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analyst in the world cites nuclear proliferation as one of the gravest potential threats to international security that we face. To prevent it, the international community has set up agencies like the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) - as part of the United Nations - to monitor states' nuclear programs. <br><br>However, in the case of Iran, the IAEA appears to have failed in its job. Shooting down Washington's hopes that the IAEA would find Iran in violation of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, the 35 leading nations of the Vienna-based UN atomic agency were expected on Thursday to make it clear that they are ready to back a West European resolution that will urge Tehran to continue cooperation in nuclear matters, while refraining from harshly condemning it for concealing parts of its nuclear program. <br><br>The United States has accused Iran of using its nuclear power program as a cover to develop nuclear weapons, and has called for stiff supervision of the country's activities. Iran says its program is solely for the peaceful generation of power. <br><br>To its credit, as the IAEA's newest report on Iran, a report circulated confidentially to governments, shows, when it comes to ferreting out the details of Tehran's covert program, the IAEA has done a commendable job. But the overall conclusion that emerges from reports about the contents of this report must lead to one conclusion: namely that the IAEA has struck out on the job and utterly failed to detect Iranian proliferation in a timely fashion. <br><br>As the report shows, Iran has secretly enriched uranium, made plutonium and hidden the process from observers for 18 years. It also conducted secret tests of its enrichment centrifuges using nuclear material. The report also cites Iran's deception of the IAEA and the international community through "limited and reactive cooperation" with inspectors and "changing and contradictory" stories about what it was doing. <br><br>Virtually every independent observer who has seen the report and assimilated the full scope of Iran's program has concluded that there can only be one explanation for that program: Iran was and still is building a nuclear weapon. And that conclusion validates charges that have been regularly made by concerned governments for a decade. <br><br>Yet the report's conclusions and content indicate that the IAEA has utterly missed the boat. It is not enough that a record of almost 20 years of Iranian obstruction and noncompliance eluded it until now. Worse yet is the fact that the report concludes that "there is no evidence that the previously undeclared nuclear material activities ... were related to a nuclear weapons program". As outside observers indicate, the evidence of Iran's sustained cheating of the IAEA and of foreign governments who have been charging this successfully lasted for 18 years and admits of only one conclusion, namely that Iran has been building a bomb and has now been caught. <br><br>Tellingly, much of what the IAEA found eluded foreign intelligence agencies who were most interested in Iran's nuclear activities. United States reports indicate that the IAEA findings went beyond what the Central Intelligence Agency or other US agencies were able to discover. Thus, Iran and presumably North Korea, whose program is supposedly more advanced than that of Iran, have been able to go the nuclear path and prevent foreign governments, too, from finding out what they are doing. <br><br>Another disturbing aspect of this report is that Iran freely admits that Pakistan, among others, helped it obtain the components needed for the vitally necessary centrifuges. We also know of extensive Russian, Chinese and North Korean assistance to Iran, much of which may still be continuing. North Korea and Pakistan have for some time been linked together as partners in proliferation with each state helping the other elude detection and obtain a nuclear weapon, in defiance of the Non-Proliferation Treaty in North Korea's case. <br><br>It is quite likely as well that major European firms assisted Iran in its program and had a pretty good idea of what was happening. We already know that many of these firms showed no qualms about helping Iraq attain the components of weapons of mass destruction even though they knew what was up. <br><br>Firstly, what these issues demonstrate is that the entire non-proliferation regime is in tatters. Secondly, they indicate that we cannot expect the IAEA or the UN to monitor all governments or to provide effective and verifiable inspection regimes. This is of major importance in any subsequent deal reached either with Iran or North Korea as there is no effective way of ensuring and verifying compliance once a treaty or agreement is signed. <br><br>This conclusion returns us to the basic questions undergirding international order. If the UN cannot and will not enforce its resolutions and international treaties, who will? Washington's answer in Iraq's case was simple and straightforward. As the strongest power in the world, with the greatest responsibility for preserving peace and security, and bearing in mind the threat it claimed to face, it acted unilaterally. Yet nobody else except Great Britain and Australia approved of these results and the crisis in Iraq grows apace. <br><br>Still, nobody else is willing or able to prevent the universally acknowledged scourge of proliferation. The IAEA report and its conclusions, the tawdry record of international support for proliferation even as it is being denounced, underscore two painful but incontestable facts. <br><br>Apart from the incapacity of the IAEA and the UN, there have been only two ways of halting proliferation. One is for the short term and the other has proven successful over the long term. The short-term method is by preventive strike, such as Israel did in 1981 in Osirak against Iraq. The longer-term method was the denouement to World War II where the allies occupied the Axis powers and made sure that there were no programs for these weapons. Everything else, the Versailles treaty, the Washington Naval Treaty and even the disarmament treaties of the 1970s, failed due to cheating and noncompliance. <br><br>Worse yet, when the noncompliance was discovered in most cases, nobody did anything about it. There are signs that this apathy might yet be the reaction to the IAEA report. Undoubtedly, many governments have telling arguments on their side for doing nothing. But can that reaction bring them or anyone else security? And in the meantime, how do we prevent more Irans and North Koreas from happening? <br><br><i><b>Stephen Blank</b> is an analyst of international security affairs residing in Harrisburg, PA.</i> <br><br>(Copyright 2003 Asia Times Online Ltd. All rights reserved. Please contact <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20031207084321/mailto:content@atimes.com"><font color="#0000ff">content@atimes.com</font></a> for information on our sales and syndication policies.) </td> </tr> <tr> <td align="left" valign="top" width="392"> </td> </tr> </table> </td> <td width="105" align="middle" valign="top"> <table width="100%" border="0" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"> <tr> <td height="44" align="middle" valign="center"><font class="time"><strong> Nov 21, 2003 </strong></font> </td> </tr> </table> <table width="100%" border="0" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"> <tr> <td height="75"><img height="75" src="/web/20031207084321im_/http://www.atimes.com/images/f_images/1pix.gif" width="1"></td> </tr> <tr> <td align="middle" valign="center"><a href="javascript:atprint();"><img height="26" src="/web/20031207084321im_/http://www.atimes.com/images/f_images/print.gif" width="91" border="0"></a></td> </tr> <tr> <td height="5" align="middle" valign="center"><img height="5" 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href="https://web.archive.org/web/20031207084321/http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/EK06Ak03.html"><font color="blue">US and Iran play it cool </font></a><font color="#999999" size="1">(Nov 6, '03)</font><font color="blue"> <br><br></font><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20031207084321/http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/EK01Ak02.html"><font color="blue">Iranian game is not over yet</font></a> <font color="#999999" size="1">(Nov 1, '03)</font><font color="blue"><br><br></font><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20031207084321/http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/EJ24Ak04.html"><font color="blue">Iran displays diplomacy at its finest </font></a><font color="#999999" size="1">(Oct 24, '03)</font><font color="blue"> <br><br></font><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20031207084321/http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/EJ23Ak03.html"><font color="#800080"><font color="blue">Surprise way out for Iran</font> </font></a> <font color="#999999" size="1">(Oct 23, 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