Heat wave mortality studies reveal climate change impacts and risk for cities

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Another UQ study has also revealed people living in cities are at a higher risk of dying from heat waves than in regional areas.", "datePublished": "2025-02-17T17:33:03-05:00", "dateModified": "2025-02-17T17:33:03-05:00", "publisher": { "@type": "NewsMediaOrganization", "@id": "https://phys.org/#organization", "name": "Phys.org", "logo": { "@type": "ImageObject", "url": "https://phys.b-cdn.net/tmpl/v6/img/logo.amp.png", "width": 204, "height": 60 }, "sameAs": [ "https://www.facebook.com/physorg", "https://x.com/physorg_com", "https://www.linkedin.com/company/phys-org/", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phys.org", "https://bsky.app/profile/sciencex.bsky.social", "https://www.threads.net/@sciencex.physorg", "https://www.youtube.com/@Science-X" ], "masthead": "https://sciencex.com/help/editorial-team/", "publishingPrinciples": "https://sciencex.com/help/editorial-process/", "verificationFactCheckingPolicy": "https://sciencex.com/help/editorial-process/#factcheck", "correctionsPolicy": 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class="article__info-item d-inline mr-4"> <a href="javascript:void(0)" role="button" data-toggle="modal" data-target="#summary-modal" tabindex="0"> <svg class="article__info-icon"> <use href="https://phys.b-cdn.net/tmpl/v6/img/svg/sprite.svg#icon_clipboard" x="0" y="0" /> </svg> <span class="text-muted">The GIST</span> </a> </div> <div class="article__info-fc d-inline"> <a href="javascript:void(0)" role="button" data-toggle="popover" data-div="#factcheck-popover" data-placement="bottom" data-trigger="manual" tabindex="0"> <svg class="article__info-icon"> <use href="https://phys.b-cdn.net/tmpl/v6/img/svg/sprite.svg#check-mark" x="0" y="0" /> </svg> Editors' notes </a> </div> <div class="d-none" id="factcheck-popover"> <p> This article has been reviewed according to Science X's <a class="text-info" href="https://sciencex.com/help/editorial-process/" target="_blank">editorial process</a> and <a class="text-info" href="https://sciencex.com/help/editorial-standards/" target="_blank">policies</a>. <a class="text-info" href="https://sciencex.com/help/editorial-team/" target="_blank">Editors</a> have highlighted the following attributes while ensuring the content's credibility: </p> <p> <span class="tick-mark"></span> fact-checked </p> <p> <span class="tick-mark"></span> trusted source </p> <p> <span class="tick-mark"></span> proofread </p> </div> </div> </div> </div> <h1 class="text-extra-large line-low mb-2">Heat wave mortality studies reveal climate change impacts and risk for cities</h1> <p class="article-byline text-low"> by <a class="article-byline__link" href="http://www.uq.edu.au/" target="_blank">University of Queensland</a> </p> <div class="mt-4 article-main"> <div class="article-gallery lightGallery"> <div data-thumb="https://scx1.b-cdn.net/csz/news/tmb/2019/citypollution.jpg" data-src="https://scx2.b-cdn.net/gfx/news/hires/2019/citypollution.jpg" data-sub-html="Credit: CC0 Public Domain"> <figure class="article-img"> <img src="https://scx1.b-cdn.net/csz/news/800a/2019/citypollution.jpg" alt="city pollution" title="Credit: CC0 Public Domain" width="800" height="530"> <figcaption class="text-darken text-low-up text-truncate-js text-truncate mt-3"> Credit: CC0 Public Domain </figcaption> </figure> </div> </div><p>Mortality rates during heat waves have been put in the spotlight with research from The University of Queensland showing a 20% increase in heat wave-related deaths due to human-induced climate change. Another UQ study has also revealed people living in cities are at a higher risk of dying from heat waves than in regional areas.</p> <div class="article-banner first-banner ads-336x280">  <div id='div-gpt-ad-1449240174198-2'> <script type='text/javascript'> googletag.cmd.push(function() { googletag.display('div-gpt-ad-1449240174198-2'); }); </script> </div> </div> <p>The two studies examined the mortality burden of <a href="https://phys.org/tags/heat+waves/" rel="tag" class="textTag">heat waves</a> in Australia and Associate Professor Nicholas Osborne from the School of Public Health hopes this research will assist communities and health authorities to prepare for extreme temperature events.</p> <p>"Our results suggest heat waves with associated periods of higher mortality will occur more often than they did in the past," Dr. Osborne said.</p> <p>"These higher <a href="https://phys.org/tags/mortality+rates/" rel="tag" class="textTag">mortality rates</a> associated with extreme temperature heat waves are projected to continue and we hope our research will help communities be better prepared for heat waves."</p> <h2>Heat wave risk for those living in cities</h2> <p>In one study, UQ researchers analyzed two decades worth of temperature and mortality data to determine which areas in Australia are more vulnerable to heat waves, through a Heat wave Vulnerability Index.</p> <p>Ph.D. candidate Patrick Amoatey, from the School of Public Health, said the study—the largest of its kind conducted in Australia—found people living in cities were at higher risk of death during extreme temperature events.</p> <p>"We used an index mapping tool to assess how <a href="https://phys.org/tags/human+populations/" rel="tag" class="textTag">human populations</a> will fare under a range of heat scenarios," Mr. Amoatey said.</p> <p>"We found the Heat wave Vulnerability Index, frequently used in other countries, could reliably predict heat wave related deaths in Australia.</p> <p>"In analyzing data for more than 2000 suburbs, we found <a href="https://phys.org/tags/city+dwellers/" rel="tag" class="textTag">city dwellers</a> with low income, low education, diabetes and limited access to health services, were at the highest risk of heat wave related deaths.