Why Trump Decided Not to Attack Iran

<!DOCTYPE html> <html prefix="og: http://ogp.me/ns#" lang="en-US"> <head><script type="text/javascript" src="/_static/js/bundle-playback.js?v=HxkREWBo" charset="utf-8"></script> <script type="text/javascript" src="/_static/js/wombat.js?v=txqj7nKC" charset="utf-8"></script> <script>window.RufflePlayer=window.RufflePlayer||{};window.RufflePlayer.config={"autoplay":"on","unmuteOverlay":"hidden"};</script> <script type="text/javascript" src="/_static/js/ruffle/ruffle.js"></script> <script type="text/javascript"> __wm.init("https://web.archive.org/web"); __wm.wombat("https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/06/21/trump-fearing-casualties-aborts-iran-strike-at-last-minute/","20190808224206","https://web.archive.org/","web","/_static/", "1565304126"); </script> <link rel="stylesheet" type="text/css" href="/_static/css/banner-styles.css?v=S1zqJCYt" /> <link rel="stylesheet" type="text/css" href="/_static/css/iconochive.css?v=3PDvdIFv" />  <meta charset="utf-8"><script type="text/javascript">window.NREUM||(NREUM={}),__nr_require=function(e,n,t){function r(t){if(!n[t]){var o=n[t]={exports:{}};e[t][0].call(o.exports,function(n){var o=e[t][1][n];return r(o||n)},o,o.exports)}return n[t].exports}if("function"==typeof __nr_require)return __nr_require;for(var o=0;o<t.length;o++)r(t[o]);return r}({1:[function(e,n,t){function r(){}function o(e,n,t){return function(){return i(e,[c.now()].concat(u(arguments)),n?null:this,t),n?void 0:this}}var i=e("handle"),a=e(3),u=e(4),f=e("ee").get("tracer"),c=e("loader"),s=NREUM;"undefined"==typeof window.newrelic&&(newrelic=s);var p=["setPageViewName","setCustomAttribute","setErrorHandler","finished","addToTrace","inlineHit","addRelease"],d="api-",l=d+"ixn-";a(p,function(e,n){s[n]=o(d+n,!0,"api")}),s.addPageAction=o(d+"addPageAction",!0),s.setCurrentRouteName=o(d+"routeName",!0),n.exports=newrelic,s.interaction=function(){return(new r).get()};var m=r.prototype={createTracer:function(e,n){var t={},r=this,o="function"==typeof n;return i(l+"tracer",[c.now(),e,t],r),function(){if(f.emit((o?"":"no-")+"fn-start",[c.now(),r,o],t),o)try{return n.apply(this,arguments)}catch(e){throw f.emit("fn-err",[arguments,this,e],t),e}finally{f.emit("fn-end",[c.now()],t)}}}};a("actionText,setName,setAttribute,save,ignore,onEnd,getContext,end,get".split(","),function(e,n){m[n]=o(l+n)}),newrelic.noticeError=function(e,n){"string"==typeof e&&(e=new Error(e)),i("err",[e,c.now(),!1,n])}},{}],2:[function(e,n,t){function r(e,n){if(!o)return!1;if(e!==o)return!1;if(!n)return!0;if(!i)return!1;for(var t=i.split("."),r=n.split("."),a=0;a<r.length;a++)if(r[a]!==t[a])return!1;return!0}var o=null,i=null,a=/Version\/(\S+)\s+Safari/;if(navigator.userAgent){var u=navigator.userAgent,f=u.match(a);f&&u.indexOf("Chrome")===-1&&u.indexOf("Chromium")===-1&&(o="Safari",i=f[1])}n.exports={agent:o,version:i,match:r}},{}],3:[function(e,n,t){function r(e,n){var t=[],r="",i=0;for(r in e)o.call(e,r)&&(t[i]=n(r,e[r]),i+=1);return t}var o=Object.prototype.hasOwnProperty;n.exports=r},{}],4:[function(e,n,t){function r(e,n,t){n||(n=0),"undefined"==typeof t&&(t=e?e.length:0);for(var r=-1,o=t-n||0,i=Array(o<0?0:o);++r<o;)i[r]=e[n+r];return i}n.exports=r},{}],5:[function(e,n,t){n.exports={exists:"undefined"!=typeof window.performance&&window.performance.timing&&"undefined"!=typeof window.performance.timing.navigationStart}},{}],ee:[function(e,n,t){function r(){}function o(e){function n(e){return e&&e instanceof r?e:e?f(e,u,i):i()}function t(t,r,o,i){if(!d.aborted||i){e&&e(t,r,o);for(var a=n(o),u=v(t),f=u.length,c=0;c<f;c++)u[c].apply(a,r);var p=s[y[t]];return p&&p.push([b,t,r,a]),a}}function l(e,n){h[e]=v(e).concat(n)}function m(e,n){var t=h[e];if(t)for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++)t[r]===n&&t.splice(r,1)}function v(e){return h[e]||[]}function g(e){return p[e]=p[e]||o(t)}function w(e,n){c(e,function(e,t){n=n||"feature",y[t]=n,n in s||(s[n]=[])})}var h={},y={},b={on:l,addEventListener:l,removeEventListener:m,emit:t,get:g,listeners:v,context:n,buffer:w,abort:a,aborted:!1};return b}function i(){return new r}function a(){(s.api||s.feature)&&(d.aborted=!0,s=d.backlog={})}var u="nr@context",f=e("gos"),c=e(3),s={},p={},d=n.exports=o();d.backlog=s},{}],gos:[function(e,n,t){function r(e,n,t){if(o.call(e,n))return e[n];var r=t();if(Object.defineProperty&&Object.keys)try{return Object.defineProperty(e,n,{value:r,writable:!0,enumerable:!1}),r}catch(i){}return e[n]=r,r}var o=Object.prototype.hasOwnProperty;n.exports=r},{}],handle:[function(e,n,t){function r(e,n,t,r){o.buffer([e],r),o.emit(e,n,t)}var o=e("ee").get("handle");n.exports=r,r.ee=o},{}],id:[function(e,n,t){function r(e){var n=typeof e;return!e||"object"!==n&&"function"!==n?-1:e===window?0:a(e,i,function(){return o++})}var o=1,i="nr@id",a=e("gos");n.exports=r},{}],loader:[function(e,n,t){function r(){if(!E++){var e=x.info=NREUM.info,n=l.getElementsByTagName("script")[0];if(setTimeout(s.abort,3e4),!(e&&e.licenseKey&&e.applicationID&&n))return s.abort();c(y,function(n,t){e[n]||(e[n]=t)}),f("mark",["onload",a()+x.offset],null,"api");var t=l.createElement("script");t.src="https://"+e.agent,n.parentNode.insertBefore(t,n)}}function o(){"complete"===l.readyState&&i()}function i(){f("mark",["domContent",a()+x.offset],null,"api")}function a(){return O.exists&&performance.now?Math.round(performance.now()):(u=Math.max((new Date).getTime(),u))-x.offset}var u=(new Date).getTime(),f=e("handle"),c=e(3),s=e("ee"),p=e(2),d=window,l=d.document,m="addEventListener",v="attachEvent",g=d.XMLHttpRequest,w=g&&g.prototype;NREUM.o={ST:setTimeout,SI:d.setImmediate,CT:clearTimeout,XHR:g,REQ:d.Request,EV:d.Event,PR:d.Promise,MO:d.MutationObserver};var h=""+location,y={beacon:"bam.nr-data.net",errorBeacon:"bam.nr-data.net",agent:"js-agent.newrelic.com/nr-1130.min.js"},b=g&&w&&w[m]&&!/CriOS/.test(navigator.userAgent),x=n.exports={offset:u,now:a,origin:h,features:{},xhrWrappable:b,userAgent:p};e(1),l[m]?(l[m]("DOMContentLoaded",i,!1),d[m]("load",r,!1)):(l[v]("onreadystatechange",o),d[v]("onload",r)),f("mark",["firstbyte",u],null,"api");var E=0,O=e(5)},{}]},{},["loader"]);</script> <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1.0"> <title>Why Trump Decided Not to Attack Iran – Foreign Policy</title> <meta name="wapoGroupsX" content="default"> <meta name="google-site-verification" content="7Z5A6Xlt7BhqqooipJUtw0cu2IjSQ-_RnNbEA2c6pfc"> <meta name="apple-itunes-app" content="app-id=1034756405"> <meta name="pocket-site-verification" content="21de1071947281ccc893fa0bbfb1f6"/>  <link rel="canonical" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20190808224206/https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/06/21/trump-fearing-casualties-aborts-iran-strike-at-last-minute/">  <meta property="og:title" content="Why Trump Decided Not to Attack Iran"> <meta property="og:image" content="https://web.archive.org/web/20190808224206im_/https://foreignpolicy.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/GettyImages-1151088613.jpg"> <meta property="og:url" content="https://web.archive.org/web/20190808224206/https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/06/21/trump-fearing-casualties-aborts-iran-strike-at-last-minute/"> <meta property="og:description" content="Officials say the president is looking for a peaceful solution to the crisis."> <meta property="og:site_name" content="Foreign Policy"> <meta property="fb:app_id" content="107151292643652"/> <meta property="og:type" content="article"/>  <meta name="twitter:card" content="summary_large_image"> <meta name="twitter:site" content="@ForeignPolicy"> <meta name="twitter:title" content="Why Trump Decided Not to Attack Iran"> <meta name="twitter:description" content="Trump's hardline approach to Iran hits up against Trump's push to end costly Middle East conflicts"> <meta name="twitter:image" content="https://web.archive.org/web/20190808224206im_/https://foreignpolicy.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/GettyImages-1151088613.jpg"> <meta property="twitter:domain" value="foreignpolicy.com"/>  <meta property="article:author" content="Lara Seligman, Robbie Gramer"> <meta name="author" content="Lara Seligman, Robbie Gramer"> <meta name="application-name" content="Foreign Policy"> <meta name="apple-mobile-web-app-title" content="Foreign Policy"> <meta name="theme-color" content="#eb372e"> <meta name="msapplication-TileColor" content="#eb372e"> <meta name="msapplication-TileImage" content="https://foreignpolicy.com/wp-content/themes/foreign-policy-2017/assets/src/images/logos/favicon-256.png"> <link rel="apple-touch-icon" sizes="192x192" type="image/png" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20190808224206im_/https://foreignpolicy.com/wp-content/themes/foreign-policy-2017/assets/src/images/logos/favicon-192.png"> <link rel="icon" sizes="192x192" type="image/png" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20190808224206im_/https://foreignpolicy.com/wp-content/themes/foreign-policy-2017/assets/src/images/logos/favicon-192.png"> <link rel="icon" sizes="16x16 32x32" type="image/x-icon" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20190808224206im_/https://foreignpolicy.com/wp-content/themes/foreign-policy-2017/assets/src/images/logos/favicon.ico"> <script> window.FP = window.FP || {}; FP.Config = {"api":{"ip_access":"https:\/\/web.archive.org\/web\/20190808224206\/https:\/\/foreignpolicy.com\/r\/api\/ip-access\/","link_access":"https:\/\/web.archive.org\/web\/20190808224206\/https:\/\/foreignpolicy.com\/r\/api\/link-access\/{0}\/","users_by_id":"https:\/\/web.archive.org\/web\/20190808224206\/https:\/\/foreignpolicy.com\/r\/api\/users\/{0}\/"},"context":{"is_home":false,"is_sponsored":false,"is_events":false},"current_site_admin_hostname":"foreignpolicy.com","current_site_hostname":"foreignpolicy.com","fonts":[{"family":"Dala Moa","option":{"style":"normal","weight":800}},{"family":"Solido","option":{"style":"normal","weight":400}},{"family":"Tiempos","option":{"style":"normal","weight":400}},{"family":"Tiempos","option":{"style":"normal","weight":600}},{"family":"Solido","option":{"style":"normal","weight":800}},{"family":"Solido Condensed","option":{"style":"normal","weight":600}}],"is_production":true,"marketing":{"after_content_messaging":"<p>Like this article? Read an unlimited number of articles, plus access to our entire 47-year printed archive, the FP App, and the Digital Magazine when you <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/foreignpolicy.com\/subscribe?utm_source=AMP%20-%20Launched%2018_08_23&utm_medium=AMP&utm_campaign=Premium\">subscribe to FP Premium<\/a><\/strong>!<\/p>","after_content_messaging_fbia":"<p>Like this article? Read an unlimited number of articles, plus access to our entire 47-year printed archive, the FP App, and the Digital Magazine when you <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/foreignpolicy.com\/subscribe?utm_source=FBIA%20-%20Launched%2018_09_04&utm_medium=FBIA&utm_campaign=Premium\">subscribe to FP Premium<\/a><\/strong>!