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data-component="mdc-c-module-wrapper" data-module-theme="dark" data-module-background="deep-blue" data-module-category="AnchoredHero" class="ArticleDefault_mck-c-article-default__SfYQE"><style></style><div data-component="mdc-c-background-image" class="mdc-c-bg-image___GJdv1_2734c4f background-image-article-default ArticleDefault_mck-c-article-default__parallax-container__fZ7Iq"></div><div class="ArticleDefault_mck-c-article-default__gradient__Uu21n"></div><div class="ArticleDefault_mck-c-article-default__wrapper-content__XOe9C"><div class="mck-o-container"><div class="mck-o-container--wrapped mck-o-container--mobile-spacing mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-col-lg-12"><div data-component="mdc-c-content-block" class="mdc-c-content-block___7p6Lu_2734c4f mdc-u-grid-col-lg-start-1 mdc-u-grid-col-lg-span-10"><div><h1 data-component="mdc-c-heading" class="mdc-c-heading___0fM1W_2734c4f mdc-u-ts-2 mck-u-animation-slide-down ArticleDefault_mck-c-article-default__heading__bv6rL"><div>Winter is coming: What’s next in COVID-19 testing</div></h1></div><div data-component="mdc-c-description" class="mdc-c-description___SrnQP_2734c4f mdc-u-ts-10 mck-u-animation-blur-in-800 ArticleDefault_mck-c-article-default__description__sjoe9"><div><time datetime="2020-09-30T00:00:00Z">September 30, 2020</time> | Article</div></div></div></div></div></div></div><div class="mck-o-container"><div class="mck-o-container--wrapped mck-o-container--mobile-spacing mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-gutter-xxl"><section data-layer-region="article-body-header" class="mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-col-md-12 mck-u-animation-blur-in-400 byline-share-container"><div class="mdc-u-grid-col-md-start-2 mdc-u-grid-col-md-end-8 mdc-u-grid-col-lg-start-3 mdc-u-grid-col-lg-end-8 mdc-u-ts-9"><span> </span><span class="AuthorsByLine_mck-c-authors-byline__author__XdrlD"><span class="AuthorsByLine_mck-c-authors-byline__no-wrap__Ced0j">Daniel Cramer </span></span><span class="AuthorsByLine_mck-c-authors-byline__author__XdrlD"><span class="AuthorsByLine_mck-c-authors-byline__no-wrap__Ced0j"><a data-component="mdc-c-link" href="/our-people/paul-rutten" class="mdc-c-link-inline___7DRrt_2734c4f mdc-c-link-inline--secondary___YKoOK_2734c4f"><span class="mdc-c-link__label___Pfqtd_2734c4f">Paul Rutten</span></a><span> </span></span></span><span class="AuthorsByLine_mck-c-authors-byline__author__XdrlD"><span class="AuthorsByLine_mck-c-authors-byline__no-wrap__Ced0j">Audrey Stikkers</span></span></div><div class="mdc-u-grid-col-md-start-8 mdc-u-grid-col-md-end-12 mdc-u-grid-col-lg-start-8 mdc-u-grid-col-lg-end-11 ArticleContent_mck-c-article-content__share-tools__kWRRw"></div></section><section class="mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-col-md-12 mck-u-animation-blur-in-400"><div class="mdc-u-grid-col-md-start-2 mdc-u-grid-col-md-end-12 mdc-u-grid-col-lg-start-3 mdc-u-grid-col-lg-end-11"><div data-component="mdc-c-description" class="mdc-c-description___SrnQP_2734c4f mdc-u-ts-5"><div class="mck-u-links-inline">The upcoming flu season in the Northern Hemisphere is expected to increase demand for COVID-19 testing. Decision makers may ask: Will there be enough flexible testing capacity to respond to global demand and avoid second lockdowns?</div></div></div></section><main data-layer-region="article-body" class="mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-gutter-xxl"><div class="mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-col-1 mdc-u-grid-col-md-12"><div class="mdc-u-grid-col-md-start-2 mdc-u-grid-col-md-end-12 mdc-u-grid-col-lg-start-3 mdc-u-grid-col-lg-end-11"><div class="mdc-o-content-body mck-u-dropcap"><div class="mck-o-sidebar mck-o-xs-right-span"><div data-component="mdc-c-module-wrapper" data-module-theme="default" data-module-background="transparent" data-module-category="" class="DownloadsSidebar_mck-c-downloads-sidebar__iFmyt mck-o-xs-right-span"><div data-layer-region="downloads-right-rail"><h3 data-component="mdc-c-heading" class="mdc-c-heading___0fM1W_2734c4f mdc-c-heading--title___5qyOB_2734c4f mdc-c-heading--border___K8dj3_2734c4f"></h3><div><div data-component="mdc-c-link-container" class="mdc-c-link-container___xefGu_2734c4f"><a data-component="mdc-c-link" href="#/download/%2F~%2Fmedia%2Fmckinsey%2Findustries%2Fhealthcare%20systems%20and%20services%2Four%20insights%2Fwinter%20is%20coming%20whats%20next%20in%20covid%2019%20testing%2Fwinter-is-coming-whats-next-in-covid-19-testing.pdf%3FshouldIndex%3Dfalse" class="DownloadsSidebar_mck-c-downloads-sidebar__download-link__fPqFQ mdc-c-link___lBbY1_2734c4f" target="_self" data-layer-event-prefix="Download Link" data-layer-action="click" data-layer-report-type="" data-layer-file-name="winter-is-coming-whats-next-in-covid-19-testing" data-layer-report-name="winter-is-coming-whats-next-in-covid-19-testing>"><span data-component="mdc-c-icon" class="mdc-c-icon___oi7ef_2734c4f mdc-c-icon--size-md___yi5fA_2734c4f mck-download-icon"></span><span class="mdc-c-link__label___Pfqtd_2734c4f"> (PDF-643 KB)</span></a></div></div></div></div></div> <p><strong>Sufficient testing capacity is widely recognized as critical to managing COVID-19</strong> and minimizing further outbreaks, as noted by the World Health Organization. Testing enables the quick identification, management, and isolation of COVID-19 patients. As a result, many countries have prioritized COVID-19 testing in the last six months and have increased it by orders of magnitude.</p> <div data-component="mdc-c-module-wrapper" data-module-theme="light" data-module-background="lightest-grey" data-module-category="" data-module-gradient-position="bottom-right" class="mck-c-inline-module-container SideBar_mck-c-sidebar__bgimg-wrapper__Qj4Dt mck-o-sm-left-span SideBar_mck-c-sidebar__sidebar-wrapper__Dpjw2 SideBar_mck-c-sidebar__sidebar-wrapper--istablet__IQ6ii mck-u-screen-only mck-c-module-wrapper" data-layer-region="sidebar"><div class="SideBar_mck-c-sidebar__epoAm mck-o-md-center"><div class="SideBar_mck-c-sidebar__share-icons-wrapper__9gB_c"><div data-component="mdc-c-link-container" class="mdc-c-link-container___xefGu_2734c4f mdc-c-link-container--display-column___X0HDD_2734c4f SideBar_mck-c-sidebar__share-icons___eQy6"><div data-component="mdc-c-dropdown-menu" class="mdc-c-drop-down"><button data-component="mdc-c-button" aria-label="" type="button" id="button_id" class="mdc-c-button___U4iY2_2734c4f mdc-c-button--ghost mdc-c-button--size-medium mdc-c-drop-down__rootmenu___yJzvz_2734c4f" aria-expanded="false" aria-haspopup="menu"><span data-component="mdc-c-icon" class="mdc-c-icon___oi7ef_2734c4f mdc-c-icon--default___f-hQM_2734c4f mdc-c-icon--size-md___yi5fA_2734c4f mck-share2-icon"></span></button><div data-component="mdc-c-module-wrapper" data-module-theme="light" data-module-background="white" data-module-category="" class=""></div></div><button data-component="mdc-c-button" aria-label="Expandable Sidebar" type="button" id="button_id" class="mdc-c-button___U4iY2_2734c4f mdc-c-button--ghost mdc-c-button--size-medium SideBar_mck-c-sidebar__toggle-btn__EL8iE" aria-expanded="false" data-layer-event-prefix="UI Item" data-layer-action="click" data-layer-category="sidebar" data-layer-subcategory="open" data-layer-text="open sidebar"><span data-component="mdc-c-icon" class="mdc-c-icon___oi7ef_2734c4f mdc-c-icon--radial___y3csX_2734c4f mdc-c-icon--size-xxl___cL3ZT_2734c4f mck-plus-no-circle-icon"></span></button></div></div><div class="SideBar_mck-c-sidebar__content-outer__UdWCq"><div class="SideBar_mck-c-sidebar__eyebrow__5GSEq"></div><div class="SideBar_mck-c-sidebar__content__raEwe"><h2 data-component="mdc-c-heading" class="mdc-c-heading___0fM1W_2734c4f mdc-u-ts-3 SideBar_mck-c-sidebar__content-heading__NJekY"><div>Disclaimer</div></h2><div class="SideBar_mck-c-sidebar__content-description__4p9iI mdc-u-ts-7"><div class="mdc-o-content-body"><p>These materials are being provided on an accelerated basis in response to the COVID-19 crisis. These materials reflect general insight based on currently available information, which has not been independently verified and is inherently uncertain. Future results may differ materially from any statements of expectation, forecasts or projections. These materials are not a guarantee of results and cannot be relied upon. These materials do not constitute legal, medical, policy, or other regulated advice and do not contain all the information needed to determine a future course of action. Given the uncertainty surrounding COVID-19, these materials are provided “as is” solely for information purposes without any representation or warranty, and all liability is expressly disclaimed. References to specific products or organizations are solely for illustration and do not constitute any endorsement or recommendation. The recipient remains solely responsible for all decisions, use of these materials, and compliance with applicable laws, rules, regulations, and standards. Consider seeking advice of legal and other relevant certified/licensed experts prior to taking any specific steps.