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Mysteel：五一节后 预计国内热轧带钢以消化库存及修复基差为主-我的钢铁网
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href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-968-----010103-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>热轧</a>带钢基差修复预期如何？市场矛盾是否会有所缓解，接下来小编将从以下几个方面来阐述。具体如下：</p> <p align="justify"><strong>一、</strong><strong>南北价差</strong></p> <p align="justify">2024年国内热轧带钢南北价差持续收窄，尤其华东-华北价差异常明显，受无<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-967-----0207-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>锡</a>地区带钢投放量增加影响，今年无锡区域自4月份以来逐步成为周边价格洼地，目前已经开始拖累热卷价格。</p> <p align="justify">截止4月30日，无锡2.5*355mm热轧带钢建龙报价3720-3730元/吨，唐山热轧带钢主流基价3670元/吨，价差50-60元/吨。无锡本地卷带价差100-130元/吨。此现象已经持续整月有余，本地主流仓储满仓，部分资源被迫非主流仓储，高库存压制，无锡带钢流动性减弱，部分厂商转做热卷及其他品种，带钢成交量大幅下滑。</p> <p style="text-align: center;" align="justify"><img src="//img02.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2024/04/30/94b8f53a71e34fd0875f47c9a68afb5f.png" alt="" width="550" height="320" /></p> <p style="text-align: center;">图1：近三年无锡-唐山带钢价差对比图</p> <p style="text-align: right;">数据来源：钢联数据</p> <p style="text-align: center;"><img src="//img05.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2024/04/30/56117a4f5cd44657acb7fda3a3d3ef38.png" alt="" width="550" height="329" /></p> <p align="center">图2：近三年乐从-唐山带钢价差对比图</p> <p align="right">数据来源：钢联数据</p> <p align="justify">受华东华南价格走低影响，目前部分北方钢厂调整南下投放比例，转投华北及华中市场。预计5月及之后投放华东华南资源有所减少。另外，分流带钢需求的一部分冷硬卷资源北材南下优势也逐渐降低，预计节后伴随库存陆续消化，南北价差或有修复预期。</p> <p align="justify"><strong>二、</strong><strong>带钢产销存数据</strong></p> <p align="justify">2024年国内热轧带钢供应较去年同比有所上移。截止4月24日，<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>Mysteel</a>样本监测，国内热轧带钢整体产能利用率 78.46%，周环比上升1.45%；年同比增加11.84%。累计产量同比去年增加286.95万吨。今年钢厂利润修复，钢厂铁水增产升级降库压力。截止4月24日国内热轧带钢库存高于去年同期21.27万吨。其中唐山高于去年同期13.88万吨；无锡高于去年同期3.8万吨，乐从高于去年同期8.61万吨。带钢各区域库存消化压力明显。</p> <p style="text-align: center;" align="justify"><img src="//img01.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2024/04/30/a4a31049144f4532b592bde5be8c047f.png" alt="" width="550" height="378" /> </p> <p style="text-align: center;" align="justify">图3：全国热轧带钢产销存周度数据对比图</p> <p style="text-align: center;" align="justify">表1：全国热轧带钢产销存数据周度杜对比表（万吨）</p> <p style="text-align: center;" align="justify"><img src="//img06.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2024/04/30/57cdd9f2a4034201b657452c39a6e33c.png" alt="" width="600" height="267" /> </p> <p align="right">数据来源：钢联数据</p> <p align="justify"><strong>三</strong><strong>、</strong><strong>下游产量回升 库存偏低 </strong></p> <p align="justify">节前Mysteel统计，截止4月24日，<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-968-----01010903-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>焊管</a>周度产量为40.54万吨，周环比增加1.17万吨，产能利用率为72.3%，周环比增加2.1%。厂内库存为32.01万吨，周环比减少0.13万吨，原料库存为64.24万吨，周环比减少9.02万吨。4月份国内<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-968-----010109-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>钢管</a>跟随原料带钢价格有所上行，产量增加，库存降低，短期管厂存在刚性补库需求，一定程度上支撑节后带钢价格。</p> <p align="justify"><a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-968-----010104-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>冷轧</a>及<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-968-----01010501-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>镀锌</a>带钢方面，今年冷轧类需求表现向好，冷卷价格高位带动冷轧带钢价格相对坚挺。加之出口数据相对可观，制造业需求回暖，民用冷轧及镀锌类需求成为今年支撑带钢价格坚挺的重要一环。</p> <p style="text-align: center;" align="justify"><img src="//img07.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2024/04/30/b5167638653f4c599ebca51478fd76da.png" alt="" width="550" height="357" /> </p> <p align="center">图4：近三年霸州镀锌带钢样本企业平均订单天数对比图</p> <p align="justify"><strong>四</strong><strong>、节后预测</strong></p> <p align="justify">近期国内热轧带钢价格受<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-967-----0501-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>焦炭</a>提张及宏观阶段性的局部好转提振，价格处于区间震荡调整阶段。供需矛盾略有改善，库存缓慢消化。但目前各区域带钢库存依旧处于相对高位。个别区域钢厂投放量盲目激增导致区域供应过剩，预计较长一段时间供需矛盾难以有效化解，高库存常态化，但基差或将逐步缓慢修复。</p> <p>五一小长假期间市场销售节奏基本停滞，流动性降低带钢库存或再次累积。节后依旧走成本及需求基本面逻辑。关注宏观政策、专项债落地情况以及库存消化速度，综合预计节后全国热轧带钢消化库存及修复基差为主，价格区间震荡调整运行。</p> <!--指标说明附件--> <br /> </div> </div> </article> <article class="content-block m-copyRight"> 资讯编辑：崔萌萌 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