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class="mw-body-content"> <script>function mfTempOpenSection(id){var block=document.getElementById("mf-section-"+id);block.className+=" open-block";block.previousSibling.className+=" open-block";}</script> <div class="mw-content-ltr mw-parser-output" lang="en" dir="ltr"> <section class="mf-section-0" id="mf-section-0"> A nuclear holocaust, also known as a nuclear apocalypse, nuclear annihilation, nuclear <a href="https://en-m-wikipedia-org.translate.goog/wiki/Armageddon?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB" title="Armageddon">armageddon</a>, or atomic holocaust, is a <a href="https://en-m-wikipedia-org.translate.goog/wiki/Futures_studies?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB" title="Futures studies">theoretical scenario</a> where the mass detonation of <a href="https://en-m-wikipedia-org.translate.goog/wiki/Nuclear_weapons?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB" class="mw-redirect" title="Nuclear weapons">nuclear weapons</a> causes widespread destruction and <a href="https://en-m-wikipedia-org.translate.goog/wiki/Radioactive?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB" class="mw-redirect" title="Radioactive">radioactive</a> fallout. Such a scenario envisages large parts of the Earth becoming uninhabitable due to the effects of <a href="https://en-m-wikipedia-org.translate.goog/wiki/Nuclear_warfare?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB" title="Nuclear warfare">nuclear warfare</a>, potentially causing the <a href="https://en-m-wikipedia-org.translate.goog/wiki/Societal_collapse?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB" title="Societal collapse">collapse of civilization</a>, the <a href="https://en-m-wikipedia-org.translate.goog/wiki/Extinction_of_humanity?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB" class="mw-redirect" title="Extinction of humanity">extinction of humanity</a>, and/or <a href="https://en-m-wikipedia-org.translate.goog/wiki/Extinction_event?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB" title="Extinction event">the termination of most biological life on Earth</a>.<a href="https://en-m-wikipedia-org.translate.goog/wiki/Nuclear_holocaust?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB#cite_note-x978-1">[1]</a> <figure typeof="mw:File/Thumb"> <a href="https://en-m-wikipedia-org.translate.goog/wiki/File:Castle_Bravo_Blast.jpg?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB" class="mw-file-description"><img src="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/5/5d/Castle_Bravo_Blast.jpg/250px-Castle_Bravo_Blast.jpg" decoding="async" width="250" height="188" class="mw-file-element" srcset="https://translate.google.com/website?sl=auto&tl=en&hl=en-GB&u=https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/5/5d/Castle_Bravo_Blast.jpg/375px-Castle_Bravo_Blast.jpg 1.5x,https://translate.google.com/website?sl=auto&tl=en&hl=en-GB&u=https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/5/5d/Castle_Bravo_Blast.jpg/500px-Castle_Bravo_Blast.jpg 2x" data-file-width="1600" data-file-height="1200"></a> <figcaption> Mushroom cloud from the 1954 explosion of <a href="https://en-m-wikipedia-org.translate.goog/wiki/Castle_Bravo?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB" title="Castle Bravo">Castle Bravo</a>, the largest nuclear weapon detonated by the U.S. </figcaption> </figure> Besides the immediate destruction of cities by nuclear blasts, the potential aftermath of a nuclear war could involve <a href="https://en-m-wikipedia-org.translate.goog/wiki/Firestorm?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB" title="Firestorm">firestorms</a>, a <a href="https://en-m-wikipedia-org.translate.goog/wiki/Nuclear_winter?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB" title="Nuclear winter">nuclear winter</a>, widespread <a href="https://en-m-wikipedia-org.translate.goog/wiki/Acute_radiation_syndrome?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB" title="Acute radiation syndrome">radiation sickness</a> from <a href="https://en-m-wikipedia-org.translate.goog/wiki/Nuclear_fallout?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB" title="Nuclear fallout">fallout</a>, and/or the temporary (if not permanent) loss of much modern technology due to <a href="https://en-m-wikipedia-org.translate.goog/wiki/Electromagnetic_pulse?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB" title="Electromagnetic pulse">electromagnetic pulses</a>. Some scientists, such as <a href="https://en-m-wikipedia-org.translate.goog/wiki/Alan_Robock?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB" title="Alan Robock">Alan Robock</a>, have speculated that a thermonuclear war could result in the end of modern civilization on <a href="https://en-m-wikipedia-org.translate.goog/wiki/Earth?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB" title="Earth">Earth</a>, in part due to a long-lasting nuclear winter. In one model, the average temperature of Earth following a full thermonuclear war falls for several years by 7 – 8 °C (13 to 15 degrees Fahrenheit) on average.<a href="https://en-m-wikipedia-org.translate.goog/wiki/Nuclear_holocaust?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB#cite_note-RobockSAD-2">[2]</a> Early <a href="https://en-m-wikipedia-org.translate.goog/wiki/Cold_War?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB" title="Cold War">Cold War</a>-era studies suggested that billions of humans would survive the immediate effects of nuclear blasts and radiation following a global thermonuclear war.<a href="https://en-m-wikipedia-org.translate.goog/wiki/Nuclear_holocaust?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB#cite_note-bmartin.cc-3">[3]</a><a href="https://en-m-wikipedia-org.translate.goog/wiki/Nuclear_holocaust?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB#cite_note-4">[4]</a><a href="https://en-m-wikipedia-org.translate.goog/wiki/Nuclear_holocaust?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB#cite_note-ReferenceB-5">[5]</a><a href="https://en-m-wikipedia-org.translate.goog/wiki/Nuclear_holocaust?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB#cite_note-6">[6]</a> The <a href="https://en-m-wikipedia-org.translate.goog/wiki/International_Physicians_for_the_Prevention_of_Nuclear_War?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB" title="International Physicians for the Prevention of Nuclear War">International Physicians for the Prevention of Nuclear War</a> believe that nuclear war could indirectly contribute to human extinction via secondary effects, including environmental consequences, <a href="https://en-m-wikipedia-org.translate.goog/wiki/Societal_collapse?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB" title="Societal collapse">societal breakdown</a>, and economic collapse. The threat of a nuclear holocaust plays an important role in the <a href="https://en-m-wikipedia-org.translate.goog/wiki/Anti-nuclear_movement?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB" title="Anti-nuclear movement">anti-nuclear movement</a> and the development of <a href="https://en-m-wikipedia-org.translate.goog/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_in_popular_culture?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB" title="Nuclear weapons in popular culture">popular perception of nuclear weapons</a>. It features in the security concept of <a href="https://en-m-wikipedia-org.translate.goog/wiki/Mutual_assured_destruction?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB" title="Mutual assured destruction">mutually assured destruction</a> (MAD) and is a common scenario in <a href="https://en-m-wikipedia-org.translate.goog/wiki/Survivalism?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB" title="Survivalism">survivalism</a>. Nuclear holocaust is a <a href="https://en-m-wikipedia-org.translate.goog/wiki/List_of_nuclear_holocaust_fiction?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB" title="List of nuclear holocaust fiction">common feature in literature and film</a>, especially in <a href="https://en-m-wikipedia-org.translate.goog/wiki/Speculative_fiction?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB" title="Speculative fiction">speculative genres</a> such as <a href="https://en-m-wikipedia-org.translate.goog/wiki/Science_fiction?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB" title="Science fiction">science fiction</a>, <a href="https://en-m-wikipedia-org.translate.goog/wiki/Dystopia?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB" title="Dystopia">dystopian</a> and <a href="https://en-m-wikipedia-org.translate.goog/wiki/Apocalyptic_and_post-apocalyptic_fiction?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB" title="Apocalyptic and post-apocalyptic fiction">post-apocalyptic fiction</a>.<a href="https://en-m-wikipedia-org.translate.goog/wiki/Nuclear_holocaust?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB#cite_note-7">[7]</a> <style data-mw-deduplicate="TemplateStyles:r1129693374">.mw-parser-output .hlist dl,.mw-parser-output .hlist ol,.mw-parser-output .hlist ul{margin:0;padding:0}.mw-parser-output .hlist dd,.mw-parser-output .hlist dt,.mw-parser-output .hlist li{margin:0;display:inline}.mw-parser-output .hlist.inline,.mw-parser-output .hlist.inline dl,.mw-parser-output .hlist.inline ol,.mw-parser-output .hlist.inline ul,.mw-parser-output .hlist dl dl,.mw-parser-output .hlist dl ol,.mw-parser-output .hlist dl ul,.mw-parser-output .hlist ol dl,.mw-parser-output .hlist ol ol,.mw-parser-output .hlist ol ul,.mw-parser-output .hlist ul dl,.mw-parser-output .hlist ul ol,.mw-parser-output .hlist ul ul{display:inline}.mw-parser-output .hlist .mw-empty-li{display:none}.mw-parser-output .hlist dt::after{content:": "}.mw-parser-output .hlist dd::after,.mw-parser-output .hlist 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screen{html.skin-theme-clientpref-night .mw-parser-output .sidebar:not(.notheme) .sidebar-list-title,html.skin-theme-clientpref-night .mw-parser-output .sidebar:not(.notheme) .sidebar-title-with-pretitle{background:transparent!important}html.skin-theme-clientpref-night .mw-parser-output .sidebar:not(.notheme) .sidebar-title-with-pretitle a{color:var(--color-progressive)!important}}@media screen and (prefers-color-scheme:dark){html.skin-theme-clientpref-os .mw-parser-output .sidebar:not(.notheme) .sidebar-list-title,html.skin-theme-clientpref-os .mw-parser-output .sidebar:not(.notheme) .sidebar-title-with-pretitle{background:transparent!important}html.skin-theme-clientpref-os .mw-parser-output .sidebar:not(.notheme) .sidebar-title-with-pretitle a{color:var(--color-progressive)!important}}@media print{body.ns-0 .mw-parser-output .sidebar{display:none!important}}</style> <div id="toc" class="toc" role="navigation" aria-labelledby="mw-toc-heading"> <input type="checkbox" role="button" id="toctogglecheckbox" class="toctogglecheckbox" style="display:none"> <div class="toctitle" lang="en" dir="ltr"> <h2 id="mw-toc-heading">Contents</h2><label class="toctogglelabel" for="toctogglecheckbox"></label> </div> <ul> <li class="toclevel-1 tocsection-1"><a href="https://en-m-wikipedia-org.translate.goog/wiki/Nuclear_holocaust?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB#Etymology_and_usage">1 Etymology and usage</a></li> <li class="toclevel-1 tocsection-2"><a href="https://en-m-wikipedia-org.translate.goog/wiki/Nuclear_holocaust?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB#Likelihood_of_nuclear_war">2 Likelihood of nuclear war</a></li> <li class="toclevel-1 tocsection-3"><a href="https://en-m-wikipedia-org.translate.goog/wiki/Nuclear_holocaust?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB#Moral_importance_of_human_extinction_risk">3 Moral importance of human extinction risk</a></li> <li class="toclevel-1 tocsection-4"><a href="https://en-m-wikipedia-org.translate.goog/wiki/Nuclear_holocaust?