[隆众聚焦]：原料助力PVC底部支撑，“破六”呼声减弱-我的钢铁网

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style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; text-align: right;"><strong style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; text-align: center;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); letter-spacing: 1px; background: white;"><strong style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; text-align: right;"><strong style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;"></strong></strong></span></strong></strong></span></p><p><strong>导语:近期PVC弱势下跌，国内需求提升有限，叠加外盘价格的走弱，PVC供需格局不佳。近期对从<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-967-----0502-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>煤炭</a>端的成本下移抱有较大期望，但随着<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-968-----050103-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>兰炭</a>行业出现挺价—3月23日<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-968-----050103-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>神木兰炭</a>协会提议限产保价，此消息带动了市场氛围好转，对市场“<strong style="white-space: normal;">破六</strong>”呼声有所减弱</strong><strong>。</strong><br/></p><p><strong><a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-968-----050103-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>兰炭价格</a>下行明显，协会提议保价</strong></p><p style="white-space: normal; text-align: center;"><strong><span style="font-family: 宋体, SimSun">图一：2022-2023年国内兰炭价格走势图</span></strong><br/></p><p style="white-space: normal; text-align: center;"><strong><span style="font-family: 宋体, SimSun"><img src="https://mfs.oilchem.net/group1/M00/1D/BE/rBKW3mQavZmAYvZ2AABdFbRU5RE018.png"/></span></strong></p><p style="white-space: normal; text-align: right;"><span style="font-family: 宋体, SimSun; text-align: justify; text-indent: 28px;"><strong style="text-align: right; white-space: normal;"><strong style="text-align: center;"><span style="color: rgb(34, 34, 34); letter-spacing: 1px; background: white;"><strong style="text-align: right;"><strong>来源：隆众资讯</strong></strong></span></strong></strong></span><br/></p><p><span style="font-size: 16px"></span><span style="font-family: 宋体, SimSun; text-indent: 32px;">近期国内兰炭部分企业开工负荷偏低运行，以销定产状态凸显。<span style="font-family: 宋体, SimSun; text-indent: 32px;">兰炭下游产品价格持续下滑，市场需求面表现疲软，</span>另外焦油价格偏低对企业利润贡献有限的背景下，兰炭价格又难言乐观，整体企业呈现亏损情况。面对当前困局，神木兰炭协会提议限产保价，要求各企业立即限产，减产至35%以下，兰炭最低指导价格：中料1350元/吨，小料1300元/吨，焦面1000元/吨。但当前面临的是兰炭企业仍然有一定的出货积极性，因此落实情况有待观察，是否能止跌反弹。</span></p><p><strong style="white-space: normal;">电石亏损明显，减产提上议程<strong style="white-space: normal;"></strong></strong></p><p style="text-align: center;"><strong style="white-space: normal;"><strong style="white-space: normal;"><strong style="text-align: center; white-space: normal; font-family: 宋体, SimSun;">图二：<strong style="text-align: center; white-space: normal;"><span style="font-family: 宋体, SimSun;">2022-2023年乌海地区电石成本利润走势图</span></strong></strong></strong></strong></p><p style="margin-top:5px;margin-right:0;margin-bottom:5px;margin-left:0;text-align:center"><img src="https://mfs.oilchem.net/group1/M00/1D/D2/rBKW3mQdU6aAHGo4AACZkIuRkWU595.png" title="image.png" alt="image.png" width="495" height="292"/></p><p style="margin: 5px 0px;"><strong><span style="font-family: 宋体, SimSun"></span></strong></p><p style="text-align: right;"><strong style="text-align: right; white-space: normal;"><strong style="text-align: center;"><span style="color: rgb(34, 34, 34); letter-spacing: 1px; background: white;"><strong style="text-align: right;">来源：隆众资讯</strong></span></strong></strong></p><p><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; font-family: 宋体, SimSun; text-indent: 28px;"></span></p><p><span style=";font-family: 宋体, SimSun"></span></p><p><span style="font-family: 宋体, SimSun; text-indent: 32px;">截止3月23日乌海地区主流贸易价格在3000元/吨，较上周跌9.09%。主因电石<span style="font-family: 宋体, SimSun; text-indent: 32px;">需求端持续低迷，主力下游PVC开工低位，次下游品种BDO的检修仍未结束。而配套PVA的企业降负荷后加大了市场商品电石外销量。</span>生产企业<span style="font-family: 宋体, SimSun; text-indent: 32px;">库存高位下</span>出货积极，整体成交灵活出现降价。<span style="font-family: 宋体, SimSun; text-indent: 32px;">在需求持续低迷的情况下，<span style="font-family: 宋体, SimSun; text-indent: 32px;">又因目前企业亏损严重加之兰炭的保价行为，</span>电石生产企业的减产行为势在必行</span></span>。</p><p style="margin-bottom:8px;text-align:left;text-indent: 0"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;font-family: 宋体, SimSun">PVC边际长期亏损，氯碱一体难以支撑</span></strong></p><p style="margin-bottom: 8px; text-align: center; text-indent: 0px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;font-family: 宋体, SimSun"><strong style="text-align: center; white-space: normal;"><strong><strong style="font-family: 宋体, SimSun;">图三：<strong>2021-2023年国内氯碱与PVC毛利对比图</strong></strong></strong></strong></span></strong></p><p style="text-align:center"><img src="https://mfs.oilchem.net/group1/M00/1D/D6/rBKW3mQdcrCAel8SAADd1QwiSw0098.png" title="image.png" alt="image.png"/></p><p style="margin-bottom: 8px; text-align: right; text-indent: 0px;"><span style="text-align: left;"><strong style="text-align: right; white-space: normal;"><strong style="text-align: center;"><span style="color: rgb(34, 34, 34); letter-spacing: 1px; background: white;"><strong style="text-align: right;">来源：隆众资讯</strong></span></strong></strong></span></p><p>如上图所示，国内PVC边际企业自2022年7月份起就处于亏损状态，且一直持续到当前未改。而氯碱双吨毛利也呈现利润下滑趋势，当前氯碱产业已不能覆盖PVC的亏损，导致边际企业在春检尚未到来之前已考虑降负。在本周华北、山东地区均有企业存在小幅减产。</p><p>综上，按照当前兰炭-电石-PVC的成本来看，PVC全产业处于边际亏损现状，而近期宏观层面持续偏弱的背景下，市场对经济下行压力以及基于对兰炭等的下行趋势看淡PVC也无可厚非。然兰炭的挺价叠加文华指数再次下跌到了相对低点181附近后存在技术调整需要，因此在PVC的成本支撑到了阶段低点后，周五出现日内阶段性期现小反弹。</p>  <br /> </div> </div> </article> <article class="content-block m-copyRight"> 资讯编辑：李燕 0533-7026560 </br> 资讯监督：石磊 0533-7026528 </br> 资讯投诉：李倩 0533-7026993 </br> </article> <article class="content-block m-copyRight h-statement"> <p class="h-statement-text">免责声明：Mysteel发布的原创及转载内容，仅供客户参考，不作为决策建议。原创内容版权归Mysteel所有，转载需取得Mysteel书面授权，且Mysteel保留对任何侵权行为和有悖原创内容原意的引用行为进行追究的权利。转载内容来源于网络，目的在于传递更多信息，方便学习与交流，并不代表Mysteel赞同其观点及对其真实性、完整性负责。申请授权及投诉，请联系Mysteel（021-26093397）处理。</p> <span class='h-statement-show'>展开</span> </article> <div class="content-block-title s-title"> <h2 style="display: inline-block;"> <a 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