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中国国际期货：沪铜下跌动能不足-我的钢铁网
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<p><strong>“金九”结束后，在“银十”旺季支撑下，消费端虽然分化，但整体消费仍有一定韧性。基建发挥托底效应将确保电网投资增速平稳，空调产销步入淡季，以光伏及新能源汽车为代表的新兴领域需求将保持强劲。</strong></p> <p>9月中下旬，在多重利空施压下，沪<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-967-----0201-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>铜</a>展开大幅下挫行情。一方面，海外再度定义加息风险及美国政府面临史上最大规模“关门”危机，另一方面，股市表现不佳，市场情绪低迷。沪铜期价在下探至66980元/吨后，近日盘面出现企稳迹象。随着利空因素逐渐消化，预计后市沪铜有望迎来技术性反弹行情。</p> <p><strong>全球矿山供应宽松</strong></p> <p>全球铜矿干扰率低于市场预期，加工费高位运行，截至9月28日，进口<a href='https://m.mymetal.net/market/p-968-----020104-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>铜精矿</a>指数达到93.23美元/吨，铜矿产量保持增长预期。不过在新增产能投产制约下，今年海外精铜产量恢复空间有限。从铜主产国生产情况来看，7月智利铜产量为434089吨，环比减少5.2%；7月秘鲁铜产量同比增长17.7%，攀升至229728吨。</p> <p>世界金属统计局（WBMS）公布的最新数据报告显示，今年7月全球铜矿产量为181.64万吨，1—7月全球铜矿产量为1238.52万吨。2023年7月全球精炼铜产量为220.48万吨，消费量为215.95万吨，供应过剩4.53万吨。1—7月全球精炼铜产量为1573万吨，消费量为1557.32万吨，供应过剩15.68万吨。今年上半年部分新投铜矿产能落地，下半年全球铜矿仍有增量，全球铜精矿供应格局趋于宽松。目前非洲刚果和南美秘鲁等多个项目已进入投料生产以及产能爬坡的关键阶段，根据各矿企的新建、扩产计划，不考虑突发事件影响的情况下，预计2023年全球铜矿新投及扩建增量达84.15万吨，全球铜矿产量预计达到2266万吨，年度增速3%，增速稍有放缓。同时国际铜研究组织（ICSC）近期表示，全球铜市场将从2023 年的供需平衡过渡到明年的供应过剩。预计2024年产量将超过使用量46.7万吨，与ICSC4月份上次会议时预计的29.7万吨盈余相比，有明显上调。</p> <p><strong>四季度<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-967-----020101-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>电解铜</a>产量将高位运行</strong></p> <p>预计9月国内电解铜产量为98.61万吨，环比下降0.29%，同比上升8.5%。1—9月累计产量预计为846.02万吨，同比增加11.15%，。四季度有检修的冶炼厂并不多，再加上有前期检修的大厂要复产，预计四季度电解铜的产量持续维持在高位。</p> <p>今年1—8月中国精铜累计进口量215.85万吨，同比下跌8.77%。其中，8月精铜进口量为32.55万吨，同比增长3.18%，环比增长13.3%。8月精铜的进口国及地区主要来自刚果（金）、智利、俄罗斯、澳大利亚。8月份国内冶炼厂检修较少，且前期检修的冶炼厂陆续复产叠加新厂投产后产量的释放，冶炼厂产能逐步恢复，国内精铜有一定增量，而需求则相对平淡，对进口铜的需求较为有限，同时人民币汇率回落不利于进口。在俄铜长单持续流入的同时，三季度为非洲<a href='https://m.myagric.com/' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>农产品</a>发运季节，物流紧张使得非洲积压铜发货进程缓慢，预计四季度精铜进口量将有所恢复。