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB#Likelihood_of_complete_human_extinction">4 Likelihood of complete human extinction</a></li> <li class="toclevel-1 tocsection-5"><a href="https://en-m-wikipedia-org.translate.goog/wiki/Nuclear_holocaust?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB#Effects_of_nuclear_war">5 Effects of nuclear war</a> <ul> <li class="toclevel-2 tocsection-6"><a href="https://en-m-wikipedia-org.translate.goog/wiki/Nuclear_holocaust?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB#Nuclear_winter">5.1 Nuclear winter</a></li> <li class="toclevel-2 tocsection-7"><a href="https://en-m-wikipedia-org.translate.goog/wiki/Nuclear_holocaust?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB#Nuclear_famine">5.2 Nuclear famine</a></li> <li class="toclevel-2 tocsection-8"><a href="https://en-m-wikipedia-org.translate.goog/wiki/Nuclear_holocaust?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB#Electromagnetic_pulse">5.3 Electromagnetic pulse</a></li> <li class="toclevel-2 tocsection-9"><a href="https://en-m-wikipedia-org.translate.goog/wiki/Nuclear_holocaust?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB#Nuclear_fallout">5.4 Nuclear fallout</a></li> </ul></li> <li class="toclevel-1 tocsection-10"><a href="https://en-m-wikipedia-org.translate.goog/wiki/Nuclear_holocaust?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB#Origins_and_analysis_of_extinction_hypotheses">6 Origins and analysis of extinction hypotheses</a></li> <li class="toclevel-1 tocsection-11"><a href="https://en-m-wikipedia-org.translate.goog/wiki/Nuclear_holocaust?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB#See_also">7 See also</a></li> <li class="toclevel-1 tocsection-12"><a href="https://en-m-wikipedia-org.translate.goog/wiki/Nuclear_holocaust?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB#References">8 References</a></li> <li class="toclevel-1 tocsection-13"><a href="https://en-m-wikipedia-org.translate.goog/wiki/Nuclear_holocaust?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB#External_links">9 External links</a></li> </ul> </div> </section> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading2 section-heading" onclick="mfTempOpenSection(1)"> <h2 id="Etymology_and_usage">Etymology and usage</h2> <a role="button" href="https://en-m-wikipedia-org.translate.goog/w/index.php?title=Nuclear_holocaust&action=edit&section=1&_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB" title="Edit section: Etymology and usage" class="cdx-button cdx-button--size-large cdx-button--fake-button cdx-button--fake-button--enabled cdx-button--icon-only cdx-button--weight-quiet "> edit </a> </div> <section class="mf-section-1 collapsible-block" id="mf-section-1"> The English word "holocaust", derived from the <a href="https://en-m-wikipedia-org.translate.goog/wiki/Greek_language?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB" title="Greek language">Greek</a> term "holokaustos" meaning "completely burnt", refers to great destruction and loss of life, especially by fire.<a href="https://en-m-wikipedia-org.translate.goog/wiki/Nuclear_holocaust?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB#cite_note-AmHeritage-8">[8]</a><a href="https://en-m-wikipedia-org.translate.goog/wiki/Nuclear_holocaust?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB#cite_note-9">[9]</a> One early use of the word "holocaust" to describe an imagined nuclear destruction appears in Reginald Glossop's 1926 novel The Orphan of Space: "Moscow ... beneath them ... a crash like a crack of Doom! The echoes of this Holocaust rumbled and rolled ... a distinct smell of sulphur ... atomic destruction."<a href="https://en-m-wikipedia-org.translate.goog/wiki/Nuclear_holocaust?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB#cite_note-10">[10]</a> In the novel, an atomic weapon is planted in the office of the Soviet dictator, who, with German help and Chinese mercenaries, is preparing the takeover of Western Europe. </section> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading2 section-heading" onclick="mfTempOpenSection(2)"> <h2 id="Likelihood_of_nuclear_war">Likelihood of nuclear war</h2> <a role="button" href="https://en-m-wikipedia-org.translate.goog/w/index.php?title=Nuclear_holocaust&action=edit&section=2&_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB" title="Edit section: Likelihood of nuclear war" class="cdx-button cdx-button--size-large cdx-button--fake-button cdx-button--fake-button--enabled cdx-button--icon-only cdx-button--weight-quiet "> edit </a> </div> <section class="mf-section-2 collapsible-block" id="mf-section-2"> <style data-mw-deduplicate="TemplateStyles:r1236090951">.mw-parser-output .hatnote{font-style:italic}.mw-parser-output div.hatnote{padding-left:1.6em;margin-bottom:0.5em}.mw-parser-output .hatnote i{font-style:normal}.mw-parser-output .hatnote+link+.hatnote{margin-top:-0.5em}@media print{body.ns-0 .mw-parser-output .hatnote{display:none!important}}</style> <div role="note" class="hatnote navigation-not-searchable"> See also: <a href="https://en-m-wikipedia-org.translate.goog/wiki/World_War_III?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB#Historical_close_calls" title="World War III">World War III § Historical close calls</a> </div> <figure class="mw-default-size" typeof="mw:File/Thumb"> <a href="https://en-m-wikipedia-org.translate.goog/wiki/File:World_nuclear_weapons.png?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB" class="mw-file-description"> <noscript> <img src="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/e/e0/World_nuclear_weapons.png/220px-World_nuclear_weapons.png" decoding="async" width="220" height="102" class="mw-file-element" data-file-width="1357" data-file-height="628"> </noscript><span class="lazy-image-placeholder" style="width: 220px;height: 102px;" data-src="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/e/e0/World_nuclear_weapons.png/220px-World_nuclear_weapons.png" data-width="220" data-height="102" data-srcset="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/e/e0/World_nuclear_weapons.png/330px-World_nuclear_weapons.png 1.5x, //upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/e/e0/World_nuclear_weapons.png/440px-World_nuclear_weapons.png 2x" data-class="mw-file-element"> </a> <figcaption> Large stockpile with global range (dark blue), smaller stockpile with global range (medium blue), small stockpile with regional range (light blue) </figcaption> </figure> As of 2021, humanity has about 13,410 nuclear weapons, thousands of which are on <a href="https://en-m-wikipedia-org.translate.goog/wiki/De-alerting?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB" title="De-alerting">hair-trigger alert</a>.<a href="https://en-m-wikipedia-org.translate.goog/wiki/Nuclear_holocaust?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB#cite_note-11">[11]</a><a href="https://en-m-wikipedia-org.translate.goog/wiki/Nuclear_holocaust?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB#cite_note-12">[12]</a> While stockpiles have been on the decline following the end of the Cold War, every <a href="https://en-m-wikipedia-org.translate.goog/wiki/List_of_states_with_nuclear_weapons?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB" title="List of states with nuclear weapons">nuclear country</a> is currently undergoing modernization of its nuclear arsenal.<a href="https://en-m-wikipedia-org.translate.goog/wiki/Nuclear_holocaust?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB#cite_note-13">[13]</a><a href="https://en-m-wikipedia-org.translate.goog/wiki/Nuclear_holocaust?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB#cite_note-14">[14]</a><a href="https://en-m-wikipedia-org.translate.goog/wiki/Nuclear_holocaust?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB#cite_note-15">[15]</a> The Bulletin advanced their symbolic <a href="https://en-m-wikipedia-org.translate.goog/wiki/Doomsday_Clock?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB" title="Doomsday Clock">Doomsday Clock</a> in 2015, citing among other factors "a nuclear arms race resulting from modernization of huge arsenals".<a href="https://en-m-wikipedia-org.translate.goog/wiki/Nuclear_holocaust?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB#cite_note-16">[16]</a> In January 2020, it was moved forward to 100 seconds before midnight.<a href="https://en-m-wikipedia-org.translate.goog/wiki/Nuclear_holocaust?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB#cite_note-james-17">[17]</a> In 2023, it was moved forward to 90 seconds before midnight. <a href="https://en-m-wikipedia-org.translate.goog/wiki/John_F._Kennedy?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB" title="John F. Kennedy">John F. Kennedy</a> estimated the probability of the <a href="https://en-m-wikipedia-org.translate.goog/wiki/Cuban_Missile_Crisis?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB" title="Cuban Missile Crisis">Cuban Missile Crisis</a> escalating to nuclear conflict as between 33% and 50%.<a href="https://en-m-wikipedia-org.translate.goog/wiki/Nuclear_holocaust?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB#cite_note-18">[18]</a><a href="https://en-m-wikipedia-org.translate.goog/wiki/Nuclear_holocaust?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB#cite_note-19">[19]</a> In a poll of experts at the Global Catastrophic Risk Conference in Oxford (17–20 July 2008), the <a href="https://en-m-wikipedia-org.translate.goog/wiki/Future_of_Humanity_Institute?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB" title="Future of Humanity Institute">Future of Humanity Institute</a> estimated the probability of complete human extinction by nuclear weapons at 1% within the century, the probability of 1 billion dead at 10% and the probability of 1 million dead at 30%.<a href="https://en-m-wikipedia-org.translate.goog/wiki/Nuclear_holocaust?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB#cite_note-20">[20]</a> These results reflect the median opinions of a group of experts, rather than a probabilistic model; the actual values may be much lower or higher. Scientists have argued that even a small-scale nuclear war between two countries, such as India and Pakistan, could have devastating global consequences and such local conflicts are more likely than full-scale nuclear war.<a href="https://en-m-wikipedia-org.translate.goog/wiki/Nuclear_holocaust?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB#cite_note-RobockRegional2007-21">[21]</a><a href="https://en-m-wikipedia-org.translate.goog/wiki/Nuclear_holocaust?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB#cite_note-ToonandRobock2010-22">[22]</a><a href="https://en-m-wikipedia-org.translate.goog/wiki/Nuclear_holocaust?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB#cite_note-NatureFood2022-23">[23]</a> </section> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading2 section-heading" onclick="mfTempOpenSection(3)"> <h2 id="Moral_importance_of_human_extinction_risk">Moral importance of human extinction risk</h2> <a role="button" href="https://en-m-wikipedia-org.translate.goog/w/index.php?title=Nuclear_holocaust&action=edit&section=3&_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB" title="Edit section: Moral importance of human extinction risk" class="cdx-button cdx-button--size-large cdx-button--fake-button cdx-button--fake-button--enabled cdx-button--icon-only cdx-button--weight-quiet "> edit </a> </div> <section class="mf-section-3 collapsible-block" id="mf-section-3"> <link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1236090951"> <div role="note" class="hatnote navigation-not-searchable"> Main article: <a href="https://en-m-wikipedia-org.translate.goog/wiki/Human_extinction?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB#Ethics" title="Human extinction">Human extinction § Ethics</a> </div> In his book <a href="https://en-m-wikipedia-org.translate.goog/wiki/Reasons_and_Persons?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB" title="Reasons and Persons">Reasons and Persons</a>, philosopher <a href="https://en-m-wikipedia-org.translate.goog/wiki/Derek_Parfit?