TIME for Kids | Forecasting with AI

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class="article-show__wrapper"> <div class="article-show__conatiner"> <div class="article-show__header"> <ul class="article-show__content-sections"> <li> <a href="https://www.timeforkids.com/g56/sections/technology/">Technology</a> </li> <li> <a href="https://www.timeforkids.com/g56/topics/weather/">Weather</a> </li> </ul> <h1 class="article-show__content-title">Forecasting with AI</h1> <div class="article-show__content-meta"> <h3 class="article-show__content-date">October 22, 2024</h3> <h4 class="article-show__content-author"> <a href="https://www.timeforkids.com/g56/authors/andrew-r-chow/">Andrew R. Chow</a> <span class="article-show__content-date"> for TIME, adapted by TFK editors </span> </h4> </div> </div> <div class="article-show__availabilities dont-print"> <ul class="availabilities"> <li class="article-show__availabilities-emag-audio emag-audio dont-print"> <div id="audio-read-aloud"></div> </li> <li class="article-show__availabilities-language-es dont-print"> <a class="language" href="https://www.timeforkids.com/g56/forecasting-with-ai-g5/?lang=es">En Espanol</a> </li> <li class="article-show__availabilities-print dont-print"> <button>Print</button> </li> </ul> </div> <div class="article-show__content"> <div class="article-show__body"> <figure class="header_img"> <div class="header_img-wrapper"> <img src="https://www.timeforkids.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/G3G5_241101_new_tools.jpg?w=1024" alt="" height="683" width="1024"/> <figcaption> <span class="caption">NEW TOOLS An AI weather model is displayed at an AI conference in 2023. AI weather models are changing how meteorologists work.</span> <span class="credit">WANG ZHAO—AFP/GETTY IMAGES</span> </figcaption> </div> </figure> <div class="article-show__content-article"> <p>On October 9, Hurricane Milton became the fifth hurricane in 2024 to make landfall in the mainland United States. Storms like this grow more frequent and more intense. So meteorologists are hard at work forecasting and tracking them (see “Safety First”). Artificial intelligence is playing an important role in that process.</p> <div class="image"><img src="https://www.timeforkids.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/G3G5_241101_seeking_safety.jpg?w=1024" width="1024" height="683" alt=""/></div><p class="caption">SEEKING SAFETY Thousands of people were ordered to evacuate Florida’s west coast before Hurricane Milton hit.</p><cite>JOE RAEDLE—GETTY IMAGES</cite> <h2>AI Advantages</h2> <p>For years, meteorologists have built digital models of storms. They use data gathered by planes, satellites, and buoys. These models can take hours to produce updated forecasts.</p> <div class="image"><img src="https://www.timeforkids.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/G3G5_241101_swirling_clouds.jpg?w=1024" width="1024" height="683" alt=""/></div><p class="caption">SWIRLING CLOUDS Hurricanes are large enough to be seen from space.</p><cite>NASA/GETTY IMAGES</cite> <p> </p> <p>But AI models use vast amounts of data from previous storms to recognize patterns. They find trends that most humans can’t. And they do so very quickly. This year, AI models made accurate storm-related predictions within seconds, and days in advance.</p> <div class="image"><img src="https://www.timeforkids.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/G3G5_241101_be_prepared.jpg?w=1024" width="1024" height="683" alt=""/></div><p class="caption">BE PREPARED A Tampa, Florida, resident helps set up a flood barrier in advance of Hurricane Milton.</p><cite>SPENCER PLATT—GETTY IMAGES</cite> <p> </p> <p>Matt Lanza is a meteorologist. He’s based in Houston, Texas. In the week before Hurricane Milton made landfall, Lanza says, older models accurately predicted where in Florida the storm would hit. But AI models “probably picked up on that <span class="powerword" tabindex="0">potential<span class="definition" aria-modal="true"> <span class="top"> <button class="close" title="close">×</button> </span> <span class="bottom"> <span class="title">potential</span> <span class="credit"></span> <span class="def"> possible <span class="speech">(adjective)</span> </span> <span class="usage"> </span> </span> </span></span> outcome a good 12 to 18 hours before,” he says. Those hours can make a big difference to people preparing for a storm’s impact.</p> <p> </p> <p>The AI program GraphCast predicted that Hurricane Beryl would hit Texas on July 8. A traditional model predicted it would hit Mexico. GraphCast was right. The team behind it won an engineering prize. One of the judges called GraphCast “a <span class="powerword" tabindex="0">revolutionary<span class="definition" aria-modal="true"> <span class="top"> <button class="close" title="close">×</button> </span> <span class="bottom"> <span class="title">revolutionary</span> <span class="credit"></span> <span class="def"> game-changing; groundbreaking <span class="speech">(adjective)</span> </span> <span class="usage"> </span> </span> </span></span> advance.”