Publications by author | Economic Growth Center

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node-teaser--horizontal color-scheme-egc-black node--has-page-image" data-js="node-publication"> <header class="node-teaser__header"> <div class="node-teaser__heading"> <a href="/research/us-china-trade-war-and-global-reallocations"><span>The US-China Trade War and Global Reallocations</span></a> </div> <div class="node-teaser__journal-title"> American Economic Review: Insights</div> <div class="node-teaser__metadata"> <div class="node-teaser__publish-date"> June 2024 </div> <div class="node-teaser__author-links"> Author(s) <a href="/publications/author/Pablo%20Fajgelbaum"><span>Pablo Fajgelbaum</span></a>, <a href="/people/pinelopi-goldberg" hreflang="en"><span>Pinelopi Koujianou Goldberg</span></a>, <a href="/publications/author/Patrick%20Kennedy"><span>Patrick Kennedy</span></a>, <a href="/people/amit-khandelwal" hreflang="en"><span>Amit Khandelwal</span></a> & <a href="/publications/author/Daria%20Taglioni"><span>Daria Taglioni</span></a> </div> </div> </header> <div class="node-teaser__content"> <details class="node-teaser__abstract"> <summary>Abstract</summary> <p>The US-China trade war created net export opportunities rather than simply shifting trade across destinations. Many "bystander" countries grew their exports of taxed products into the rest of the world (excluding the United States and China). Country-specific components of tariff elasticities, rather than specialization patterns, drove large cross-country variation in export growth of tariff-exposed products. The elasticities of exports to US-Chinese tariffs identify whether a country's exports complement or substitute the United States or China and its supply curve's slope. Countries that operate along downward-sloping supplies whose exports substitute (complement) the United States and China are among the larger (smaller) beneficiaries of the trade war.</p> </details> </div> </article> </div> <div class="view__row view__row--1"> <article class="node-teaser node-teaser--publication node-teaser--horizontal color-scheme-egc-black node--has-page-image" data-js="node-publication"> <header class="node-teaser__header"> <div class="node-teaser__heading"> <a href="/research/us-china-trade-war-how-did-some-bystander-countries-come-out-ahead"><span>In the US-China trade war, how did some “bystander” countries come out ahead?</span></a> </div> <div class="node-teaser__journal-title"> American Economic Review: Insights</div> <div class="node-teaser__metadata"> <div class="node-teaser__publish-date"> June 2024 </div> <div class="node-teaser__author-links"> Author(s) <a href="/publications/author/Pablo%20Fajgelbaum"><span>Pablo Fajgelbaum</span></a>, <a href="/people/pinelopi-goldberg" hreflang="en"><span>Pinelopi Koujianou Goldberg</span></a>, <a href="/publications/author/Patrick%20Kennedy"><span>Patrick Kennedy</span></a>, <a href="/people/amit-khandelwal" hreflang="en"><span>Amit Khandelwal</span></a> & <a href="/publications/author/Daria%20Taglioni"><span>Daria Taglioni</span></a> </div> </div> </header> <div class="node-teaser__content"> </div> </article> </div> <div class="view__row view__row--2"> <article class="node-teaser node-teaser--publication node-teaser--horizontal color-scheme-egc-black node--has-page-image" data-js="node-publication"> <header class="node-teaser__header"> <div class="node-teaser__heading"> <a href="/research/economic-impacts-us-china-trade-war"><span>The Economic Impacts of the US-China Trade War</span></a> </div> <div class="node-teaser__journal-title"> Annual Review of Economics</div> <div class="node-teaser__metadata"> <div class="node-teaser__publish-date"> August 2022 </div> <div class="node-teaser__author-links"> Author(s) <a href="/people/amit-khandelwal" hreflang="en"><span>Amit Khandelwal</span></a> & <a href="/publications/author/Pablo%20Fajgelbaum"><span>Pablo Fajgelbaum</span></a> </div> </div> </header> <div class="node-teaser__content"> <details class="node-teaser__abstract"> <summary>Abstract</summary> <p>In 2018, the United States launched a trade war with China, marking an abrupt departure from its historical leadership in integrating global markets. By late 2019, the United States had imposed tariffs on roughly $350 billion of Chinese imports, and China had retaliated on $100 billion of US exports. Economists have used a diversity of data and methods to assess the impacts of the trade war on the United States, China, and other countries. This article reviews what we have learned to date from this work.