</p></div></div></div></div></div></div> <p>Yet stakeholders around the globe are now preparing for an even larger challenge. With the onset of the winter and accompanying 2020–21 flu season, the demand for COVID-19 testing might increase threefold over the testing that has been performed in the summer months of 2020 (Exhibit 1), whether we see a second wave of virus infection or not.</p> <div data-component="mdc-c-module-wrapper" data-module-theme="default" data-module-background="transparent" data-module-category="" class="mck-c-inline-module-container mck-o-md-center"><div class="mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-gutter-lg mdc-u-grid-col-sm-1 mdc-u-grid--align-start mdc-u-mb-3 GenericItem_mck-c-generic-item__sGwKL"><div data-component="mdc-c-content-block" class="mdc-c-content-block___7p6Lu_2734c4f mdc-u-grid-gutter-xs GenericItem_mck-c-generic-item__content__gq1m0"><div class="mck-c-eyebrow mdc-u-ts-10"><span> 1</span></div></div></div><div class="mck-u-inline-module-border-top mck-u-inline-module-border-bottom"><picture data-component="mdc-c-picture" class="Exhibit_mck-c-exhibit__image__pyIDm"><source media="(min-width: 768px)" srcSet="/~/media/mckinsey/industries/healthcare%20systems%20and%20services/our%20insights/winter%20is%20coming%20whats%20next%20in%20covid%2019%20testing/svg_wintercoming_exhibit1.svgz?cq=50&cpy=Center"/><img alt="The height, curve, and peak of influenza rates can vary each year." src="/~/media/mckinsey/industries/healthcare%20systems%20and%20services/our%20insights/winter%20is%20coming%20whats%20next%20in%20covid%2019%20testing/svg_wintercoming_exhibit1.svgz?cq=50&cpy=Center" loading="lazy"/></picture></div><div class="mck-u-sr-only"></div></div> <p>Countries still have time to prepare for this increase in demand. However, they will have to expend substantial effort and agility, with a large amount of flexibility, to prepare for all possible scenarios that might arise in the winter months.</p> <p>We identify two focus areas for countries and their governments to prepare their test capacity for the winter:</p> <ol> <li>Scaling up testing capacity</li> <li>Organizing for success</li> </ol> <h2>The importance of sufficient test capacity</h2> <p>As we discussed in “<a href="/capabilities/strategy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/safeguarding-our-lives-and-our-livelihoods-the-imperative-of-our-time">Safeguarding our lives and our livelihoods: The imperative of our time</a>,” an effective COVID-19 strategy includes containing outbreaks, protecting high-risk groups, safeguarding vital parts of the economy, and—if required—providing a sense of security and comfort. This strategy sounds simple, but is surprisingly complex to implement. Luckily, stakeholders can learn to handle all aspects from practices around the world (Exhibit 2).</p> <h3>Containing outbreaks</h3> <p>It is imperative to effectively and efficiently identify micro-outbreaks early. To do so requires a testing capacity and contact-tracing infrastructure that could be rapidly applied to a single region. Examples of success in testing/contact tracing include slaughterhouses in Germany,<span class="FootNote_footnote-holder__tjRqy"><a aria-label="footnote" href="javascript:void(0);" class="FootNote_footnote-wrapper__AIRwL undefined FootNote_inactive__VZfCp" aria-describedby="1e9e876e-be7d-44c3-9dc2-a794e4c79321"><sup class="FootNote_footnotesup__e73z_">1</sup><span class="FootNote_notch-wrapper__b_5NS"><span class="FootNote_notch__omKtY"></span></span><span class="FootNote_tooltip__QtrbA mdc-u-mt-2"><span class="FootNote_footnote-content__r2OVl"><span id="1e9e876e-be7d-44c3-9dc2-a794e4c79321" aria-hidden="true" data-module-theme="light" class="FootNote_footnote-text__VjKgO mck-u-links-inline">Lindhout S, “More than a thousand corona infections in the North Rhine-Westphalia slaughterhouse,” <em>de Volkskrant</em>, June 20, 2020, volkskrant.nl.</span></span></span></a></span> a shopping mall in the Netherlands,<span class="FootNote_footnote-holder__tjRqy"><a aria-label="footnote" href="javascript:void(0);" class="FootNote_footnote-wrapper__AIRwL undefined FootNote_inactive__VZfCp" aria-describedby="62c3a486-39fa-4003-a48f-22b07a04c9af"><sup class="FootNote_footnotesup__e73z_">2</sup><span class="FootNote_notch-wrapper__b_5NS"><span class="FootNote_notch__omKtY"></span></span><span class="FootNote_tooltip__QtrbA mdc-u-mt-2"><span class="FootNote_footnote-content__r2OVl"><span id="62c3a486-39fa-4003-a48f-22b07a04c9af" aria-hidden="true" data-module-theme="light" class="FootNote_footnote-text__VjKgO mck-u-links-inline">NOS News, “Bijenkorf Amsterdam closed; corona test advised for visitors with complaints,” NOS, August 18, 2020, nos.nl.</span></span></span></a></span> and a nightclub in South Korea.<span class="FootNote_footnote-holder__tjRqy"><a aria-label="footnote" href="javascript:void(0);" class="FootNote_footnote-wrapper__AIRwL undefined FootNote_inactive__VZfCp" aria-describedby="71fb146f-16d8-47a6-b16e-532a87b249a1"><sup class="FootNote_footnotesup__e73z_">3</sup><span class="FootNote_notch-wrapper__b_5NS"><span class="FootNote_notch__omKtY"></span></span><span class="FootNote_tooltip__QtrbA mdc-u-mt-2"><span class="FootNote_footnote-content__r2OVl"><span id="71fb146f-16d8-47a6-b16e-532a87b249a1" aria-hidden="true" data-module-theme="light" class="FootNote_footnote-text__VjKgO mck-u-links-inline">Gunia A, “What South Korea’s nightclub coronavirus outbreak can teach other countries as they reopen,” <em>Time</em>, May 12, 2020, time.com.</span></span></span></a></span> When a large number of visitors, employees, or people in these particular communities contracted COVID-19, extensive testing of visitors and employees was used to isolate positive cases and thereby curb further infections.</p> <div data-component="mdc-c-module-wrapper" data-module-theme="default" data-module-background="transparent" data-module-category="" class="mck-c-disruptor1up mck-o-md-center mck-u-inline-module-border-top mck-u-inline-module-border-bottom mck-u-screen-only" data-layer-region="disruptor-1up"><div class="mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-gutter-md mdc-u-grid-col-lg-12 mdc-u-grid-col-md-12 "><div class="mdc-u-grid-col-md-span-12"><header data-component="mdc-c-header" class="mdc-c-header"><div class="mdc-c-header__block___i1Lg-_2734c4f"><h3 data-component="mdc-c-heading" class="mdc-c-heading___0fM1W_2734c4f"><div>Would you like to learn more about our <a href="/industries/healthcare/how-we-help-clients">Healthcare Systems & Services Practice</a>?</div></h3></div></header></div></div></div> <h3>Protecting high-risk groups</h3> <p>Highly vulnerable groups and groups of people that are highly exposed to the virus require additional focus and support. Long-term care facilities or care homes could consider the regular testing of residents and staff, including those who are asymptomatic. In Denmark, additional and regular testing of nursing home personnel and residents proved highly successful in containing outbreaks of COVID-19.<span class="FootNote_footnote-holder__tjRqy"><a aria-label="footnote" href="javascript:void(0);" class="FootNote_footnote-wrapper__AIRwL undefined FootNote_inactive__VZfCp" aria-describedby="7f0d70c7-7d18-4756-80f2-3ec8fde845f7"><sup class="FootNote_footnotesup__e73z_">4</sup><span class="FootNote_notch-wrapper__b_5NS"><span class="FootNote_notch__omKtY"></span></span><span class="FootNote_tooltip__QtrbA mdc-u-mt-2"><span class="FootNote_footnote-content__r2OVl"><span id="7f0d70c7-7d18-4756-80f2-3ec8fde845f7" aria-hidden="true" data-module-theme="light" class="FootNote_footnote-text__VjKgO mck-u-links-inline">“Test and infection detection,” Politi, 2020, politi.dk.</span></span></span></a></span></p> <h3>Employing additional safety precautions for essential workers</h3> <p>Essential workers have a valuable role in society—from giving people access to food and healthcare to ensuring the economy can run. Regular and asymptomatic testing would provide an extra safety barrier for those workers. Examples include successful testing of public transport officials and supermarket personnel in parts of the United Kingdom and United States, and isolation of positive cases.</p> <h3>Basing policy decisions on facts</h3> <p>If an outbreak causes paralysis in society or the economy, sometimes testing large parts of the asymptomatic population can help to rebuild trust. Widespread testing also provides the data on which to base policy decisions. Examples include China’s widespread testing in Wuhan and Luxembourg’s population-wide sampling.