Mysteel节后预测：西南无缝管市场价格仍有上行空间-我的钢铁网

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<p><strong>一、价格回顾</strong></p> <p>今年整个钢材市场价格都呈现出大涨大跌的态势，西南无缝管市场也不例外，以108*4.5mm为例在5月中旬出现最高点7350元/吨之后一路下行1000元/吨以上，随后逐步回升至当前的6800元/吨左右。截止9月底，今年西南地区无缝管整体均价相比去年均价高出1400元/吨以上，这对于贸易企业和终端企业都提出了更大的资金要求，而且当前的市场情况依然是少货与限电同行的状态，不仅是影响着管厂的供应，同时也对工程项目的开工形成了一定压制。</p> <p style="text-align: center"><img alt="" src="//img07.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2021/09/28/204015.png" style="height: 346px; width: 600px" /></p> <p><strong>二、市场库存</strong></p> <p>随着管厂的集中检修和停产，市场到货资源一直在缩减，所以进入9月之后，西南无缝管市场库存持续回落，导致当前不少贸易企业出现资源断档情况，就算是有本地管厂的昆明亦是如此。不过，随着国庆假期的来临以及磐金的复产，可能在这7天当中会出现库存的小幅增加，但是毕竟生产资源有限，库存的增量不会太大。</p> <p style="text-align: center"><img alt="" src="//img01.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2021/09/28/203544.png" style="height: 381px; width: 600px" /></p> <p><strong>三、需求情况</strong></p> <p>虽然说今年的9月并不“金”，但是整体成交在价格偏高的情况下并没有明显下降，还是维持在一定范围之内。另外，对于即将到来的10月，可能会在一小段时间之内出现需求量的上升，应是下游对于销售假期的提前补库操作，但是由于资金有限，补库量并不会很大。对于10月来说，整体需求依然有恢复的空间，但是幅度还需要看资金情况的改善程度。</p> <p style="text-align: center"><img alt="" src="//img02.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2021/09/28/203604.png" style="height: 393px; width: 600px" /></p> <p><strong>四、节后预测</strong></p> <p>1、从近几年钢材价格在国庆前后的走势来看，分歧还是比较大，2018年市场价格在11月出现了明显的下跌，而2020年10-11月又是明显上涨。对于当前的市场来说，属于供需两弱局面，主要支撑来自于供应的减少以及需求恢复的预期。</p> <p>2、按照9月到10月的管坯供应状况来看，调坯企业可能面临原料短缺而减产的状态，而且当前的大面积限电情况也让不少生产企业受到产量的抑制。另外，从9月已停产的部分管厂来看，其无论是厂内的成品材库存还是原料库存都处于偏低位置，对市场供应提供的帮助有限。进入10月可能有部分地区的管厂开始复产，但是传导到市场还需要一定时间，所以整体无缝管供应量依然会是紧缺状态。从需求面来说，整体在10月有一定的上升空间，但是由于价格处于高位，对资金的要求较高，所以认为上升的空间并不会太大。</p> <p>3、综合而言，在当前的市场局面之下，限电对供应的影响比对需求的影响更大，市场面临规格短缺的现状在短时间之内难以改变，所以节后市场可能出现观望后震荡走高的局势，但是具体的上升空间还是需要下游来提供支持。</p>  <br /> </div> </div> </article> <article class="content-block m-copyRight"> 资讯编辑：朱红飞 021-26093705 </br> 资讯监督：陈跃进 021-26093640 </br> 资讯投诉：陈杰 021-26093100 </br> </article> <article class="content-block m-copyRight h-statement"> <p 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