<\/p>"},"misc":{"current_magazine_issue":{"isset":true,"link":"https:\/\/web.archive.org\/web\/20190808224206\/https:\/\/foreignpolicy.com\/the-magazine\/"}},"referrers":["google.com"],"user":{"login_url":"https:\/\/web.archive.org\/web\/20190808224206\/https:\/\/fp-reg.onecount.net\/onecount\/login\/loginlogout.cgi","logout_url":"https:\/\/web.archive.org\/web\/20190808224206\/https:\/\/fp-reg.onecount.net\/onecount\/login\/loginlogout.cgi","edit_profile_url":"https:\/\/web.archive.org\/web\/20190808224206\/https:\/\/fp-reg.onecount.net\/onecount\/flexreg\/displayform.php?g=0&form=387","registration_url":"https:\/\/web.archive.org\/web\/20190808224206\/http:\/\/fp-reg.onecount.net\/onecount\/flexreg\/displayform.php?form=137&brand=fp","customer_service_url":"https:\/\/web.archive.org\/web\/20190808224206\/https:\/\/subscribe.foreignpolicy.com\/FRP\/?f=custcare","view_count_limit":null,"paywall_resource_id":null,"registration_product_ids":[34],"subscription_product_ids":[26,235],"premium_product_ids":[145],"newsletter_ids":[177,185,129,161,227,317]},"widgets":[]}; window.lazySizesConfig = window.lazySizesConfig || {}; lazySizesConfig = {"lazyClass":"-lazy","preloadClass":"-preloaded","loadingClass":"-loading","loadedClass":"-loaded"}; </script> <link rel="dns-prefetch" href="//web.archive.org/web/20190808224206/https://s0.wp.com/"/> <link rel="dns-prefetch" href="//web.archive.org/web/20190808224206/https://ajax.googleapis.com/"/> <link rel="dns-prefetch" href="//web.archive.org/web/20190808224206/https://validate.onecount.net/"/> <link rel="dns-prefetch" href="//web.archive.org/web/20190808224206/https://ap.lijit.com/"/> <link rel="dns-prefetch" href="//web.archive.org/web/20190808224206/https://securepubads.g.doubleclick.net/"/> <link rel="dns-prefetch" href="//web.archive.org/web/20190808224206/https://cdn.taboola.com/"/> <link rel="dns-prefetch" href="//web.archive.org/web/20190808224206/https://c.jsrdn.com/"/> <link rel="dns-prefetch" href="//web.archive.org/web/20190808224206/https://s.w.org/"/> <link rel="alternate" type="application/rss+xml" title="Foreign Policy » Why Trump Decided Not to Attack Iran Comments Feed" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20190808224206/https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/06/21/trump-fearing-casualties-aborts-iran-strike-at-last-minute/feed/"/> <script type="text/javascript"> window._wpemojiSettings = {"baseUrl":"https:\/\/web.archive.org\/web\/20190808224206\/https:\/\/s.w.org\/images\/core\/emoji\/12.0.0-1\/72x72\/","ext":".png","svgUrl":"https:\/\/web.archive.org\/web\/20190808224206\/https:\/\/s.w.org\/images\/core\/emoji\/12.0.0-1\/svg\/","svgExt":".svg","source":{"concatemoji":"https:\/\/web.archive.org\/web\/20190808224206\/https:\/\/foreignpolicy.com\/wp-includes\/js\/wp-emoji-release.min.js?ver=5.2.2"}}; !function(a,b,c){function d(a,b){var c=String.fromCharCode;l.clearRect(0,0,k.width,k.height),l.fillText(c.apply(this,a),0,0);var d=k.toDataURL();l.clearRect(0,0,k.width,k.height),l.fillText(c.apply(this,b),0,0);var e=k.toDataURL();return d===e}function e(a){var b;if(!l||!l.fillText)return!1;switch(l.textBaseline="top",l.font="600 32px Arial",a){case"flag":return!(b=d([55356,56826,55356,56819],[55356,56826,8203,55356,56819]))&&(b=d([55356,57332,56128,56423,56128,56418,56128,56421,56128,56430,56128,56423,56128,56447],[55356,57332,8203,56128,56423,8203,56128,56418,8203,56128,56421,8203,56128,56430,8203,56128,56423,8203,56128,56447]),!b);case"emoji":return b=d([55357,56424,55356,57342,8205,55358,56605,8205,55357,56424,55356,57340],[55357,56424,55356,57342,8203,55358,56605,8203,55357,56424,55356,57340]),!b}return!1}function f(a){var c=b.createElement("script");c.src=a,c.defer=c.type="text/javascript",b.getElementsByTagName("head")[0].appendChild(c)}var g,h,i,j,k=b.createElement("canvas"),l=k.getContext&&k.getContext("2d");for(j=Array("flag","emoji"),c.supports={everything:!0,everythingExceptFlag:!0},i=0;i<j.length;i++)c.supports[j[i]]=e(j[i]),c.supports.everything=c.supports.everything&&c.supports[j[i]],"flag"!==j[i]&&(c.supports.everythingExceptFlag=c.supports.everythingExceptFlag&&c.supports[j[i]]);c.supports.everythingExceptFlag=c.supports.everythingExceptFlag&&!c.supports.flag,c.DOMReady=!1,c.readyCallback=function(){c.DOMReady=!0},c.supports.everything||(h=function(){c.readyCallback()},b.addEventListener?(b.addEventListener("DOMContentLoaded",h,!1),a.addEventListener("load",h,!1)):(a.attachEvent("onload",h),b.attachEvent("onreadystatechange",function(){"complete"===b.readyState&&c.readyCallback()})),g=c.source||{},g.concatemoji?f(g.concatemoji):g.wpemoji&&g.twemoji&&(f(g.twemoji),f(g.wpemoji)))}(window,document,window._wpemojiSettings); </script> <style type="text/css"> img.wp-smiley, img.emoji { display: inline !important; border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; height: 1em !important; width: 1em !important; margin: 0 .07em !important; vertical-align: -0.1em !important; background: none !important; padding: 0 !important; } </style> <link rel="stylesheet" id="all-css-0" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20190808224206cs_/https://foreignpolicy.com/_static/??-eJytksFOw0AMRH8I123VUjggPqVydt1kiXe9WjtU+XvSKjdukJtlzbyRR8Z7hVSCTJENgxnGZI6daBhBUteozWg+C+9yKrtF8IKLI2hxLo4+cF58N22c+gJVJYUZjvvDBcmMfcU9AYYdGeM1079BQXPVsvgMbaDGcWvqwBS5bU2tuqw3ZmYq1G/e6k3V/3K/OXkKK3DgRwJFAxJubsCd6giV5juJgNPI+s3NIGuXhIHiNScLINxTmH/F5gmqTH0qhl/slcL4/Nd1fsg/88fh/Ho+vr+d9pcf6NAPGw==" type="text/css" media="all"/> <script type="application/javascript">var googletag=googletag||{};googletag.cmd=googletag.cmd||[];googletag.cmd.push( function(){googletag.pubads().disableInitialLoad()});</script><script type="text/javascript" src="https://web.archive.org/web/20190808224206js_/https://ajax.googleapis.com/ajax/libs/jquery/2.2.4/jquery.min.js"></script> <script type="text/javascript" src="https://web.archive.org/web/20190808224206js_/https://foreignpolicy.com/_static/??-eJytkFEOgjAQRC8kLBBB/TCepZQFStpus7ti4PRC4gVE/yaTvDfJwCtllqJiVNARAwr0xOiGmCXyzi5ZVZQXMCKoAsIWxLJLW54xdsSA0mSJKTjB3DyV8klO8Ku03+DeWKRWkGfkXNTEzniK+Jv/U+1++cK0zauzMAmMGnwto5sP0YySKHaH2MFTa/xf7vVmXcStuF/wCPeybqprVZ6L2/QG00fBiA=="></script> <script type="text/javascript" src="https://web.archive.org/web/20190808224206js_/https://validate.onecount.net/js/all.min.js#d98c7c783d091f556b12685e1604e895b8253f83"></script> <script type="text/javascript" src="//web.archive.org/web/20190808224206js_/https://ap.lijit.com/www/headerauction/headersuite.min.js?configId=1472"></script> <script type="text/javascript" src="//web.archive.org/web/20190808224206js_/https://securepubads.g.doubleclick.net/tag/js/gpt.js?ver=0.5"></script> <script type="text/javascript" src="https://web.archive.org/web/20190808224206js_/https://foreignpolicy.com/wp-content/themes/foreign-policy-2017/static/js/_proxy_access.js?m=1562821409g"></script> <script type="text/javascript" src="//web.archive.org/web/20190808224206js_/https://c.jsrdn.com/s/cs.js?p=22420"></script> <script type="text/javascript"> /* <![CDATA[ */ var FPSharesEndpoint = {"endpoint":"https:\/\/web.archive.org\/web\/20190808224206\/https:\/\/foreignpolicy.com\/_share_count\/"}; var ajaxurl = {"ajaxurl":"https:\/\/web.archive.org\/web\/20190808224206\/https:\/\/foreignpolicy.com\/wp-admin\/admin-ajax.php"}; /* ]]> */ </script> <script type="text/javascript" src="https://web.archive.org/web/20190808224206js_/https://foreignpolicy.com/_static/??-eJyVzFsKgzAQRuENdTom9KIP4lpCmJoJmkj+qaW7ry6hbwcOfPzZKNZiUowtySrgV22ic6GtLhq/5Dv3ZFgwjZzBCLuW+ZgwQgpNcM248L9MaDHpLgQ5iw7mvdhJTevo7g/fe3frhvwDRUU48g=="></script> <link rel="https://api.w.org/" href="https://foreignpolicy.com/wp-json/"/> <link rel="EditURI" type="application/rsd+xml" title="RSD" href="https://foreignpolicy.com/xmlrpc.php?rsd"/> <link rel="wlwmanifest" type="application/wlwmanifest+xml" href="https://foreignpolicy.com/wp-includes/wlwmanifest.xml"/> <meta name="generator" content="WordPress 5.2.2"/> <link rel="canonical" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20190808224206/https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/06/21/trump-fearing-casualties-aborts-iran-strike-at-last-minute/"/> <link rel="shortlink" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20190808224206/http://bit.ly/2IwKQji"/> <link rel="alternate" type="application/json+oembed" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20190808224206/https://foreignpolicy.com/wp-json/oembed/1.0/embed?url=https%3A%2F%2Fforeignpolicy.com%2F2019%2F06%2F21%2Ftrump-fearing-casualties-aborts-iran-strike-at-last-minute%2F"/> <link rel="alternate" type="text/xml+oembed" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20190808224206/https://foreignpolicy.com/wp-json/oembed/1.0/embed?url=https%3A%2F%2Fforeignpolicy.com%2F2019%2F06%2F21%2Ftrump-fearing-casualties-aborts-iran-strike-at-last-minute%2F&format=xml"/> <style type="text/css">img#wpstats{display:none}</style> <script type="text/javascript">var _sf_startpt=(new Date()).getTime()</script> <style> .getty.alignleft { margin-right: 5px; } .getty.alignright { margin-left: 5px; } </style> <link rel="icon" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20190808224206im_/https://foreignpolicy.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/cropped-favicon-512_2017.png?w=32" sizes="32x32"/> <link rel="icon" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20190808224206im_/https://foreignpolicy.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/cropped-favicon-512_2017.png?w=192" sizes="192x192"/> <link rel="apple-touch-icon-precomposed" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20190808224206im_/https://foreignpolicy.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/cropped-favicon-512_2017.png?w=180"/> <meta name="msapplication-TileImage" content="https://foreignpolicy.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/cropped-favicon-512_2017.png?w=270"/>  <style>.async-hide { opacity: 0 !important} </style> <script>(function(a,s,y,n,c,h,i,d,e){s.className+=' '+y;h.start=1*new Date; h.end=i=function(){s.className=s.className.replace(RegExp(' ?'+y),'')}; (a[n]=a[n]||[]).hide=h;setTimeout(function(){i();h.end=null},c);h.timeout=c; })(window,document.documentElement,'async-hide','dataLayer',4000, {'GTM-NVLXP45':true});</script>   <script async src="https://web.archive.org/web/20190808224206js_/https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtag/js?id=UA-6874192-41"></script> <script> window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; // Add additional data for GA / GTM dataLayer.push({ 'author': "Lara Seligman, Robbie Gramer", 'category': "Report", 'datePublished': "2019-06-21", 'region': "", 'tags': "Iran, John Bolton, Middle East, Report, Trump", 'vertical': "Middle East & Africa, News", 'pageType': "Article", 'inMagazine': "", // Values below defined after OC JS runs 'accessId': "", 'accessGroup': "", 'subscriberState': "" }); function gtag(){dataLayer.push(arguments);} gtag('js', new Date()); // GA set config and WP post content group // GA track page group - syntax: gtag('config', 'GA_TRACKING_ID', {'content_group5': '/news/sports'}); if ('undefined' !== typeof realReferer && '' !== document.referrer && realReferer !== document.referrer) { // ONECount tracking override gtag('config', 'UA-6874192-41', { 'optimize_id': 'GTM-NVLXP45', 'custom_map': { 'dimension2': 'LID', 'dimension3': 'RGRP', 'dimension4': 'VID' }, 'page_referrer': realReferer, // track category as content group, may be replaced by dataLayer below 'content_group1': "Report" }); } else { // Standard tracking gtag('config', 'UA-6874192-41', { 'optimize_id': 'GTM-NVLXP45', 'custom_map': { 'dimension2': 'LID', 'dimension3': 'RGRP', 'dimension4': 'VID' }, // track category as content group, may be replaced by dataLayer below 'content_group1': "Report" }); } </script>  <script>(function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start': new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0], j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src= 'https://web.archive.org/web/20190808224206/https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f); })(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-KVBCHJC');</script>  <script type="text/javascript">googletag.pubads().setTargeting("tags",["Iran","John Bolton","Middle East","Report","Trump","Report"]);</script><script type="text/javascript">googletag.pubads().setTargeting("postID","971280");</script><script type="text/javascript">googletag.pubads().setTargeting("author",["Lara Seligman","Robbie Gramer"]);</script> </head> <body class="post-template-default single single-post postid-971280 single-format-standard site-root">  <noscript><iframe src="https://web.archive.org/web/20190808224206if_/https://www.googletagmanager.com/ns.html?id=GTM-KVBCHJC" height="0" width="0" style="display:none;visibility:hidden"></iframe></noscript>  <div id="site-wrapper"> <header class="site-header"> <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20190808224206/https://foreignpolicy.com/" class="logo"> <svg class="site-icon -inline -textonly" width="75" height="47.5" viewbox="0 0 75 47.5"><path fill="#EE3524" d="M39.4,8.7H40V0.5H0v0.8c4.5,0.2,7.4,0.8,7.4,4.9v36c0,4.2-2.9,4.8-7.4,4.9V48h26.2v-0.8c-5.2-0.3-9-0.8-9-4.9 V25.2h8.7c3,0,4.2,2.2,4.9,6.2h0.5V18h-0.5c-0.7,4-1.9,6.2-4.9,6.2h-8.7V1.3h13.3C35.9,1.3,37.7,2.8,39.4,8.7 M52.9,25.2h6.2 c11.1,0,15.9-5.8,15.9-13.1c0-6.4-4.5-11.7-17.3-11.7H40.9l0,41.8c0,4.2-2.9,4.8-7.4,4.9V48h27.3v-0.8c-5.2-0.3-9-0.8-9-4.9V1.5 h3.4c6.1,0,9.5,5.5,9.5,12c0,7.5-3.5,10.8-9.6,10.8h-2.4V25.2z"/></svg>  <span class="hide">Foreign Policy Magazine</span> </a> <div class="header-nav-wrapper"> <nav class="header-nav"> <ul class="header-menu -top"> <li class="header-menu-item"> <a href="/web/20190808224206/https://foreignpolicy.com/channel/news/" class="navlink">News</a> </li> <li class="header-menu-item"> <a href="/web/20190808224206/https://foreignpolicy.com/channel/analysis/" class="navlink">Analysis</a> </li> <li