</p> <div data-component="mdc-c-module-wrapper" data-module-theme="default" data-module-background="transparent" data-module-category="" class="mck-c-inline-module-container mck-o-md-center"><div class="mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-gutter-lg mdc-u-grid-col-sm-1 mdc-u-grid--align-start mdc-u-mb-3 GenericItem_mck-c-generic-item__sGwKL"><div data-component="mdc-c-content-block" class="mdc-c-content-block___7p6Lu_2734c4f mdc-u-grid-gutter-xs GenericItem_mck-c-generic-item__content__gq1m0"><div class="mck-c-eyebrow mdc-u-ts-10"><span> 2</span></div></div></div><div class="mck-u-inline-module-border-top mck-u-inline-module-border-bottom"><picture data-component="mdc-c-picture" class="Exhibit_mck-c-exhibit__image__pyIDm"><source media="(min-width: 768px)" srcSet="/~/media/mckinsey/industries/healthcare%20systems%20and%20services/our%20insights/winter%20is%20coming%20whats%20next%20in%20covid%2019%20testing/svg_wintercoming_exhibit2.svgz?cq=50&cpy=Center"/><img alt="Testing strategy for COVID-19 can be optimized." src="/~/media/mckinsey/industries/healthcare%20systems%20and%20services/our%20insights/winter%20is%20coming%20whats%20next%20in%20covid%2019%20testing/svg_wintercoming_exhibit2.svgz?cq=50&cpy=Center" loading="lazy"/></picture></div><div class="mck-u-sr-only"></div></div> <p>One conclusion that arises from this comparison is that all testing goals require fast results and widespread availability to ramp up capacity quickly. Not surprisingly, these two requirements are possible only if testing capacity exceeds demand. Given that we expect to see a sharp increase in demand<span class="FootNote_footnote-holder__tjRqy"><a aria-label="footnote" href="javascript:void(0);" class="FootNote_footnote-wrapper__AIRwL undefined FootNote_inactive__VZfCp" aria-describedby="2b0f1e27-8241-44e0-8a1d-2e1d9315d8d9"><sup class="FootNote_footnotesup__e73z_">5</sup><span class="FootNote_notch-wrapper__b_5NS"><span class="FootNote_notch__omKtY"></span></span><span class="FootNote_tooltip__QtrbA mdc-u-mt-2"><span class="FootNote_footnote-content__r2OVl"><span id="2b0f1e27-8241-44e0-8a1d-2e1d9315d8d9" aria-hidden="true" data-module-theme="light" class="FootNote_footnote-text__VjKgO mck-u-links-inline">See Exhibit 1.</span></span></span></a></span> in winter, it is essential countries come up with a way to scale up capacity quickly and avoid having to restrict testing.</p> <h2>The next challenge: Winter is coming</h2> <p>In winter, demand for tests in the Northern Hemisphere is expected to increase drastically. Counterintuitively, COVID-19 incidence itself is not expected to be the main driver of the need for increased COVID testing. Rather, the most significant factor is the recurring increase of other respiratory diseases and influenza-like symptoms in the colder winter months. These illnesses historically have had much larger penetration in the population, even when compared with COVID-19 at its peak.</p> <p>The peak incidence of flu-like symptoms in a population is, on average, three times higher in the winter than in the spring (Exhibit 1).<span class="FootNote_footnote-holder__tjRqy"><a aria-label="footnote" href="javascript:void(0);" class="FootNote_footnote-wrapper__AIRwL undefined FootNote_inactive__VZfCp" aria-describedby="07506f63-aa56-4ff5-93f2-4e453aa7ae6c"><sup class="FootNote_footnotesup__e73z_">6</sup><span class="FootNote_notch-wrapper__b_5NS"><span class="FootNote_notch__omKtY"></span></span><span class="FootNote_tooltip__QtrbA mdc-u-mt-2"><span class="FootNote_footnote-content__r2OVl"><span id="07506f63-aa56-4ff5-93f2-4e453aa7ae6c" aria-hidden="true" data-module-theme="light" class="FootNote_footnote-text__VjKgO mck-u-links-inline">This peak incidence is if countries test all symptomatic people at a given moment in time.</span></span></span></a></span> Since COVID-19 and the flu present with similar symptoms, more suspected “symptomatic cases” will require a COVID-19 test. With increased concern about a second wave, we also see many people in Europe who wanted to get tested with lighter symptoms. Moreover, as people grow concerned about their flu-like symptoms, a non-positive test on COVID-19 might still require further polymerase chain reaction (PCR) testing—either to reaffirm that it is not COVID-19 or to identify what virus is present.</p> <p>A key challenge in predicting the demand for testing lies in the fact that the peak of the annual influenza outbreak differs from year to year. This year, the public health restrictions countries apply to contain COVID-19 also may cause a significantly decreased spread of the flu. For example, Australia saw a six-fold decrease in flu from January until June, their winter months, when the tightest lockdown measures were in place, admittedly from a high base year.<span class="FootNote_footnote-holder__tjRqy"><a aria-label="footnote" href="javascript:void(0);" class="FootNote_footnote-wrapper__AIRwL undefined FootNote_inactive__VZfCp" aria-describedby="6e4f4304-aa40-49de-99a8-5ea9389fd9a0"><sup class="FootNote_footnotesup__e73z_">7</sup><span class="FootNote_notch-wrapper__b_5NS"><span class="FootNote_notch__omKtY"></span></span><span class="FootNote_tooltip__QtrbA mdc-u-mt-2"><span class="FootNote_footnote-content__r2OVl"><span id="6e4f4304-aa40-49de-99a8-5ea9389fd9a0" aria-hidden="true" data-module-theme="light" class="FootNote_footnote-text__VjKgO mck-u-links-inline">Scott S and Edmonds C, “Flu deaths drop in Australia as coronavirus restrictions save hundreds of lives,” ABC News, July 22, 2020, abc.net.au</span></span></span></a></span></p> <p>In the peak flu year of 2017–18, flu-like symptoms were more than five times higher in the winter than in the spring.<span class="FootNote_footnote-holder__tjRqy"><a aria-label="footnote" href="javascript:void(0);" class="FootNote_footnote-wrapper__AIRwL undefined FootNote_inactive__VZfCp" aria-describedby="22df0170-0f36-49c8-926e-23adb7392f00"><sup class="FootNote_footnotesup__e73z_">8</sup><span class="FootNote_notch-wrapper__b_5NS"><span class="FootNote_notch__omKtY"></span></span><span class="FootNote_tooltip__QtrbA mdc-u-mt-2"><span class="FootNote_footnote-content__r2OVl"><span id="22df0170-0f36-49c8-926e-23adb7392f00" aria-hidden="true" data-module-theme="light" class="FootNote_footnote-text__VjKgO mck-u-links-inline">See Exhibit 1.</span></span></span></a></span> Simply put: in the upcoming flu season, it is not known when the peak will hit or how high it could go. Some Northern Hemisphere countries could be hit while they are still fighting to contain the first wave of COVID-19. Decision makers may want to consider a strategy to prepare for a wide variety of possible peaks that takes these factors into account.</p>  <h2>1. Scaling-up testing capacity</h2> <p>Over the past several months, laboratories and other players in the diagnostic chain have shown dedication and resilience to scale up their capacity. The increase in capacity, however, was mostly linear, including adding more machines, materials, or people. This scale up was frequently accomplished by working late hours or deprioritizing other diagnostics—which are quick fixes, rather than sustainable solutions. As we discussed “<a href="/industries/healthcare/our-insights/understanding-and-managing-the-hidden-health-crisis-of-covid-19-in-europe">Understanding and managing the hidden health crisis of COVID-19 in Europe</a>,” health systems across Europe canceled or postponed tens of thousands of elective procedures and outpatient appointments in spring 2020.</p> <p>Countries are challenged to create exponential growth in testing capacity, while simultaneously refraining from putting unsustainable pressure on the regular diagnostics. We describe four opportunities below to meet this challenge: improvements in productivity, the use of sample pooling, the use of multiplexing, and the adoption of creative testing methods.</p> <h3>Productivity improvements</h3> <p>Various manufacturing industries operate at significantly higher Overall Equipment Effectiveness (OEE) than medical labs. By distilling best practices from other industries, medical labs could improve productivity substantially and decrease workload for their people. Potential improvement areas include optimizing machine-run schedules with working hours, more careful planning to fully load sample plates (to avoid waste of materials), better ergonomics, and increasing machine utilization through further automation, in particular of pre-analytical work.</p> <p>Experience shows that even if productivity improvements are well known, realizing them requires capabilities that are uncommon in many labs. On top of that, medical labs currently involved in COVID-19 testing often have challenges finding the right professionals. Labs could consider changing culture and behaviors in their organizations while ensuring the additional COVID-19 demand does not interfere with (or is not hampered by) regular processes. These labs also are working on maintaining the highest quality, while under extreme pressure caused by the crisis.