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Macroscope | Will China’s fiscal bazooka fire as forcefully as investors hope? | South China Morning Post
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Expectation management","articleBody":"There are plenty of sceptics and critics when it comes to China’s latest stimulus package. But even the naysayers admit Beijing has changed the calculus for the performance of Chinese stocks. Before the bevy of measures were announced in late September, the odds of a durable rally were slim to none.\nFast forward to today and the outlook for Chinese equities is no longer a one-way bet. Morgan Stanley believes a policy pivot has occurred but asks whether it is “sufficient to deliver an exit from deflation”. The company sees a “wide range of potential outcomes” for Chinese and other Asian stock markets.\nTo be sure, the uncertainty stems from several factors. The stunning victory of Donald Trump in the US presidential election has provided impetus to the rally in the dollar, driven bond yields higher and set the stage for more punitive tariffs on imported goods. With Trump enjoying a much stronger mandate than when he was elected in 2016, more nationalist and protectionist policies that stoke inflation are in store.\nThe most important determinant of sentiment towards China, however, is the much-anticipated yet contentious fiscal component of the stimulus package.\nBy announcing a series of aggressive measures to recapitalise banks, refinance local government debt and buy unsold houses to reduce inventory, Beijing unleashed a torrent of speculation over the scale of the fiscal stimulus in the coming years.\nThe lack of clarity over the size and composition of the package has resulted in a dangerous mismatch between the expectations of investors and Beijing’s priorities.\n\n\nAs markets await the details of the plan, due to be approved at the end of the conclave of the National People’s Congress (NPC) Standing Committee on November 8, magic numbers are being bandied around by Wall Street banks. Morgan Stanley believes a 10 trillion yuan (US$1.4 trillion) fiscal stimulus, amounting to about 5 per cent of China’s economic output, over a two-year period targeting consumers is one of the preconditions for ending deflation.\nThis is wishful thinking, mainly because Beijing’s objective is stabilisation as opposed to reflation, but also because local government debt restructuring is the main plank of the fiscal expansion. It also shows that the biggest challenge facing Chinese policymakers is managing expectations.\nEven before Beijing fires its fiscal bazooka, there are signs the more forceful response is having a positive impact on the real economy. A gauge of private services sector activity experienced its sharpest monthly rise since March last year. Manufacturing output is expanding again while new home sales have risen sharply over the past several weeks, exceeding 2021-23 levels.\nThis adds to the uncertainty over how aggressive Beijing should be on the fiscal front. It also suggests a bolder and more clearly communicated policy package would have injected more confidence into the economy. By going big at the outset, policymakers would have got more bang for their buck, potentially without having to deploy as much stimulus. It is now more difficult and costly to exceed investors’ expectations.\n\n\nHowever, the fundamental reason the dissonance between policymakers and markets is likely to persist is the scale of the structural, economic and geopolitical challenges facing China in the coming years, amplified by Trump’s resounding victory.\nFirst, there are significant constraints on the size and effectiveness of any fiscal stimulus programme. As Goldman Sachs notes, the downturn in the property sector and related industries – which still account for nearly 20 per cent of economic activity – and the weakness of household consumption are likely to result in “policy transmission” being “less efficient than [in] previous easing cycles”.\nIn addition to weak household income growth, persistent deflationary pressures have depressed corporate revenues, resulting in a sharp decline in tax revenues. This does not only limit the scope for fiscal stimulus, but also keeps the stock market under pressure. Except for the financial sector, corporate earnings fell at a steeper pace last quarter.\nSecond, Beijing is focused on “high-quality development”, whereby investments in high-end manufacturing plug the demand gap left by property-related sectors. The prioritisation of investment over consumption is something markets are struggling to come to terms with because it prolongs weak domestic demand and fans fears of China turning into 1990s Japan.\n\n\nChina’s bond market warrants close attention. The yield on China’s 30-year bond is on the cusp of converging with Japan’s. That says more about deflationary conditions in China than it does about the return of inflation in Japan. The most reliable gauge of the effectiveness of China’s stimulus package is the benchmark 10-year bond yield which has barely budged since the policy shift in late September.\nThird, the approval of the package of fiscal measures by the NPC Standing Committee is not the final word on stimulus. Trump’s victory puts more pressure on Beijing to bolster its defences against the threat of much steeper tariffs. Nomura believes the fiscal stimulus will be 10-20 per cent bigger with Trump back in the White House.\nHowever, this suggests boosting domestic demand will be the main weapon against higher tariffs. Investors banking on more consumption stimulus due to Trump’s victory will be disappointed. Robin Brooks of the Brookings Institution recently tweeted that “China has only one option in response to tariffs: allow the [yuan] to fall hard and fast”. He also tweeted: “Markets should stop chasing China stimulus.”\nBeijing is partly to blame for raising expectations. But investors need to reconcile themselves to the geopolitical and economic realities of Chinese policymaking.\n","articleSection":"China Opinion","author":{"@type":"Person","name":"Nicholas Spiro","sameAs":"https://www.scmp.com/author/nicholas-spiro"},"dateCreated":"2024-11-07T16:08:16+08:00","dateModified":"2024-11-07T21:23:33+08:00","datePublished":"2024-11-07T20:30:07+08:00","description":"There are plenty of sceptics and critics when it comes to China’s ","genre":"Opinion","hasPart":{"@type":"WebPageElement","cssSelector":".paywalled-content","isAccessibleForFree":"False"},"headline":"Macroscope | Will China’s fiscal bazooka fire as forcefully as investors 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class="css-1g12ro2 e1q1c9am0">Macroscope<span data-qa="ContentHeadlineTag-renderFlag-FlagDivider" class="css-0 e1q1c9am1"> | </span></span><span data-qa="ContentHeadline-Headline" class="css-0 e298i0d2">Will China’s fiscal bazooka fire as forcefully as investors hope?</span></h1></div><div data-qa="GenericArticle-SubHeadline" class="css-dfnclb ea45u6l20"><h3 class="er6t7fe4 css-19mvk5a e1ql5f172" data-qa="ContentSubHeadline-ContainerWithTag"><p datatype="p" data-qa="Component-Component" class="e8zc9q40 css-1c6uqr6 ec74h0k1">As Beijing prioritises stability and development over reflation, investors must reconcile themselves to the realities of Chinese policymaking</p></h3></div><div data-qa="GenericArticle-Sponsor" class="css-1qzrjqn ea45u6l19"></div><div data-qa="GenericArticle-ReadingTime" class="css-1ic67f3 ea45u6l18"><div class=" er6t7fe21 css-1cyqcxd e17crirv0" data-qa="ArticleReadingTime-Container"><span>Reading Time:</span><strong data-qa="ArticleReadingTime-strong">3 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operator="out"></feComposite><feColorMatrix type="matrix" values="0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.25 0"></feColorMatrix><feBlend mode="normal" in2="BackgroundImageFix" result="effect1_dropShadow_971_51319"></feBlend><feBlend mode="normal" in="SourceGraphic" in2="effect1_dropShadow_971_51319" result="shape"></feBlend></filter></defs></svg></figure></div></div><div data-qa="GenericArticle-ContentContainer" class="css-wvfhp ea45u6l28"><div data-qa="GenericArticle-Author" class="css-plhgzi ea45u6l15"><div data-qa="AuthorNames-AuthorNamesContainer" class=" er6t7fe31 css-1fl3ncg eybiz6w3"><a target="_self" class="e163ld431 css-uvyeg2 e1llv60l0" href="/author/nicholas-spiro" data-qa="BaseLink-renderAnchor-StyledAnchor">Nicholas Spiro</a></div></div><div data-qa="GenericArticle-PublishDateTime" class="css-mbzp8v ea45u6l14"><div class=" er6t7fe27 css-1qbx4v2 efakuk42" data-qa="Article20Date-Container"><time dateTime="2024-11-07T12:30:07.000Z" data-qa="Article20Date-PublishedDate" class="css-0 efakuk41">Published: <!-- -->8:30pm, 7 Nov 2024</time><time dateTime="2024-11-07T13:23:33.000Z" data-qa="Article20Date-UpdatedDate" class="css-m6ip7c efakuk40">Updated: <!-- -->9:23pm, 7 Nov 2024</time></div></div><div data-qa="GenericArticle-Correction" class="css-1ou8zht ea45u6l11"></div><div data-qa="GenericArticle-Content" class="css-1u2o0u6 ea45u6l10"><section class="er6t7fe37 css-19sk4h4 e1pqt1t0" data-qa="ContentBody-ContentBodyContainer"><div class="js-reading-0-percent-completion-tracker css-19icq8a ekyy9du0" data-qa="useTrackViewedPercentageRender-trackViewedPercentageRenders-TrackPercentageBlock"></div><div datatype="p" data-qa="Component-Component" class="e8zc9q40 css-1xdhyk6 ec74h0k0">There are plenty of sceptics and critics when it comes to China’s <a target="_self" class="e1yy41x40 ef9u0v01 css-1ankfgb e1llv60l0" href="https://www.scmp.com/economy/policy/article/3279756/7-takeaways-chinas-most-significant-stimulus-package-pandemic?module=inline&pgtype=article?module=inline&pgtype=article" data-qa="BaseLink-renderAnchor-StyledAnchor"><span data-qa="Component-Text" class="css-0 ef9u0v00">latest stimulus package</span></a>. But even the naysayers admit Beijing has changed the calculus for the performance of Chinese stocks. Before the bevy of measures were announced in late September, the odds of a durable rally were slim to none.</div><div data-qa="InlineAdSlot-Container" class=" css-zl1inp e11v3ui14"><div class="e11v3ui10 e11v3ui13 css-y2bwcc e1flwkbl0" data-qa="AdSlot-Container"><div data-qa="AdSlot-Label" class="css-1t8iakn e1flwkbl3">Advertisement</div><div data-qa="AdSlot-AdSlotContainer" class="css-0 e1flwkbl2"></div></div></div><p datatype="p" data-qa="Component-Component" class="e8zc9q40 css-1c6uqr6 ec74h0k1">Fast forward to today and the outlook for Chinese equities is no longer a one-way bet. Morgan Stanley believes a policy pivot has occurred but asks whether it is “sufficient to deliver an exit from deflation”. The company sees a “wide range of potential outcomes” for Chinese and other Asian stock markets.</p><div datatype="p" data-qa="Component-Component" class="e8zc9q40 css-1xdhyk6 ec74h0k0">To be sure, the uncertainty stems from several factors. The stunning victory of <a target="_self" class="e1yy41x40 ef9u0v01 css-1ankfgb e1llv60l0" href="https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3285460/its-trump-taut-race-ends-former-president-returning-white-house?module=inline&pgtype=article" data-qa="BaseLink-renderAnchor-StyledAnchor"><span data-qa="Component-Text" class="css-0 ef9u0v00">Donald Trump</span></a> in the <a target="_self" class="e1yy41x40 ef9u0v01 css-1ankfgb e1llv60l0" href="https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/series/3281928/us-elections-2024-what-you-need-know?module=inline&pgtype=article?module=inline&pgtype=article" data-qa="BaseLink-renderAnchor-StyledAnchor"><span data-qa="Component-Text" class="css-0 ef9u0v00">US presidential election</span></a> has provided impetus to the rally in the dollar, driven bond yields higher and set the stage for more <a target="_self" class="e1yy41x40 ef9u0v01 css-1ankfgb e1llv60l0" href="https://www.scmp.com/economy/global-economy/article/3264718/trumps-proposed-china-import-tariffs-would-hit-average-americans-us1700-tax-increase-researchers?module=inline&pgtype=article?module=inline&pgtype=article" data-qa="BaseLink-renderAnchor-StyledAnchor"><span data-qa="Component-Text" class="css-0 ef9u0v00">punitive tariffs</span></a> on imported goods. With Trump enjoying a much stronger mandate than when he was elected in 2016, more nationalist and protectionist policies that stoke inflation are in store.</div><div class="js-reading-20-percent-completion-tracker css-19icq8a ekyy9du0" data-qa="useTrackViewedPercentageRender-trackViewedPercentageRenders-TrackPercentageBlock"></div><p datatype="p" data-qa="Component-Component" class="e8zc9q40 css-1c6uqr6 ec74h0k1">The most important determinant of sentiment towards China, however, is the much-anticipated yet contentious fiscal component of the stimulus package.</p><div datatype="p" data-qa="Component-Component" class="e8zc9q40 css-1xdhyk6 ec74h0k0">By announcing a series of aggressive measures to <a target="_self" class="e1yy41x40 ef9u0v01 css-1ankfgb e1llv60l0" href="https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3236323/chinas-indebted-local-governments-splash-out-billions-save-struggling-small-banks?module=inline&pgtype=article" data-qa="BaseLink-renderAnchor-StyledAnchor"><span data-qa="Component-Text" class="css-0 ef9u0v00">recapitalise banks</span></a>, refinance <a target="_self" class="e1yy41x40 ef9u0v01 css-1ankfgb e1llv60l0" href="https://www.scmp.com/economy/policy/article/3283483/will-stimulus-package-help-chinas-local-governments-pay-bills?module=inline&pgtype=article" data-qa="BaseLink-renderAnchor-StyledAnchor"><span data-qa="Component-Text" class="css-0 ef9u0v00">local government debt</span></a> and buy <a target="_self" class="e1yy41x40 ef9u0v01 css-1ankfgb e1llv60l0" href="https://www.scmp.com/business/china-business/article/3263127/china-property-beijing-launches-us41-billion-fund-buy-unsold-homes-major-drive-rescue-housing-market?module=inline&pgtype=article?module=inline&pgtype=article?module=inline&pgtype=article" data-qa="BaseLink-renderAnchor-StyledAnchor"><span data-qa="Component-Text" class="css-0 ef9u0v00">unsold houses</span></a> to reduce inventory, Beijing unleashed a torrent of speculation over the scale of the fiscal stimulus in the coming years.</div><div data-qa="InlineAdSlot-Container" class=" css-zl1inp e11v3ui14"><div class="e11v3ui10 e11v3ui13 css-gy323d e1flwkbl0" data-qa="AdSlot-Container"><div data-qa="AdSlot-Label" class="css-1t8iakn e1flwkbl3">Advertisement</div><div data-qa="AdSlot-AdSlotContainer" class="css-0 e1flwkbl2"></div></div></div><div datatype="p" data-qa="Component-Component" class="e8zc9q40 css-1xdhyk6 ec74h0k0">The lack of clarity over the size and composition of the package has resulted in a dangerous mismatch between the expectations of investors and <a target="_self" class="e1yy41x40 ef9u0v01 css-1ankfgb e1llv60l0" href="https://www.scmp.com/opinion/china-opinion/article/3282686/are-markets-misreading-chinas-economic-priorities?module=inline&pgtype=article" data-qa="BaseLink-renderAnchor-StyledAnchor"><span data-qa="Component-Text" class="css-0 ef9u0v00">Beijing’s priorities</span></a>.