class="header-menu-item"> <a href="/web/20190808224206/https://foreignpolicy.com/firstperson/" class="navlink">Podcasts</a> </li> <li class="header-menu-item"> <a href="/web/20190808224206/https://foreignpolicy.com/the-magazine/" class="navlink">The Magazine</a> </li> <li class="header-menu-item -parent"> <a class="navlink">Channels</a> <ul class="header-menu -top"> <li class="header-menu-item"><a href="/web/20190808224206/https://foreignpolicy.com/channel/economics/" class="navlink">Economics</a></li> <li class="header-menu-item"><a href="/web/20190808224206/https://foreignpolicy.com/channel/security-2/" class="navlink">Security</a></li> <li class="header-menu-item"><a href="/web/20190808224206/https://foreignpolicy.com/category/elephants-in-the-room/" class="navlink">Elephants in the Room</a></li> <li class="header-menu-item"><a href="/web/20190808224206/https://foreignpolicy.com/category/shadow-government/" class="navlink">Shadow Government</a></li> <li class="header-menu-item"><a href="/web/20190808224206/https://foreignpolicy.com/channel/her-power/" class="navlink">Her Power</a></li> </ul> </li> </ul> <span class="close-nav"> <img draggable="false" class="emoji" alt="❌" src="https://web.archive.org/web/20190808224206im_/https://foreignpolicy.com/wp-content/themes/foreign-policy-2017/assets/src/images/icons/close.svg"/>  Close </span> <div class="header-mobile-subnav"> <ul class="manage-account account"> <li class="header-menu-item"><a href="/web/20190808224206/https://foreignpolicy.com/manage" class="navlink navlink-border">Manage Your Account</a></li> </ul> <div class="expando-search"> <div class="icon"> <svg viewbox="0 0 18 18"> <circle class="search-icon" cx="7.5" cy="7.3" r="6.5"/> <line class="search-icon" x1="12.1" y1="11.9" x2="17.5" y2="17.3"/> </svg> </div> <form role="search" method="get" id="searchform-mobile" class="searchform" action="/web/20190808224206/https://foreignpolicy.com/"> <label class="hide" for="searchfield-mobile">Search</label> <input class="search" type="search" name="s" id="searchfield-mobile"/> <input type="submit" value="search-submit" style="display:none"/> </form> </div> <span> <ul class="mobile-subnav-menu"> <li class="header-menu-item"><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20190808224206/http://fpgroup.foreignpolicy.com/" class="navlink">About FP</a></li> <li class="header-menu-item"><a href="/web/20190808224206/https://foreignpolicy.com/staff/" class="navlink">Meet The Staff</a></li> <li class="header-menu-item"><a href="/web/20190808224206/https://foreignpolicy.com/reprint-permissions/" class="navlink">Reprint Permissions</a></li> <li class="header-menu-item"><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20190808224206/http://fpgroup.foreignpolicy.com/" class="navlink">Advertising</a></li> </ul> <ul class="mobile-subnav-menu"> <li class="header-menu-item"><a href="/web/20190808224206/https://foreignpolicy.com/writers-guidelines/" class="navlink">Writers’ Guidelines</a></li> <li class="header-menu-item"><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20190808224206/http://fpgroup.foreignpolicy.com/news" class="navlink">Press Room</a></li> <li class="header-menu-item"><a href="/web/20190808224206/https://foreignpolicy.com/employment-opportunities/" class="navlink">Work At FP</a></li> <li class="header-menu-item"><a href="/web/20190808224206/https://foreignpolicy.com/subscription-services/" class="navlink">Subscription Services</a></li> </ul> </span> <span> <ul class="mobile-subnav-menu"> <li class="header-menu-item"><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20190808224206/https://fpguide.foreignpolicy.com/" class="navlink">FP Guides – Graduate Education</a></li> <li class="header-menu-item"><a href="/web/20190808224206/https://foreignpolicy.com/subscribe-academic/" class="navlink">Academic Program – FP Premium</a></li> <li class="header-menu-item"><a href="/web/20190808224206/https://foreignpolicy.com/magazine/" class="navlink">FP Archive</a></li> <li class="header-menu-item"><a href="/web/20190808224206/https://foreignpolicy.com/buy-back-issues/" class="navlink">Buy Back Issues</a></li> </ul> <ul class="mobile-subnav-menu"> <li class="header-menu-item"><a href="/web/20190808224206/https://foreignpolicy.com/privacy/" class="navlink">Privacy Policy</a></li> <li class="header-menu-item"><a href="/web/20190808224206/https://foreignpolicy.com/contact-us/" class="navlink">Contact Us</a></li> </ul> </span> </div> </nav> </div> <div class="header-subnav-wrapper"> <nav class="header-subnav"> <ul class="header-menu -top"> <li class="header-menu-item"> <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20190808224206/https://fp-reg.onecount.net/onecount/login/loginlogout.php?return=http%3A%2F%2Fforeignpolicy.com%2F" class="navlink -top -user -signin FP-paywall--login">Sign In</a> </li> <li class="header-menu-item"> <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20190808224206/https://foreignpolicy.com/subscribe" class="navlink -top -user -emph"><span class="subscribe--long">Subscribe for $2.25/week</span><span class="subscribe--short">Subscribe</span></a> </li> </ul> <div class="expando-search"> <div class="icon"> <svg viewbox="0 0 18 18"> <circle class="search-icon" cx="7.5" cy="7.3" r="6.5"/> <line class="search-icon" x1="12.1" y1="11.9" x2="17.5" y2="17.3"/> </svg> </div> <form role="search" method="get" id="searchform-desktop" class="searchform" action="/web/20190808224206/https://foreignpolicy.com/"> <label class="hide" for="searchfield-desktop">Search</label> <input class="search" type="search" name="s" id="searchfield-desktop"/> <input type="submit" value="search-submit" style="display:none"/> </form> </div> </nav> </div> <button class="hamburger-button"> <span class="line"></span> <span class="hide">Toggle display of website navigation</span> </button> <div class="header-alt-layout__title"> <p class="header-alt-title"> <span class="department-title"> Report: </span> <span class="header-alt-title__desktop"> Why Trump Decided Not to Attack Iran </span> <span class="header-alt-title__mobile"> Why Trump Decided Not to Attack Iran... </span> </p> <div class="header-social-shares"> <span class="share-title">SHARE:</span> <a data-endpoint="facebook" data-title="Why Trump Decided Not to Attack Iran" data-text="Officials say the president is looking for a peaceful solution to the crisis." data-url="https://web.archive.org/web/20190808224206/https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/06/21/trump-fearing-casualties-aborts-iran-strike-at-last-minute/" onclick="socialshares.share(this);"> <img src="https://web.archive.org/web/20190808224206im_/https://foreignpolicy.com/wp-content/themes/foreign-policy-2017/assets/src/images/icons/facebook_blue.svg" alt="Share on Facebook" class="facebook-button"/> </a> <a data-endpoint="twitter" data-title="Trump's hardline approach to Iran hits up against Trump's push to end costly Middle East conflicts" data-text="Trump's hardline approach to Iran hits up against Trump's push to end costly Middle East conflicts" data-url="https://web.archive.org/web/20190808224206/https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/06/21/trump-fearing-casualties-aborts-iran-strike-at-last-minute/" onclick="socialshares.share(this);"> <img src="https://web.archive.org/web/20190808224206im_/https://foreignpolicy.com/wp-content/themes/foreign-policy-2017/assets/src/images/icons/twitter_blue.svg" alt="Share on Twitter" class="twitter-button"/> </a> <a data-endpoint="linkedin" data-title="Why Trump Decided Not to Attack Iran" data-text="Officials say the president is looking for a peaceful solution to the crisis." data-url="https://web.archive.org/web/20190808224206/https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/06/21/trump-fearing-casualties-aborts-iran-strike-at-last-minute/" onclick="socialshares.share(this);"> <img src="https://web.archive.org/web/20190808224206im_/https://foreignpolicy.com/wp-content/themes/foreign-policy-2017/assets/src/images/icons/linkedin_blue.svg" alt="Share on LinkedIn" class="linkedin-button"/> </a> <a href="#" title="Print" onclick="window.print();"> <img src="https://web.archive.org/web/20190808224206im_/https://foreignpolicy.com/wp-content/themes/foreign-policy-2017/assets/src/images/icons/print_black.svg" alt="Print this page" class="print-button"/> </a> <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20190808224206/mailto:/?subject=Check%20out%20this%20story%20on%20Foreign%20Policy&body=Why Trump Decided Not to Attack Iran%20-%20https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/06/21/trump-fearing-casualties-aborts-iran-strike-at-last-minute/%2F" title="Share via Email"> <img src="https://web.archive.org/web/20190808224206im_/https://foreignpolicy.com/wp-content/themes/foreign-policy-2017/assets/src/images/icons/email_black.svg" alt="Share via Email" class="email-button"/> </a> </div> </div> </header> <script type="text/javascript">googletag.cmd.push( function() { window.FP_gtagBannerSlots = {}; googletag.defineSlot("/7971222/global_superleaderboard_top", [[970, 90], [728, 90], [970, 250]], "div-gpt-ad-1452807828370-0").addService(googletag.pubads());googletag.pubads().disableInitialLoad(); googletag.pubads().enableLazyLoad({ fetchMarginPercent: 0, renderMarginPercent: 0, mobileScaling: 2.0 }); googletag.enableServices(); } ); </script><div class="home-ad-region-1 _970"> <div id="div-gpt-ad-1452807828370-0"> <script type="text/javascript"> googletag.cmd.push( function() { googletag.display( "div-gpt-ad-1452807828370-0" ); } ); </script> </div> </div> <div id="main" data-context="article" class="default default_text_style text_above_photo "> <div class="post-content" data-post-id="971280" data-premium="no" data-premium-trigger="yes" data-whitelist=""> <article class="article" data-post-id="971280" data-post-url="https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/06/21/trump-fearing-casualties-aborts-iran-strike-at-last-minute/" data-lfcollectionmeta="eyJ0eXAiOiJqd3QiLCJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiJ9.eyJ0aXRsZSI6IldoeSBUcnVtcCBEZWNpZGVkIE5vdCB0byBBdHRhY2sgSXJhbiIsInVybCI6Imh0dHBzOlwvXC9mb3JlaWducG9saWN5LmNvbVwvMjAxOVwvMDZcLzIxXC90cnVtcC1mZWFyaW5nLWNhc3VhbHRpZXMtYWJvcnRzLWlyYW4tc3RyaWtlLWF0LWxhc3QtbWludXRlXC8iLCJzdHJlYW1fdHlwZSI6ImxpdmVjb21tZW50cyIsImNoZWNrc3VtIjoiODViZTk1ODI4YWMxNjA0NTdhODMyYTNmNmE4NjdlYTMiLCJhcnRpY2xlSWQiOiJmb3JlaWducG9saWN5X3dwXzk3MTI4MCJ9.Kl67IT67IPTCQrOf5TbbCIQ00UaABBQ-Tmelr7xdLow" data-lfchecksum="85be95828ac160457a832a3f6a867ea3" data-lfarticleid="foreignpolicy_wp_971280"> <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20190808224206/https://foreignpolicy.com/category/report/" class="department-name"> <h3 class="department">Report</h3></a> <span class="hed-heading" href="https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/06/21/trump-fearing-casualties-aborts-iran-strike-at-last-minute/"> <h1 class="hed">Why Trump Decided Not to Attack Iran</h1> </span> <h2 class="dek-heading">Officials say the president is looking for a peaceful solution to the crisis. </h2> <div class="meta-data "> <address class="author-list"> <span class="pre">By</span> <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20190808224206/https://foreignpolicy.com/author/lara-seligman/" rel="author" class="author"> Lara Seligman</a><span class="separator">,</span> <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20190808224206/https://foreignpolicy.com/author/robbie-gramer/" rel="author" class="author"> Robbie Gramer</a></address> <span class="separator">|</span> <time pubdate datetime="2019-06-21" title="June 21st, 2019" class="date-time"> June 21, 2019, 11:58 AM</time> </div> <figure class="figure-image "> <span style="padding-bottom:66.666666666667%; " class="image-attachment -ratioscale horizontal-orientation"> <img data-sizes="(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px" data-srcset="https://web.archive.org/web/20190808224206im_/https://foreignpolicy.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/GettyImages-1151088613.jpg?quality=90 1500w, https://web.archive.org/web/20190808224206im_/https://foreignpolicy.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/GettyImages-1151088613.jpg?resize=150,100&quality=90 150w, https://web.archive.org/web/20190808224206im_/https://foreignpolicy.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/GettyImages-1151088613.jpg?resize=550,366&quality=90 550w, https://web.archive.org/web/20190808224206im_/https://foreignpolicy.