李忠双：短期内冷、热轧卷板市场将企稳-我的钢铁网

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style='color:#3861ab'>冷轧</a>卷板价格上涨10元/吨。从交易状况来看，近期冷、热轧卷板市场交易氛围一般，下游终端用户采购以刚需为主。</p> <p>针对后期冷、热轧卷板市场走势，他预计，短期内冷、热轧卷板价格将逐渐企稳，原因主要有以下方面。</p> <p>一是冷、热轧卷板需求仍具有韧性。近期，汽车、家电等制造业产销状况尚可。乘用车市场信息联席会（以下简称乘联会）数据显示，10月份，我国乘用车市场零售量达到236.1万辆，同比增长16%，环比增长12%。今年前10个月，我国累计乘用车零售量达到1793.6万辆，同比增长4%。乘联会预计，我国11月份狭义乘用车市场零售总量约为240万辆，同比增长15.4%，环比增长6.1%。</p> <p>李忠双分析认为，11月份以来，受“双十一”促销活动及“两新”（大规模设备更新和消费品以旧换新）工作加速推进的影响，汽车、家电市场消费热度持续走高，带动了汽车、家电产销量增长。他预计，近期冷、热轧卷板需求量有望增多，从而支撑冷、热轧卷板价格上行。</p> <p>二是冷、热轧卷板供给压力不大。11月中上旬，国内冷、热轧卷板价格总体处于震荡下行通道中，受盈利收缩及亏损等因素影响，钢企主动减产、限产行为增多。中国钢铁工业协会数据显示，11月中旬，重点统计钢企粗钢日均产量达到208万吨，旬环比下降0.8%；<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-968-----0305-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>生铁</a>日均产量达到187.6万吨，旬环比下降0.3%；钢材日均产量达到202.3万吨，旬环比增长3.6%。库存方面，11月中旬，全国21个城市五大钢材品种社会库存量为684万吨，旬环比减少9万吨，下降1.3%。</p> <p>“当前，钢贸商拥有的现货资源并不充裕，销售压力不大，冷、热轧卷板市场的供需矛盾有所改善，叠加钢企挺价意愿较强，在一定程度上遏制了冷、热轧卷板价格下跌。”李忠双表示。</p> <p>三是刚性的成本支撑仍强。近期，<a href='https://tks.m.mysteel.com/' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>铁矿石</a>、<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-967-----0501-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>焦炭</a>、<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-968-----0306-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>废钢</a>等钢铁原燃料价格高位震荡波动。11月中上旬，河北唐山地区废钢价格大幅上涨160元/吨；港口<a href='https://tks.m.mysteel.com/' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>铁矿石价格</a>震荡运行，整体上涨10元/吨；河北唐山地区焦炭价格下降100元/吨。总体来看，钢企成本支撑仍强，有利于后期冷、热轧卷板价格企稳。</p>  <br /> </div> </div> </article> <article class="content-block m-copyRight"> 资讯编辑：祝蓉 021-66896654 </br> 资讯监督：乐卫扬 021-26093827 </br> 资讯投诉：陈跃进 021-26093100 </br> </article> <article class="content-block m-copyRight h-statement"> <p class="h-statement-text">免责声明：Mysteel发布的原创及转载内容，仅供客户参考，不作为决策建议。原创内容版权归Mysteel所有，转载需取得Mysteel书面授权，且Mysteel保留对任何侵权行为和有悖原创内容原意的引用行为进行追究的权利。转载内容来源于网络，目的在于传递更多信息，方便学习与交流，并不代表Mysteel赞同其观点及对其真实性、完整性负责。申请授权及投诉，请联系Mysteel（021-26093397）处理。</p> <span class='h-statement-show'>展开</span> </article> <div class="content-block-title s-title"> <h2 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