Mysteel：铁合金全品种分析师视点（12月19日）-我的钢铁网

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try { ap.audio.addEventListener('ended', function () { ap.audio.play() setTimeout(function(){ ap.audio.currentTime=0 ap.audio.pause() if($('.merquee-txt').outerWidth()>$('.sub-t').outerWidth()){ $('.merquee-txt').addClass('merquee-move') } },400) }, false); } catch (error) { } try { document.addEventListener('visibilitychange', function() { if (document.hidden) { // 关闭背景音乐 ap.pause() } else { // 开启背景音乐 // ap.play() } }) } catch (err) { } if($('.merquee-txt').outerWidth()>$('.sub-t').outerWidth()){ $('.merquee-txt').addClass('merquee-move') } </script> <div data-val="4701" id="article-content"> <div id="text"> <p><img src="https://img02.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2024/12/20/0853311.jpg" alt="" width="600" height="160" /></p> <p>【北方<a href='https://thj.m.mysteel.com/meng/' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>锰矿</a>】</p> <p>本周锰矿市场偏稳运行，下游询盘积极性及期货盘面表现较弱，锰矿成交偏少，下游询盘下压，矿商低价出货意愿较低，成交持续博弈，价格暂无明显波动。发运及到港方面，近期南非对中国保持稳定发运，澳洲暂未对中国发运，加蓬少量且主要以小船发运，整体压力较小，到港上天津港南非维持少量到港，加蓬近3周处于到港空窗期，港口整体库存持续下行，且工厂需求高位，港口疏港量出现增加，部分工厂期货到港后陆续提货，库存从前期高位开始向下，预计本周库存还将继续下行，综合来看锰矿价格受下游合金制约，盘面表现不佳，导致工厂采购意愿一般，预计在盘面无明显好转下，锰矿还将继续保持僵持状态。</p> <p>【南方锰矿】</p> <p>近日钦州港锰矿价格震荡运行，受硅锰期货盘面下行影响，下游询盘压价，贸易商低价出货意愿不强，整体交投情绪一般。半碳酸价格在34-35元/吨度，加蓬价格41-42元/吨度，南非中铁价格36-37元/吨度，南非高铁29.5元/吨度附近，整体波动范围较小。半碳酸价格短期保持坚挺，后期受分矿种库存影响价格走势不一。</p> <p>【硅锰】</p> <p>内蒙硅锰：</p> <p>本周市场震荡运行，成本端锰矿备货接近尾声，矿价盘整，<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-968-----050106-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>化工焦</a>价格近半个月暂无波动预期，结算电价个别工厂微涨，合金成本支撑尚可，开工方面，工厂开工基本稳定，个别前期投产的炉子产量逐渐增加，暂未达到正常水平，年底前仍有个别工厂炉子存在点火预期，产量预计仍有增加空间，钢厂端，主流钢招6350元/吨的价格较为符合市场预期，其他钢厂陆续定价，最新定价在6320元/吨，承兑含税上下，观望其他钢厂定价以及合金冬储情况。</p> <p>宁夏硅锰：</p> <p>硅锰市场盘整偏弱运行，期货震荡下跌，现货报价混乱，西北主流报价围绕5950-6100元/吨。厂家除长协订单外，出货略有不畅，硅锰成本走高，原料端锰矿价格下压略有难度，拉矿运费小幅抬升。开工方面，山西个别厂限产，产量小幅下降，宁夏开工较稳定。</p> <p>下游来看，河钢硅锰定价，华东个别钢厂尚未定价，预期在6300-6350元/吨承兑。</p> <p>整体来看，硅锰市场短期盘整偏弱运行，开工率维持高位，硅锰价格短暂混乱波动。