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The attackers had rocket propelled grenades and left three vehicles burning. It is not clear if the attackers were Syrian rebels in hot pursuit across the border or if local Sunni Iraqi clans, who are related to the largely Sunni insurgents in Syria, struck for themselves. </p> <p>Alarabiya was reporting Tuesday morning Iraqi time that Iraqi tanks had advanced on the Free Syrian Army checkpoint at al-Ya`rabiya, presumably seeking revenge for the ambush. That isn’t a good sign, to have an Iraqi-Syrian border clash.</p> <p>The steps being taken by the US, as explained on Monday by <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20130306034317/http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/syria/9907566/John-Kerry-US-will-empower-Syria-opposition.html "> Secretary of State John Kerry in Riyadh</a>, to strengthen the Syrian opposition (by which he meant the moderates, not the Jabha) increasingly look too little, too late. Asthe Syrian rebellion grinds on, the most radical factions are coming to the fore in very worrying ways. It is not clear that Washington has the slightest idea what to do about this, though a new plan to arm moderates via Jordan in Syria’s southern district of Deraa may, behind the scenes, have American backing or at least the US isn’t vetoing it. (The Saudis are said to be buying the weapons and cooperating with Jordan in this effort because they are afraid of Jabhat al-Nusra and angry at Qatar winking at its growing prominence in the ranks of the northern rebels).</p> <p>Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki had <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20130306034317/http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/ap-interview-iraq-premier-syria-war-spread-18606218 "> warned just last week in an AP interview</a> that if radical Sunnis come out on top in the Syrian civil war, they would be a source of profound instability in the Middle East and that Jordan and other neighbors could be dismembered.</p> <p>Shiite-ruled Iraq faces an on-going guerrilla war from radical Sunnis, some of them apparently now fighting in Jabhat al-Nusra in Syria. In addition, the Sunni Arab population of the west and the north of the country, about a fifth of the population, has been demonstrating peacefully against the al-Maliki government, with large rallies, for several months. Al-Maliki is afraid that if the Sunni radicals win Damascus, there will be severe effects on Mosul and Ramadi. Indeed, those effects may already have begun.</p> <p>To be fair to Iraq’s Sunnis, most of them voted for a secular party in the 2010 parliamentary elections, and many joined the ‘Awakening Councils’ movement against ‘al-Qaeda in Mesopotamia.’ And virtually no one thinks al-Maliki, a fundamentalist Shiite, has been good about reaching out to the Iraqi Sunnis or seeking national reconciliation.</p> <p>Then al-Qaeda <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20130306034317/http://www.annahar.com/article/18157-%D9%85%D8%B9%D8%A7%D8%B1%D8%B6%D8%A9-%D8%B3%D9%88%D8%B1%D9%8A%D8%A9-%D8%AA%D8%B3%D9%8A%D8%B7%D8%B1-%D8%B9%D9%84%D9%8A-%D8%B1%D9%82%D8%A9 "> affiliate Jabhat al-Nusra took the provincial Syrian capital of Raqqah on Monday. Raqqah was a place to which large numbers of refugees had fled, and </a><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20130306034317/http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/syria/9908558/Syrian-civil-war-spills-into-Iraq-as-42-Assad-troops-killed-in-ambush.html "> most of the Free Syrian Army had considered it off-limits as a result.</a> The Jabhat al-Nusra fighters still faced pockets of resistance around the Baath Party HQ. The opposition controls much of the countryside in Raqqah province, and had only lacked the provincial capital. The city is the first provincial capital to fall largely into rebel hands. Syria has fourteen provinces, so the opposition has 13 to go (though to be fair, Syria is still 50% rural and the rebels control much of the countryside in the north).</p> <p><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20130306034317/http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_OtLpRYbgUw ">Video circulated on the internet of rebels pulling down a statue of Hafez al-Assad</a> (r. 1970-2000), the father of current dictator Bashar al-Assad, who ruled Syria with an iron hand for thirty years.</p> <p><iframe width="420" height="315" src="https://web.archive.org/web/20130306034317if_/http://www.youtube.com/embed/_OtLpRYbgUw" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe></p> <p>One fears that some of the excitement in the video is that of radical Sunnis happy to destroy a monument to a Shi’ite, Alawi secularist.</p> <p>So, I think you can largely color in Raqqah in the below map black (the radical fundamentalists like black flags).</p> <p><img src="https://web.archive.org/web/20130306034317im_/http://yallasouriya.files.wordpress.com/2012/10/syria-map-provinces2.jpg" width="570" height="300"/> </p> <p>In the central depot town of Homs, the Syrian government on Monday waged a fierce battle to take back some districts lost to the rebels. Homs is key to the ability of Damascus to import supplies, ammunition and new weaponry from the port of Latakia and from the Russian naval base at Tartous. If the rebels ever take Homs, they’d be in a much better position to besieged, cut off, and take Damascus.</p> <p>Ironically, al-Qaeda in Mesopotamia wanted to take over a whole Iraqi province (it especially wanted al-Anbar, where it launched thousands of attacks in 2006-2007) but never was able to, in part because Sunni Iraqis turned on it when it killed their own sons for ‘collaborating’ with al-Maliki. But now Jabhat al-Nusra, with some of the same fighters in its ranks, has taken the Syrian province of Raqqah. And the Syrian brand of radical Sunnism is somehow implicated in a major attack on Iraqi soil.</p> <p>I think that al-Maliki is right, and that King Abdullah II of Jordan may not sleep very well tonight. Many Jordanian Salafis are said to be fighting in Syria, and no one knows what will happen when they come home. But with 6 dead Iraqi soldiers on his hands, it is al-Maliki who is most alarmed of all.</p> <span class="fv_sharing"> <span class="fvreddit"><a class="reddit" target="_blank" onclick="fvreddit_local(31530);" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20130306034317/http://www.reddit.com/submit?url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.juancole.com%2F2013%2F03%2Fofficially-spills-killed.html" title="Reddit The Syrian Civil War comes to Iraq, as 8 Iraqi and 48 Syrian Troops are Killed on Iraqi Soil"></a> <span class="rdnumber">0</span></span> <span class="fvretweet"><a class="image" target="_blank" onclick="fvretweet_local(31530);" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20130306034317/http://twitter.com/share?url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.juancole.com%2F2013%2F03%2Fofficially-spills-killed.html&text=The+Syrian+Civil+War+comes+to+Iraq%2C+as+8+Iraqi+and+48+Syrian+Troops+are+Killed+on+Iraqi+Soil" title="Retweet The Syrian Civil War comes to Iraq, as 8 Iraqi and 48 Syrian Troops are Killed on Iraqi Soil on Twitter"><span>Retweet</span></a> <span class="twnumber">5</span></span>  <span class="fvfacebook_share"><a onclick="fvfacebook_share_local(31530,'http%3A%2F%2Fwww.juancole.com%2F2013%2F03%2Fofficially-spills-killed.html'); return false" href="#" title="Share 'The Syrian Civil War comes to Iraq, as 8 Iraqi and 48 Syrian Troops are Killed on Iraqi Soil' on Facebook"><span>Share</span></a> <span class="fvshnm">10</span></span> <span class="fvgoogleplusone"><a class="image" onclick="fvfb_google(31530); return false" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20130306034317/http://www.juancole.com/2013/03/officially-spills-killed.html" title="Click here to publicly +1 'The Syrian Civil War comes to Iraq, as 8 Iraqi and 48 Syrian Troops are Killed on Iraqi Soil'"><span>Google +1</span></a> <span class="fvgoogleplusone-number">0</span></span> <span class="fvstumbleuppon"><a class="image" onclick="fvstumbleupon_local(31530,'http%3A%2F%2Fwww.juancole.com%2F2013%2F03%2Fofficially-spills-killed.html'); return false" href="#" title="Submit The Syrian Civil War comes to Iraq, as 8 Iraqi and 48 Syrian Troops are Killed on Iraqi Soil to StumbleUpon"><span>StumbleUpon</span></a> <span class="sunumber">0</span></span> <span class="fvfb_print"><a class="image" onclick="fvfb_print(31530); return false" href="#" title="Print a printer friendly version of The Syrian Civil War comes to Iraq, as 8 Iraqi and 48 Syrian Troops are Killed on Iraqi Soil"><span>Printer Friendly</span></a></span> <span class="fvemail"><a class="image" target="_blank" onclick="fvfb_email(31530);" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20130306034317/mailto:/?subject=%22The Syrian Civil War comes to Iraq, as 8 Iraqi and 48 Syrian Troops are Killed on Iraqi Soil%22 on Informed Comment&body=Link: http%3A%2F%2Fwww.juancole.com%2F2013%2F03%2Fofficially-spills-killed.html %0D%0A%0D%0A----%0D%0A So on Saturday, Syrian rebels in the east of the country attacked another government checkpoint along the Iraqi border, al-Ya`rabiya, and took it. Some of the besieged Syrian troops, many wounded, escaped to the Iraqi side and were being escorted by Iraqi troops south when they were ambushed early on Tuesday and 48 were killed, [...]" title="Send The Syrian Civil War comes to Iraq, as 8 Iraqi and 48 Syrian Troops are Killed on Iraqi Soil with an email"><span>Send via email</span></a></span> </span> <p class="categories">Posted in <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20130306034317/http://www.juancole.com/syria" title="View all posts in Syria" rel="category tag">Syria</a>, <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20130306034317/http://www.juancole.com/uncategorized" title="View all posts in Uncategorized" rel="category tag">Uncategorized</a> | <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20130306034317/http://www.juancole.com/2013/03/officially-spills-killed.html#comments" title="Comment on The Syrian Civil War comes to Iraq, as 8 Iraqi and 48 Syrian Troops are Killed on Iraqi Soil"><span class="commentcount">10</span> Comments</a> </p> </div> </div> <div class="post-31504 post type-post status-publish format-standard hentry category-iran category-israel"> <h2><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20130306034317/http://www.juancole.com/2013/03/congress-approve-sequester.html" rel="bookmark" title="Permanent Link to Israel Lobby asks Congress to Approve Attack on Iran & to Exempt Israel from Sequester">Israel Lobby asks Congress to Approve Attack on Iran & to Exempt Israel from Sequester</a></h2> <p class="date">Posted on 03/04/2013 by Juan</p> <div class="entry"> <p>News from what Ross Perot used to call the guys in sharkskin suits and alligator shoes– the lobbyists who routinely outvote you and me on Capitol Hill:</p> <p>The American Israel Public Affairs Committee, which ought to be a registered foreign agent, opens its annual conference in Washington today. Its three big goals right now are to make sure US government aid to Israel is exempted from the across the board budget cuts of the sequester; to make sure Israel can with impunity go on stealing Palestinian land in the West Bank; and to get permission from Congress for the Israeli Air Force to bomb Iran’s civilian nuclear enrichment facilities.</p> <p>Since Israel is a middle-income country with a nominal per capita income higher than Spain or South Korea, it is mysterious why the US taxpayer should outright give it so much money every year– more especially since the Israelis are breaking international law with their aggressive colonization of the West Bank, which causes no end of trouble for the United States in the Muslim World. Why it should be <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20130306034317/http://rt.com/op-edge/aipac-israel-aid-us-761/ "> exempted from the effects of the sequester, when ordinary Americans will not</a>, is further mysterious.</p> <p>But the maneuvering around the sequester and aid is a minor issue compared to <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20130306034317/http://www.justforeignpolicy.org/sites/default/files/AIPAC_Back_Door_To_War.pdf "> the attempt to do an end run around President Obama and Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel by getting senators to sign a permission slip for Israel</a> to attack Iran, saying that the senate:</p> <blockquote><p> “urges that, if the Government of Israel is 3 compelled to take military action in self-defense, the 4 United States Government should stand with Israel 5 and provide diplomatic, military, and economic support to the Government of Israel in its defense of its territory, people, and existence.” </p></blockquote> <p>Although the resolution denies being an authorization for war, that is clearly what it is. It was introduced by Lindsey Graham (of course) and Robert Menendez.</p> <p><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20130306034317/http://www.niacouncil.org/site/News2?page=NewsArticle&id=9029&security=1&news_iv_ctrl=-1 "> The resolution also seeks to expand America’s unilateral war on the Iranian economy</a>, which is arguably illegal in international law, by trying to punish European companies, including pharmaceuticals, that sell to Iran. The US financial blockade is already making some medicines hard to come by for strapped Iranian families with ill children.</p> <p>An Israeli attack on Iran would certainly draw in the United States. Thousands of US personnel in Baghdad, Qatar and Bahrain would be vulnerable to covert, proxy attacks in response. The Pentagon has repeatedly warned the Israelis about doing anything that might force the US into hostilities, and the brass won’t be happy about this irresponsible resolution.</p> <p>Former National Security Council staffer and Columbia professor of Political Science <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20130306034317/http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2013/02/28/senators-press-to-green-light-israeli-attack-on-iran.html "> Gary Sick notes</a>, “Initiating a war is the gravest step any nation can take. This legislation would effectively entrust that decision to a regional state. Such a decision is an American sovereign responsibility. It cannot be outsourced.”</p> <p><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20130306034317/http://salsa.democracyinaction.org/o/1439/p/dia/action/public/?action_KEY=12660 "> Just Foreign Policy</a> has suggestions for how you can protest this irresponsible resolution to your elected representatives.</p> <span class="fv_sharing"> <span class="fvreddit"><a class="reddit" target="_blank" onclick="fvreddit_local(31504);" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20130306034317/http://www.reddit.com/submit?url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.juancole.com%2F2013%2F03%2Fcongress-approve-sequester.html" title="Reddit Israel Lobby asks Congress to Approve Attack on Iran & to Exempt Israel from Sequester"></a> <span class="rdnumber">3</span></span> <span class="fvretweet"><a class="image" target="_blank" onclick="fvretweet_local(31504);" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20130306034317/http://twitter.com/share?url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.juancole.com%2F2013%2F03%2Fcongress-approve-sequester.html&text=Israel+Lobby+asks+Congress+to+Approve+Attack+on+Iran+%26+to+Exempt+Israel+from+Sequester" title="Retweet Israel Lobby asks Congress to Approve Attack on Iran & to Exempt Israel from Sequester on Twitter"><span>Retweet</span></a> <span class="twnumber">14</span></span>  <span class="fvfacebook_share"><a onclick="fvfacebook_share_local(31504,'http%3A%2F%2Fwww.juancole.com%2F2013%2F03%2Fcongress-approve-sequester.html'); return false" href="#" title="Share 'Israel Lobby asks Congress to Approve Attack on Iran & to Exempt Israel from Sequester' on Facebook"><span>Share</span></a> <span class="fvshnm">121</span></span> <span class="fvgoogleplusone"><a class="image" onclick="fvfb_google(31504); return false" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20130306034317/http://www.juancole.com/2013/03/congress-approve-sequester.html" title="Click here to publicly +1 'Israel Lobby asks Congress to Approve Attack on Iran & to Exempt Israel from Sequester'"><span>Google +1</span></a> <span class="fvgoogleplusone-number">3</span></span> <span class="fvstumbleuppon"><a class="image" onclick="fvstumbleupon_local(31504,'http%3A%2F%2Fwww.juancole.com%2F2013%2F03%2Fcongress-approve-sequester.html'); return false" href="#" title="Submit Israel Lobby asks Congress to Approve Attack on Iran & to Exempt Israel from Sequester to StumbleUpon"><span>StumbleUpon</span></a> <span class="sunumber">0</span></span> <span class="fvfb_print"><a class="image" onclick="fvfb_print(31504); return false" href="#" title="Print a printer friendly version of Israel Lobby asks Congress to Approve Attack on Iran & to Exempt Israel from Sequester"><span>Printer Friendly</span></a></span> <span class="fvemail"><a class="image" target="_blank" onclick="fvfb_email(31504);" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20130306034317/mailto:/?subject=%22Israel Lobby asks Congress to Approve Attack on Iran & to Exempt Israel from Sequester%22 on Informed Comment&body=Link: http%3A%2F%2Fwww.juancole.com%2F2013%2F03%2Fcongress-approve-sequester.html %0D%0A%0D%0A----%0D%0A News from what Ross Perot used to call the guys in sharkskin suits and alligator shoes– the lobbyists who routinely outvote you and me on Capitol Hill: The American Israel Public Affairs Committee, which ought to be a registered foreign agent, opens its annual conference in Washington today. Its three big goals right now are [...]" title="Send Israel Lobby asks Congress to Approve Attack on Iran & to Exempt Israel from Sequester with an email"><span>Send via email</span></a></span> </span> <p class="categories">Posted in <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20130306034317/http://www.juancole.com/iran" title="View all posts in Iran" rel="category tag">Iran</a>, <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20130306034317/http://www.juancole.com/israel" title="View all posts in Israel" rel="category tag">Israel</a> | <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20130306034317/http://www.juancole.com/2013/03/congress-approve-sequester.html#comments" title="Comment on Israel Lobby asks Congress to Approve Attack on Iran & to Exempt Israel from Sequester"><span class="commentcount">27</span> Comments</a> </p> </div> </div> <div class="post-31500 post type-post status-publish format-standard hentry category-egypt category-uncategorized"> <h2><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20130306034317/http://www.juancole.com/2013/03/liberal-boycott-elections.html" rel="bookmark" title="Permanent Link to Egypt on the Brink: The Danger of a Left-Liberal Boycott of Elections">Egypt on the Brink: The Danger of a Left-Liberal Boycott of Elections</a></h2> <p class="date">Posted on 03/04/2013 by Juan</p> <div class="entry"> <p>My column is out at Truthdig, entitled <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20130306034317/http://www.truthdig.com/report/item/egypt_on_the_brink_20130303/">“Egypt on the Brink”</a>.