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Analyysi: Huuhkajien tuloksiin liitetään helposti iso harha – mitä Markku Kanervan aikana on oikeasti tapahtunut? | Urheilu | Yle
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10.5596C12.2636 10.5596 12.1176 10.349 12.0783 9.37285H14.4503C14.9976 9.37285 15.2418 9.15664 15.2418 8.67213C15.2418 7.64237 15.0266 6.27171 13.165 6.27171C11.5931 6.27171 10.8919 7.12946 10.8919 9.05247C10.8919 10.9297 11.5452 11.6281 13.3016 11.6281C14.0318 11.6281 14.6097 11.5152 14.8366 11.4111C14.9811 11.3495 15.1138 11.2572 15.1138 11V10.8122C15.113 10.5699 14.9748 10.4239 14.7432 10.4239Z" fill="currentColor"></path><path d="M12.0846 8.41359C12.1301 7.57715 12.4701 7.20312 13.1831 7.20312H13.1838C13.8614 7.20312 14.1661 7.56532 14.1975 8.41202L12.0846 8.41359Z" fill="currentColor"></path><path d="M31.4197 13.2932H25.348L23.7136 18.0002H20.0957L26.4898 0.198242H30.7749L37.0436 18.0002H33.1032L31.4197 13.2932ZM28.4689 3.60924L26.1405 10.5302H30.6719L28.4689 3.60924Z" fill="currentColor"></path><path d="M49.178 18L45.1885 11.925H42.4616V18H38.9421V0.621C38.9421 0.621 41.1944 0 45.2332 0C49.8676 0 52.6393 1.62 52.6393 5.2515C52.6393 8.9595 50.3601 10.5525 48.7258 11.277L53.3826 18H49.178ZM42.466 9.1125H46.4556C48.1661 8.3925 48.9586 7.47 48.9586 5.6025C48.9586 3.6585 47.5706 2.889 45.2914 2.889C43.8541 2.889 42.466 3.1365 42.466 3.1365V9.1125Z" fill="currentColor"></path><path d="M55.4691 17.9996V0.24707H67.5319V3.25757H59.0109V7.71257H66.3677V10.6016H59.0109V14.9846H67.7558V17.9996H55.4691Z" fill="currentColor"></path><path d="M70.3842 17.9996V0.24707H82.4469V3.25757H73.926V7.71257H81.2828V10.6016H73.926V14.9846H82.6708V17.9996H70.3842Z" fill="currentColor"></path><path d="M88.7872 17.9996H85.2947V0.24707H88.5633L97.1111 11.4746V0.24707H100.631V17.9996H97.9798L88.7872 6.20057V17.9996Z" fill="currentColor"></path><path d="M113.831 13.2932H107.759L106.129 18.0002H102.511L108.901 0.198242H113.186L119.455 18.0002H115.514L113.831 13.2932ZM110.884 3.60924L108.556 10.5302H113.087L110.884 3.60924Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg><p class="_1m3quf82 fck75q2">Sarjat. 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class="aw-1ag6w51 nvljT"><a href="/web/20240326134621/https://yle.fi/t/18-205598/fi" aria-label="Lisää artikkeleita aiheesta Jalkapallo" class="aw-l7odld jXfkxq">Jalkapallo</a></div><h1 class="sc-aXZVg cZXpWU yle__article__heading yle__article__heading--1">Analyysi: Huuhkajien tuloksiin liitetään helposti iso harha – mitä Markku Kanervan aikana on oikeasti tapahtunut?</h1><p class="aw-1gybjub aw-5vja16 jxdWmn eeXVLF yle__article__paragraph">Suomen miesten A-maajoukkue on tehnyt Markku Kanervan alaisuudessa kovaa jälkeä suhteessa sen maaliodottamaan.</p><div class="aw-e30oo3 blLbha"></div><figure class="aw-u5oz0a clzEhy yle__article__figure"><script type="application/ld+json">{"@id":"74-20080873","@context":"https://web.archive.org/web/20240326134621/https://schema.org","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","description":"Serie B:n Veneziassa pelaava Joel Pohjanpalo (kesk.) ja Bundesliigan kärkijoukkueen Leverkusenin maalivahti ja kapteeni Lukas Hradecky (oik.) poistuivat kentältä pettyneinä, kun Suomi oli hävinnyt Walesille maalein 1–4.","copyrightHolder":"PA Images via Getty Images","url":"https://web.archive.org/web/20240326134621/https://images.cdn.yle.fi/image/upload/ar_1.7777777777777777,c_fill,g_faces,h_431,w_767/dpr_2.0/q_auto:eco/f_auto/fl_lossy/39-126103365fcdc0057eb3","keywords":"jalkapallo,Huuhkajat"}}</script><div class="aw-1a00tic jZEjMr"><div class="aw-1qvmjke bKIcxT"><div class="aw-1njknqq euollB"><picture><source data-testid="source-for-S" media="(max-width: 767px)" srcset="https://web.archive.org/web/20240326134621im_/https://images.cdn.yle.fi/image/upload/c_crop,h_3375,w_6000,x_0,y_0/ar_1.7777777777777777,c_fill,g_faces,h_431,w_767/dpr_2.0/q_auto:eco/f_auto/fl_lossy/v1711120943/39-126103365fcdc0057eb3 2x, https://web.archive.org/web/20240326134621im_/https://images.cdn.yle.fi/image/upload/c_crop,h_3375,w_6000,x_0,y_0/ar_1.7777777777777777,c_fill,g_faces,h_431,w_767/dpr_1.0/q_auto:eco/f_auto/fl_lossy/v1711120943/39-126103365fcdc0057eb3 1x"/><source data-testid="source-for-M" media="(min-width: 768px)" srcset="https://web.archive.org/web/20240326134621im_/https://images.cdn.yle.fi/image/upload/c_crop,h_3375,w_6000,x_0,y_0/ar_1.7777777777777777,c_fill,g_faces,h_357,w_636/dpr_2.0/q_auto:eco/f_auto/fl_lossy/v1711120943/39-126103365fcdc0057eb3 2x, https://web.archive.org/web/20240326134621im_/https://images.cdn.yle.fi/image/upload/c_crop,h_3375,w_6000,x_0,y_0/ar_1.7777777777777777,c_fill,g_faces,h_357,w_636/dpr_1.0/q_auto:eco/f_auto/fl_lossy/v1711120943/39-126103365fcdc0057eb3 1x"/><img alt="Pohjanpalo ja Hradecky pettyneinä." src="https://web.archive.org/web/20240326134621im_/https://images.cdn.yle.fi/image/upload/c_crop,h_3375,w_6000,x_0,y_0/ar_1.7777777777777777,c_fill,g_faces,h_431,w_767/dpr_1.0/q_auto:eco/f_auto/fl_lossy/v1711120943/39-126103365fcdc0057eb3" class="aw-1l9m598 bTKagC"/></picture></div><div class="aw-45s348 glxCAO"><button aria-disabled="false" class="Buttonstyles__ButtonBase-sc-17sr1bx-0 Buttonstyles__ButtonSecondary-sc-17sr1bx-2 blJlbw iLYbQX"><span class="Buttonstyles__TextWrapper-sc-17sr1bx-7 kWJvkV yds-button__content">Avaa kuvien katselu</span></button></div></div></div><figcaption class="aw-kr26k0 iEoONW"><span>Serie B:n Veneziassa pelaava Joel Pohjanpalo (kesk.) ja Bundesliigan kärkijoukkueen Leverkusenin maalivahti ja kapteeni Lukas Hradecky (oik.) poistuivat kentältä pettyneinä, kun Suomi oli hävinnyt Walesille maalein 1–4.