</div></section></div><div data-qa="GenericArticle-PaywallContainer" class="css-1kfpym9 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...helpersCheckIsMainTopicContent\n ...contentSchemaRenderContent\n}\n\nfragment articleTitleArticle on Article {\n types {\n value {\n name\n id\n }\n }\n authors {\n name\n id\n }\n}\n\nfragment articleTopicContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n topics {\n ...topicLinkTopic\n id\n }\n}\n\nfragment articleTopicFollowWidgetArticle on Article {\n topics {\n ...topicLinkTopic\n ...entityFollowButtonBase\n disableFollow\n entityId\n name\n entityUuid\n id\n }\n}\n\nfragment articleTopicWidgetArticle on Article {\n entityId\n sponsorType\n firstTopic {\n ...entityLink\n ...followButtonBase\n name\n disableFollow\n contents(first: 4, orderBy: {field: PUBLISHED_DATE, direction: DESC}) {\n edges {\n node {\n __typename\n entityId\n ...articleWidgetContent\n id\n }\n }\n }\n id\n }\n}\n\nfragment articleTopicsContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n topics {\n ...topicLinkTopic\n ...entityFollowButtonBase\n entityId\n entityUuid\n name\n id\n }\n}\n\nfragment 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\"540x360\"}) {\n url\n }\n }\n}\n\nfragment contentCoverImageContent_D9JlW on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n images {\n url\n title\n type\n size80x80: style(filter: {style: \"80x80\"}) {\n url\n }\n }\n}\n\nfragment contentCoverVideoContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n ... on Article {\n multimediaEmbed {\n json\n }\n ...contentSchemaRenderContent\n }\n}\n\nfragment contentHeadlineContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n headline\n socialHeadline\n ...contentHeadlineTagContent\n ...helpersUseContentSponsorContent\n}\n\nfragment contentHeadlineTagContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n ...hooksContentHeadlineTagContent\n}\n\nfragment contentLiveArticleArticle on Article {\n ...itemLiveArticleContentArticle\n}\n\nfragment contentLiveTagContent on Article {\n ...helpersCheckHasLiveTagArticle\n}\n\nfragment contentNewsletterArticleArticle on Article {\n entityId\n relatedLinks\n}\n\nfragment contentNewsletterWidgetContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n topics {\n relatedNewsletters {\n ...helpersMassageToNewsletterItemNewsletter\n id\n }\n id\n }\n sections {\n value {\n relatedNewsletters {\n ...helpersMassageToNewsletterItemNewsletter\n id\n }\n id\n }\n }\n ... on Article {\n relatedNewsletters {\n ...helpersMassageToNewsletterItemNewsletter\n id\n }\n }\n}\n\nfragment contentPublishedDateContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n publishedDate\n}\n\nfragment contentReadMoreButtonContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n ...appButtonContent\n}\n\nfragment contentSchemaRenderContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n ...blockquoteQuoteContent\n ...imageContent\n ...inlineWidgetContent\n ...photoGalleryWidgetContent\n ...scmpYoutubeContent\n}\n\nfragment contentShareWidgetContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n entityId\n urlAlias\n shortUrl\n socialHeadline\n headline\n}\n\nfragment contentSponsorTagContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n ...helpersUseContentSponsorContent\n}\n\nfragment contentSubHeadlineContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n subHeadline {\n json\n }\n summary {\n json\n }\n ...contentSchemaRenderContent\n}\n\nfragment contentSummaryContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n __typename\n summary {\n text\n }\n}\n\nfragment contentUpdatedDateContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n updatedDate\n}\n\nfragment contextsArticleListContextProviderArticle on Article {\n entityId\n}\n\nfragment contextsContentReadMoreContextProviderContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n ...helpersGetArticleTypeArticle\n ...helpersCheckIsStyleArticle\n ... on Article {\n sponsorType\n }\n}\n\nfragment copyLinkArticle20CopyLinkContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n entityId\n urlAlias\n shortUrl\n headline\n socialHeadline\n}\n\nfragment defaultArticleDateContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n ...hooksArticleDateUtilsContent\n}\n\nfragment defaultAuthorCardAuthor on Author {\n ...authorAvatarAuthor\n ...authorBioAuthor\n ...authorNameAuthor\n ...authorRoleAuthor\n ...entityFollowButtonBase\n ...followButtonBase\n}\n\nfragment entityFollowButtonBase on BaseWithApplicationAndUrlAlias {\n __isBaseWithApplicationAndUrlAlias: __typename\n __typename\n ... on Section {\n entityId\n name\n }\n ... on Author {\n entityId\n name\n disableFollow\n }\n ... on Topic {\n entityId\n name\n disableFollow\n }\n}\n\nfragment entityLink on BaseWithApplicationAndUrlAlias {\n __isBaseWithApplicationAndUrlAlias: __typename\n __typename\n entityId\n entityUuid\n urlAlias\n urlRedirect {\n toUrl\n id\n }\n application {\n entityId\n id\n }\n ... on Section {\n fullSectionPath {\n entityId\n id\n }\n parentSection\n }\n ...helpersAppBarVariantBase\n ...helpersApplicationBase\n ...helpersCheckIsPlusArticle\n ...helpersStyleSectionContent\n}\n\nfragment factSheetLinkPlusGenericArticleContent on Article {\n entityId\n factSheets {\n url\n name\n }\n ...helpersGetArticleTypeArticle\n}\n\nfragment followButtonBase on BaseWithApplicationAndUrlAlias {\n __isBaseWithApplicationAndUrlAlias: __typename\n ...entityFollowButtonBase\n entityId\n}\n\nfragment genericArticleArticle on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n entityId\n flag\n sections {\n value {\n entityId\n id\n }\n }\n ...articleBaseAdvertisingInfoArticle\n ...contentNewsletterWidgetContent\n ...globalCheckerContent\n ...helpersGetArticleTypeArticle\n ...hooksContentHelperContent\n ...shareArticle20Content\n}\n\nfragment genericArticleSpeechInlineWidgetGenericArticle on Article {\n entityId\n ...buttonArticleSpeechInlineWidgetGenericButtonArticle\n ...hooksShowGenericInlineWidgetByArticleArticle\n ...toolTipArticleSpeechWidgetToolTipArticle\n}\n\nfragment genericPostiesArticleContent_3o8td4 on Article {\n sections {\n value {\n name\n urlAlias\n id\n }\n }\n authors {\n name\n id\n }\n publishedDate\n additionalInfoBoxes {\n ...articleAdditionalInfoBoxArticle\n }\n ...genericPostiesArticleVocabBoxArticle\n ...blockquoteQuoteGenericPostiesArticleContent\n ...articleBaseAdvertisingInfoArticle\n ...contentBodyContent_3o8td4\n}\n\nfragment genericPostiesArticleVocabBoxArticle on Article {\n glossary {\n term\n translation\n description {\n json\n }\n }\n ...contentSchemaRenderContent\n}\n\nfragment globalCheckerContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n ...articlePaywallCheckerContent\n}\n\nfragment headerContentBookmarkArticle on Article {\n entityId\n}\n\nfragment headerContentCommentTrigger on Article {\n ...articleCommentsTriggerArticle\n}\n\nfragment headerMorningStudioArticle on Article {\n ...articleSponsorContent\n ...subheaderMorningStudioSubheaderContent\n headline\n coverDesktop: image(filter: {type: COVER}) {\n url\n }\n coverMobile: image(filter: {type: COVER_MOBILE}) {\n url\n }\n}\n\nfragment headerNewsletterArticleArticle on Article {\n headline\n ...issuesNewsletterArticleArticle\n ...breadcrumbNewsletterArticleArticle\n ...widgetNewsletterArticleArticle\n}\n\nfragment helpersAppBarVariantBase on BaseWithApplicationAndUrlAlias {\n __isBaseWithApplicationAndUrlAlias: __typename\n ...helpersCheckIsLiveArticle\n ...helpersCheckIsPlusPage\n ...helpersCheckIsPostiesArticle\n ...helpersCheckIsPostiesPage\n ...helpersCheckIsPostMagazineArticle\n ...helpersCheckIsStyleArticle\n ...helpersSectionContent\n ...helpersStyleSectionContent\n}\n\nfragment helpersApplicationBase on BaseWithApplicationAndUrlAlias {\n __isBaseWithApplicationAndUrlAlias: __typename\n ...helpersCheckIsPostiesArticle\n ...helpersCheckIsPostiesPage\n ...helpersCheckIsPlusPage\n}\n\nfragment helpersCheckArticleIsInSectionsArticle on Article {\n sections {\n value {\n entityId\n id\n }\n }\n}\n\nfragment helpersCheckArticleRenderTypeArticle on Article {\n ...helpersCheckCanShowInPlusPlatformArticle\n ...helpersCheckIsPlusArticle\n ...helpersCheckIsPostiesArticle\n ...helpersCheckIsStyleArticle\n ...helpersGetArticleTypeArticle\n}\n\nfragment helpersCheckCanShowInPlusPlatformArticle on Article {\n ...helpersCheckArticleIsInSectionsArticle\n ...helpersCheckIsPlusArticle\n ...helpersCheckIsStyleArticle\n ...helpersGetArticleTypeArticle\n ...helpersUseContentSponsorContent\n}\n\nfragment helpersCheckHasLiveTagArticle on Article {\n flattenTypeIds\n liveArticle {\n status\n id\n }\n}\n\nfragment helpersCheckIfNewsSectionInFirstIndexSection on Section {\n name\n}\n\nfragment helpersCheckIsLiveArticle on Article {\n flattenTypeIds\n liveArticle {\n status\n id\n }\n}\n\nfragment helpersCheckIsMainTopicContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n topics {\n entityId\n id\n }\n}\n\nfragment helpersCheckIsPlusArticle on Article {\n paywallTypes {\n entityUuid\n id\n }\n}\n\nfragment helpersCheckIsPlusPage on Page {\n urlAlias\n}\n\nfragment helpersCheckIsPostMagazineArticle on Article {\n sections {\n value {\n entityId\n id\n }\n }\n}\n\nfragment helpersCheckIsPostiesArticle on Article {\n sections {\n value {\n entityId\n id\n }\n }\n}\n\nfragment helpersCheckIsPostiesPage on Page {\n urlAlias\n}\n\nfragment helpersCheckIsStyleArticle on Article {\n sections {\n value {\n entityId\n id\n }\n }\n}\n\nfragment helpersGetArticleTypeArticle on Article {\n types {\n value {\n entityId\n id\n }\n }\n}\n\nfragment helpersIsArchiveWallArticle on Article {\n ...helpersIsVelocityWallArticle\n createdDate\n publishedDate\n paywallTypes {\n entityId\n id\n }\n}\n\nfragment helpersIsArticleVideoAsHeroArticle on Article {\n multimediaEmbed {\n json\n }\n}\n\nfragment helpersIsVelocityWallArticle on Article {\n paywallTypes {\n entityId\n id\n }\n}\n\nfragment helpersMassageToNewsletterItemNewsletter on Newsletter {\n entityId\n name\n alternativeName\n description {\n text\n }\n summary {\n text\n }\n homepageDescription {\n text\n }\n}\n\nfragment helpersSanitizeArticleTypeEntityIdsArticle on Article {\n types {\n value {\n entityId\n id\n }\n }\n}\n\nfragment helpersSanitizeAuthorTypesArticle on Article {\n authors {\n types\n id\n }\n}\n\nfragment helpersSanitizedAuthorEntityIdsArticle on Article {\n authors {\n entityId\n id\n }\n}\n\nfragment helpersSectionContent on Section {\n fullSectionPath {\n entityId\n id\n }\n}\n\nfragment helpersStyleSectionContent on Section {\n fullSectionPath {\n entityId\n id\n }\n}\n\nfragment helpersUseContentSponsorContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n topics {\n entityId\n sponsor {\n ...sponsorTagSponsor\n name\n type\n id\n }\n id\n }\n ... on Article {\n sponsorType\n }\n ...helpersCheckIsMainTopicContent\n}\n\nfragment helpersUseSharingUrl on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n urlAlias\n}\n\nfragment hooksArticleAcknowledgementGateOverlayArticle on Article {\n entityId\n}\n\nfragment hooksArticleDateUtilsContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n createdDate\n publishedDate\n updatedDate\n}\n\nfragment hooksArticleReactionUtilsArticle on Article {\n sections {\n value {\n entityId\n id\n }\n }\n topics {\n entityId\n id\n }\n entityId\n sponsorType\n}\n\nfragment hooksArticleSeoArticle on Article {\n ...helpersCheckIsPostiesArticle\n ...helpersCheckIsPostMagazineArticle\n ...helpersCheckIsPlusArticle\n ...hooksContentHeadlineTagContent\n entityId\n headline\n socialHeadline\n types {\n value {\n entityId\n id\n }\n }\n authors {\n entityId\n id\n }\n topics {\n sponsor {\n entityId\n id\n }\n id\n }\n sections {\n value {\n entityId\n id\n }\n }\n images {\n generic_og: style(filter: {style: \"og_image_scmp_generic\"}) {\n url\n }\n styles(filter: {styles: [\"og_image_posties_article\", \"og_postmag\", \"og_image_scmp_analysis\", \"og_image_scmp_explainer\", \"og_image_scmp_editorial\", \"og_image_scmp_fact_check\", \"og_image_scmp_debate\", \"og_image_scmp_live\", \"og_image_scmp_obituary\", \"og_image_scmp_opinion\", \"og_image_scmp_review\", \"og_image_scmp_series\", \"og_image_scmp_generic\"]}) {\n url\n style\n }\n type\n }\n disableOffPlatformContent\n published\n sponsorType\n urlAlias\n}\n\nfragment hooksContentHeadlineTagContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n ... on Article {\n types {\n value {\n name\n entityId\n description {\n text\n }\n id\n }\n }\n ...helpersCheckIsStyleArticle\n }\n flag\n sections {\n value {\n name\n id\n }\n }\n ...hooksContentHelperContent\n}\n\nfragment hooksContentHelperContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n ...helpersSanitizeArticleTypeEntityIdsArticle\n ...helpersSanitizeAuthorTypesArticle\n ...helpersSanitizedAuthorEntityIdsArticle\n flag\n}\n\nfragment hooksContentInterestArticle on Article {\n entityId\n sentiment\n urlAlias\n types {\n value {\n name\n id\n }\n }\n topics {\n name\n id\n }\n}\n\nfragment hooksContentItemProvidersContent_2aLOLQ on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n ...contentCoverImageContent_3ndUvy\n ...contentHeadlineContent\n ...contentSponsorTagContent\n ... on Video {\n __typename\n }\n}\n\nfragment hooksContentItemProvidersContent_2niEwz on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n ...contentCoverImageContent_4isNar\n ...contentHeadlineContent\n ...contentSummaryContent\n ...contentSponsorTagContent\n ...contentUpdatedDateContent\n ... on Video {\n __typename\n }\n}\n\nfragment hooksContentItemProvidersContent_3JkJ9S on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n ...contentCoverImageContent_1OCN1a\n ...contentHeadlineContent\n ...contentSponsorTagContent\n ... on Video {\n __typename\n }\n}\n\nfragment hooksContentItemProvidersContent_3n3tyT on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n ...contentCoverImageContent_D9JlW\n ...contentHeadlineContent\n ...contentSponsorTagContent\n ... on Video {\n __typename\n }\n}\n\nfragment hooksContentItemProvidersContent_3wWJWe on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n ...contentCoverImageContent_3ndUvy\n ...contentHeadlineContent\n ...contentPublishedDateContent\n ...contentSummaryContent\n ...contentSponsorTagContent\n ... on Video {\n __typename\n ...videoDurationOverlayVideo\n }\n}\n\nfragment hooksPaywallPromiseContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n entityId\n ...helpersCheckIsPostiesArticle\n}\n\nfragment hooksPostiesArticleArticle_3o8td4 on Article {\n ...genericPostiesArticleContent_3o8td4\n ...helpersGetArticleTypeArticle\n}\n\nfragment hooksSeriesArticleSectionTagArticle on Article {\n sections {\n value {\n entityId\n name\n id\n }\n }\n types {\n value {\n entityId\n id\n }\n }\n}\n\nfragment hooksShowGenericInlineWidgetByArticleArticle on Article {\n ...helpersCheckIsPostiesArticle\n ...hooksPaywallPromiseContent\n entityId\n flag\n sections {\n value {\n entityId\n id\n }\n }\n types {\n value {\n entityId\n id\n }\n }\n topics {\n entityId\n id\n }\n}\n\nfragment hooksTrackCurrentItemBase_3o8td4 on BaseWithApplicationAndUrlAlias {\n __isBaseWithApplicationAndUrlAlias: __typename\n __typename\n ...atomsCurrentArticleAtomBase_3o8td4\n ...atomsCurrentNotificationSectionAtomBase\n ...atomsCurrentTakeoverAdSectionsAtomBase\n ...atomsCurrentStyleCardCarouselWidgetSectionsAtomBase\n}\n\nfragment hooksTrackPageViewArticle on Article {\n entityId\n publishedDate\n headline\n sections {\n value {\n name\n id\n }\n }\n topics {\n name\n entityId\n id\n }\n urlAlias\n authors {\n name\n id\n }\n copyrighted\n entityUuid\n socialHeadline\n sponsor\n}\n\nfragment hooksUseCurrentArticleIdsArticle on Article {\n entityId\n entityUuid\n}\n\nfragment hooksUseNotificationReadStatusArticle on Article {\n entityId\n}\n\nfragment hooksUseNotificationsSection on Section {\n ...notificationSection\n entityId\n}\n\nfragment imageContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n headline\n ...checkersCheckContentContainsStarlingImageContent\n}\n\nfragment infographicArticleArticle on Article {\n ...globalCheckerContent\n ...landingBannerInfographicArticle\n}\n\nfragment inlineArticleSeriesInlineArticle on Article {\n entityId\n seriesContainer {\n entityId\n headline\n socialHeadline\n urlAlias\n series {\n __typename\n ... on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n entityId\n }\n ... on Node {\n __isNode: __typename\n id\n }\n }\n ...entityLink\n id\n }\n}\n\nfragment inlineWidgetContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n ...contentNewsletterWidgetContent\n}\n\nfragment issuesDropdownNewsletterArticleArticle on Article {\n entityId\n}\n\nfragment issuesNewsletterArticleArticle on Article {\n types {\n value {\n entityUuid\n id\n }\n }\n ...issuesDropdownNewsletterArticleArticle\n}\n\nfragment itemLiveArticleContentArticle on Article {\n entityId\n urlAlias\n ...articleImageGalleryContent\n ...contentSchemaRenderContent\n ...contentShareWidgetContent\n}\n\nfragment landingBannerInfographicArticle on Article {\n ...articleSponsorContent\n ...articleShareWidgetArticle\n headline\n topics {\n ...entityLink\n name\n id\n }\n images {\n title\n url\n }\n coverHero: image(filter: {type: HERO}) {\n url\n }\n}\n\nfragment liveArticleArticle on Article {\n entityId\n entityUuid\n flag\n ...articleImageGalleryContent\n ...helpersCheckHasLiveTagArticle\n ...contentLiveArticleArticle\n ...globalCheckerContent\n ...newsletterWidgetLiveArticleArticle\n ...shareArticle20Content\n ...articleBaseAdvertisingInfoArticle\n}\n\nfragment liveBlogPostingLiveArticles_2w8PNF on Query {\n article(filter: {entityId: $entityId}) {\n urlAlias\n id\n }\n liveArticle(filter: {entityUuid: $entityUuid}) {\n customTimezone\n liveContents {\n entityId\n publishedDate\n title\n body {\n text\n }\n }\n id\n }\n}\n\nfragment magazinesStyleArticleMoreOnThisContentItemContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n ...entityLink\n ...helpersCheckIsMainTopicContent\n ...hooksContentItemProvidersContent_3JkJ9S\n}\n\nfragment morningStudioArticleContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n ...globalCheckerContent\n ...headerMorningStudioArticle\n}\n\nfragment morningStudioArticleFooterContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n entityUuid\n topics {\n entityUuid\n id\n }\n}\n\nfragment newsletterArticleArticle on Article {\n ...contentNewsletterArticleArticle\n ...headerNewsletterArticleArticle\n ...issuesNewsletterArticleArticle\n ...widgetNewsletterArticleArticle\n}\n\nfragment newsletterWidgetLiveArticleArticle on Article {\n ...contentNewsletterWidgetContent\n}\n\nfragment notificationSection on Section {\n name\n}\n\nfragment onboardingNewsletterSubscriptionArticle on Article {\n sections {\n value {\n entityId\n id\n }\n }\n}\n\nfragment photoGalleryDialogContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n __typename\n ...contentShareWidgetContent\n}\n\nfragment photoGalleryWidgetContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n ...photoGalleryDialogContent\n}\n\nfragment pianoIntegrationArticle on Article {\n __typename\n contentLock\n createdDate\n entityId\n entityUuid\n headline\n publishedDate\n sponsor\n sponsorType\n urlAlias\n authors {\n name\n id\n }\n sections {\n value {\n entityUuid\n name\n id\n }\n }\n topics {\n name\n id\n }\n types {\n value {\n entityId\n name\n id\n }\n }\n ...helpersAppBarVariantBase\n ...hooksPaywallPromiseContent\n ...helpersIsArchiveWallArticle\n ...helpersIsVelocityWallArticle\n ...helpersCheckIsPostiesArticle\n ...helpersCheckIsPlusArticle\n ...helpersCheckCanShowInPlusPlatformArticle\n ...useShareContentUnlockedArticle\n}\n\nfragment plusArticleAuthorBlockArticle on Article {\n ...articleDateContent\n ...authorNamesArticle\n authors {\n entityId\n ...authorAvatarAuthor\n id\n }\n}\n\nfragment plusArticleTitleArticle on Article {\n ...hooksContentHelperContent\n ...articleTitleArticle\n ...plusArticleTypeTitleContent\n ...helpersGetArticleTypeArticle\n}\n\nfragment plusArticleTypeTitleContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n ...helpersGetArticleTypeArticle\n}\n\nfragment plusAuthorCardAuthor on Author {\n ...authorAvatarAuthor\n ...authorNameAuthor\n ...authorBioAuthor\n areaOfExpertise\n}\n\nfragment plusColumnsArticleContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n ...articleTitleArticle\n ...blockquoteQuotePlusGenericArticleContent\n ...hooksContentHelperContent\n}\n\nfragment plusGenericArticleContent on Article {\n ...blockquoteQuotePlusGenericArticleContent\n ...factSheetLinkPlusGenericArticleContent\n ...plusArticleTitleArticle\n}\n\nfragment popupArticle20ShareMenuContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n ...articleShareWidgetArticle\n}\n\nfragment scmpYoutubeContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n entityId\n urlAlias\n publishedDate\n}\n\nfragment seriesArticleArticle on Article {\n entityId\n sections {\n value {\n entityId\n id\n }\n }\n series {\n __typename\n ... on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n ...seriesPrimaryContent\n }\n ... on Node {\n __isNode: __typename\n id\n }\n }\n ...seriesBannerContent\n ...shareArticle20Content\n}\n\nfragment seriesBannerContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n ...hooksSeriesArticleSectionTagArticle\n ...entityLink\n ...hooksContentItemProvidersContent_2niEwz\n publishedDate\n}\n\nfragment seriesPrimaryContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n entityId\n urlAlias\n ...entityLink\n ...hooksContentItemProvidersContent_3wWJWe\n}\n\nfragment shareArticle20Content on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n ...popupArticle20ShareMenuContent\n}\n\nfragment sponsorTagSponsor on Sponsor {\n name\n type\n images {\n url\n }\n}\n\nfragment styleArticleAuthorBlockArticle on Article {\n createdDate\n publishedDate\n sponsorType\n firstTopic {\n sponsor {\n name\n type\n id\n }\n id\n }\n authors {\n ...authorNameAuthor\n entityId\n id\n }\n ...hooksContentHelperContent\n}\n\nfragment styleArticleContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n entityId\n ...articleImageGalleryContent\n ...articleMoreOnThisListStyleArticle\n ...globalCheckerContent\n ...styleArticleAuthorBlockArticle\n}\n\nfragment styleAuthorCardAuthor on Author {\n ...authorSocialLinksAuthor\n ...authorAvatarAuthor\n ...authorNameAuthor\n ...authorBioAuthor\n ...entityFollowButtonBase\n}\n\nfragment 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}\n}\n\nfragment articleLinkingDataContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n urlAlias\n sections {\n value {\n ...helpersCheckIfNewsSectionInFirstIndexSection\n ...entityLink\n name\n urlAlias\n urlRedirect {\n toUrl\n id\n }\n id\n }\n }\n}\n\nfragment articleListArticle_3o8td4 on Article {\n ...articleDividerArticle\n ...articleFooterArticle\n ...articlePaginationCheckerArticle\n ...articlePaginationNavigationHistoryArticle_3o8td4\n ...articleRecommendationArticle\n ...articlePaywallCheckerContent\n ...articleRenderArticle_3o8td4\n ...helpersCheckIsPostiesArticle\n ...helpersCheckIsStyleArticle\n ...contextsContentReadMoreContextProviderContent\n ...contextsArticleListContextProviderArticle\n}\n\nfragment articleMoreOnThisListArticle on Article {\n moreOnThisArticles {\n ...entityLink\n entityId\n headline\n socialHeadline\n urlAlias\n images {\n url\n style(filter: {style: \"237x147\"}) {\n url\n }\n }\n id\n }\n}\n\nfragment articleMoreOnThisListStyleArticle on Article {\n styleMoreOnThisArticles: moreOnThisArticles {\n ...entityLink\n ...magazinesStyleArticleMoreOnThisContentItemContent\n entityId\n id\n }\n}\n\nfragment articleMoreStoriesArticle on Article {\n moreOnThisArticles {\n entityId\n ...articleMoreStoriesItemArticle\n id\n }\n}\n\nfragment articleMoreStoriesItemArticle on Article {\n ...entityLink\n headline\n socialHeadline\n sections {\n value {\n name\n urlAlias\n id\n }\n }\n images {\n url\n size768x768: style(filter: {style: \"768x768\"}) {\n url\n }\n }\n}\n\nfragment articlePaginationCheckerArticle on Article {\n ...helpersCheckIsPostiesArticle\n ...helpersGetArticleTypeArticle\n}\n\nfragment articlePaginationNavigationHistoryArticle_3o8td4 on Article {\n entityId\n urlAlias\n ...hooksTrackCurrentItemBase_3o8td4\n}\n\nfragment articlePaywallCheckerContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n ...hooksPaywallPromiseContent\n}\n\nfragment articlePaywallContainerArticle on Article {\n entityId\n}\n\nfragment articlePrintArticle on Article {\n ...contentShareWidgetContent\n}\n\nfragment articlePrintHeadlineMessageArticle on Article {\n printHeadline\n}\n\nfragment articleReactionArticle on Article {\n entityId\n sections {\n value {\n name\n ...helpersCheckIfNewsSectionInFirstIndexSection\n id\n }\n }\n ...hooksArticleReactionUtilsArticle\n}\n\nfragment articleReadingTimeContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n readingTime\n}\n\nfragment articleRecommendationArticle on Article {\n ...helpersCheckIsStyleArticle\n entityId\n moreOnThisArticles {\n ...helpersCheckIsStyleArticle\n entityId\n paywallTypes {\n entityId\n id\n }\n publishedDate\n sections {\n value {\n entityId\n id\n }\n }\n types {\n value {\n entityId\n id\n }\n }\n urlAlias\n urlRedirect {\n toUrl\n id\n }\n id\n }\n}\n\nfragment articleRenderArticle_3o8td4 on Article {\n entityId\n ...articleActionWidgetArticle\n ...articleAdditionalInfoBoxArticleContent\n ...articleAuthorBlockArticle\n ...articleAuthorDetailsContent\n ...articleBaseAdvertisingInfoArticle\n ...articleBeforeYouGoTopicsContent\n ...articleBeforeYouGoWidget\n ...articleCommentsTriggerArticle\n ...articleCorrectionsWidgetArticle\n ...articleDateContent\n ...articleFurtherReadingWidgetArticle\n ...articleImageGalleryContent\n ...articleLeadingArticle\n ...articleMoreOnThisListArticle\n ...articlePaywallContainerArticle\n ...articlePrintHeadlineMessageArticle\n ...articleReactionArticle\n ...articleReadingTimeContent\n ...articleSectionsContent\n ...articleSeriesArticle\n ...articleShareWidgetArticle\n ...articleSpeechInlineWidgetArticle\n ...articleSpeechPlayerPortalArticle\n ...articleSponsorContent\n ...articleTopicContent\n ...articleTopicFollowWidgetArticle\n ...articleTopicsContent\n ...articleTopicWidgetArticle\n ...articleVocabBoxArticle\n ...authorAvatarsArticle\n ...authorNamesArticle\n ...contentBodyContent_3o8td4\n ...contentHeadlineContent\n ...contentLiveTagContent\n ...contentReadMoreButtonContent\n ...contentSchemaRenderContent\n ...contentSubHeadlineContent\n ...contentSummaryContent\n ...genericArticleArticle\n ...globalCheckerContent\n ...helpersCheckArticleRenderTypeArticle\n ...helpersGetArticleTypeArticle\n ...hooksPostiesArticleArticle_3o8td4\n ...infographicArticleArticle\n ...liveArticleArticle\n ...morningStudioArticleContent\n ...newsletterArticleArticle\n ...pianoIntegrationArticle\n ...plusColumnsArticleContent\n ...plusGenericArticleContent\n ...seriesArticleArticle\n ...styleArticleContent\n ...contentActionBarContent\n}\n\nfragment articleSchemaContent_mN6kk on Query {\n article(filter: {entityId: $entityId}) {\n ...hooksContentHeadlineTagContent\n authorLocations\n contentLock\n createdDate\n headline\n publishedDate\n socialHeadline\n sponsorType\n updatedDate\n urlAlias\n authors {\n location\n name\n types\n urlAlias\n id\n }\n body(customContents: $customContents, type: $bodyType) {\n json\n text\n }\n corrections {\n correction {\n text\n }\n timestamp\n }\n images {\n isSlideshow\n height\n width\n url\n }\n sections {\n value {\n name\n id\n }\n }\n types {\n value {\n name\n id\n }\n }\n id\n }\n ...liveBlogPostingLiveArticles_2w8PNF\n}\n\nfragment articleSectionsContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n sections {\n value {\n ...helpersCheckIfNewsSectionInFirstIndexSection\n ...entityLink\n name\n id\n }\n }\n}\n\nfragment articleSeoArticle_3o8td4 on Article {\n ...hooksArticleSeoArticle\n ...helpersCheckIsPostiesArticle\n entityId\n publishedDate\n updatedDate\n summary {\n text\n }\n subHeadline {\n text\n }\n body(customContents: $customContents, type: $bodyType) {\n text\n }\n keywords\n sections {\n value {\n name\n id\n }\n }\n topics {\n name\n entityId\n id\n }\n urlAlias\n authors {\n name\n id\n }\n images {\n style(filter: {style: \"768x768\"}) {\n url\n }\n }\n}\n\nfragment articleSeriesArticle on Article {\n seriesContainer {\n entityId\n id\n }\n ...inlineArticleSeriesInlineArticle\n ...carouselArticleSeriesCarouselArticle\n}\n\nfragment articleSeriesCarouselContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n entityId\n ... on Article {\n seriesContainer {\n series {\n __typename\n ... on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n entityId\n }\n ... on Node {\n __isNode: __typename\n id\n }\n }\n id\n }\n }\n ...entityLink\n ...hooksContentItemProvidersContent_3n3tyT\n}\n\nfragment articleShareWidgetArticle on Article {\n ...contentShareWidgetContent\n ...articleCommentsTriggerArticle\n ...articleSpeechInlineWidgetArticle\n}\n\nfragment articleSpeechInlineWidgetArticle on Article {\n entityId\n ...genericArticleSpeechInlineWidgetGenericArticle\n}\n\nfragment articleSpeechPlayerPortalArticle on Article {\n entityId\n ...articleSpeechInlineWidgetArticle\n}\n\nfragment articleSponsorContent on Article {\n topics {\n entityId\n sponsor {\n description {\n json\n }\n ...sponsorTagSponsor\n id\n }\n id\n }\n ...helpersUseContentSponsorContent\n ...helpersCheckIsMainTopicContent\n ...contentSchemaRenderContent\n}\n\nfragment articleTitleArticle on Article {\n types {\n value {\n name\n id\n }\n }\n authors {\n name\n id\n }\n}\n\nfragment articleTopicContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n topics {\n ...topicLinkTopic\n id\n }\n}\n\nfragment articleTopicFollowWidgetArticle on Article {\n topics {\n ...topicLinkTopic\n ...entityFollowButtonBase\n disableFollow\n entityId\n name\n entityUuid\n id\n }\n}\n\nfragment articleTopicWidgetArticle on Article {\n entityId\n sponsorType\n firstTopic {\n ...entityLink\n ...followButtonBase\n name\n disableFollow\n contents(first: 4, orderBy: {field: PUBLISHED_DATE, direction: DESC}) {\n edges {\n node {\n __typename\n entityId\n ...articleWidgetContent\n id\n }\n }\n }\n id\n }\n}\n\nfragment articleTopicsContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n topics {\n ...topicLinkTopic\n ...entityFollowButtonBase\n entityId\n entityUuid\n name\n id\n }\n}\n\nfragment articleVocabBoxArticle on Article {\n glossary {\n term\n translation\n description {\n json\n }\n }\n ...contentSchemaRenderContent\n}\n\nfragment articleWidgetContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n entityId\n urlAlias\n ... on Article {\n sponsorType\n }\n ...entityLink\n ...hooksContentItemProvidersContent_2aLOLQ\n}\n\nfragment atomsCurrentArticleAtomBase_3o8td4 on BaseWithApplicationAndUrlAlias {\n __isBaseWithApplicationAndUrlAlias: __typename\n __typename\n ... on Article {\n ...articleSeoArticle_3o8td4\n ...contentShareWidgetContent\n ...headerContentBookmarkArticle\n ...headerContentCommentTrigger\n ...helpersCheckIsStyleArticle\n ...helpersUseSharingUrl\n ...articleShareWidgetArticle\n ...hooksTrackPageViewArticle\n ...hooksContentInterestArticle\n ...hooksUseCurrentArticleIdsArticle\n ...hooksUseNotificationReadStatusArticle\n ...onboardingNewsletterSubscriptionArticle\n }\n}\n\nfragment atomsCurrentNotificationSectionAtomBase on BaseWithApplicationAndUrlAlias {\n __isBaseWithApplicationAndUrlAlias: __typename\n __typename\n ... on Section {\n fullSectionPath {\n ...hooksUseNotificationsSection\n id\n }\n }\n ... on Article {\n sections {\n value {\n ...hooksUseNotificationsSection\n id\n }\n }\n }\n}\n\nfragment atomsCurrentStyleCardCarouselWidgetSectionsAtomBase on BaseWithApplicationAndUrlAlias {\n __isBaseWithApplicationAndUrlAlias: __typename\n __typename\n ... on Article {\n sections {\n value {\n entityId\n name\n id\n }\n }\n }\n ... on Section {\n fullSectionPath {\n entityId\n name\n id\n }\n }\n}\n\nfragment atomsCurrentTakeoverAdSectionsAtomBase on BaseWithApplicationAndUrlAlias {\n __isBaseWithApplicationAndUrlAlias: __typename\n __typename\n ... on Article {\n sections {\n value {\n entityId\n id\n }\n }\n }\n ... on Section {\n fullSectionPath {\n entityId\n id\n }\n }\n}\n\nfragment authorAvatarAuthor on Author {\n ...entityLink\n entityId\n entityUuid\n name\n types\n image(filter: {type: AUTHOR_IMAGE}) {\n style(filter: {style: \"300x300\"}) {\n url\n }\n }\n}\n\nfragment authorAvatarsArticle on Article {\n authors {\n entityId\n ...authorAvatarAuthor\n ...entityFollowButtonBase\n id\n }\n}\n\nfragment authorBioAuthor on Author {\n bio\n}\n\nfragment authorCardAuthor on Author {\n ...styleAuthorCardAuthor\n ...defaultAuthorCardAuthor\n ...plusAuthorCardAuthor\n}\n\nfragment authorNameAuthor on Author {\n ...entityLink\n name\n entityUuid\n}\n\nfragment authorNamesArticle on Article {\n authorLocations\n authors {\n entityId\n location\n ...authorNameAuthor\n id\n }\n}\n\nfragment authorRoleAuthor on Author {\n role {\n text\n }\n}\n\nfragment authorSocialLinksAuthor on Author {\n socialLinks {\n class\n title\n url\n }\n}\n\nfragment beforeYouGoActionWidgetContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n ...shareArticle20Content\n ...articleShareWidgetArticle\n entityId\n urlAlias\n shortUrl\n headline\n socialHeadline\n}\n\nfragment blockquoteQuoteContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n ...contentShareWidgetContent\n}\n\nfragment blockquoteQuoteGenericPostiesArticleContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n ...contentShareWidgetContent\n}\n\nfragment blockquoteQuotePlusGenericArticleContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n ...contentShareWidgetContent\n}\n\nfragment breadcrumbNewsletterArticleArticle on Article {\n types {\n value {\n name\n id\n }\n }\n}\n\nfragment buttonArticleSpeechInlineWidgetGenericButtonArticle on Article {\n entityId\n socialHeadline\n headline\n}\n\nfragment carouselArticleSeriesCarouselArticle on Article {\n entityId\n seriesContainer {\n entityId\n headline\n socialHeadline\n urlAlias\n series {\n __typename\n ... on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n entityId\n urlAlias\n ...articleSeriesCarouselContent\n }\n ... on Node {\n __isNode: __typename\n id\n }\n }\n ...entityLink\n id\n }\n}\n\nfragment checkersCheckContentContainsStarlingImageContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n topics {\n entityId\n id\n }\n}\n\nfragment contentActionBarContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n entityId\n createdDate\n updatedDate\n publishedDate\n ...articleCommentArticle\n ... on Article {\n hasVideoContent\n }\n}\n\nfragment contentBodyContent_3o8td4 on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n entityId\n body(customContents: $customContents, type: $bodyType) {\n json\n }\n ...contentSchemaRenderContent\n}\n\nfragment contentCoverImageContent_1OCN1a on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n images {\n url\n title\n type\n size768x768: style(filter: {style: \"768x768\"}) {\n url\n }\n }\n}\n\nfragment contentCoverImageContent_3ndUvy on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n images {\n url\n title\n type\n size540x360: style(filter: {style: \"540x360\"}) {\n url\n }\n }\n}\n\nfragment contentCoverImageContent_4isNar on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n images {\n url\n title\n type\n landscape250x99: style(filter: {style: \"landscape_250_99\"}) {\n url\n }\n size540x360: style(filter: {style: \"540x360\"}) {\n url\n }\n }\n}\n\nfragment contentCoverImageContent_D9JlW on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n images {\n url\n title\n type\n size80x80: style(filter: {style: \"80x80\"}) {\n url\n }\n }\n}\n\nfragment contentCoverVideoContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n ... on Article {\n multimediaEmbed {\n json\n }\n ...contentSchemaRenderContent\n }\n}\n\nfragment contentHeadlineContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n headline\n socialHeadline\n ...contentHeadlineTagContent\n ...helpersUseContentSponsorContent\n}\n\nfragment contentHeadlineTagContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n ...hooksContentHeadlineTagContent\n}\n\nfragment contentLiveArticleArticle on Article {\n ...itemLiveArticleContentArticle\n}\n\nfragment contentLiveTagContent on Article {\n ...helpersCheckHasLiveTagArticle\n}\n\nfragment contentNewsletterArticleArticle on Article {\n entityId\n relatedLinks\n}\n\nfragment contentNewsletterWidgetContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n topics {\n relatedNewsletters {\n ...helpersMassageToNewsletterItemNewsletter\n id\n }\n id\n }\n sections {\n value {\n relatedNewsletters {\n ...helpersMassageToNewsletterItemNewsletter\n id\n }\n id\n }\n }\n ... on Article {\n relatedNewsletters {\n ...helpersMassageToNewsletterItemNewsletter\n id\n }\n }\n}\n\nfragment contentPublishedDateContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n publishedDate\n}\n\nfragment contentReadMoreButtonContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n ...appButtonContent\n}\n\nfragment contentSchemaRenderContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n ...blockquoteQuoteContent\n ...imageContent\n ...inlineWidgetContent\n ...photoGalleryWidgetContent\n ...scmpYoutubeContent\n}\n\nfragment contentShareWidgetContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n entityId\n urlAlias\n shortUrl\n socialHeadline\n headline\n}\n\nfragment contentSponsorTagContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n ...helpersUseContentSponsorContent\n}\n\nfragment contentSubHeadlineContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n subHeadline {\n json\n }\n summary {\n json\n }\n ...contentSchemaRenderContent\n}\n\nfragment contentSummaryContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n __typename\n summary {\n text\n }\n}\n\nfragment contentUpdatedDateContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n updatedDate\n}\n\nfragment contextsArticleListContextProviderArticle on Article {\n entityId\n}\n\nfragment contextsContentReadMoreContextProviderContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n ...helpersGetArticleTypeArticle\n ...helpersCheckIsStyleArticle\n ... on Article {\n sponsorType\n }\n}\n\nfragment copyLinkArticle20CopyLinkContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n entityId\n urlAlias\n shortUrl\n headline\n socialHeadline\n}\n\nfragment defaultArticleDateContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n ...hooksArticleDateUtilsContent\n}\n\nfragment defaultAuthorCardAuthor on Author {\n ...authorAvatarAuthor\n ...authorBioAuthor\n ...authorNameAuthor\n ...authorRoleAuthor\n ...entityFollowButtonBase\n ...followButtonBase\n}\n\nfragment entityFollowButtonBase on BaseWithApplicationAndUrlAlias {\n __isBaseWithApplicationAndUrlAlias: __typename\n __typename\n ... on Section {\n entityId\n name\n }\n ... on Author {\n entityId\n name\n disableFollow\n }\n ... on Topic {\n entityId\n name\n disableFollow\n }\n}\n\nfragment entityLink on BaseWithApplicationAndUrlAlias {\n __isBaseWithApplicationAndUrlAlias: __typename\n __typename\n entityId\n entityUuid\n urlAlias\n urlRedirect {\n toUrl\n id\n }\n application {\n entityId\n id\n }\n ... on Section {\n fullSectionPath {\n entityId\n id\n }\n parentSection\n }\n ...helpersAppBarVariantBase\n ...helpersApplicationBase\n ...helpersCheckIsPlusArticle\n ...helpersStyleSectionContent\n}\n\nfragment factSheetLinkPlusGenericArticleContent on Article {\n entityId\n factSheets {\n url\n name\n }\n ...helpersGetArticleTypeArticle\n}\n\nfragment followButtonBase on BaseWithApplicationAndUrlAlias {\n __isBaseWithApplicationAndUrlAlias: __typename\n ...entityFollowButtonBase\n entityId\n}\n\nfragment genericArticleArticle on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n entityId\n flag\n sections {\n value {\n entityId\n id\n }\n }\n ...articleBaseAdvertisingInfoArticle\n ...contentNewsletterWidgetContent\n ...globalCheckerContent\n ...helpersGetArticleTypeArticle\n ...hooksContentHelperContent\n ...shareArticle20Content\n}\n\nfragment genericArticleSpeechInlineWidgetGenericArticle on Article {\n entityId\n ...buttonArticleSpeechInlineWidgetGenericButtonArticle\n ...hooksShowGenericInlineWidgetByArticleArticle\n ...toolTipArticleSpeechWidgetToolTipArticle\n}\n\nfragment genericPostiesArticleContent_3o8td4 on Article {\n sections {\n value {\n name\n urlAlias\n id\n }\n }\n authors {\n name\n id\n }\n publishedDate\n additionalInfoBoxes {\n ...articleAdditionalInfoBoxArticle\n }\n ...genericPostiesArticleVocabBoxArticle\n ...blockquoteQuoteGenericPostiesArticleContent\n ...articleBaseAdvertisingInfoArticle\n ...contentBodyContent_3o8td4\n}\n\nfragment genericPostiesArticleVocabBoxArticle on Article {\n glossary {\n term\n translation\n description {\n json\n }\n }\n ...contentSchemaRenderContent\n}\n\nfragment globalCheckerContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n ...articlePaywallCheckerContent\n}\n\nfragment headerContentBookmarkArticle on Article {\n entityId\n}\n\nfragment headerContentCommentTrigger on Article {\n ...articleCommentsTriggerArticle\n}\n\nfragment headerMorningStudioArticle on Article {\n ...articleSponsorContent\n ...subheaderMorningStudioSubheaderContent\n headline\n coverDesktop: image(filter: {type: COVER}) {\n url\n }\n coverMobile: image(filter: {type: COVER_MOBILE}) {\n url\n }\n}\n\nfragment headerNewsletterArticleArticle on Article {\n headline\n ...issuesNewsletterArticleArticle\n ...breadcrumbNewsletterArticleArticle\n ...widgetNewsletterArticleArticle\n}\n\nfragment helpersAppBarVariantBase on BaseWithApplicationAndUrlAlias {\n __isBaseWithApplicationAndUrlAlias: __typename\n ...helpersCheckIsLiveArticle\n ...helpersCheckIsPlusPage\n ...helpersCheckIsPostiesArticle\n ...helpersCheckIsPostiesPage\n ...helpersCheckIsPostMagazineArticle\n ...helpersCheckIsStyleArticle\n ...helpersSectionContent\n ...helpersStyleSectionContent\n}\n\nfragment helpersApplicationBase on BaseWithApplicationAndUrlAlias {\n __isBaseWithApplicationAndUrlAlias: __typename\n ...helpersCheckIsPostiesArticle\n ...helpersCheckIsPostiesPage\n ...helpersCheckIsPlusPage\n}\n\nfragment helpersCheckArticleIsInSectionsArticle on Article {\n sections {\n value {\n entityId\n id\n }\n }\n}\n\nfragment helpersCheckArticleRenderTypeArticle on Article {\n ...helpersCheckCanShowInPlusPlatformArticle\n ...helpersCheckIsPlusArticle\n ...helpersCheckIsPostiesArticle\n ...helpersCheckIsStyleArticle\n ...helpersGetArticleTypeArticle\n}\n\nfragment helpersCheckCanShowInPlusPlatformArticle on Article {\n ...helpersCheckArticleIsInSectionsArticle\n ...helpersCheckIsPlusArticle\n ...helpersCheckIsStyleArticle\n ...helpersGetArticleTypeArticle\n ...helpersUseContentSponsorContent\n}\n\nfragment helpersCheckHasLiveTagArticle on Article {\n flattenTypeIds\n liveArticle {\n status\n id\n }\n}\n\nfragment helpersCheckIfNewsSectionInFirstIndexSection on Section {\n name\n}\n\nfragment helpersCheckIsLiveArticle on Article {\n flattenTypeIds\n liveArticle {\n status\n id\n }\n}\n\nfragment helpersCheckIsMainTopicContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n topics {\n entityId\n id\n }\n}\n\nfragment helpersCheckIsPlusArticle on Article {\n paywallTypes {\n entityUuid\n id\n }\n}\n\nfragment helpersCheckIsPlusPage on Page {\n urlAlias\n}\n\nfragment helpersCheckIsPostMagazineArticle on Article {\n sections {\n value {\n entityId\n id\n }\n }\n}\n\nfragment helpersCheckIsPostiesArticle on Article {\n sections {\n value {\n entityId\n id\n }\n }\n}\n\nfragment helpersCheckIsPostiesPage on Page {\n urlAlias\n}\n\nfragment helpersCheckIsStyleArticle on Article {\n sections {\n value {\n entityId\n id\n }\n }\n}\n\nfragment helpersGetArticleTypeArticle