Global warming - Climate Change, Melting Ice, Rising Sea Levels

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border-right-sm border-left-sm open"> <div class="drawer d-flex flex-column open"> <div class="left-rail-section-content"> <div class="topic-left-rail-header text-truncate bg-gray-50 position-relative text-right d-flex align-items-center"> <div class="tlr-title px-20 py-15 text-left"> <em class="material-icons text-gray-400 d-lg-none" data-icon="toc"></em> <a class="font-serif font-weight-bold text-black link-blue" href="https://www.britannica.com/science/global-warming">global warming</a> </div> <button aria-label="Close" class="js-sections-close-button btn-link btn-sm btn d-lg-none position-absolute top-0 p-10 right-0" > <em class="material-icons font-26" data-icon="close"></em> </button> </div> <div class="section-content pl-10 pr-20 pl-sm-50 pr-sm-60 pl-lg-5 pr-lg-10 pt-10 pt-lg-0 bg-gray-50 clear-catfish-ad"> <div class="toc mb-20"> <div class="font-serif font-14 font-weight-bold mx-15 mb-15 mt-20"> Table of Contents </div> <ul class="list-unstyled my-0" data-level="h1"><li data-target="#ref1"><div class="pl-25"><a class="link-gray-900 w-100" href="/science/global-warming">Introduction & Top Questions</a></div><div class="ml-40 toc-drawer sub-toc-drawer"></div></li><li data-target="#ref274818"><div class="d-flex align-items-center"><div class="ml-25"></div><a class="w-100 link-gray-900" href="/science/global-warming/Climatic-variation-since-the-last-glaciation">Climatic variation since the last glaciation</a></div><div class="ml-40 toc-drawer sub-toc-drawer"></div></li><li data-target="#ref274819"><div class="d-flex align-items-center"><button class="h1-link-drawer-button btn btn-xs btn-circle d-flex rounded" type="button" aria-label="Toggle Heading"><em class="material-icons font-18" data-icon="keyboard_arrow_right"></em></button><a class="w-100 link-gray-900" href="/science/global-warming/Causes-of-global-warming">Causes of global warming</a></div><div class="ml-40 toc-drawer sub-toc-drawer"><ul class="list-unstyled" data-level="h2"><li data-target="#ref274820"><a class="w-100 link-gray-900" href="/science/global-warming/Causes-of-global-warming#ref274820">The greenhouse effect</a></li></ul><ul class="list-unstyled" data-level="h2"><li data-target="#ref274821"><a class="w-100 link-gray-900" href="/science/global-warming/Radiative-forcing">Radiative forcing</a></li></ul><ul class="list-unstyled" data-level="h2"><li data-target="#ref274822"><a class="w-100 link-gray-900" href="/science/global-warming/Radiative-forcing#ref274822">The influences of human activity on climate</a><ul class="list-unstyled" data-level="h3"><li data-target="#ref274823" class="has-children"><a class="w-100 link-gray-900" href="/science/global-warming/Radiative-forcing#ref274823">Greenhouse gases</a><ul class="list-unstyled" data-level="h4"><li data-target="#ref274824"><a class="w-100 link-gray-900" href="/science/global-warming/Radiative-forcing#ref274824">Water vapour</a></li></ul><ul class="list-unstyled" data-level="h4"><li data-target="#ref274825"><a class="w-100 link-gray-900" href="/science/global-warming/Carbon-dioxide">Carbon dioxide</a></li></ul><ul class="list-unstyled" data-level="h4"><li data-target="#ref274826"><a class="w-100 link-gray-900" href="/science/global-warming/Carbon-dioxide#ref274826">Methane</a></li></ul><ul class="list-unstyled" data-level="h4"><li data-target="#ref274827"><a class="w-100 link-gray-900" href="/science/global-warming/Surface-level-ozone-and-other-compounds">Surface-level ozone and other compounds</a></li></ul><ul class="list-unstyled" data-level="h4"><li data-target="#ref274828"><a class="w-100 link-gray-900" href="/science/global-warming/Surface-level-ozone-and-other-compounds#ref274828">Nitrous oxides and fluorinated gases</a></li></ul></li></ul><ul class="list-unstyled" data-level="h3"><li data-target="#ref274829"><a class="w-100 link-gray-900" href="/science/global-warming/Surface-level-ozone-and-other-compounds#ref274829">Aerosols</a></li></ul><ul class="list-unstyled" data-level="h3"><li data-target="#ref274830"><a class="w-100 link-gray-900" href="/science/global-warming/Land-use-change">Land-use change</a></li></ul><ul class="list-unstyled" data-level="h3"><li data-target="#ref274831"><a class="w-100 link-gray-900" href="/science/global-warming/Land-use-change#ref274831">Stratospheric ozone depletion</a></li></ul></li></ul><ul class="list-unstyled" data-level="h2"><li data-target="#ref274832"><a class="w-100 link-gray-900" href="/science/global-warming/Land-use-change#ref274832">Natural influences on climate</a><ul class="list-unstyled" data-level="h3"><li data-target="#ref274833"><a class="w-100 link-gray-900" href="/science/global-warming/Volcanic-aerosols">Volcanic aerosols</a></li></ul><ul class="list-unstyled" data-level="h3"><li data-target="#ref274834"><a class="w-100 link-gray-900" href="/science/global-warming/Volcanic-aerosols#ref274834">Variations in solar output</a></li></ul><ul class="list-unstyled" data-level="h3"><li data-target="#ref274835"><a class="w-100 link-gray-900" href="/science/global-warming/Variations-in-Earths-orbit">Variations in Earth’s orbit</a></li></ul></li></ul><ul class="list-unstyled" data-level="h2"><li data-target="#ref274836"><a