Company in focus: As oil sinks, rig builder Keppel finds ways to stay afloat- Nikkei Asian Review

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href="https://web.archive.org/web/20160505083153/mailto:/?subject=Company%20in%20focus%3A%20As%20oil%20sinks%2C%20rig%20builder%20Keppel%20finds%20ways%20to%20stay%20afloat&body=Here%20is%20something%20from%20Nikkei%20Asian%20Review%20that%20might%20interest%20you%3A%0D%0ACompany%20in%20focus%3A%20As%20oil%20sinks%2C%20rig%20builder%20Keppel%20finds%20ways%20to%20stay%20afloat%0D%0Ahttp://s.nikkei.com/1Tnv5ti">Mail</a></li> </ul> </div> <div class="article-box"> <div class="detail"> <div class="feature-article"> <div class="date-area">February 13, 2016 11:30 pm JST</div> <div class="sub-title">Company in focus</div> <h1 class="title">As oil sinks, rig builder Keppel finds ways to stay afloat</h1> <p>MAYUKO TANI, Nikkei staff writer</p> </div> <img src="/web/20160505083153im_/http://asia.nikkei.com/var/site_cache/storage/images/node_43/node_51/2016/201602/20160208/20160208_keppel/4023166-1-eng-GB/20160208_keppel_article_main_image.jpg" width="580" alt=""/> <p class="img-caption"> This floating production, storage and offloading vessel was modified and upgraded by Keppel Shipyard in Singapore. <span class="img-credit"> © Reuters </span> </p> </div> </div> <div class="article-box detail"> <div class="wysiwyg_area"> <div class="articleBodyText"> <p>SINGAPORE -- Buffeted by the global oversupply of oil, Singapore's <a href="/web/20160505083153/http://asia.nikkei.com/Company/05HWVR-E" target="_self" alt="05HWVR-E" class="mwMoTrg">Keppel Corp.</a> is grappling with another headache half a world away. Yet, although the market is rife with speculation over a possible restructuring of the rig builder and a broader industry shake-up, the company's diverse business portfolio is keeping it afloat. </p><p>     CEO Loh Chin Hua on Jan. 21 announced that Keppel has set aside a 230 million Singapore dollar ($163 million) provision for ailing Brazilian projects ordered by Sete Brasil, a leasing company that supplies rigs to state-owned Petrobras.</p><div class="page_limit free"></div><div class="page_limit"></div><p>     Since 2014, Petrobras has been mired in a massive corruption scandal. And because Sete Brasil depends on the Brazilian oil major as its sole customer, a shortage of funds has become a pressing issue. None of the six rigs that Sete ordered from Keppel has been completed. With Sete Brasil on the verge of bankruptcy, Keppel is coming to grips with the possibility that the orders will be canceled.</p><div class="object-right"> <div class="object-right fb"> <div class="object-right"> <div class="js_enlarge"> <a href="javascript:%20void(0);" class="mwTrg" alt="zoom_102417"> <div class="image-side"> <img src="https://web.archive.org/web/20160505083153im_/http://asia.nikkei.com/var/site_cache/storage/images/node_43/node_51/2016/201602/20160205/20160205keppel/4015463-3-eng-GB/20160205Keppel_middle_320.png" alt="" class=""><p class="date-area img-caption"></p> </div> </a> </div> <div class="modal-zoom" id="zoom_102417"> <a href="javascript:%20void(0);" class="js_close fb">Close</a> <img src="https://web.archive.org/web/20160505083153im_/http://asia.nikkei.com/var/site_cache/storage/images/node_43/node_51/2016/201602/20160205/20160205keppel/4015463-3-eng-GB/20160205Keppel_article_main_image.png" alt="" class=""></div> </div> </div> </div><p>     Keppel's net profit for fiscal 2015 fell 19.1% to S$1.52 billion, Loh announced the same day. It was the company's worst result since 2011. Revenue for the year declined by 22.5% to S$10.29 billion.</p><p>     Despite the downtrend -- and the accounting charge, which underscores the serious challenges Keppel is facing -- the company's share price on Jan. 22 jumped by 4.58% to S$5.02. The market, it turned out, was pleasantly surprised; it had been bracing for even uglier numbers, analysts said.</p><p>     Moreover, the results fueled the buzz about potential mergers among Singapore's rig builders. Media reports on Jan. 19 suggested that Temasek, Singapore's sovereign wealth fund, is weighing options for supporting two conglomerates -- Keppel and <a href="/web/20160505083153/http://asia.nikkei.com/Company/003J9N-E" target="_self" alt="003J9N-E" class="mwMoTrg">Sembcorp Industries</a>, in which it owns 21% and 49.5% stakes, respectively. Keppel and Sembcorp Marine, a unit of Sembcorp Industries, are global leaders in the rig-building game.</p><p>     Keppel's rig business is showing no signs of recovering in the near term, contributing to expectations of industry consolidation. Its core offshore and marine unit has suffered from a dearth of new orders and deferments of existing projects. New orders declined from the peak of S$9.9 billion in 2012 to S$1.8 billion in 2015.</p><p class=" text-left">     Even though Keppel's share price rebounded on the latest earnings report, it is still less than half the level in September 2014, when it was around S$11. "We have to plan for a long winter," Loh told reporters on Jan. 21.