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB" title="Derek Parfit">Derek Parfit</a> posed the following question:<a href="https://en-m-wikipedia-org.translate.goog/wiki/Nuclear_holocaust?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB#cite_note-24">[24]</a> <blockquote> Compare three outcomes: <ol> <li>Peace.</li> <li>A nuclear war that kills 99% of the world's existing population.</li> <li>A nuclear war that kills 100%.</li> </ol> (2) would be worse than (1), and (3) would be worse than (2). Which is the greater of these two differences? </blockquote> He continues that "Most people believe that the greater difference is between (1) and (2). I believe that the difference between (2) and (3) is very much greater." Thus, he argues, even if it would be bad if massive numbers of humans died, human extinction would itself be much worse because it prevents the existence of all future generations. And given the magnitude of the calamity were the human race to become extinct, <a href="https://en-m-wikipedia-org.translate.goog/wiki/Nick_Bostrom?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB" title="Nick Bostrom">Nick Bostrom</a> argues that there is an overwhelming moral imperative to reduce even small risks of <a href="https://en-m-wikipedia-org.translate.goog/wiki/Human_extinction?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB" title="Human extinction">human extinction</a>.<a href="https://en-m-wikipedia-org.translate.goog/wiki/Nuclear_holocaust?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB#cite_note-25">[25]</a> </section> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading2 section-heading" onclick="mfTempOpenSection(4)"> <h2 id="Likelihood_of_complete_human_extinction">Likelihood of complete human extinction</h2> <a role="button" href="https://en-m-wikipedia-org.translate.goog/w/index.php?title=Nuclear_holocaust&action=edit&section=4&_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB" title="Edit section: Likelihood of complete human extinction" class="cdx-button cdx-button--size-large cdx-button--fake-button cdx-button--fake-button--enabled cdx-button--icon-only cdx-button--weight-quiet "> edit </a> </div> <section class="mf-section-4 collapsible-block" id="mf-section-4"> <link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1236090951"> <div role="note" class="hatnote navigation-not-searchable"> See also: <a href="https://en-m-wikipedia-org.translate.goog/wiki/Cobalt_bomb?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB" title="Cobalt bomb">Cobalt bomb</a> and <a href="https://en-m-wikipedia-org.translate.goog/wiki/Nuclear_winter?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB" title="Nuclear winter">Nuclear winter</a> </div> <figure class="mw-default-size" typeof="mw:File/Thumb"> <a href="https://en-m-wikipedia-org.translate.goog/wiki/File:US_and_USSR_nuclear_stockpiles.svg?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB" class="mw-file-description"> <noscript> <img src="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/b/bb/US_and_USSR_nuclear_stockpiles.svg/220px-US_and_USSR_nuclear_stockpiles.svg.png" decoding="async" width="220" height="160" class="mw-file-element" data-file-width="600" data-file-height="435"> </noscript><span class="lazy-image-placeholder" style="width: 220px;height: 160px;" data-src="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/b/bb/US_and_USSR_nuclear_stockpiles.svg/220px-US_and_USSR_nuclear_stockpiles.svg.png" data-width="220" data-height="160" data-srcset="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/b/bb/US_and_USSR_nuclear_stockpiles.svg/330px-US_and_USSR_nuclear_stockpiles.svg.png 1.5x, //upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/b/bb/US_and_USSR_nuclear_stockpiles.svg/440px-US_and_USSR_nuclear_stockpiles.svg.png 2x" data-class="mw-file-element"> </a> <figcaption> The United States and <a href="https://en-m-wikipedia-org.translate.goog/wiki/Soviet_Union?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB" title="Soviet Union">Soviet Union</a>/Russia nuclear stockpiles, in <a href="https://en-m-wikipedia-org.translate.goog/wiki/Historical_nuclear_weapons_stockpiles_and_nuclear_tests_by_country?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB" title="Historical nuclear weapons stockpiles and nuclear tests by country">total number of nuclear bombs/warheads in existence</a> throughout the <a href="https://en-m-wikipedia-org.translate.goog/wiki/Cold_War?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB" title="Cold War">Cold War</a> and post-Cold War era. </figcaption> </figure> Many scholars have posited that a global thermonuclear war with Cold War-era stockpiles, or even with the current smaller stockpiles, may lead to human extinction. This position was bolstered when nuclear winter was first conceptualized and modelled in 1983. However, models from the past decade consider total extinction very unlikely, and suggest parts of the world would remain habitable.<a href="https://en-m-wikipedia-org.translate.goog/wiki/Nuclear_holocaust?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB#cite_note-tonn-26">[26]</a> Technically the risk may not be zero, as the climatic effects of nuclear war are uncertain and could theoretically be larger, but also smaller, than current models suggest. There could also be indirect risks, such as a societal collapse following nuclear war that can make humanity much more vulnerable to other existential threats.<a href="https://en-m-wikipedia-org.translate.goog/wiki/Nuclear_holocaust?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB#cite_note-bostrom2002-27">[27]</a> A related area of inquiry is: if a future nuclear arms race someday leads to larger stockpiles or more dangerous nuclear weapons than existed at the height of the Cold War, at what point could war with such weapons result in human extinction?<a href="https://en-m-wikipedia-org.translate.goog/wiki/Nuclear_holocaust?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB#cite_note-bostrom2002-27">[27]</a> Physicist <a href="https://en-m-wikipedia-org.translate.goog/wiki/Leo_Szilard?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB" title="Leo Szilard">Leo Szilard</a> warned in the 1950s that a deliberate <a href="https://en-m-wikipedia-org.translate.goog/wiki/Doomsday_device?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB" title="Doomsday device">doomsday device</a> could be constructed by surrounding powerful hydrogen bombs with a massive amount of cobalt. Cobalt has a half-life of five years, and its global fallout might, some physicists have posited, be able to clear out all human life via lethal radiation intensity. The main motivation for building a cobalt bomb in this scenario is its reduced expense compared with the arsenals possessed by superpowers; such a doomsday device does not need to be launched before detonation and thus does not require expensive missile delivery systems, and the hydrogen bombs do not need to be miniaturized for delivery via missile. The system for triggering it might have to be completely automated, in order for the deterrent to be effective. A modern twist might be to also lace the bombs with aerosols designed to exacerbate nuclear winter. A major caveat is that nuclear fallout transfer between the northern and southern hemispheres is expected to be small; unless a bomb detonates in each hemisphere, the effect of a bomb detonated in one hemisphere on the other is diminished.<a href="https://en-m-wikipedia-org.translate.goog/wiki/Nuclear_holocaust?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB#cite_note-28">[28]</a> <link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1236090951"> <div role="note" class="hatnote navigation-not-searchable"> Further information: <a href="https://en-m-wikipedia-org.translate.goog/wiki/Human_extinction?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB#Probability" title="Human extinction">Human extinction § Probability</a> </div> </section> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading2 section-heading" onclick="mfTempOpenSection(5)"> <h2 id="Effects_of_nuclear_war">Effects of nuclear war</h2> <a role="button" href="https://en-m-wikipedia-org.translate.goog/w/index.php?title=Nuclear_holocaust&action=edit&section=5&_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB" title="Edit section: Effects of nuclear war" class="cdx-button cdx-button--size-large cdx-button--fake-button cdx-button--fake-button--enabled cdx-button--icon-only cdx-button--weight-quiet "> edit </a> </div> <section class="mf-section-5 collapsible-block" id="mf-section-5"> <figure class="mw-default-size" typeof="mw:File/Thumb"> <a href="https://en-m-wikipedia-org.translate.goog/wiki/File:Castle_Bravo_007.jpg?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB" class="mw-file-description"> <noscript> <img src="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/0/03/Castle_Bravo_007.jpg/220px-Castle_Bravo_007.jpg" decoding="async" width="220" height="176" class="mw-file-element" data-file-width="700" data-file-height="560"> </noscript><span class="lazy-image-placeholder" style="width: 220px;height: 176px;" data-src="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/0/03/Castle_Bravo_007.jpg/220px-Castle_Bravo_007.jpg" data-width="220" data-height="176" data-srcset="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/0/03/Castle_Bravo_007.jpg/330px-Castle_Bravo_007.jpg 1.5x, //upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/0/03/Castle_Bravo_007.jpg/440px-Castle_Bravo_007.jpg 2x" data-class="mw-file-element"> </a> <figcaption> <a href="https://en-m-wikipedia-org.translate.goog/wiki/Castle_Bravo?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB" title="Castle Bravo">Castle Bravo</a> nuclear test </figcaption> </figure> <link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1129693374"> <link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1246091330"> <link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1246091330"> <link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1246091330"> Historically, it has been difficult to estimate the total number of deaths resulting from a global nuclear exchange because scientists are continually discovering new effects of nuclear weapons, and also revising existing models. Early reports considered direct effects from nuclear blast and radiation and indirect effects from economic, social, and political disruption. In a 1979 report for the U.S. Senate, the <a href="https://en-m-wikipedia-org.translate.goog/wiki/Office_of_Technology_Assessment?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB" title="Office of Technology Assessment">Office of Technology Assessment</a> estimated casualties under different scenarios. For a full-scale <a href="https://en-m-wikipedia-org.translate.goog/wiki/Countervalue?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB" title="Countervalue">countervalue</a>/<a href="https://en-m-wikipedia-org.translate.goog/wiki/Counterforce?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB" title="Counterforce">counterforce</a> nuclear exchange between the U.S. and the Soviet Union, they predicted U.S. deaths from 35 to 77 percent (70 million to 160 million dead at the time), and Soviet deaths from 20 to 40 percent of the population.<a href="https://en-m-wikipedia-org.translate.goog/wiki/Nuclear_holocaust?