class="w-100 link-gray-900" href="/science/global-warming/Feedback-mechanisms-and-climate-sensitivity">Feedback mechanisms and climate sensitivity</a><ul class="list-unstyled" data-level="h3"><li data-target="#ref274837"><a class="w-100 link-gray-900" href="/science/global-warming/Feedback-mechanisms-and-climate-sensitivity#ref274837">Water vapour feedback</a></li></ul><ul class="list-unstyled" data-level="h3"><li data-target="#ref274838"><a class="w-100 link-gray-900" href="/science/global-warming/Feedback-mechanisms-and-climate-sensitivity#ref274838">Cloud feedbacks</a></li></ul><ul class="list-unstyled" data-level="h3"><li data-target="#ref274839"><a class="w-100 link-gray-900" href="/science/global-warming/Feedback-mechanisms-and-climate-sensitivity#ref274839">Ice albedo feedback</a></li></ul><ul class="list-unstyled" data-level="h3"><li data-target="#ref274840"><a class="w-100 link-gray-900" href="/science/global-warming/Feedback-mechanisms-and-climate-sensitivity#ref274840">Carbon cycle feedbacks</a></li></ul></li></ul></div></li><li data-target="#ref274841"><div class="d-flex align-items-center"><button class="h1-link-drawer-button btn btn-xs btn-circle d-flex rounded" type="button" aria-label="Toggle Heading"><em class="material-icons font-18" data-icon="keyboard_arrow_right"></em></button><a class="w-100 link-gray-900" href="/science/global-warming/Climate-research">Climate research</a></div><div class="ml-40 toc-drawer sub-toc-drawer"><ul class="list-unstyled" data-level="h2"><li data-target="#ref274842"><a class="w-100 link-gray-900" href="/science/global-warming/Climate-research#ref274842">Modern observations</a></li></ul><ul class="list-unstyled" data-level="h2"><li data-target="#ref274843"><a class="w-100 link-gray-900" href="/science/global-warming/Climate-research#ref274843">Prehistorical climate records</a></li></ul><ul class="list-unstyled" data-level="h2"><li data-target="#ref274844"><a class="w-100 link-gray-900" href="/science/global-warming/Theoretical-climate-models">Theoretical climate models</a></li></ul></div></li><li data-target="#ref274845"><div class="d-flex align-items-center"><button class="h1-link-drawer-button btn btn-xs btn-circle d-flex rounded" type="button" aria-label="Toggle Heading"><em class="material-icons font-18" data-icon="keyboard_arrow_right"></em></button><a class="w-100 link-gray-900" href="/science/global-warming/Potential-effects-of-global-warming">Potential effects of global warming</a></div><div class="ml-40 toc-drawer sub-toc-drawer"><ul class="list-unstyled" data-level="h2"><li data-target="#ref274846"><a class="w-100 link-gray-900" href="/science/global-warming/Potential-effects-of-global-warming#ref274846">Simulations of future climate change</a><ul class="list-unstyled" data-level="h3"><li data-target="#ref274847"><a class="w-100 link-gray-900" href="/science/global-warming/Potential-effects-of-global-warming#ref274847">Patterns of warming</a></li></ul><ul class="list-unstyled" data-level="h3"><li data-target="#ref274848"><a class="w-100 link-gray-900" href="/science/global-warming/Potential-effects-of-global-warming#ref274848">Precipitation patterns</a></li></ul><ul class="list-unstyled" data-level="h3"><li data-target="#ref274849"><a class="w-100 link-gray-900" href="/science/global-warming/Potential-effects-of-global-warming#ref274849">Regional predictions</a></li></ul><ul class="list-unstyled" data-level="h3"><li data-target="#ref274850"><a class="w-100 link-gray-900" href="/science/global-warming/Ice-melt-and-sea-level-rise">Ice melt and sea level rise</a></li></ul><ul class="list-unstyled" data-level="h3"><li data-target="#ref274851"><a class="w-100 link-gray-900" href="/science/global-warming/Ice-melt-and-sea-level-rise#ref274851">Ocean circulation changes</a></li></ul><ul class="list-unstyled" data-level="h3"><li data-target="#ref274852"><a class="w-100 link-gray-900" href="/science/global-warming/Ice-melt-and-sea-level-rise#ref274852">Tropical cyclones</a></li></ul></li></ul><ul class="list-unstyled" data-level="h2"><li data-target="#ref274853"><a class="w-100 link-gray-900" href="/science/global-warming/Environmental-consequences-of-global-warming">Environmental consequences of global warming</a></li></ul><ul class="list-unstyled" data-level="h2"><li data-target="#ref274854"><a class="w-100 link-gray-900" href="/science/global-warming/Socioeconomic-consequences-of-global-warming">Socioeconomic consequences of global warming</a></li></ul></div></li></ul> <a class="toc-extra-link link-gray-900" href="https://www.britannica.com/science/global-warming/additional-info">References & Edit History</a> <a class="toc-extra-link link-gray-900" href="/facts/global-warming">Quick Facts & Related Topics</a> </div> <div class="tlr-media-slider pb-10 mb-30"> <a class="section-header link-gray-900 font-serif font-14 font-weight-bold mb-10 mx-10" href="https://www.britannica.com/science/global-warming/images-videos">Images, Videos & Interactives</a> <div class="slider js-slider position-relative d-inline-flex align-items-center mw-100 "> <div class="slider-container js-slider-container overflow-hidden d-flex overflow-hidden text-nowrap ml-15"> <a href="https://cdn.britannica.com/50/112550-050-D7D94E18/Grinnell-Glacier-series-photographs-summit-Mount-Gould-2006.jpg" data-href="/media/1/235402/109643" class="media-overlay-link