</span><span> Kuva: PA Images via Getty Images</span></figcaption></figure><div class="aw-1wk2icm iaIVgA"><div class="aw-qww0lc eFtfQt"><div class="aw-x5rn7a iKNQRH"><span class="aw-z7z0zi hEWAhM">Atte Husu</span></div></div></div><div class="aw-1hwlbbb iumvhG"><div class="aw-64d2lh cPAYLb"><div class="aw-kzjed4 dgiUVP yle__article__date"><time class="aw-lsqctp jPSFYl yle__article__date--published" datetime="2024-03-26T13:00:36+02:00">13:00</time><span aria-hidden="true" class="aw-131q90r bsXkQk">•</span><time class="aw-lsqctp jPSFYl yle__article__date--modified" datetime="2024-03-26T14:17:26+02:00">Päivitetty<!-- --> <!-- -->14:17</time></div></div><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20240326134621/https://yle.onelink.me/46xJ/07zyq6zz?deep_link_sub1=74-20080873" class="aw-pqa0kd GtYAc">Avaa Yle-sovelluksessa<svg width="24" height="24" viewbox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" aria-hidden="true"><path d="M15 2a1 1 0 1 0 0 2h3.586l-9.293 9.293a1 1 0 1 0 1.414 1.414L20 5.414V9a1 1 0 1 0 2 0V3a1 1 0 0 0-1-1h-6ZM5 7a1 1 0 0 0-1 1v11a1 1 0 0 0 1 1h11a1 1 0 0 0 1-1v-6a1 1 0 0 1 2 0v6a3 3 0 0 1-3 3H5a3 3 0 0 1-3-3V8a3 3 0 0 1 3-3h6a1 1 0 1 1 0 2H5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg></a><div class="aw-itub5i eehAxh"><div><button aria-label="Jaa artikkeli" aria-disabled="false" id="share-menu-button" aria-haspopup="true" class="Buttonstyles__ButtonBase-sc-17sr1bx-0 Buttonstyles__ButtonText-sc-17sr1bx-3 jrqhnK kvhUhF"><span class="Buttonstyles__iconSize-sc-17sr1bx-4 Buttonstyles__IconWrapper-sc-17sr1bx-6 cazOWd dPcqZv yds-button__icon"><svg width="24" height="24" viewbox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" aria-hidden="true" class="aw-wi5224 fZrvxl"><path fill-rule="evenodd" clip-rule="evenodd" d="M12.43 3.078a1 1 0 0 1 1.087.207l8.182 8a1 1 0 0 1 0 1.43l-8.182 8a1 1 0 0 1-1.7-.715v-3.855h-.008c-1.968.029-3.972.988-5.827 2.417L3.61 20.389a1 1 0 0 1-1.592-.981l.5-2.597.014-.062c.23-.883.58-1.911.986-2.865.4-.94.88-1.876 1.387-2.532.964-1.246 2.07-2.138 3.405-2.709 1.057-.45 2.219-.684 3.508-.76V4a1 1 0 0 1 .612-.922Zm1.388 3.298v3.48h-1c-1.529 0-2.727.202-3.722.627-.984.42-1.826 1.081-2.609 2.093-.351.454-.753 1.206-1.129 2.09a19.46 19.46 0 0 0-.874 2.525l.277-.213c2.023-1.559 4.445-2.798 7.028-2.833h2.029v3.479L19.57 12l-5.752-5.624Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg></span><span class="Buttonstyles__TextWrapper-sc-17sr1bx-7 WDnuQ yds-button__text">Jaa</span></button></div></div></div></header><section class="yle__article__content"><p class="aw-1gybjub aw-1p7kakr jxdWmn ilDxnw yle__article__paragraph"><strong class="aw-ak79eh hgoSon yle__article__strong">Markku Kanerva</strong> on luotsannut Suomen miesten jalkapallomaajoukkuetta joulukuusta 2016. Huuhkajat on pelannut päävalmentajansa alaisuudessa 56 kilpailullista ottelua, kun mukaan lasketaan vuoden 2021 EM-kisat, MM- ja EM-karsinnat sekä Kansojen liigan ottelut.</p><p class="aw-1gybjub aw-1p7kakr jxdWmn ilDxnw yle__article__paragraph">Näistä 56 ottelusta Huuhkajilla on 28 voittoa, 6 tasapeliä ja 22 tappiota. Joukkue on tehnyt 69 ja päästänyt 56 maalia, ollut ensi kertaa arvokisoissa ja nostanut itseensä kohdistuvia odotuksia.</p><p class="aw-1gybjub aw-1p7kakr jxdWmn ilDxnw yle__article__paragraph">– Iso kuva on, että Markku Kanerva nosti maajoukkueen uudelle tasolle <strong class="aw-ak79eh hgoSon yle__article__strong">Hans Backen</strong> ja <strong class="aw-ak79eh hgoSon yle__article__strong">Mixu Paatelaisen</strong> aikakausien jälkeen. Se näkyy käytännössä kaikilla mittareilla, Yle Urheilun jalkapalloasiantuntija <strong class="aw-ak79eh hgoSon yle__article__strong">Miika Nuutinen</strong> sanoo.</p><p class="aw-1gybjub aw-1p7kakr jxdWmn ilDxnw yle__article__paragraph">Mutta mitä maajoukkueen kohentuneiden tulosten taakse kätkeytyy ja miten tulokset ovat ennen kaikkea kehittyneet Kanervan seitsemän vuotta kestäneellä päävalmentajakaudella?</p><p class="aw-1gybjub aw-1p7kakr jxdWmn ilDxnw yle__article__paragraph">Kanervan asema on ollut puheenaihe sen jälkeen, kun Huuhkajat hävisi viime torstaina Kansojen liigan jatkokarsinnassa Walesille maalein 1–4. Koska kisalippu ensi kesän Saksan EM-kisoihin karkasi, moni on ollut valmis etsimään Kanervan tilalle uuden päävalmentajan.</p><figure class="aw-u5oz0a crkERF yle__article__figure"><script type="application/ld+json">{"@id":"74-20080873","@context":"https://web.archive.org/web/20240326134621/https://schema.org","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","description":"Markku Kanerva valoi suojatteihinsa uskoa Cardiffin stadionilla. ","copyrightHolder":"Emmi Korhonen / Lehtikuva","url":"https://web.archive.org/web/20240326134621/https://images.cdn.yle.fi/image/upload/ar_1.4988290398126465,c_fill,g_faces,h_511,w_767/dpr_2.0/q_auto:eco/f_auto/fl_lossy/39-12624816601954cb03e1","keywords":"Markku Kanerva,Huuhkajat"}}</script><div class="aw-1a00tic Kxnyr"><div class="aw-1qvmjke bKIcxT"><div class="aw-1njknqq euollB"><picture><source data-testid="source-for-S" media="(max-width: 767px)" srcset="https://web.archive.org/web/20240326134621im_/https://images.cdn.yle.fi/image/upload/ar_1.4988290398126465,c_fill,g_faces,h_511,w_767/dpr_2.0/q_auto:eco/f_auto/fl_lossy/v1711399603/39-12624816601954cb03e1 2x, https://web.archive.org/web/20240326134621im_/https://images.cdn.yle.fi/image/upload/ar_1.4988290398126465,c_fill,g_faces,h_511,w_767/dpr_1.0/q_auto:eco/f_auto/fl_lossy/v1711399603/39-12624816601954cb03e1 1x"/><source data-testid="source-for-M" media="(min-width: 768px)" srcset="https://web.archive.org/web/20240326134621im_/https://images.cdn.yle.fi/image/upload/ar_1.4988290398126465,c_fill,g_faces,h_424,w_636/dpr_2.0/q_auto:eco/f_auto/fl_lossy/v1711399603/39-12624816601954cb03e1 2x, https://web.archive.org/web/20240326134621im_/https://images.cdn.yle.fi/image/upload/ar_1.4988290398126465,c_fill,g_faces,h_424,w_636/dpr_1.0/q_auto:eco/f_auto/fl_lossy/v1711399603/39-12624816601954cb03e1 1x"/><img alt="Markku Kanerva kuvattuna Wales-ottelussa viime torstaina." src="https://web.archive.org/web/20240326134621im_/https://images.cdn.yle.fi/image/upload/c_crop,h_2880,w_5120,x_0,y_72/ar_1.7777777777777777,c_fill,g_faces,h_431,w_767/dpr_1.0/q_auto:eco/f_auto/fl_lossy/v1711399603/39-12624816601954cb03e1" class="aw-1l9m598 bTKagC"/></picture></div><div class="aw-45s348 glxCAO"><button aria-disabled="false" class="Buttonstyles__ButtonBase-sc-17sr1bx-0 Buttonstyles__ButtonSecondary-sc-17sr1bx-2 blJlbw iLYbQX"><span class="Buttonstyles__TextWrapper-sc-17sr1bx-7 kWJvkV yds-button__content">Avaa kuvien katselu</span></button></div></div></div><figcaption class="aw-kr26k0 iEoONW"><span>Markku Kanerva valoi suojatteihinsa uskoa Cardiffin stadionilla. </span><span> Kuva: Emmi Korhonen / Lehtikuva</span></figcaption></figure><p class="aw-1gybjub aw-1p7kakr jxdWmn ilDxnw yle__article__paragraph">Kanervan sopimus kestää kuluvan vuoden loppuun. Loppuvuodesta maajoukkue pelaa Kansojen liigan B-tason lohkossa, jossa muut maat ovat Englanti, Irlanti ja Kreikka.