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type="button" id="button_id" class="mdc-c-button___U4iY2_80caed7 mdc-c-button--ghost mdc-c-button--size-medium FullHero_mck-c-full-hero__arrow__jtXdj" data-click-track="true" data-layer-event-prefix="UI Item" data-layer-action="click" data-layer-category="article" data-layer-text="skip article header section" data-layer-region="full hero"><span data-component="mdc-c-icon" class="mdc-c-icon___oi7ef_80caed7 mdc-c-icon--size-xl___3BEee_80caed7 mck-arrow-down-icon"></span></button></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div><div class="mck-o-container"><div class="mck-o-container--wrapped mck-o-container--mobile-spacing mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-gutter-xxl"><section data-layer-region="article-body-header" class="mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-col-md-12 mck-u-animation-blur-in-400 byline-share-container"><div class="mdc-u-grid-col-md-start-2 mdc-u-grid-col-md-end-7 mdc-u-grid-col-lg-start-3 mdc-u-grid-col-lg-end-8 mdc-u-ts-10"></div></section><section class="mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-col-md-12 mck-u-animation-blur-in-400"><div class="mdc-u-grid-col-md-start-2 mdc-u-grid-col-md-end-12 mdc-u-grid-col-lg-start-3 mdc-u-grid-col-lg-end-11"><div data-component="mdc-c-description" class="mdc-c-description___SrnQP_80caed7 mdc-u-ts-5"><div class="mck-u-links-inline">As the energy transition continues apace, the global materials supply is adapting. Our Global Materials Perspective 2024 presents a data-driven view of the road ahead.</div></div></div></section><main data-layer-region="article-body" class="mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-gutter-xxl"><div class="mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-col-1 mdc-u-grid-col-md-12"><div class="mdc-u-grid-col-md-start-2 mdc-u-grid-col-md-end-12 mdc-u-grid-col-lg-start-3 mdc-u-grid-col-lg-end-11"><div class="mdc-o-content-body mck-u-dropcap"> <div data-component="mdc-c-module-wrapper" data-module-theme="default" data-module-background="transparent" data-module-category="" class="DownloadsSidebar_mck-c-downloads-sidebar__iFmyt mck-o-xs-right-span"><div data-layer-region="downloads-right-rail"><h3 data-component="mdc-c-heading" class="mdc-c-heading___0fM1W_80caed7 mdc-c-heading--title___5qyOB_80caed7 mdc-c-heading--border___K8dj3_80caed7"></h3><div><div data-component="mdc-c-link-container" class="mdc-c-link-container___xefGu_80caed7"><a data-component="mdc-c-link" href="#/download/%2F~%2Fmedia%2Fmckinsey%2Findustries%2Fenergy%20and%20materials%2Four%20insights%2Fglobal%20materials%20perspective%202024%2Fglobal-materials-perspective-2024.pdf%3FshouldIndex%3Dfalse" class="DownloadsSidebar_mck-c-downloads-sidebar__download-link__fPqFQ mdc-c-link___lBbY1_80caed7" target="_self" data-layer-event-prefix="Download Link" data-layer-action="click" data-layer-report-type="" data-layer-file-name="global-materials-perspective-2024" data-layer-report-name="global-materials-perspective-2024>"><span data-component="mdc-c-icon" class="mdc-c-icon___oi7ef_80caed7 mdc-c-icon--size-md___yi5fA_80caed7 mck-download-icon"></span><span class="mdc-c-link__label___Pfqtd_80caed7"> (27 pages)</span></a></div></div></div></div> <p><strong>The global metals and mining industry</strong> is entering a new era. Historically, the industry has been driven by economic growth and the development of the middle class, resulting in major demand growth for materials such as steel, aluminum, and coal. While 80 percent of the industry today primarily consists of five materials—steel, coal, gold, copper, and aluminum—the landscape is rapidly changing as a result of the energy transition.</p> <p>Indeed, the energy transition is first and foremost a physical transformation and the key challenges are therefore mostly physical, including the timely availability of materials embedded in low-carbon technologies (as detailed in McKinsey Global Institute’s 2024 report, <a href="/mgi/our-research/the-hard-stuff-navigating-the-physical-realities-of-the-energy-transition"><em>The hard stuff: Navigating the physical realities of the energy transition</em></a>). The energy transition is changing the materials landscape in three ways:</p> <ul> <li>It accelerates demand growth for materials that are embedded in low-carbon technologies as these technologies typically require more embedded materials than their conventional counterparts. For example, battery electric vehicles (BEVs) are typically 15 to 20 percent heavier than comparable internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles.</li> <li>It triggers a long-term shift of the materials demand profile as low-carbon technologies require a different set of energy transition materials, which is gradually increasing the relative importance of these materials in the overall metals and mining portfolio.</li> <li>It drives a long-term reduction of thermal coal in the energy system, currently the second largest material in metals and mining measured by revenue (2023).</li> </ul> <p>Key materials for the energy transition are crucial to achieve decarbonization in the global energy system—and a lack of sufficient and affordable supply would therefore risk hindering the at-speed deployment of crucial low-carbon technologies. This report aims to provide a fact base and perspective on the need to scale these materials sustainably and affordably. We present a view of the possible road ahead, based on data from approved, publicly available sources, checking this view against three energy transition scenarios differentiated by the speed of the transition as well as two supply scenarios modeled by McKinsey Metal&MineSpans and based on asset level insights.</p> <p>The road ahead will inevitably bring challenges, including how to accelerate the scaling of supply to meet new demand patterns, how to keep materials affordable so they can continue to support the energy transition and fuel economic growth, and how to improve the sustainability of the industry. This is not simple, especially in the context of an evolving global policy landscape that further increases uncertainty for investors.</p> <p>However, we are hopeful that the industry’s response to the energy transition also presents substantial business opportunities for incumbents and new entrants alike, whether from conscious portfolio shifts, disruptive innovation, new business models, or the next wave of operational and capital expenditure (capex) advances, in some cases enabled by AI.</p> <div data-component="mdc-c-module-wrapper" data-module-theme="default" data-module-background="transparent" data-module-category="" class="mck-c-disruptor1up mck-o-md-center mck-u-inline-module-border-top mck-u-inline-module-border-bottom mck-u-screen-only" data-layer-region="disruptor-1up"><div class="mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-gutter-md mdc-u-grid-col-lg-12 mdc-u-grid-col-md-12 "><div class="mdc-u-grid-col-lg-span-4 mdc-u-grid-col-md-span-5 Disruptor1Up_mck-c-disruptor1up__image___2Gc4"><picture data-component="mdc-c-picture"><img alt="Move from plans to progress." src="/~/media/mckinsey/business%20functions/sustainability/how%20we%20help%20clients/sustainability-campaign_promo-thumb_1536x1536.jpg?cq=50&mh=145&car=16:9&cpy=Center" loading="lazy"/></picture></div><div class="mdc-u-grid-col-lg-span-8 mdc-u-grid-col-md-span-7"><header data-component="mdc-c-header" class="mdc-c-header"><div class="mdc-c-header__block___i1Lg-_80caed7"><h3 data-component="mdc-c-heading" class="mdc-c-heading___0fM1W_80caed7"><div><span class="disrupt-ab">Move from plans to progress.</span></div></h3><div data-component="mdc-c-description" class="mdc-c-description___SrnQP_80caed7 mdc-u-ts-7"><p><div>Sustainability matters. Together we’ll make it real.</div></p></div></div></header><div data-component="mdc-c-link-container" class="mdc-c-link-container___xefGu_80caed7 mdc-c-link-container--display-column___X0HDD_80caed7 mck-c-disruptor1up__content Disruptor1Up_mck-c-disruptor1up__content--links__VV4lE mdc-u-grid-gutter-md"><a data-component="mdc-c-link" href="https://www.mckinsey.com/capabilities/sustainability/how-we-help-clients/?cid=susti24-ste-crk-mbm-m01-other-glb-web" class="mdc-c-link-cta___NBQVi_80caed7" target="_blank"><span class="mdc-c-link__label___Pfqtd_80caed7">Get started</span><span data-component="mdc-c-icon" class="mdc-c-icon___oi7ef_80caed7 mck-external-icon"></span></a></div></div></div></div> <div data-component="mdc-c-module-wrapper" data-module-theme="default" data-module-background="transparent" data-module-category="" class="mck-c-inline-module-container