Mysteel：浅析4月常州市场工业线材基本面状况-我的钢铁网

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<p>图1：2022-2024年常州硬线价格走势图（单位：元/吨）</p> <p><img style="display: block; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;" src="//img02.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2024/04/07/ed462a9186054e25b7fda10a6932153e.png" alt="" width="600" height="360" /></p> <p>数据来源：钢联数据</p> <p>从价格方面来看，常州硬线一季度均价呈震荡偏弱运行态势，并在3月末达到谷底后小幅反弹。究其原因，首先是今年节后需求恢复速度明显弱于历年同期，受市场回款不及预期和以及终端开工进度缓慢的影响，市场成交受阻，贸易商为去库套现操作增加。其次春节过后，不光大部分钢厂恢复生产，随着南方开工时间较早，北材南下，市场出现供大于求的局面。</p> <p>二、市场需求逐步释放</p> <p>图2：2022-2024年工业线材成交量（单位：吨）</p> <p><img style="display: block; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;" src="//img04.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2024/04/07/7c3b434e281f464e969dcf1cabc4a38f.png" alt="" width="600" height="360" /></p> <p>数据来源：钢联数据</p> <p>从需求方面来看，2022年和2023年自节后成交均有小幅增加，而2024年成交增速明显慢于历年同期，且成交好转拐点相比历年出现的较为迟缓。传统的金三银四对今年似乎并不适用，一方面受春节较晚的影响，下游并未完全复工，3月需求恢复程度较差；另一方面钢厂资源集中到货，商户库存压力较大，贸易商低价出货但成交不及预期。进入4月，随着价格的止跌反弹，下游采购积极性由弱转强，市场销量将有望继续释放。</p> <p>三、库存压力有所缓解</p> <p>图3：2022-2024年常州库存走势图（单位：万吨）</p> <p><img style="display: block; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;" src="//img01.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2024/04/07/f4d415e0f97a4820a080d470923c476f.png" alt="" width="600" height="309" /></p> <p>数据来源：钢联数据</p> <p>从库存方面来看，3月最后一周常州社会库存约0.46万吨，较上周下降0.01万吨，全月增加了0.5万吨，但幅度较小。一季度社会库存相较同期压力不大，且随着部分钢厂检修减产，期货反弹带动市场信心好转，终端进行补库，社会库存有所减少。随着天气转暖，4月份即将迎来施工旺季，社会库存有望得到积极且有效的消化。</p> <p>四、预计4月份常州工业线材价格小幅上涨</p> <p>一季度以来，常州工业线材价格延续跌势，近期随着原料价格下跌、钢厂利润改善，钢厂生产积极性有所恢复，但受库存以及资金压力影响暂时难以大规模复产，库存有望继续去化；3、4月份作为传统旺季，虽然3月份需求恢复缓慢，但据<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>Mysteel</a>调研显示，预计四月下游企业复工数量有所增加，需求会有所回暖；宏观方面，房地产市场利好政策频出，财政政策支持力度加大，或有效促进市场供需平衡。综合分析，4月常州工业线价格存在支撑，仍有小幅上涨空间</p> <p> </p> <p> </p>  <br /> </div> </div> </article> <article class="content-block m-copyRight"> 资讯编辑：尹思如 021-26090144 </br> 资讯监督：温晓娟 021-26093319 </br> 资讯投诉：陈杰 021-26093100 </br> </article> <article class="content-block m-copyRight h-statement"> <p 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