d-inline-block mr-5"> <img loading="lazy" src="https://cdn.britannica.com/50/112550-004-7B056C78/Grinnell-Glacier-series-photographs-summit-Mount-Gould-2006.jpg" alt="Grinnell Glacier shrinkage" height="50" /> </a> <a href="https://cdn.britannica.com/93/239193-050-0FF40562/historical-global-temperature-by-year-1880-2023.jpg" data-href="/media/1/235402/274995" class="media-overlay-link d-inline-block mr-5"> <img loading="lazy" src="https://cdn.britannica.com/93/239193-049-0FF40562/historical-global-temperature-by-year-1880-2023.jpg" alt="annual global temperature average: 1880–2023" height="50" /> </a> <a href="" data-href="/media/1/235402/274996" class="media-overlay-link d-inline-block mr-5"> <img loading="lazy" src="https://cdn.britannica.com/94/239194-049-E5CA6FE1/global-sea-level-rise-line-chart.jpg" alt="Global average sea level change: 1880–2023" height="50" /> </a> <a href="" data-href="/media/1/235402/287609" class="media-overlay-link d-inline-block mr-5"> <img loading="lazy" src="https://cdn.britannica.com/60/247260-049-56AB0632/temperature-trends.jpg" alt="July temperature anomalies" height="50" /> </a> <a 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Mann</div> <div class="editor-description font-12 font-serif mt-5 clamp-description text-black">Associate Professor of Meteorology, Pennsylvania State University, University Park.</div> </a> <div data-popper-arrow></div> </div> <span class="btn btn-link editor-link p-0 qa-byline-link gtm-byline font-12 byline-contributor text-decoration-underline"> Michael E. Mann</span></div> <div class="font-serif font-12 text-gray-700"> <span class="qa-fact-checked-by">Fact-checked by</span> <div class="editor-popover popover p-0"> <a class="d-block p-20 qa-editor-popup font-12" href="/editor/The-Editors-of-Encyclopaedia-Britannica/4419" > <div class="editor-title font-16 font-weight-bold">The Editors of Encyclopaedia Britannica</div> <div class="editor-description font-12 font-serif mt-5 text-black">Encyclopaedia Britannica's editors oversee subject areas in which they have extensive knowledge, whether from years of experience gained by working on that content or via study for an advanced degree. They write new content and verify and edit content received from contributors.</div> </a> <div data-popper-arrow></div> </div> <span class="btn btn-link editor-link p-0 qa-byline-link font-12 "> The Editors of Encyclopaedia Britannica</span></div> <div class="last-updated font-12 font-serif"> <span class="text-gray-700"> Last Updated: <time datetime="2025-02-26T00:00:00CST" >Feb 26, 2025</time> •</span> <a class="byline-edit-history" href="https://www.britannica.com/science/global-warming/additional-info#history" rel="nofollow">Article History</a> </div></div> </div> <button class="d-flex d-lg-none btn btn-outline-blue border rounded-sm shadow-sm mobile-toc-button gtm-mobile-toc-inline-button d-none d-sm-block js-sections-inline-button module-spacing btn d-lg-none"> <em class="material-icons mr-5 ml-n10 my-n5 md-icon" data-icon="toc"></em> Table of Contents </button> <div class="d-flex d-sm-none flex-row"> <button class="d-flex d-lg-none btn btn-outline-blue border rounded-sm shadow-sm mobile-toc-button gtm-mobile-toc-inline-button js-sections-inline-button module-spacing"> <em class="material-icons mr-5 ml-n10 my-n5 md-icon" data-icon="toc"></em> Table of Contents </button> <button class="ai-ask-button btn btn-sm border-2 btn-outline-red-400 border-red-400 module-spacing js-inline-ai-ask-button p-10 ml-5"> Ask the Chatbot </button> </div> <div class="js-qf-module qf-module px-40 px-sm-20 py-15 mx-auto module-spacing font-14 bg-gray-50 rounded"> <div class="facts-list mt-10"> <div class=""> <div class="js-fact mb-10 line-clamp clamp-3"> <dl> <dt>Key People: </dt> <dd><a href="/biography/Klaus-Hasselmann" topicid="2197506">Klaus Hasselmann</a></dd> <dd><a href="/biography/Tim-Flannery" topicid="1376985">Tim Flannery</a></dd> <dd><a href="/biography/Roger-Angel" topicid="1735165">Roger Angel</a></dd> </dl> <button class="js-more-btn d-none btn btn-unstyled font-12 bg-gray-50" aria-label="Toggle more/less fact data"> <em class="js-content link-blue">(Show more)</em> </button> </div> </div> <div class=""> <div class="js-fact mb-10 line-clamp clamp-3"> <dl> <dt>Related Topics: </dt> <dd><a href="/procon/climate-change-debate" topicid="2256566">Climate Change</a></dd> <dd><a href="/topic/global-warming-policy" topicid="2222532">global warming policy</a></dd> <dd><a href="/science/ocean-warming" topicid="1750949">ocean warming</a></dd> <dd><a href="/science/anthropogenic-climate-change" topicid="1963898">anthropogenic climate change</a></dd> <dd><a href="/science/global-cooling" topicid="682393">global cooling</a></dd> </dl> <button class="js-more-btn d-none btn btn-unstyled font-12 bg-gray-50" aria-label="Toggle more/less fact data"> <em class="js-content link-blue">(Show more)</em> </button> </div> <div class="text-center"> <a class="btn btn-sm btn-link p-0" href="/facts/global-warming"> See all related content </a> </div> </div> </div> </div><div class="bg-gray-50 p-15 rounded module-spacing recent-news d-flex flex-column float-false"> <div> <h2 class="font-weight-bold font-14 