mck-o-edge-to-edge StoryContainer_mck-c-story-container__TLkZC mck-c-module-wrapper"><div data-component="mdc-c-module-wrapper" data-module-theme="light" data-module-background="lightest-grey" data-module-category="" class="StoryContainer_mck-c-story-container__item__YhXnX"><div class="mck-o-container"><div class="mck-o-container--wrapped mck-o-container--mobile-spacing mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-col-md-12 StoryContainer_mck-c-story-container__content-item__fg74z"><div data-component="mdc-c-content-block" class="mdc-c-content-block___7p6Lu_80caed7 mdc-u-grid-gutter-md StoryContainer_mck-c-story-container__content-text__DEQ4O StoryContainer_mck-c-story-container__container-sticky__EK8hB StoryContainer_mck-c-story-container__container-sticky--extra-spacing__uDmVE mdc-u-grid-col-md-span-4"><h2 data-component="mdc-c-heading" class="mdc-c-heading___0fM1W_80caed7 mdc-u-ts-5"><div>Despite a turbulent environment, finances were healthy until 2023—yet 2024 has a gloomier outlook</div></h2><div data-component="mdc-c-description" class="mdc-c-description___SrnQP_80caed7 mdc-u-ts-8 mck-u-links-inline"><div><p><strong>The materials industry has grown revenue by 6 percent per annum since 2000</strong></p> <p>The past two to three years have posed some challenges for the materials industry, with high price volatility driven by increased supply chain disruptions and volatility in energy prices, among other factors. While the industry has experienced previous cycles of boom and bust, these recent fluctuations are unprecedented in scale.</p> <p>Despite the challenges, the materials industry has shown strong financial results over the past few years when compared with historical averages. Revenues grew by approximately $2.4 trillion (more than 40 percent) from 2020 to 2023, primarily driven by metals and mining, which grew by $1.7 trillion (an increase of approximately 75 percent). During the same period, EBITDA in metals and mining nearly doubled, increasing from $500 billion to $900 billion.</p> <p>Overall, balance sheets are healthy, with net debt over EBITDA ratios of 1.3 times—well below the through-cycle average of 1.8 times—providing companies with more investment capacity.</p> <p>However, 2024 is projected to be a more challenging year for the industry as overall economic growth slows down and the shift toward low-carbon technologies unfolds more slowly than expected, both of which are putting downward pressure on price levels, especially for battery materials such as nickel and lithium.</p></div></div></div><div class="StoryContainer_mck-c-story-container__content-media__o8N4Z StoryContainer_mck-c-story-container__container-sticky__EK8hB StoryContainer_mck-c-story-container__container-sticky--extra-spacing__uDmVE mdc-u-grid-col-md-span-8"><div class=""><picture data-component="mdc-c-picture" class="Exhibit_mck-c-exhibit__image__pyIDm"><source media="(min-width: 768px)" srcSet="/~/media/mckinsey/industries/energy%20and%20materials/our%20insights/global%20materials%20perspective%202024/svgz-gmp-2024_ex01-v21.svgz?cq=50&cpy=Center"/><img alt="The materials industry has grown by 6 percent per annum since 2000, toward and industry of about $8 trillion in 2023." src="/~/media/mckinsey/industries/energy%20and%20materials/our%20insights/global%20materials%20perspective%202024/svgz-gmp-2024_ex01-v21.svgz?cq=50&cpy=Center" loading="lazy"/></picture></div><div class="mck-u-sr-only"></div></div></div></div></div><div data-component="mdc-c-module-wrapper" data-module-theme="light" data-module-background="white" data-module-category="" class="StoryContainer_mck-c-story-container__item__YhXnX"><div class="mck-o-container"><div class="mck-o-container--wrapped mck-o-container--mobile-spacing mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-col-md-12 StoryContainer_mck-c-story-container__content-item__fg74z"><div data-component="mdc-c-content-block" class="mdc-c-content-block___7p6Lu_80caed7 mdc-u-grid-gutter-md StoryContainer_mck-c-story-container__content-text__DEQ4O StoryContainer_mck-c-story-container__container-sticky__EK8hB StoryContainer_mck-c-story-container__container-sticky--extra-spacing__uDmVE mdc-u-grid-col-md-span-4"><h2 