</p><p>     An industry source lamented the serious headwinds. "It is not only Singapore [construction] yards. Korean competitors are suffering, and many Chinese yards have closed."</p><p>     But Keppel has already started a "rightsizing" effort. It reduced its global workforce in the offshore and marine sector by 6,000, or 17%, last year. Another 7,900 subcontracting jobs, 24% of the total, were cut.</p><div class="page_break auto free"></div><div class="page_break auto"></div><p>     Keppel is reportedly mulling divestment of noncore assets and share sales. Observers speculate that one possibility would be to sell M1, a telecom company.</p><div class="object-left"> <div class="object-left fb"> <div class="object-left"> <div class="js_enlarge"> <a href="javascript:%20void(0);" class="mwTrg" alt="zoom_102700"> <div class="image-side"> <img src="https://web.archive.org/web/20160505083153im_/http://asia.nikkei.com/var/site_cache/storage/images/node_43/node_51/2016/201602/20160208/20160211keppel2/4024999-2-eng-GB/20160211Keppel2_middle_320.png" alt="" class=""><p class="date-area img-caption"></p> </div> </a> </div> <div class="modal-zoom" id="zoom_102700"> <a href="javascript:%20void(0);" class="js_close fb">Close</a> <img src="https://web.archive.org/web/20160505083153im_/http://asia.nikkei.com/var/site_cache/storage/images/node_43/node_51/2016/201602/20160208/20160211keppel2/4024999-2-eng-GB/20160211Keppel2_article_main_image.png" alt="" class=""></div> </div> </div> </div><p>     "The businesses we are in have some cycles, but as a group, we have demonstrated a track record," Loh stressed. He said Keppel's "multibusiness strategy" is working to offset the impact of the oil price collapse, with the property and infrastructure segments compensating for the lackluster offshore operations.</p><p><b>Surprise move</b></p><p>Loh made a big step in January 2015, a year after he took the helm of the company, by announcing a buyout of real estate subsidiary Keppel Land. The acquisition, which surprised investors because property markets in Singapore and China were already slowing, turned out to be a good move. The segment earned S$701 million in net profit in 2015, up 46%, surpassing offshore and marine's S$481 million contribution.</p><p>     Keppel's share price is susceptible to the so-called conglomerate discount and is undervalued by around 10%, according to DBS Group Holdings analyst Ho Pei Hwa. However, it is also true that being a diversified conglomerate helps Keppel get through difficult times. For now, the company is able to rely on businesses besides the offshore segment.  </p><p>     "It shows management's foresight heading into this downturn" in the oil rig business, UOB KayHian analyst Nancy Wei said in a report. "The [property] unit is expected to continue seeing strong growth from its key markets China and Vietnam going into 2016-2018," as the housing market sentiment improves, she said.</p><p>     Yet some investors are not convinced. Because management did not share its plans for a worst-case scenario, "key investor concerns will not be alleviated," Yeak Chee Keong, an analyst at Maybank Kim Eng, said in a report.</p><p>     The Sete Brasil woes, meanwhile, have drawn renewed attention to the notion of having a single national rig builder in Singapore.</p><p>     A merger could solve a lot of problems -- not least of which is the awkwardness of separate but similar rig builders competing with each other under the same stakeholder. Analysts are now mulling how a deal might work. A merger of Keppel and Sembcorp Marine would create a global rig-building colossus, leaving Chinese rivals behind. Keppel won 60 new rig orders from 2009 to 2014 out of a total 198 orders made globally during the period, representing a 30% share of the market. Sembcorp Marine won 28 orders, or 14%, based on numbers compiled by JPMorgan analyst Ajay Mirchandani.</p><p>     A Keppel-Sembcorp Marine integration would lead to cost savings and put the new entity in a stronger leadership position, Ho from DBS said.</p><p>     The two conglomerates under Temasek have explored a merger of their offshore business units several times, most recently in 2001. Price was the main sticking point. Their<b> </b>different corporate cultures also got in the way.</p><p>     Keppel was established in 1968 as Keppel Shipyard, deriving its name from British ship Captain Henry Keppel, who arrived in Singapore in 1848 to discover a natural, deepwater harbour at Tanjong Pagar, now Singapore Harbour. Sembcorp Marine was born out of Jurong Shipyard, a joint venture between the Economic Development Board of Singapore and Ishikawajima-Harima Heavy Industries of Japan (<a href="/web/20160505083153/http://asia.nikkei.com/Company/05HWN4-E" target="_self" alt="05HWN4-E" class="mwMoTrg">IHI</a>).