</p> <p>【电解锰】</p> <p>电解锰市场稳中偏强运行，会后行情持续保持坚挺态势，散单报价围绕在12500元/吨左右，实单成交多围绕在12300-12400元/吨。需求端高价接受程度有限，供需格局依旧，部分业者对于后市担忧情绪显现，需求短期释放完毕，冬储备货陆续完成，年末市场暂无其他利好信号释放；出口市场临近圣诞节，待假氛围明显，现货市场活跃度较低，成交有待跟进，预计后续锰片市场货源流通或将紧俏，还要持续观望接下来冬储备货表现以及新的钢招入场指引。</p> <p>【硫酸锰】</p> <p>硫酸锰市场保持盘整偏弱运行，原料端硫酸市场持续高位坚挺运行，支撑硫酸锰行情暂无向下波动趋势，下游市场运行依持续疲软，终端需求采购意愿较弱，多数则为长协，实单成交多以刚需为主，12月C厂需求以及海外均有小幅下降，对硫酸锰的需求进一步减弱，临近年末，部分硫酸锰企业控产、检修，为明年订单做排产准备，今日电池级硫酸锰价格为6000-6200元/吨，<a href='https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/siliao/' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>饲料</a>级硫酸锰价格在3000-3200元/吨。</p> <p>【锰铁】 </p> <p>高碳锰铁底部成交价格小幅上调50元/吨，钢厂备货积极，70高锰现货偏少，多需要排单。贸易商采购积极，整体需求有所上涨，部分厂家有挺价情绪，主流成交暂稳。中低碳锰铁方面，中低锰钢招后整体价格偏强，现货紧张，多以接单生产或长协为主。综合来看，锰铁市场短期内平稳运行。</p> <p>【富锰渣】 </p> <p>富锰渣市场价格本周偏强运行，各地区富锰渣成交价格均有上调0.5-1元/吨度，厂家生产积极性较高，山西地区近期新增40-42度产能月产9000吨，成交方面，目前下游采购按需进行，辽宁地区40度富锰渣报价43-44元/吨度，宁夏地区38度报价42-43元吨度，山西地区28度富锰渣报价28.5-29元/吨度，湖北地区30度富锰渣报价32.5元/吨度。 </p> <p>【<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-968-----030301-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>硅铁</a>】</p> <p>现货端：硅铁市场弱势，观望情绪浓烈。硅铁主产区72硅铁自然块现金含税出厂5850-6050元/吨，75硅铁价格报6300-6400元/吨。河南贸易商现货市场72硅铁自然块不含税价格5700-5750元/吨，75自然块不含税价格6200元/吨左右。</p> <p>供应方面：硅铁生产企业生产基本正常，厂家库存不多，市场流通资源相对一般。<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-968-----050103-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>兰炭价格</a>持稳运行，神木市场小料价格802-900元/吨。</p> <p>需求方面：下游钢厂现在多完成订单采购，仍有部分刚需采购，但仍然没有过多的订单，所以目前来看，年前囤货现象仍未发生，而市场贸易商也谨慎观望，氛围较为平静，市场需求处于低位。12月17日福建某钢厂硅铁招标价格6600元/吨，数量1500吨，半承兑半现金含税到厂。12月17日江苏某钢厂硅铁招标价格6580元/吨，数量700吨，承兑含税到厂。</p> <p>总体来说，厂家库存不明显，现货流通资源一般，贸易商或存在一定的库存压力，由于下游企业订单不多，贸易商为了在年前降低库存压力，或有让利促进成交的情况出现，预计硅铁现货价格以震荡概率较大。</p> <p>【金属镁】</p> <p>本周镁合金市场表现相对平静，供需双方仍保持观望情绪，市场价格波动幅度暂不大。成交情况略显一般。从市场供需面来看，下游需求状况持续乏力，终端客户及采购商跟进较为缓慢，多按需少量补货为主，备货意愿不强；考虑当前价位较低及收储托底支撑，降幅空间有限。近期镁锭走势僵持平稳运行为主，整体行情未有明显突破。</p> <p>【钒】</p> <p>钒市大厂原料签单较为顺利，但由于钢招价格继续承压，市场情绪表现一般，钢厂采购目前暂未表现冬储节奏，市场目前震荡空间有限，片钒散货成交僵持于7.3万元/吨，钒氮合金招标价格围绕现金11.1-11.3万元/吨，钒铁厂家报价围绕现金8.2-8.3万元/吨附近，大厂货源报价围绕8.3-8.4万元/吨，关注后续招标定价。</p> <p>【钨】</p> <p>钨价僵持整理，供方出货情绪下挺市受阻，需方议价情绪下备货谨慎，市场整体采买维持刚需策略，成交商谈僵持横盘观望。