data-component="mdc-c-heading" class="mdc-c-heading___0fM1W_80caed7 mdc-u-ts-5"><div>In metals and mining, around 80 percent of revenues stem from just five materials</div></h2><div data-component="mdc-c-description" class="mdc-c-description___SrnQP_80caed7 mdc-u-ts-8 mck-u-links-inline"><div><p><strong>Steel, thermal coal, copper, gold, and aluminum dominate the sector</strong></p> <p>The $4 trillion metals and mining industry is largely composed of just five materials: steel (including iron ore and metallurgical coal), thermal coal, copper, gold, and aluminum. Of these, thermal coal and steel account for approximately 60 to 70 percent of revenues, with production volumes more than 30 times higher than all other materials combined. Gold, copper, and aluminum make up another 15 to 20 percent.<span class="FootNote_footnote-holder__tjRqy"><a aria-label="footnote" href="javascript:void(0);" class="FootNote_footnote-wrapper__AIRwL undefined FootNote_bottom__9aoSL FootNote_inactive__VZfCp" aria-describedby="a94cba06-b9a7-42dc-837b-aed0cecb19f4"><sup class="FootNote_footnotesup__e73z_">1</sup><span class="FootNote_notch-wrapper__b_5NS"><span class="FootNote_notch__omKtY"></span></span><span class="FootNote_tooltip__QtrbA mdc-u-mt-2"><span class="FootNote_footnote-content__r2OVl"><span id="a94cba06-b9a7-42dc-837b-aed0cecb19f4" aria-hidden="true" data-module-theme="light" class="FootNote_footnote-text__VjKgO mck-u-links-inline">Thermal coal at approximately 7,000 megatons (Mt) and steel at approximately 2,000 Mt. Remaining materials are in the order of magnitude of 200 to 300 Mt, with aluminum being the third largest by volume at around 100 Mt.</span></span></span></a></span></p> <p>Other materials often associated with the energy transition, such as battery and magnet materials, remain small in terms of revenue but are growing in sync with the shift toward low-carbon technologies.</p></div></div></div><div class="StoryContainer_mck-c-story-container__content-media__o8N4Z StoryContainer_mck-c-story-container__container-sticky__EK8hB StoryContainer_mck-c-story-container__container-sticky--extra-spacing__uDmVE mdc-u-grid-col-md-span-8"><div class=""><picture data-component="mdc-c-picture" class="Exhibit_mck-c-exhibit__image__pyIDm"><source media="(min-width: 768px)" srcSet="/~/media/mckinsey/industries/energy%20and%20materials/our%20insights/global%20materials%20perspective%202024/svgz-gmp-2024_ex02-v20.svgz?cq=50&cpy=Center"/><img alt="The top five material value chains make up approximately 80 percent to 90 percent of metals and mining revenues." src="/~/media/mckinsey/industries/energy%20and%20materials/our%20insights/global%20materials%20perspective%202024/svgz-gmp-2024_ex02-v20.svgz?cq=50&cpy=Center" loading="lazy"/></picture></div><div class="mck-u-sr-only"></div></div></div></div></div><div data-component="mdc-c-module-wrapper" data-module-theme="light" data-module-background="lightest-grey" data-module-category="" class="StoryContainer_mck-c-story-container__item__YhXnX"><div class="mck-o-container"><div class="mck-o-container--wrapped mck-o-container--mobile-spacing mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-col-md-12 StoryContainer_mck-c-story-container__content-item__fg74z"><div data-component="mdc-c-content-block" class="mdc-c-content-block___7p6Lu_80caed7 mdc-u-grid-gutter-md StoryContainer_mck-c-story-container__content-text__DEQ4O StoryContainer_mck-c-story-container__container-sticky__EK8hB StoryContainer_mck-c-story-container__container-sticky--extra-spacing__uDmVE mdc-u-grid-col-md-span-4"><h2 data-component="mdc-c-heading" class="mdc-c-heading___0fM1W_80caed7 mdc-u-ts-5"><div>Supply is scaling faster than expected for several materials key to the transition</div></h2><div data-component="mdc-c-description" class="mdc-c-description___SrnQP_80caed7 mdc-u-ts-8 mck-u-links-inline"><div><p><strong>Lithium and nickel are ramping up faster, while copper lags behind</strong></p> <p>Comparing Metal&MineSpans’ first quarter 2020 projection for announced supply with actual production in 2023 shows that production for lithium and nickel was underestimated by nearly 20 percent.