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB#cite_note-Report1979-29">[29]</a> Although this report was made when nuclear stockpiles were at much higher levels than they are today, it also was made before the risk of nuclear winter was first theorized in the early 1980s. Additionally, it did not consider other secondary effects, such as electromagnetic pulses (EMP), and the ramifications they would have on modern technology and industry. <div class="mw-heading mw-heading3"> <h3 id="Nuclear_winter">Nuclear winter</h3> <a role="button" href="https://en-m-wikipedia-org.translate.goog/w/index.php?title=Nuclear_holocaust&action=edit&section=6&_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB" title="Edit section: Nuclear winter" class="cdx-button cdx-button--size-large cdx-button--fake-button cdx-button--fake-button--enabled cdx-button--icon-only cdx-button--weight-quiet "> edit </a> </div> <link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1236090951"> <div role="note" class="hatnote navigation-not-searchable"> Main article: <a href="https://en-m-wikipedia-org.translate.goog/wiki/Nuclear_winter?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB" title="Nuclear winter">Nuclear winter</a> </div> In the early 1980s, scientists began to consider the effects of smoke and soot arising from burning wood, plastics, and petroleum fuels in nuclear-devastated cities. It was speculated that the intense heat would carry these particulates to extremely high altitudes where they could drift for weeks and block out all but a fraction of the sun's light.<a href="https://en-m-wikipedia-org.translate.goog/wiki/Nuclear_holocaust?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB#cite_note-Britannica-30">[30]</a> A landmark 1983 study by the so-called TTAPS team (<a href="https://en-m-wikipedia-org.translate.goog/wiki/Richard_P._Turco?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB" title="Richard P. Turco">Richard P. Turco</a>, <a href="https://en-m-wikipedia-org.translate.goog/wiki/Owen_Toon?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB" title="Owen Toon">Owen Toon</a>, Thomas P. Ackerman, <a href="https://en-m-wikipedia-org.translate.goog/wiki/James_B._Pollack?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB" title="James B. Pollack">James B. Pollack</a> and <a href="https://en-m-wikipedia-org.translate.goog/wiki/Carl_Sagan?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB" title="Carl Sagan">Carl Sagan</a>) was the first to model these effects and coined the term "nuclear winter."<a href="https://en-m-wikipedia-org.translate.goog/wiki/Nuclear_holocaust?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB#cite_note-31">[31]</a> More recent studies make use of modern global circulation models and far greater computer power than was available for the 1980s studies. A 2007 study examined the consequences of a global nuclear war involving moderate to large portions of the current global arsenal.<a href="https://en-m-wikipedia-org.translate.goog/wiki/Nuclear_holocaust?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB#cite_note-Robock2007-32">[32]</a> The study found cooling by about 12–20 °C in much of the core farming regions of the US, Europe, Russia and China and as much as 35 °C in parts of Russia for the first two summer growing seasons. The changes they found were also much longer-lasting than previously thought, because their new model better represented entry of soot aerosols in the upper stratosphere, where precipitation does not occur, and therefore clearance was on the order of 10 years.<a href="https://en-m-wikipedia-org.translate.goog/wiki/Nuclear_holocaust?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB#cite_note-ToonandRobock2010-22">[22]</a> In addition, they found that global cooling caused a weakening of the global hydrological cycle, reducing global <a href="https://en-m-wikipedia-org.translate.goog/wiki/Precipitation_(meteorology)?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB" class="mw-redirect" title="Precipitation (meteorology)">precipitation</a> by about 45%. The authors did not discuss the implications for agriculture in depth, but noted that a 1986 study which assumed no food production for a year projected that "most of the people on the planet would run out of food and starve to death by then" and commented that their own results show that, "This period of no food production needs to be extended by many years, making the impacts of nuclear winter even worse than previously thought."<a href="https://en-m-wikipedia-org.translate.goog/wiki/Nuclear_holocaust?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB#cite_note-Robock2007-32">[32]</a> In contrast to the above investigations of global nuclear conflicts, studies have shown that even small-scale, regional nuclear conflicts could disrupt the global climate for a decade or more. In a regional nuclear conflict scenario where two opposing nations in the <a href="https://en-m-wikipedia-org.translate.goog/wiki/Subtropics?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB" title="Subtropics">subtropics</a> would each use 50 <a href="https://en-m-wikipedia-org.translate.goog/wiki/Atomic_bombings_of_Hiroshima_and_Nagasaki?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB" title="Atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki">Hiroshima</a>-sized nuclear weapons (about 15 kilotons each) on major populated centres, the researchers estimated as much as five million tons of soot would be released, which would produce a cooling of several degrees over large areas of <a href="https://en-m-wikipedia-org.translate.goog/wiki/North_America?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB" title="North America">North America</a> and <a href="https://en-m-wikipedia-org.translate.goog/wiki/Eurasia?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB" title="Eurasia">Eurasia</a>, including most of the grain-growing regions.<a href="https://en-m-wikipedia-org.translate.goog/wiki/Nuclear_holocaust?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB#cite_note-ScienceDaily-33">[33]</a><a href="https://en-m-wikipedia-org.translate.goog/wiki/Nuclear_holocaust?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB#cite_note-RobockRegional2007-21">[21]</a><a href="https://en-m-wikipedia-org.translate.goog/wiki/Nuclear_holocaust?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB#cite_note-ToonandRobock2010-22">[22]</a> The cooling would last for years, and according to the research, could be "catastrophic". Additionally, the analysis showed a 10% drop in average global precipitation, with the largest losses in the low latitudes due to failure of the monsoons. Regional nuclear conflicts could also inflict significant damage to the <a href="https://en-m-wikipedia-org.translate.goog/wiki/Ozone_layer?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB" title="Ozone layer">ozone layer</a>. A 2008 study found that a regional nuclear weapons exchange could create a near-global <a href="https://en-m-wikipedia-org.translate.goog/wiki/Ozone_hole?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB" class="mw-redirect" title="Ozone hole">ozone hole</a>, triggering human health problems and impacting agriculture for at least a decade.<a href="https://en-m-wikipedia-org.translate.goog/wiki/Nuclear_holocaust?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB#cite_note-Mills2008-34">[34]</a> This effect on the ozone would result from heat absorption by soot in the upper stratosphere, which would modify wind currents and draw in ozone-destroying nitrogen oxides. These high temperatures and nitrogen oxides would reduce ozone to the same dangerous levels that are experienced below the ozone hole above Antarctica every spring.<a href="https://en-m-wikipedia-org.translate.goog/wiki/Nuclear_holocaust?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB#cite_note-ToonandRobock2010-22">[22]</a> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading3"> <h3 id="Nuclear_famine">Nuclear famine</h3> <a role="button" href="https://en-m-wikipedia-org.translate.goog/w/index.php?title=Nuclear_holocaust&action=edit&section=7&_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB" title="Edit section: Nuclear famine" class="cdx-button cdx-button--size-large cdx-button--fake-button cdx-button--fake-button--enabled cdx-button--icon-only cdx-button--weight-quiet "> edit </a> </div> <link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1236090951"> <div role="note" class="hatnote navigation-not-searchable"> Main article: <a href="https://en-m-wikipedia-org.translate.goog/wiki/Nuclear_famine?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB" title="Nuclear famine">Nuclear famine</a> </div> It is difficult to estimate the number of casualties that would result from nuclear winter, but it is likely that the primary effect would be global famine (known as nuclear famine), wherein mass starvation occurs due to disrupted agricultural production and distribution.<a href="https://en-m-wikipedia-org.translate.goog/wiki/Nuclear_holocaust?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB#cite_note-35">[35]</a> In 2013 and 2022 reports, the <a href="https://en-m-wikipedia-org.translate.goog/wiki/International_Physicians_for_the_Prevention_of_Nuclear_War?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB" title="International Physicians for the Prevention of Nuclear War">International Physicians for the Prevention of Nuclear War</a> (IPPNW) voiced concerns that more than two billion people, about a third of the world's population, would be at risk of starvation in the event of a regional nuclear exchange between India and Pakistan, or by the use of even a small proportion of nuclear arms held by America and Russia.<a href="https://en-m-wikipedia-org.translate.goog/wiki/Nuclear_holocaust?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB#cite_note-IPPNWreport2013-36">[36]</a><a href="https://en-m-wikipedia-org.translate.goog/wiki/Nuclear_holocaust?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB#cite_note-IPPNWreport2022-37">[37]</a> Several independent studies[<a href="https://en-m-wikipedia-org.translate.goog/wiki/Wikipedia:Citation_needed?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB" title="Wikipedia:Citation needed">citation needed</a>] show corroborated conclusions that agricultural outputs would be significantly reduced for years by climatic changes driven by nuclear wars. Reduction of food supply would be further exacerbated by rising <a href="https://en-m-wikipedia-org.translate.goog/wiki/Food_prices?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB" title="Food prices">food prices</a>, affecting hundreds of millions of vulnerable people, especially in the poorest nations of the world. According to a peer-reviewed study published in the journal <a href="https://en-m-wikipedia-org.translate.goog/wiki/Nature_Food?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB" title="Nature Food">Nature Food</a> in August 2022,<a href="https://en-m-wikipedia-org.translate.goog/wiki/Nuclear_holocaust?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB#cite_note-NatureFood2022-23">[23]</a> a full-scale nuclear war between the U.S. and Russia might kill 360 million people directly and more than 5 billion people might die as a consequence from <a href="https://en-m-wikipedia-org.translate.goog/wiki/Starvation?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB" title="Starvation">starvation</a> due to soot created by firestorms after nuclear bombing. More than 2 billion people were projected to die as a consequence from a smaller-scale nuclear war between India and Pakistan. In the event of a nuclear war between Russia and the United States, 99% of the people in the United States, Russia, Europe, and China would die.<a href="https://en-m-wikipedia-org.translate.goog/wiki/Nuclear_holocaust?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB#cite_note-38">[38]</a> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading3"> <h3 id="Electromagnetic_pulse">Electromagnetic pulse</h3> <a role="button" href="https://en-m-wikipedia-org.translate.goog/w/index.php?title=Nuclear_holocaust&action=edit&section=8&_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB" title="Edit section: Electromagnetic pulse" class="cdx-button cdx-button--size-large cdx-button--fake-button cdx-button--fake-button--enabled cdx-button--icon-only cdx-button--weight-quiet "> edit </a> </div> <link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1236090951"> <div role="note" class="hatnote navigation-not-searchable"> See also: <a href="https://en-m-wikipedia-org.translate.goog/wiki/Nuclear_electromagnetic_pulse?