65%黑钨精矿价格报14.3万元/标吨，需求端未有明确进展，市场议价气氛较多，高位成交受阻。仲钨酸铵（APT）价格报21万元/吨，受市场供需博弈与宏观不确定性的扰动，贸易商心态存异，交投平平，主流重心参考钨企长单报价。钨粉价格报314元/公斤，碳化钨粉价格报310元/公斤，成本端影响稍有松动，需求端进场补库备货积极性一般，市场交投商谈缺乏热情，按需观望横盘。废钨价格短期偏稳整理，原生料僵持气氛传导，市场出货与采买策略谨慎，行情商谈重心区间小幅波动。</p> <p>【钛】</p> <p>国内钛精矿市场报价弱盘整，实际成交议价偏低。本周市场主流现货资源供应维持稳定，但终端需求传递信号仍显不佳，攀西46%钛精矿报价1920-1950元/吨，持货商多表示，常规标准矿成交需求不足，国产配矿低价略有成交。进口钛精矿目前仍以主流莫桑比克长协供应为主体，市场散货成交均表不足，刚需采购为主。目前莫桑比克46%2400-2450元/吨，尼日利亚50%2450-2550元/吨。</p> <p>国内钛白粉市场表现平淡。钛企及贸易商多以在手订单发货为主，新单成交多根据订单单议为主。需求表现平淡，在下游工厂采购相对谨慎的情况下，整体成交并不积极，市场观望情绪较浓。目前钛白粉主流出厂价格，金红石型13800-14700元/吨，锐钛型12500-13100元/吨，氯化法16000-17500元/吨，实际成交单议为主。</p> <p>【铌】</p> <p>五氧化二铌：近期氧化铌价格持续坚挺运行，市场实际成交较少，整体处于供需僵持态势，普通级氧化铌报价380-390元/公斤。近期原料铌精矿价格受供应偏紧影响持续上涨，氧化铌厂家认为目前下游需求端疲软，实际需求支撑较少，预计原料涨势不会持续太久，市场采购情绪较谨慎，主要以观望为主，氧化铌厂家生产持续受成本支撑，利润空间进一步缩窄，均出现减产情况，氧化铌市场或将出现供应偏紧的情况。</p> <p>国产铌铁：近期国产铌铁价格高位运行，下游市场持续疲软，目前60A铌铁报价30-35万元/吨。生产成本压力较大叠加下游需求持续弱势，铌铁厂家目前对于后市较为悲观，市场观望情绪较重，下游少部分刚需采购为主，且压价情绪较重，市场供需博弈态势加剧。</p> <p>【钼】</p> <p>今日钼市持稳运行。原料方面，今日内蒙古某矿山销售45%-50%品位钼精矿成交价格3610元/吨度，散货市场持货商出货意愿增强，本周散货成交量有所增长，散货市场40%-45%品位在3570-3580元/吨度有成交达成；钼铁方面，主流铁厂报价坚挺，钼铁现货现金报价在23-23.4万元/吨（现款），本周多家代表性钢厂陆续进场采购，今日宝钢宝山再次进场，但生产企业原料成本较高，铁厂仍处于倒挂行情之中，故钢厂端整体低价议价较为困难，当前钢厂对于钼铁高价接受程度有限，本周开标仍在22.85-23万元/吨（现款-承兑）；综合来看，当前钼市僵持在23万元/吨一线，产业链上下游仍处于博弈中。</p> <p><img src="https://img04.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2024/12/20/0853312.jpg" alt="" width="600" height="337.5" /></p> <p> </p>  <br /> </div> </div> </article> <article class="content-block m-copyRight"> 资讯编辑：吴庆麟 021-66896715 </br> 资讯监督：查佐栋 021-26093218 </br> 资讯投诉：陈跃进 021-26093100 </br> </article> <article class="content-block m-copyRight h-statement"> <p class="h-statement-text">免责声明：Mysteel发布的原创及转载内容，仅供客户参考，不作为决策建议。原创内容版权归Mysteel所有，转载需取得Mysteel书面授权，且Mysteel保留对任何侵权行为和有悖原创内容原意的引用行为进行追究的权利。转载内容来源于网络，目的在于传递更多信息，方便学习与交流，并不代表Mysteel赞同其观点及对其真实性、完整性负责。申请授权及投诉，请联系Mysteel（021-26093397）处理。</p> <span class='h-statement-show'>展开</span> </article> <div class="content-block-title 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