</p> <h3>Sample pooling</h3> <p>Sample pooling is the practice of combining samples from multiple patients in one tube and treating it as a single sample during the testing process (Exhibit 3). If the test turns out negative (no COVID-19), all patients are diagnosed negative. If the test is positive, all samples need to be retested individually (leading to additional use of supplies and machine capacity). The efficiency gain is therefore dependent on the positive test rate of the patients and the pooling batch size.</p> <div data-component="mdc-c-module-wrapper" data-module-theme="default" data-module-background="transparent" data-module-category="" class="mck-c-inline-module-container mck-o-md-center"><div class="mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-gutter-lg mdc-u-grid-col-sm-1 mdc-u-grid--align-start mdc-u-mb-3 GenericItem_mck-c-generic-item__sGwKL"><div data-component="mdc-c-content-block" class="mdc-c-content-block___7p6Lu_2734c4f mdc-u-grid-gutter-xs GenericItem_mck-c-generic-item__content__gq1m0"><div class="mck-c-eyebrow mdc-u-ts-10"><span> 3</span></div></div></div><div class="mck-u-inline-module-border-top mck-u-inline-module-border-bottom"><picture data-component="mdc-c-picture" class="Exhibit_mck-c-exhibit__image__pyIDm"><source media="(min-width: 768px)" srcSet="/~/media/mckinsey/industries/healthcare%20systems%20and%20services/our%20insights/winter%20is%20coming%20whats%20next%20in%20covid%2019%20testing/svg_wintercoming_exhibit3.svgz?cq=50&cpy=Center"/><img alt="In pool testing, samples from individuals are tested together, requiring careful processing." src="/~/media/mckinsey/industries/healthcare%20systems%20and%20services/our%20insights/winter%20is%20coming%20whats%20next%20in%20covid%2019%20testing/svg_wintercoming_exhibit3.svgz?cq=50&cpy=Center" loading="lazy"/></picture></div><div class="mck-u-sr-only"></div></div> <p>As an example, Germany currently has a positive test rate of less than 2 percent.<span class="FootNote_footnote-holder__tjRqy"><a aria-label="footnote" href="javascript:void(0);" class="FootNote_footnote-wrapper__AIRwL undefined FootNote_inactive__VZfCp" aria-describedby="15c67c8e-6ac8-4994-a4fb-e7e9c26dd1e4"><sup class="FootNote_footnotesup__e73z_">9</sup><span class="FootNote_notch-wrapper__b_5NS"><span class="FootNote_notch__omKtY"></span></span><span class="FootNote_tooltip__QtrbA mdc-u-mt-2"><span class="FootNote_footnote-content__r2OVl"><span id="15c67c8e-6ac8-4994-a4fb-e7e9c26dd1e4" aria-hidden="true" data-module-theme="light" class="FootNote_footnote-text__VjKgO mck-u-links-inline">Roser M et al., “Coronavirus (COVID-19) Testing,” Our World in Data, 2020, ourworldindata.org.</span></span></span></a></span> Using a pooling batch size of 7 or 8 would lead to almost four times the effectiveness of current capacity, with a small sacrifice in sensitivity (which experts note is not clinically significant).</p> <p>Pooling is considered to be one of the safest ways to increase testing capacity rapidly. To implement pooling successfully, stakeholders could consider focusing on a limited set of larger labs that are used to processing high volumes with automated capabilities and, ideally, with pooling experience.</p> <h3>Multiplexing</h3> <p>Multiplex testing allows one patient sample to be tested for multiple indications at the same time (for example, a combination influenza flu A and B virus, respiratory syncytial virus, COVID-19). Especially with the upcoming flu season, multiplexing could be important: it can take away the confusion of a COVID-19 or influenza diagnosis with one test and thus allow labs to process more tests in a given period. However, it does require machine capacity and specific assay.</p> <h3>Innovative testing methods</h3> <p>New tests could truly transform the diagnostic landscape. A variety of options exists that could be dramatically easier, faster, and cheaper to administer. The highly sensitive PCR test is seen worldwide as the gold standard. However, it is also relatively expensive and virtually all versions require a lab.</p> <p>Other tests with different characteristics are under development. A much cheaper test (perhaps slightly less sensitive but still preferably with very few false negatives) would provide widespread screening and catch asymptomatic or pre-symptomatic patients. A non-lab-driven test could make tests accessible in many more locations. In a clinical setting, the overall sensitivity and accuracy of PCR would still be preferred. This means that additional communication and stratified testing methods should be used for different populations—which would introduce complexity.</p> <p>Opening economies could depend not only on the availability of testing, but also on quick results indicating whether a person is contagious or not. Public health testing and lower sensitivity could get equally good results if applied in very high frequency, as in daily testing. This kind of testing would require easily available, fast, and extremely inexpensive tests.</p> <p>It is worth noting, however, that in a clinical setting the overall sensitivity and accuracy of PCR would still be preferred. This preference means that additional communication and stratified testing methods should be used for different populations, although doing so introduces complexity.</p> <p>Such testing methods are rapidly being developed. These methods include the use of saliva instead of a respiratory swab, isothermal amplification instead of PCR (for example, in the loop-mediated isothermal amplification [LAMP] protocol), and antigen instead of genetic tests. There also is the hope for a paper strip-based test, as well as methods based on Raman-spectroscopy, breath, and more.<span class="FootNote_footnote-holder__tjRqy"><a aria-label="footnote" href="javascript:void(0);" class="FootNote_footnote-wrapper__AIRwL undefined FootNote_inactive__VZfCp" aria-describedby="94ca975b-f35a-4e17-9a61-0517f27c0bd1"><sup class="FootNote_footnotesup__e73z_">10</sup><span class="FootNote_notch-wrapper__b_5NS"><span class="FootNote_notch__omKtY"></span></span><span class="FootNote_tooltip__QtrbA mdc-u-mt-2"><span class="FootNote_footnote-content__r2OVl"><span id="94ca975b-f35a-4e17-9a61-0517f27c0bd1" aria-hidden="true" data-module-theme="light" class="FootNote_footnote-text__VjKgO mck-u-links-inline">Vogels C et al., “SalivaDirect: Simple and sensitive molecular diagnostic test for SARS-CoV-2 surveillance,” <em>medRxiv</em> preprint, August 4, 2020, medrxiv.org.</span></span></span></a></span><span class="FootNote_footnote-holder__tjRqy"><a aria-label="footnote" href="javascript:void(0);" class="FootNote_footnote-wrapper__AIRwL undefined FootNote_inactive__VZfCp" aria-describedby="470a227b-0112-4575-a084-4e9a9f49b54a"><sup class="FootNote_footnotesup__e73z_">11</sup><span class="FootNote_notch-wrapper__b_5NS"><span class="FootNote_notch__omKtY"></span></span><span class="FootNote_tooltip__QtrbA mdc-u-mt-2"><span class="FootNote_footnote-content__r2OVl"><span id="470a227b-0112-4575-a084-4e9a9f49b54a" aria-hidden="true" data-module-theme="light" class="FootNote_footnote-text__VjKgO mck-u-links-inline">Lalli M et al., “Rapid and extraction-free detection of SARS-CoV-2 from saliva with colorimetric LAMP,” <em>medRxiv</em> preprint, May 11, 2020, medrxiv.org.</span></span></span></a></span></p> <p>Governments may choose to take an active role in introducing these technologies to the market. Potential support models include access to testing samples, accelerated certification trajectories, upfront investments, and even operational coordination across academia, labs, developers, and industrial suppliers and, potentially, in investment across borders. Some testing technologies have been proven in the lab, but will require an extraordinary investment to make them available at industrial scale in the course of months rather than years. These tests could make a major difference in limiting the virus spread this winter when vaccines will not be widely available. New tests could fill that period of time.