Document Zbl 1471.92340

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Biosci. Eng.</a> <a href="/?q=in%3A468693" title="Articles in this Issue">18, No. 1, 950-967 (2021)</a>. </div> <div class="abstract">This paper develops deterministic and stochastic models to investigate the evolution of the COVID-19 in short term and in long term. The paper relies on SEIR model and performs analyses on the local and global dynamics of the ordinary differential equation with constant parameters. The stochastic model is also formulated with a theoretical estimate of the probability of disease extinction. Parameter estimation is conducted to fit the publicly reported data and numerical simulations of deterministic and stochastic models is done. In particular, it is shown that the basic reproduction number $R_0$ is a sharp disease threshold, where the disease dies out if $R_0\le1$ and persists if $R_0>1$. It is revealed that if the non-pharmaceutical interventions were not implemented properly, the second wave is likely to happen at that time.<div class="reviewer"> Reviewer: <a href="/authors/?q=rv%3A13832">Yilun Shang (Newcastle)</a></div> <div class="clearfix"></div></div> <div class="clear"></div> <br> <div class="citations"><div class="clear"><a href="/?q=rf%3A7390926">Cited in <strong>4</strong> Documents</a></div></div> <div class="classification"> <h3>MSC:</h3> <table><tr> <td> <a class="mono" href="/classification/?q=cc%3A92D30" title="MSC2020">92D30</a> </td> <td class="space"> Epidemiology </td> </tr></table> </div><div class="keywords"> <h3>Keywords:</h3><a href="/?q=ut%3ACOVID-19">COVID-19</a>; <a href="/?q=ut%3ASEIR+model">SEIR model</a>; <a href="/?q=ut%3AODE+model">ODE model</a>; <a href="/?q=ut%3ACTMC+model">CTMC model</a>; <a href="/?q=ut%3Adisease+extinction">disease extinction</a>; <a href="/?q=ut%3Adisease+outbreak">disease outbreak</a>; <a href="/?q=ut%3Asecond+wave">second wave</a></div> <div class="software"> <h3>Software:</h3><a href="/software/23170">GitHub</a></div>  <div class="modal fade" id="metadataModal" tabindex="-1" role="dialog" aria-labelledby="myModalLabel"> <div class="modal-dialog" role="document"> <div class="modal-content"> <div class="modal-header"> <button type="button" class="close" data-dismiss="modal" aria-label="Close"><span aria-hidden="true">×</span></button> <h4 class="modal-title" id="myModalLabel">Cite</h4> </div> <div class="modal-body"> <div class="form-group"> <label for="select-output" class="control-label">Format</label> <select id="select-output" class="form-control" aria-label="Select Metadata format"></select> </div> <div class="form-group"> <label for="metadataText" class="control-label">Result</label> <textarea class="form-control" id="metadataText" rows="10" style="min-width: 100%;max-width: 100%"></textarea> </div> <div id="metadata-alert" class="alert alert-danger" role="alert" style="display: none;">  </div> </div> <div class="modal-footer"> <button type="button" class="btn btn-primary" onclick="copyMetadata()">Copy to clipboard</button> <button type="button" class="btn btn-default" data-dismiss="modal">Close</button> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div class="functions clearfix"> <div class="function">  <a type="button" class="btn btn-default btn-xs pdf" data-toggle="modal" data-target="#metadataModal" data-itemtype="Zbl" data-itemname="Zbl 1471.92340" data-ciurl="/ci/07390926" data-biburl="/bibtex/07390926.bib" data-amsurl="/amsrefs/07390926.bib" data-xmlurl="/xml/07390926.xml" > Cite </a> <a class="btn btn-default btn-xs pdf" data-container="body" type="button" href="/pdf/07390926.pdf" title="Zbl 1471.92340 as PDF">Review PDF</a> </div> <div class="fulltexts"> <span class="fulltext">Full Text:</span> <a class="btn btn-default btn-xs" type="button" href="https://doi.org/10.3934/mbe.2021050" aria-label="DOI for “Deterministic and stochastic models for the epidemic dynamics of COVID-19 in Wuhan, China”" title="10.3934/mbe.2021050">DOI</a> </div> <div class="sfx" style="float: right;"> <a href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" target="_blank" title="Open Access License" class="cc-license-link no-new-tab-icon"> <img src="https://static.zbmath.org/contrib/img/cc/svg/icons/cc.svg" alt="Creative Commons CC license icon" class="cc-license-icon"> <img src="https://static.zbmath.org/contrib/img/cc/svg/icons/by.svg" alt="Creative Commons BY license icon" class="cc-license-icon"> </a> </div> </div> <div class="references"> <h3>References:</h3> <table><tr> <td>[1]</td> <td class="space">M, Mathematical modelling on phase based transmissibility of corona virus, Infect. 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