</p><div class="object-right"> <div class="object-right fb"> <div class="object-right"> <div class="js_enlarge"> <a href="javascript:%20void(0);" class="mwTrg" alt="zoom_102698"> <div class="image-side"> <img src="https://web.archive.org/web/20160505083153im_/http://asia.nikkei.com/var/site_cache/storage/images/node_43/node_51/2016/201602/20160208/20160211keppel3/4024977-1-eng-GB/20160211Keppel3_middle_320.png" alt="" class=""><p class="date-area img-caption"></p> </div> </a> </div> <div class="modal-zoom" id="zoom_102698"> <a href="javascript:%20void(0);" class="js_close fb">Close</a> <img src="https://web.archive.org/web/20160505083153im_/http://asia.nikkei.com/var/site_cache/storage/images/node_43/node_51/2016/201602/20160208/20160211keppel3/4024977-1-eng-GB/20160211Keppel3_article_main_image.png" alt="" class=""></div> </div> </div> </div><p>    Going forward, merger talk between the offshore engineering businesses of China International Marine Containers and China Merchants Heavy Industry "could provide additional impetus" for bringing the Singaporean rig builders together, Ho said.</p><p>     Any Keppel-Sembcorp Marine merger could take time to complete. If one is to take place, it is widely believed Temasek would have to drive the parties together<b><b>. </b></b>Temasek's intentions are hard to gauge: A spokesman declined to comment on the possibility. But because the portfolio value has apparently been damaged by the two groups' exposure to the battered offshore market, it is easy to imagine that the sovereign wealth fund is seriously evaluating all its options.</p><p><b>Iran and beyond</b></p><p>While waiting for the market to recover, Keppel is trying to build up its relatively new liquefied natural gas business and is exploring new markets, including Iran.</p><p>     "It is an interesting market for us," Chow Yew Yuen, CEO of the offshore and marine unit, said of Iran.</p><p>     Loh noted that "because of the sanctions, many [Iranian] rigs are quite old. There is clearly a need for replacements." He added that Keppel is ready to provide the whole value chain, including efficient and productive rigs as well as support and maintenance services, to the oil-producing country.</p><p>     But even successfully entering the Iranian market would be no guarantee that Keppel could weather the global storm being kicked up by low oil prices. Keppel, Sembcorp and Temasek might be better served by taking proactive steps to deal with today's oil glut and the uncertainty about how long the market will remain oversupplied.</p> </div> </div> <div id="modal-screen_zoom"></div> </div> <div id="05HWVR-E" class="cmp-smy-balloon"> <div class="cmp-smy-balloon-inr"> <span class="sub-title-a300">Asia300</span> <h3 class="mwmo-title"><a href="/web/20160505083153/http://asia.nikkei.com/Company/05HWVR-E">Keppel Corp. Ltd.</a></h3> <p class="a300ctry">Singapore</p> <table> <tr> <th>Market(Ticker):</th> <td>SES(BN4)</td> </tr> <tr> <th>Sector:<br>Industry:</th> <td>Producer Manufacturing<br>Industrial Conglomerates</td> </tr> <tr> <th>Market cap(USD):</th> <td>7,025.67M</td> </tr> <tr> <th>Shares:</th> <td>1,817.91M</td> </tr> </table> <div class="more"> <a href="/web/20160505083153/http://asia.nikkei.com/Company/05HWVR-E">about Keppel Corp. Ltd.</a> </div> </div> </div> <div id="003J9N-E" class="cmp-smy-balloon"> <div class="cmp-smy-balloon-inr"> <span class="sub-title-a300">Asia300</span> <h3 class="mwmo-title"><a href="/web/20160505083153/http://asia.nikkei.com/Company/003J9N-E">Sembcorp Industries Ltd.</a></h3> <p class="a300ctry">Singapore</p> <table> <tr> <th>Market(Ticker):</th> <td>SES(U96)</td> </tr> <tr> <th>Sector:<br>Industry:</th> <td>Utilities<br>Electric Utilities</td> </tr> <tr> <th>Market cap(USD):</th> <td>3,618.65M</td> </tr> <tr> <th>Shares:</th> <td>1,787.54M</td> </tr> </table> <div class="more"> <a href="/web/20160505083153/http://asia.nikkei.com/Company/003J9N-E">about Sembcorp Industries Ltd.</a> </div> </div> </div> <div id="05HWN4-E" class="cmp-smy-balloon"> <div class="cmp-smy-balloon-inr"> <h3 class="mwmo-title"><a href="/web/20160505083153/http://asia.nikkei.com/Company/05HWN4-E">IHI Corp.</a></h3> <p class="a300ctry">Japan</p> <table> <tr> <th>Market(Ticker):</th> <td>TKS(7013)</td> </tr> <tr> <th>Sector:<br>Industry:</th> <td>Producer Manufacturing<br>Industrial Machinery</td> </tr> <tr> <th>Market cap(USD):</th> <td>3,484.43M</td> </tr> <tr> <th>Shares:</th> <td>1,546.79M</td> </tr> </table> <div class="more"> <a href="/web/20160505083153/http://asia.nikkei.com/Company/05HWN4-E">about IHI Corp.</a> </div> </div> </div>  <div class="pagination no-border"></div> <div class="related-company"> <h2 class="related-header">Related companies</h2> <p class="company-list"> <a href="/web/20160505083153/http://asia.nikkei.com/Company/05HWVR-E">Keppel Corp. 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Company in focus: As oil sinks, rig builder Keppel finds ways to stay afloat- Nikkei Asian Review