on Article {\n types {\n value {\n entityId\n id\n }\n }\n}\n\nfragment helpersIsArchiveWallArticle on Article {\n ...helpersIsVelocityWallArticle\n createdDate\n publishedDate\n paywallTypes {\n entityId\n id\n }\n}\n\nfragment helpersIsArticleVideoAsHeroArticle on Article {\n multimediaEmbed {\n json\n }\n}\n\nfragment helpersIsVelocityWallArticle on Article {\n paywallTypes {\n entityId\n id\n }\n}\n\nfragment helpersMassageToNewsletterItemNewsletter on Newsletter {\n entityId\n name\n alternativeName\n description {\n text\n }\n summary {\n text\n }\n homepageDescription {\n text\n }\n}\n\nfragment helpersSanitizeArticleTypeEntityIdsArticle on Article {\n types {\n value {\n entityId\n id\n }\n }\n}\n\nfragment helpersSanitizeAuthorTypesArticle on Article {\n authors {\n types\n id\n }\n}\n\nfragment helpersSanitizedAuthorEntityIdsArticle on Article {\n authors {\n entityId\n id\n }\n}\n\nfragment helpersSectionContent on Section {\n fullSectionPath {\n entityId\n id\n }\n}\n\nfragment helpersStyleSectionContent on Section {\n fullSectionPath {\n entityId\n id\n }\n}\n\nfragment helpersUseContentSponsorContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n topics {\n entityId\n sponsor {\n ...sponsorTagSponsor\n name\n type\n id\n }\n id\n }\n ... on Article {\n sponsorType\n }\n ...helpersCheckIsMainTopicContent\n}\n\nfragment helpersUseSharingUrl on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n urlAlias\n}\n\nfragment hooksArticleAcknowledgementGateOverlayArticle on Article {\n entityId\n}\n\nfragment hooksArticleDateUtilsContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n createdDate\n publishedDate\n updatedDate\n}\n\nfragment hooksArticleReactionUtilsArticle on Article {\n sections {\n value {\n entityId\n id\n }\n }\n topics {\n entityId\n id\n }\n entityId\n sponsorType\n}\n\nfragment hooksArticleSeoArticle on Article {\n ...helpersCheckIsPostiesArticle\n ...helpersCheckIsPostMagazineArticle\n ...helpersCheckIsPlusArticle\n ...hooksContentHeadlineTagContent\n entityId\n headline\n socialHeadline\n types {\n value {\n entityId\n id\n }\n }\n authors {\n entityId\n id\n }\n topics {\n sponsor {\n entityId\n id\n }\n id\n }\n sections {\n value {\n entityId\n id\n }\n }\n images {\n generic_og: style(filter: {style: \"og_image_scmp_generic\"}) {\n url\n }\n styles(filter: {styles: [\"og_image_posties_article\", \"og_postmag\", \"og_image_scmp_analysis\", \"og_image_scmp_explainer\", \"og_image_scmp_editorial\", \"og_image_scmp_fact_check\", \"og_image_scmp_debate\", \"og_image_scmp_live\", \"og_image_scmp_obituary\", \"og_image_scmp_opinion\", \"og_image_scmp_review\", \"og_image_scmp_series\", \"og_image_scmp_generic\"]}) {\n url\n style\n }\n type\n }\n disableOffPlatformContent\n published\n sponsorType\n urlAlias\n}\n\nfragment hooksContentHeadlineTagContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n ... on Article {\n types {\n value {\n name\n entityId\n description {\n text\n }\n id\n }\n }\n ...helpersCheckIsStyleArticle\n }\n flag\n sections {\n value {\n name\n id\n }\n }\n ...hooksContentHelperContent\n}\n\nfragment hooksContentHelperContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n ...helpersSanitizeArticleTypeEntityIdsArticle\n ...helpersSanitizeAuthorTypesArticle\n ...helpersSanitizedAuthorEntityIdsArticle\n flag\n}\n\nfragment hooksContentInterestArticle on Article {\n entityId\n sentiment\n urlAlias\n types {\n value {\n name\n id\n }\n }\n topics {\n name\n id\n }\n}\n\nfragment hooksContentItemProvidersContent_2aLOLQ on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n ...contentCoverImageContent_3ndUvy\n ...contentHeadlineContent\n ...contentSponsorTagContent\n ... on Video {\n __typename\n }\n}\n\nfragment hooksContentItemProvidersContent_2niEwz on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n 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Expectation management","images":[{"generic_og":{"url":"https://cdn.i-scmp.com/sites/default/files/styles/og_image_scmp_generic/public/d8/images/canvas/2024/11/07/3300c9a6-75d9-4506-b6c1-0af42fd38a1c_2ebb98ea.jpg?itok=r9uwTzaY\u0026v=1730966897"},"styles":[{"url":"https://cdn.i-scmp.com/sites/default/files/styles/og_image_posties_article/public/d8/images/canvas/2024/11/07/3300c9a6-75d9-4506-b6c1-0af42fd38a1c_2ebb98ea.jpg?itok=tpuenGkW\u0026v=1730966897","style":"og_image_posties_article"},{"url":"https://cdn.i-scmp.com/sites/default/files/styles/og_postmag/public/d8/images/canvas/2024/11/07/3300c9a6-75d9-4506-b6c1-0af42fd38a1c_2ebb98ea.jpg?itok=961HZvaM\u0026v=1730966897","style":"og_postmag"},{"url":"https://cdn.i-scmp.com/sites/default/files/styles/og_image_scmp_analysis/public/d8/images/canvas/2024/11/07/3300c9a6-75d9-4506-b6c1-0af42fd38a1c_2ebb98ea.jpg?itok=fvdv9oCD\u0026v=1730966897","style":"og_image_scmp_analysis"},{"url":"https://cdn.i-scmp.com/sites/default/files/styles/og_image_scmp_explainer/public/d8/images/canvas/2024/11/07/3300c9a6-75d9-4506-b6c1-0af42fd38a1c_2ebb98ea.jpg?itok=SdtohM0R\u0026v=1730966897","style":"og_image_scmp_explainer"},{"url":"https://cdn.i-scmp.com/sites/default/files/styles/og_image_scmp_editorial/public/d8/images/canvas/2024/11/07/3300c9a6-75d9-4506-b6c1-0af42fd38a1c_2ebb98ea.jpg?itok=56hJVRvG\u0026v=1730966897","style":"og_image_scmp_editorial"},{"url":"https://cdn.i-scmp.com/sites/default/files/styles/og_image_scmp_fact_check/public/d8/images/canvas/2024/11/07/3300c9a6-75d9-4506-b6c1-0af42fd38a1c_2ebb98ea.jpg?itok=C8mk8WUO\u0026v=1730966897","style":"og_image_scmp_fact_check"},{"url":"https://cdn.i-scmp.com/sites/default/files/styles/og_image_scmp_debate/public/d8/images/canvas/2024/11/07/3300c9a6-75d9-4506-b6c1-0af42fd38a1c_2ebb98ea.jpg?itok=2RtYLdmy\u0026v=1730966897","style":"og_image_scmp_debate"},{"url":"https://cdn.i-scmp.com/sites/default/files/styles/og_image_scmp_live/public/d8/images/canvas/2024/11/07/3300c9a6-75d9-4506-b6c1-0af42fd38a1c_2ebb98ea.jpg?itok=t_l4bWyb\u0026v=1730966897","style":"og_image_scmp_live"},{"url":"https://cdn.i-scmp.com/sites/default/files/styles/og_image_scmp_obituary/public/d8/images/canvas/2024/11/07/3300c9a6-75d9-4506-b6c1-0af42fd38a1c_2ebb98ea.jpg?itok=I2xut1Kn\u0026v=1730966897","style":"og_image_scmp_obituary"},{"url":"https://cdn.i-scmp.com/sites/default/files/styles/og_image_scmp_opinion/public/d8/images/canvas/2024/11/07/3300c9a6-75d9-4506-b6c1-0af42fd38a1c_2ebb98ea.jpg?itok=mwLbv8f0\u0026v=1730966897","style":"og_image_scmp_opinion"},{"url":"https://cdn.i-scmp.com/sites/default/files/styles/og_image_scmp_review/public/d8/images/canvas/2024/11/07/3300c9a6-75d9-4506-b6c1-0af42fd38a1c_2ebb98ea.jpg?itok=bza_Qk_j\u0026v=1730966897","style":"og_image_scmp_review"},{"url":"https://cdn.i-scmp.com/sites/default/files/styles/og_image_scmp_series/public/d8/images/canvas/2024/11/07/3300c9a6-75d9-4506-b6c1-0af42fd38a1c_2ebb98ea.jpg?itok=hGCruOx1\u0026v=1730966897","style":"og_image_scmp_series"},{"url":"https://cdn.i-scmp.com/sites/default/files/styles/og_image_scmp_generic/public/d8/images/canvas/2024/11/07/3300c9a6-75d9-4506-b6c1-0af42fd38a1c_2ebb98ea.jpg?itok=r9uwTzaY\u0026v=1730966897","style":"og_image_scmp_generic"}],"type":"leading","style":{"url":"https://cdn.i-scmp.com/sites/default/files/styles/768x768/public/d8/images/canvas/2024/11/07/3300c9a6-75d9-4506-b6c1-0af42fd38a1c_2ebb98ea.jpg?itok=q6zuzK3C\u0026v=1730966897"},"title":"People pass by a display board showing Chinese stock market movements on November 6, in Beijing, during the US presidential election. Photo: AP","url":"https://cdn.i-scmp.com/sites/default/files/d8/images/canvas/2024/11/07/3300c9a6-75d9-4506-b6c1-0af42fd38a1c_2ebb98ea.jpg","isSlideshow":true,"sizeLandscape250x99":{"url":"https://cdn.i-scmp.com/sites/default/files/styles/landscape_250_99/public/d8/images/canvas/2024/11/07/3300c9a6-75d9-4506-b6c1-0af42fd38a1c_2ebb98ea.jpg?itok=BZ0bWrkZ\u0026v=1730966897"},"size1280x720":{"url":"https://cdn.i-scmp.com/sites/default/files/styles/wide_landscape/public/d8/images/canvas/2024/11/07/3300c9a6-75d9-4506-b6c1-0af42fd38a1c_2ebb98ea.jpg?itok=j2PKSSVU\u0026v=1730966897"},"size1200x800":{"url":"https://cdn.i-scmp.com/sites/default/files/styles/1200x800/public/d8/images/canvas/2024/11/07/3300c9a6-75d9-4506-b6c1-0af42fd38a1c_2ebb98ea.jpg?itok=Lj07DaWi\u0026v=1730966897"},"size1020x680":{"url":"https://cdn.i-scmp.com/sites/default/files/styles/1020x680/public/d8/images/canvas/2024/11/07/3300c9a6-75d9-4506-b6c1-0af42fd38a1c_2ebb98ea.jpg?itok=x_edYNFa\u0026v=1730966897"},"size768x768":{"url":"https://cdn.i-scmp.com/sites/default/files/styles/768x768/public/d8/images/canvas/2024/11/07/3300c9a6-75d9-4506-b6c1-0af42fd38a1c_2ebb98ea.jpg?itok=q6zuzK3C\u0026v=1730966897"},"landscape250x99":{"url":"https://cdn.i-scmp.com/sites/default/files/styles/landscape_250_99/public/d8/images/canvas/2024/11/07/3300c9a6-75d9-4506-b6c1-0af42fd38a1c_2ebb98ea.jpg?itok=BZ0bWrkZ\u0026v=1730966897"},"size540x360":{"url":"https://cdn.i-scmp.com/sites/default/files/styles/540x360/public/d8/images/canvas/2024/11/07/3300c9a6-75d9-4506-b6c1-0af42fd38a1c_2ebb98ea.jpg?itok=S3szGdQG\u0026v=1730966897"},"height":2730,"width":4095}],"disableOffPlatformContent":[],"published":true,"sponsorType":null,"publishedDate":1730982607000,"updatedDate":1730985813000,"summary":{"text":"As Beijing prioritises stability and development over reflation, investors must reconcile themselves to the realities of Chinese policymaking.\n","json":[{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"As Beijing prioritises stability and development over reflation, investors must reconcile themselves to the realities of Chinese policymaking."}]}]},"subHeadline":{"text":"As Beijing prioritises stability and development over reflation, investors must reconcile themselves to the realities of Chinese policymaking\n","json":[{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"As Beijing prioritises stability and development over reflation, investors must reconcile themselves to the realities of Chinese policymaking"}]}]},"body":{"text":"There are plenty of sceptics and critics when it comes to China’s latest stimulus package. But even the naysayers admit Beijing has changed the calculus for the performance of Chinese stocks. Before the bevy of measures were announced in late September, the odds of a durable rally were slim to none.\nFast forward to today and the outlook for Chinese equities is no longer a one-way bet. Morgan Stanley believes a policy pivot has occurred but asks whether it is “sufficient to deliver an exit from deflation”. The company sees a “wide range of potential outcomes” for Chinese and other Asian stock markets.\nTo be sure, the uncertainty stems from several factors. The stunning victory of Donald Trump in the US presidential election has provided impetus to the rally in the dollar, driven bond yields higher and set the stage for more punitive tariffs on imported goods. With Trump enjoying a much stronger mandate than when he was elected in 2016, more nationalist and protectionist policies that stoke inflation are in store.\nThe most important determinant of sentiment towards China, however, is the much-anticipated yet contentious fiscal component of the stimulus package.\nBy announcing a series of aggressive measures to recapitalise banks, refinance local government debt and buy unsold houses to reduce inventory, Beijing unleashed a torrent of speculation over the scale of the fiscal stimulus in the coming years.\nThe lack of clarity over the size and composition of the package has resulted in a dangerous mismatch between the expectations of investors and Beijing’s priorities.\n\n\nAs markets await the details of the plan, due to be approved at the end of the conclave of the National People’s Congress (NPC) Standing Committee on November 8, magic numbers are being bandied around by Wall Street banks. Morgan Stanley believes a 10 trillion yuan (US$1.4 trillion) fiscal stimulus, amounting to about 5 per cent of China’s economic output, over a two-year period targeting consumers is one of the preconditions for ending deflation.\nThis is wishful thinking, mainly because Beijing’s objective is stabilisation as opposed to reflation, but also because local government debt restructuring is the main plank of the fiscal expansion. It also shows that the biggest challenge facing Chinese policymakers is managing expectations.\nEven before Beijing fires its fiscal bazooka, there are signs the more forceful response is having a positive impact on the real economy. A gauge of private services sector activity experienced its sharpest monthly rise since March last year. Manufacturing output is expanding again while new home sales have risen sharply over the past several weeks, exceeding 2021-23 levels.\nThis adds to the uncertainty over how aggressive Beijing should be on the fiscal front. It also suggests a bolder and more clearly communicated policy package would have injected more confidence into the economy. By going big at the outset, policymakers would have got more bang for their buck, potentially without having to deploy as much stimulus. It is now more difficult and costly to exceed investors’ expectations.\n\n\nHowever, the fundamental reason the dissonance between policymakers and markets is likely to persist is the scale of the structural, economic and geopolitical challenges facing China in the coming years, amplified by Trump’s resounding victory.\nFirst, there are significant constraints on the size and effectiveness of any fiscal stimulus programme. As Goldman Sachs notes, the downturn in the property sector and related industries – which still account for nearly 20 per cent of economic activity – and the weakness of household consumption are likely to result in “policy transmission” being “less efficient than [in] previous easing cycles”.\nIn addition to weak household income growth, persistent deflationary pressures have depressed corporate revenues, resulting in a sharp decline in tax revenues. This does not only limit the scope for fiscal stimulus, but also keeps the stock market under pressure. Except for the financial sector, corporate earnings fell at a steeper pace last quarter.\nSecond, Beijing is focused on “high-quality development”, whereby investments in high-end manufacturing plug the demand gap left by property-related sectors. The prioritisation of investment over consumption is something markets are struggling to come to terms with because it prolongs weak domestic demand and fans fears of China turning into 1990s Japan.\n\n\nChina’s bond market warrants close attention. The yield on China’s 30-year bond is on the cusp of converging with Japan’s. That says more about deflationary conditions in China than it does about the return of inflation in Japan. The most reliable gauge of the effectiveness of China’s stimulus package is the benchmark 10-year bond yield which has barely budged since the policy shift in late September.