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花生下方有支撑 向上需谨慎-我的钢铁网
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external>农产品</a> > <span>正文</span> </div> <h2 class="article-title" style="color:#000000">花生下方有支撑 向上需谨慎</h2> <p class="infor"> <span class='source'>2025-03-18 11:42</span> <span class="time" style='margin-right: 0.5rem'>来源:我的钢铁网</span> <span class='time'>作者:建信期货 洪辰亮</span> </p> <article class="article-text article-text_1"> <div data-val="3826" id="article-content"> <div id="text"> <p>春节过后,<a href='https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/huasheng/' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>花生</a>现货市场稳中微涨,<a href='https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/youliao/' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>油料</a>米均价从节前的7500元/吨涨至7600元/吨,部分地区受制于上货量偏少,通货米也有200元/吨左右的涨幅,而期货上盘面同样偏强,主力05合约节前在7980点附近,当下涨至接近8250点。本文着重分析本次上涨的动力及后续可能的行情演绎。</p> <p>一、 <strong>看涨预期先行</strong></p> <p>节后至今,头部油厂要么暂未开收,要么收购态度谨慎,现货市场上对高价收购也相对比较谨慎,在此背景下,期货市场仍然维持1月至今偏强反弹的走势,盘面价格对标现货也有一定的升水,其更多的是将后续油厂入市后的涨价预期提前打入。</p> <p>从过去的历史经验来看,春节后到5月是传统收购旺季,虽然每年收购热情不一,但基本上都会在节后的3-5周开启帷幕,故理论上来说3月中上旬将可能是油厂大规模入市、需求提振的时机。当然也并不是每年这个时间段都会涨价,结合过去8年来看,期间涨价大概有4次、走平2次、下跌2次,与后续油厂的收购意愿、供应余量等指标紧密相关。当下上涨的预期主要原因是:</p> <p><strong>节前油厂收购意愿较好,有惯性思维:</strong>根据部分外部资料,截止25年第七周(元宵节左右),24/25年度代表油厂累计收购量约68.3万吨,去年同期为38.7万吨,同比增幅约76.5%;5年收购均值为56.5万吨,增幅约27.7%,累计数值仅次于20/21年度。其中较多中大型油厂基本都到春节前几日才逐步停收,虽然收购价格属于往年偏低,但在低价上油厂显得并不太悲观,愿意去做一定的库存。 <strong>节后压榨利润回暖,中粮提价提振信心:</strong>节后由于<a href='https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/doupo/' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>豆粕</a>大涨,花生粕价格同步抬升,山东方面的报价从节前的2925元/吨涨至3390元/吨,需求尚可,在<a href='https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/hsy/' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>花生油</a>价格变动不大的情况下,压榨利润回暖明显,截止3月10日,理论压榨利润大约在-162.5元/吨,节前大约在-361.25元/吨,去年同期为-411元/吨。另外节后部分中粮油厂在没有太多竞争对手的情况下,意外调涨了收购价100元/吨,也变相印证了行业利润的好转,以及潜在需求增量的可能。食品方面也存在阶段性补库需求,在3.8那周末,部分大厂放出收购精米合同,价格尚可。 <strong>苏丹战乱、塞内未开关,进口米二季度到港预期较差:</strong>往年的3-5月都是非洲进口花生集中到港的时期,而今年将有较大的变化。苏丹方面,内战仍未平息,往年出口高峰期被大大延后。像24年,3-5月每月苏丹米仅进口2万吨左右,而到了下半年的7-11月,进口量才逐步回暖至每月3-7万吨,预计今年仍可能会维持进口窗口的延后。而塞内加尔方面,为了优先保障本国企业的花生原材料供应,自2024年11月15日起暂停所有花生果出口。这就意味着,3-5月的收购旺季,潜在进口供应将会减少,这从当下港口仅有的部分进口米涨价也可以印证,变相增加了国内米的需求。 <strong>竞争作物如<a href='https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/yumi/' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>玉米</a>、<a href='https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/dadou/' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>大豆</a>等纷纷涨价,对农户及游资情绪有加持:</strong>春节后,玉米掀起一波上涨行情,元宵节后涨势更猛,华北地区普遍上涨一两百元至2250元/吨,主要由于余粮压力不大、中储粮政策及USDA1月报告后外盘玉米的涨势等原因。