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/GettyImages-1151088613.jpg?resize=768,510&quality=90 768w, https://web.archive.org/web/20190808224206im_/https://foreignpolicy.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/GettyImages-1151088613.jpg?resize=400,266&quality=90 400w, https://web.archive.org/web/20190808224206im_/https://foreignpolicy.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/GettyImages-1151088613.jpg?resize=401,267&quality=90 401w, https://web.archive.org/web/20190808224206im_/https://foreignpolicy.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/GettyImages-1151088613.jpg?resize=800,532&quality=90 800w, https://web.archive.org/web/20190808224206im_/https://foreignpolicy.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/GettyImages-1151088613.jpg?resize=275,183&quality=90 275w, https://web.archive.org/web/20190808224206im_/https://foreignpolicy.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/GettyImages-1151088613.jpg?resize=325,216&quality=90 325w, https://web.archive.org/web/20190808224206im_/https://foreignpolicy.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/GettyImages-1151088613.jpg?resize=600,399&quality=90 600w" data-src="https://web.archive.org/web/20190808224206/https://foreignpolicy.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/GettyImages-1151088613.jpg?w=800&h=532&quality=90" sizes="(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px" src="/web/20190808224206im_/https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/06/21/trump-fearing-casualties-aborts-iran-strike-at-last-minute/" alt="U.S. President Donald Trump (from left), Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, and National Security Advisor John Bolton attend a bilateral meeting with Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau at the White House on June 20." style="width:auto;" class="image -fit -lazy"> <noscript> <img src="https://web.archive.org/web/20190808224206im_/https://foreignpolicy.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/GettyImages-1151088613.jpg?w=800&h=532&quality=90" alt="U.S. President Donald Trump (from left), Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, and National Security Advisor John Bolton attend a bilateral meeting with Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau at the White House on June 20." class="image -fit-3-2"> </noscript> </span> <div class="caption"> U.S. President Donald Trump (from left), Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, and National Security Advisor John Bolton attend a bilateral meeting with Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau at the White House on June 20. <span class="attribution">Mandel Ngan/AFP/Getty Images</span> </div> </figure> <div class="post-content-main initial-drop-cap shares-position"> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">The U.S. and Iranian governments moved to de-escalate tensions on Friday after the two nations reached the brink of war, with President Donald Trump confirming that U.S. forces were “<a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20190808224206/https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1142055388965212161?s=20">cocked & loaded</a>” to retaliate against Tehran’s downing of a U.S. military drone. </span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Trump called off the planned attacks on three separate sites in Iran just 10 minutes before go time, after learning that the strikes would kill 150 people, the president said in a tweet Friday morning. </span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">“Not proportionate to shooting down an unmanned drone,” Trump wrote. “I am in no hurry.” </span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">The crisis underscores how Trump’s hard-line approach to Iran is butting up against his goal of extricating the United States from costly conflicts in the Middle East. On the one hand, the Trump administration resurrected America’s confrontation with Iran and raised the specter of war by withdrawing from the 2015 nuclear deal, alienating European allies that support it, and pushing Iran into a corner with crippling sanctions. On the other hand, Trump, a longtime critic of the Iraq War, has vowed to draw down the United States’ costly and decades-long involvement in conflicts in the Middle East.</span></p> <p>Fred Fleitz, a former advisor to John Bolton, Trump’s national security advisor, told <i>Foreign Policy</i> that he believes that by holding off on strikes for now Trump is “creating every opportunity for a peaceful resolution.”</p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">“This is a president who was elected to get us out of war,” Fleitz said. “He doesn’t want war with Iran.” </span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">The internal debate leading up to the aborted strikes reflects a national security team torn in opposite directions, as hard-liners like Bolton reportedly push for action and military advisors urge caution. Trump’s last-minute decision to abort the strikes appears to be a clear defeat for the administration’s hawks, particularly Bolton. </span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">The decision on whether to strike Iran </span><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20190808224206/https://www.cnn.com/2019/06/20/politics/trump-bolton-iran-debate/index.html"><span style="font-weight: 400;">reportedly</span></a><span style="font-weight: 400;"> came down to a debate between Trump and Bolton, with officials such as Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, Vice President Mike Pence, and incoming acting Defense Secretary </span><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20190808224206/https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/06/20/as-iran-tensions-rise-new-acting-pentagon-chief-must-navigate-trump-team/"><span style="font-weight: 400;">Mark Esper</span></a><span style="font-weight: 400;"> playing the role of “swing votes.” </span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">“The president has maximalist objectives, and he’s not prepared to pay a maximum price,” said Suzanne Maloney, an expert on Iran at the Brookings Institution. </span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">She also said the crisis could drag on as the United States keeps its chokehold on the Iranian economy with crippling sanctions. “The Iranians don’t simply want to avoid a military strike. What they want to do is deter the president from imposing economic pressure,” she said. “That’s their end goal, and they haven’t achieved their end goal at the moment.”</span></p> <p>The last-minute stand-down came amid disputed reports of diplomatic outreach between Washington and Tehran to avert war. Iranian officials <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20190808224206/https://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-iran-usa/trump-says-he-aborted-retaliatory-strike-to-spare-iranian-lives-idUSKCN1TL07P" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-iran-usa/trump-says-he-aborted-retaliatory-strike-to-spare-iranian-lives-idUSKCN1TL07P&source=gmail&ust=1561233516633000&usg=AFQjCNEtt5JRb4YDfmKeRe7hsunFN5tEbw">told</a> Reuters that Trump sent a message to Tehran through Oman on Thursday night saying he wanted to begin talks and avoid conflict. But another Iranian government spokesperson denied the report as <span style="font-weight: 400;">“</span>absurd,<span style="font-weight: 400;">”</span> and a senior U.S. administration official <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20190808224206/https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/trump-ordered-attack-on-iran-for-downing-drone-then-called-it-off/2019/06/21/24f4994e-93f3-11e9-aadb-74e6b2b46f6a_story.html?utm_term=.86cbc708df49" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/trump-ordered-attack-on-iran-for-downing-drone-then-called-it-off/2019/06/21/24f4994e-93f3-11e9-aadb-74e6b2b46f6a_story.html?utm_term%3D.86cbc708df49&source=gmail&ust=1561233516634000&usg=AFQjCNGUoldqDMZ0V3UoGePpYqPKdZbLug">told</a> the <i>Washington Post</i> that it was <span style="font-weight: 400;">“</span>a complete lie and propaganda from Iran.<span style="font-weight: 400;">”</span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Pompeo, a staunch Iran hawk, has left open the prospect for talks with Iran in recent weeks, even as he condemned it for allegedly orchestrating a series of attacks on oil tankers near the Strait of Hormuz. “Our policy remains an economic and diplomatic effort to bring Iran back to the negotiating table at the right time, to encourage a comprehensive deal that addresses the broad range of threats,” Pompeo told reporters on June 13 after two oil tankers in the Gulf of Oman were targeted. The Trump administration blamed Iran for the attacks, an assertion backed up by <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20190808224206/https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/06/14/some-us-allies-balk-at-blaming-iran-for-tanker-attack-gulf-oman/">some U.S. allies</a>, while Iran denied any involvement.</span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">In a sign Tehran is also moving to de-escalate, Iranian officials told Reuters that they had </span><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20190808224206/https://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-iran-usa-drone-airplane-idUSKCN1TM1H0"><span style="font-weight: 400;">refrained</span></a><span style="font-weight: 400;"> from shooting down a manned military plane accompanying the RQ-4 Global Hawk downed on Thursday. Downing a manned aircraft—reportedly a P-8 Poseidon maritime patrol aircraft that carries a crew of nine and costs more than $250 million—would have been a dramatic escalation that crossed the red line Trump has set for taking military action against the regime: a dead American. </span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">“With the U.S. drone in the region, there was also an American P-8 plane with 35 people on board,” Amir Ali Hajizadeh, the head of the aerospace division of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, was quoted as saying by Iranian media. (According to the U.S. Navy, the P-8 has a crew of nine; this discrepancy is likely a mistake.) “This plane also entered our airspace, and we could have shot it down, but we did not.”</span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">The very fact that the drone—and potentially the P-8—got close enough to Iranian air defenses to get shot down indicates that U.S. military commanders were preparing for the possibility of an attack, said Robert Pape, a professor at the University of Chicago specializing in international security affairs. </span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">“Updating an attack plan doesn’t mean you are going to attack,” Pape cautioned. “But this is happening in the middle of a crisis where the use of force is [on the table]. This cauldron is brewed for miscalculation.”</span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">It also indicates that the range of Iranian air defenses is greater than the U.S. military anticipated. Commanders in the region may now ask for additional electronic warfare assets to suppress hostile air defenses, said Byron Callan, an analyst with Capital Alpha Partners. </span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">The incident “suggests there will need to be a rethink of operating airborne surveillance systems within range of Iranian air defenses, as well as broader questions about survivability of these sorts of platforms in contested environments,” Callan said.