</p><p class="aw-1gybjub aw-1p7kakr jxdWmn ilDxnw yle__article__paragraph">Sijoitus kahden parhaan joukossa avaisi varasauman päästä karsimaan paikasta vuoden 2026 MM-kisoissa, jos joukkue ei lunasta kisalippua vanhan mallin karsinnoista.</p><p class="aw-1gybjub aw-1p7kakr jxdWmn ilDxnw yle__article__paragraph">Mutta onko päävalmentajan vaihdos ajankohtainen juuri nyt? Onko Huuhkajat riittävän laadukas joukkue, että siltä voidaan odottaa arvokisapaikkaa kerta toisensa jälkeen?</p><p class="aw-1gybjub aw-1p7kakr jxdWmn ilDxnw yle__article__paragraph">Nuutisen mukaan pitää tapahtua paljon, että Huuhkajat nousee arvokisojen vakiokävijäksi – oli sitten valmennusvastuussa Kanerva tai joku muu.</p><h2 class="sc-gEvEer dSgPhs yle__article__heading yle__article__heading--2">Pelaajamateriaali ei riitä</h2><p class="aw-1gybjub aw-1p7kakr jxdWmn ilDxnw yle__article__paragraph">– Se, että Huuhkajat kilpailee kisapaikasta, vaatii aina ylisuorittamista pelaajamateriaaliin nähden. Joukkueella on kaksi pelaajaa, jotka pelaavat Euroopan top 5 -sarjoissa. Se on aika karu tilanne, Nuutinen sanoo.</p><p class="aw-1gybjub aw-1p7kakr jxdWmn ilDxnw yle__article__paragraph">Euroopan kovimmissa sarjoissa pelaavat kaksi suomalaista löytyvät Saksan Bundesliigasta. Maalivahti <strong class="aw-ak79eh hgoSon yle__article__strong">Lukas Hradecky</strong> edustaa pelipaikkansa absoluuttista huippua ja on kipparoimassa Bayer Leverkusenin seurahistoriansa ensimmäiseen Saksan mestaruuteen. Keskikenttäpelaaja <strong class="aw-ak79eh hgoSon yle__article__strong">Fredrik Jensen</strong> pelaa Bundesliigaa FC Augsburgissa.</p><p class="aw-1gybjub aw-1p7kakr jxdWmn ilDxnw yle__article__paragraph">EM-kisoista niin ikään pudonneiden Norjan ja Ruotsin pelaajamateriaali on aivan toista luokkaa kuin Huuhkajilla. Viime viikon ystävyysotteluissa molemmilla naapurimailla oli avauskokoonpanossaan yhdeksän pelaajaa Euroopan top 5 -liigoista (Englannin, Espanjan, Italian, Saksan ja Ranskan pääsarjat).</p><div class="aw-1dnbj3b fxARb yle__article__infogram"> <div class="infogram-embed" data-id="2f2d7d6d-b170-47d1-8b64-f9c75c994617" data-type="interactive" data-title=""></div> </div><p class="aw-1gybjub aw-1p7kakr jxdWmn ilDxnw yle__article__paragraph">Pelkästään Ruotsin vaihtopenkiltä löytyi kolme pelaajaa, jotka pelaavat ammatikseen Espanjan, Ranskan ja Englannin liigoissa.</p><p class="aw-1gybjub aw-1p7kakr jxdWmn ilDxnw yle__article__paragraph">– Norjalla on kaksi maailman top 10 -pelaajaa (Manchester Cityn <strong class="aw-ak79eh hgoSon yle__article__strong">Erling Haaland</strong> ja Arsenalin <strong class="aw-ak79eh hgoSon yle__article__strong">Martin Ödegaard</strong>). Ruotsin pelaajat pelaavat käytännössä kaikki Euroopan isoissa sarjoissa, ja heillä on kärjessä yksi Euroopan kuumimmista hyökkääjistä, Nuutinen viittaa Portugalin liigassa 22 maalia Sporting Lissabonille mättäneeseen <strong class="aw-ak79eh hgoSon yle__article__strong">Viktor Gyökeresiin</strong>.</p><p class="aw-1gybjub aw-1p7kakr jxdWmn ilDxnw yle__article__paragraph">– Huuhkajien viime vuosien tulokset ovat asettaneet riman korkealle. Se ehkä vähän hämärtää tätä realismia.</p><figure class="aw-u5oz0a crkERF yle__article__figure"><script type="application/ld+json">{"@id":"74-20080873","@context":"https://web.archive.org/web/20240326134621/https://schema.org","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","description":"Viktor Gyökeres on huudattanut lissabonilaisyleisöä tällä kaudella. Hän johtaa Portugalin liigan maalipörssiä 22 osumallaan.","copyrightHolder":"Gualter Fatia/Getty Images","url":"https://web.archive.org/web/20240326134621/https://images.cdn.yle.fi/image/upload/ar_1.5094726062467998,c_fill,g_faces,h_508,w_767/dpr_2.0/q_auto:eco/f_auto/fl_lossy/39-12625456601e3e73d60e","keywords":"Viktor Gyökeres"}}</script><div class="aw-1a00tic eAUDHE"><div class="aw-1qvmjke bKIcxT"><div class="aw-1njknqq euollB"><picture><source data-testid="source-for-S" media="(max-width: 767px)" srcset="https://web.archive.org/web/20240326134621im_/https://images.cdn.yle.fi/image/upload/ar_1.5094726062467998,c_fill,g_faces,h_508,w_767/dpr_2.0/q_auto:eco/f_auto/fl_lossy/v1711400034/39-12625456601e3e73d60e 2x, https://web.archive.org/web/20240326134621im_/https://images.cdn.yle.fi/image/upload/ar_1.5094726062467998,c_fill,g_faces,h_508,w_767/dpr_1.0/q_auto:eco/f_auto/fl_lossy/v1711400034/39-12625456601e3e73d60e 1x"/><source data-testid="source-for-M" media="(min-width: 768px)" srcset="https://web.archive.org/web/20240326134621im_/https://images.cdn.yle.fi/image/upload/ar_1.5094726062467998,c_fill,g_faces,h_421,w_636/dpr_2.0/q_auto:eco/f_auto/fl_lossy/v1711400034/39-12625456601e3e73d60e 2x, https://web.archive.org/web/20240326134621im_/https://images.cdn.yle.fi/image/upload/ar_1.5094726062467998,c_fill,g_faces,h_421,w_636/dpr_1.0/q_auto:eco/f_auto/fl_lossy/v1711400034/39-12625456601e3e73d60e 1x"/><img alt="Viktor Gyökeres on huudattanut lissabonilaisyleisöä tällä kaudella. Hän johtaa Portugalin liigan maalipörssiä 22 osumallaan." src="https://web.archive.org/web/20240326134621im_/https://images.cdn.yle.fi/image/upload/c_crop,h_3312,w_5889,x_7,y_244/ar_1.7777777777777777,c_fill,g_faces,h_431,w_767/dpr_1.0/q_auto:eco/f_auto/fl_lossy/v1711400034/39-12625456601e3e73d60e" class="aw-1l9m598 bTKagC"/></picture></div><div class="aw-45s348 glxCAO"><button aria-disabled="false" class="Buttonstyles__ButtonBase-sc-17sr1bx-0 Buttonstyles__ButtonSecondary-sc-17sr1bx-2 blJlbw iLYbQX"><span class="Buttonstyles__TextWrapper-sc-17sr1bx-7 kWJvkV yds-button__content">Avaa kuvien katselu</span></button></div></div></div><figcaption class="aw-kr26k0 iEoONW"><span>Viktor Gyökeres on huudattanut lissabonilaisyleisöä tällä kaudella. Hän johtaa Portugalin liigan maalipörssiä 22 osumallaan.