{"title":"Using Data Mining Methodology to Build the Predictive Model of Gold Passbook Price","authors":"Chien-Hui Yang, Che-Yang Lin, Ya-Chen Hsu","volume":50,"journal":"International Journal of Economics and Management Engineering","pagesStart":146,"pagesEnd":149,"ISSN":"1307-6892","URL":"https:\/\/publications.waset.org\/pdf\/467","abstract":"Gold passbook is an investing tool that is especially\r\nsuitable for investors to do small investment in the solid gold. The gold\r\npassbook has the lower risk than other ways investing in gold, but its\r\nprice is still affected by gold price. However, there are many factors\r\ncan cause influences on gold price. Therefore, building a model to\r\npredict the price of gold passbook can both reduce the risk of\r\ninvestment and increase the benefits. This study investigates the\r\nimportant factors that influence the gold passbook price, and utilize\r\nthe Group Method of Data Handling (GMDH) to build the predictive\r\nmodel. This method can not only obtain the significant variables but\r\nalso perform well in prediction. Finally, the significant variables of\r\ngold passbook price, which can be predicted by GMDH, are US dollar\r\nexchange rate, international petroleum price, unemployment rate,\r\nwhole sale price index, rediscount rate, foreign exchange reserves,\r\nmisery index, prosperity coincident index and industrial index.","references":"[1] Blose, L. E. and Shieh, J. C. P. \"The impact of gold price on the value of\r\ngold mining stock,\" Review of Financial Economics, 1995, 4, 2, 125 -\r\n139.\r\n[2] Capie, F. Mills, T. C., and Wood, G. \"Gold as a hedge against the dollar.\r\nJournal of International Financial Markets,\" Institutions and Money, 2005,\r\n15, 4, 343-352.\r\n[3] Clinch, G., Whittred, G. and Wood, J. \"The impact of Labor-s gold tax on\r\nthe stock market,\" Accounting Research Journal, 1995, 8, 5-14.\r\n[4] Faff, R. and Chan, H. \"A multifactor model of gold industry stock\r\nreturns: evidence from the Australian equity market,\" Applied Financial\r\nEconomics, 1998, 8, 1, 21-28.\r\n[5] Lawrence, C. \"Why is gold different from other assets? An empirical\r\ninvestigation,\" The World Gold Council, 2003.\r\n[6] Levin, E. J. and Wright, R. E. \"Short-run and long-run determinants of the\r\nprice of gold,\" The World Gold Council, 2006.\r\n[7] McDonald, J. G. and Solnick, B. H. \"Valuation and strategy for gold\r\nstocks,\" The Journal of Portfolio Management, 1977, 3, 3, 2 9-33.\r\n[8] Narayan, P. K., Narayan, S., and Zheng, X.-W. \"Gold and oil futures\r\nmarkets: Are markets efficient?\" Applied Energy, 2010, 87, 10,\r\n3299-3303.\r\n[9] Sim, A. B. and Jeffrey, A. \"An examination of the pricing of Australian\r\nmining stocks,\" University of New South Wales, Working Paper, 1991.\r\n[10] Smith, G. \"The price of gold and stock price indices for the United\r\nStates,\" The World Gold Council, 2001.","publisher":"World Academy of Science, Engineering and Technology","index":"Open Science Index 50, 2011"}