大咖说钢市：传统淡季即将到来，11月受多重因素影响钢价或震荡运行-我的钢铁网

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#e10000;">12</span>位来自钢厂和贸易商等企业的独家观点，一起碰撞思维火花。</p> <p><strong>核心观点：</strong></p> <p><strong><span style="color: #000000;">1.供应方面，大咖们表示目前部分产品订单相较上月有所下滑，但另外部分产品需求有所上升，不同产品需求不一。若需求上升，供给侧会及时积极响应，若需求表现一般，钢厂利润情况不佳，则会有检修计划。</span></strong></p> <p><strong><span style="color: #000000;">2.需求方面，大咖们表示新订单情况无太大改善，叠加资金情况并不理想，主要持谨慎态度并处于低库存运行状态。对于冬储需求，大咖们表示暂未出明确的冬储计划，需要根据市场情况进行调整，但存在被动冬储的情况，冬储价格的心理预期在3500左右。</span></strong></p> <p><strong><span style="color: #000000;">3.对于11月份的行情，大咖们表示目前影响钢价的因素过多，宏观层面利好政策提振了市场信心，但地缘冲突仍在升级，10月PMI回落至荣枯线以下，且国内需求表现仍较疲软，弱现实的影响下，虽宏观利好刺激了钢价上涨，但难以形成趋势性上升，预计11月钢价或以震荡运行为主。</span></strong></p> <p><span style="color: #e10000;">1、供应话题：10月钢价持续下行趋势，原料却依旧坚挺，目前还是挤压钢厂利润的基本面，请问目前钢厂的利润情况如何？在利润不理想的情况下，目前钢厂是否有减产计划，是否有通过缩产提升利润的意愿？</span></p> <p><img style="width: 400px; height: 67px;" src="//img08.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2023/11/03/2a4d3da572d140e0b1707533dc0d843f.png" width="600" height="100" /></p> <p>10月份，制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为49.5%，比上月下降0.7个百分点，降至收缩区间，制造业景气水平有所回落。目前公司<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-968-----01010903-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>焊管</a>产品订单有所下滑，声测管产品需求回升，积极备产为主。</p> <p><img style="width: 400px; height: 67px;" src="//img02.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2023/11/03/198b72598cbf46d9891c3084d25f3dd1.png" width="600" height="100" /></p> <p>鑫鹏<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-968-----010109-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>钢管</a>2条无缝钢管生产线今年基本上维持满负荷生产，平均日均生产2500吨，但是今年<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-968-----01010901-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>无缝管</a>的价格一直处于震荡偏弱态势，原材料价格还不断抬升，整体利润非常薄弱，11月份在行情没有明显变化的情况下，厂里可能会安排短时间的检修计划。</p> <p><span style="color: #e10000;">2、需求话题：随即进入11月，冬季即将来临，请问贵公司是否有冬储意愿，对于冬储价格的心理预期是多少？目前贵公司的新开工及新订单情况如何，近期企业的下游资金情况是否有所改善？</span></p> <p><img style="width: 400px; height: 67px;" src="//img07.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2023/11/03/14b0b72d561e4af0b936d08ae1964cb5.png" width="600" height="100" /></p> <p>目前低库存运行，不会备货太多，大家普遍持谨慎态度。这个月新订单情况与上月相比，基本保持维稳。近期企业下游资金情况不太理想，很多地方上的项目一年没付下游款，垫资出去的应收账款也不好收回。目前没有冬储计划，如果有计划，会选择期货上备，3500以下会考虑多备一些。</p> <p><img style="width: 400px; height: 67px;" src="//img01.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2023/11/03/873f06cb72fa4ba7ac2562b5b38804be.png" width="600" height="101" /></p> <p>对于库存方面暂时不做考虑，目前公司没有库存，短期以轻库存为主，冬储计划暂时没公布，到时候根据政策在进行调整，少量冬储，心理价格为3500左右。</p> <p><img style="width: 400px; height: 68px;" src="//img07.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2023/11/03/d3b69f8c42d54771882db7e389f07720.png" width="600" height="102" /></p> <p>对于冬储，今年价格下跌后经历几个月的震荡，现货价格在近几年偏低位置，如果有合适位置可以考虑适当冬储。