\nThird, the approval of the package of fiscal measures by the NPC Standing Committee is not the final word on stimulus. Trump’s victory puts more pressure on Beijing to bolster its defences against the threat of much steeper tariffs. Nomura believes the fiscal stimulus will be 10-20 per cent bigger with Trump back in the White House.\nHowever, this suggests boosting domestic demand will be the main weapon against higher tariffs. Investors banking on more consumption stimulus due to Trump’s victory will be disappointed. Robin Brooks of the Brookings Institution recently tweeted that “China has only one option in response to tariffs: allow the [yuan] to fall hard and fast”. He also tweeted: “Markets should stop chasing China stimulus.”\nBeijing is partly to blame for raising expectations. But investors need to reconcile themselves to the geopolitical and economic realities of Chinese policymaking.\n","json":[{"type":"track-viewed-percentage","attribs":{"percentage":"0"}},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"There are plenty of sceptics and critics when it comes to China’s "},{"type":"a","attribs":{"href":"https://www.scmp.com/economy/policy/article/3279756/7-takeaways-chinas-most-significant-stimulus-package-pandemic?module=inline\u0026pgtype=article","title":"","target":"_self","data-entity-uuid":"c1934666-7e81-4b73-a409-ef6ffe212273","data-entity-type":"node","data-entity-bundle":"article"},"children":[{"type":"text","data":"latest stimulus package"}]},{"type":"text","data":". But even the naysayers admit Beijing has changed the calculus for the performance of Chinese stocks. Before the bevy of measures were announced in late September, the odds of a durable rally were slim to none."}]},{"type":"inline-ad-slot","attribs":{"tag":"0"}},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"Fast forward to today and the outlook for Chinese equities is no longer a one-way bet. Morgan Stanley believes a policy pivot has occurred but asks whether it is “sufficient to deliver an exit from deflation”. The company sees a “wide range of potential outcomes” for Chinese and other Asian stock markets."}]},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"To be sure, the uncertainty stems from several factors. The stunning victory of "},{"type":"a","attribs":{"href":"https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3285460/its-trump-taut-race-ends-former-president-returning-white-house","title":"","target":"_self","data-entity-uuid":"055affef-0ee0-44a0-bb66-5aba13244826","data-entity-type":"node","data-entity-bundle":"article"},"children":[{"type":"text","data":"Donald Trump"}]},{"type":"text","data":" in the "},{"type":"a","attribs":{"href":"https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/series/3281928/us-elections-2024-what-you-need-know?module=inline\u0026pgtype=article","title":"","target":"_self","data-entity-uuid":"703ff9fb-fb4b-4124-aa40-b8a1649e1276","data-entity-type":"node","data-entity-bundle":"article"},"children":[{"type":"text","data":"US presidential election"}]},{"type":"text","data":" has provided impetus to the rally in the dollar, driven bond yields higher and set the stage for more "},{"type":"a","attribs":{"href":"https://www.scmp.com/economy/global-economy/article/3264718/trumps-proposed-china-import-tariffs-would-hit-average-americans-us1700-tax-increase-researchers?module=inline\u0026pgtype=article","title":"","target":"_self","data-entity-uuid":"f977d565-1aa7-4165-b7e7-4467f6982273","data-entity-type":"node","data-entity-bundle":"article"},"children":[{"type":"text","data":"punitive tariffs"}]},{"type":"text","data":" on imported goods. With Trump enjoying a much stronger mandate than when he was elected in 2016, more nationalist and protectionist policies that stoke inflation are in store."}]},{"type":"inline-ad-slot","attribs":{"tag":"1"}},{"type":"track-viewed-percentage","attribs":{"percentage":"20"}},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"The most important determinant of sentiment towards China, however, is the much-anticipated yet contentious fiscal component of the stimulus package."}]},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"By announcing a series of aggressive measures to "},{"type":"a","attribs":{"href":"https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3236323/chinas-indebted-local-governments-splash-out-billions-save-struggling-small-banks","title":"","target":"_self","data-entity-uuid":"71812d22-ef42-480a-916c-95dac4c6a98f","data-entity-type":"node","data-entity-bundle":"article"},"children":[{"type":"text","data":"recapitalise banks"}]},{"type":"text","data":", refinance "},{"type":"a","attribs":{"href":"https://www.scmp.com/economy/policy/article/3283483/will-stimulus-package-help-chinas-local-governments-pay-bills","title":"","target":"_self","data-entity-uuid":"96e147a4-f94c-42b6-b9ae-a5b82162b629","data-entity-type":"node","data-entity-bundle":"article"},"children":[{"type":"text","data":"local government debt"}]},{"type":"text","data":" and buy "},{"type":"a","attribs":{"href":"https://www.scmp.com/business/china-business/article/3263127/china-property-beijing-launches-us41-billion-fund-buy-unsold-homes-major-drive-rescue-housing-market?module=inline\u0026pgtype=article?module=inline\u0026pgtype=article","title":"","target":"_self","data-entity-uuid":"21eeee5e-00fb-449a-81b7-12852004ed4d","data-entity-type":"node","data-entity-bundle":"article"},"children":[{"type":"text","data":"unsold houses"}]},{"type":"text","data":" to reduce inventory, Beijing unleashed a torrent of speculation over the scale of the fiscal stimulus in the coming years."}]},{"type":"inline-ad-slot","attribs":{"tag":"2"}},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"The lack of clarity over the size and composition of the package has resulted in a dangerous mismatch between the expectations of investors and "},{"type":"a","attribs":{"href":"https://www.scmp.com/opinion/china-opinion/article/3282686/are-markets-misreading-chinas-economic-priorities","title":"","target":"_self","data-entity-uuid":"952d1cce-4e09-4a7f-8a5d-7e29d2305787","data-entity-type":"node","data-entity-bundle":"article"},"children":[{"type":"text","data":"Beijing’s priorities"}]},{"type":"text","data":"."}]},{"type":"div","attribs":{"class":"methode-html-wrapper oembed-wrapper"},"children":[{"type":"text","data":"\n"},{"subtype":"youtube","type":"iframe","attribs":{"allowfullscreen":"true","allowscriptaccess":"always","allow":"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture","class":"c1","frameborder":"0","width":"560","height":"315","scrolling":"no","src":"https://www.youtube.com/embed/0hhJTR0KhJ4?wmode=transparent\u0026jqoemcache=UdCOW\u0026enablejsapi=1\u0026playsinline=1","title":"Rally cry by Xi sets economic priorities for Chinese officials, absolves them of mistakes","data-poster-sm":"https://cdn.i-scmp.com/sites/default/files/styles/768x768/public/d8/video/thumbnail/2024/10/01/Thu_Clean_3.jpg?itok=_aOrEyyb","data-poster-lg":"https://cdn.i-scmp.com/sites/default/files/styles/wide_landscape/public/d8/video/thumbnail/2024/10/01/Thu_Clean_3.jpg?itok=wUqbLRvp","data-poster":"https://cdn.i-scmp.com/sites/default/files/d8/video/thumbnail/2024/10/01/Thu_Clean_3.jpg","data-duration":"03:49","data-video-source":"SCMP","data-nid":"3280693","data-youtube-id":"0hhJTR0KhJ4"},"children":[]}]},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"As markets await the details of the plan, due to be approved at the end of the conclave of the "},{"type":"a","attribs":{"href":"https://www.scmp.com/business/china-business/article/3284337/investors-await-chinas-npc-meeting-catalysts-sustain-us4-trillion-stock-rally","title":"","target":"_self","data-entity-uuid":"354d8962-9a91-44ee-8771-e46420c46ffa","data-entity-type":"node","data-entity-bundle":"article"},"children":[{"type":"text","data":"National People’s Congress"}]},{"type":"text","data":" (NPC) Standing Committee on November 8, magic numbers are being bandied around by Wall Street banks. Morgan Stanley believes a 10 trillion yuan (US$1.4 trillion) fiscal stimulus, amounting to about 5 per cent of China’s economic output, over a two-year period targeting consumers is one of the preconditions for ending deflation."}]},{"type":"inline-ad-slot","attribs":{"tag":"3"}},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"This is wishful thinking, mainly because Beijing’s objective is stabilisation as opposed to reflation, but also because local government debt restructuring is the main plank of the fiscal expansion. It also shows that the biggest challenge facing Chinese policymakers is managing expectations."}]},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"Even before Beijing fires its fiscal bazooka, there are signs the more forceful response is having a positive impact on the real economy. A gauge of private services sector activity experienced its sharpest monthly rise since March last year. Manufacturing output is expanding again while new home sales have risen sharply over the past several weeks, exceeding 2021-23 levels."}]},{"type":"track-viewed-percentage","attribs":{"percentage":"50"}},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"This adds to the uncertainty over how aggressive Beijing should be on the fiscal front. It also suggests a bolder and more clearly communicated policy package would have injected more confidence into the economy. By going big at the outset, policymakers would have got more bang for their buck, potentially without having to deploy as much stimulus. It is now more difficult and costly to exceed investors’ expectations."}]},{"type":"div","attribs":{"class":"methode-html-wrapper oembed-wrapper"},"children":[{"type":"text","data":"\n"},{"subtype":"youtube","type":"iframe","attribs":{"allowfullscreen":"true","allowscriptaccess":"always","allow":"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture","class":"c1","frameborder":"0","width":"560","height":"315","scrolling":"no","src":"https://www.youtube.com/embed/JxXN7RVih2o?wmode=transparent\u0026jqoemcache=UdCOW\u0026enablejsapi=1\u0026playsinline=1","title":"Wild swings in Hong Kong and mainland China stock markets","data-poster-sm":"https://cdn.i-scmp.com/sites/default/files/styles/768x768/public/d8/video/thumbnail/2024/10/10/Oct-10-market-review-3.jpg?itok=lypg5W_d","data-poster-lg":"https://cdn.i-scmp.com/sites/default/files/styles/wide_landscape/public/d8/video/thumbnail/2024/10/10/Oct-10-market-review-3.jpg?itok=RmXyOdZW","data-poster":"https://cdn.i-scmp.com/sites/default/files/d8/video/thumbnail/2024/10/10/Oct-10-market-review-3.jpg","data-duration":"08:47","data-video-source":"SCMP","data-nid":"3281861","data-youtube-id":"JxXN7RVih2o"},"children":[]}]},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"However, the fundamental reason the dissonance between policymakers and markets is likely to persist is the scale of the structural, economic and geopolitical challenges facing China in the coming years, amplified by "},{"type":"a","attribs":{"href":"https://www.scmp.com/news/us/us-elections/article/3285498/trumps-national-security-jobs-will-go-loyalists-china-hawks-analyst","title":"","target":"_self","data-entity-uuid":"e1ddbd3d-97e0-4173-bada-92707995aa5a","data-entity-type":"node","data-entity-bundle":"article"},"children":[{"type":"text","data":"Trump’s resounding victory"}]},{"type":"text","data":"."}]},{"type":"inline-ad-slot","attribs":{"tag":"4"}},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"First, there are significant constraints on the size and effectiveness of any fiscal stimulus programme. As Goldman Sachs notes, the downturn in the property sector and related industries – which still account for nearly 20 per cent of economic activity – and the weakness of household consumption are likely to result in “policy transmission” being “less efficient than [in] previous easing cycles”."}]},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"In addition to weak "},{"type":"a","attribs":{"href":"https://www.scmp.com/economy/policy/article/3285419/chinas-income-job-woes-still-weigh-heavy-consumption-campaign-targets-5-key-cites","title":"","target":"_self","data-entity-uuid":"e92faade-26b9-46db-af52-7cbd4c67fc97","data-entity-type":"node","data-entity-bundle":"article"},"children":[{"type":"text","data":"household income"}]},{"type":"text","data":" growth, persistent deflationary pressures have depressed corporate revenues, resulting in a sharp decline in tax revenues. This does not only limit the scope for fiscal stimulus, but also keeps the stock market under pressure. Except for the financial sector, corporate earnings fell at a steeper pace last quarter."}]},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"Second, Beijing is focused on “"},{"type":"a","attribs":{"href":"https://www.scmp.com/opinion/china-opinion/article/3271059/heres-how-china-can-fund-its-third-plenum-goal-high-quality-development","title":"","target":"_self","data-entity-uuid":"94f7fb08-3284-4fe3-94ec-0664154fabee","data-entity-type":"node","data-entity-bundle":"article"},"children":[{"type":"text","data":"high-quality development"}]},{"type":"text","data":"”, whereby investments in high-end manufacturing plug the demand gap left by property-related sectors. The prioritisation of investment over consumption is something markets are struggling to come to terms with because it prolongs weak domestic demand and fans fears of China turning into "},{"type":"a","attribs":{"href":"https://www.scmp.com/opinion/china-opinion/article/3278189/chinas-economy-isnt-becoming-japanified-least-not-yet","title":"","target":"_self","data-entity-uuid":"f8f37ce6-2119-4722-a91d-d31785b84e6b","data-entity-type":"node","data-entity-bundle":"article"},"children":[{"type":"text","data":"1990s Japan"}]},{"type":"text","data":"."