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB" title="Nuclear electromagnetic pulse">Nuclear electromagnetic pulse</a> and <a href="https://en-m-wikipedia-org.translate.goog/wiki/High-altitude_nuclear_explosion?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB" title="High-altitude nuclear explosion">High-altitude nuclear explosion</a> </div> An <a href="https://en-m-wikipedia-org.translate.goog/wiki/Electromagnetic_pulse?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB" title="Electromagnetic pulse">electromagnetic pulse</a> (EMP) is a burst of electromagnetic radiation. Nuclear explosions create a pulse of electromagnetic radiation called a nuclear EMP or NEMP. Such EMP interference is known to be generally disruptive or damaging to electronic equipment.<a href="https://en-m-wikipedia-org.translate.goog/wiki/Nuclear_holocaust?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB#cite_note-science-39">[39]</a> By disabling electronics and their functioning, an EMP would disable hospitals, water treatment facilities, food storage facilities, and all electronic forms of communication, and thereby threaten key aspects of the modern human condition.[<a href="https://en-m-wikipedia-org.translate.goog/wiki/Wikipedia:Citation_needed?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB" title="Wikipedia:Citation needed">citation needed</a>] Certain EMP attacks could lead to a large loss of power for months or years.<a href="https://en-m-wikipedia-org.translate.goog/wiki/Nuclear_holocaust?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB#cite_note-EMP_report-40">[40]</a> Currently, failures of the power grid are dealt with using support from the outside. In the event of an EMP attack, such support would not exist and all damaged components, devices, and electronics would need to be completely replaced. In 2013, the US House of Representatives considered the "Secure High-voltage Infrastructure for Electricity from Lethal Damage Act" that would provide surge protection for some 300 large transformers around the country.<a href="https://en-m-wikipedia-org.translate.goog/wiki/Nuclear_holocaust?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB#cite_note-41">[41]</a> The problem of protecting civilian infrastructure from electromagnetic pulse has also been intensively studied throughout the European Union, and in particular by the United Kingdom.<a href="https://en-m-wikipedia-org.translate.goog/wiki/Nuclear_holocaust?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB#cite_note-42">[42]</a> While precautions have been taken, James Woolsey and the EMP Commission suggested that an EMP is the most significant threat to the U.S.<a href="https://en-m-wikipedia-org.translate.goog/wiki/Nuclear_holocaust?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB#cite_note-EMP_report-40">[40]</a><a href="https://en-m-wikipedia-org.translate.goog/wiki/Nuclear_holocaust?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB#cite_note-43">[43]</a> The risk of an EMP, either through solar or atmospheric activity or enemy attack, while not dismissed, was suggested to be overblown by the news media in a commentary in <a href="https://en-m-wikipedia-org.translate.goog/wiki/Physics_Today?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB" title="Physics Today">Physics Today</a>.<a href="https://en-m-wikipedia-org.translate.goog/wiki/Nuclear_holocaust?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB#cite_note-PT2016-44">[44]</a> Instead, the weapons from rogue states were still too small and uncoordinated to cause a massive EMP, underground infrastructure is sufficiently protected, and there will be enough warning time from continuous solar observatories like <a href="https://en-m-wikipedia-org.translate.goog/wiki/Solar_and_Heliospheric_Observatory?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB" title="Solar and Heliospheric Observatory">SOHO</a> to protect surface transformers should a devastating solar storm be detected.<a href="https://en-m-wikipedia-org.translate.goog/wiki/Nuclear_holocaust?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB#cite_note-PT2016-44">[44]</a> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading3"> <h3 id="Nuclear_fallout">Nuclear fallout</h3> <a role="button" href="https://en-m-wikipedia-org.translate.goog/w/index.php?title=Nuclear_holocaust&action=edit&section=9&_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB" title="Edit section: Nuclear fallout" class="cdx-button cdx-button--size-large cdx-button--fake-button cdx-button--fake-button--enabled cdx-button--icon-only cdx-button--weight-quiet "> edit </a> </div> <link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1236090951"> <div role="note" class="hatnote navigation-not-searchable"> Further information: <a href="https://en-m-wikipedia-org.translate.goog/wiki/Nuclear_fallout?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB" title="Nuclear fallout">Nuclear fallout</a> </div> One part of nuclear holocaust is worldwide fallout, such <a href="https://en-m-wikipedia-org.translate.goog/wiki/Global_fallout?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB" class="mw-redirect" title="Global fallout">global fallout</a> has happened as a result of past <a href="https://en-m-wikipedia-org.translate.goog/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_testing?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB" title="Nuclear weapons testing">nuclear weapons testing</a>, numbering in the thousands, with many being atmospheric. A fast increase of global <a href="https://en-m-wikipedia-org.translate.goog/wiki/Background_radiation?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB" title="Background radiation">background radiation</a>, peaking in 1963 (the <a href="https://en-m-wikipedia-org.translate.goog/wiki/Bomb_pulse?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB" title="Bomb pulse">Bomb pulse</a>) urged, among other things states to sign <a href="https://en-m-wikipedia-org.translate.goog/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_testing?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB#Treaties_against_testing" title="Nuclear weapons testing">bans on nuclear weapons testing</a>. The global fallout has caused deaths, for example through increased cancer rates, of about 2.4 million people globally according to 2020 estimates, while older placed them in the hundreds of thousands.<a href="https://en-m-wikipedia-org.translate.goog/wiki/Nuclear_holocaust?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB#cite_note-s257-45">[45]</a> Nuclear fallout is the residual radioactive dust and ash propelled into the upper atmosphere following a nuclear explosion.<a href="https://en-m-wikipedia-org.translate.goog/wiki/Nuclear_holocaust?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB#cite_note-46">[46]</a> Fallout is usually limited to the immediate area, and can only spread for hundreds of kilometers from the explosion site if the explosion is high enough in the atmosphere. Fallout may get <a href="https://en-m-wikipedia-org.translate.goog/wiki/Entrainment_(meteorology)?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB" title="Entrainment (meteorology)">entrained</a> with the products of a <a href="https://en-m-wikipedia-org.translate.goog/wiki/Pyrocumulus?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB" class="mw-redirect" title="Pyrocumulus">pyrocumulus</a> cloud and fall as black rain<a href="https://en-m-wikipedia-org.translate.goog/wiki/Nuclear_holocaust?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB#cite_note-47">[47]</a> (rain darkened by soot and other particulates). This radioactive dust, usually consisting of <a href="https://en-m-wikipedia-org.translate.goog/wiki/Fission_product?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB" class="mw-redirect" title="Fission product">fission products</a> mixed with bystanding atoms that are <a href="https://en-m-wikipedia-org.translate.goog/wiki/Neutron_activation?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB" title="Neutron activation">neutron activated by exposure</a>, is a highly dangerous kind of <a href="https://en-m-wikipedia-org.translate.goog/wiki/Radioactive_contamination?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB" title="Radioactive contamination">radioactive contamination</a>. The main radiation hazard from fallout is due to short-lived radionuclides external to the body.<a href="https://en-m-wikipedia-org.translate.goog/wiki/Nuclear_holocaust?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB#cite_note-AtomicArchive-48">[48]</a> While most of the particles carried by nuclear fallout decay rapidly, some radioactive particles will have half-lives of seconds to a few months. Some radioactive isotopes, like <a href="https://en-m-wikipedia-org.translate.goog/wiki/Strontium-90?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB" title="Strontium-90">strontium-90</a> and <a href="https://en-m-wikipedia-org.translate.goog/wiki/Caesium-137?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB" title="Caesium-137">caesium-137</a>, are very long-lived and will create radioactive hot spots for up to 5 years after the initial explosion.<a href="https://en-m-wikipedia-org.translate.goog/wiki/Nuclear_holocaust?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB#cite_note-AtomicArchive-48">[48]</a> Fallout and black rain may contaminate waterways, agriculture, and soil. Contact with radioactive materials can lead to radiation poisoning through external exposure or accidental consumption. In acute doses over a short amount of time radiation will lead to prodromal syndrome, bone marrow death, central nervous system death and gastrointestinal death.<a href="https://en-m-wikipedia-org.translate.goog/wiki/Nuclear_holocaust?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB#cite_note-Coggle_&_Lindop-49">[49]</a> Over longer periods of exposure to radiation, cancer becomes the main health risk. Long-term radiation exposure can also lead to in utero effects on human development and transgenerational genetic damage.<a href="https://en-m-wikipedia-org.translate.goog/wiki/Nuclear_holocaust?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB#cite_note-Coggle_&_Lindop-49">[49]</a><a href="https://en-m-wikipedia-org.translate.goog/wiki/Nuclear_holocaust?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB#cite_note-50">[50]</a> </section> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading2 section-heading" onclick="mfTempOpenSection(6)"> <h2 id="Origins_and_analysis_of_extinction_hypotheses">Origins and analysis of extinction hypotheses</h2> <a role="button" href="https://en-m-wikipedia-org.translate.goog/w/index.php?title=Nuclear_holocaust&action=edit&section=10&_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB" title="Edit section: Origins and analysis of extinction hypotheses" class="cdx-button cdx-button--size-large cdx-button--fake-button cdx-button--fake-button--enabled cdx-button--icon-only cdx-button--weight-quiet "> edit </a> </div> <section class="mf-section-6 collapsible-block" id="mf-section-6"> As a result of the extensive <a href="https://en-m-wikipedia-org.translate.goog/wiki/Nuclear_fallout?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB" title="Nuclear fallout">nuclear fallout</a> of the 1954 <a href="https://en-m-wikipedia-org.translate.goog/wiki/Castle_Bravo?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB" title="Castle Bravo">Castle Bravo</a> nuclear detonation, author <a href="https://en-m-wikipedia-org.translate.goog/wiki/Nevil_Shute?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB" title="Nevil Shute">Nevil Shute</a> wrote the popular novel <a href="https://en-m-wikipedia-org.translate.goog/wiki/On_the_Beach_(novel)?