</p> <div data-component="mdc-c-module-wrapper" data-module-theme="default" data-module-background="transparent" data-module-category="" class="mck-c-disruptor1up mck-o-md-center mck-u-inline-module-border-top mck-u-inline-module-border-bottom mck-u-screen-only" data-layer-region="disruptor-1up"><div class="mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-gutter-md mdc-u-grid-col-lg-12 mdc-u-grid-col-md-12 "><div class="mdc-u-grid-col-lg-span-4 mdc-u-grid-col-md-span-5 Disruptor1Up_mck-c-disruptor1up__image___2Gc4"><picture data-component="mdc-c-picture"><img alt="Understanding the hidden costs of COVID-19’s potential impact on US healthcare" src="/~/media/mckinsey/industries/healthcare%20systems%20and%20services/our%20insights/understanding%20the%20hidden%20costs%20of%20covid%2019s%20potential%20impact%20on%20us%20healthcare/standard-understanding-layers-119651215.png?cq=50&mh=145&car=16:9&cpy=Center" loading="lazy"/></picture></div><div class="mdc-u-grid-col-lg-span-8 mdc-u-grid-col-md-span-7"><header data-component="mdc-c-header" class="mdc-c-header"><div class="mdc-c-header__block___i1Lg-_2734c4f"><h3 data-component="mdc-c-heading" class="mdc-c-heading___0fM1W_2734c4f"><div>Understanding the hidden costs of COVID-19’s potential impact on US healthcare</div></h3></div></header><div data-component="mdc-c-link-container" class="mdc-c-link-container___xefGu_2734c4f mdc-c-link-container--display-column___X0HDD_2734c4f mck-c-disruptor1up__content Disruptor1Up_mck-c-disruptor1up__content--links__VV4lE mdc-u-grid-gutter-md"><a data-component="mdc-c-link" href="/industries/healthcare/our-insights/understanding-the-hidden-costs-of-covid-19s-potential-impact-on-us-healthcare" class="mdc-c-link-cta___NBQVi_2734c4f"><span class="mdc-c-link__label___Pfqtd_2734c4f">Read the article</span><span data-component="mdc-c-icon" class="mdc-c-icon___oi7ef_2734c4f mck-link-arrow-right-icon"></span></a></div></div></div></div> <h2>2. Organizing for success</h2> <p>To successfully organize increased capacity, strong governance is key. Currently, in many countries, the roles and responsibilities along the diagnostic chain are highly fragmented, which means central coordination is truly cumbersome in times of (peak) crisis. We see the following ways to organize for success.</p> <h3>End-to-end transparency</h3> <p>Create a holistic overview of key performance indicators (Exhibit 4) that show the relationships in the diagnostic chain from the moment a person is infected until the last possible moment an infection can occur.</p> <div data-component="mdc-c-module-wrapper" data-module-theme="default" data-module-background="transparent" data-module-category="" class="mck-c-inline-module-container mck-o-md-center"><div class="mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-gutter-lg mdc-u-grid-col-sm-1 mdc-u-grid--align-start mdc-u-mb-3 GenericItem_mck-c-generic-item__sGwKL"><div data-component="mdc-c-content-block" class="mdc-c-content-block___7p6Lu_2734c4f mdc-u-grid-gutter-xs GenericItem_mck-c-generic-item__content__gq1m0"><div class="mck-c-eyebrow mdc-u-ts-10"><span> 4</span></div></div></div><div class="mck-u-inline-module-border-top mck-u-inline-module-border-bottom"><picture data-component="mdc-c-picture" class="Exhibit_mck-c-exhibit__image__pyIDm"><source media="(min-width: 768px)" srcSet="/~/media/mckinsey/industries/healthcare%20systems%20and%20services/our%20insights/winter%20is%20coming%20whats%20next%20in%20covid%2019%20testing/svg-wintercoming_exhibit4-v3.svgz?cq=50&cpy=Center"/><img alt="KPI dashboards can track readiness and help prepare in end-to-end processing." src="/~/media/mckinsey/industries/healthcare%20systems%20and%20services/our%20insights/winter%20is%20coming%20whats%20next%20in%20covid%2019%20testing/svg-wintercoming_exhibit4-v3.svgz?cq=50&cpy=Center" loading="lazy"/></picture></div><div class="mck-u-sr-only"></div></div> <h3>Dedicated operational control</h3> <p>Build a <a href="/industries/healthcare/our-insights/winning-the-local-covid-19-war">nerve center</a> to centrally coordinate the end-to-end testing process (Exhibit 5).</p> <div data-component="mdc-c-module-wrapper" data-module-theme="default" data-module-background="transparent" data-module-category="" class="mck-c-inline-module-container mck-o-md-center"><div class="mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-gutter-lg mdc-u-grid-col-sm-1 mdc-u-grid--align-start mdc-u-mb-3 GenericItem_mck-c-generic-item__sGwKL"><div data-component="mdc-c-content-block" class="mdc-c-content-block___7p6Lu_2734c4f mdc-u-grid-gutter-xs GenericItem_mck-c-generic-item__content__gq1m0"><div class="mck-c-eyebrow mdc-u-ts-10"><span> 5</span></div></div></div><div class="mck-u-inline-module-border-top mck-u-inline-module-border-bottom"><picture data-component="mdc-c-picture" class="Exhibit_mck-c-exhibit__image__pyIDm"><source media="(min-width: 768px)" srcSet="/~/media/mckinsey/industries/healthcare%20systems%20and%20services/our%20insights/winter%20is%20coming%20whats%20next%20in%20covid%2019%20testing/svg_wintercoming_exhibit5.svgz?cq=50&cpy=Center"/><img alt="Testing is part of a broader end-to-end process that needs to be monitored to reduce the spread of COVID-19." src="/~/media/mckinsey/industries/healthcare%20systems%20and%20services/our%20insights/winter%20is%20coming%20whats%20next%20in%20covid%2019%20testing/svg_wintercoming_exhibit5.svgz?cq=50&cpy=Center" loading="lazy"/></picture></div><div class="mck-u-sr-only"></div></div> <p>Clear roles and responsibilities. Make sure that roles and responsibilities are clear along the diagnostic chain—and that the variety of parties can be held accountable. This accountability is needed to decrease the risk of responsibilities falling between the cracks when pressure is put on the system.</p> <h3>Aligned financial incentives</h3> <p>Create a strategy for financial compensation of COVID-19 testing. Although compensation depends on the country’s specific regulatory and financing systems, some common considerations exist. Typically, labs are compensated on a per-test basis. However, in the run up to the winter, labs are asked to ramp up their capacity in anticipation of an uncertain demand. Therefore, compensation schemes with fair risk-sharing should be created. For example, one could compensate a lab for having capacity ready, in the same way firefighters are compensated—not by the number of fires they extinguish, but by their ready capacity to do so.</p> <h3>Early investments in innovation</h3> <p>Stakeholders may want to evaluate how innovative testing methods take time to develop and validate. It is challenging to speed up this process at will or fully at risk. Therefore, early decision making and technological investments by governments or government consortia are crucial to create the opportunity for the long-term impact that can stem from these innovations.</p> <hr/> <p>The first wave of COVID-19 has taught us that responding to the crisis early and decisively acting is essential. Winter is coming, and it is increasingly clear that testing can help us unlock our lives and our economies faster and more confidently. Therefore, we expect that investments in innovations—to ensure both an intelligent testing strategy and a strong governance system—are vital.</p> <p>The lessons we have learned from the past months can help guide us—and support our ability to mitigate, or even prevent, a second wave.</p></div><div class="container-placeholder"></div></div></div><div class="mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-gutter-xl"><section role="contentinfo" data-layer-region="article-about-authors" class="mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-col-md-12 AboutAuthor_mck-c-about-author__nRJzu"><div class="mdc-u-grid-col-md-start-2 mdc-u-grid-col-md-end-12 mdc-u-grid-col-lg-start-3 mdc-u-grid-col-lg-end-11"><h5 data-component="mdc-c-heading" class="mdc-c-heading___0fM1W_2734c4f mdc-c-heading--title___5qyOB_2734c4f mdc-c-heading--border___K8dj3_2734c4f mdc-u-align-center"></h5><div data-component="mdc-c-description" class="mdc-c-description___SrnQP_2734c4f mdc-u-ts-8 mck-u-links-inline mck-u-links-inline--secondary 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testing","fields":null,"databaseName":"web","deviceId":"fe5d7fdf-89c0-4d99-9aa3-b5fbd009c9f3","itemId":"cd47e7a3-80e9-4fa7-892f-df5bf4a11a98","itemLanguage":"en","itemVersion":1,"layoutId":"ae753eb4-a035-40b4-83bf-4b4438df6742","templateId":"683910db-02ba-40ba-92e7-726c880160a9","templateName":"ArticleJSS","placeholders":{"jss-main":[{"uid":"232bb7e9-289f-492d-a916-2b6185e44a84","componentName":"ArticleTemplate","dataSource":"","fields":{"data":{"articleTemplate":{"title":{"jsonValue":{"value":"Winter is coming: What\u0026rsquo;s next in COVID-19 testing"}},"sEOTitle":{"value":""},"description":{"jsonValue":{"value":"The upcoming flu season in the Northern Hemisphere is expected to increase demand for COVID-19 testing. Decision makers may ask: Will there be enough flexible testing capacity to respond to global demand and avoid second lockdowns?"}},"sEODescription":{"value":"The upcoming flu season is expected to increase demand for COVID-19 testing. Will there be enough flexible testing capacity to respond to global demand and avoid second lockdowns?"},"displayDate":{"jsonValue":{"value":"2020-09-30T00:00:00Z"}},"body":{"value":"[[DownloadsSidebar]]\n[[MostPopularArticles 3]]\n\n\u003cp \u003e\u003cstrong\u003eSufficient testing capacity is widely recognized as critical to managing COVID-19\u003c/strong\u003e and minimizing further outbreaks, as noted by the World Health Organization. Testing enables the quick identification, management, and isolation of COVID-19 patients. As a result, many countries have prioritized COVID-19 testing in the last six months and have increased it by orders of magnitude.