</p> </details> </div> </article> </div> <div class="view__row view__row--3"> <article class="node-teaser node-teaser--publication node-teaser--horizontal color-scheme-egc-black node--has-page-image" data-js="node-publication"> <header class="node-teaser__header"> <div class="node-teaser__heading"> <a href="/research/optimal-lockdown-commuting-network"><span>Optimal Lockdown in a Commuting Network</span></a> </div> <div class="node-teaser__journal-title"> American Economic Review: Insights</div> <div class="node-teaser__metadata"> <div class="node-teaser__publish-date"> December 2021 </div> <div class="node-teaser__author-links"> Author(s) <a href="/people/amit-khandelwal" hreflang="en"><span>Amit Khandelwal</span></a>, <a href="/publications/author/Pablo%20Fajgelbaum"><span>Pablo Fajgelbaum</span></a>, <a href="/publications/author/Wookun%20Kim"><span>Wookun Kim</span></a>, <a href="/publications/author/Cristiano%20Mantovani"><span>Cristiano Mantovani</span></a> & <a href="/publications/author/Edouard%20Schaal"><span>Edouard Schaal</span></a> </div> </div> </header> <div class="node-teaser__content"> <details class="node-teaser__abstract"> <summary>Abstract</summary> <p>We study optimal dynamic lockdowns against COVID-19 within a commuting network. Our framework integrates canonical spatial epidemiology and trade models and is applied to cities with varying initial viral spread: Seoul, Daegu, and the New York City metropolitan area (NYM). Spatial lockdowns achieve substantially smaller income losses than uniform lockdowns. In the NYM and Daegu—with large initial shocks—the optimal lockdown restricts inflows to central districts before gradual relaxation, while in Seoul it imposes low temporal but large spatial variation. Actual commuting reductions were too weak in central locations in Daegu and the NYM and too strong across Seoul.</p> </details> </div> </article> </div> <div class="view__row view__row--4"> <article class="node-teaser node-teaser--publication node-teaser--horizontal color-scheme-egc-black node--has-page-image" data-js="node-publication"> <header class="node-teaser__header"> <div class="node-teaser__heading"> <a href="/research/return-protectionism"><span>The Return to Protectionism</span></a> </div> <div class="node-teaser__journal-title"> Quarterly Journal of Economics</div> <div class="node-teaser__metadata"> <div class="node-teaser__publish-date"> November 2019 </div> <div class="node-teaser__author-links"> Author(s) <a href="/people/pinelopi-goldberg" hreflang="en"><span>Pinelopi Koujianou Goldberg</span></a>, <a href="/publications/author/Pablo%20Fajgelbaum"><span>Pablo Fajgelbaum</span></a>, <a href="/publications/author/Patrick%20Kennedy"><span>Patrick Kennedy</span></a> & <a href="/people/amit-khandelwal" hreflang="en"><span>Amit Khandelwal</span></a> </div> </div> </header> <div class="node-teaser__content"> <details class="node-teaser__abstract"> <summary>Abstract</summary> <p>After decades of supporting free trade, in 2018 the United States raised import tariffs and major trade partners retaliated. We analyze the short-run impact of this return to protectionism on the U.S. economy. Import and retaliatory tariffs caused large declines in imports and exports. Prices of imports targeted by tariffs did not fall, implying complete pass-through of tariffs to duty-inclusive prices. The resulting losses to U.S. consumers and firms that buy imports was $51 billion, or 0.27% of GDP. We embed the estimated trade elasticities in a general-equilibrium model of the U.S. economy. After accounting for tariff revenue and gains to domestic producers, the aggregate real income loss was $7.2 billion, or 0.04% of GDP. Import tariffs favored sectors concentrated in politically competitive counties, and the model implies that tradeable-sector workers in heavily Republican counties were the most negatively affected due to the retaliatory tariffs. 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