</span></p> <p><span class="image-credit">Update, June 21, 2019: This article was updated to include U.S. and Iranian officials denying reports that Trump sent a message to Iran through Oman. </span></p> <div data-fp-lazy-load-image></div> </div> <section class="bio-no-photo"> <div> <p><strong>Lara Seligman</strong> is a staff writer at <em>Foreign Policy</em>. Twitter: <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20190808224206/http://www.twitter.com/laraseligman" target="_blank">@laraseligman</a></p> </div> <div class="last-author"> <p><strong>Robbie Gramer</strong> is a diplomacy and national security reporter at <em>Foreign Policy</em>. Twitter: <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20190808224206/http://www.twitter.com/RobbieGramer" target="_blank">@RobbieGramer</a></p> </div> </section> <div class="the-comments"> <a href="/web/20190808224206/https://foreignpolicy.com/comments_view/?view_post_comments=https%3A%2F%2Fforeignpolicy.com%2F2019%2F06%2F21%2Ftrump-fearing-casualties-aborts-iran-strike-at-last-minute%2F" style="color:#fff">View<br/>Comments</a> </div> <div class="the-tags"> <span class="title">Tags:</span> <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20190808224206/https://foreignpolicy.com/tag/iran/" class="tag"> Iran</a><span class="separator">,</span><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20190808224206/https://foreignpolicy.com/tag/john-bolton/" class="tag"> John Bolton</a><span class="separator">,</span><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20190808224206/https://foreignpolicy.com/tag/middle-east/" class="tag"> Middle East</a><span class="separator">,</span><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20190808224206/https://foreignpolicy.com/tag/report/" class="tag"> Report</a><span class="separator">,</span><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20190808224206/https://foreignpolicy.com/tag/trump/" class="tag"> Trump</a></div> <div class="taboola"> <div class="taboola--inner border-top"> <p class="taboola--heading">Trending Now <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20190808224206/http://www.taboola.com/" class="taboola--subheading" target="_blank">Sponsored Links by Taboola</a></p> <div id="taboola-below-article-thumbs"></div> <div class="taboola--subheading taboola--subheading__right">By Taboola</div> </div> </div> <div class="taboola taboola__fp"> <div class="taboola--inner"> <p class="taboola--heading heading__red">More from Foreign Policy</p> <div id="taboola-below-article-thumbs_fp"></div> <div class="taboola--subheading taboola--subheading__right">By Taboola</div> </div> </div> <div class="fp-related-wrapper related-articles--no-video"> <div class="related-articles"> <p class="heading-container"><span class="heading">Read More</span></p> <div class="blog-list-layout" data-post-id="971136"> <div class="excerpt-content--list --first-post content-block" data-post-id="971136"> <figure class="figure-image -nocaption"> <a style="padding-bottom:66.666666666667%; " href="https://web.archive.org/web/20190808224206/https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/06/20/did-iran-just-invite-a-us-attack-drone-trump/" class="image-attachment -ratioscale horizontal-orientation"> <img data-sizes="(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px" data-srcset="https://web.archive.org/web/20190808224206im_/https://foreignpolicy.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/120611-O-ZZ999-101.jpg?quality=80 1500w, https://web.archive.org/web/20190808224206im_/https://foreignpolicy.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/120611-O-ZZ999-101.jpg?resize=150,100&quality=80 150w, https://web.archive.org/web/20190808224206im_/https://foreignpolicy.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/120611-O-ZZ999-101.jpg?resize=550,367&quality=80 550w, https://web.archive.org/web/20190808224206im_/https://foreignpolicy.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/120611-O-ZZ999-101.jpg?resize=768,512&quality=80 768w, https://web.archive.org/web/20190808224206im_/https://foreignpolicy.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/120611-O-ZZ999-101.jpg?resize=400,267&quality=80 400w, https://web.archive.org/web/20190808224206im_/https://foreignpolicy.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/120611-O-ZZ999-101.jpg?resize=401,267&quality=80 401w, https://web.archive.org/web/20190808224206im_/https://foreignpolicy.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/120611-O-ZZ999-101.jpg?resize=800,533&quality=80 800w, https://web.archive.org/web/20190808224206im_/https://foreignpolicy.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/120611-O-ZZ999-101.jpg?resize=275,183&quality=80 275w, https://web.archive.org/web/20190808224206im_/https://foreignpolicy.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/120611-O-ZZ999-101.jpg?resize=325,217&quality=80 325w, https://web.archive.org/web/20190808224206im_/https://foreignpolicy.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/120611-O-ZZ999-101.jpg?resize=600,400&quality=80 600w" data-src="https://web.archive.org/web/20190808224206/https://foreignpolicy.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/120611-O-ZZ999-101.jpg?w=800&h=533&quality=80" sizes="(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px" src="/web/20190808224206im_/https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/06/21/trump-fearing-casualties-aborts-iran-strike-at-last-minute/" alt="A U.S. Navy RQ-4 Global Hawk drone, an example of which is seen here on June 11, 2012, was shot down by Iranian IRGC surface-to-air missiles near the Strait of Hormuz." style="width:auto;" class="image -fit -lazy"> <noscript> <img src="https://web.archive.org/web/20190808224206im_/https://foreignpolicy.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/120611-O-ZZ999-101.jpg?w=800&h=533&quality=80" alt="A U.S. Navy RQ-4 Global Hawk drone, an example of which is seen here on June 11, 2012, was shot down by Iranian IRGC surface-to-air missiles near the Strait of Hormuz." class="image -fit-3-2"> </noscript> </a> </figure> <div class="list-text"> <a class="hed-heading -excerpt" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20190808224206/https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/06/20/did-iran-just-invite-a-us-attack-drone-trump/"> <h3 class="hed">Did Iran Just Invite a U.S. Attack?</h3> </a> <div class="dek-heading -excerpt"> <p class="dek">“This country will not stand for it,” Trump says after drone shootdown.</p> </div> <div class="meta-data -excerpt"> <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20190808224206/https://foreignpolicy.com/category/report/" class="department-name -excerpt"> Report </a> <span class="separator">|</span> <address class="author-list -excerpt"> <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20190808224206/https://foreignpolicy.com/author/keith-johnson/" rel="author" class="author"> Keith Johnson</a></address> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div class="blog-list-layout" data-post-id="971177"> <div class="excerpt-content--list content-block" data-post-id="971177"> <figure class="figure-image -nocaption"> <a style="padding-bottom:66.666666666667%; " href="https://web.archive.org/web/20190808224206/https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/06/20/trump-is-playing-irans-game-of-drones/" class="image-attachment -ratioscale horizontal-orientation"> <img data-sizes="(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px" data-srcset="https://web.archive.org/web/20190808224206im_/https://foreignpolicy.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/gettyimages-1142530277-iran.jpg?quality=80 1500w, https://web.archive.org/web/20190808224206im_/https://foreignpolicy.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/gettyimages-1142530277-iran.jpg?resize=150,100&quality=80 150w, https://web.archive.org/web/20190808224206im_/https://foreignpolicy.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/gettyimages-1142530277-iran.jpg?resize=550,367&quality=80 550w, https://web.archive.org/web/20190808224206im_/https://foreignpolicy.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/gettyimages-1142530277-iran.jpg?resize=768,512&quality=80 768w, https://web.archive.org/web/20190808224206im_/https://foreignpolicy.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/gettyimages-1142530277-iran.jpg?resize=400,267&quality=80 400w, https://web.archive.org/web/20190808224206im_/https://foreignpolicy.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/gettyimages-1142530277-iran.jpg?resize=401,267&quality=80 401w, https://web.archive.org/web/20190808224206im_/https://foreignpolicy.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/gettyimages-1142530277-iran.jpg?resize=800,533&quality=80 800w, https://web.archive.org/web/20190808224206im_/https://foreignpolicy.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/gettyimages-1142530277-iran.jpg?resize=275,183&quality=80 275w, https://web.archive.org/web/20190808224206im_/https://foreignpolicy.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/gettyimages-1142530277-iran.jpg?resize=325,217&quality=80 325w, https://web.archive.org/web/20190808224206im_/https://foreignpolicy.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/gettyimages-1142530277-iran.jpg?resize=600,400&quality=80 600w" data-src="https://web.archive.org/web/20190808224206/https://foreignpolicy.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/gettyimages-1142530277-iran.jpg?w=800&h=533&quality=80" sizes="(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px" src="/web/20190808224206im_/https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/06/21/trump-fearing-casualties-aborts-iran-strike-at-last-minute/" alt="Iranian demonstrators carry a portrait of Iranian Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and an effigy of U.S. President Donald Trump at a rally in Tehran on May 10." style="width:auto;" class="image -fit -lazy"> <noscript> <img src="https://web.archive.org/web/20190808224206im_/https://foreignpolicy.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/gettyimages-1142530277-iran.jpg?w=800&h=533&quality=80" alt="Iranian demonstrators carry a portrait of Iranian Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and an effigy of U.S. President Donald Trump at a rally in Tehran on May 10." class="image -fit-3-2"> </noscript> </a> </figure> <div class="list-text"> <a class="hed-heading -excerpt" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20190808224206/https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/06/20/trump-is-playing-irans-game-of-drones/"> <h3 class="hed">Trump Is Playing Iran’s Game of Drones</h3> </a> <div class="dek-heading -excerpt"> <p class="dek">Contrary to popular belief, drones aren’t further destabilizing global conflicts—they’re creating a way for leaders to de-escalate crises.</p> </div> <div class="meta-data -excerpt"> <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20190808224206/https://foreignpolicy.com/category/argument/" class="department-name -excerpt"> Argument </a> <span class="separator">|</span> <address class="author-list -excerpt"> <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20190808224206/https://foreignpolicy.com/author/erik-lin-greenberg/" rel="author" class="author"> Erik Lin-Greenberg</a></address> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div class="blog-list-layout" data-post-id="969417"> <div class="excerpt-content--list content-block" data-post-id="969417"> <figure class="figure-image -nocaption"> <a style="padding-bottom:66.666666666667%; " href="https://web.archive.org/web/20190808224206/https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/05/31/iran-might-not-be-able-to-wait-trump-out/" class="image-attachment -ratioscale horizontal-orientation"> <img data-sizes="(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px" data-srcset="https://web.archive.org/web/20190808224206im_/https://foreignpolicy.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/gettyimagestrumpiran-1147146586.jpg?quality=80 1500w, https://web.archive.org/web/20190808224206im_/https://foreignpolicy.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/gettyimagestrumpiran-1147146586.jpg?resize=150,100&quality=80 150w, https://web.archive.org/web/20190808224206im_/https://foreignpolicy.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/gettyimagestrumpiran-1147146586.jpg?resize=550,367&quality=80 550w, https://web.archive.org/web/20190808224206im_/https://foreignpolicy.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/gettyimagestrumpiran-1147146586.jpg?resize=768,512&quality=80 768w, https://web.archive.org/web/20190808224206im_/https://foreignpolicy.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/gettyimagestrumpiran-1147146586.jpg?resize=400,267&quality=80 400w, https://web.archive.org/web/20190808224206im_/https://foreignpolicy.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/gettyimagestrumpiran-1147146586.jpg?resize=401,267&quality=80 401w, https://web.archive.org/web/20190808224206im_/https://foreignpolicy.