\u003c/p\u003e\n\n[[sidebar 1]]\n\n\u003cp\u003eYet stakeholders around the globe are now preparing for an even larger challenge. With the onset of the winter and accompanying 2020\u0026ndash;21 flu season, the demand for COVID-19 testing might increase threefold over the testing that has been performed in the summer months of 2020 (Exhibit 1), whether we see a second wave of virus infection or not.\u003c/p\u003e\n\n[[exhibit 1]]\n\n\u003cp\u003eCountries still have time to prepare for this increase in demand. However, they will have to expend substantial effort and agility, with a large amount of flexibility, to prepare for all possible scenarios that might arise in the winter months.\u003c/p\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003eWe identify two focus areas for countries and their governments to prepare their test capacity for the winter:\u003c/p\u003e\n\n\u003col\u003e\n\u003cli\u003eScaling up testing capacity\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003cli\u003eOrganizing for success\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003c/ol\u003e\n\n\u003ch2\u003eThe importance of sufficient test capacity\u003c/h2\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003eAs we discussed in \u0026ldquo;\u003ca href=\"/capabilities/strategy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/safeguarding-our-lives-and-our-livelihoods-the-imperative-of-our-time\"\u003eSafeguarding our lives and our livelihoods: The imperative of our time\u003c/a\u003e,\u0026rdquo; an effective COVID-19 strategy includes containing outbreaks, protecting high-risk groups, safeguarding vital parts of the economy, and\u0026mdash;if required\u0026mdash;providing a sense of security and comfort. This strategy sounds simple, but is surprisingly complex to implement. Luckily, stakeholders can learn to handle all aspects from practices around the world (Exhibit 2).\u003c/p\u003e\n\n\u003ch3\u003eContaining outbreaks\u003c/h3\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003eIt is imperative to effectively and efficiently identify micro-outbreaks early. To do so requires a testing capacity and contact-tracing infrastructure that could be rapidly applied to a single region. Examples of success in testing/contact tracing include slaughterhouses in Germany,[[footnote 1]] a shopping mall in the Netherlands,[[footnote 2]] and a nightclub in South Korea.[[footnote 3]] When a large number of visitors, employees, or people in these particular communities contracted COVID-19, extensive testing of visitors and employees was used to isolate positive cases and thereby curb further infections.\u003c/p\u003e\n\n[[disruptor1up learnmore]]\n\n\u003ch3\u003eProtecting high-risk groups\u003c/h3\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003eHighly vulnerable groups and groups of people that are highly exposed to the virus require additional focus and support. Long-term care facilities or care homes could consider the regular testing of residents and staff, including those who are asymptomatic. In Denmark, additional and regular testing of nursing home personnel and residents proved highly successful in containing outbreaks of COVID-19.[[footnote 4]]\u003c/p\u003e\n\n\u003ch3\u003eEmploying additional safety precautions for essential workers\u003c/h3\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003eEssential workers have a valuable role in society\u0026mdash;from giving people access to food and healthcare to ensuring the economy can run. Regular and asymptomatic testing would provide an extra safety barrier for those workers. Examples include successful testing of public transport officials and supermarket personnel in parts of the United Kingdom and United States, and isolation of positive cases.\u003c/p\u003e\n\n\u003ch3\u003eBasing policy decisions on facts\u003c/h3\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003eIf an outbreak causes paralysis in society or the economy, sometimes testing large parts of the asymptomatic population can help to rebuild trust. Widespread testing also provides the data on which to base policy decisions. Examples include China\u0026rsquo;s widespread testing in Wuhan and Luxembourg\u0026rsquo;s population-wide sampling.\u003c/p\u003e\n\n[[exhibit 2]]\n\n\u003cp\u003eOne conclusion that arises from this comparison is that all testing goals require fast results and widespread availability to ramp up capacity quickly. Not surprisingly, these two requirements are possible only if testing capacity exceeds demand. Given that we expect to see a sharp increase in demand[[footnote 5]] in winter, it is essential countries come up with a way to scale up capacity quickly and avoid having to restrict testing.\u003c/p\u003e\n\n\u003ch2\u003eThe next challenge: Winter is coming\u003c/h2\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003eIn winter, demand for tests in the Northern Hemisphere is expected to increase drastically. Counterintuitively, COVID-19 incidence itself is not expected to be the main driver of the need for increased COVID testing. Rather, the most significant factor is the recurring increase of other respiratory diseases and influenza-like symptoms in the colder winter months. These illnesses historically have had much larger penetration in the population, even when compared with COVID-19 at its peak.\u003c/p\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003eThe peak incidence of flu-like symptoms in a population is, on average, three times higher in the winter than in the spring (Exhibit 1).[[footnote 6]] Since COVID-19 and the flu present with similar symptoms, more suspected \u0026ldquo;symptomatic cases\u0026rdquo; will require a COVID-19 test. With increased concern about a second wave, we also see many people in Europe who wanted to get tested with lighter symptoms. Moreover, as people grow concerned about their flu-like symptoms, a non-positive test on COVID-19 might still require further polymerase chain reaction (PCR) testing\u0026mdash;either to reaffirm that it is not COVID-19 or to identify what virus is present.\u003c/p\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003eA key challenge in predicting the demand for testing lies in the fact that the peak of the annual influenza outbreak differs from year to year. This year, the public health restrictions countries apply to contain COVID-19 also may cause a significantly decreased spread of the flu. For example, Australia saw a six-fold decrease in flu from January until June, their winter months, when the tightest lockdown measures were in place, admittedly from a high base year.[[footnote 7]]\u003c/p\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003eIn the peak flu year of 2017\u0026ndash;18, flu-like symptoms were more than five times higher in the winter than in the spring.[[footnote 8]] Simply put: in the upcoming flu season, it is not known when the peak will hit or how high it could go. Some Northern Hemisphere countries could be hit while they are still fighting to contain the first wave of COVID-19. Decision makers may want to consider a strategy to prepare for a wide variety of possible peaks that takes these factors into account.\u003c/p\u003e\n\n[[ceros covid]]\n\n\u003ch2\u003e1. Scaling-up testing capacity\u003c/h2\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003eOver the past several months, laboratories and other players in the diagnostic chain have shown dedication and resilience to scale up their capacity. The increase in capacity, however, was mostly linear, including adding more machines, materials, or people. This scale up was frequently accomplished by working late hours or deprioritizing other diagnostics\u0026mdash;which are quick fixes, rather than sustainable solutions. As we discussed \u0026ldquo;\u003ca href=\"/industries/healthcare/our-insights/understanding-and-managing-the-hidden-health-crisis-of-covid-19-in-europe\"\u003eUnderstanding and managing the hidden health crisis of COVID-19 in Europe\u003c/a\u003e,\u0026rdquo; health systems across Europe canceled or postponed tens of thousands of elective procedures and outpatient appointments in spring 2020.\u003c/p\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003eCountries are challenged to create exponential growth in testing capacity, while simultaneously refraining from putting unsustainable pressure on the regular diagnostics. We describe four opportunities below to meet this challenge: improvements in productivity, the use of sample pooling, the use of multiplexing, and the adoption of creative testing methods.