</p> <p>Excerpt:</p> <blockquote><p> “the opposition says it is withdrawing from parliamentary elections scheduled for April…</p> <p>The Brotherhood government under Morsi has not placated Egypt’s powerful working class, which has seen its wages decline. The demonstrations that have roiled Port Said, a Suez Canal city of 600,000, for the past month are rooted in part in discontent among longshoremen and other workers. These disgruntled laborers are organized, agitated and disillusioned with the Brotherhood, which tends to favor private business. The workers are therefore a voting constituency in search of a party. If the labor-left politicians stay home, so will the workers, and the Brotherhood will win. The same can be said for other vital constituencies, including students and youth, women and the Coptic Christians (the latter are some 10 percent of the population).</p> <p>The opposition has shown that it is very good, on occasion, at holding large rallies. The crowds have forced Morsi to back off some of his controversial decrees, but only some of them. Ultimately, demonstrating is not a policymaking tool, certainly not in an environment in which regular elections are being held. The same energy and skills necessary to mobilize people to camp out in tents in city squares must now be turned to getting out the vote for parties and candidates that will take the side of the people, of students, workers, women, minorities and liberal Muslims, in the country’s evolving politics. Throwing in the towel now will simply hand Egypt to the Brotherhood and the Salafis, guaranteeing a continued turn to the right in legislation and ongoing political polarization and instability.” </p></blockquote> <p>Read <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20130306034317/http://www.truthdig.com/report/item/egypt_on_the_brink_20130303/ "> the whole thing</a>.</p> <span class="fv_sharing"> <span class="fvreddit"><a class="reddit" target="_blank" onclick="fvreddit_local(31500);" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20130306034317/http://www.reddit.com/submit?url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.juancole.com%2F2013%2F03%2Fliberal-boycott-elections.html" title="Reddit Egypt on the Brink: The Danger of a Left-Liberal Boycott of Elections"></a> <span class="rdnumber">0</span></span> <span class="fvretweet"><a class="image" target="_blank" onclick="fvretweet_local(31500);" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20130306034317/http://twitter.com/share?url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.juancole.com%2F2013%2F03%2Fliberal-boycott-elections.html&text=Egypt+on+the+Brink%3A+The+Danger+of+a+Left-Liberal+Boycott+of+Elections" title="Retweet Egypt on the Brink: The Danger of a Left-Liberal Boycott of Elections on Twitter"><span>Retweet</span></a> <span class="twnumber">0</span></span>  <span class="fvfacebook_share"><a onclick="fvfacebook_share_local(31500,'http%3A%2F%2Fwww.juancole.com%2F2013%2F03%2Fliberal-boycott-elections.html'); return false" href="#" title="Share 'Egypt on the Brink: The Danger of a Left-Liberal Boycott of Elections' on Facebook"><span>Share</span></a> <span class="fvshnm">2</span></span> <span class="fvgoogleplusone"><a class="image" onclick="fvfb_google(31500); return false" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20130306034317/http://www.juancole.com/2013/03/liberal-boycott-elections.html" title="Click here to publicly +1 'Egypt on the Brink: The Danger of a Left-Liberal Boycott of Elections'"><span>Google +1</span></a> <span class="fvgoogleplusone-number">0</span></span> <span class="fvstumbleuppon"><a class="image" onclick="fvstumbleupon_local(31500,'http%3A%2F%2Fwww.juancole.com%2F2013%2F03%2Fliberal-boycott-elections.html'); return false" href="#" title="Submit Egypt on the Brink: The Danger of a Left-Liberal Boycott of Elections to StumbleUpon"><span>StumbleUpon</span></a> <span class="sunumber">0</span></span> <span class="fvfb_print"><a class="image" onclick="fvfb_print(31500); return false" href="#" title="Print a printer friendly version of Egypt on the Brink: The Danger of a Left-Liberal Boycott of Elections"><span>Printer Friendly</span></a></span> <span class="fvemail"><a class="image" target="_blank" onclick="fvfb_email(31500);" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20130306034317/mailto:/?subject=%22Egypt on the Brink: The Danger of a Left-Liberal Boycott of Elections%22 on Informed Comment&body=Link: http%3A%2F%2Fwww.juancole.com%2F2013%2F03%2Fliberal-boycott-elections.html %0D%0A%0D%0A----%0D%0A My column is out at Truthdig, entitled “Egypt on the Brink”. Excerpt: “the opposition says it is withdrawing from parliamentary elections scheduled for April… The Brotherhood government under Morsi has not placated Egypt’s powerful working class, which has seen its wages decline. The demonstrations that have roiled Port Said, a Suez Canal city of 600,000, [...]" title="Send Egypt on the Brink: The Danger of a Left-Liberal Boycott of Elections with an email"><span>Send via email</span></a></span> </span> <p class="categories">Posted in <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20130306034317/http://www.juancole.com/egypt" title="View all posts in Egypt" rel="category tag">Egypt</a>, <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20130306034317/http://www.juancole.com/uncategorized" title="View all posts in Uncategorized" rel="category tag">Uncategorized</a> | <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20130306034317/http://www.juancole.com/2013/03/liberal-boycott-elections.html#comments" title="Comment on Egypt on the Brink: The Danger of a Left-Liberal Boycott of Elections"><span class="commentcount">3</span> Comments</a> </p> </div> </div> <div class="post-31497 post type-post status-publish format-standard hentry category-environment"> <h2><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20130306034317/http://www.juancole.com/2013/03/bothered-protest-engelhardt.html" rel="bookmark" title="Permanent Link to Why there will be Masses in the Streets Protesting Climate Change (Engelhardt)">Why there will be Masses in the Streets Protesting Climate Change (Engelhardt)</a></h2> <p class="date">Posted on 03/04/2013 by Juan</p> <div class="entry"> <p><i> Tom Engelhardt writes at Tomdispatch.com: </i></p> <p>Two Sundays ago, I traveled to the nation’s capital to attend what was <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20130306034317/http://act.350.org/signup/presidentsday">billed as</a> “the largest climate rally in history” and I haven’t been able to get the experience — or a question that haunted me — out of my mind.  Where was everybody?</p> <p>First, though, the obvious weather irony: climate change didn’t exactly come out in support of that rally. In the midst of the <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20130306034317/http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2013/jan/16/2012-10-warmest-years-on-record">warmest years</a> and some of the <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20130306034317/http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2012/03/10/441639/fourth-warmest-winter-on-record-for-the-us/">warmest winters</a> on record, the demonstration, which focused on stopping the Keystone XL Pipeline — it will <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20130306034317/http://www.tomdispatch.com/blog/175648/tomgram%3A_michael_klare%2C_will_the_keystone_xl_pipeline_go_down/">bring tar-sands oil</a>, some of the “dirtiest,” carbon-richest energy available from Alberta, Canada, to the U.S. Gulf Coast — was the coldest I’ve ever attended. I thought I’d lose a few fingers and toes while listening to the hour-plus of speakers, including <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20130306034317/http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-NMICnLur8Y">Senator Sheldon Whitehouse</a> from Rhode Island, who were theoretically warming the crowd up for its march around the (other) White House.</p> <p> And I also experienced a moment of deep disappointment. When I arrived early at the spot in front of the Washington Monument on the National Mall where we were to assemble, my heart sank.  It looked like only a few thousand protestors were gathering for what had been billed as a monster event.  I had taken it for granted that I would be adding one small, aging body (and voice) to a vast crowd at a propitious moment to pressure Barack Obama to become the climate-change president he hasn’t been.  After all, he has a decision to make that’s <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20130306034317/http://www.tomdispatch.com/blog/175648/tomgram%3A_michael_klare%2C_will_the_keystone_xl_pipeline_go_down/">his alone</a>: whether or not to allow that pipeline to be built.  Nixing it would help keep a potentially significant contributor to climate change, those Albertan tar sands, in the ground.  In other words, I hoped to play my tiny part in preserving a half-decent future for this planet, my children, and my new grandson.</p> <p><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20130306034317/http://www.nrdc.org/media/2013/130206a.asp">Sixty</a> environmental and other organizations were backing the demonstration, including the Sierra Club with its <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20130306034317/http://green.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/04/17/a-q-a-with-the-sierra-clubs-michael-brune/">hundreds of thousands</a> of members.  