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/gettyimagestrumpiran-1147146586.jpg?resize=800,533&quality=80 800w, https://web.archive.org/web/20190808224206im_/https://foreignpolicy.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/gettyimagestrumpiran-1147146586.jpg?resize=275,183&quality=80 275w, https://web.archive.org/web/20190808224206im_/https://foreignpolicy.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/gettyimagestrumpiran-1147146586.jpg?resize=325,217&quality=80 325w, https://web.archive.org/web/20190808224206im_/https://foreignpolicy.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/gettyimagestrumpiran-1147146586.jpg?resize=600,400&quality=80 600w" data-src="https://web.archive.org/web/20190808224206/https://foreignpolicy.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/gettyimagestrumpiran-1147146586.jpg?w=800&h=533&quality=80" sizes="(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px" src="/web/20190808224206im_/https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/06/21/trump-fearing-casualties-aborts-iran-strike-at-last-minute/" alt="Iranians burn an effigy of U.S. President Donald Trump during a parade on May 31 in Tehran." style="width:auto;" class="image -fit -lazy"> <noscript> <img src="https://web.archive.org/web/20190808224206im_/https://foreignpolicy.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/gettyimagestrumpiran-1147146586.jpg?w=800&h=533&quality=80" alt="Iranians burn an effigy of U.S. President Donald Trump during a parade on May 31 in Tehran." class="image -fit-3-2"> </noscript> </a> </figure> <div class="list-text"> <a class="hed-heading -excerpt" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20190808224206/https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/05/31/iran-might-not-be-able-to-wait-trump-out/"> <h3 class="hed">Iran Might Not Be Able to Wait Trump Out</h3> </a> <div class="dek-heading -excerpt"> <p class="dek">New negotiations could be Tehran’s only option.</p> </div> <div class="meta-data -excerpt"> <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20190808224206/https://foreignpolicy.com/channel/elephants-in-the-room/" class="department-name -excerpt"> Elephants in the Room </a> <span class="separator">|</span> <address class="author-list -excerpt"> <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20190808224206/https://foreignpolicy.com/author/john-hannah/" rel="author" class="author"> John Hannah</a></address> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </article> <div class="sidebar"> <div> <script type="text/javascript">googletag.cmd.push( function() { window.FP_gtagBannerSlots = {}; googletag.defineSlot("/7971222/default_fp2_bigbox_ATF", [[300, 250],[300, 600],[300, 1050]], "div-gpt-ad-1385102181603-0").addService(googletag.pubads());googletag.defineSlot("/7971222/default_fp2_bigbox_CENTER", [[300, 250],[300, 600]], "div-gpt-ad-1390433129530-0").addService(googletag.pubads());googletag.defineSlot("/7971222/default_fp2_bigbox_BTF", [[300, 250],[300, 600]], "div-gpt-ad-1385071228815-0").addService(googletag.pubads());googletag.pubads().disableInitialLoad(); googletag.pubads().enableLazyLoad({ fetchMarginPercent: 0, renderMarginPercent: 0, mobileScaling: 2.0 }); googletag.enableServices(); } ); </script><div class="channel-sidebar-big-box-ad _300"> <div id="div-gpt-ad-1385102181603-0"> <script type="text/javascript"> googletag.cmd.push( function() { googletag.display( "div-gpt-ad-1385102181603-0" ); } ); </script> </div> </div> <div class="sidebar-list"> <h2 class="title">Latest</h2> <div class="excerpt-content"> <a class="hed-heading -excerpt" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20190808224206/https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/08/08/modi-makes-his-case-on-kashmir/"> <h3 class="hed">Modi Makes His Case on Kashmir</h3> </a> <div class="meta-data -ago"> <time pubdate datetime="2019-08-08" title="August 8th, 2019" class="date-time"> August 8, 2019, 4:39 PM</time> </div> </div> <div class="excerpt-content"> <a class="hed-heading -excerpt" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20190808224206/https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/08/08/brazilian-organized-crime-is-all-grown-up/"> <h3 class="hed">Brazilian Organized Crime Is All Grown Up</h3> </a> <div class="meta-data -ago"> <time pubdate datetime="2019-08-08" title="August 8th, 2019" class="date-time"> August 8, 2019, 3:55 PM</time> </div> </div> <div class="excerpt-content"> <a class="hed-heading -excerpt" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20190808224206/https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/08/08/976045-china-dagong-credit-creditratings-democracy/"> <h3 class="hed">In China’s Credit Ratings, Democracies Pay a Price</h3> </a> <div class="meta-data -ago"> <time pubdate datetime="2019-08-08" title="August 8th, 2019" class="date-time"> August 8, 2019, 1:50 PM</time> </div> </div> <div class="excerpt-content"> <a class="hed-heading -excerpt" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20190808224206/https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/08/08/how-the-cia-aims-to-keep-a-footprint-in-afghanistan-taliban-talks/"> <h3 class="hed">How the CIA Aims to Keep a Footprint in Afghanistan</h3> </a> <div class="meta-data -ago"> <time pubdate datetime="2019-08-08" title="August 8th, 2019" class="date-time"> August 8, 2019, 1:11 PM</time> </div> </div> <div class="excerpt-content"> <a class="hed-heading -excerpt" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20190808224206/https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/08/08/kashmir-is-a-dress-rehearsal-for-hindu-nationalist-fantasies/"> <h3 class="hed">Kashmir Is a Dress Rehearsal for Hindu Nationalist Fantasies</h3> </a> <div class="meta-data -ago"> <time pubdate datetime="2019-08-08" title="August 8th, 2019" class="date-time"> August 8, 2019, 12:17 PM</time> </div> </div> </div> <div class="sidebar-list-more"> <a href="/web/20190808224206/https://foreignpolicy.com/category/latest/">See All Stories</a> </div> </div> <div class="fp-trending-wrapper trending-articles--no-video"> <div class="trending-articles"> <p><span class="heading">Trending</span></p> <ol> <li class="fp-trending-content"> <div class="fp-trending-count">1</div> <div class="title"> <a href="/web/20190808224206/https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/08/08/how-the-cia-aims-to-keep-a-footprint-in-afghanistan-taliban-talks/">How the CIA Aims to Keep a Footprint in Afghanistan</a> </div> </li> <li class="fp-trending-content"> <div class="fp-trending-count">2</div> <div class="title"> <a href="/web/20190808224206/https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/08/08/modi-makes-his-case-on-kashmir/">Modi Makes His Case on Kashmir</a> </div> </li> <li class="fp-trending-content"> <div class="fp-trending-count">3</div> <div class="title"> <a href="/web/20190808224206/https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/08/08/kashmir-is-a-dress-rehearsal-for-hindu-nationalist-fantasies/">Kashmir Is a Dress Rehearsal for Hindu Nationalist Fantasies</a> </div> </li> <li class="fp-trending-content"> <div class="fp-trending-count">4</div> <div class="title"> <a href="/web/20190808224206/https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/08/07/did-mohammed-bin-salman-just-give-jihadis-the-worlds-greatest-terrorist-recruiting-tool-usa-troops-saudi-arabia-osama-bin-laden/">Did Mohammed bin Salman Just Give Jihadis the World’s Greatest Terrorist Recruiting Tool?</a> </div> </li> <li class="fp-trending-content"> <div class="fp-trending-count">5</div> <div class="title"> <a href="/web/20190808224206/https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/08/06/japan-started-a-war-it-wasnt-ready-to-fight/">Japan Started a War It Wasn't Ready to Fight</a> </div> </li> </ol> </div> </div> <div class="ad-container _300"> <div id="div-gpt-ad-1390433129530-0"> <script type="text/javascript"> googletag.cmd.push( function() { googletag.display( "div-gpt-ad-1390433129530-0" ); } ); </script> </div> </div> <div class="sidebar-list"> <h2 class="title">Voices</h2> <div class="excerpt-content"> <a class="hed-heading -excerpt" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20190808224206/https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/08/05/who-will-invade-brazil-to-save-the-amazon/"> <h3 class="hed">Who Will Save the Amazon (and How)?</h3> </a> <div class="meta-data -excerpt"> <address class="author-list -excerpt"> <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20190808224206/https://foreignpolicy.com/author/stephen-m-walt/" rel="author" class="author"> Stephen M. Walt</a> </address> </div> </div> <div class="excerpt-content"> <a class="hed-heading -excerpt" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20190808224206/https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/08/01/iran-owns-the-persian-gulf-now/"> <h3 class="hed">Iran Owns the Persian Gulf Now</h3> </a> <div class="meta-data -excerpt"> <address class="author-list -excerpt"> <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20190808224206/https://foreignpolicy.com/author/steven-a-cook/" rel="author" class="author"> Steven A. Cook</a> </address> </div> </div> <div class="excerpt-content last"> <a class="hed-heading -excerpt" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20190808224206/https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/07/29/yesterdays-cold-war-shows-how-to-beat-china-today/"> <h3 class="hed">Yesterday’s Cold War Shows How to Beat China Today</h3> </a> <div class="meta-data -excerpt"> <address class="author-list -excerpt"> <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20190808224206/https://foreignpolicy.com/author/stephen-m-walt/" rel="author" class="author"> Stephen M. Walt</a> </address> </div> </div> </div> <div class="channel-sidebar-big-box-ad _300"> <div id="div-gpt-ad-1385071228815-0"> <script type="text/javascript"> googletag.cmd.push( function() { googletag.display( "div-gpt-ad-1385071228815-0" ); } ); </script> </div> </div></div> </div> </div> <div class="sticky_content"></div> <footer class="site-footer-wrapper"> <div class="site-footer"> <div class="logo"> <a style="padding-bottom:42%; " href="https://web.archive.org/web/20190808224206/https://foreignpolicy.com/" class="image-attachment -ratioscale"> <img data-srcset="" data-src="https://web.archive.org/web/20190808224206/https://foreignpolicy.com/wp-content/themes/foreign-policy-2017/assets/src/images/logos/FP.svg" alt="Foreign Policy Magazine" class="image -fit -lazy"> <noscript> <img src="https://web.archive.org/web/20190808224206im_/https://foreignpolicy.com/wp-content/themes/foreign-policy-2017/assets/src/images/logos/FP.svg" alt="Foreign Policy Magazine" class="image -fit"> </noscript> </a> </div> <nav class="nav"> <ul id="menu-footer-column-1" class="footer-menu"><li id="menu-item-660877" class="menu-item menu-item-type-custom menu-item-object-custom menu-item-660877 footer-menu-item"><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20190808224206/http://fpgroup.foreignpolicy.com/" class="navlink">About FP</a></li> <li id="menu-item-783354" class="menu-item menu-item-type-post_type menu-item-object-page menu-item-783354 footer-menu-item"><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20190808224206/https://foreignpolicy.com/staff/" class="navlink">Meet the Staff</a></li> <li id="menu-item-660950" class="menu-item menu-item-type-post_type menu-item-object-page menu-item-660950 footer-menu-item"><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20190808224206/https://foreignpolicy.com/reprint-permissions/" class="navlink">Reprint Permissions</a></li> <li id="menu-item-660880" class="menu-item menu-item-type-custom menu-item-object-custom menu-item-660880 footer-menu-item"><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20190808224206/http://fpgroup.foreignpolicy.com/" class="navlink">Advertise/Events</a></li> </ul><ul id="menu-footer-column-2" class="footer-menu"><li id="menu-item-939400" class="menu-item menu-item-type-custom menu-item-object-custom menu-item-939400 footer-menu-item"><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20190808224206/https://foreignpolicy.submittable.com/submit" class="navlink">Writer’s Guidelines</a></li> <li id="menu-item-660882" class="menu-item menu-item-type-custom menu-item-object-custom menu-item-660882 footer-menu-item"><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20190808224206/http://fpgroup.foreignpolicy.com/news" class="navlink">Press