</p> <p> </p> <p>In September, the AI program AIFS predicted Hurricane Francine’s path as the storm hit Louisiana. Its accuracy gave Lanza the confidence to tell his viewers in Texas that the storm likely wouldn’t be an issue for them. “The consistency was incredible,” Lanza says. </p> <div class="image"><img src="https://www.timeforkids.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/G3G5_241101_weather_update.jpg?w=1024" width="1024" height="683" alt=""/></div><p class="caption">WEATHER UPDATE President Biden attends a White House briefing about Hurricane Milton on October 9.</p><cite>ANNA MONEYMAKER—GETTY IMAGES</cite> <h2>Room to Grow </h2> <p>The National Hurricane Center (NHC) uses AI in its forecasting. “The sophistication of AI has dramatically improved, and it continues to improve,” NHC deputy director Jamie Rhome told NBC Miami.</p> <p>Despite the technology’s success, there are still hiccups. Lanza says that AI models struggle to predict a storm’s intensity and how much precipitation will fall. That’s why it’s important for meteorologists to use AI along with other forecasting tools. “We’re not turning the reins over to these things and just saying, ‘Make me a forecast,’” he says.</p> <p> </p> <h2><em>Safety First</em></h2> <div class="image"><img src="https://www.timeforkids.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/K1_230929_meteorologist.jpg?w=1024" width="1024" height="683" alt=""/></div><cite>COURTESY ASHLEY RUIZ</cite> <p>Meteorologists are scientists who study the Earth’s atmosphere and weather patterns in order to make predictions. They can warn people about severe weather events. </p> <p>Ashley Ruiz (above) is a meteorologist. She works in Baton Rouge, Louisiana. In 2022, Ruiz told TFK Kid Reporter Cash Daniels that one of her favorite parts of the job is “getting out in the community. . . . Meeting the families who saw the forecast and were able to get to safety: It’s amazing, knowing I helped make that happen.”</p> <p></p> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div class="site-container"> <div> <div class="article-show__related-articles dont-print"> <h3 class="list-header">More from Technology</h3> <div class="articles g56"> <div class="c-article-preview " > <div class="c-article-preview__image"> <a href="https://www.timeforkids.com/g56/is-ai-good-for-society-g5/" tabindex="-1" > <div class="c-article-preview__image-container"> <img src="https://www.timeforkids.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/G3G5_241115_AI_debate.jpg?w=1024" alt=""/> </div> </a> </div> <div class="c-article-preview__wrapper"> <div class="c-article-preview__content"> <h3 class="c-article-preview__section"> <a href="https://www.timeforkids.com/g56/topics/debate/">Debate</a> </h3> <h2 class="c-article-preview__title"> <a href="https://www.timeforkids.com/g56/is-ai-good-for-society-g5/" >Is Artificial Intelligence Good for Society?</a> </h2> <div class="c-article-preview__date"> November 7, 2024 </div> <p class="c-article-preview__text"> <a href="https://www.timeforkids.com/g56/is-ai-good-for-society-g5/" tabindex="-1" >Many people are embracing artificial intelligence, or AI. 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The CEO of OpenAI was fired over disagreements about how to safely build artificial intelligence. OpenAI is the company that created the chatbot ChatGPT. Sam Altman ran the company. But on November 17,…</a> </p> <div class="c-article-preview__availability"> <div class="c-article-preview__icon c-article-preview--audio"> <div class="c-article-preview__icon-image"></div> <div class="c-article-preview__icon-text">Audio</div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div>  <div class="share-container"> <div class="share-container__wrapper"> <div class="share-container__content"> <div class="share-container__col"> <div class="share-container__col-image share-container__col-image-link share_link" id="copy-link"></div> <h2>Share a Link</h2> <ol> <li>Click the icon above to copy the url link to your clipboard.</li> <li>Paste the link into the location in which you share assignments with students. Examples might include, but are not limited to Canvas, Schoology and Edmodo. <br/> <br/> <div class="lms_row"> <div class="lms_col"><img src="https://www.timeforkids.com/wp-content/themes/tfk/src/assets/images/lms_logos/canvas-logo.png" alt="Canvas" height="70px" width="70px"></div> <div class="lms_col"><img src="https://www.timeforkids.com/wp-content/themes/tfk/src/assets/images/lms_logos/schoology-logo.png" alt="Canvas" height="70px" width="70px"></div> <div class="lms_col"><img src="https://www.timeforkids.com/wp-content/themes/tfk/src/assets/images/lms_logos/edmodo-logo.png" alt="Canvas" height="70px" width="70px"></div> </div> </li> </ol> </div> <div class="share-container__col"> <div class="share-container__col-image share-container__col-image-classroom share_link" id="gc-copy-link"> </div> <h2>Google Classroom</h2> <ol> <li>Click on the icon above to share the article with a class in your Google Classroom.</li> <li>Choose an action. 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