</span><span> Kuva: Gualter Fatia/Getty Images</span></figcaption></figure><h2 class="sc-gEvEer dSgPhs yle__article__heading yle__article__heading--2">Vastoin todennäköisyyksiä</h2><p class="aw-1gybjub aw-1p7kakr jxdWmn ilDxnw yle__article__paragraph">Pelaajamateriaalin lisäksi realismia voi hakea myös Huuhkajien tilastoista, joista yksi on maaliodottama.</p><p class="aw-1gybjub aw-1p7kakr jxdWmn ilDxnw yle__article__paragraph">Maaliodottama kertoo, millä todennäköisyydellä laukaus menee maaliin asteikolla 0–1. Mitä korkeampi lukema on, sitä todennäköisemmin maalijuhlat nähdään. Maaliodottama pystyy ennustamaan menestystä pitkässä juoksussa, koska usein parempia paikkoja luonut joukkue voittaa enemmän. Voit lukea aiheesta laajemmin <a class="aw-iao6s4 drtaeR yle__article__link" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20240326134621/https://yle.fi/a/74-20007220" role="link">tästä linkistä</a>.</p><p class="aw-1gybjub aw-1p7kakr jxdWmn ilDxnw yle__article__paragraph">Tilastopalvelu Bollan mukaan Huuhkajien Kanervan alaisuudessa saavuttamista 28 voitosta seitsemän on tullut maaliodottamalla, joka on ollut ottelussa vastustajaa huonompi. Huuhkajien 22 tappiosta kolme on tullut vastustajaa paremmalla maaliodottamalla. Kuudesta tasapelistä neljässä vastustaja on ollut Huuhkajia parempi, jos mittarina käytetään maaliodottamaa.</p><div class="aw-1dnbj3b fxARb yle__article__infogram"> <div class="infogram-embed" data-id="7225e7cf-0530-4d72-b6b5-11b9639d292d" data-type="interactive" data-title=""></div> </div><p class="aw-1gybjub aw-1p7kakr jxdWmn ilDxnw yle__article__paragraph">Kun Huuhkajat eteni vuoden 2021 EM-kisoihin, joukkueen maaliodottama oli vastustajaa parempi jokaisessa voittoon päättyneessä kuudessa karsintaottelussa.</p><p class="aw-1gybjub aw-1p7kakr jxdWmn ilDxnw yle__article__paragraph">EM-kisoissa Huuhkajat sai jokaisessa kolmessa ottelussaan aikaiseksi yhden laukauksen maalia kohti. Yksi niistä riitti voittoon Tanskasta, vaikka juutit voittivat maalintekoyritykset 23–1 ja laukaukset maalia kohti 6–1.</p><p class="aw-1gybjub aw-1p7kakr jxdWmn ilDxnw yle__article__paragraph">Hradecky torjui <strong class="aw-ak79eh hgoSon yle__article__strong">Christian Eriksenin</strong> sydänpysähdyksen varjostamassa ottelussa myös rangaistuspotkun. Tanskan maaliodottama oli 2,34 ja Suomen 0,39.</p><figure class="aw-d7wn69 dMVdkR yle__article__figure"><script type="application/ld+json">{"@id":"74-20080873","@context":"https://web.archive.org/web/20240326134621/https://schema.org","audio":{"@type":"AudioObject"}}</script><div class="aw-1fe49d7 gMIksm"><div class="aw-1io1lyd kPRuwh"><div class="aw-1txqavw hPwGAI"><strong class="aw-1bgq5a3 cIiQSU">Miika Nuutinen arvioi Huuhkajien aikaa Markku Kanervan alaisuudessa</strong></div></div><div class="aw-1wtbyt7 fGbgLq"><div></div></div></div></figure><p class="aw-1gybjub aw-1p7kakr jxdWmn ilDxnw yle__article__paragraph">Vuodesta 2019 Huuhkajat on pelannut yhdeksän ottelua niin sanottuja A-kategorian maita vastaan. Niissä Suomi on hävinnyt maalintekoyritykset 56–151, laukaukset maalia kohti 8–54 ja maaliodottaman 0,64–1,83.</p><p class="aw-1gybjub aw-1p7kakr jxdWmn ilDxnw yle__article__paragraph">– Suomi ei ole noussut tasolle, jossa se pystyisi pelillisesti kilpailemaan Euroopan huippumaita vastaan. Markku Kanervan ajan tulokset ovat perustuneet siihen, että joukkue on pystynyt voittamaan heikompia ja samantasoisia maita riittävän hyvällä prosentilla ja kääntämään tasaiset ottelut edukseen, Nuutinen sanoo.</p><p class="aw-1gybjub aw-1p7kakr jxdWmn ilDxnw yle__article__paragraph">Jos tarkastelu rajataan Suomen kanssa Kansojen liigan B-tasolla pelaaviin ja pelanneisiin maihin, Huuhkajat on pelannut vuodesta 2020 19 ottelua. Näissä se on tehnyt 25 ja päästänyt 24 maalia, vaikka sen maaliodottama on 1,32 ja vastustajien 1,63. Kestomenestykseen päästäkseen Huuhkajien pitää pystyä kääntämään odotusarvot edukseen.</p><p class="aw-1gybjub aw-1p7kakr jxdWmn ilDxnw yle__article__paragraph">– Siihen Kanerva tiimeineen on pyrkinyt pelillisillä muutoksilla EM-kisojen jälkeen, mutta täysin toimivaa sapluunaa ei ole näissä karsinnoissa löytynyt. Siitä kertovat lukuisat pelijärjestelmän ja kokoonpanon muutokset karsintojen kuluessa. Tilastollisesti mitään jyrkkää laskusuhdannetta ei ole kuitenkaan nähtävissä, kun peilataan Kanervan aikakautta, Nuutinen sanoo.</p><p class="aw-1gybjub aw-1p7kakr jxdWmn ilDxnw yle__article__paragraph">Nuutinen korostaa, että kriittiselle keskustelulle Huuhkajien pelitavasta ja Kanervan asemasta on sijansa, mutta keskustelua on syytä käydä realiteettien kautta.</p><p class="aw-1gybjub aw-1p7kakr jxdWmn ilDxnw yle__article__paragraph">– Peli kertoo lopulta kaiken. Tällä kertaa Huuhkajat ei onnistunut ylisuorittamaan sillä tavalla, että se olisi mennyt kisoihin. Joukkueen pelaamisessa on ollut selviä heikkouksia. Etenkin murheellisen erikoistilannesaldon on parannuttava. Keskustelu käy kovilla kierroksilla myös siksi, että Huuhkajat sai jo hyvät asemat karsintalohkossa, mutta oli ratkaisevilla hetkillä heikko.