m-0 d-inline"> News <span class="text-gray-600">•</span> </h2> <div class="recent-news-item first-recent-news-item d-inline"> <a class="font-14 gtm-ap-news-link" href="/news/235402/4b34246d5ca798154af08560fd94f7b9" rel="nofollow">EPA head urges Trump to reconsider scientific finding that underpins climate action, AP sources say</a> <span class="font-14 text-gray-600"> <span>•</span> Feb. 26, 2025, 5:45 PM ET (AP) </span> </div> </div> <div class="rest-of-recent-news-items"> <button class="js-toggle-recent-news d-flex btn btn-unstyled font-14 pr-10 rounded-sm mt-10" aria-label="Toggle additional news items"> Show less <em class="material-icons" data-icon="expand_less"></em> </button> </div> </div><span class="marker before-article"></span><section data-level="2" id="ref274853">  <span class="marker PREMOD1 mod-inline"></span><div class="assemblies"><div class="w-100"><figure class="md-assembly m-0 mb-md-0 card card-borderless print-false" data-assembly-id="153063" data-asm-type="video"><div class="md-assembly-wrapper card-media" data-type="video" video-id="143209"><a data-id="143209" class="gtm-assembly-link d-flex justify-content-center" style="--aspect-ratio: 16/9" href="/video/warming-carbon-dioxide-Earth-increase-gases-emission/-153063"><img src="https://cdn.britannica.com/09/143209-138-E27E7A01/warming-carbon-dioxide-Earth-increase-gases-emission.jpg?w=800&h=450&c=crop" alt="Global warming and its impact explained" loading="lazy"><script type="application/json"> { "sources": [ { "file" : "//content.jwplatform.com/manifests/CdgaP9ji.m3u8" } ], "image": "https://cdn.britannica.com/09/143209-138-E27E7A01/warming-carbon-dioxide-Earth-increase-gases-emission.jpg" ,"tracks": [ { "file" : "//assets-jpcust.jwpsrv.com/tracks/gPpCXwqY", "label": "English" } ] ,"adfile": "//content.jwplatform.com/manifests/xAIBRP4G.m3u8" } </script><div class="btn btn-xl btn-white btn-circle position-absolute shadow" style="top: 50%; transform: translateY(-50%)"><em class="material-icons" data-icon="play_arrow"></em></div></a></div><figcaption class="card-body"><div class="md-assembly-caption text-muted font-14 font-serif line-clamp"><span><span class="md-assembly-title font-weight-bold mr-5 d-inline font-sans-serif md-video-caption" video-control="143209">Global warming and its impact explained</span><span>The perceptible warming of Earth over the past 150 years has been caused by an increase in the emission of gases such as carbon dioxide, which amplify the greenhouse effect.</span><button class="js-more-btn d-none btn btn-unstyled font-12 bg-white js-content" aria-label="Toggle more/less fact data"><span class="link-blue">(more)</span></button></span></div><a class="font-14 mt-10 d-inline-block" href="/science/global-warming/images-videos">See all videos for this article</a></figcaption></figure></div></div><p class="topic-paragraph">Global warming and <a href="https://www.britannica.com/science/climate-change" class="md-crosslink autoxref " data-show-preview="true">climate change</a> have the potential to alter biological systems. More specifically, changes to near-surface <a href="https://www.britannica.com/science/air" class="md-crosslink autoxref " data-show-preview="true">air</a> temperatures will likely influence <span id="ref979421"></span><a href="https://www.britannica.com/science/ecosystem" class="md-crosslink " data-show-preview="true">ecosystem</a> functioning and thus the <a href="https://www.britannica.com/science/biodiversity" class="md-crosslink " data-show-preview="true">biodiversity</a> of <span id="ref979422"></span><a href="https://www.britannica.com/plant/plant" class="md-crosslink " data-show-preview="true">plants</a>, <span id="ref979423"></span><a href="https://www.britannica.com/animal/animal" class="md-crosslink " data-show-preview="true">animals</a>, and other forms of <a href="https://www.britannica.com/science/life" class="md-crosslink " data-show-preview="true">life</a>. The current geographic ranges of plant and animal <a href="https://www.britannica.com/science/species-taxon" class="md-crosslink " data-show-preview="true">species</a> have been established by <a class="md-dictionary-link md-dictionary-tt-off mw" data-term="adaptation" href="https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/adaptation" data-type="MW">adaptation</a> to long-term seasonal <a href="https://www.britannica.com/science/climate-meteorology" class="md-crosslink autoxref " data-show-preview="true">climate</a> patterns. As global warming alters these patterns on timescales considerably shorter than those that arose in the past from natural climate variability, relatively sudden climatic changes may challenge the natural adaptive capacity of many species.</p><span class="marker MOD1 mod-inline"></span> <span class="marker PREMOD2 mod-inline"></span><p class="topic-paragraph">A large fraction of plant and animal species are likely to be at an increased risk of <span id="ref979424"></span><a href="https://www.britannica.com/science/extinction-biology" class="md-crosslink " data-show-preview="true">extinction</a> if global average surface temperatures rise another 1.5 to 2.5 °C (2.7 to 4.5 °F) by the year 2100. Species loss estimates climb to as much as 40 percent for a warming in excess of 4.5 °C (8.1 °F)—a level that could be reached in the <a href="https://www.britannica.com/topic/Intergovernmental-Panel-on-Climate-Change" class="md-crosslink autoxref " data-show-preview="true">IPCC’s</a> higher emissions scenarios. A 40 percent extinction rate would likely lead to major changes in the food webs within ecosystems and have a destructive impact on ecosystem function.