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB" title="On the Beach (novel)">On the Beach</a>, released in 1957. In this novel, so much fallout is generated in a nuclear war that all human life is extinguished. However, the premise that all of humanity would die following a nuclear war and only the "cockroaches would survive" is critically dealt with in the 1988 book <a href="https://en-m-wikipedia-org.translate.goog/wiki/Philip_J._Dolan?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB#Unclassified_publications" title="Philip J. Dolan">Would the Insects Inherit the Earth and Other Subjects of Concern to Those Who Worry About Nuclear War</a>, by nuclear weapons expert <a href="https://en-m-wikipedia-org.translate.goog/wiki/Philip_J._Dolan?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB" title="Philip J. Dolan">Philip J. Dolan</a>. Based upon studies on the effects of the massive hydrogen bombs at the <a href="https://en-m-wikipedia-org.translate.goog/wiki/Bikini_Atoll?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB" title="Bikini Atoll">Bikini Atoll</a> and <a href="https://en-m-wikipedia-org.translate.goog/wiki/Eniwetok_Atoll?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB" class="mw-redirect" title="Eniwetok Atoll">Eniwetok Atoll</a>, Dolan refutes the theory that some small plant specimenes and bacteria would be the only lifeforms to survive an all-out nuclear war. All the mentioned tests witnessed full recovery of the local <a href="https://en-m-wikipedia-org.translate.goog/wiki/Ecosystem?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB" title="Ecosystem">ecosystem</a>.<a href="https://en-m-wikipedia-org.translate.goog/wiki/Nuclear_holocaust?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB#cite_note-51">[51]</a> In 1982, <a href="https://en-m-wikipedia-org.translate.goog/wiki/Nuclear_disarmament?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB" title="Nuclear disarmament">nuclear disarmament</a> activist <a href="https://en-m-wikipedia-org.translate.goog/wiki/Jonathan_Schell?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB" title="Jonathan Schell">Jonathan Schell</a> published <a href="https://en-m-wikipedia-org.translate.goog/wiki/The_Fate_of_the_Earth?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB" title="The Fate of the Earth">The Fate of the Earth</a>, which is regarded by many to be the first carefully argued presentation that concluded that extinction is a significant possibility from nuclear war. However, the assumptions made in this book have been thoroughly analyzed and determined to be "quite dubious".<a href="https://en-m-wikipedia-org.translate.goog/wiki/Nuclear_holocaust?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB#cite_note-The_fate_of_extinction_arguments-52">[52]</a> The impetus for Schell's work, according to physicist Brian Martin, was: <blockquote> The implicit premise [...] that if people are not taking action on the issue, they must not perceive it as threatening enough. Perhaps if the thought of 500 million people dying in a nuclear war is not enough to stimulate action, then the thought of extinction will. Indeed, Schell explicitly advocates use of the fear of extinction as the basis for inspiring the "complete rearrangement of world politics" (p. 221)<a href="https://en-m-wikipedia-org.translate.goog/wiki/Nuclear_holocaust?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB#cite_note-The_fate_of_extinction_arguments-52">[52]</a> </blockquote> The belief in "overkill" is also commonly encountered, with an example being the following statement made by nuclear disarmament activist <a href="https://en-m-wikipedia-org.translate.goog/wiki/Philip_Noel-Baker?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB" title="Philip Noel-Baker">Philip Noel-Baker</a> in 1971: "Both the US and the Soviet Union now possess nuclear stockpiles large enough to exterminate mankind three or four – some say ten – times over". Brian Martin suggested that the origin of this belief was from "crude linear extrapolations" of the bombing of Hiroshima. He said that if the bomb dropped on Hiroshima had been 1,000 times as powerful, it could not have killed 1,000 times as many people.<a href="https://en-m-wikipedia-org.translate.goog/wiki/Nuclear_holocaust?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB#cite_note-ReferenceB-5">[5]</a> Similarly, it is common to see stated that the combined explosive energy released in the entirety of <a href="https://en-m-wikipedia-org.translate.goog/wiki/World_War_II?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB" title="World War II">World War II</a> was about 3 megatons, while a nuclear war with warhead stockpiles at Cold War highs would release 6000 WWII's of explosive energy.<a href="https://en-m-wikipedia-org.translate.goog/wiki/Nuclear_holocaust?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB#cite_note-53">[53]</a> An estimate for the necessary amount of fallout to begin to have the potential of causing human extinction is regarded by physicist and disarmament activist <a href="https://en-m-wikipedia-org.translate.goog/wiki/Joseph_Rotblat?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB" title="Joseph Rotblat">Joseph Rotblat</a> to be 10 to 100 times the megatonnage in nuclear arsenals as they stood in 1976; however, with the world megatonnage decreasing since the Cold War ended this possibility remains hypothetical.<a href="https://en-m-wikipedia-org.translate.goog/wiki/Nuclear_holocaust?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB#cite_note-ReferenceB-5">[5]</a> <figure typeof="mw:File/Thumb"> <a href="https://en-m-wikipedia-org.translate.goog/wiki/File:NuclearTestUS.gif?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB" class="mw-file-description"> <noscript> <img src="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/1/14/NuclearTestUS.gif/300px-NuclearTestUS.gif" decoding="async" width="300" height="169" class="mw-file-element" data-file-width="380" data-file-height="214"> </noscript><span class="lazy-image-placeholder" style="width: 300px;height: 169px;" data-src="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/1/14/NuclearTestUS.gif/300px-NuclearTestUS.gif" data-width="300" data-height="169" data-srcset="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/1/14/NuclearTestUS.gif 1.5x" data-class="mw-file-element"> </a> <figcaption> The massive use and deployment of nuclear weapons are commonly theorized to yield enough global destructive potential to render large parts of the Earth uninhabitable. </figcaption> </figure> According to the 1980 <a href="https://en-m-wikipedia-org.translate.goog/wiki/United_Nations?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB" title="United Nations">United Nations</a> report General and Complete Disarmament: Comprehensive Study on Nuclear Weapons: Report of the Secretary-General, it was estimated that there were a total of about 40,000 <a href="https://en-m-wikipedia-org.translate.goog/wiki/Historical_nuclear_weapons_stockpiles_and_nuclear_tests_by_country?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB" title="Historical nuclear weapons stockpiles and nuclear tests by country">nuclear warheads in existence</a> at that time, with a potential combined explosive yield of approximately 13,000 <a href="https://en-m-wikipedia-org.translate.goog/wiki/TNT_equivalent?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB" title="TNT equivalent">megatons</a>. By comparison – in the <a href="https://en-m-wikipedia-org.translate.goog/wiki/Timeline_of_volcanism_on_Earth?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB" title="Timeline of volcanism on Earth">timeline of volcanism on Earth</a> – the <a href="https://en-m-wikipedia-org.translate.goog/wiki/1815_eruption_of_Mount_Tambora?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB" title="1815 eruption of Mount Tambora">1815 eruption</a> of <a href="https://en-m-wikipedia-org.translate.goog/wiki/Mount_Tambora?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB" title="Mount Tambora">Mount Tambora</a> exploded with a force of roughly 30,000 megatons,<a href="https://en-m-wikipedia-org.translate.goog/wiki/Nuclear_holocaust?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB#cite_note-54">[54]</a> and ejected 160 km3 (38 cu mi) of mostly rock and <a href="https://en-m-wikipedia-org.translate.goog/wiki/Tephra?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB" title="Tephra">tephra</a>,<a href="https://en-m-wikipedia-org.translate.goog/wiki/Nuclear_holocaust?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB#cite_note-Stothers1984-55">[55]</a> which included 120 million <a href="https://en-m-wikipedia-org.translate.goog/wiki/Tonne?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB" title="Tonne">tonnes</a> of <a href="https://en-m-wikipedia-org.translate.goog/wiki/Sulfur_dioxide?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB" title="Sulfur dioxide">sulfur dioxide</a> as <a href="https://en-m-wikipedia-org.translate.goog/wiki/Mount_Tambora?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB#Global_effects" title="Mount Tambora">an upper estimate</a>, turning 1816 into the "<a href="https://en-m-wikipedia-org.translate.goog/wiki/Year_Without_a_Summer?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB" title="Year Without a Summer">year without a summer</a>" due to the levels of <a href="https://en-m-wikipedia-org.translate.goog/wiki/Global_dimming?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB" title="Global dimming">global dimming</a> <a href="https://en-m-wikipedia-org.translate.goog/wiki/Sulfate?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB" title="Sulfate">sulfate</a> aerosols and ash expelled.<a href="https://en-m-wikipedia-org.translate.goog/wiki/Nuclear_holocaust?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB#cite_note-Oppenheimer2003-56">[56]</a> The larger <a href="https://en-m-wikipedia-org.translate.goog/wiki/Lake_Toba?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB#Major_eruption" title="Lake Toba">Mount Toba eruption</a>, which occurred approximately 74,000 years ago, produced an estimated 2,800 km3 (670 cu mi) of tephra<a href="https://en-m-wikipedia-org.translate.goog/wiki/Nuclear_holocaust?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB#cite_note-USGS-57">[57]</a> and 6,000 million tonnes (6.6×109 short tons) of sulfur dioxide,<a href="https://en-m-wikipedia-org.translate.goog/wiki/Nuclear_holocaust?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB#cite_note-robock2009-58">[58]</a><a href="https://en-m-wikipedia-org.translate.goog/wiki/Nuclear_holocaust?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB#cite_note-59">[59]</a> with a possible explosion force of 20,000,000 megatons (Mt) of TNT, forming <a href="https://en-m-wikipedia-org.translate.goog/wiki/Lake_Toba?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB" title="Lake Toba">Lake Toba</a> and reducing the human population to mere tens of thousands. The <a href="https://en-m-wikipedia-org.translate.goog/wiki/Chicxulub_impact?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB" class="mw-redirect" title="Chicxulub impact">Chicxulub impact</a>, connected with the <a href="https://en-m-wikipedia-org.translate.goog/wiki/Extinction_of_the_dinosaurs?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB" class="mw-redirect" title="Extinction of the dinosaurs">extinction of the dinosaurs</a>, corresponds to at least 70,000,000 Mt of energy, which is roughly 7000 times the combined maximum arsenal of the US and Soviet Union. Comparisons with <a href="https://en-m-wikipedia-org.translate.goog/wiki/Supervolcanos?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB" class="mw-redirect" title="Supervolcanos">supervolcanos</a> are more misleading than helpful due to the different <a href="https://en-m-wikipedia-org.translate.goog/wiki/Aerosol?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB" title="Aerosol">aerosols</a> released, the likely <a href="https://en-m-wikipedia-org.translate.goog/wiki/Air_burst?