</p><p class="aw-1gybjub aw-1p7kakr jxdWmn ilDxnw yle__article__paragraph">– Sanon kuitenkin, että nykyisessä pelaajatilanteessa Suomen kisapaikkaa ei voi pitää standardina. Se, että Suomi pelaa tulevaisuudessa arvokisoissa, vaatii superonnistumista ja kilpailuedun saamista joukkueen kollektiivisesta toiminnasta, Nuutinen sanoo.</p><div class="aw-1dnbj3b fxARb yle__article__infogram"> <div class="infogram-embed" data-id="dc63f799-a30a-4c55-8e6d-d96073e0c479" data-type="interactive" data-title=""></div> </div></section><footer class="yle__article__footer"><div><div class="aw-1n3c5tg lkXQTI"><a href="/web/20240326134621/https://yle.fi/t/18-205598/fi" aria-label="Lisää artikkeleita aiheesta Jalkapallo" class="aw-1viu5l0 ihpQdr">Jalkapallo</a><a href="/web/20240326134621/https://yle.fi/t/18-168516/fi" aria-label="Lisää artikkeleita aiheesta Markku Kanerva" class="aw-1viu5l0 ihpQdr">Markku Kanerva</a><a href="/web/20240326134621/https://yle.fi/t/18-190309/fi" aria-label="Lisää artikkeleita aiheesta Huuhkajat" class="aw-1viu5l0 ihpQdr">Huuhkajat</a><div class="aw-cf4nb3 caaAug"><button aria-label="Näytä kaikki aiheet" aria-disabled="false" 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SidebarLayout__SidebarItemContainer-sc-62834cb4-1 SJjbS imIATf"><h2 id="sb-most-read" class="Typography-sc-905807c5-0 bMPfte SidebarLayout__SidebarItemHeader-sc-62834cb4-0 cxIXFb SidebarLayout__SidebarItemHeader-sc-62834cb4-0 cxIXFb">Luetuimmat</h2><div class="MinimalHeadlines__Container-sc-79c54a90-0 cMuccD"><ol aria-labelledby="sb-most-read"><li class="MinimalHeadlines__Item-sc-79c54a90-1 idtWDG"><div class="MinimalHeadlines__BulletContainer-sc-79c54a90-8 hKwNaR"><div class="MinimalHeadlines__BulletCell-sc-79c54a90-9 byezyD"><div aria-hidden="true" class="MinimalHeadlines__Index-sc-79c54a90-5 ffWqMg">1</div><div class="MinimalHeadlines__ListLine-sc-79c54a90-4 cqDOIP"></div></div></div><div class="MinimalHeadlines__Texts-sc-79c54a90-2 jYVeIk"><a href="/web/20240326134621/https://yle.fi/t/18-205598/fi" class="Tag__Label-sc-10f4ee8e-0 dpErSM MinimalHeadlines__StyledTag-sc-79c54a90-3 hLpKvJ">Jalkapallo</a><h3 class="Typography-sc-905807c5-0 kNWETm link-accent"><a href="/web/20240326134621/https://yle.fi/a/74-20080873" class="MinimalHeadlines__Link-sc-79c54a90-10 bMuisZ visitable-link">Analyysi: Huuhkajien tuloksiin liitetään helposti iso harha – mitä Markku Kanervan aikana on oikeasti tapahtunut?</a></h3></div></li><li class="MinimalHeadlines__Item-sc-79c54a90-1 idtWDG"><div class="MinimalHeadlines__BulletContainer-sc-79c54a90-8 hKwNaR"><div class="MinimalHeadlines__BulletCell-sc-79c54a90-9 byezyD"><div aria-hidden="true" class="MinimalHeadlines__Index-sc-79c54a90-5 ffWqMg">2</div><div class="MinimalHeadlines__ListLine-sc-79c54a90-4 cqDOIP"></div></div></div><div class="MinimalHeadlines__Texts-sc-79c54a90-2 jYVeIk"><a href="/web/20240326134621/https://yle.fi/t/18-215554/fi" class="Tag__Label-sc-10f4ee8e-0 dpErSM MinimalHeadlines__StyledTag-sc-79c54a90-3 hLpKvJ">Ruoka</a><h3 class="Typography-sc-905807c5-0 kNWETm link-accent"><a href="/web/20240326134621/https://yle.fi/a/74-20080336" class="MinimalHeadlines__Link-sc-79c54a90-10 bMuisZ visitable-link">Pizzaa, karkkia, hampurilaisia ja sipsejä – näistä syistä huippu-urheilijatkin syövät ”roskaruokaa”</a></h3></div></li><li class="MinimalHeadlines__Item-sc-79c54a90-1 idtWDG"><div class="MinimalHeadlines__BulletContainer-sc-79c54a90-8 hKwNaR"><div class="MinimalHeadlines__BulletCell-sc-79c54a90-9 byezyD"><div aria-hidden="true" class="MinimalHeadlines__Index-sc-79c54a90-5 ffWqMg">3</div><div class="MinimalHeadlines__ListLine-sc-79c54a90-4 cqDOIP"></div></div></div><div class="MinimalHeadlines__Texts-sc-79c54a90-2 jYVeIk"><a href="/web/20240326134621/https://yle.fi/t/18-189456/fi" class="Tag__Label-sc-10f4ee8e-0 dpErSM MinimalHeadlines__StyledTag-sc-79c54a90-3 hLpKvJ">Jääkiekko</a><h3 class="Typography-sc-905807c5-0 kNWETm link-accent"><a href="/web/20240326134621/https://yle.fi/a/74-20080950" class="MinimalHeadlines__Link-sc-79c54a90-10 bMuisZ visitable-link">SM-liigavahti löi kilvellään vastustajaa kaulaan – tämän muutoksen takia selvisi ilman ulosjoa</a></h3></div></li><li class="MinimalHeadlines__Item-sc-79c54a90-1 idtWDG"><div class="MinimalHeadlines__BulletContainer-sc-79c54a90-8 hKwNaR"><div class="MinimalHeadlines__BulletCell-sc-79c54a90-9 byezyD"><div aria-hidden="true" class="MinimalHeadlines__Index-sc-79c54a90-5 ffWqMg">4</div><div class="MinimalHeadlines__ListLine-sc-79c54a90-4 cqDOIP"></div></div></div><div class="MinimalHeadlines__Texts-sc-79c54a90-2 jYVeIk"><a href="/web/20240326134621/https://yle.fi/t/18-189456/fi" class="Tag__Label-sc-10f4ee8e-0 dpErSM MinimalHeadlines__StyledTag-sc-79c54a90-3 hLpKvJ">Jääkiekko</a><h3 class="Typography-sc-905807c5-0 kNWETm link-accent"><a href="/web/20240326134621/https://yle.fi/a/74-20080699" class="MinimalHeadlines__Link-sc-79c54a90-10 bMuisZ visitable-link">HIFK:lla historian taakka takana – asiantuntija: ”Ei löydy Pelicansin tapaista peli-identiteettiä”</a></h3></div></li><li class="MinimalHeadlines__Item-sc-79c54a90-1 idtWDG"><div class="MinimalHeadlines__BulletContainer-sc-79c54a90-8 hKwNaR"><div class="MinimalHeadlines__BulletCell-sc-79c54a90-9 byezyD"><div aria-hidden="true" class="MinimalHeadlines__Index-sc-79c54a90-5 ffWqMg">5</div><div class="MinimalHeadlines__ListLine-sc-79c54a90-4 cqDOIP"></div></div></div><div class="MinimalHeadlines__Texts-sc-79c54a90-2 jYVeIk"><a href="/web/20240326134621/https://yle.fi/t/18-220090/fi" class="Tag__Label-sc-10f4ee8e-0 dpErSM MinimalHeadlines__StyledTag-sc-79c54a90-3 hLpKvJ">Urheilu</a><h3 class="Typography-sc-905807c5-0 kNWETm link-accent"><a href="/web/20240326134621/https://yle.fi/a/74-20080756" class="MinimalHeadlines__Link-sc-79c54a90-10 bMuisZ visitable-link">Ensimmäinen nainen pääsi maaliin lähes 40 vuotta vanhassa juoksukisassa – suomalaishuippu kertoo, miten kova suoritus on</a></h3></div></li><li class="MinimalHeadlines__Item-sc-79c54a90-1 idtWDG"><div class="MinimalHeadlines__BulletContainer-sc-79c54a90-8 hKwNaR"><div class="MinimalHeadlines__BulletCell-sc-79c54a90-9 byezyD"><div aria-hidden="true" class="MinimalHeadlines__Index-sc-79c54a90-5 ffWqMg">6</div></div></div><div class="MinimalHeadlines__Texts-sc-79c54a90-2 cQedTi"><a href="/web/20240326134621/https://yle.fi/t/18-210199/fi" class="Tag__Label-sc-10f4ee8e-0 dpErSM MinimalHeadlines__StyledTag-sc-79c54a90-3 hLpKvJ">Taitoluistelu</a><h3 class="Typography-sc-905807c5-0 kNWETm link-accent"><a href="/web/20240326134621/https://yle.fi/a/74-20080921" class="MinimalHeadlines__Link-sc-79c54a90-10 bMuisZ visitable-link">Jäätanssi on tällä hetkellä Suomen taitoluistelun ykköslaji – mitä suomalaisilta vaaditaan seuraavalle tasolle?