</p><span class="marker MOD2 mod-inline"></span> <span class="marker PREMOD3 mod-inline"></span><div class="assemblies"><div class="w-100"><figure class="md-assembly m-0 mb-md-0 card card-borderless print-false" data-assembly-id="193956" data-asm-type="video"><div class="md-assembly-wrapper card-media" data-type="video" video-id="180096"><a data-id="180096" class="gtm-assembly-link d-flex justify-content-center" style="--aspect-ratio: 16/9" href="/video/warming-birds-pattern/-193956"><img src="https://cdn.britannica.com/96/180096-138-9FDE19B7/warming-birds-pattern.jpg?w=800&h=450&c=crop" alt="How climate change affects bird migration patterns" loading="lazy"><script type="application/json"> { "sources": [ { "file" : "//content.jwplatform.com/manifests/1XJfo6Xc.m3u8" } ], "image": "https://cdn.britannica.com/96/180096-138-9FDE19B7/warming-birds-pattern.jpg" ,"tracks": [ { "file" : "//assets-jpcust.jwpsrv.com/tracks/w7y85i6P", "label": "English" } ] ,"adfile": "//content.jwplatform.com/manifests/amDe8wKj.m3u8" } </script><div class="btn btn-xl btn-white btn-circle position-absolute shadow" style="top: 50%; transform: translateY(-50%)"><em class="material-icons" data-icon="play_arrow"></em></div></a></div><figcaption class="card-body"><div class="md-assembly-caption text-muted font-14 font-serif line-clamp"><span><span class="md-assembly-title font-weight-bold mr-5 d-inline font-sans-serif md-video-caption" video-control="180096">How climate change affects bird migration patterns</span><span>Learn how global warming affects the migratory patterns of birds.</span><button class="js-more-btn d-none btn btn-unstyled font-12 bg-white js-content" aria-label="Toggle more/less fact data"><span class="link-blue">(more)</span></button></span></div><a class="font-14 mt-10 d-inline-block" href="/science/global-warming/images-videos">See all videos for this article</a></figcaption></figure></div></div><p class="topic-paragraph">Surface warming in <a class="md-dictionary-link md-dictionary-tt-off eb" data-term="temperate" href="https://www.britannica.com/dictionary/temperate" data-type="EB">temperate</a> regions is likely to lead changes in various seasonal processes—for instance, earlier <a href="https://www.britannica.com/science/leaf-plant-anatomy" class="md-crosslink " data-show-preview="true">leaf</a> production by <a href="https://www.britannica.com/plant/tree" class="md-crosslink " data-show-preview="true">trees</a>, earlier greening of vegetation, altered timing of egg laying and hatching, and shifts in the seasonal migration patterns of <a href="https://www.britannica.com/animal/bird-animal" class="md-crosslink " data-show-preview="true">birds</a>, <a href="https://www.britannica.com/animal/fish" class="md-crosslink " data-show-preview="true">fishes</a>, and other migratory animals. In high-latitude ecosystems, changes in the seasonal patterns of <span id="ref979425"></span><a href="https://www.britannica.com/science/sea-ice" class="md-crosslink " data-show-preview="true">sea ice</a> threaten predators such as <a href="https://www.britannica.com/animal/polar-bear" class="md-crosslink " data-show-preview="true">polar bears</a> and <a href="https://www.britannica.com/animal/walrus" class="md-crosslink " data-show-preview="true">walruses</a>; both species rely on broken sea ice for their hunting activities. Also in the high latitudes, a combination of warming waters, decreased sea ice, and changes in ocean <a href="https://www.britannica.com/science/salinity" class="md-crosslink autoxref " data-show-preview="true">salinity</a> and circulation is likely to lead to reductions or redistributions in populations of <a href="https://www.britannica.com/science/algae" class="md-crosslink " data-show-preview="true">algae</a> and <a href="https://www.britannica.com/science/plankton" class="md-crosslink " data-show-preview="true">plankton</a>. As a result, fish and other organisms that forage upon algae and plankton may be threatened. On land, rising temperatures and changes in <a href="https://www.britannica.com/science/precipitation" class="md-crosslink autoxref " data-show-preview="true">precipitation</a> patterns and <a href="https://www.britannica.com/science/drought" class="md-crosslink autoxref " data-show-preview="true">drought</a> frequencies are likely to alter patterns of disturbance by <a href="https://www.britannica.com/science/fire-combustion" class="md-crosslink " data-show-preview="true">fires</a> and <a href="https://www.britannica.com/science/pest-vermin" class="md-crosslink " data-show-preview="true">pests</a>.