Room</a></li> <li id="menu-item-927639" class="menu-item menu-item-type-custom menu-item-object-custom menu-item-927639 footer-menu-item"><a href="/web/20190808224206/https://foreignpolicy.com/employment-opportunities/" class="navlink">Work At FP</a></li> <li id="menu-item-660957" class="menu-item menu-item-type-post_type menu-item-object-page menu-item-660957 footer-menu-item"><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20190808224206/https://foreignpolicy.com/subscription-services/" class="navlink">Subscription Services</a></li> </ul><ul id="menu-footer-column-3" class="footer-menu"><li id="menu-item-927960" class="menu-item menu-item-type-custom menu-item-object-custom menu-item-927960 footer-menu-item"><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20190808224206/https://fpguide.foreignpolicy.com/" class="navlink">FP Guides – Graduate Education</a></li> <li id="menu-item-927640" class="menu-item menu-item-type-custom menu-item-object-custom menu-item-927640 footer-menu-item"><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20190808224206/https://foreignpolicy.com/subscribe-academic/" class="navlink">Academic Program – FP Premium</a></li> <li id="menu-item-660886" class="menu-item menu-item-type-custom menu-item-object-custom menu-item-660886 footer-menu-item"><a href="/web/20190808224206/https://foreignpolicy.com/magazine" class="navlink">FP Archive</a></li> <li id="menu-item-660961" class="menu-item menu-item-type-post_type menu-item-object-page menu-item-660961 footer-menu-item"><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20190808224206/https://foreignpolicy.com/buy-back-issues/" class="navlink">Buy Back Issues</a></li> </ul><ul id="menu-footer-column-4" class="footer-menu"><li id="menu-item-927961" class="menu-item menu-item-type-post_type menu-item-object-page menu-item-927961 footer-menu-item"><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20190808224206/https://foreignpolicy.com/privacy/" class="navlink">Privacy Policy</a></li> <li id="menu-item-660967" class="menu-item menu-item-type-post_type menu-item-object-page menu-item-660967 footer-menu-item"><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20190808224206/https://foreignpolicy.com/contact-us/" class="navlink">Contact Us</a></li> </ul> <span class="powered-by-wpcom--parent"> <div>Powered by <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20190808224206/https://wpvip.com/?utm_source=vip_powered_wpcom&utm_medium=web&utm_campaign=VIP%20Footer%20Credit&utm_term=foreignpolicy.com" rel="generator nofollow" class="powered-by-wpcom">WordPress.com VIP</a></div> <div>© 2019, The Slate Group</div> </span> </nav> </div> </footer> </div> <div data-campaign="HSBC ROS nd Econ" data-stay-closed="false" data-mobile-ad="div-gpt-ad-1453402331387-0" data-refresh="30000" data-closeable="false" class="FP-mobile-ad FP-mobile-ad_fixedbottom"></div> <script id="template-mobile-regwall" type="text/template"> <div id="paywall_bg" class="mobile-regwall"> <div id="paywallWrapper"> <h1 class="medium_header" style="color: #fff;"> Please Log In / Register </h1> <h2>Returning Users</h2> <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20190808224206/https://fp-reg.onecount.net/onecount/login/loginlogout.cgi" class="overlay-button-large m-regwall-link FP-paywall--login" data-gael="MobiRegwallLogin">Log in</a> <h2>Want Unlimited Access?</h2> <a href="javascript:void(0);" class="overlay-button-large m-regwall_sublink" data-gael="MobiRegwallSub">Subscribe — 20% Off</a> <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20190808224206/https://foreignpolicy.com/" class="paywall_close_btn" data-gael="MobiRegwallClose"> <img src="https://web.archive.org/web/20190808224206/https://foreignpolicy.com/wp-content/themes/foreign-policy-2017/static/images/articlecounter-close.png" class="paywall_close simplemodal-close" alt="[X]"> </a> </div> </div> </script> <script id="template-ip-access" type="text/template"> <div class="overlay-container-dark overlay-the-week"> <button class="overlay-close"> Close this window <span></span> </button> <div class="overlay-content"> <h1 class="overlay-title">Welcome to <cite>ForeignPolicy.com</cite></h1> <div class="overlay-body"> <p> Your FP All Access subscription is provided by US Department of State, Bunche Library. </p> <p> Click <a class="overlay-close-link" href="javascript:void(0);">here</a> to access <cite>ForeignPolicy.com</cite>. </p> </div> </div> </div> </script> <script id="template-paywall-a" type="text/template"> <div id="paywall_bg" class="updated_paywall"> <div id="paywallWrapper"> <div id="paywall_header"> <h1> How does this story end? </h1> </div> <div class="paywall_text"> <p>Get access to all of Foreign Policy's content, subscriber-only newsletters, and the digital version of FP's award-winning magazine with our Basic subscription.</p> <div class="sub_btn_wrapper"> <a href="javascript:void(0);" data-action="Sub" class="sub_btn paywall_button"> Keep reading for $2.25/week </a> </div> <p class="learn-more">Learn More</p> <div class="learn-more-content"> <p><strong>INCLUDED:</strong></p> <ul> <li>Unlimited access to articles</li> <li>Five FP email newsletters</li> <li>Digital access to FP's print edition</li> </ul> <p class="close-learn-more"><img draggable="false" class="emoji" alt="❌" src="https://web.archive.org/web/20190808224206/https://foreignpolicy.com/wp-content/themes/foreign-policy-2017/assets/src/images/icons/close-white.svg">  Close</p> </div> <p class="paywall_footer_cta"> <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20190808224206/https://fp-reg.onecount.net/onecount/login/loginlogout.php" data-action="Log" class="already_sub_link FP-paywall--login"> Already a subscriber? <strong>Sign in to keep reading</strong>. </a> </p> </div> <a href="javascript:void(0);" data-action="Close" class="paywall_close_btn"> <img src="https://web.archive.org/web/20190808224206/https://foreignpolicy.com/wp-content/themes/foreign-policy-2017/assets/src/images/icons/close-white.svg" class="paywall_close simplemodal-close" alt="[X]"> </a> </div> </div> </script> <script id="template-paywall-b" type="text/template"> <div id="paywall_bg" class="updated_paywall"> <div id="paywallWrapper"> <div id="paywall_header"> <h1> How does this story end? </h1> </div> <div class="paywall_text"> <p>Get access to all of Foreign Policy's content, subscriber-only newsletters, and the digital version of FP's award-winning magazine with our Basic subscription.</p> <div class="sub_btn_wrapper"> <a href="javascript:void(0);" data-action="Sub" class="sub_btn paywall_button"> Keep reading for $2.25/week </a> </div> <p class="learn-more">Learn More</p> <div class="learn-more-content"> <p><strong>INCLUDED:</strong></p> <ul> <li>Unlimited access to articles</li> <li>Five FP email newsletters</li> <li>Digital access to FP's print edition</li> </ul> <p class="close-learn-more"><img draggable="false" class="emoji" alt="❌" src="https://web.archive.org/web/20190808224206/https://foreignpolicy.com/wp-content/themes/foreign-policy-2017/assets/src/images/icons/close-white.svg">  Close</p> </div> <p class="paywall_footer_cta"> <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20190808224206/https://fp-reg.onecount.net/onecount/login/loginlogout.php" data-action="Log" class="already_sub_link FP-paywall--login"> Already a subscriber? <strong>Sign in to keep reading</strong>. </a> </p> </div> <a href="javascript:void(0);" data-action="Close" class="paywall_close_btn"> <img src="https://web.archive.org/web/20190808224206/https://foreignpolicy.com/wp-content/themes/foreign-policy-2017/assets/src/images/icons/close-white.svg" class="paywall_close simplemodal-close" alt="[X]"> </a> </div> </div> </script> <div class="overlay-container-dark login-modal-container"> <div class="login-modal"> <span class="close-button"></span> <div class="sign-in"> <h3>Welcome back</h3> <p>Sign in to your <span class="fp-red">Foreign Policy</span> account</p> <form action="https://web.archive.org/web/20190808224206/https://fp-reg.onecount.net/onecount/login/loginlogout.php" method="POST" name="loginform"> <label for="loginlogout_username">Email Address</label> <input type="text" name="loginlogout_username" id="loginlogout_username" placeholder="Enter your Email Address"/> <a class="show-sign-in--step-2 modal-button">Next</a> <div class="sign-in--step-2"> <label for="loginlogout_passwd">Password</label> <input type="password" name="loginlogout_passwd" id="loginlogout_passwd" placeholder="Enter your Password"/> <a href="//web.archive.org/web/20190808224206/https://fp-reg.onecount.net/onecount/login/forgotpassword.php?return=https%3A%2F%2Fforeignpolicy.com%2F&brand=fp" class="small-link" target="_blank">Forgot Password?</a> <input type="submit" class="button" value="Sign In" name="loginlogoutSubmit_login"/> </div> </form> </div> <div class="create-account"> <div class="create-account--step-1"> <h4>Need an account?</h4> <p>Sign up for free access to 1 article per month and weekly email updates from expert policy analysts</p> <a class="show-create-account--step-2 modal-button">Sign Up</a> </div> <div class="create-account--step-2"> <p class="sign-in--option">Already have an account? <a class="show-sign-in--step-2">Log in</a></p> <h3>Sign Up</h3> <p>Create a <span class="fp-red">Foreign Policy</span> account to access 1 article per month and free newsletters developed by policy experts</p> <div class="loading-placeholder"> <p>Loading</p> </div> <div id="oc-create-account-form"></div> </div> </div> <div class="callouts"> <p>Want unlimited access? <a href="/web/20190808224206/https://foreignpolicy.com/subscribe">Subscribe today</a>.</p> </div> <div class="back"> <span class="show-sign-in--step-1">Go Back</span> </div> </div> </div> <div class="js-takeover default" id="premium-only-takeover" style="display:none"> <div class="js-takeover-content premium-only-takeover" id="premium-only-takeover--default"> <div class="oc-premium-subscription-takeover"> <div class="oc-premium-subscription-text"> <div class="oc-premium-subscription-text--inner"> <p class="close-back"><a href="/web/20190808224206/https://foreignpolicy.com/">◀ Go Back</a></p> <p class="premium-subhead">Premium Content</p> <h2>Why Trump Decided Not to Attack Iran</h2> <p>This page is only accessible by Foreign Policy Premium subscribers.</p> <p>FP Premium subscribers get insider access to in-depth research reports on complex topics with far-reaching geopolitical implications, as well as exclusive conference calls with FP’s editors and reporters, Foreign Policy’s award-winning print magazine, and advanced access to live events.</p> </div> <div class="oc-premium-subscription-text--form"> <div class="login-options"> <h3>Sign in or Subscribe to Continue</h3> <h4>Sign in to your Foreign Policy account</h4> <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20190808224206/https://fp-reg.onecount.net/onecount/login/loginlogout.cgi" class="FP-paywall--login FP-paywall--login--login button button--grey">Sign In</a> <h4 class="border-top">Not an FP Premium subscriber?</h4> <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20190808224206/https://fp-reg.onecount.net/onecount/flexreg/displayform.php?g=0&form=597&signup=1" class="button button--grey">Subscribe Now</a> </div> <div class="subscription-options" style="display:none"> <div class="basic-options" style="display:none"> <h3>Upgrade to FP Premium to Continue</h3> <p>Thank you for being an FP Basic subscriber. To get access to this special FP Premium benefit, upgrade your subscription by clicking the button below.</p> <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20190808224206/https://fp-reg.onecount.net/onecount/flexreg/displayform.php?g=0&form=597&upgrade=premium" class="button">Upgrade Now</a> </div> <div class="registered-options" style="display:none"> <h3>Subscribe to Continue Reading</h3> <p>Thank you for being an FP reader. To get access to this special FP Premium benefit, subscribe by clicking the button below.