</a></h3></div></li></ol></div></aside><aside class="GridSystem__GridCell-sc-59ad6967-0 SidebarLayout__SidebarItemContainer-sc-62834cb4-1 SJjbS imIATf"><h2 id="sb-most-recent" class="Typography-sc-905807c5-0 bMPfte SidebarLayout__SidebarItemHeader-sc-62834cb4-0 cxIXFb SidebarLayout__SidebarItemHeader-sc-62834cb4-0 cxIXFb">Tuoreimmat</h2><div class="MinimalHeadlines__Container-sc-79c54a90-0 cMuccD"><ol aria-labelledby="sb-most-recent"><li class="MinimalHeadlines__Item-sc-79c54a90-1 idtWDG"><div class="MinimalHeadlines__BulletContainer-sc-79c54a90-8 hKwNaR"><div class="MinimalHeadlines__BulletCell-sc-79c54a90-9 byezyD"><time class="DateTime___StyledTime-sc-f3193d7a-0 gdLaWp MinimalHeadlines__Date-sc-79c54a90-6 jsOWFj" datetime="2024-03-26T13:43:59+0200">13:43</time><div class="MinimalHeadlines__ListLine-sc-79c54a90-4 cqDOIZ"></div></div></div><div class="MinimalHeadlines__Texts-sc-79c54a90-2 jYVeIk"><a href="/web/20240326134621/https://yle.fi/t/18-189456/fi" class="Tag__Label-sc-10f4ee8e-0 dpErSM MinimalHeadlines__StyledTag-sc-79c54a90-3 hLpKvJ">Jääkiekko</a><h3 class="Typography-sc-905807c5-0 kNWETm link-accent"><a href="/web/20240326134621/https://yle.fi/a/74-20080950" class="MinimalHeadlines__Link-sc-79c54a90-10 bMuisZ visitable-link">SM-liigavahti löi kilvellään vastustajaa kaulaan – tämän 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idtWDG"><div class="MinimalHeadlines__BulletContainer-sc-79c54a90-8 hKwNaR"><div class="MinimalHeadlines__BulletCell-sc-79c54a90-9 byezyD"><time class="DateTime___StyledTime-sc-f3193d7a-0 gdLaWp MinimalHeadlines__Date-sc-79c54a90-6 jsOWFj" datetime="2024-03-26T10:30:36+0200">10:30</time><div class="MinimalHeadlines__ListLine-sc-79c54a90-4 cqDOIZ"></div></div></div><div class="MinimalHeadlines__Texts-sc-79c54a90-2 jYVeIk"><a href="/web/20240326134621/https://yle.fi/t/18-215554/fi" class="Tag__Label-sc-10f4ee8e-0 dpErSM MinimalHeadlines__StyledTag-sc-79c54a90-3 hLpKvJ">Ruoka</a><h3 class="Typography-sc-905807c5-0 kNWETm link-accent"><a href="/web/20240326134621/https://yle.fi/a/74-20080336" class="MinimalHeadlines__Link-sc-79c54a90-10 bMuisZ visitable-link">Pizzaa, karkkia, hampurilaisia ja sipsejä – näistä syistä huippu-urheilijatkin syövät ”roskaruokaa”</a></h3></div></li><li class="MinimalHeadlines__Item-sc-79c54a90-1 idtWDG"><div class="MinimalHeadlines__BulletContainer-sc-79c54a90-8 hKwNaR"><div class="MinimalHeadlines__BulletCell-sc-79c54a90-9 byezyD"><time class="DateTime___StyledTime-sc-f3193d7a-0 gdLaWp MinimalHeadlines__Date-sc-79c54a90-6 jsOWFj" datetime="2024-03-26T06:56:00+0200">6:56</time><div class="MinimalHeadlines__ListLine-sc-79c54a90-4 cqDOIZ"></div></div></div><div class="MinimalHeadlines__Texts-sc-79c54a90-2 jYVeIk"><a href="/web/20240326134621/https://yle.fi/t/18-215754/fi" class="Tag__Label-sc-10f4ee8e-0 dpErSM MinimalHeadlines__StyledTag-sc-79c54a90-3 hLpKvJ">Koripallo</a><h3 class="Typography-sc-905807c5-0 kNWETm link-accent"><a href="/web/20240326134621/https://yle.fi/a/74-20080896" class="MinimalHeadlines__Link-sc-79c54a90-10 bMuisZ visitable-link">Huippuvireinen Lauri Markkanen löi supertähti Luka Doncicin – Utah rämpii silti syvällä</a></h3></div></li><li class="MinimalHeadlines__Item-sc-79c54a90-1 idtWDG"><div class="MinimalHeadlines__BulletContainer-sc-79c54a90-8 hKwNaR"><div class="MinimalHeadlines__BulletCell-sc-79c54a90-9 byezyD"><time 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MinimalHeadlines__Date-sc-79c54a90-6 jsOWFj" datetime="2024-03-25T22:25:17+0200">25.3.</time><div class="MinimalHeadlines__ListLine-sc-79c54a90-4 cqDOIZ"></div></div></div><div class="MinimalHeadlines__Texts-sc-79c54a90-2 jYVeIk"><a href="/web/20240326134621/https://yle.fi/t/18-189456/fi" class="Tag__Label-sc-10f4ee8e-0 dpErSM MinimalHeadlines__StyledTag-sc-79c54a90-3 hLpKvJ">Jääkiekko</a><h3 class="Typography-sc-905807c5-0 kNWETm link-accent"><a href="/web/20240326134621/https://yle.fi/a/74-20080877" class="MinimalHeadlines__Link-sc-79c54a90-10 bMuisZ visitable-link">Eemeli Suomi laukoi Ilvekselle toistaiseksi kauden tärkeimmän maalin – Pennanen: ”Soturi kampesi itsensä takaisin”</a></h3></div></li><li class="MinimalHeadlines__Item-sc-79c54a90-1 idtWDG"><div class="MinimalHeadlines__BulletContainer-sc-79c54a90-8 hKwNaR"><div class="MinimalHeadlines__BulletCell-sc-79c54a90-9 byezyD"><time class="DateTime___StyledTime-sc-f3193d7a-0 gdLaWp MinimalHeadlines__Date-sc-79c54a90-6 jsOWFj" datetime="2024-03-25T20:11:14+0200">25.3.</time><div class="MinimalHeadlines__ListLine-sc-79c54a90-4 cqDOIZ"></div></div></div><div class="MinimalHeadlines__Texts-sc-79c54a90-2 jYVeIk"><a href="/web/20240326134621/https://yle.fi/t/18-220090/fi" class="Tag__Label-sc-10f4ee8e-0 dpErSM MinimalHeadlines__StyledTag-sc-79c54a90-3 hLpKvJ">Urheilu</a><h3 class="Typography-sc-905807c5-0 kNWETm link-accent"><a href="/web/20240326134621/https://yle.fi/a/74-20080756" class="MinimalHeadlines__Link-sc-79c54a90-10 bMuisZ visitable-link">Ensimmäinen nainen pääsi maaliin lähes 40 vuotta vanhassa juoksukisassa – suomalaishuippu kertoo, miten kova suoritus on</a></h3></div></li><li class="MinimalHeadlines__Item-sc-79c54a90-1 idtWDG"><div class="MinimalHeadlines__BulletContainer-sc-79c54a90-8 hKwNaR"><div class="MinimalHeadlines__BulletCell-sc-79c54a90-9 byezyD"><time class="DateTime___StyledTime-sc-f3193d7a-0 gdLaWp MinimalHeadlines__Date-sc-79c54a90-6 jsOWFj" datetime="2024-03-25T19:58:57+0200">25.3.