Given what was potentially at stake, it never crossed my mind that the turnout wouldn’t be substantial.  In fact, on that frigid day, lots of demonstrators did turn up.  Evidently, they knew the dirty little secret of such events: that much talk would precede a modest amount of walking and inventive slogan shouting.  So they arrived — poured in actually — late, and in real numbers.</p> <p>In the end, the organizers estimated attendance at somewhere in the <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20130306034317/http://thehill.com/blogs/e2-wire/e2-wire/283643-rally-of-35000-demands-obama-to-scrap-keystone-xl">35,000</a>-<a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20130306034317/http://action.sierraclub.org/site/PageServer?pagename=forwardonclimate">50,000</a> range.  Media reports varied between the usual <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20130306034317/http://rendezvous.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/02/18/holding-obamas-feet-to-the-climate-change-fire/">“thousands,”</a> generically used to describe (or, if you’re in a conspiratorial frame of mind, minimize) any demonstration, and <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20130306034317/http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2013/02/17/climate-change-rally-human-pipeline/1925719/">tens of thousands</a>.  I have no way of estimating myself, but certainly the crowd was, in the end, sizeable, as well as young, enthusiastic, and loud.  It made itself heard passing the White House. Not that President Obama was there to hear anything.  He was then on a golf course in the Florida warmth <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20130306034317/http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/02/20/obama-climate-protest_n_2719338.html">teeing up with</a> “a pair of Texans who are key oil, gas, and pipeline players.” That seemed to catch another kind of climate-change reality of our moment and strongly hinted at the strength of the forces any such movement is up against.  In the meantime, Keystone builder TransCanada was ominously completing the already green-lighted <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20130306034317/http://www.ktiv.com/story/21325702/2013/02/25/southern-keystone-xl-segment-crosses-halfway-mark-oil-pipeline-texas-oklahoma-nebraska-south-dakota-transcanada">first half</a> of the Texas-Oklahoma leg of its<strong> </strong>prospective future pipeline.</p> <p>In the end, I felt genuine satisfaction at having been there, but given what was at stake, given <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20130306034317/http://www.tomdispatch.com/blog/175613/tomgram%3A_rebecca_solnit,_the_name_of_the_hurricane_is_climate_change/">Frankenstorm Sandy</a>, the devastating <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20130306034317/http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/01/22/us-plains-drought_n_2525559.html">Midwestern drought</a> and <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20130306034317/http://www.tomdispatch.com/blog/175573/debuys_the_west_in_flames">record southwestern fires</a> of 2012, the Snowmageddon winter storm that had recently dropped <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20130306034317/http://www.ctpostchronicle.com/articles/2013/02/17/news/doc5117eaf348e35634515219.txt">40 inches</a> of the white stuff on Hamden, Connecticut, the blistering spring and summer of 2012, the <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20130306034317/http://www.nytimes.com/2012/09/20/science/earth/arctic-sea-ice-stops-melting-but-new-record-low-is-set.html">fast-melting</a> Arctic sea ice, and the fact that last year <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20130306034317/http://articles.washingtonpost.com/2013-01-08/national/36207396_1_noaa-analysis-climate-change-thomas-r-karl">broke</a> all heat records for the continental United States, given the build-up of <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20130306034317/http://www.usatoday.com/story/weather/2012/12/20/billion-dollar-weather-climate-disasters/1782099/">billion-dollar weather disasters</a> in recent years, and the growing emphasis on “extreme weather” events on the national TV news, shouldn’t hundreds of thousands have been there?  After all, I’ve been in <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20130306034317/http://www.tomdispatch.com/post/410/the_march_that_wasn_t_to_be">antiwar demonstrations</a> in which at least that many marched and in 1982, I found myself in my hometown in a crowd of <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20130306034317/http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anti-nuclear_protests#United_States">a million</a> demonstrating against the possibility of a world-ending nuclear war.  Is climate change a less important issue?</p> <p> <p class="more-link">Keep reading <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20130306034317/http://www.juancole.com/2013/03/bothered-protest-engelhardt.html#more-31497" class="more-link">Why there will be Masses in the Streets Protesting Climate Change (Engelhardt)</a></p></p> <span class="fv_sharing"> <span class="fvreddit"><a class="reddit" target="_blank" onclick="fvreddit_local(31497);" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20130306034317/http://www.reddit.com/submit?url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.juancole.com%2F2013%2F03%2Fbothered-protest-engelhardt.html" title="Reddit Why there will be Masses in the Streets Protesting Climate Change (Engelhardt)"></a> <span class="rdnumber">0</span></span> <span class="fvretweet"><a class="image" target="_blank" onclick="fvretweet_local(31497);" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20130306034317/http://twitter.com/share?url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.juancole.com%2F2013%2F03%2Fbothered-protest-engelhardt.html&text=Why+there+will+be+Masses+in+the+Streets+Protesting+Climate+Change++%28Engelhardt%29" title="Retweet Why there will be Masses in the Streets Protesting Climate Change (Engelhardt) on Twitter"><span>Retweet</span></a> <span class="twnumber">2</span></span>  <span class="fvfacebook_share"><a onclick="fvfacebook_share_local(31497,'http%3A%2F%2Fwww.juancole.com%2F2013%2F03%2Fbothered-protest-engelhardt.html'); 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return false" href="#" title="Print a printer friendly version of Why there will be Masses in the Streets Protesting Climate Change (Engelhardt)"><span>Printer Friendly</span></a></span> <span class="fvemail"><a class="image" target="_blank" onclick="fvfb_email(31497);" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20130306034317/mailto:/?subject=%22Why there will be Masses in the Streets Protesting Climate Change (Engelhardt)%22 on Informed Comment&body=Link: http%3A%2F%2Fwww.juancole.com%2F2013%2F03%2Fbothered-protest-engelhardt.html %0D%0A%0D%0A----%0D%0A Tom Engelhardt writes at Tomdispatch.com: Two Sundays ago, I traveled to the nation’s capital to attend what was billed as “the largest climate rally in history” and I haven’t been able to get the experience — or a question that haunted me — out of my mind. Where was everybody? First, though, the obvious weather [...]" title="Send Why there will be Masses in the Streets Protesting Climate Change (Engelhardt) with an email"><span>Send via email</span></a></span> </span> <p class="categories">Posted in <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20130306034317/http://www.juancole.com/environment" title="View all posts in Environment" rel="category tag">Environment</a> | <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20130306034317/http://www.juancole.com/2013/03/bothered-protest-engelhardt.html#comments" title="Comment on Why there will be Masses in the Streets Protesting Climate Change (Engelhardt)"><span class="commentcount">3</span> Comments</a> </p> </div> </div> <div class="post-31487 post type-post status-publish format-standard hentry category-egypt category-tunisia category-us-politics category-yemen"> <h2><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20130306034317/http://www.juancole.com/2013/03/austerity-democracy-europe.html" rel="bookmark" title="Permanent Link to Austerity and the threat to Democracy, in the US, Europe and the Middle East">Austerity and the threat to Democracy, in the US, Europe and the Middle East</a></h2> <p class="date">Posted on 03/03/2013 by Juan</p> <div class="entry"> <p>The “sequester” is actually, of course, the American form of austerity, or cut-backs in government spending during a recession. Austerity, or stingy government in Europe has <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20130306034317/http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/03/02/self-destructive-europe/ "> kept employment extremely depressed compared to what it would have been with government stimulus</a>, as Paul Krugman argues.</p> <p>Saturday, there were <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20130306034317/http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2013/03/02/thousands-march-portugal-protest/1958865/ "> massive protests throughout Portugal against Scrooge policies by the government</a>, which have so destroyed the country’s economy that <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20130306034317/http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-21206165 "> 2% of the population has fled abroad</a> for jobs in the past 2 years alone. On Friday, <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20130306034317/http://www.workers.org/2013/03/01/greek-general-strike-battles-austerity/ "> Greek workers staged a huge general strike</a>. In Italy, anti-austerity feeling made grumpy comedian <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20130306034317/http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/comment/jim-armitage-beppe--grillos-not-funny-and-hell-have-to-grow-up-now-hes-a-big-player-in-italy-after-election-8517598.html ">Beppe Grillo and his party</a> the swing vote in the new parliament. Grillo may single-handedly destroy the Euro zone. European newspapers rather amusingly demanded that Grillo now ‘take responsibility’ and ‘tell us what he wants.’ He is a contrarian comedian. It would be like having Robin Williams or Tracy Morgan as the swing vote in Congress, with the press hounding them for their agricultural policy and asking them about the dangers of deflation. But Grillo’s ascendancy, while less alarming than the resurgence of the Greek far Right, is a manifestation of the rejection by the Italian public of the long dreary road prescribed by the ‘troika,’ (The International Monetary Fund, the European Union, the Central Bank), of further government cut-backs, reductions in minimum wage, high unemployment, no hope.</p> <p>While for some odd reason the Middle East does not usually get analyzed with the same social science tools as Europe, the political crisis in Egypt is related to the Muslim Brotherhood government’s austerity program. The latter, as Samuel Knight argues, is being pursued under pressure from the International Monetary Fund. <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20130306034317/http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/political-animal-a/2013_03/kerry_takes_first_trip_abroad043304.php "> Secretary of State John Kerry is in Cairo, also urging acceptance of the austerity program. Austerity is estimated to have reduced Egyptians’ real income by 3 percent in January alone.</a> Tunisia is <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20130306034317/http://www.webmanagercenter.com/actualite/economie/2013/02/27/131684/tunisie-des-economistes-tunisiens-tirent-la-sonnette-d-alarme-sur-la-situation-economique-du-pays "> doing better than Egypt economically</a>, but the parliament, dominated by the religious Right, is also <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20130306034317/http://www.tunisia-live.net/2013/01/03/enactment-of-austerity-measures-by-constituent-assembly-draws-criticism/ "> tempted by austerity measures</a>, seeking to trim a point off the budget deficit this year while seeking 4.5% growth. While letting the value of the Tunisian dinar fall would hurt consumers with regard to imported goods, it would make Tunisian textiles and tourism more affordable for those abroad. Tunisia’s exports are hurt by European economic problems, and the country would do well to develop more Asian customers (Brazil has had success reorienting exports to the Pacific Rim). Likewise, although Yemen’s economy improved in 2012 after a 10 percent drop in the revolutionary year of 2011, <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20130306034317/http://english.alarabiya.net/articles/2013/02/14/266237.html "> if anything the government budget deficit of 5.5% is not big enough</a> to stimulate the economy properly.</p> <p>Reducing the state budget at a time of economic contraction is the opposite of what the great economist John Maynard Keynes prescribed. When the economy is in the doldrums, the businesses are skittish about investing their money, and so keep it in the bank. The only force, Keynes argued, that can and will risk putting a lot of money into the economy during a deep recession is the government. Of course, the government has less money at that point, too, since tax receipts are reduced. So it will simply have to spend money it doesn’t technically have, i.e. go into deficit and print extra paper money. The extra paper will, obviously, lose some of its value. But that loss can have benefits, too, since it will make the goods produced by the country less expensive abroad, and spur exports. </p> <p>This argument is straightforward for most countries, and it is mysterious why European and some Middle Eastern governments reject it. It is complicated in the US by the position of the dollar as a reserve currency and by the fall of manufacturing to only 20% of the US economy. The former means that large budget deficits don’t necessarily reduce the dollar’s value significantly, because the US only holds about a third of the world’s dollars and there is a lot of confidence in its value. The latter means that even when the dollar falls against the yen or euro, the jump in exports is limited to a fifth of the economy and domestic services don’t get much of a boost. But actually these peculiarities of the US economy are not arguments for austerity; on the contrary, the reserve dollar allows the US to do stimulus without as much pain as one would otherwise expect.</p> <p>Instead, the Tea Party has forced the US into an artificial crisis with the ‘sequester,’ taking $100 bn. a year out of the economy for the next ten years, which will cut half a point of economic growth and harm workers, keeping unemployment high– not to mention the harm it likely will do to medical research, higher education, etc. That this austerity is being pursued by the GOP in part in hopes of disillusioning voters with President Obama in his second term is fairly obvious, but it is also in order to protect the 2003 Bush tax cuts for the wealthy, 80% of which have been retained. Sequester, as usual with these things in the US, is actually a tax on the middle classes to benefit the wealthy, since it preserves undeserved tax cuts for the latter by reducing government services for the former.</p> <p>That austerity does not work economically should be clear. But that it creates populist discontents that are shaking southern Europe and could derail Middle East democratization is even more alarming. The world needs stimulus, not Scrooge government if it is to pull out of the crisis kicked off by corrupt bankers in 2008.</p> <span class="fv_sharing"> <span class="fvreddit"><a class="reddit" target="_blank" onclick="fvreddit_local(31487);" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20130306034317/http://www.reddit.com/submit?url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.juancole.com%2F2013%2F03%2Fausterity-democracy-europe.html" title="Reddit Austerity and the threat to Democracy, in the US, Europe and the Middle East"></a> <span class="rdnumber">1</span></span> <span class="fvretweet"><a class="image" target="_blank" onclick="fvretweet_local(31487);" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20130306034317/http://twitter.com/share?url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.juancole.com%2F2013%2F03%2Fausterity-democracy-europe.html&text=Austerity+and+the+threat+to+Democracy%2C+in+the+US%2C+Europe+and+the+Middle+East" title="Retweet Austerity and the threat to Democracy, in the US, Europe and the Middle East on Twitter"><span>Retweet</span></a> <span class="twnumber">18</span></span>  <span class="fvfacebook_share"><a onclick="fvfacebook_share_local(31487,'http%3A%2F%2Fwww.juancole.com%2F2013%2F03%2Fausterity-democracy-europe.html'); return false" href="#" title="Share 'Austerity and the threat to Democracy, in the US, Europe and the Middle East' on Facebook"><span>Share</span></a> <span class="fvshnm">85</span></span> <span class="fvgoogleplusone"><a class="image" onclick="fvfb_google(31487); return false" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20130306034317/http://www.juancole.com/2013/03/austerity-democracy-europe.html" title="Click here to publicly +1 'Austerity and the threat to Democracy, in the US, Europe and the Middle East'"><span>Google +1</span></a> <span class="fvgoogleplusone-number">2</span></span> <span class="fvstumbleuppon"><a class="image" onclick="fvstumbleupon_local(31487,'http%3A%2F%2Fwww.juancole.com%2F2013%2F03%2Fausterity-democracy-europe.html'); return false" href="#" title="Submit Austerity and the threat to Democracy, in the US, Europe and the Middle East to StumbleUpon"><span>StumbleUpon</span></a> <span class="sunumber">1</span></span> <span class="fvfb_print"><a class="image" onclick="fvfb_print(31487); return false" href="#" title="Print a printer friendly version of Austerity and the threat to Democracy, in the US, Europe and the Middle East"><span>Printer Friendly</span></a></span> <span class="fvemail"><a class="image" target="_blank" onclick="fvfb_email(31487);" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20130306034317/mailto:/?subject=%22Austerity and the threat to Democracy, in the US, Europe and the Middle East%22 on Informed Comment&body=Link: http%3A%2F%2Fwww.juancole.com%2F2013%2F03%2Fausterity-democracy-europe.html %0D%0A%0D%0A----%0D%0A The “sequester” is actually, of course, the American form of austerity, or cut-backs in government spending during a recession. Austerity, or stingy government in Europe has kept employment extremely depressed compared to what it would have been with government stimulus, as Paul Krugman argues. Saturday, there were massive protests throughout Portugal against Scrooge policies by [...]" title="Send Austerity and the threat to Democracy, in the US, Europe and the Middle East with an email"><span>Send via email</span></a></span> </span> <p class="categories">Posted in <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20130306034317/http://www.juancole.com/egypt" title="View all posts in Egypt" rel="category tag">Egypt</a>, <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20130306034317/http://www.juancole.com/tunisia" title="View all posts in Tunisia" rel="category