</p><span class="marker MOD3 mod-inline"></span> <span class="marker PREMOD4 mod-inline"></span><p class="topic-paragraph">Numerous ecologists, conservation biologists, and other scientists studying climate warn that rising surface temperatures will bring about an increased extinction risk. In 2015 one study that examined 130 extinction models developed in previous studies predicted that 5.2 percent of species would be lost with a rise in average temperatures of 2 °C (3.6 °F) above temperature <a class="md-dictionary-link md-dictionary-tt-off mw" data-term="benchmarks" href="https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/benchmarks" data-type="MW">benchmarks</a> from before the onset of the <a href="https://www.britannica.com/event/Industrial-Revolution" class="md-crosslink " data-show-preview="true">Industrial Revolution</a>. The study also predicted that 16 percent of <a href="https://www.britannica.com/place/Earth" class="md-crosslink autoxref " data-show-preview="true">Earth’s</a> species would be lost if surface warming increased to about 4.3 °C (7.7 °F) above preindustrial temperature benchmarks.</p><span class="marker MOD4 mod-inline"></span> <span class="marker PREMOD5 mod-inline"></span><p class="topic-paragraph">Other likely impacts on the <a href="https://www.britannica.com/science/environment" class="md-crosslink " data-show-preview="true">environment</a> include the destruction of many coastal <a href="https://www.britannica.com/science/wetland" class="md-crosslink " data-show-preview="true">wetlands</a>, <a href="https://www.britannica.com/science/salt-marsh" class="md-crosslink " data-show-preview="true">salt marshes</a>, and <a href="https://www.britannica.com/plant/mangrove" class="md-crosslink " data-show-preview="true">mangrove</a> swamps as a result of rising sea levels and the loss of certain rare and fragile habitats that are often home to specialist species that are unable to thrive in other <a class="md-dictionary-link md-dictionary-tt-off mw" data-term="environments" href="https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/environments" data-type="MW">environments</a>. For example, certain <a href="https://www.britannica.com/animal/amphibian" class="md-crosslink " data-show-preview="true">amphibians</a> limited to isolated tropical <span id="ref979458"></span><a href="https://www.britannica.com/science/cloud-forest-ecology" class="md-crosslink " data-show-preview="true">cloud forests</a> either have become extinct already or are under serious threat of extinction. Cloud forests—tropical forests that depend on persistent <a href="https://www.britannica.com/science/condensation-phase-change" class="md-crosslink " data-show-preview="true">condensation</a> of moisture in the air—are disappearing as optimal condensation levels move to higher elevations in response to warming temperatures in the lower <a href="https://www.britannica.com/science/atmosphere" class="md-crosslink autoxref " data-show-preview="true">atmosphere</a>.</p><div class="module-spacing"> </div><span class="marker MOD5 mod-inline"></span> <span class="marker PREMOD6 mod-inline"></span><div class="assemblies"><div class="w-100"><figure class="md-assembly m-0 mb-md-0 card card-borderless print-false" data-assembly-id="19644" data-asm-type="image"><div class="md-assembly-wrapper card-media" data-type="image"><a href="https://cdn.britannica.com/94/26994-050-D4199B8F/Cross-section-coral-polyp.jpg" class="gtm-assembly-link position-relative d-flex align-items-center justify-content-center media-overlay-link card-media" data-href="/media/1/235402/19644"><picture><source media="(min-width: 680px)" srcset="https://cdn.britannica.com/94/26994-050-D4199B8F/Cross-section-coral-polyp.jpg"><img src="https://cdn.britannica.com/94/26994-050-D4199B8F/Cross-section-coral-polyp.jpg?w=300" alt="coral polyp" data-width="1323" data-height="1600" loading="eager"></picture><button class="magnifying-glass btn btn-circle position-absolute shadow btn-white top-10 right-10" aria-label="Zoom in"><em class="material-icons link-blue" data-icon="zoom_in"></em></button></a></div><figcaption class="card-body"><div class="md-assembly-caption text-muted font-14 font-serif line-clamp"><span><a class="gtm-assembly-link md-assembly-title font-weight-bold d-inline font-sans-serif mr-5 media-overlay-link" href="https://cdn.britannica.com/94/26994-050-D4199B8F/Cross-section-coral-polyp.jpg" data-href="/media/1/235402/19644">coral polyp</a><span>Cross section of a generalized coral polyp.</span><button class="js-more-btn d-none btn btn-unstyled font-12 bg-white js-content" aria-label="Toggle more/less fact data"><span class="link-blue">(more)</span></button></span></div></figcaption></figure></div></div><p class="topic-paragraph">In many cases a combination of stresses caused by climate change as well as human activity represents a considerably greater threat than either climatic stresses or nonclimatic stresses alone. A particularly important example is <span id="ref979459"></span><a href="https://www.britannica.com/science/coral-reef" class="md-crosslink " data-show-preview="true">coral reefs</a>, which contain much of the ocean’s biodiversity. Rising ocean temperatures increase the tendency for <span id="ref979460"></span><a href="https://www.britannica.com/science/coral-bleaching" class="md-crosslink " data-show-preview="true">coral bleaching</a> (a condition where <a href="https://www.britannica.com/science/zooxanthella" class="md-crosslink " data-show-preview="true">zooxanthellae</a>, or <a href="https://www.britannica.com/science/yellow-green-algae" class="md-crosslink