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class=fusion-clearfix></div></header><div id=sliders-container></div><div class="fusion-page-title-bar fusion-page-title-bar-breadcrumbs fusion-page-title-bar-left"><div class=fusion-page-title-row><div class=fusion-page-title-wrapper><div class=fusion-page-title-captions><h1 class="entry-title">MODELING COVID -19 EPIDEMIC OF USA, UK AND RUSSIA</h1></div><div class=fusion-page-title-secondary><div class=fusion-breadcrumbs><span itemscope itemtype=http://data-vocabulary.org/Breadcrumb><a itemprop=url href=https://hbsraevents.org><span itemprop=title>Home</span></a></span><span class=fusion-breadcrumb-sep>/</span><span itemscope itemtype=http://data-vocabulary.org/Breadcrumb><a itemprop=url href=https://hbsraevents.org/category/uncategorized><span itemprop=title>Uncategorized</span></a></span><span class=fusion-breadcrumb-sep>/</span><span class=breadcrumb-leaf>MODELING COVID -19 EPIDEMIC OF USA, UK AND RUSSIA</span></div></div></div></div></div><section> <script data-cfasync=false>var 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" style><div class=fusion-row style><section id=content style="float: left;"><div class="single-navigation clearfix"> <a href=https://hbsraevents.org/abid-ali-2 rel=prev>Previous</a> <a href=https://hbsraevents.org/bbelguidom rel=next>Next</a></div><article id=post-15365 class="post post-15365 type-post status-publish format-standard hentry category-uncategorized"><h2 class="entry-title fusion-post-title">MODELING COVID -19 EPIDEMIC OF USA, UK AND RUSSIA</h2><div class=post-content><p style="text-align: center;"><b><img loading=lazy class="alignnone size-full wp-image-15366 lazy" src="data:image/svg+xml,%3Csvg%20xmlns='http://www.w3.org/2000/svg'%20viewBox='0%200%20167%20200'%3E%3C/svg%3E" data-src=https://hbsraevents.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/Major-Udaya-Konarasinghe.jpg alt width=167 height=200></b></p><p style="text-align: center;"><b>Submitted By:</b></p><p style="text-align: center;"><b>K.M.U.B. Konarasinghe</b></p><p style="text-align: center;"><i><span style="font-weight: 400;">Institute of Mathematics and Management, Sri Lanka</span></i></p><p style="text-align: center;"><a href=mailto:udaya@imathm.edu.lk><span style="font-weight: 400;">udaya@imathm.edu.lk</span></a></p><p style="text-align: center;"><b>Article</b></p><p><i><span style="font-weight: 400;">A novel coronavirus was found in a seafood wholesale market in Wuhan, China. The World health organization (WHO) officially named this coronavirus COVID-19. The disease had spread well outside China. An increase in confirmed cases is very high in the USA, UK, and Russia. Therefore, the purpose of the study was to forecast the number of infected cases in the USA, UK, and Russia. The daily confirmed cases of COVID-19 of the three countries for the period of 22nd January 2020 to 28th May 2020 were obtained from the WHO database. The Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), Autoregressive Distributed Lag Models (ADLM), and Double Exponential Smoothing (DES) were tested. The Anderson–Darling test, Auto-Correlation Function (ACF), and Ljung-Box Q (LBQ)-test were used as the goodness of fit tests in model validation. The best-fitting model was selected by comparing relative and absolute measurements of errors. The ARIMA did not satisfy the model validation criterion for any of the countries, but the ADLM and DES did. It is concluded that the ADLM is the most suitable model for forecasting the USA and the DES is the best model for the UK. However, both models are equally good for Russia. </span></i></p><p><b><i>Keywords:</i></b><i><span style="font-weight: 400;"> COVID -19, ARIMA, ADLM, DES</span></i></p><p> </p><p><i><span style="font-weight: 400;">Relevant Links:</span></i></p><p><a href=https://doi.org/10.5281/ZENODO.3893001 target=_blank rel=noopener><span style="font-weight: 400;">https://doi.org/10.5281/ZENODO.3893001</span></a></p><p><b>___________________________________________________________________</b></p><p><i><span style="font-weight: 400;">Disclaimer: Any opinions and views expressed in this submission are the opinions and views of the person who has submitted the article, and are not the views of or endorsed by the Healthcare and Biological Sciences Research Association (HBSRA). The accuracy of the content should not be relied upon and should be independently verified with primary sources of information. The person submitting the article does not necessarily be the author of the article. The Healthcare and Biological Sciences Research Association (HBSRA) shall not be liable for any losses, actions, claims, proceedings, demands, costs, expenses, damages, and other liabilities whatsoever or howsoever caused arising directly or indirectly in connection with, about, or arising out of the use of the content. For any issues or any reporting, write an email to </span></i><i><span style="font-weight: 400;">convener@eurasiaresearch.info</span></i></p><p><b>___________________________________________________________________</b></p><p> </p></div> <span class="vcard rich-snippet-hidden"> <span class=fn> <a href=https://hbsraevents.org/author/admin title="Posts by admin" rel=author>admin</a> </span> </span> <span class="updated rich-snippet-hidden"> 2021-06-03T14:29:44+00:00 </span><section class="related-posts single-related-posts"><div class="fusion-title fusion-title-size-three sep-double" style=margin-top:0px;margin-bottom:31px;><h3 class="title-heading-left"> Related Posts</h3><div class=title-sep-container><div class="title-sep sep-double"></div></div></div><div class=fusion-carousel data-imagesize=fixed data-metacontent=no data-autoplay=no data-touchscroll=no data-columns=5 data-itemmargin=44px data-itemwidth=180 data-touchscroll=yes data-scrollitems><div 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