</p> <p><img style="width: 400px; height: 68px;" src="//img01.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2023/11/03/516aa37dc19c4243a23fcc9e3a9085c7.png" width="600" height="102" /></p> <p>根据今年市场行情总体来看，宏观利好政策影响下，市场信心有所恢复，但大家仍持谨慎乐观的态度，市场需求有所恢复，但增长幅度不大。因此都是低库存、以出库为主的操作。下半年经济开始回暖，订单比上半年有所增多，但是未恢复至疫情之前的水平。相较于上半年，资金回笼有所改善，但不及预期，导致一些地方开始出现下游供应商停止供货等情况。关于冬储的价格，华东地区2023年为<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-968-----010101-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>螺纹钢</a>3950元/吨，盘螺4150元/吨，后结算销售价螺纹钢4000元/吨，盘螺4200元/吨，后结算客户付利息计算，按照0.7%/月标准，按天计算。今年的冬储政策主要以锁价，保值为主，同时提高了起缴资金门槛。</p> <p><img style="width: 400px; height: 67px;" src="//img01.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2023/11/03/2a4d3da572d140e0b1707533dc0d843f.png" width="600" height="100" /></p> <p>目前下游需求订单尚可，但下游回款不畅，库存依旧维持有效低位运行。冬储价格应该处于3400-3500元/吨之间比较合理。冬储量仅维持在年初市场启动需求为主，避免因市场冬储计划将冬存周期缩短至2个月以内。</p> <p><img style="width: 400px; height: 69px;" src="//img06.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2023/11/03/670e7beba20944caac365f2a64cdc1ea.png" width="600" height="104" /></p> <p>随着11月的到来，钢材市场进入了传统淡季。在这个时期，我们的库存管理策略会有所调整，我们会密切关注市场动态，根据实际需求来调整采购和销售计划，基本保持不建敞口库存，同时加强与供应商的沟通，确保在必要时能够及时补充库存。目前，我们公司的新开工项目和新订单情况较年中相比尚可。虽然淡季对市场需求有一定影响，但从10月份的采购需求来看，项目施工节奏还是在紧追进度，外部合作客户也处于年底最后的冲刺阶段，整体来看新开较好。此外，近期下游资金状况不太好，已合作客户普遍反映业主方工程款不到位，从9月份开始，项目回款明显压力较大，按时履约程度较低。</p> <p><img style="width: 400px; height: 68px;" src="//img02.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2023/11/03/94f776dbb8bb4ed6ac82b9c22f919674.png" width="600" height="101" /></p> <p align="left">即将进入11月，我司下游客户新开工项目并不多，主要还是些新基建项目，资金方面还是偏紧张，很多都是按回款情况供货。考虑到后期的协议量冬储，库存管理方面还是以减仓为主，同时合理的低价补库，快进快出。今年冬储应该会更加谨慎，近期政策利好频出，原材料价格偏高，而市场需求还是比较疲软，后期供需没有明显改变，市场信心得不到提振，现货价格恐难有起色，仍以承压为主。</p> <p><img style="width: 400px; height: 68px;" src="//img05.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2023/11/03/9c2331442ed940c6afe578d280b1626b.png" width="600" height="101" /></p> <p>冬储方面，目前主动冬储意愿不大，但因为是钢厂代理，需要完成月协议量，会有被动冬储，毕竟需要有一部分库存，年后需求启动后不至于无货可卖。</p> <p><span style="color: #e10000;">3、冬季即将到来，商家目前心态如何，对市场预期如何？11月份行情怎么看？</span></p> <p><img style="width: 400px; height: 67px;" src="//img03.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2023/11/03/14b0b72d561e4af0b936d08ae1964cb5.png" width="600" height="100" /></p> <p>11月份并不太看好，一个是施工进度开始有所减缓，需求恢复的不会那么快，而且现在市场情绪并不向好，大家十分求稳，对于11月整体的行情预期感觉还是震荡为主。</p> <p><img style="width: 400px; height: 67px;" src="//img02.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2023/11/03/873f06cb72fa4ba7ac2562b5b38804be.png" width="600" height="101" /></p> <p>最近表需较好，反映出总体需求的韧性在，螺纹钢低产量、低库存、价格也相对不高，但本身矛盾不突出，更多的随着原料价格波动，预计以震荡为主。心态上，总体仍然偏谨慎，但也不过分看空。</p> <p><img style="width: 400px; height: 68px;" src="//img08.