}]},{"type":"div","attribs":{"class":"methode-html-wrapper oembed-wrapper"},"children":[{"type":"text","data":"\n"},{"subtype":"youtube","type":"iframe","attribs":{"allowfullscreen":"true","allowscriptaccess":"always","allow":"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture","class":"c1","frameborder":"0","width":"560","height":"315","scrolling":"no","src":"https://www.youtube.com/embed/pcgVe9Oo-N0?wmode=transparent\u0026jqoemcache=UdCOW\u0026enablejsapi=1\u0026playsinline=1","title":"Can China learn lessons from Japan’s ‘lost 30 years’?","data-poster-sm":"https://cdn.i-scmp.com/sites/default/files/styles/768x768/public/d8/video/thumbnail/2023/09/08/clean-no-arrow.jpg?itok=Bd3v-Cej","data-poster-lg":"https://cdn.i-scmp.com/sites/default/files/styles/wide_landscape/public/d8/video/thumbnail/2023/09/08/clean-no-arrow.jpg?itok=aj6OVP9X","data-poster":"https://cdn.i-scmp.com/sites/default/files/d8/video/thumbnail/2023/09/08/clean-no-arrow.jpg","data-duration":"16:50","data-video-source":"SCMP","data-nid":"3233815","data-youtube-id":"pcgVe9Oo-N0"},"children":[]}]},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"China’s bond market warrants close attention. The yield on China’s 30-year bond is on the cusp of converging with Japan’s. That says more about deflationary conditions in China than it does about the return of inflation in Japan. The most reliable gauge of the effectiveness of China’s stimulus package is the benchmark 10-year bond yield which has barely budged since the policy shift in late September."}]},{"type":"inline-ad-slot","attribs":{"tag":"5"}},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"Third, the approval of the package of fiscal measures by the NPC Standing Committee is not the final word on stimulus. Trump’s victory puts more pressure on Beijing to bolster its defences against the threat of much steeper tariffs. Nomura believes the fiscal stimulus will be 10-20 per cent bigger with Trump back in the White House."}]},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"However, this suggests boosting domestic demand will be the main weapon against higher tariffs. Investors banking on more consumption stimulus due to Trump’s victory will be disappointed. Robin Brooks of the Brookings Institution recently tweeted that “China has only one option in response to tariffs: allow the [yuan] to fall hard and fast”. He also tweeted: “Markets should stop chasing China stimulus.”"}]},{"type":"track-viewed-percentage","attribs":{"percentage":"90"}},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"Beijing is partly to blame for raising expectations. 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Expectation management","images":[{"generic_og":{"url":"https://cdn.i-scmp.com/sites/default/files/styles/og_image_scmp_generic/public/d8/images/canvas/2024/11/07/3300c9a6-75d9-4506-b6c1-0af42fd38a1c_2ebb98ea.jpg?itok=r9uwTzaY\u0026v=1730966897"},"styles":[{"url":"https://cdn.i-scmp.com/sites/default/files/styles/og_image_posties_article/public/d8/images/canvas/2024/11/07/3300c9a6-75d9-4506-b6c1-0af42fd38a1c_2ebb98ea.jpg?itok=tpuenGkW\u0026v=1730966897","style":"og_image_posties_article"},{"url":"https://cdn.i-scmp.com/sites/default/files/styles/og_postmag/public/d8/images/canvas/2024/11/07/3300c9a6-75d9-4506-b6c1-0af42fd38a1c_2ebb98ea.jpg?itok=961HZvaM\u0026v=1730966897","style":"og_postmag"},{"url":"https://cdn.i-scmp.com/sites/default/files/styles/og_image_scmp_analysis/public/d8/images/canvas/2024/11/07/3300c9a6-75d9-4506-b6c1-0af42fd38a1c_2ebb98ea.jpg?itok=fvdv9oCD\u0026v=1730966897","style":"og_image_scmp_analysis"},{"url":"https://cdn.i-scmp.com/sites/default/files/styles/og_image_scmp_explainer/public/d8/images/canvas/2024/11/07/3300c9a6-75d9-4506-b6c1-0af42fd38a1c_2ebb98ea.jpg?itok=SdtohM0R\u0026v=1730966897","style":"og_image_scmp_explainer"},{"url":"https://cdn.i-scmp.com/sites/default/files/styles/og_image_scmp_editorial/public/d8/images/canvas/2024/11/07/3300c9a6-75d9-4506-b6c1-0af42fd38a1c_2ebb98ea.jpg?itok=56hJVRvG\u0026v=1730966897","style":"og_image_scmp_editorial"},{"url":"https://cdn.i-scmp.com/sites/default/files/styles/og_image_scmp_fact_check/public/d8/images/canvas/2024/11/07/3300c9a6-75d9-4506-b6c1-0af42fd38a1c_2ebb98ea.jpg?itok=C8mk8WUO\u0026v=1730966897","style":"og_image_scmp_fact_check"},{"url":"https://cdn.i-scmp.com/sites/default/files/styles/og_image_scmp_debate/public/d8/images/canvas/2024/11/07/3300c9a6-75d9-4506-b6c1-0af42fd38a1c_2ebb98ea.jpg?itok=2RtYLdmy\u0026v=1730966897","style":"og_image_scmp_debate"},{"url":"https://cdn.i-scmp.com/sites/default/files/styles/og_image_scmp_live/public/d8/images/canvas/2024/11/07/3300c9a6-75d9-4506-b6c1-0af42fd38a1c_2ebb98ea.jpg?itok=t_l4bWyb\u0026v=1730966897","style":"og_image_scmp_live"},{"url":"https://cdn.i-scmp.com/sites/default/files/styles/og_image_scmp_obituary/public/d8/images/canvas/2024/11/07/3300c9a6-75d9-4506-b6c1-0af42fd38a1c_2ebb98ea.jpg?itok=I2xut1Kn\u0026v=1730966897","style":"og_image_scmp_obituary"},{"url":"https://cdn.i-scmp.com/sites/default/files/styles/og_image_scmp_opinion/public/d8/images/canvas/2024/11/07/3300c9a6-75d9-4506-b6c1-0af42fd38a1c_2ebb98ea.jpg?itok=mwLbv8f0\u0026v=1730966897","style":"og_image_scmp_opinion"},{"url":"https://cdn.i-scmp.com/sites/default/files/styles/og_image_scmp_review/public/d8/images/canvas/2024/11/07/3300c9a6-75d9-4506-b6c1-0af42fd38a1c_2ebb98ea.jpg?itok=bza_Qk_j\u0026v=1730966897","style":"og_image_scmp_review"},{"url":"https://cdn.i-scmp.com/sites/default/files/styles/og_image_scmp_series/public/d8/images/canvas/2024/11/07/3300c9a6-75d9-4506-b6c1-0af42fd38a1c_2ebb98ea.jpg?itok=hGCruOx1\u0026v=1730966897","style":"og_image_scmp_series"},{"url":"https://cdn.i-scmp.com/sites/default/files/styles/og_image_scmp_generic/public/d8/images/canvas/2024/11/07/3300c9a6-75d9-4506-b6c1-0af42fd38a1c_2ebb98ea.jpg?itok=r9uwTzaY\u0026v=1730966897","style":"og_image_scmp_generic"}],"type":"leading","style":{"url":"https://cdn.i-scmp.com/sites/default/files/styles/768x768/public/d8/images/canvas/2024/11/07/3300c9a6-75d9-4506-b6c1-0af42fd38a1c_2ebb98ea.jpg?itok=q6zuzK3C\u0026v=1730966897"},"title":"People pass by a display board showing Chinese stock market movements on November 6, in Beijing, during the US presidential election. Photo: AP","url":"https://cdn.i-scmp.com/sites/default/files/d8/images/canvas/2024/11/07/3300c9a6-75d9-4506-b6c1-0af42fd38a1c_2ebb98ea.jpg","isSlideshow":true,"sizeLandscape250x99":{"url":"https://cdn.i-scmp.com/sites/default/files/styles/landscape_250_99/public/d8/images/canvas/2024/11/07/3300c9a6-75d9-4506-b6c1-0af42fd38a1c_2ebb98ea.jpg?itok=BZ0bWrkZ\u0026v=1730966897"},"size1280x720":{"url":"https://cdn.i-scmp.com/sites/default/files/styles/wide_landscape/public/d8/images/canvas/2024/11/07/3300c9a6-75d9-4506-b6c1-0af42fd38a1c_2ebb98ea.jpg?itok=j2PKSSVU\u0026v=1730966897"},"size1200x800":{"url":"https://cdn.i-scmp.com/sites/default/files/styles/1200x800/public/d8/images/canvas/2024/11/07/3300c9a6-75d9-4506-b6c1-0af42fd38a1c_2ebb98ea.jpg?itok=Lj07DaWi\u0026v=1730966897"},"size1020x680":{"url":"https://cdn.i-scmp.com/sites/default/files/styles/1020x680/public/d8/images/canvas/2024/11/07/3300c9a6-75d9-4506-b6c1-0af42fd38a1c_2ebb98ea.jpg?itok=x_edYNFa\u0026v=1730966897"},"size768x768":{"url":"https://cdn.i-scmp.com/sites/default/files/styles/768x768/public/d8/images/canvas/2024/11/07/3300c9a6-75d9-4506-b6c1-0af42fd38a1c_2ebb98ea.jpg?itok=q6zuzK3C\u0026v=1730966897"},"landscape250x99":{"url":"https://cdn.i-scmp.com/sites/default/files/styles/landscape_250_99/public/d8/images/canvas/2024/11/07/3300c9a6-75d9-4506-b6c1-0af42fd38a1c_2ebb98ea.jpg?itok=BZ0bWrkZ\u0026v=1730966897"},"size540x360":{"url":"https://cdn.i-scmp.com/sites/default/files/styles/540x360/public/d8/images/canvas/2024/11/07/3300c9a6-75d9-4506-b6c1-0af42fd38a1c_2ebb98ea.jpg?itok=S3szGdQG\u0026v=1730966897"},"height":2730,"width":4095}],"disableOffPlatformContent":[],"published":true,"sponsorType":null,"publishedDate":1730982607000,"updatedDate":1730985813000,"summary":{"text":"As Beijing prioritises stability and development over reflation, investors must reconcile themselves to the realities of Chinese policymaking.\n","json":[{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"As Beijing prioritises stability and development over reflation, investors must reconcile themselves to the realities of Chinese policymaking."}]}]},"subHeadline":{"text":"As Beijing prioritises stability and development over reflation, investors must reconcile themselves to the realities of Chinese policymaking\n","json":[{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"As Beijing prioritises stability and development over reflation, investors must reconcile themselves to the realities of Chinese policymaking"}]}]},"body":{"text":"There are plenty of sceptics and critics when it comes to China’s latest stimulus package. But even the naysayers admit Beijing has changed the calculus for the performance of Chinese stocks. Before the bevy of measures were announced in late September, the odds of a durable rally were slim to none.\nFast forward to today and the outlook for Chinese equities is no longer a one-way bet. Morgan Stanley believes a policy pivot has occurred but asks whether it is “sufficient to deliver an exit from deflation”. The company sees a “wide range of potential outcomes” for Chinese and other Asian stock markets.\nTo be sure, the uncertainty stems from several factors. The stunning victory of Donald Trump in the US presidential election has provided impetus to the rally in the dollar, driven bond yields higher and set the stage for more punitive tariffs on imported goods. With Trump enjoying a much stronger mandate than when he was elected in 2016, more nationalist and protectionist policies that stoke inflation are in store.\nThe most important determinant of sentiment towards China, however, is the much-anticipated yet contentious fiscal component of the stimulus package.\nBy announcing a series of aggressive measures to recapitalise banks, refinance local government debt and buy unsold houses to reduce inventory, Beijing unleashed a torrent of speculation over the scale of the fiscal stimulus in the coming years.\nThe lack of clarity over the size and composition of the package has resulted in a dangerous mismatch between the expectations of investors and Beijing’s priorities.\n\n\nAs markets await the details of the plan, due to be approved at the end of the conclave of the National People’s Congress (NPC) Standing Committee on November 8, magic numbers are being bandied around by Wall Street banks. Morgan Stanley believes a 10 trillion yuan (US$1.4 trillion) fiscal stimulus, amounting to about 5 per cent of China’s economic output, over a two-year period targeting consumers is one of the preconditions for ending deflation.\nThis is wishful thinking, mainly because Beijing’s objective is stabilisation as opposed to reflation, but also because local government debt restructuring is the main plank of the fiscal expansion. It also shows that the biggest challenge facing Chinese policymakers is managing expectations.\nEven before Beijing fires its fiscal bazooka, there are signs the more forceful response is having a positive impact on the real economy. A gauge of private services sector activity experienced its sharpest monthly rise since March last year. Manufacturing output is expanding again while new home sales have risen sharply over the past several weeks, exceeding 2021-23 levels.\nThis adds to the uncertainty over how aggressive Beijing should be on the fiscal front. It also suggests a bolder and more clearly communicated policy package would have injected more confidence into the economy. By going big at the outset, policymakers would have got more bang for their buck, potentially without having to deploy as much stimulus. It is now more difficult and costly to exceed investors’ expectations.\n\n\nHowever, the fundamental reason the dissonance between policymakers and markets is likely to persist is the scale of the structural, economic and geopolitical challenges facing China in the coming years, amplified by Trump’s resounding victory.\nFirst, there are significant constraints on the size and effectiveness of any fiscal stimulus programme. As Goldman Sachs notes, the downturn in the property sector and related industries – which still account for nearly 20 per cent of economic activity – and the weakness of household consumption are likely to result in “policy transmission” being “less efficient than [in] previous easing cycles”.\nIn addition to weak household income growth, persistent deflationary pressures have depressed corporate revenues, resulting in a sharp decline in tax revenues. This does not only limit the scope for fiscal stimulus, but also keeps the stock market under pressure. Except for the financial sector, corporate earnings fell at a steeper pace last quarter.\nSecond, Beijing is focused on “high-quality development”, whereby investments in high-end manufacturing plug the demand gap left by property-related sectors. The prioritisation of investment over consumption is something markets are struggling to come to terms with because it prolongs weak domestic demand and fans fears of China turning into 1990s Japan.\n\n\nChina’s bond market warrants close attention. The yield on China’s 30-year bond is on the cusp of converging with Japan’s. That says more about deflationary conditions in China than it does about the return of inflation in Japan. The most reliable gauge of the effectiveness of China’s stimulus package is the benchmark 10-year bond yield which has barely budged since the policy shift in late September.\nThird, the approval of the package of fiscal measures by the NPC Standing Committee is not the final word on stimulus. Trump’s victory puts more pressure on Beijing to bolster its defences against the threat of much steeper tariffs. Nomura believes the fiscal stimulus will be 10-20 per cent bigger with Trump back in the White House.\nHowever, this suggests boosting domestic demand will be the main weapon against higher tariffs. Investors banking on more consumption stimulus due to Trump’s victory will be disappointed. Robin Brooks of the Brookings Institution recently tweeted that “China has only one option in response to tariffs: allow the [yuan] to fall hard and fast”. He also tweeted: “Markets should stop chasing China stimulus.”\nBeijing is partly to blame for raising expectations. But investors need to reconcile themselves to the geopolitical and economic realities of Chinese policymaking.\n","json":[{"type":"track-viewed-percentage","attribs":{"percentage":"0"}},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"There are plenty of sceptics and critics when it comes to China’s "},{"type":"a","attribs":{"href":"https://www.scmp.com/economy/policy/article/3279756/7-takeaways-chinas-most-significant-stimulus-package-pandemic?module=inline\u0026pgtype=article","title":"","target":"_self","data-entity-uuid":"c1934666-7e81-4b73-a409-ef6ffe212273","data-entity-type":"node","data-entity-bundle":"article"},"children":[{"type":"text","data":"latest stimulus package"}]},{"type":"text","data":". But even the naysayers admit Beijing has changed the calculus for the performance of Chinese stocks. Before the bevy of measures were announced in late September, the odds of a durable rally were slim to none."