</p> <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20190808224206/https://fp-reg.onecount.net/onecount/flexreg/displayform.php?g=0&form=597" class="button">Subscribe Now</a> </div> </div> </div> </div> <a href="javascript:void(0);" data-action="Close" class="paywall_close_btn" style="display:none;" "> <img src="https://web.archive.org/web/20190808224206im_/https://foreignpolicy.com/wp-content/themes/foreign-policy-2017/assets/src/images/icons/close-black.svg" class="paywall_close simplemodal-close" alt="[X]"> </a> </div> </div> </div> <div class="js-takeover default" id="premium-only-takeover--webinars" style="display:none"> <div class="js-takeover-content premium-only-takeover"> <div class="oc-premium-subscription-takeover"> <div class="oc-premium-subscription-text"> <div class="oc-premium-subscription-text--inner"> <p class="premium-subhead">Premium Content</p> <h2>Subscribe Now</h2> <p>This page is only accessible by Foreign Policy Premium subscribers.</p> <p>FP Premium subscribers get insider access to in-depth research reports on complex topics with far-reaching geopolitical implications, as well as exclusive conference calls with FP’s editors and reporters, Foreign Policy’s award-winning print magazine, and advanced access to live events.</p> </div> <div class="oc-premium-subscription-text--form"> <div class="login-options"> <h3>Sign in or Subscribe to Continue</h3> <h4>Sign in to your Foreign Policy account</h4> <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20190808224206/https://fp-reg.onecount.net/onecount/login/loginlogout.cgi" class="FP-paywall--login FP-paywall--login--login button button--grey">Sign In</a> <h4 class="border-top">Not an FP Premium subscriber?</h4> <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20190808224206/https://fp-reg.onecount.net/onecount/flexreg/displayform.php?g=0&form=581&signup=1" class="button button--grey">Subscribe Now</a> </div> <div class="subscription-options" style="display:none"> <div class="basic-options" style="display:none"> <h3>Upgrade to FP Premium to Continue</h3> <p>Thank you for being an FP Basic subscriber. To get access to this special FP Premium benefit, upgrade your subscription by clicking the button below.</p> <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20190808224206/https://fp-reg.onecount.net/onecount/flexreg/displayform.php?g=0&form=581&upgrade=premium" class="button">Upgrade Now</a> </div> <div class="registered-options" style="display:none"> <h3>Subscribe to Continue Reading</h3> <p>Thank you for being an FP reader. To get access to this special FP Premium benefit, subscribe by clicking the button below.</p> <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20190808224206/https://fp-reg.onecount.net/onecount/flexreg/displayform.php?g=0&form=581" class="button">Subscribe Now</a> </div> </div> </div> </div> <a href="javascript:void(0);" data-action="Close" class="paywall_close_btn"> <img src="https://web.archive.org/web/20190808224206im_/https://foreignpolicy.com/wp-content/themes/foreign-policy-2017/assets/src/images/icons/close-black.svg" class="paywall_close simplemodal-close" alt="[X]"> </a> </div> </div> </div> <script> !function(e,t,n,s,u,a){e.twq||(s=e.twq=function(){s.exe?s.exe.apply(s,arguments):s.queue.push(arguments); },s.version='1.1',s.queue=[],u=t.createElement(n),u.async=!0,u.src='//web.archive.org/web/20190808224206/https://static.ads-twitter.com/uwt.js', a=t.getElementsByTagName(n)[0],a.parentNode.insertBefore(u,a))}(window,document,'script'); // Insert Twitter Pixel ID and Standard Event data below twq('init','nzlz2'); twq('track','PageView'); </script> <script> window.onload = function() { var userStatus = FP.Singletons.User.isStatus().then(function (is) { var userStatus = 'anon'; if(is.sub) { userStatus = 'paid'; } else if(is.prem) { userStatus = 'paid'; } else if(is.reg) { userStatus = 'lgdin'; } var _sf_async_config = _sf_async_config || {}; /** CONFIGURATION START **/ _sf_async_config.uid = 62828; _sf_async_config.domain = 'foreignpolicy.com'; _sf_async_config.useCanonical = true; _sf_async_config.sections = "Report"; _sf_async_config.authors = "Lara Seligman, Robbie Gramer"; _cbq = window._cbq = (window._cbq || []); _cbq.push(['_acct', userStatus]); /** CONFIGURATION END **/ (function() { function loadChartbeat() { var e = document.createElement('script'); e.setAttribute('language', 'javascript'); e.setAttribute('type', 'text/javascript'); e.setAttribute('src', '//web.archive.org/web/20190808224206/https://static.chartbeat.com/js/chartbeat.js'); document.body.appendChild(e); } var oldonload = window.onload; window.onload = (typeof window.onload != 'function') ? loadChartbeat : function() { oldonload(); loadChartbeat(); }; })(); }); } </script> <script type="application/ld+json">{"@context":"https:\/\/web.archive.org\/web\/20190808224206\/http:\/\/schema.org","publisher":{"@type":"Organization","name":"Foreign Policy","logo":{"@type":"ImageObject","height":60,"url":"https:\/\/web.archive.org\/web\/20190808224206\/https:\/\/foreignpolicy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/04\/logo.png","width":74}},"@type":"BlogPosting","mainEntityOfPage":{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/web.archive.org\/web\/20190808224206\/https:\/\/foreignpolicy.com\/2019\/06\/21\/trump-fearing-casualties-aborts-iran-strike-at-last-minute\/"},"headline":"Why Trump Decided Not to Attack Iran","description":"Officials say the president is looking for a peaceful solution to the crisis.","datePublished":"2019-06-21T11:58:02+00:00","dateModified":"2019-06-21T16:01:56+00:00","author":[{"@type":"Person","name":"Lara Seligman"},{"@type":"Person","name":"Robbie Gramer"}],"image":{"@type":"ImageObject","url":"https:\/\/web.archive.org\/web\/20190808224206\/https:\/\/foreignpolicy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/06\/GettyImages-1151088613.jpg?w=1500","height":997,"width":1500}}</script> <script type="text/javascript"> var _sf_async_config={}; _sf_async_config.uid = 62828; _sf_async_config.domain = "foreignpolicy.com"; _sf_async_config.useCanonical = true; _sf_async_config.authors = "Lara Seligman,Robbie Gramer"; _sf_async_config.sections = "Report"; (function(){ function loadChartbeat() { window._sf_endpt=(new Date()).getTime(); var e = document.createElement('script'); e.setAttribute('language', 'javascript'); e.setAttribute('type', 'text/javascript'); e.setAttribute('src', '//web.archive.org/web/20190808224206/https://static.chartbeat.com/js/chartbeat.js'); document.body.appendChild(e); } var oldonload = window.onload; window.onload = (typeof window.onload != 'function') ? loadChartbeat : function() { try { oldonload(); } catch (e) { loadChartbeat(); throw e} loadChartbeat(); }; })(); </script> <script type="text/javascript" src="https://web.archive.org/web/20190808224206js_/https://s0.wp.com/wp-content/js/devicepx-jetpack.js?ver=201932"></script> <script type="text/javascript"> /* <![CDATA[ */ var fpUtilsLoc = {"isDev":"","redirectUri":"https:\/\/web.archive.org\/web\/20190808224206\/https:\/\/foreignpolicy.com\/share_redirect\/"}; /* ]]> */ </script> <script type="text/javascript" src="https://web.archive.org/web/20190808224206js_/https://foreignpolicy.com/_static/??-eJylkM0OwjAMg1+Ikm3i94B4lhLC2tE1Ux2GeHsqceDMONkXf05Mz8mxZpNsZEFGAd20SOyzmzRFfrmuaffkATEQChO4xKn6iwQ/Ry2gXLX3FjWvB6xoMXGWfNVC7BF+AMFqNdMAelhMoKTsE0yL72U55r9Pvtuw6j2Kq1l87jmPp3a76w5du2mOwxueZ4xP"></script> <script type="text/javascript" src="//web.archive.org/web/20190808224206js_/https://cdn.taboola.com/libtrc/foreignpolicy/loader.js"></script> <script type="text/javascript"> /* <![CDATA[ */ var FPMarketingSettings = {"_preview":null,"sponsored":null,"anon":null,"print":null,"premium":null,"__meta":{"disable_paywall":false,"localdata_prefix":"__FPMarketingTakeover_","tracking_prefix":""}}; /* ]]> */ </script> <script type="text/javascript"> /* <![CDATA[ */ var myFpAlertsLoc = {"isVIPEnv":"1"}; /* ]]> */ </script> <script type="text/javascript"> /* <![CDATA[ */ var fpIPAccessState = {"printArchiveUrl":"https:\/\/web.archive.org\/web\/20190808224206\/https:\/\/foreignpolicy.com\/print-archive\/","ipAccessEnabled":"1","fpAnalyticsUrl":"https:\/\/web.archive.org\/web\/20190808224206\/https:\/\/foreignpolicy.com\/fp-insights\/"}; /* ]]> */ </script> <script type="text/javascript"> /* <![CDATA[ */ var fpPaywallAfterArticle = {"links":["https:\/\/web.archive.org\/web\/20190808224206\/https:\/\/www.foreignpolicy.com\/subscribe"],"links_text":["<b>The story doesn\u2019t end here, but this month\u2019s free articles soon will. <\/b><br \/>Subscribe for unlimited content today."],"offers_text":["Subscribe for $2.25\/week"],"links_b":[""],"links_b_text":[""],"offers_b_text":[""]}; /* ]]> */ </script> <script type="text/javascript"> /* <![CDATA[ */ var fpPaywallPopup = {"links":{"links":"https:\/\/web.archive.org\/web\/20190808224206\/https:\/\/www.foreignpolicy.com\/subscribe","links_text":"<b>The story doesn\u2019t end here, but this month\u2019s free articles soon will. <\/b><br \/>Subscribe for unlimited content today.","offers_text":"Subscribe for $2.25\/week","links_b":"\/subscribe","links_b_text":"","offers_b_text":"","popup":"https:\/\/web.archive.org\/web\/20190808224206\/https:\/\/foreignpolicy.com\/subscribe","popupB":""}}; /* ]]> */ </script> <script type="text/javascript"> /* <![CDATA[ */ var fpPaywallRegwall = {"link":"https:\/\/web.archive.org\/web\/20190808224206\/https:\/\/foreignpolicy.com\/?modal=login"}; /* ]]> */ </script> <script type="text/javascript"> /* <![CDATA[ */ var zMoatADVERTISER = {"moatPassback":"editorial"}; /* ]]> */ </script> <script type="text/javascript" src="https://web.archive.org/web/20190808224206js_/https://foreignpolicy.com/_static/??-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"></script> <script type="text/javascript" src="https://web.archive.org/web/20190808224206js_/https://stats.wp.com/e-201932.js" async="async" defer="defer"></script> <script type="text/javascript"> _stq = window._stq || []; _stq.push([ 'view', {v:'ext',j:'1:7.6',blog:'162972146',post:'971280',tz:'-4',srv:'foreignpolicy.com'} ]); _stq.push([ 'clickTrackerInit', '162972146', '971280' ]); </script>  <script type="text/javascript"> /*<![CDATA[*/ window.lightboxjs || function (c) { function g(b, d) { d && (d += (/\?/.test(d) ? "&" : "?") + "lv=1"); c[b] || function () { var i = window, h = document, j = b, g = h.location.protocol, l = "load", k = 0; (function () { function b() { a.P(l); a.w = 1; c[j]("_load") } c[j] = function () { function m() { m.id = e; return c[j].apply(m, arguments) } var b, e = ++k; b = this && this != i ? this.id || 0 : 0; (a.s = a.s || []).push([e, b, arguments]); m.then = function (b, c, h) { var d = a.fh[e] = a.fh[e] || [], j = a.eh[e] = a.eh[e] || [], f = a.ph[e] = a.ph[e] || []; b && d.push(b); c && j.push(c); h && f.push(h); return m }; return m }; var a = c[j]._ = {}; a.fh = {}; a.eh = {}; a.ph = {}; a.l = d ? d.replace(/^\/\//, (g == "https:" ? g : "http:") + "//") : d; a.p = { 0: +new Date }; a.P = function (b) { a.p[b] = new Date - a.p[0] }; a.w && b(); i.addEventListener ? i.addEventListener(l, b, !1) : i.attachEvent("on" + l, b); var q = function () { function b() { return ["<head></head><", c, ' onload="var d=', n, ";d.getElementsByTagName('head')[0].", d, "(d.", g, "('script')).", i, "='", a.l, "'\"></", c, ">"].join("") } var c = "body", e = h[c]; if (!e) return setTimeout(q, 100); a.P(1); var d = "appendChild", g = "createElement", i = "src", k = h[g]("div"), l = k[d](h[g]("div")), f = h[g]("iframe"), n = "document", p; k.style.display = "none"; e.insertBefore(k, e.firstChild).id = o + "-" + j; f.frameBorder = "0"; f.id = o + "-frame-" + j; /MSIE[ ]+6/.test(navigator.userAgent) && (f[i] = "javascript:false"); f.allowTransparency = "true"; l[d](f); try { f.contentWindow[n].open() } catch (s) { a.domain = h.domain, p = "javascript:var d=" + n + ".open();d.domain='" + h.domain + "';", f[i] = p + "void(0);" } try { var r = f.contentWindow[n]; r.write(b()); r.close() } catch (t) { f[i] = p + 'd.write("' + b().replace(/"/g, String.fromCharCode(92) + '"') + '");d.close();' } a.P(2) }; a.l && q() })() }(); c[b].lv = "1"; return c[b] } var o = "lightboxjs", k = window[o] = g(o); k.require = g; k.modules = c }({}); /*]]>*/</script><script type="text/javascript">window.lightboxlib = lightboxjs.require("lightboxlib", "//web.archive.org/web/20190808224206/https://www.lightboxcdn.com/vendor/044b8435-d6a0-427d-af56-eec8f6ae795a/lightbox.js?mb=" + (new Date().getTime()));</script>  <script type="text/javascript">window.NREUM||(NREUM={});NREUM.info={"beacon":"bam.nr-data.net","licenseKey":"f5b9626936","applicationID":"224917688","transactionName":"Z1cDYUFXXhVYWkINXF4dNEdaGVkIXVxOSkNYQg==","queueTime":0,"applicationTime":1018,"atts":"SxAUFwlNTUobWBReSE1P","errorBeacon":"bam.nr-data.net","agent":""}</script></body> </html>

CINXE.COM

Why Trump Decided Not to Attack Iran – Foreign Policy