大豆方面同样稳中有涨,华北及东北地区涨幅约100-200元/吨,主要由于海外大豆价格上涨、国内<a href='https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/doupo/' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>豆粕价格</a>联动,国内压制利润较好,需求抬头等原因。农户看到竞争作物上涨,对花生也有持货待涨的心态,游资同样也有提前埋伏的心态。</p> <p>二、 <strong>上涨预期并非牢不可破</strong></p> <p>而关于以上这些潜在的利多,站在空头视角下,部分影响力存疑:</p> <p><strong>压制利润虽好转,但持续性存疑:</strong>本轮的压榨利润抬升主要是由豆粕价格的大幅上涨引发,而豆粕价格的上涨更多是供应上阶段性错配导致。从USDA3月报告来看,美豆期末库存落在3.8亿蒲,处于中性偏宽松水平;而全球大豆库使比约在21.9%,上一年度为20.0%,依旧是近12年来次高水平。随着南美天气窗口在逐渐关闭,丰产的压力将在3月后逐步显现。国内豆粕由于1-2月大豆买船量同比合计减少约400万吨,导致现货及前期03合约偏强,但3-5月船期大豆的大量购买也意味着4月过后,豆粕价格压力较大,这也从当下豆粕05合约的深度贴水可以反映。故当下压制利润水平或已经处于未来一段时间内的偏高水平,其持续性存疑,若压榨利润无法保持,很难想象油厂会抬价收购。 <strong>油厂在年前大量收购有避险考虑,节后收购态度有待观察:</strong>刚刚有提到节前油厂收购意愿较好,累计收购量也位于近些年来次高位置,但从现货渠道反馈来看,并未出现花生油走货大幅好转,库存紧张的情况,而收购意愿的增加更多是油厂的一种避险策略。比如美国大选在去年11月确定后,整个贸易政策的不确定性增加,身为<a href='https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/youzhi/' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>油脂</a>油料的一员,提前在低价采购相对保险。另外其实大企业再会提前对相关产品价格做调研,包括豆粕现货一季度趋紧、<a href='https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/zly/' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>棕榈油</a>产地库存在一季度难以抬头等因素,相信也会对当时年前的采购策略起辅助作用。最近的大幅采购年份是20/21和21/22年度,而此时与彼时最大的不同在于,彼时处于<a href='https://m.myagric.com/' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>农产品</a>牛市初期,上方顶部价格难以预测,而当下处于农产品熊市反弹周期,高度并没有十分乐观。 <strong>进口花生到港少,但情绪影响或大于实质:</strong>24年11-12月,我国塞内米零星到港,更多的是延迟的苏丹米到港,往年的旺季24年3-5月塞内米进口22.4万吨;23年约14.8万吨;22年为11.3万吨,这一部分今年应该是完全没有的,而就算加上苏丹的延迟到港,其总影响力大约不超过35-40万吨。这个数字是什么概念呢?如果按照1600多万吨的产量估算,按7成出米率,油料商品各半来分,我国油料米年供应量大约在570万吨,影响量大约在6-7%左右,当然这暂时还不算其他非洲渠道或直接进口花生油的补充。所以非洲进口受阻听上去唬人,实际上情绪面的影响更大。</p> <p>三、 <strong>观点总结及操作建议</strong></p> <p>从当下油厂的收购价格来看,对标期货交割品的标准,普遍价格在7900-8000元/吨,而港口的苏丹米价格大约在7900-8150元/吨,可售的货源不算多。考虑到后续进口补充较少,而油厂仍然有潜在的需求增量可期,预计当下油厂收购对标盘面的价格将会有较强力度的支撑。</p> <p>而向上的动能暂时来看需要谨慎对待,后续持续关注大厂的入市意愿,当下的利润并不能促使油厂抬价收购,上方卖压显著。另外需要关注的是四月中上旬春花生播种期,由于花生/玉米比价关系走弱,今年花生播种面积甚至有再度转弱的可能性,当下种子米销售清淡也加大了这一预期的可能性。面积减少叠加外部宏观扰动频现,关税等政策对农产品价格的加持等因素,中期潜在利多仍存。</p> <p>总结来说,本季花生期货价格不看空,下方预计有较强支撑,但向上弹性需谨慎对待,操作上关注8000行权价以下的卖出看跌期权,或低位持有期货多单叠加期权双卖策略以增厚利润。</p> <!--指标说明附件--> <br /> </div> </div> </article> <article class="content-block m-copyRight"> 资讯编辑:马明远 021-26092216 </br> 资讯监督:王涛 021-26090288 </br> 资讯投诉:陈跃进 021-26093100 </br> </article> <article class="content-block m-copyRight h-statement"> <p 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