}]},{"type":"inline-ad-slot","attribs":{"tag":"0"}},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"Fast forward to today and the outlook for Chinese equities is no longer a one-way bet. Morgan Stanley believes a policy pivot has occurred but asks whether it is “sufficient to deliver an exit from deflation”. The company sees a “wide range of potential outcomes” for Chinese and other Asian stock markets."}]},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"To be sure, the uncertainty stems from several factors. The stunning victory of "},{"type":"a","attribs":{"href":"https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3285460/its-trump-taut-race-ends-former-president-returning-white-house","title":"","target":"_self","data-entity-uuid":"055affef-0ee0-44a0-bb66-5aba13244826","data-entity-type":"node","data-entity-bundle":"article"},"children":[{"type":"text","data":"Donald Trump"}]},{"type":"text","data":" in the "},{"type":"a","attribs":{"href":"https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/series/3281928/us-elections-2024-what-you-need-know?module=inline\u0026pgtype=article","title":"","target":"_self","data-entity-uuid":"703ff9fb-fb4b-4124-aa40-b8a1649e1276","data-entity-type":"node","data-entity-bundle":"article"},"children":[{"type":"text","data":"US presidential election"}]},{"type":"text","data":" has provided impetus to the rally in the dollar, driven bond yields higher and set the stage for more "},{"type":"a","attribs":{"href":"https://www.scmp.com/economy/global-economy/article/3264718/trumps-proposed-china-import-tariffs-would-hit-average-americans-us1700-tax-increase-researchers?module=inline\u0026pgtype=article","title":"","target":"_self","data-entity-uuid":"f977d565-1aa7-4165-b7e7-4467f6982273","data-entity-type":"node","data-entity-bundle":"article"},"children":[{"type":"text","data":"punitive tariffs"}]},{"type":"text","data":" on imported goods. With Trump enjoying a much stronger mandate than when he was elected in 2016, more nationalist and protectionist policies that stoke inflation are in store."}]},{"type":"inline-ad-slot","attribs":{"tag":"1"}},{"type":"track-viewed-percentage","attribs":{"percentage":"20"}},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"The most important determinant of sentiment towards China, however, is the much-anticipated yet contentious fiscal component of the stimulus package."}]},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"By announcing a series of aggressive measures to "},{"type":"a","attribs":{"href":"https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3236323/chinas-indebted-local-governments-splash-out-billions-save-struggling-small-banks","title":"","target":"_self","data-entity-uuid":"71812d22-ef42-480a-916c-95dac4c6a98f","data-entity-type":"node","data-entity-bundle":"article"},"children":[{"type":"text","data":"recapitalise banks"}]},{"type":"text","data":", refinance "},{"type":"a","attribs":{"href":"https://www.scmp.com/economy/policy/article/3283483/will-stimulus-package-help-chinas-local-governments-pay-bills","title":"","target":"_self","data-entity-uuid":"96e147a4-f94c-42b6-b9ae-a5b82162b629","data-entity-type":"node","data-entity-bundle":"article"},"children":[{"type":"text","data":"local government debt"}]},{"type":"text","data":" and buy "},{"type":"a","attribs":{"href":"https://www.scmp.com/business/china-business/article/3263127/china-property-beijing-launches-us41-billion-fund-buy-unsold-homes-major-drive-rescue-housing-market?module=inline\u0026pgtype=article?module=inline\u0026pgtype=article","title":"","target":"_self","data-entity-uuid":"21eeee5e-00fb-449a-81b7-12852004ed4d","data-entity-type":"node","data-entity-bundle":"article"},"children":[{"type":"text","data":"unsold houses"}]},{"type":"text","data":" to reduce inventory, Beijing unleashed a torrent of speculation over the scale of the fiscal stimulus in the coming years."}]},{"type":"inline-ad-slot","attribs":{"tag":"2"}},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"The lack of clarity over the size and composition of the package has resulted in a dangerous mismatch between the expectations of investors and "},{"type":"a","attribs":{"href":"https://www.scmp.com/opinion/china-opinion/article/3282686/are-markets-misreading-chinas-economic-priorities","title":"","target":"_self","data-entity-uuid":"952d1cce-4e09-4a7f-8a5d-7e29d2305787","data-entity-type":"node","data-entity-bundle":"article"},"children":[{"type":"text","data":"Beijing’s priorities"}]},{"type":"text","data":"."}]},{"type":"div","attribs":{"class":"methode-html-wrapper oembed-wrapper"},"children":[{"type":"text","data":"\n"},{"subtype":"youtube","type":"iframe","attribs":{"allowfullscreen":"true","allowscriptaccess":"always","allow":"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture","class":"c1","frameborder":"0","width":"560","height":"315","scrolling":"no","src":"https://www.youtube.com/embed/0hhJTR0KhJ4?wmode=transparent\u0026jqoemcache=UdCOW\u0026enablejsapi=1\u0026playsinline=1","title":"Rally cry by Xi sets economic priorities for Chinese officials, absolves them of mistakes","data-poster-sm":"https://cdn.i-scmp.com/sites/default/files/styles/768x768/public/d8/video/thumbnail/2024/10/01/Thu_Clean_3.jpg?itok=_aOrEyyb","data-poster-lg":"https://cdn.i-scmp.com/sites/default/files/styles/wide_landscape/public/d8/video/thumbnail/2024/10/01/Thu_Clean_3.jpg?itok=wUqbLRvp","data-poster":"https://cdn.i-scmp.com/sites/default/files/d8/video/thumbnail/2024/10/01/Thu_Clean_3.jpg","data-duration":"03:49","data-video-source":"SCMP","data-nid":"3280693","data-youtube-id":"0hhJTR0KhJ4"},"children":[]}]},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"As markets await the details of the plan, due to be approved at the end of the conclave of the "},{"type":"a","attribs":{"href":"https://www.scmp.com/business/china-business/article/3284337/investors-await-chinas-npc-meeting-catalysts-sustain-us4-trillion-stock-rally","title":"","target":"_self","data-entity-uuid":"354d8962-9a91-44ee-8771-e46420c46ffa","data-entity-type":"node","data-entity-bundle":"article"},"children":[{"type":"text","data":"National People’s Congress"}]},{"type":"text","data":" (NPC) Standing Committee on November 8, magic numbers are being bandied around by Wall Street banks. Morgan Stanley believes a 10 trillion yuan (US$1.4 trillion) fiscal stimulus, amounting to about 5 per cent of China’s economic output, over a two-year period targeting consumers is one of the preconditions for ending deflation."}]},{"type":"inline-ad-slot","attribs":{"tag":"3"}},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"This is wishful thinking, mainly because Beijing’s objective is stabilisation as opposed to reflation, but also because local government debt restructuring is the main plank of the fiscal expansion. It also shows that the biggest challenge facing Chinese policymakers is managing expectations."}]},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"Even before Beijing fires its fiscal bazooka, there are signs the more forceful response is having a positive impact on the real economy. A gauge of private services sector activity experienced its sharpest monthly rise since March last year. Manufacturing output is expanding again while new home sales have risen sharply over the past several weeks, exceeding 2021-23 levels."}]},{"type":"track-viewed-percentage","attribs":{"percentage":"50"}},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"This adds to the uncertainty over how aggressive Beijing should be on the fiscal front. It also suggests a bolder and more clearly communicated policy package would have injected more confidence into the economy. By going big at the outset, policymakers would have got more bang for their buck, potentially without having to deploy as much stimulus. It is now more difficult and costly to exceed investors’ expectations."}]},{"type":"div","attribs":{"class":"methode-html-wrapper oembed-wrapper"},"children":[{"type":"text","data":"\n"},{"subtype":"youtube","type":"iframe","attribs":{"allowfullscreen":"true","allowscriptaccess":"always","allow":"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture","class":"c1","frameborder":"0","width":"560","height":"315","scrolling":"no","src":"https://www.youtube.com/embed/JxXN7RVih2o?wmode=transparent\u0026jqoemcache=UdCOW\u0026enablejsapi=1\u0026playsinline=1","title":"Wild swings in Hong Kong and mainland China stock markets","data-poster-sm":"https://cdn.i-scmp.com/sites/default/files/styles/768x768/public/d8/video/thumbnail/2024/10/10/Oct-10-market-review-3.jpg?itok=lypg5W_d","data-poster-lg":"https://cdn.i-scmp.com/sites/default/files/styles/wide_landscape/public/d8/video/thumbnail/2024/10/10/Oct-10-market-review-3.jpg?itok=RmXyOdZW","data-poster":"https://cdn.i-scmp.com/sites/default/files/d8/video/thumbnail/2024/10/10/Oct-10-market-review-3.jpg","data-duration":"08:47","data-video-source":"SCMP","data-nid":"3281861","data-youtube-id":"JxXN7RVih2o"},"children":[]}]},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"However, the fundamental reason the dissonance between policymakers and markets is likely to persist is the scale of the structural, economic and geopolitical challenges facing China in the coming years, amplified by "},{"type":"a","attribs":{"href":"https://www.scmp.com/news/us/us-elections/article/3285498/trumps-national-security-jobs-will-go-loyalists-china-hawks-analyst","title":"","target":"_self","data-entity-uuid":"e1ddbd3d-97e0-4173-bada-92707995aa5a","data-entity-type":"node","data-entity-bundle":"article"},"children":[{"type":"text","data":"Trump’s resounding victory"}]},{"type":"text","data":"."}]},{"type":"inline-ad-slot","attribs":{"tag":"4"}},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"First, there are significant constraints on the size and effectiveness of any fiscal stimulus programme. As Goldman Sachs notes, the downturn in the property sector and related industries – which still account for nearly 20 per cent of economic activity – and the weakness of household consumption are likely to result in “policy transmission” being “less efficient than [in] previous easing cycles”."}]},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"In addition to weak "},{"type":"a","attribs":{"href":"https://www.scmp.com/economy/policy/article/3285419/chinas-income-job-woes-still-weigh-heavy-consumption-campaign-targets-5-key-cites","title":"","target":"_self","data-entity-uuid":"e92faade-26b9-46db-af52-7cbd4c67fc97","data-entity-type":"node","data-entity-bundle":"article"},"children":[{"type":"text","data":"household income"}]},{"type":"text","data":" growth, persistent deflationary pressures have depressed corporate revenues, resulting in a sharp decline in tax revenues. This does not only limit the scope for fiscal stimulus, but also keeps the stock market under pressure. Except for the financial sector, corporate earnings fell at a steeper pace last quarter."}]},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"Second, Beijing is focused on “"},{"type":"a","attribs":{"href":"https://www.scmp.com/opinion/china-opinion/article/3271059/heres-how-china-can-fund-its-third-plenum-goal-high-quality-development","title":"","target":"_self","data-entity-uuid":"94f7fb08-3284-4fe3-94ec-0664154fabee","data-entity-type":"node","data-entity-bundle":"article"},"children":[{"type":"text","data":"high-quality development"}]},{"type":"text","data":"”, whereby investments in high-end manufacturing plug the demand gap left by property-related sectors. The prioritisation of investment over consumption is something markets are struggling to come to terms with because it prolongs weak domestic demand and fans fears of China turning into "},{"type":"a","attribs":{"href":"https://www.scmp.com/opinion/china-opinion/article/3278189/chinas-economy-isnt-becoming-japanified-least-not-yet","title":"","target":"_self","data-entity-uuid":"f8f37ce6-2119-4722-a91d-d31785b84e6b","data-entity-type":"node","data-entity-bundle":"article"},"children":[{"type":"text","data":"1990s Japan"}]},{"type":"text","data":"."}]},{"type":"div","attribs":{"class":"methode-html-wrapper oembed-wrapper"},"children":[{"type":"text","data":"\n"},{"subtype":"youtube","type":"iframe","attribs":{"allowfullscreen":"true","allowscriptaccess":"always","allow":"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture","class":"c1","frameborder":"0","width":"560","height":"315","scrolling":"no","src":"https://www.youtube.com/embed/pcgVe9Oo-N0?wmode=transparent\u0026jqoemcache=UdCOW\u0026enablejsapi=1\u0026playsinline=1","title":"Can China learn lessons from Japan’s ‘lost 30 years’?","data-poster-sm":"https://cdn.i-scmp.com/sites/default/files/styles/768x768/public/d8/video/thumbnail/2023/09/08/clean-no-arrow.jpg?itok=Bd3v-Cej","data-poster-lg":"https://cdn.i-scmp.com/sites/default/files/styles/wide_landscape/public/d8/video/thumbnail/2023/09/08/clean-no-arrow.jpg?itok=aj6OVP9X","data-poster":"https://cdn.i-scmp.com/sites/default/files/d8/video/thumbnail/2023/09/08/clean-no-arrow.jpg","data-duration":"16:50","data-video-source":"SCMP","data-nid":"3233815","data-youtube-id":"pcgVe9Oo-N0"},"children":[]}]},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"China’s bond market warrants close attention. The yield on China’s 30-year bond is on the cusp of converging with Japan’s. That says more about deflationary conditions in China than it does about the return of inflation in Japan. The most reliable gauge of the effectiveness of China’s stimulus package is the benchmark 10-year bond yield which has barely budged since the policy shift in late September."}]},{"type":"inline-ad-slot","attribs":{"tag":"5"}},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"Third, the approval of the package of fiscal measures by the NPC Standing Committee is not the final word on stimulus. Trump’s victory puts more pressure on Beijing to bolster its defences against the threat of much steeper tariffs. Nomura believes the fiscal stimulus will be 10-20 per cent bigger with Trump back in the White House."}]},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"However, this suggests boosting domestic demand will be the main weapon against higher tariffs. Investors banking on more consumption stimulus due to Trump’s victory will be disappointed. Robin Brooks of the Brookings Institution recently tweeted that “China has only one option in response to tariffs: allow the [yuan] to fall hard and fast”. He also tweeted: “Markets should stop chasing China stimulus.”"}]},{"type":"track-viewed-percentage","attribs":{"percentage":"90"}},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"Beijing is partly to blame for raising expectations. 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