tag">Tunisia</a>, <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20130306034317/http://www.juancole.com/us-politics" title="View all posts in US politics" rel="category tag">US politics</a>, <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20130306034317/http://www.juancole.com/yemen" title="View all posts in Yemen" rel="category tag">Yemen</a> | <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20130306034317/http://www.juancole.com/2013/03/austerity-democracy-europe.html#comments" title="Comment on Austerity and the threat to Democracy, in the US, Europe and the Middle East"><span class="commentcount">28</span> Comments</a> </p> </div> </div> <div class="post-31456 post type-post status-publish format-standard hentry category-egypt category-gulf category-pakistan category-pakistan-taliban category-taliban"> <h2><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20130306034317/http://www.juancole.com/2013/03/opposition-religious-bangladesh.html" rel="bookmark" title="Permanent Link to Muslim Opposition to the Muslim Religious Right Grows, from Egypt to Bangladesh">Muslim Opposition to the Muslim Religious Right Grows, from Egypt to Bangladesh</a></h2> <p class="date">Posted on 03/02/2013 by Juan</p> <div class="entry"> <p>The headlines this week were full of stories from the Muslim world about Muslims attacking the Muslim religious Right, whether the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt or the Jama’at-i Islami in Bangladesh. The rise of the religious Right in politics is producing a backlash throughout the region. Part of the backlash comes from secularists of Muslim heritage. But a significant part of it comes from believing Muslims, who oppose the sectarian and authoritarian approach of the religious Right parties, or who are uncomfortable with some of their stances toward longstanding Muslim religious practices, such as spiritual visits to the shrines of Muslim saints (a practice condemned by Wahhabism, Salafism, Talibanism, and other religious-right currents).</p> <p>Nationalism plays a role in Muslim “anti-Islamism,” since many on the religious Right in the Muslim world have pan-Muslim concerns. </p> <p>Thus, the Jama’at-i Islami in Bangladesh opposed the 1971 secession of that country from Pakistan. In that bloody struggle, Pakistani troops committed atrocities and some Jama’at leaders were accused of aiding them. A vital youth movement of critics of the Jama’at has been demonstrating for months demanding trials for those accused. The sentencing this week of leading Jama’at figure Delwar Hossein Seyedee for his role in 1971 atrocities satisfied the critics of the Muslim religious Right in that country, but <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20130306034317/http://edition.cnn.com/2013/03/01/world/asia/bangladesh-riots/ "> provoked Jama’at riots that left dozens dead.</a></p> <p>In the United Arab Emirates, supporters of the reigning emirs <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20130306034317/http://gulfnews.com/news/gulf/uae/crime/brotherhood-linked-group-in-uae-to-be-tried-this-week-1.1141044 ">have attacked the Muslim Brotherhood in that country as fifth columnists and a revolutionary threat to the prevailing order, and dozens of members are on trial for sedition</a>. The Brotherhood in the UAE is opposed both by tribal traditionalists loyal to ruling families such as the Nahayans and the Maktoums, and by the remnants of the Arab left (Nasserists, socialists) among intellectuals. There is also a growing unease about the Muslim Brotherhood in Saudi Arabia, given that it is now associated with the Egyptian Revolution and there are fears that it has secretive cells plotting revolution elsewhere.</p> <p>In Egypt in the past few months we have seen Muslim crowds attack and sometimes burn provincial headquarters of the Muslim Brotherhood. It is not clear who exactly is behind these acts, but that they are of Muslim heritage is certain.</p> <p>The Jama’at-i Islami in Pakistan still suffers reputationally for having allied with coup-maker Gen. Zia ul-Haq in the 1970s and 1980s, and Tahir al-Qadri’s Sufi-based Mizan ul-Qur’an is attempting to supplant it. (He has reinvented himself as a relative liberal, condemning violence and terrorism of the al-Qaeda/ Taliban sort, while the Jama’at, though not itself for the most part violent, has been reluctant forthrightly to condemn these tendencies). Many Pakistanis vote for parties opposed to the religious Right. The Urdu-speakers of Karachi support the Muttahida Qaumi Movement, which is secular-minded. Most Pakistani Pushtuns voted for the National Awami Party, a party of Pushtun sub-nationalism that opposes the Taliban and the religious Right.</p> <p>I don’t like the term “Islamism,” which was promoted by French scholars in preference to the American “Muslim fundamentalism,” since they thought the latter too Protestant in inspiration (it has no exact counterpart in French, where “integrisme” is sometimes used by analogy from ultramontane, hard line Catholicism). I think “Muslim fundamentalism” is better because, as the Chicago University project on fundamentalisms showed, it allows us to see the phenomenon in the context of similar movements in other religions. Moreover, I think the term is confusing because it is too close to “Islam” per se, and I don’t agree with figures such as Gilles Keppel who see the “Islamists” as unusually “pious,” implying that they are the real Muslims. Secular-minded Muslims who are nevertheless believers, and Sufi mystics, are also “pious,” and I don’t think social scientists should be deciding who is a better Muslim.</p> <p>“Political Islam” has been proposed as an alternative, but if it implies the fundamentalist groups, it is also inadequate. In Egypt the Wasat [Center] Party and now Abdel Moneim Abou’l-Fotouh’s Strong Egypt are a form of relatively liberal political Islam to the left of Muhammad Morsi’s Muslim Brotherhood. Sufis are entering politics (many in Egypt supported Wasat). </p> <p>That is why I suggest the usage, “Muslim religious Right” for righting, fundamentalist religion in politics. It seems to me to fit the major such movements, such as the Jama’at-i Islami and the Muslim Brotherhood, and it allows us to put religious politics in the Muslim world on a spectrum– from secular, to religious but liberal or progressive, to traditionalist (Sufis), to, well, the religious Right. We see the same spectrum in the US, with secular (many Unitarians), religious but liberal (the National Council of Churches), traditionalist (many Catholics, Lutherans) to the religious Right (2/3s of evangelicals, many Pentecostalists, etc.). In the US, the groups on the left of the spectrum vote for the Democratic Party on the whole, whereas those on the right tend to vote for the Republican Party. In Egypt, the groups on the left support the National Salvation Front coalition, whereas those on the right support the Freedom and Justice Party (Muslim Brotherhood) or Nur (Salafi).</p> <p>Secularism, forms of ethnic nationalism, tribalism, and the religious Left and Center all serve as countervailing forces to the religious Right parties in the Muslim world, the politics of which is becoming more polarized along these lines. But the resulting struggles look familiar if compared to those in the most religious of the industrialized democracies, the United States.</p> <span class="fv_sharing"> <span class="fvreddit"><a class="reddit" target="_blank" onclick="fvreddit_local(31456);" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20130306034317/http://www.reddit.com/submit?url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.juancole.com%2F2013%2F03%2Fopposition-religious-bangladesh.html" title="Reddit Muslim Opposition to the Muslim Religious Right Grows, from Egypt to Bangladesh"></a> <span class="rdnumber">0</span></span> <span class="fvretweet"><a class="image" target="_blank" onclick="fvretweet_local(31456);" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20130306034317/http://twitter.com/share?url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.juancole.com%2F2013%2F03%2Fopposition-religious-bangladesh.html&text=Muslim+Opposition+to+the+Muslim+Religious+Right+Grows%2C+from+Egypt+to+Bangladesh" title="Retweet Muslim Opposition to the Muslim Religious Right Grows, from Egypt to Bangladesh on Twitter"><span>Retweet</span></a> <span class="twnumber">14</span></span>  <span class="fvfacebook_share"><a onclick="fvfacebook_share_local(31456,'http%3A%2F%2Fwww.juancole.com%2F2013%2F03%2Fopposition-religious-bangladesh.html'); return false" href="#" title="Share 'Muslim Opposition to the Muslim Religious Right Grows, from Egypt to Bangladesh' on Facebook"><span>Share</span></a> <span class="fvshnm">93</span></span> <span class="fvgoogleplusone"><a class="image" onclick="fvfb_google(31456); return false" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20130306034317/http://www.juancole.com/2013/03/opposition-religious-bangladesh.html" title="Click here to publicly +1 'Muslim Opposition to the Muslim Religious Right Grows, from Egypt to Bangladesh'"><span>Google +1</span></a> <span class="fvgoogleplusone-number">2</span></span> <span class="fvstumbleuppon"><a class="image" onclick="fvstumbleupon_local(31456,'http%3A%2F%2Fwww.juancole.com%2F2013%2F03%2Fopposition-religious-bangladesh.html'); return false" href="#" title="Submit Muslim Opposition to the Muslim Religious Right Grows, from Egypt to Bangladesh to StumbleUpon"><span>StumbleUpon</span></a> <span class="sunumber">0</span></span> <span class="fvfb_print"><a class="image" onclick="fvfb_print(31456); return false" href="#" title="Print a printer friendly version of Muslim Opposition