\u003c/p\u003e\n\n\u003ch3\u003eProductivity improvements\u003c/h3\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003eVarious manufacturing industries operate at significantly higher Overall Equipment Effectiveness (OEE) than medical labs. By distilling best practices from other industries, medical labs could improve productivity substantially and decrease workload for their people. Potential improvement areas include optimizing machine-run schedules with working hours, more careful planning to fully load sample plates (to avoid waste of materials), better ergonomics, and increasing machine utilization through further automation, in particular of pre-analytical work.\u003c/p\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003eExperience shows that even if productivity improvements are well known, realizing them requires capabilities that are uncommon in many labs. On top of that, medical labs currently involved in COVID-19 testing often have challenges finding the right professionals. Labs could consider changing culture and behaviors in their organizations while ensuring the additional COVID-19 demand does not interfere with (or is not hampered by) regular processes. These labs also are working on maintaining the highest quality, while under extreme pressure caused by the crisis.\u003c/p\u003e\n\n\u003ch3\u003eSample pooling\u003c/h3\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003eSample pooling is the practice of combining samples from multiple patients in one tube and treating it as a single sample during the testing process (Exhibit 3). If the test turns out negative (no COVID-19), all patients are diagnosed negative. If the test is positive, all samples need to be retested individually (leading to additional use of supplies and machine capacity). The efficiency gain is therefore dependent on the positive test rate of the patients and the pooling batch size.\u003c/p\u003e\n\n[[exhibit 3]]\n\n\u003cp\u003eAs an example, Germany currently has a positive test rate of less than 2 percent.[[footnote 9]] Using a pooling batch size of 7 or 8 would lead to almost four times the effectiveness of current capacity, with a small sacrifice in sensitivity (which experts note is not clinically significant).\u003c/p\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003ePooling is considered to be one of the safest ways to increase testing capacity rapidly. To implement pooling successfully, stakeholders could consider focusing on a limited set of larger labs that are used to processing high volumes with automated capabilities and, ideally, with pooling experience.\u003c/p\u003e\n\n\u003ch3\u003eMultiplexing\u003c/h3\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003eMultiplex testing allows one patient sample to be tested for multiple indications at the same time (for example, a combination influenza flu A and B virus, respiratory syncytial virus, COVID-19). Especially with the upcoming flu season, multiplexing could be important: it can take away the confusion of a COVID-19 or influenza diagnosis with one test and thus allow labs to process more tests in a given period. However, it does require machine capacity and specific assay.\u003c/p\u003e\n\n\u003ch3\u003eInnovative testing methods\u003c/h3\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003eNew tests could truly transform the diagnostic landscape. A variety of options exists that could be dramatically easier, faster, and cheaper to administer. The highly sensitive PCR test is seen worldwide as the gold standard. However, it is also relatively expensive and virtually all versions require a lab.\u003c/p\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003eOther tests with different characteristics are under development. A much cheaper test (perhaps slightly less sensitive but still preferably with very few false negatives) would provide widespread screening and catch asymptomatic or pre-symptomatic patients. A non-lab-driven test could make tests accessible in many more locations. In a clinical setting, the overall sensitivity and accuracy of PCR would still be preferred. This means that additional communication and stratified testing methods should be used for different populations\u0026mdash;which would introduce complexity.\u003c/p\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003eOpening economies could depend not only on the availability of testing, but also on quick results indicating whether a person is contagious or not. Public health testing and lower sensitivity could get equally good results if applied in very high frequency, as in daily testing. This kind of testing would require easily available, fast, and extremely inexpensive tests.\u003c/p\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003eIt is worth noting, however, that in a clinical setting the overall sensitivity and accuracy of PCR would still be preferred. This preference means that additional communication and stratified testing methods should be used for different populations, although doing so introduces complexity.\u003c/p\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003eSuch testing methods are rapidly being developed. These methods include the use of saliva instead of a respiratory swab, isothermal amplification instead of PCR (for example, in the loop-mediated isothermal amplification [LAMP] protocol), and antigen instead of genetic tests. There also is the hope for a paper strip-based test, as well as methods based on Raman-spectroscopy, breath, and more.[[footnote 10]][[footnote 11]]\u003c/p\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003eGovernments may choose to take an active role in introducing these technologies to the market. Potential support models include access to testing samples, accelerated certification trajectories, upfront investments, and even operational coordination across academia, labs, developers, and industrial suppliers and, potentially, in investment across borders. Some testing technologies have been proven in the lab, but will require an extraordinary investment to make them available at industrial scale in the course of months rather than years. These tests could make a major difference in limiting the virus spread this winter when vaccines will not be widely available. New tests could fill that period of time.\u003c/p\u003e\n\n[[disruptor1up readnext]]\n\n\u003ch2\u003e2. Organizing for success\u003c/h2\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003eTo successfully organize increased capacity, strong governance is key. Currently, in many countries, the roles and responsibilities along the diagnostic chain are highly fragmented, which means central coordination is truly cumbersome in times of (peak) crisis. We see the following ways to organize for success.\u003c/p\u003e\n\n\u003ch3\u003eEnd-to-end transparency\u003c/h3\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003eCreate a holistic overview of key performance indicators (Exhibit 4) that show the relationships in the diagnostic chain from the moment a person is infected until the last possible moment an infection can occur.\u003c/p\u003e\n\n[[exhibit 4]]\n\n\u003ch3\u003eDedicated operational control\u003c/h3\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003eBuild a \u003ca href=\"/industries/healthcare/our-insights/winning-the-local-covid-19-war\"\u003enerve center\u003c/a\u003e to centrally coordinate the end-to-end testing process (Exhibit 5).\u003c/p\u003e\n\n[[exhibit 5]]\n\n\u003cp\u003eClear roles and responsibilities. Make sure that roles and responsibilities are clear along the diagnostic chain\u0026mdash;and that the variety of parties can be held accountable. This accountability is needed to decrease the risk of responsibilities falling between the cracks when pressure is put on the system.\u003c/p\u003e\n\n\u003ch3\u003eAligned financial incentives\u003c/h3\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003eCreate a strategy for financial compensation of COVID-19 testing. Although compensation depends on the country\u0026rsquo;s specific regulatory and financing systems, some common considerations exist. Typically, labs are compensated on a per-test basis. However, in the run up to the winter, labs are asked to ramp up their capacity in anticipation of an uncertain demand. Therefore, compensation schemes with fair risk-sharing should be created. For example, one could compensate a lab for having capacity ready, in the same way firefighters are compensated\u0026mdash;not by the number of fires they extinguish, but by their ready capacity to do so.\u003c/p\u003e\n\n\u003ch3\u003eEarly investments in innovation\u003c/h3\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003eStakeholders may want to evaluate how innovative testing methods take time to develop and validate. It is challenging to speed up this process at will or fully at risk. Therefore, early decision making and technological investments by governments or government consortia are crucial to create the opportunity for the long-term impact that can stem from these innovations.