autoxref " data-show-preview="true">yellow-green algae</a>, living in <a href="https://www.britannica.com/science/symbiosis" class="md-crosslink " data-show-preview="true">symbiosis</a> with <a href="https://www.britannica.com/animal/coral" class="md-crosslink " data-show-preview="true">coral</a> either lose their <a href="https://www.britannica.com/technology/pigment" class="md-crosslink " data-show-preview="true">pigments</a> or abandon the coral <a href="https://www.britannica.com/science/polyp-zoology" class="md-crosslink " data-show-preview="true">polyps</a> altogether), and they also raise the likelihood of greater physical damage by progressively more destructive tropical cyclones. In many areas coral is also under stress from increased <a href="https://www.britannica.com/science/ocean-acidification" class="md-crosslink autoxref " data-show-preview="true">ocean acidification</a> (<em>see above</em>), marine <a href="https://www.britannica.com/science/pollution-environment" class="md-crosslink autoxref " data-show-preview="true">pollution</a>, <a href="https://www.britannica.com/science/runoff" class="md-crosslink " data-show-preview="true">runoff</a> from agricultural <a href="https://www.britannica.com/topic/fertilizer" class="md-crosslink " data-show-preview="true">fertilizer</a>, and physical damage by boat anchors and dredging.</p><span class="marker MOD6 mod-inline"></span> <span class="marker PREMOD7 mod-inline"></span><p class="topic-paragraph">Another example of how climate and nonclimatic stresses combine is illustrated by the threat to migratory animals. As these animals attempt to relocate to regions with more favourable climate conditions, they are likely to encounter impediments such as highways, walls, artificial waterways, and other man-made structures.</p><span class="marker MOD7 mod-inline"></span> <span class="marker PREMOD8 mod-inline"></span><div class="assemblies"><div class="w-100"><figure class="md-assembly m-0 mb-md-0 card card-borderless print-false" data-assembly-id="15787" data-asm-type="image"><div class="md-assembly-wrapper card-media" data-type="image"><a href="https://cdn.britannica.com/03/19403-050-208036F1/Anopheles-mosquito-carrier-parasite.jpg" class="gtm-assembly-link position-relative d-flex align-items-center justify-content-center media-overlay-link card-media" data-href="/media/1/235402/15787"><picture><source media="(min-width: 680px)" srcset="https://cdn.britannica.com/03/19403-050-208036F1/Anopheles-mosquito-carrier-parasite.jpg?w=300"><img src="https://cdn.britannica.com/03/19403-050-208036F1/Anopheles-mosquito-carrier-parasite.jpg?w=300" alt="Anopheles mosquito" data-width="1600" data-height="1070" loading="eager"></picture><button class="magnifying-glass btn btn-circle position-absolute shadow btn-white top-10 right-10" aria-label="Zoom in"><em class="material-icons link-blue" data-icon="zoom_in"></em></button></a></div><figcaption class="card-body"><div class="md-assembly-caption text-muted font-14 font-serif line-clamp"><span><a class="gtm-assembly-link md-assembly-title font-weight-bold d-inline font-sans-serif mr-5 media-overlay-link" href="https://cdn.britannica.com/03/19403-050-208036F1/Anopheles-mosquito-carrier-parasite.jpg" data-href="/media/1/235402/15787"><em>Anopheles</em> mosquito</a><span><em>Anopheles</em> mosquito, carrier of the malarial parasite.</span><button class="js-more-btn d-none btn btn-unstyled font-12 bg-white js-content" aria-label="Toggle more/less fact data"><span class="link-blue">(more)</span></button></span></div></figcaption></figure></div></div><p class="topic-paragraph">Warmer temperatures are also likely to affect the spread of <span id="ref979462"></span><a href="https://www.britannica.com/science/infectious-disease" class="md-crosslink " data-show-preview="true">infectious diseases</a>, since the geographic ranges of carriers, such as <a href="https://www.britannica.com/animal/insect" class="md-crosslink " data-show-preview="true">insects</a> and <a href="https://www.britannica.com/animal/rodent" class="md-crosslink " data-show-preview="true">rodents</a>, are often limited by climatic conditions. Warmer <a href="https://www.britannica.com/science/winter" class="md-crosslink autoxref " data-show-preview="true">winter</a> conditions in <a href="https://www.britannica.com/place/New-York-state" class="md-crosslink autoxref " data-show-preview="true">New York</a> in 1999, for example, appear to have <a class="md-dictionary-link md-dictionary-tt-off mw" data-term="facilitated" href="https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/facilitated" data-type="MW">facilitated</a> an outbreak of <a href="https://www.britannica.com/science/West-Nile-virus-disease" class="md-crosslink " data-show-preview="true">West Nile virus</a>, whereas the lack of killing <a href="https://www.britannica.com/science/frost-meteorology" class="md-crosslink " data-show-preview="true">frosts</a> in <a href="https://www.britannica.com/place/New-Orleans-Louisiana" class="md-crosslink autoxref " data-show-preview="true">New Orleans</a> during the early 1990s led to an explosion of disease-carrying <a href="https://www.britannica.com/animal/mosquito-insect" class="md-crosslink " data-show-preview="true">mosquitoes</a> and <a href="https://www.britannica.com/animal/cockroach-insect" class="md-crosslink " data-show-preview="true">cockroaches</a>. Warmer winters in the Korean peninsula and southern Europe have allowed the spread of the <em>Anopheles</em> mosquito, which carries the <a href="https://www.britannica.com/science/malaria" class="md-crosslink " data-show-preview="true">malaria</a> parasite, whereas warmer conditions in <a href="https://www.britannica.com/place/Scandinavia" class="md-crosslink " data-show-preview="true">Scandinavia</a> in recent years have allowed for the northward advance of <a href="https://www.britannica.com/science/encephalitis" class="md-crosslink " data-show-preview="true">encephalitis</a>.