to the Muslim Religious Right Grows, from Egypt to Bangladesh"><span>Printer Friendly</span></a></span> <span class="fvemail"><a class="image" target="_blank" onclick="fvfb_email(31456);" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20130306034317/mailto:/?subject=%22Muslim Opposition to the Muslim Religious Right Grows, from Egypt to Bangladesh%22 on Informed Comment&body=Link: http%3A%2F%2Fwww.juancole.com%2F2013%2F03%2Fopposition-religious-bangladesh.html %0D%0A%0D%0A----%0D%0A The headlines this week were full of stories from the Muslim world about Muslims attacking the Muslim religious Right, whether the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt or the Jama’at-i Islami in Bangladesh. The rise of the religious Right in politics is producing a backlash throughout the region. Part of the backlash comes from secularists of Muslim [...]" title="Send Muslim Opposition to the Muslim Religious Right Grows, from Egypt to Bangladesh with an email"><span>Send via email</span></a></span> </span> <p class="categories">Posted in <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20130306034317/http://www.juancole.com/egypt" title="View all posts in Egypt" rel="category tag">Egypt</a>, <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20130306034317/http://www.juancole.com/gulf" title="View all posts in Gulf" rel="category tag">Gulf</a>, <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20130306034317/http://www.juancole.com/pakistan" title="View all posts in Pakistan" rel="category tag">Pakistan</a>, <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20130306034317/http://www.juancole.com/pakistan-taliban" title="View all posts in Pakistan Taliban" rel="category tag">Pakistan Taliban</a>, <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20130306034317/http://www.juancole.com/taliban" title="View all posts in Taliban" rel="category tag">Taliban</a> | <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20130306034317/http://www.juancole.com/2013/03/opposition-religious-bangladesh.html#comments" title="Comment on Muslim Opposition to the Muslim Religious Right Grows, from Egypt to Bangladesh"><span class="commentcount">23</span> Comments</a> </p> </div> </div> <div class="post-31450 post type-post status-publish format-standard hentry category-drone"> <h2><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20130306034317/http://www.juancole.com/2013/03/decides-doesnt-currier.html" rel="bookmark" title="Permanent Link to How the US Decides Drone-kill People when it Doesn’t Know Who they Are (Currier)">How the US Decides Drone-kill People when it Doesn’t Know Who they Are (Currier)</a></h2> <p class="date">Posted on 03/02/2013 by Juan</p> <div class="entry"> <p><i> Cora Currier writes at ProPublica </i></p> <p>Earlier this week, <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20130306034317/http://www.propublica.org/article/drone-war-doctrine-we-know-nothing-about">we wrote about</a> a significant but often overlooked aspect of the drone wars in Pakistan and Yemen: so-called signature strikes, in which the U.S. kills people whose identities aren’t confirmed. While President Obama and administration officials have <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20130306034317/http://www.wilsoncenter.org/event/the-efficacy-and-ethics-us-counterterrorism-strategy/">framed</a> the drone program as targeting particular members of Al Qaeda, attacks against unknown militants reportedly <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20130306034317/http://articles.washingtonpost.com/2013-02-08/world/36988536_1_drone-program-special-court-judicial-review">may account</a> for the majority of strikes.</p> <p>The government apparently calls such attacks signature strikes because the targets are identified based on intelligence “signatures” that suggest involvement in terror plots or militant activity.</p> <p>So what signatures does the U.S. look for and how much evidence is needed to justify a strike?</p> <p>The Obama administration has never spoken publicly about signature strikes. Instead, generally anonymous officials have offered often vague examples of signatures. The resulting fragmentary picture leaves many questions unanswered.</p> <p>In Pakistan, a signature might include:</p> <p><strong>Training camps…</strong></p> <ul> <li> Convoys of vehicles that bear the characteristics of Qaeda or Taliban leaders on the run. – Senior American and Pakistani officials,<a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20130306034317/http://www.nytimes.com/2008/02/22/washington/22policy.html?_r=0">New York Times</a>, February 2008.</li> <li> “Terrorist training camps.” – U.S.<a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20130306034317/http://www.longwarjournal.org/threat-matrix/archives/2011/05/pakistani_official_urged_more.php#ixzz2LNRWaliZ">Diplomatic Cable</a> released by Wikileaks, October 2009.</li> <li> Gatherings of militant groups or training complexes. – Current and former officials, <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20130306034317/http://articles.latimes.com/2010/jan/31/world/la-fg-cia-awlaki31-2010jan31/2">Los Angeles Times</a>, January 2010.</li> <li> Bomb-making or fighters training for possible operations in Afghanistan…. a compound where unknown individuals were seen assembling a car bomb. – Officials, <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20130306034317/http://articles.latimes.com/2010/may/05/world/la-fg-drone-targets-20100506">Los Angeles Times</a>, May 2010.</li> <li> Travel in or out of a known al-Qaeda compoundor possession of explosives. – U.S. officials, <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20130306034317/http://www.washingtonpost.com/national/increased-us-drone-strikes-in-pakistan-killing-few-high-ranking-militants/2011/02/20/ABdO3YQ_print.html">Washington Post</a>, February 2011.</li> <li> Operating a training camp… consorting with known militants. – High-level American official, <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20130306034317/http://www.newyorker.com/reporting/2011/09/19/110919fa_fact_filkins">The New Yorker</a>, September 2011.</li> </ul> <p><strong>A group of guys… </strong></p> <ul> <li> Large groups of armed men. – Senior U.S. intelligence official, <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20130306034317/http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/03/27/white-house-drone-program-pakistan_n_1381549.html">Associated Press</a>, March 2012.</li> <li> Groups of armed militants traveling by truck toward the war in Afghanistan.–Administration officials, <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20130306034317/http://articles.washingtonpost.com/2012-04-25/world/35452363_1_signature-strikes-drone-strikes-qaeda">Washington Post</a>, April 2012.</li> <li> The joke was that when the C.I.A. sees “three guys doing jumping jacks,” the agency thinks it is a terrorist training camp. – Senior official, May 2012.</li> <li> “The definition is a male between the ages of 20 and 40″ – Former Ambassador to Pakistan Cameron Munter, <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20130306034317/http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2012/11/20/a-former-ambassador-to-pakistan-speaks-out.html">Daily Beast</a>, November 2012.</li> <li> “Armed men who we see getting into pickup trucks and heading towards the Afghanistan border or who are in a training exercise.” – Former Director of National Intelligence Dennis Blair, <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20130306034317/http://www.cfr.org/counterterrorism/us-drone-strike-policies/p29849">Council on Foreign Relations</a>, January 2013.</li> </ul> <p>Officials have characterized the intelligence that goes into these strikes as thorough, based on “<a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20130306034317/http://www.nytimes.com/2011/08/12/world/asia/12drones.html?pagewanted=all">days</a>” of drone surveillance and other sources—<a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20130306034317/http://www.lawfareblog.com/2013/02/kill-lists-and-network-analysis/">and said that</a> apparently low-level people may still be key to an organization’s functioning. In 2010, an official <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20130306034317/http://articles.latimes.com/2010/may/05/world/la-fg-drone-targets-20100506">told the Los Angeles Times</a> that the CIA makes sure “these are people whose actions over time have made it obvious that they are a threat.”</p> <p>In Yemen, signature strikes are reportedly <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20130306034317/http://articles.washingtonpost.com/2012-04-25/world/35452363_1_signature-strikes-drone-strikes-qaeda">bound by stricter rules</a>. Officials have often cited the necessity of a plot against Americans:</p> <ul> <li> Clear indication of the presence of an al-Qaeda leader or of plotting against targets in the United States or Americans overseas.– Administration officials, <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20130306034317/http://articles.washingtonpost.com/2012-04-25/world/35452363_1_signature-strikes-drone-strikes-qaeda">Washington Post</a>, April 2012.</li> <li> “Individuals who are personally involved in trying to kill Americans… or intelligence that…[for example] a truck has been configured in order to go after our embassy in Sanaa.”