</p> <p>"This was the case for all of Australia's capital cities, which are home to 70% of Australia's population."</p> <div class="w-100 mb-4 ads"> <script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-0536483524803400" crossorigin="anonymous"></script>  <ins class="adsbygoogle" style="display:block; text-align:center;" data-ad-layout="in-article" data-ad-format="fluid" data-ad-client="ca-pub-0536483524803400" data-ad-slot="8188791252"></ins> <script> (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); </script> </div> <h2>'Heat island effect'</h2> <p>The researchers found that even during low-intensity heat waves there was a strong association with deaths and the Heat wave Vulnerability Index in Australia's capital cities.</p> <p>"We believe the risk is higher in cities because of the '<a href="https://phys.org/tags/heat+island+effect/" rel="tag" class="textTag">heat island effect</a>,' as there are more heat-absorbing surfaces like roads, buildings, and railway lines," Mr. Amoatey said.</p> <p>"In Greater London, for example, research has shown the Heat wave Vulnerability Index could be used to predict an increase in ambulance callouts and mortality rates during heat waves, which is helpful for <a href="https://phys.org/tags/health+authorities/" rel="tag" class="textTag">health authorities</a> and something we could use in Australia.</p> <p>"We already have useful tools and State-based action plans to reduce the impact of heat waves, but we believe a vulnerability index could help supplement this to help communities plan and build resilience."</p> <p>Mr. Amoatey said a heat wave was considered a period of 3 consecutive days where the maximum temperature was in the top 5% for that area.</p> <h2>Climate change impacts on heat wave deaths</h2> <p>In a separate study, researchers from UQ and The Australian National University analyzed mortality rates during an extreme heat wave in Victoria in January 2009, along with decades of climate data, to examine the impacts of climate change on heat related deaths.</p> <div class="ads w-100 my-4 article-main__more bg-light p-3 border" aria-hidden="true"> <p class="mb-3"> Discover the latest in science, tech, and space with over <strong>100,000 subscribers</strong> who rely on Phys.org for daily insights. Sign up for our <a href="https://sciencex.com/help/newsletter/" target="_blank">free newsletter</a> and get updates on breakthroughs, innovations, and research that matter—<strong>daily or weekly</strong>. </p> <form action="#" name="nwsubscribe"> <div class="form-row align-items-start"> <div class="offset-lg-1 col-6 col-sm-8 col-lg-7"> <input type="email" name="email" class="form-control" placeholder="e-mail"> </div> <div class="col-sm-4 col-4 col-lg-3"> <input type="hidden" name="project" value="physorg"> <button type="submit" class="btn btn-sm btn-block btn-info">Subscribe</button> </div> </div> </form> </div> <p>An estimated 374 excess deaths occurred in Victoria during the five-day event, with maximum temperatures reaching 12–15 degrees above normal.</p> <p>"Human-induced climate change had increased the excess heat wave-related mortality in the 2009 event by 20%," Dr. Osborne said.</p> <p>"These findings were in line with other research that shows heat-related deaths are increasing due to human-induced climate change.</p> <p>"From a public health perspective, our studies and further research can provide guidance on the need for adequate health infrastructure and workforce that might be needed to cope with higher demand for health services during heat waves."</p> <p>The Heat wave Vulnerability Index research is <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0195925525000095?via%3Dihub" target="_blank">published</a> in <i>Environmental Impact Assessment Review</i>.</p> <p>The mortality and climate change research was led by ANU's Professor Sarah Perkins-Kirkpatrick and is <a href="https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/2752-5295/ada8cd" target="_blank">published</a> in <i>Environmental Research Climate</i>.</p> <div class="article-main__more p-4"> <p><strong>More information:</strong> Patrick Amoatey et al, Evaluating the association between heatwave vulnerability index and related deaths in Australia, <i>Environmental Impact Assessment Review</i> (2025). <a data-doi="1" href="https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.eiar.2025.107812" target="_blank">DOI: 10.1016/j.eiar.2025.107812</a> <p>Sarah E Perkins-Kirkpatrick et al, Attributing heatwave-related mortality to climate change: a case study of the 2009 Victorian heatwave in Australia, <i>Environmental Research: Climate</i> (2025). <a data-doi="1" href="https://dx.doi.org/10.1088/2752-5295/ada8cd" target="_blank">DOI: 10.1088/2752-5295/ada8cd</a></p> </div> <div class="d-inline-block text-medium mt-4"> <p> Provided by <a href="https://phys.org/partners/university-of-queensland/">University of Queensland</a> <a class="icon_open" href="http://www.uq.edu.au/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow"> <svg> <use href="https://phys.b-cdn.net/tmpl/v6/img/svg/sprite.svg#icon_open" x="0" y="0"/> </svg> </a> </p> </div>  <div class="d-none d-print-block"> <div class="mb-4"> <strong>Citation</strong>: Heat wave mortality studies reveal climate change impacts and risk for cities (2025, February 17) retrieved 21 February 2025 from https://phys.org/news/2025-02-mortality-reveal-climate-impacts-cities.html </div> <div class="border text-muted p-3"> This document is subject to copyright. 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Heat wave mortality studies reveal climate change impacts and risk for cities