</p> <p><strong>国内外铜库存表现分化</strong></p> <p>目前国内外库存处于分化状态，LME铜库存在近3个月振荡走高，上期所铜库存则处于近10个月来的低位。截至9月28日，LME、COMEX、SHFE合计库存22.98万吨，较2022年9月30日增加2.33万吨。目前全球总库存水平相对偏低对<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-967-----0201-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>铜价</a>有一定支撑。</p> <p>从国内电解铜社会库存表现来看， 9月末随下游备货呈现去库。国庆节前市场备货充足，部分炼厂提前出售节内现货，节假日接货不多，以长单为主。假期下游工厂停工，电解铜社会库存再度回升。截至10月7日，国内电解铜社会库存为9.36万吨，较9月28日增长2.05万吨，较去年同期增长1.09万吨。近期随着进口铜集中到港及入关带来供应压力，国内库存仍存在超季节性累积风险。</p> <p><strong>电网投资需求仍有韧性</strong></p> <p>2023年我国电网建设预计将加速，国家电网表示2023年投资额将超过5200亿元，再创历史新高。今年1—8月我国电网基本建设投资完成额为2705亿元，同比增长1.4%。完成了全年目标总量的52.02%，总体增速保持稳健。1—8月份全国主要发电企业电源工程完成投资4703亿元，同比增长46.6%。按往年数据，每年4—6月及11—12月为电力工程投资较为集中的时间，上游电力设备制造行业的订单也基本集中在此时间段。鉴于中央政治局会议奠定了下半年经济发展稳中求进的基调，尤其7—8月频繁出台政策鼓励新能源行业发展，预计电源电网投资在年底之前仍有增加预期。</p> <p>今年1—8月国内光伏发电新增装机容量达到1.13亿千瓦，同比增长约1.5倍，这也是中国光伏年新增装机首次超过1亿千瓦。其中，8月全国新增光伏装机量达16GW，同比增长137%。受益于新能源发电的快速发展，预计今年新投产的总发电装机以及非化石能源发电装机规模将再创新高。光伏在上游成本下降的刺激下，下半年装机需求较大，光伏年底前有望达到较高增速，对后期铜消费有一定的支撑作用。近期光伏行业协会将2023年中国光伏新增装机预测由前期预估的95G—120GW上调至120G—140GW。</p> <p>9月电线电缆企业开工率为88.05%，环比增长1.95个百分点。近期受铜价下跌及下游企业节前备货的提振，部分电线电缆企业的订单小幅增长，但多数中小型企业订单变化不大。分行业来看，电网类订单表现稳定，多家企业国庆假期未放假；同时正值光伏设备建设旺季时段，光伏类订单增长明显。</p> <p>宏观面上，美国就业增长势头强劲，美联储加息预期升温。美联储主席鲍威尔表态及最新点阵图释放鹰派信号，美联储11月加息概率升至50%，市场对美国经济硬着陆存在担忧。国内稳增长政策密集出台，推动经济稳中向好，多项宏观数据回暖，其中9月中国制造业PMI自4月以来重返荣枯线上方。基本面上，供给端，全球铜矿产能仍处于扩张周期，2023年全球铜矿新扩建项目较多，目前新投产矿山项目进展顺利，铜矿供应存在宽松预期。国内冶炼端产能在利润驱动下也具备增长空间，四季度国内各炼厂检修计划较少，单月可能超100万吨；需求端，“金九”结束后，在“银十”旺季支撑下，消费端虽然分化，整体消费仍有一定韧性。基建发挥托底效应将确保电网投资增速平稳，空调产销步入淡季，以光伏及新能源汽车为代表的新兴领域需求将保持强劲。总体而言，在经历前期大跌行情后，利空因素得到较大程度的消化，预计沪铜近期有望迎来弱势反弹行情，上方压力位68000元/吨，支撑位66700元/吨。</p> <!--指标说明附件--> <br /> </div> </div> </article> <article class="content-block m-copyRight"> 资讯编辑：王芳琴 021-66896877 </br> 资讯监督：乐卫扬 021-26093827 </br> 资讯投诉：陈杰 021-26093100 </br> </article> 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