— Senior administration official, <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20130306034317/http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/cia-drone-strikes-will-get-pass-in-counterterrorism-playbook-officials-say/2013/01/19/ca169a20-618d-11e2-9940-6fc488f3fecd_print.html">Washington Post</a>, January 2013</li> </ul> <p>These strikes are not supposed to target “lower-level foot soldiers battling the Yemeni government,” U.S. officials <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20130306034317/http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304723304577366251852418174.html">told</a> the Wall Street Journal.  A White House spokesman <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20130306034317/http://articles.washingtonpost.com/2012-06-02/world/35459487_1_al-awlaki-yemen-affiliate-qaeda">said last summer</a> that the U.S. “[has] not and will not get involved in a broader counterinsurgency effort” in Yemen.</p> <p>But experts <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20130306034317/http://www.propublica.org/article/have-u.s.-drones-become-a-counterinsurgency-air-force-for-our-allies">say some strikes</a> in Yemen do appear to have been <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20130306034317/http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2012/03/us_drone_strike_kill_1.php">aimed at local militants</a>. In Pakistan, in addition to low-level militants who might be involved in the war in Afghanistan, the U.S. has <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20130306034317/http://www.nytimes.com/2012/11/25/world/white-house-presses-for-drone-rule-book.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0#p[BbmTit],h[BbmTit,1]">sometimes hit</a> those who posed a threat to the Pakistani government.</p> <p>As <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20130306034317/http://www.propublica.org/article/drone-war-doctrine-we-know-nothing-about">we detailed</a>, signature strikes have also been criticized by human rights groups and some legal observers because of the lack of transparency surrounding them, including on the number of civilians killed. </p> <p><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20130306034317/http://twitter.com/coracurrier">Follow @coracurrier</a></p> <link rel="canonical" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20130306034317/http://www.propublica.org/article/how-does-the-u.s.-mark-unidentified-men-in-pakistan-and-yemen-as-drone-targ/single"/><meta name="syndication-source" content="http://www.propublica.org/article/how-does-the-u.s.-mark-unidentified-men-in-pakistan-and-yemen-as-drone-targ/single"/><script type="text/javascript" src="https://web.archive.org/web/20130306034317js_/http://pixel.propublica.org/pixel.js" async></script><br/> <span class="fv_sharing"> <span class="fvreddit"><a class="reddit" target="_blank" onclick="fvreddit_local(31450);" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20130306034317/http://www.reddit.com/submit?url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.juancole.com%2F2013%2F03%2Fdecides-doesnt-currier.html" title="Reddit How the US Decides Drone-kill People when it Doesn’t Know Who they Are (Currier)"></a> <span class="rdnumber">0</span></span> <span class="fvretweet"><a class="image" target="_blank" onclick="fvretweet_local(31450);" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20130306034317/http://twitter.com/share?url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.juancole.com%2F2013%2F03%2Fdecides-doesnt-currier.html&text=How+the+US+Decides+Drone-kill+People+when+it+Doesn%E2%80%99t+Know+Who+they+Are+%28Currier%29" title="Retweet How the US Decides Drone-kill People when it Doesn’t Know Who they Are (Currier) on Twitter"><span>Retweet</span></a> <span class="twnumber">3</span></span>  <span class="fvfacebook_share"><a onclick="fvfacebook_share_local(31450,'http%3A%2F%2Fwww.juancole.com%2F2013%2F03%2Fdecides-doesnt-currier.html'); return false" href="#" title="Share 'How the US Decides Drone-kill People when it Doesn’t Know Who they Are (Currier)' on Facebook"><span>Share</span></a> <span class="fvshnm">13</span></span> <span class="fvgoogleplusone"><a class="image" onclick="fvfb_google(31450); return false" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20130306034317/http://www.juancole.com/2013/03/decides-doesnt-currier.html" title="Click here to publicly +1 'How the US Decides Drone-kill People when it Doesn’t Know Who they Are (Currier)'"><span>Google +1</span></a> <span class="fvgoogleplusone-number">0</span></span> <span class="fvstumbleuppon"><a class="image" onclick="fvstumbleupon_local(31450,'http%3A%2F%2Fwww.juancole.com%2F2013%2F03%2Fdecides-doesnt-currier.html'); return false" href="#" title="Submit How the US Decides Drone-kill People when it Doesn’t Know Who they Are (Currier) to StumbleUpon"><span>StumbleUpon</span></a> <span class="sunumber">0</span></span> <span class="fvfb_print"><a class="image" onclick="fvfb_print(31450); return false" href="#" title="Print a printer friendly version of How the US Decides Drone-kill People when it Doesn’t Know Who they Are (Currier)"><span>Printer Friendly</span></a></span> <span class="fvemail"><a class="image" target="_blank" onclick="fvfb_email(31450);" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20130306034317/mailto:/?subject=%22How the US Decides Drone-kill People when it Doesn’t Know Who they Are (Currier)%22 on Informed Comment&body=Link: http%3A%2F%2Fwww.juancole.com%2F2013%2F03%2Fdecides-doesnt-currier.html %0D%0A%0D%0A----%0D%0A Cora Currier writes at ProPublica Earlier this week, we wrote about a significant but often overlooked aspect of the drone wars in Pakistan and Yemen: so-called signature strikes, in which the U.S. kills people whose identities aren’t confirmed. 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title="Israel Lobby asks Congress to Approve Attack on Iran & to Exempt Israel from Sequester, 03/04/2013">John L Hansen</a>: What are the numerous examples, other than economic (bucks), that are “US national...</li> <li><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20130306034317/http://www.juancole.com/2013/03/congress-approve-sequester.html#comment-182363" title="Israel Lobby asks Congress to Approve Attack on Iran & to Exempt Israel from Sequester, 03/04/2013">David Connor</a>: My comment–perhaps unpublishable in its unedited form–is in the spirit and facetiousness of...</li> </ul></li> <li><strong><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20130306034317/http://www.juancole.com/2013/03/officially-spills-killed.html" title="The Syrian Civil War comes to Iraq, as 8 Iraqi and 48 Syrian Troops are Killed on Iraqi Soil was posted on 03/05/2013">The Syrian Civil War comes to Iraq, as 8 Iraqi and 48 Syrian Troops are Killed on Iraqi Soil</a> (<a href="#" title="There are 10 comments to this posting">10</a>)</strong><ul> <li><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20130306034317/http://www.juancole.com/2013/03/officially-spills-killed.html#comment-182353" title="The Syrian Civil War comes to Iraq, as 8 Iraqi and 48 Syrian Troops are Killed on Iraqi Soil, 03/05/2013">joe from Lowell</a>: It is not entirely clear to me why Assad smashing his opposition and committing a gigantic massacre...</li> <li><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20130306034317/http://www.juancole.com/2013/03/officially-spills-killed.html#comment-182352" title="The Syrian Civil War comes to Iraq, as 8 Iraqi and 48 Syrian Troops are Killed on Iraqi Soil, 03/05/2013">joe from Lowell</a>: The jihadist presence has grown steadily over time; they were not a significant part of the fighters...</li> </ul></li> <li><strong><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20130306034317/http://www.juancole.com/2013/03/liberal-boycott-elections.html" title="Egypt on the Brink: The Danger of a Left-Liberal Boycott of Elections was posted on 03/04/2013">Egypt on the Brink: The Danger of a Left-Liberal Boycott of Elections</a> (<a href="#" title="There are 3 comments to this posting">3</a>)</strong><ul> <li><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20130306034317/http://www.juancole.com/2013/03/liberal-boycott-elections.html#comment-182288" title="Egypt on the Brink: The Danger of a Left-Liberal Boycott of Elections, 03/04/2013">The Raven</a>: The question comes up: will Morsi allow elected leftists any real power, or will he simply force through...</li> </ul></li> <li><strong><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20130306034317/http://www.juancole.com/2013/03/austerity-democracy-europe.html" title="Austerity and the threat to Democracy, in the US, Europe and the Middle East was posted on 03/03/2013">Austerity and the threat to Democracy, in the US, Europe and the Middle East</a> (<a href="#" title="There are 28 comments to this posting">28</a>)</strong><ul> <li><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20130306034317/http://www.juancole.com/2013/03/austerity-democracy-europe.html#comment-182138" title="Austerity and the threat to Democracy, in the US, Europe and the Middle East, 03/03/2013">super390</a>: Brian, The problem is, I’ve never seen anyone in any faction of the far right say that there was...</li> </ul></li> </ul></div></li><li id="archives-2" class="widget-container widget_archive"><h3 class="widget-title">Archives</h3> <select name="archive-dropdown" onchange="document.location.href=this.options[this.selectedIndex].value;"> <option value="">Select Month</option> <option value="http://www.juancole.com/2013/03"> March 2013  (11)</option> <option value="http://www.juancole.com/2013/02"> February 2013  (70)</option> <option value="http://www.juancole.com/2013/01"> January 2013  (74)</option> <option value="http://www.juancole.com/2012/12"> December 2012  (96)</option> <option value="http://www.juancole.com/2012/11"> November 2012 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