</time><div class="MinimalHeadlines__ListLine-sc-79c54a90-4 cqDOIZ"></div></div></div><div class="MinimalHeadlines__Texts-sc-79c54a90-2 jYVeIk"><a href="/web/20240326134621/https://yle.fi/t/18-189456/fi" class="Tag__Label-sc-10f4ee8e-0 dpErSM MinimalHeadlines__StyledTag-sc-79c54a90-3 hLpKvJ">Jääkiekko</a><h3 class="Typography-sc-905807c5-0 kNWETm link-accent"><a href="/web/20240326134621/https://yle.fi/a/74-20080878" class="MinimalHeadlines__Link-sc-79c54a90-10 bMuisZ visitable-link">Ässien päävalmentaja vaihtuu – Jarno Pikkarainen palkattiin kaksivuotisella sopimuksella</a></h3></div></li><li class="MinimalHeadlines__Item-sc-79c54a90-1 idtWDG"><div class="MinimalHeadlines__BulletContainer-sc-79c54a90-8 hKwNaR"><div class="MinimalHeadlines__BulletCell-sc-79c54a90-9 byezyD"><time class="DateTime___StyledTime-sc-f3193d7a-0 gdLaWp MinimalHeadlines__Date-sc-79c54a90-6 jsOWFj" datetime="2024-03-25T19:20:18+0200">25.3.</time><div 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<script type="text/javascript">window.__INITIAL__STATE__={"pageData":{"article":{"properties":["audio:enabled","priority:normal"],"headline":{"image":{"alt":"Pohjanpalo ja Hradecky pettyneinä.","source":"PA Images via Getty Images","aspect":1.7777777777777777,"caption":"Serie B:n Veneziassa pelaava Joel Pohjanpalo (kesk.) ja Bundesliigan kärkijoukkueen Leverkusenin maalivahti ja kapteeni Lukas Hradecky (oik.) poistuivat kentältä pettyneinä, kun Suomi oli hävinnyt Walesille maalein 1–4.","id":"39-126103365fcdc0057eb3","type":"image","alts":[{"language":"fin","value":"Pohjanpalo ja Hradecky pettyneinä."}],"blurhash":"L5AKNwRcA2rj03bW%0yB^.bmVqs#","tags":[{"label":[{"language":"fin","value":"jalkapallo"},{"language":"swe","value":"fotboll"}],"extId":"18-205598"},{"label":[{"language":"eng","value":"Suomen miesten jalkapallomaajoukkue"},{"language":"fin","value":"Huuhkajat"},{"language":"swe","value":"Finlands herrlandslag i 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Urheilu"},"content":[{"level":1,"text":"Analyysi: Huuhkajien tuloksiin liitetään helposti iso harha – mitä Markku Kanervan aikana on oikeasti tapahtunut?","type":"heading"},{"alt":"Pohjanpalo ja Hradecky pettyneinä.","source":"PA Images via Getty Images","aspect":1.7777777777777777,"caption":"Serie B:n Veneziassa pelaava Joel Pohjanpalo (kesk.) ja Bundesliigan kärkijoukkueen Leverkusenin maalivahti ja kapteeni Lukas Hradecky (oik.) poistuivat kentältä pettyneinä, kun Suomi oli hävinnyt Walesille maalein 1–4.","id":"39-126103365fcdc0057eb3","type":"image","alts":[{"language":"fin","value":"Pohjanpalo ja Hradecky pettyneinä."}],"blurhash":"L5AKNwRcA2rj03bW%0yB^.bmVqs#","tags":[{"label":[{"language":"fin","value":"jalkapallo"},{"language":"swe","value":"fotboll"}],"extId":"18-205598"},{"label":[{"language":"eng","value":"Suomen miesten jalkapallomaajoukkue"},{"language":"fin","value":"Huuhkajat"},{"language":"swe","value":"Finlands herrlandslag i 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Huuhkajat on pelannut päävalmentajansa alaisuudessa 56 kilpailullista ottelua, kun mukaan lasketaan vuoden 2021 EM-kisat, MM- ja EM-karsinnat sekä Kansojen liigan ottelut.","type":"text"},{"text":"Näistä 56 ottelusta Huuhkajilla on 28 voittoa, 6 tasapeliä ja 22 tappiota. Joukkue on tehnyt 69 ja päästänyt 56 maalia, ollut ensi kertaa arvokisoissa ja nostanut itseensä kohdistuvia odotuksia.","type":"text"},{"text":"– Iso kuva on, että Markku Kanerva nosti maajoukkueen uudelle tasolle **Hans Backen** ja **Mixu Paatelaisen** aikakausien jälkeen. Se näkyy käytännössä kaikilla mittareilla, Yle Urheilun jalkapalloasiantuntija **Miika Nuutinen** sanoo.","type":"text"},{"text":"Mutta mitä maajoukkueen kohentuneiden tulosten taakse kätkeytyy ja miten tulokset ovat ennen kaikkea kehittyneet Kanervan seitsemän vuotta kestäneellä päävalmentajakaudella?","type":"text"},{"text":"Kanervan asema on ollut puheenaihe sen jälkeen, kun Huuhkajat hävisi viime torstaina Kansojen liigan jatkokarsinnassa Walesille maalein 1–4. Koska kisalippu ensi kesän Saksan EM-kisoihin karkasi, moni on ollut valmis etsimään Kanervan tilalle uuden päävalmentajan.","type":"text"},{"displayStyle":"normal","alt":"Markku Kanerva kuvattuna Wales-ottelussa viime torstaina.","source":"Emmi Korhonen \u002F Lehtikuva","aspect":1.4988290398126465,"caption":"Markku Kanerva valoi suojatteihinsa uskoa Cardiffin stadionilla. 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Loppuvuodesta maajoukkue pelaa Kansojen liigan B-tason lohkossa, jossa muut maat ovat Englanti, Irlanti ja Kreikka.","type":"text"},{"text":"Sijoitus kahden parhaan joukossa avaisi varasauman päästä karsimaan paikasta vuoden 2026 MM-kisoissa, jos joukkue ei lunasta kisalippua vanhan mallin karsinnoista.","type":"text"},{"text":"Mutta onko päävalmentajan vaihdos ajankohtainen juuri nyt? Onko Huuhkajat riittävän laadukas joukkue, että siltä voidaan odottaa arvokisapaikkaa kerta toisensa jälkeen?","type":"text"},{"text":"Nuutisen mukaan pitää tapahtua paljon, että Huuhkajat nousee arvokisojen vakiokävijäksi – oli sitten valmennusvastuussa Kanerva tai joku muu.","type":"text"},{"text":"Pelaajamateriaali ei riitä","level":2,"type":"heading"},{"text":"– Se, että Huuhkajat kilpailee kisapaikasta, vaatii aina ylisuorittamista pelaajamateriaaliin nähden. Joukkueella on kaksi pelaajaa, jotka pelaavat Euroopan top 5 -sarjoissa. Se on aika karu tilanne, Nuutinen sanoo.","type":"text"},{"text":"Euroopan kovimmissa sarjoissa pelaavat kaksi suomalaista löytyvät Saksan Bundesliigasta. Maalivahti **Lukas Hradecky** edustaa pelipaikkansa absoluuttista huippua ja on kipparoimassa Bayer Leverkusenin seurahistoriansa ensimmäiseen Saksan mestaruuteen. Keskikenttäpelaaja **Fredrik