</p><span class="marker MOD8 mod-inline"></span> <span class="marker PREMOD9 mod-inline"></span><p class="topic-paragraph">In the southwestern <a href="https://www.britannica.com/place/United-States" class="md-crosslink " data-show-preview="true">United States</a>, alternations between drought and flooding related in part to the ENSO phenomenon have created conditions favourable for the spread of <a href="https://www.britannica.com/science/hantavirus" class="md-crosslink " data-show-preview="true">hantaviruses</a> by rodents. The spread of mosquito-borne <a href="https://www.britannica.com/science/Rift-Valley-fever" class="md-crosslink " data-show-preview="true">Rift Valley fever</a> in equatorial <a href="https://www.britannica.com/place/eastern-Africa" class="md-crosslink autoxref " data-show-preview="true">East Africa</a> has also been related to wet conditions in the region associated with ENSO. Severe <a href="https://www.britannica.com/science/weather" class="md-crosslink " data-show-preview="true">weather</a> conditions <a class="md-dictionary-link md-dictionary-tt-off mw" data-term="conducive" href="https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/conducive" data-type="MW">conducive</a> to rodents or insects have been implicated in infectious disease outbreaks—for instance, the outbreaks of <a href="https://www.britannica.com/science/cholera" class="md-crosslink " data-show-preview="true">cholera</a> and <a href="https://www.britannica.com/science/leptospirosis" class="md-crosslink " data-show-preview="true">leptospirosis</a> that occurred after <a href="https://www.britannica.com/event/Hurricane-Mitch" class="md-crosslink " data-show-preview="true">Hurricane Mitch</a> struck <a href="https://www.britannica.com/place/Central-America" class="md-crosslink autoxref " data-show-preview="true">Central America</a> in 1998. Global warming could therefore affect the spread of infectious disease through its influence on ENSO or on severe weather conditions.</p><span class="marker MOD9 mod-inline"></span> </section> <span class="marker end-of-content"></span><span class="marker after-article"></span></div> <div id="chatbot-simplify-root"></div> <div id="chatbot-root"></div> </div> </div> </div> <div class="ai-dialog-placeholder"></div> </div> </div> <aside class="col-md-da-320"></aside> </div> </div> </div> </div> </article> </div> </div> </div> </div> </main> <div id="md-footer"></div> <noscript><iframe src="//www.googletagmanager.com/ns.html?id=GTM-5W6NC8" height="0" width="0" style="display:none;visibility:hidden"></iframe></noscript>  <script> window.ap3c = window.ap3c || {}; var ap3c = window.ap3c; ap3c.cmd = ap3c.cmd || []; ap3c.cmd.push(function() { ap3c.init('ZO4siT4cLwnykPnzZWJtd3Byb2Q', 'https://engage.email.britannica.com/'); ap3c.track({v: 0}); }); ap3c.activity = function(act) { ap3c.act = (ap3c.act || []); ap3c.act.push(act); }; var s, t; s = document.createElement('script'); s.type = 'text/javascript'; s.src = "https://engage.email.britannica.com/app.js"; t = document.getElementsByTagName('script')[0]; t.parentNode.insertBefore(s, t); </script> <script class="marketing-page-info" type="application/json"> {"pageType":"Topic","templateName":"DESKTOP","pageNumber":15,"pagesTotal":16,"pageId":235402,"pageLength":953,"initialLoad":true,"lastPageOfScroll":false} </script> <script class="marketing-content-info" type="application/json"> [] </script> <script src="https://cdn.britannica.com/mendel-resources/3-133/js/libs/jquery-3.5.0.min.js?v=3.133.36"></script> <script type="text/javascript" data-type="Init Mendel Code Splitting"> (function() { $.ajax({ dataType: 'script', cache: true, url: 'https://cdn.britannica.com/mendel-resources/3-133/dist/topic-page.js?v=3.133.36' }); })(); </script> <script class="analytics-metadata" type="application/json"> {"leg":"B","adLeg":"B","userType":"ANONYMOUS","pageType":"Topic","pageSubtype":null,"articleTemplateType":"PAGINATED","gisted":false,"pageNumber":15,"hasSummarizeButton":false,"hasAskButton":true} </script> <script type="text/javascript"> EBStat={accountId:-1,hostnameOverride:'webstats.eb.com',domain:'www.britannica.com', json:''}; </script> <script type="text/javascript"> ( function() { $.ajax( { dataType: 'script', cache: true, url: '//www.britannica.com/webstats/mendelstats.js?v=1' } ) .done( function() { try {writeStat(null,EBStat);} catch(err){} } ); })(); </script> <div id="bc-fixed-dialogue"></div> </body> </html>

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Global warming - Climate Change, Melting Ice, Rising Sea Levels | Britannica