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB" title="Air burst">air burst</a> fuzing height of nuclear weapons and the globally scattered location of these potential nuclear detonations all being in contrast to the singular and subterranean nature of a supervolcanic eruption.<a href="https://en-m-wikipedia-org.translate.goog/wiki/Nuclear_holocaust?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB#cite_note-ReferenceA-60">[60]</a> Moreover, assuming the entire world stockpile of weapons were grouped together, it would be difficult due to the <a href="https://en-m-wikipedia-org.translate.goog/wiki/Nuclear_fratricide?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB" title="Nuclear fratricide">nuclear fratricide</a> effect to ensure the individual weapons would detonate all at once. Nonetheless, many people believe that a full-scale nuclear war would result, through the nuclear winter effect, in the <a href="https://en-m-wikipedia-org.translate.goog/wiki/Human_extinction?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB" title="Human extinction">extinction of the human species</a>, though not all analysts agree on the assumptions put into these nuclear winter models.<a href="https://en-m-wikipedia-org.translate.goog/wiki/Nuclear_holocaust?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB#cite_note-bmartin.cc-3">[3]</a> </section> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading2 section-heading" onclick="mfTempOpenSection(7)"> <h2 id="See_also">See also</h2> <a role="button" href="https://en-m-wikipedia-org.translate.goog/w/index.php?title=Nuclear_holocaust&action=edit&section=11&_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB" title="Edit section: See also" class="cdx-button cdx-button--size-large cdx-button--fake-button cdx-button--fake-button--enabled cdx-button--icon-only cdx-button--weight-quiet "> edit </a> </div> <section class="mf-section-7 collapsible-block" id="mf-section-7"> <ul> <li><a href="https://en-m-wikipedia-org.translate.goog/wiki/Second_Cold_War?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB" title="Second Cold War">Second Cold War</a> – Term referring to heightened tensions in the 21st century</li> <li><a href="https://en-m-wikipedia-org.translate.goog/wiki/Environmental_impact_of_war?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB" title="Environmental impact of war">Environmental impact of war</a> – Environmental problems caused by warfare</li> <li><a href="https://en-m-wikipedia-org.translate.goog/wiki/Global_catastrophic_risk?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB" title="Global catastrophic risk">Global catastrophic risk</a> – Hypothetical global-scale disaster risk</li> <li><a href="https://en-m-wikipedia-org.translate.goog/wiki/Human_extinction?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB" title="Human extinction">Human extinction</a> – Hypothetical end of the human species</li> <li><a href="https://en-m-wikipedia-org.translate.goog/wiki/List_of_nuclear_holocaust_fiction?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB" title="List of nuclear holocaust fiction">List of nuclear holocaust fiction</a></li> <li><a href="https://en-m-wikipedia-org.translate.goog/wiki/Nuclear_anxiety?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB" title="Nuclear anxiety">Nuclear anxiety</a> – Fear of nuclear war</li> <li><a href="https://en-m-wikipedia-org.translate.goog/wiki/Nuclear_terrorism?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB" title="Nuclear terrorism">Nuclear terrorism</a> – Terrorism involving nuclear material or weapons</li> <li><a href="https://en-m-wikipedia-org.translate.goog/wiki/Silurian_hypothesis?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB" title="Silurian hypothesis">Silurian hypothesis</a> – Thought experiment to assess ability to detect evidence of a prior advanced civilization</li> <li><a href="https://en-m-wikipedia-org.translate.goog/wiki/World_War_III?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB" title="World War III">World War III</a> – Hypothetical future global conflict</li> </ul> </section> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading2 section-heading" onclick="mfTempOpenSection(8)"> <h2 id="References">References</h2> <a role="button" href="https://en-m-wikipedia-org.translate.goog/w/index.php?title=Nuclear_holocaust&action=edit&section=12&_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB" title="Edit section: References" class="cdx-button cdx-button--size-large cdx-button--fake-button cdx-button--fake-button--enabled cdx-button--icon-only cdx-button--weight-quiet "> edit </a> </div> <section class="mf-section-8 collapsible-block" id="mf-section-8"> <style data-mw-deduplicate="TemplateStyles:r1239543626">.mw-parser-output .reflist{margin-bottom:0.5em;list-style-type:decimal}@media screen{.mw-parser-output .reflist{font-size:90%}}.mw-parser-output .reflist .references{font-size:100%;margin-bottom:0;list-style-type:inherit}.mw-parser-output .reflist-columns-2{column-width:30em}.mw-parser-output .reflist-columns-3{column-width:25em}.mw-parser-output .reflist-columns{margin-top:0.3em}.mw-parser-output .reflist-columns ol{margin-top:0}.mw-parser-output .reflist-columns li{page-break-inside:avoid;break-inside:avoid-column}.mw-parser-output .reflist-upper-alpha{list-style-type:upper-alpha}.mw-parser-output .reflist-upper-roman{list-style-type:upper-roman}.mw-parser-output .reflist-lower-alpha{list-style-type:lower-alpha}.mw-parser-output .reflist-lower-greek{list-style-type:lower-greek}.mw-parser-output .reflist-lower-roman{list-style-type:lower-roman}</style> <div class="reflist reflist-columns references-column-width" style="column-width: 30em;"> <ol class="references"> <li id="cite_note-x978-1"><a href="https://en-m-wikipedia-org.translate.goog/wiki/Nuclear_holocaust?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB#cite_ref-x978_1-0">^</a> <style data-mw-deduplicate="TemplateStyles:r1238218222">.mw-parser-output cite.citation{font-style:inherit;word-wrap:break-word}.mw-parser-output .citation q{quotes:"\"""\"""'""'"}.mw-parser-output .citation:target{background-color:rgba(0,127,255,0.133)}.mw-parser-output .id-lock-free.id-lock-free a{background:url("//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/6/65/Lock-green.svg")right 0.1em center/9px no-repeat}.mw-parser-output .id-lock-limited.id-lock-limited a,.mw-parser-output .id-lock-registration.id-lock-registration a{background:url("//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/d/d6/Lock-gray-alt-2.svg")right 0.1em center/9px no-repeat}.mw-parser-output .id-lock-subscription.id-lock-subscription a{background:url("//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/a/aa/Lock-red-alt-2.svg")right 0.1em center/9px no-repeat}.mw-parser-output .cs1-ws-icon a{background:url("//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/4c/Wikisource-logo.svg")right 0.1em center/12px no-repeat}body:not(.skin-timeless):not(.skin-minerva) .mw-parser-output .id-lock-free a,body:not(.skin-timeless):not(.skin-minerva) .mw-parser-output .id-lock-limited a,body:not(.skin-timeless):not(.skin-minerva) .mw-parser-output .id-lock-registration a,body:not(.skin-timeless):not(.skin-minerva) .mw-parser-output .id-lock-subscription a,body:not(.skin-timeless):not(.skin-minerva) .mw-parser-output .cs1-ws-icon a{background-size:contain;padding:0 1em 0 0}.mw-parser-output .cs1-code{color:inherit;background:inherit;border:none;padding:inherit}.mw-parser-output .cs1-hidden-error{display:none;color:var(--color-error,#d33)}.mw-parser-output .cs1-visible-error{color:var(--color-error,#d33)}.mw-parser-output .cs1-maint{display:none;color:#085;margin-left:0.3em}.mw-parser-output .cs1-kern-left{padding-left:0.2em}.mw-parser-output .cs1-kern-right{padding-right:0.2em}.mw-parser-output .citation .mw-selflink{font-weight:inherit}@media screen{.mw-parser-output .cs1-format{font-size:95%}html.skin-theme-clientpref-night .mw-parser-output .cs1-maint{color:#18911f}}@media screen and (prefers-color-scheme:dark){html.skin-theme-clientpref-os .mw-parser-output .cs1-maint{color:#18911f}}</style><cite id="CITEREFFeeBrown2004" class="citation journal cs1">Fee, Elizabeth; Brown, Theodore M. (2004). <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://translate.google.com/website?sl=auto&tl=en&hl=en-GB&u=https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1449821">"Dispelling the Specter of Nuclear Holocaust"</a>. American Journal of Public Health. 94 (1): 36. <a href="https://en-m-wikipedia-org.translate.goog/wiki/Doi_(identifier)?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB" class="mw-redirect" title="Doi (identifier)">doi</a>:<a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://translate.google.com/website?sl=auto&tl=en&hl=en-GB&u=https://doi.org/10.2105%252FAJPH.94.1.36">10.2105/AJPH.94.1.36</a>. <a href="https://en-m-wikipedia-org.translate.goog/wiki/ISSN_(identifier)?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB" class="mw-redirect" title="ISSN (identifier)">ISSN</a> <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://translate.google.com/website?sl=auto&tl=en&hl=en-GB&u=https://search.worldcat.org/issn/0090-0036">0090-0036</a>. <a href="https://en-m-wikipedia-org.translate.goog/wiki/PMC_(identifier)?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB" class="mw-redirect" title="PMC (identifier)">PMC</a> <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://translate.google.com/website?sl=auto&tl=en&hl=en-GB&u=https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1449821">1449821</a>. <a href="https://en-m-wikipedia-org.translate.goog/wiki/PMID_(identifier)?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB" class="mw-redirect" title="PMID (identifier)">PMID</a> <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://translate.google.com/website?sl=auto&tl=en&hl=en-GB&u=https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/14713693">14713693</a>.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=article&rft.jtitle=American+Journal+of+Public+Health&rft.atitle=Dispelling+the+Specter+of+Nuclear+Holocaust&rft.volume=94&rft.issue=1&rft.pages=36&rft.date=2004&rft_id=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov%2Fpmc%2Farticles%2FPMC1449821%23id-name%3DPMC&rft.issn=0090-0036&rft_id=info%3Apmid%2F14713693&rft_id=info%3Adoi%2F10.2105%2FAJPH.94.1.36&rft.aulast=Fee&rft.aufirst=Elizabeth&rft.au=Brown%2C+Theodore+M.&rft_id=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov%2Fpmc%2Farticles%2FPMC1449821&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3ANuclear+holocaust" class="Z3988"></li> <li id="cite_note-RobockSAD-2"><a href="https://en-m-wikipedia-org.translate.goog/wiki/Nuclear_holocaust?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB#cite_ref-RobockSAD_2-0">^</a> <link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite id="CITEREFRobockToon2012" class="citation journal cs1">Robock, Alan; Toon, Owen B (2012). <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://translate.google.com/website?sl=auto&tl=en&hl=en-GB&u=https://web.archive.org/web/20200402175725/http://thebulletin.org/2012/september/self-assured-destruction-climate-impacts-nuclear-war">"Self-assured destruction: The climate impacts of nuclear war"</a>. 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Retrieved 15 July 2024.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=unknown&rft.jtitle=worf.eh.doe.gov&rft.atitle=Archived+copy&rft_id=http%3A%2F%2Fworf.eh.doe.gov%2Fdata%2Fihp1c%2F0863_a.pdf&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3ANuclear+holocaust" class="Z3988"><code class="cs1-code">{{<a href="https://en-m-wikipedia-org.translate.goog/wiki/Template:Cite_web?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB" title="Template:Cite web">cite web</a>}}</code>: CS1 maint: archived copy as title (<a href="https://en-m-wikipedia-org.translate.goog/wiki/Category:CS1_maint:_archived_copy_as_title?