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2023/11/03/d3b69f8c42d54771882db7e389f07720.png" width="600" height="102" /></p> <p>目前宏观方面，财政政策宽松明显加码，基建项目资金紧张的情况将明显缓解，对市场情绪形成提振。供应方面，近期库存有所下降，不过由于当前仍处于季节性旺季，库存去化并未超季节性规律，而若11月后终端需求季节性下降，仍会存在累库的压力。需求方面，目前表需回暖，成交有所好转，下游仍按需补库为主，终端需求复苏缓慢，钢厂亏损，市场多空分歧增大，螺纹钢行情波动加剧，后期预计螺纹盘面表现或将震荡偏强。</p> <p><img style="width: 400px; height: 67px;" src="//img08.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2023/11/03/198b72598cbf46d9891c3084d25f3dd1.png" width="600" height="100" /></p> <p>近期宏观面利好政策支持力度比较大，但是海外不确定性因素也比较多，国内方面市场信心的建立还是需要一定时间，目前传统旺季快要过去，北方市场的需求后期会逐步减弱，叠加目前各大厂家手里库存都不低，目前阶段还是以消化库存为主，市场上涨意愿不是很强。因此对于11份态度还是保持谨慎乐观，宏观政策刺激与原材料成本支撑，但是海外不确定性因素以及国内需求逐渐进入淡季，预计11月份无缝钢管价格或形成震荡格局。</p> <p><img style="width: 400px; height: 68px;" src="//img05.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2023/11/03/516aa37dc19c4243a23fcc9e3a9085c7.png" width="600" height="102" /></p> <p> 10月份钢铁流通企业销售量指数为46.5%，较上月下降4.6个百分点，重回收缩区间；订单指数为46.2%，较上月下降2.9个百分点，在收缩区间内有所回落，表明国内钢市已经进入传统旺季的尾声阶段，终端需求释放力度不及预期，呈现明显的旺季不旺特征。11月份整体市场受到多重因素的影响，中东冲突快速升温，欧美加息或将暂停，国内经济恢复向好，积极因素累积增多，但国内需求仍显不足，传统旺季转向淡季，钢铁产量调控政策等因素都将影响着市场行情的走势。预计11月份国内钢材市场将在供给逐渐收缩、淡季效应显现等条件共同影响下，继续呈现震荡筑底的行情。</p> <p><img style="width: 400px; height: 69px;" src="//img06.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2023/11/03/670e7beba20944caac365f2a64cdc1ea.png" width="600" height="104" /></p> <p>关于冬储计划，我们已经在积极筹备中。我们会根据市场情况和公司的实际需求来决定冬储的规模和时间。至于冬储价格的心理预期，我们认为会受到多种因素的影响，包括原材料价格、运输成本、市场预期等。加上今年目前这个价位钢厂普遍反映亏损，我们将密切关注这些因素的变化，以便做出合理的预测。</p> <p><img style="width: 400px; height: 68px;" src="//img05.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2023/11/03/9c2331442ed940c6afe578d280b1626b.png" width="600" height="101" /></p> <p>对于11月份行情，目前认为先扬后抑或者先抑后扬都有可能，整体还是震荡行情，单边上涨或者单边下跌行情概率非常低。今年在弱现实情况下，市场心态谨慎，此外以房地产为主的<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-968-----010101-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>建筑钢材</a>主要终端行业需求严重萎缩且短期不可逆转，今年后面两个月需求也难以有明显好转，价格持续上涨阻力较大，不过随着10月底增发一万亿国债消息出台以及目前中大<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-968-----010107-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>型钢</a>厂普遍亏钱，成本托底，价格持续下跌概率也不大。目前倾向于主动出货，降库存。</p> <p><img style="width: 400px; height: 68px;" src="//img02.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2023/11/03/b9d444f7b62542c29dd1baa867526e2a.png" width="600" height="101" /></p> <p>11月份，钢材市场实际需求仍然较弱，有的灵活性比较强的电炉厂采取了夜晚生产白天休息的模式，而且转炉企业由于设备的特点，无法灵活调度生产节奏，只能采取以价格换取市场的策略，导致内卷加剧，行业平均利润水平得到进一步压缩。从政策面来看，维持政策的稳定性与精准性，将会是政策发力的主要特色，不要对大水漫灌式的刺激政策抱有幻想。</p>  <br /> </div> </div> </article> <article class="content-block m-copyRight"> 资讯编辑：刘儒 021-26096617 </br> 资讯监督：胡赛男 021-26093781 </br> 资讯投诉：陈杰 021-26093100 </br> </article> <article class="content-block m-copyRight h-statement"> <p 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