\u003c/p\u003e\n\n\u003chr /\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003eThe first wave of COVID-19 has taught us that responding to the crisis early and decisively acting is essential. Winter is coming, and it is increasingly clear that testing can help us unlock our lives and our economies faster and more confidently. Therefore, we expect that investments in innovations\u0026mdash;to ensure both an intelligent testing strategy and a strong governance system\u0026mdash;are vital.\u003c/p\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003eThe lessons we have learned from the past months can help guide us\u0026mdash;and support our ability to mitigate, or even prevent, a second wave.\u003c/p\u003e"},"isFullScreenInteractive":{"boolValue":false},"hideStickySocialShareBar":{"boolValue":false},"desktopID":{"value":""},"mobileID":{"value":""},"desktopURL":{"value":""},"mobileURL":{"value":""},"desktopPaddingPercentage":{"value":""},"mobilePaddingPercentage":{"value":""},"desktopOverrideHeight":{"value":""},"mobileOverrideHeight":{"value":""},"cerosOembedURL":{"value":""},"cerosRenderMode":{"targetItem":null},"cerosBackgroundColor":{"targetItem":null},"hideByLine":{"boolValue":false},"tableOfContentsTitle":{"value":"TABLE OF CONTENTS"},"accessStatus":{"targetItem":{"key":{"value":"RegisteredUsers"},"value":{"value":"Registered Users"}}},"articleType":{"targetItem":{"displayName":"Article"}},"hasSpecialReport":{"boolValue":false},"contentType":{"targetItem":{"displayName":"Article"}},"sourcePublication":{"targetItem":null},"externalPublication":{"value":""},"mobileReady":{"boolValue":true},"forClientsOnly":{"boolValue":false},"excludeFromClientLink":{"boolValue":false},"originalPublishDate":{"jsonValue":{"value":"2020-09-30T00:00:00Z"}},"footnotes":{"value":"\u003col\u003e\n \u003cli\u003eLindhout S, \u0026ldquo;More than a thousand corona infections in the North Rhine-Westphalia slaughterhouse,\u0026rdquo; \u003cem\u003ede Volkskrant\u003c/em\u003e, June 20, 2020, volkskrant.nl.\u003c/li\u003e\n \u003cli\u003eNOS News, \u0026ldquo;Bijenkorf Amsterdam closed; corona test advised for visitors with complaints,\u0026rdquo; NOS, August 18, 2020, nos.nl.\u003c/li\u003e\n \u003cli\u003eGunia A, \u0026ldquo;What South Korea\u0026rsquo;s nightclub coronavirus outbreak can teach other countries as they reopen,\u0026rdquo; \u003cem\u003eTime\u003c/em\u003e, May 12, 2020, time.com.\u003c/li\u003e\n \u003cli\u003e\u0026ldquo;Test and infection detection,\u0026rdquo; Politi, 2020, politi.dk.\u003c/li\u003e\n \u003cli\u003eSee Exhibit 1.\u003c/li\u003e\n \u003cli\u003eThis peak incidence is if countries test all symptomatic people at a given moment in time.\u003c/li\u003e\n \u003cli\u003eScott S and Edmonds C, \u0026ldquo;Flu deaths drop in Australia as coronavirus restrictions save hundreds of lives,\u0026rdquo; ABC News, July 22, 2020, abc.net.au\u003c/li\u003e\n \u003cli\u003eSee Exhibit 1.\u003c/li\u003e\n \u003cli\u003eRoser M et al., \u0026ldquo;Coronavirus (COVID-19) Testing,\u0026rdquo; Our World in Data, 2020, ourworldindata.org.\u003c/li\u003e\n \u003cli\u003eVogels C et al., \u0026ldquo;SalivaDirect: Simple and sensitive molecular diagnostic test for SARS-CoV-2 surveillance,\u0026rdquo; \u003cem\u003emedRxiv\u003c/em\u003e preprint, August 4, 2020, medrxiv.org.\u003c/li\u003e\n \u003cli\u003eLalli M et al., \u0026ldquo;Rapid and extraction-free detection of SARS-CoV-2 from saliva with colorimetric LAMP,\u0026rdquo; \u003cem\u003emedRxiv\u003c/em\u003e preprint, May 11, 2020, medrxiv.org.\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003c/ol\u003e"},"contributoryPractice":{"targetItems":[{"displayName":"Healthcare"},{"displayName":"Pharmaceuticals"},{"displayName":"Medical products"},{"displayName":"SHaPE"}]},"aboutTheAuthors":{"value":"\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eDaniel Cramer\u003c/strong\u003e is a solution leader in McKinsey\u0026rsquo;s Amsterdam office, where \u003ca href=\"/our-people/paul-rutten\"\u003e\u003cstrong\u003ePaul Rutten\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/a\u003e is a partner, and \u003cstrong\u003eAudrey Stikkers\u003c/strong\u003e is a consultant.\u003c/p\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003eThe authors would like to thank Sophie Merckelbach, Erik IJzermans, and Mohammad Behnam for their contributions to this article.\u003c/p\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003eThis article was edited by Elizabeth Newman, an executive editor in the Chicago office.\u003c/p\u003e"},"authors":{"targetItems":[{"template":{"id":"3FBABDB63A094F68B1F8E1BBE1BA124E","name":"Author"},"id":"9EA0110BE3374B5C97CF1E241307CAE1","name":"Daniel Cramer","authorTitle":{"value":"Daniel Cramer"},"description":{"value":""},"thumbnailImage":{"alt":"","src":null},"profile":{"targetItems":[]}},{"template":{"id":"3FBABDB63A094F68B1F8E1BBE1BA124E","name":"Author"},"id":"BC60A196DB014CF9B4863EBEB4E6C5E7","name":"Paul Rutten","authorTitle":{"value":"Paul Rutten"},"description":{"value":""},"thumbnailImage":{"alt":"","src":null},"profile":{"targetItems":[{"standardImage":{"src":"/~/media/mckinsey/our people/paul rutten/paulrutten_002_fc-mask_profile_1536x1152.png","alt":"Paul Rutten"},"emailLinks":{"value":"Paul_Rutten@McKinsey.com"},"linkedInUrl":{"value":"https://nl.linkedin.com/in/prutten"},"description":{"value":"Helps leaders address large-scale quality challenges and achieve stronger results, working across healthcare, pharmaceuticals, and other operations-intensive sectors."},"locations":{"targetItems":[{"name":"Amsterdam","displayName":"Amsterdam"}]},"firmTitle":{"value":"Partner"},"thumbnailImage":{"alt":"Paul Rutten","src":"/~/media/mckinsey/our people/paul rutten/paulrutten_002_fc-mask_headshot_988x741.png"},"url":{"path":"/our-people/paul-rutten"}}]}},{"template":{"id":"3FBABDB63A094F68B1F8E1BBE1BA124E","name":"Author"},"id":"09B8CBF494044944982BD7F9F3C73ACB","name":"Audrey Stikkers","authorTitle":{"value":"Audrey Stikkers"},"description":{"value":""},"thumbnailImage":{"alt":"","src":null},"profile":{"targetItems":[]}}]},"nonPartnerAuthors":{"targetItems":[]},"interactiveToUse":{"targetItem":null},"enableArticleComponents":{"boolValue":false},"relatedArticles":{"targetItems":[{"sourcePublication":{"targetItem":null},"publicationSource":null,"externalPublication":{"value":""},"title":{"value":"COVID-19: Overcoming supply shortages for diagnostic testing"},"url":{"path":"/industries/life-sciences/our-insights/covid-19-overcoming-supply-shortages-for-diagnostic-testing"},"eyebrow":{"targetItem":{"name":"Article"}},"articleType":{"targetItem":{"name":"Article"}},"contentType":{"targetItem":{"name":"Article"}},"description":{"value":"Testing is considered critical to containing COVID-19, yet many countries have encountered diagnostic-supply shortages. Understanding where constraints lie could help efforts to scale testing."},"standardImage":{"src":"/~/media/mckinsey/industries/life sciences/our insights/covid 19 overcoming supply shortages for diagnostic testing/covid-19-overcoming-supply-1536x1536.jpg","alt":"COVID-19: Overcoming supply shortages for diagnostic testing"},"heroImage":null,"thumbnailImage":null},{"sourcePublication":{"targetItem":null},"publicationSource":null,"externalPublication":{"value":""},"title":{"value":"The great acceleration in healthcare: Six trends to heed"},"url":{"path":"/industries/healthcare/our-insights/the-great-acceleration-in-healthcare-six-trends-to-heed"},"eyebrow":{"targetItem":{"name":"Article"}},"articleType":{"targetItem":{"name":"Article"}},"contentType":{"targetItem":{"name":"Article"}},"description":{"value":"Next generation care management, health for all, consolidated care delivery, and reform efforts are among the trends that may shape healthcare in the years ahead."},"standardImage":{"src":"/~/media/mckinsey/industries/healthcare systems and services/our insights/the great acceleration in healthcare six trends to heed/standard-six-trends-1212819246.jpg","alt":"The great acceleration in healthcare: Six trends to heed"},"heroImage":null,"thumbnailImage":null},{"sourcePublication":{"targetItem":null},"publicationSource":null,"externalPublication":{"value":""},"title":{"value":"Why tech transfer may be critical to beating COVID-19"},"url":{"path":"/industries/life-sciences/our-insights/why-tech-transfer-may-be-critical-to-beating-covid-19"},"eyebrow":{"targetItem":{"name":"Article"}},"articleType":{"targetItem":{"name":"Article"}},"contentType":{"targetItem":{"name":"Article"}},"description":{"value":"How quickly COVID-19 vaccine production ramps up will depend on technology transfer\u0026mdash;the capabilities and processes that can speed vaccines from development to manufacturing. 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