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB" title="Category:CS1 maint: archived copy as title">link</a>)</li> <li id="cite_note-The_fate_of_extinction_arguments-52">^ <a href="https://en-m-wikipedia-org.translate.goog/wiki/Nuclear_holocaust?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB#cite_ref-The_fate_of_extinction_arguments_52-0">a</a> <a href="https://en-m-wikipedia-org.translate.goog/wiki/Nuclear_holocaust?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB#cite_ref-The_fate_of_extinction_arguments_52-1">b</a> <link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite id="CITEREFMartin,_Brian1983" class="citation web cs1">Martin, Brian (March 1983). <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://translate.google.com/website?sl=auto&tl=en&hl=en-GB&u=http://www.bmartin.cc/pubs/83fea.html">"The fate of extinction arguments"</a>. 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Symbiotic Planet: A New Look At Evolution. Houston: Basic Book.</li> </ol> </div> </section> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading2 section-heading" onclick="mfTempOpenSection(9)"> <h2 id="External_links">External links</h2> <a role="button" href="https://en-m-wikipedia-org.translate.goog/w/index.php?title=Nuclear_holocaust&action=edit&section=13&_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB" title="Edit section: External links" class="cdx-button cdx-button--size-large cdx-button--fake-button cdx-button--fake-button--enabled cdx-button--icon-only cdx-button--weight-quiet "> edit </a> </div> <section class="mf-section-9 collapsible-block" id="mf-section-9"> <ul> <li><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://translate.google.com/website?sl=auto&tl=en&hl=en-GB&u=http://www.wsu.edu/~brians/nuclear/index.htm">Nuclear Holocausts: Atomic War in Fiction, By Paul Brians, Professor of English, Washington State University, Pullman, Washington</a></li> <li><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://translate.google.com/website?sl=auto&tl=en&hl=en-GB&u=http://www.overcomingbias.com/2012/11/nuclear-winter-and-human-extinction-qa-with-luke-oman.html">Brief Q&A</a> with <a href="https://en-m-wikipedia-org.translate.goog/w/index.php?title=Luke_Oman&action=edit&redlink=1&_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB" class="new" title="Luke Oman (page does not exist)">Luke Oman</a> on the unlikeliness of human extinction from nuclear war</li> </ul> <div class="navbox-styles"> <link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1129693374"> <style data-mw-deduplicate="TemplateStyles:r1236075235">.mw-parser-output .navbox{box-sizing:border-box;border:1px solid #a2a9b1;width:100%;clear:both;font-size:88%;text-align:center;padding:1px;margin:1em auto 0}.mw-parser-output .navbox .navbox{margin-top:0}.mw-parser-output .navbox+.navbox,.mw-parser-output .navbox+.navbox-styles+.navbox{margin-top:-1px}.mw-parser-output .navbox-inner,.mw-parser-output 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class="read-more-container"></div> </div> <div id="p-lang"> <h4>Languages</h4> <section> <ul id="p-variants" class="minerva-languages"></ul> <ul class="minerva-languages"> <li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-ar mw-list-item"><a href="https://translate.google.com/website?sl=auto&tl=en&hl=en-GB&u=https://ar.wikipedia.org/wiki/%25D9%2585%25D8%25AD%25D8%25B1%25D9%2582%25D8%25A9_%25D9%2586%25D9%2588%25D9%2588%25D9%258A%25D8%25A9" title="محرقة نووية – Arabic" lang="ar" hreflang="ar" data-title="محرقة نووية" data-language-autonym="العربية" data-language-local-name="Arabic" class="interlanguage-link-target">العربية</a></li> <li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-ca mw-list-item"><a href="https://translate.google.com/website?sl=auto&tl=en&hl=en-GB&u=https://ca.wikipedia.org/wiki/Holocaust_nuclear" title="Holocaust nuclear – Catalan" lang="ca" hreflang="ca" data-title="Holocaust nuclear" data-language-autonym="Català" data-language-local-name="Catalan" class="interlanguage-link-target">Català</a></li> <li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-cs mw-list-item"><a href="https://translate.google.com/website?sl=auto&tl=en&hl=en-GB&u=https://cs.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jadern%25C3%25BD_holokaust" title="Jaderný holokaust – Czech" lang="cs" hreflang="cs" data-title="Jaderný holokaust" data-language-autonym="Čeština" data-language-local-name="Czech" class="interlanguage-link-target">Čeština</a></li> <li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-de mw-list-item"><a href="https://translate.google.com/website?sl=auto&tl=en&hl=en-GB&u=https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuklearer_Holocaust" title="Nuklearer Holocaust – German" lang="de" hreflang="de" data-title="Nuklearer Holocaust" data-language-autonym="Deutsch" data-language-local-name="German" class="interlanguage-link-target">Deutsch</a></li> <li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-fa mw-list-item"><a href="https://translate.google.com/website?sl=auto&tl=en&hl=en-GB&u=https://fa.wikipedia.org/wiki/%25D9%2587%25D9%2588%25D9%2584%25D9%2588%25DA%25A9%25D8%25A7%25D8%25B3%25D8%25AA_%25D9%2587%25D8%25B3%25D8%25AA%25D9%2587%25E2%2580%258C%25D8%25A7%25DB%258C" title="هولوکاست هسته‌ای – Persian" lang="fa" hreflang="fa" data-title="هولوکاست هسته‌ای" data-language-autonym="فارسی" data-language-local-name="Persian" class="interlanguage-link-target">فارسی</a></li> <li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-fr mw-list-item"><a href="https://translate.google.com/website?sl=auto&tl=en&hl=en-GB&u=https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Holocauste_nucl%25C3%25A9aire" title="Holocauste nucléaire – French" lang="fr" hreflang="fr" data-title="Holocauste nucléaire" data-language-autonym="Français" data-language-local-name="French" class="interlanguage-link-target">Français</a></li> <li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-ko mw-list-item"><a href="https://translate.google.com/website?sl=auto&tl=en&hl=en-GB&u=https://ko.wikipedia.org/wiki/%25ED%2595%25B5%25EB%25AC%25B4%25EA%25B8%25B0_%25ED%2599%2580%25EB%25A1%259C%25EC%25BD%2594%25EC%258A%25A4%25ED%258A%25B8" title="핵무기 홀로코스트 – Korean" lang="ko" hreflang="ko" data-title="핵무기 홀로코스트" data-language-autonym="한국어" data-language-local-name="Korean" class="interlanguage-link-target">한국어</a></li> <li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-id mw-list-item"><a href="https://translate.google.com/website?sl=auto&tl=en&hl=en-GB&u=https://id.wikipedia.org/wiki/Holokaus_nuklir" title="Holokaus nuklir – Indonesian" lang="id" hreflang="id" data-title="Holokaus nuklir" data-language-autonym="Bahasa Indonesia" data-language-local-name="Indonesian" class="interlanguage-link-target">Bahasa Indonesia</a></li> <li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-it mw-list-item"><a href="https://translate.google.com/website?sl=auto&tl=en&hl=en-GB&u=https://it.wikipedia.org/wiki/Olocausto_nucleare" title="Olocausto nucleare – Italian" lang="it" hreflang="it" data-title="Olocausto nucleare" data-language-autonym="Italiano" data-language-local-name="Italian" class="interlanguage-link-target">Italiano</a></li> <li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-he mw-list-item"><a href="https://translate.google.com/website?sl=auto&tl=en&hl=en-GB&u=https://he.wikipedia.org/wiki/%25D7%25A9%25D7%2595%25D7%2590%25D7%2594_%25D7%2592%25D7%25A8%25D7%25A2%25D7%2599%25D7%25A0%25D7%2599%25D7%25AA" title="שואה גרעינית – Hebrew" lang="he" hreflang="he" data-title="שואה גרעינית" data-language-autonym="עברית" data-language-local-name="Hebrew" class="interlanguage-link-target">עברית</a></li> <li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-lt mw-list-item"><a href="https://translate.google.com/website?sl=auto&tl=en&hl=en-GB&u=https://lt.wikipedia.org/wiki/Branduolinis_holokaustas" title="Branduolinis holokaustas – Lithuanian" lang="lt" hreflang="lt" data-title="Branduolinis holokaustas" data-language-autonym="Lietuvių" data-language-local-name="Lithuanian" class="interlanguage-link-target">Lietuvių</a></li> <li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-hu mw-list-item"><a href="https://translate.google.com/website?sl=auto&tl=en&hl=en-GB&u=https://hu.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nukle%25C3%25A1ris_holokauszt" title="Nukleáris holokauszt – Hungarian" lang="hu" hreflang="hu" data-title="Nukleáris holokauszt" data-language-autonym="Magyar" data-language-local-name="Hungarian" class="interlanguage-link-target">Magyar</a></li> <li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-mk mw-list-item"><a href="https://translate.google.com/website?sl=auto&tl=en&hl=en-GB&u=https://mk.wikipedia.org/wiki/%25D0%2588%25D0%25B0%25D0%25B4%25D1%2580%25D0%25B5%25D0%25BD%25D0%25B0_%25D0%25BF%25D1%2580%25D0%25BE%25D0%25BF%25D0%25B0%25D1%2581%25D1%2582" title="Јадрена пропаст – Macedonian" lang="mk" hreflang="mk" data-title="Јадрена пропаст" data-language-autonym="Македонски" data-language-local-name="Macedonian" class="interlanguage-link-target">Македонски</a></li> <li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-ms mw-list-item"><a href="https://translate.google.com/website?sl=auto&tl=en&hl=en-GB&u=https://ms.wikipedia.org/wiki/Holokus_nuklear" title="Holokus nuklear – Malay" lang="ms" hreflang="ms" data-title="Holokus nuklear" data-language-autonym="Bahasa Melayu" data-language-local-name="Malay" class="interlanguage-link-target">Bahasa Melayu</a></li> <li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-pl mw-list-item"><a href="https://translate.google.com/website?sl=auto&tl=en&hl=en-GB&u=https://pl.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuklearna_zag%25C5%2582ada" title="Nuklearna zagłada – Polish" lang="pl" hreflang="pl" data-title="Nuklearna zagłada" data-language-autonym="Polski" data-language-local-name="Polish" class="interlanguage-link-target">Polski</a></li> <li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-pt mw-list-item"><a href="https://translate.google.com/website?sl=auto&tl=en&hl=en-GB&u=https://pt.wikipedia.org/wiki/Holocausto_nuclear" title="Holocausto nuclear – Portuguese" lang="pt" hreflang="pt" data-title="Holocausto nuclear" data-language-autonym="Português" data-language-local-name="Portuguese" class="interlanguage-link-target">Português</a></li> <li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-sr mw-list-item"><a href="https://translate.google.com/website?sl=auto&tl=en&hl=en-GB&u=https://sr.wikipedia.org/wiki/%25D0%259D%25D1%2583%25D0%25BA%25D0%25BB%25D0%25B5%25D0%25B0%25D1%2580%25D0%25BD%25D0%25B8_%25D1%2585%25D0%25BE%25D0%25BB%25D0%25BE%25D0%25BA%25D0%25B0%25D1%2583%25D1%2581%25D1%2582" title="Нуклеарни холокауст – Serbian" lang="sr" hreflang="sr" data-title="Нуклеарни холокауст" data-language-autonym="Српски / srpski" data-language-local-name="Serbian" class="interlanguage-link-target">Српски / srpski</a></li> <li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-sh mw-list-item"><a href="https://translate.google.com/website?sl=auto&tl=en&hl=en-GB&u=https://sh.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuklearni_holokaust" title="Nuklearni holokaust – Serbo-Croatian" lang="sh" hreflang="sh" data-title="Nuklearni holokaust" data-language-autonym="Srpskohrvatski / српскохрватски" data-language-local-name="Serbo-Croatian" class="interlanguage-link-target">Srpskohrvatski / српскохрватски</a></li> <li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-tr mw-list-item"><a href="https://translate.google.com/website?sl=auto&tl=en&hl=en-GB&u=https://tr.wikipedia.org/wiki/N%25C3%25BCkleer_holokost" title="Nükleer holokost – Turkish" lang="tr" hreflang="tr" data-title="Nükleer holokost" data-language-autonym="Türkçe" data-language-local-name="Turkish" class="interlanguage-link-target">Türkçe</a></li> <li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-vi mw-list-item"><a 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