Jensen** pelaa Bundesliigaa FC Augsburgissa.","type":"text"},{"text":"EM-kisoista niin ikään pudonneiden Norjan ja Ruotsin pelaajamateriaali on aivan toista luokkaa kuin Huuhkajilla. Viime viikon ystävyysotteluissa molemmilla naapurimailla oli avauskokoonpanossaan yhdeksän pelaajaa Euroopan top 5 -liigoista (Englannin, Espanjan, Italian, Saksan ja Ranskan pääsarjat).","type":"text"},{"infogramId":"2f2d7d6d-b170-47d1-8b64-f9c75c994617","type":"infogram"},{"text":"Pelkästään Ruotsin vaihtopenkiltä löytyi kolme pelaajaa, jotka pelaavat ammatikseen Espanjan, Ranskan ja Englannin liigoissa.","type":"text"},{"text":"– Norjalla on kaksi maailman top 10 -pelaajaa (Manchester Cityn **Erling Haaland** ja Arsenalin **Martin Ödegaard**). Ruotsin pelaajat pelaavat käytännössä kaikki Euroopan isoissa sarjoissa, ja heillä on kärjessä yksi Euroopan kuumimmista hyökkääjistä, Nuutinen viittaa Portugalin liigassa 22 maalia Sporting Lissabonille mättäneeseen **Viktor Gyökeresiin**.","type":"text"},{"text":"– Huuhkajien viime vuosien tulokset ovat asettaneet riman korkealle. Se ehkä vähän hämärtää tätä realismia.","type":"text"},{"displayStyle":"normal","alt":"Viktor Gyökeres on huudattanut lissabonilaisyleisöä tällä kaudella. Hän johtaa Portugalin liigan maalipörssiä 22 osumallaan.","source":"Gualter Fatia\u002FGetty Images","aspect":1.5094726062467998,"caption":"Viktor Gyökeres on huudattanut lissabonilaisyleisöä tällä kaudella. Hän johtaa Portugalin liigan maalipörssiä 22 osumallaan.","id":"39-12625456601e3e73d60e","type":"image","alts":[{"language":"fin","value":"Viktor Gyökeres on huudattanut lissabonilaisyleisöä tällä kaudella. 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Mitä korkeampi lukema on, sitä todennäköisemmin maalijuhlat nähdään. Maaliodottama pystyy ennustamaan menestystä pitkässä juoksussa, koska usein parempia paikkoja luonut joukkue voittaa enemmän. Voit lukea aiheesta laajemmin [tästä linkistä](https:\u002F\u002Fyle.fi\u002Fa\u002F74-20007220).","type":"text"},{"text":"Tilastopalvelu Bollan mukaan Huuhkajien Kanervan alaisuudessa saavuttamista 28 voitosta seitsemän on tullut maaliodottamalla, joka on ollut ottelussa vastustajaa huonompi. Huuhkajien 22 tappiosta kolme on tullut vastustajaa paremmalla maaliodottamalla. Kuudesta tasapelistä neljässä vastustaja on ollut Huuhkajia parempi, jos mittarina käytetään maaliodottamaa.","type":"text"},{"infogramId":"7225e7cf-0530-4d72-b6b5-11b9639d292d","type":"infogram"},{"text":"Kun Huuhkajat eteni vuoden 2021 EM-kisoihin, joukkueen maaliodottama oli vastustajaa parempi jokaisessa voittoon päättyneessä kuudessa karsintaottelussa.","type":"text"},{"text":"EM-kisoissa Huuhkajat sai jokaisessa kolmessa ottelussaan aikaiseksi yhden laukauksen maalia kohti. Yksi niistä riitti voittoon Tanskasta, vaikka juutit voittivat maalintekoyritykset 23–1 ja laukaukset maalia kohti 6–1.","type":"text"},{"text":"Hradecky torjui **Christian Eriksenin** sydänpysähdyksen varjostamassa ottelussa myös rangaistuspotkun. Tanskan maaliodottama oli 2,34 ja Suomen 0,39.","type":"text"},{"type":"audio","id":"1-68771028","programResponse":{"publications":[{"service":{"type":"Service","id":"yle-areena"},"publisher":{"type":"Service","id":"yle-areena"},"startTime":"2024-03-25T22:43:00+02:00","geoRestriction":"None","type":"Publication","id":"4-68771029","kind":"Ondemand","protectionLevel":{"key":"none","type":"ContentProtectionPolicy","id":"22-0"},"media":{"downloadable":false,"type":"Audio","duration":"PT68S","audioTracks":[{"format":"mono","type":"AudioTrack","duration":"PT68S","language":"fin"},{"format":"stereo","type":"AudioTrack","duration":"PT68S","language":"fin"}],"id":"78-db18f83fba2b449ab4d70e9c3c4b1bc4","available":true}}],"title":{"main":{"fin":"Miika Nuutinen arvioi Huuhkajien aikaa Markku Kanervan alaisuudessa"}},"id":"1-68771028"}},{"text":"Vuodesta 2019 Huuhkajat on pelannut yhdeksän ottelua niin sanottuja A-kategorian maita vastaan. Niissä Suomi on hävinnyt maalintekoyritykset 56–151, laukaukset maalia kohti 8–54 ja maaliodottaman 0,64–1,83.","type":"text"},{"text":"– Suomi ei ole noussut tasolle, jossa se pystyisi pelillisesti kilpailemaan Euroopan huippumaita vastaan. Markku Kanervan ajan tulokset ovat perustuneet siihen, että joukkue on pystynyt voittamaan heikompia ja samantasoisia maita riittävän hyvällä prosentilla ja kääntämään tasaiset ottelut edukseen, Nuutinen sanoo.","type":"text"},{"text":"Jos tarkastelu rajataan Suomen kanssa Kansojen liigan B-tasolla pelaaviin ja pelanneisiin maihin, Huuhkajat on pelannut vuodesta 2020 19 ottelua. Näissä se on tehnyt 25 ja päästänyt 24 maalia, vaikka sen maaliodottama on 1,32 ja vastustajien 1,63. Kestomenestykseen päästäkseen Huuhkajien pitää pystyä kääntämään odotusarvot edukseen.","type":"text"},{"text":"– Siihen Kanerva tiimeineen on pyrkinyt pelillisillä muutoksilla EM-kisojen jälkeen, mutta täysin toimivaa sapluunaa ei ole näissä karsinnoissa löytynyt. Siitä kertovat lukuisat pelijärjestelmän ja kokoonpanon muutokset karsintojen kuluessa. Tilastollisesti mitään jyrkkää laskusuhdannetta ei ole kuitenkaan nähtävissä, kun peilataan Kanervan aikakautta, Nuutinen sanoo.","type":"text"},{"text":"Nuutinen korostaa, että kriittiselle keskustelulle Huuhkajien pelitavasta ja Kanervan asemasta on sijansa, mutta keskustelua on syytä käydä realiteettien kautta.","type":"text"},{"text":"– Peli kertoo lopulta kaiken. Tällä kertaa Huuhkajat ei onnistunut ylisuorittamaan sillä tavalla, että se olisi mennyt kisoihin. Joukkueen pelaamisessa on ollut selviä heikkouksia. Etenkin murheellisen erikoistilannesaldon on parannuttava. Keskustelu käy kovilla kierroksilla myös siksi, että Huuhkajat sai jo hyvät asemat karsintalohkossa, mutta oli ratkaisevilla hetkillä heikko.","type":"text"},{"text":"– Sanon kuitenkin, että nykyisessä pelaajatilanteessa Suomen kisapaikkaa ei voi pitää standardina. 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