</span></strong></p> <p>根据Mysteel调研统计,截至12月26日,国内铜社会库存为10.17万吨,此前库存连续下降,直至12月26日当周库存才呈现一定的回升,但库存水平依然处于今年低位。</p> <p style="text-align: center;"><img src="https://img04.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/youse/2024/12/26/1617566.png" width="522" height="295" /></p> <p style="text-align: right;">数据来源:Mysteel</p> <p>库存下降主要是由于12月国内冶炼厂依然处于检修后的影响周期,加之市场需求表现不错,导致了国内的货源呈现入库少,出库多的情况;而进口窗口的持续打开,为进口铜货源流入提供了支持,12月进口表现依然不错,且其中不乏前期出口后回流的货源。从上海市场仓库反馈的情况来看,12月入库中平均近8成货物为进口货源。进口的表现也是导致近期保税区库存持续下降的原因之一,根据Mysteel调研统计,截至12月26日,国内铜保税区库存为1.78万吨,降至低点。</p> <p style="text-align: center;"><img src="https://img01.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/youse/2024/12/26/1617567.png" width="522" height="295" /></p> <p style="text-align: right;">数据来源:Mysteel</p> <p>从后续来看,1月随着元旦假期的影响,下游企业陆续进入检修调整期,加之年末清算对于市场交易的影响,国内库存将进入累库状态,但考虑到目前市场交易的情况以及部分下游企业的订单执行、在手订单数量,预计1月的累库表现相对有限,预计在1月中旬前累库在2-4万吨左右。</p> <p><strong><span style="color: #023985; font-weight: bold;">三、需求表现参差不齐,1月下游消费预计下滑</span></strong></p> <p>根据Mysteel调研统计,12月综合铜材产能利用率预计在64.78%,其中以<a href='https://youse.m.mysteel.com/tongguan/' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>铜管</a>、铜杆产业开工最为理想,铜管正处于需求旺季,而铜杆是由于前期待交付订单较高,企业交付压力明显所致。</p> <p style="text-align: center;"><img src="https://img05.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/youse/2024/12/26/1617568.png" width="522" height="295" /></p> <p style="margin: 0pt 0pt 0.0001pt; text-indent: 21pt; line-height: 150%; text-align: left;" align="right">数据来源:Mysteel</p> <p>目前需求表现参差不齐,有的下游产业早早进入停产收账阶段,因此产出表现有所下降,而至12月末,随着元旦假期和年末清算期的到来,一些下游企业也将陆续进行生产调整以待1月重启。从目前的情况来看,预计1月综合铜材产能利用率为64.38%,环比小幅下降,主要是假期导致的检修和放假的影响。</p> <p>需求端存在明显的预期差,如铜管市场得益于家电行业的需求,订单量表现不错,且1月本就是其传统旺季,因此1月有延续趋势。其他产业的品种多处于淡季,核心关键在于1月复产之后,企业对于假期的规划,形成了明显的预期差。目前来看,主要铜材企业依然会以稳定生产的节奏进行,中小企业可能会受限于需求问题而有一定的调整。</p> <p><strong><span style="color: #023985; font-weight: bold;">四、1月铜价预计高位震荡运行,多关注供需节奏变化</span></strong></p> <p>综上所述,1月基本面为价格提供的变化不同,供给端的扰动依然存在,不过考虑到执行问题,在原料不足、生产亏损的情况下供给上的扰动会更明显,同时,部分以铜阳极为原料,减少矿使用的“异样”减产落地难度较大,可能最终会反馈到整体产量上的下滑,进而进一步支撑铜价。1月库存预计小幅增加,需求相对稳定,只是需要担忧铜价阶段性上涨带来的市场心态变化。</p> <p>目前来看,1月铜价预计延续高位震荡的局面,不过考量到可能最终上下游企业的生产安排规划陆续落定,供需层面会有新的变化,诸如明确性的减产等,因此还需关注后续节奏变化,底部价格支撑依然明显,但需要关注宏观市场变化带来的影响。</p> <!--指标说明附件--> <br /> </div> </div> </article> <article class="content-block m-copyRight"> 资讯编辑:王鑫 021-26094467 </br> 资讯监督:全长煜 021-26093852 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