</p> <p>For lithium, the difference is driven by assets funded by Australian and US investors coming online faster than expected, as well as an unanticipated scale-up of lepidolite assets in China in response to elevated lithium prices. And for nickel, the ramp-up stems almost solely from integrated high-pressure acid leach (HPAL) laterite assets in Indonesia. This accelerated supply buildup—in combination with a slowdown in electric vehicle (EV) sales—partly explains recent downward price corrections and why some projects have been called back.</p> <p>By contrast, copper supply lags projections not only because of expected projects not coming online but also because several assets decreased production faster than anticipated.</p></div></div></div><div class="StoryContainer_mck-c-story-container__content-media__o8N4Z StoryContainer_mck-c-story-container__container-sticky__EK8hB StoryContainer_mck-c-story-container__container-sticky--extra-spacing__uDmVE mdc-u-grid-col-md-span-8"><div class=""><picture data-component="mdc-c-picture" class="Exhibit_mck-c-exhibit__image__pyIDm"><source media="(min-width: 768px)" srcSet="/~/media/mckinsey/industries/energy%20and%20materials/our%20insights/global%20materials%20perspective%202024/svgz-gmp-2024_ex04-v20.svgz?cq=50&cpy=Center"/><img alt="Mined lithium and nickel supply over the past years has seen a higher-than-expected growth, while copper is falling short." src="/~/media/mckinsey/industries/energy%20and%20materials/our%20insights/global%20materials%20perspective%202024/svgz-gmp-2024_ex04-v20.svgz?cq=50&cpy=Center" loading="lazy"/></picture></div><div class="mck-u-sr-only"></div></div></div></div></div><div data-component="mdc-c-module-wrapper" data-module-theme="light" data-module-background="white" data-module-category="" class="StoryContainer_mck-c-story-container__item__YhXnX"><div class="mck-o-container"><div class="mck-o-container--wrapped mck-o-container--mobile-spacing mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-col-md-12 StoryContainer_mck-c-story-container__content-item__fg74z"><div data-component="mdc-c-content-block" class="mdc-c-content-block___7p6Lu_80caed7 mdc-u-grid-gutter-md StoryContainer_mck-c-story-container__content-text__DEQ4O StoryContainer_mck-c-story-container__container-sticky__EK8hB StoryContainer_mck-c-story-container__container-sticky--extra-spacing__uDmVE mdc-u-grid-col-md-span-4"><h2 data-component="mdc-c-heading" class="mdc-c-heading___0fM1W_80caed7 mdc-u-ts-5"><div>Accelerated technological innovation is creating increasing uncertainty for demand outlooks</div></h2><div data-component="mdc-c-description" class="mdc-c-description___SrnQP_80caed7 mdc-u-ts-8 mck-u-links-inline"><div><p><strong>OEMs in automotive are rapidly shifting toward alternative technologies</strong></p> <p>As supply has scaled up faster than expected for some materials, demand patterns have adjusted in response to anticipated supply shortages.</p> <p>For example, the chemistry mix for batteries used in EVs is increasingly moving away from nickel-manganese-cobalt (NMC) to lithium-iron-phosphate (LFP). As another example, the share of leading OEMs stating they would shift toward electric motors that are less reliant on REEs increased from 30 percent in 2022 to 40 percent in 2023.</p> <p>These trends, however, are not consistent across materials. For instance, the move from iridium-intensive electrolyzers in anticipation of a potential iridium shortage is not yet apparent. This could be partially explained by the fact that hydrogen developers may still have flexibility to change electrolyzer designs at a later stage in the project development cycle.</p></div></div></div><div class="StoryContainer_mck-c-story-container__content-media__o8N4Z StoryContainer_mck-c-story-container__container-sticky__EK8hB StoryContainer_mck-c-story-container__container-sticky--extra-spacing__uDmVE mdc-u-grid-col-md-span-8"><div class=""><picture data-component="mdc-c-picture" class="Exhibit_mck-c-exhibit__image__pyIDm"><source media="(min-width: 768px)" srcSet="/~/media/mckinsey/industries/energy%20and%20materials/our%20insights/global%20materials%20perspective%202024/svgz-gmp-2024_ex05-v20.svgz?cq=50&cpy=Center"/><img alt="Demand patterns are adjusting given anticipated supply shortages." src="/~/media/mckinsey/industries/energy%20and%20materials/our%20insights/global%20materials%20perspective%202024/svgz-gmp-2024_ex05-v20.svgz?cq=50&cpy=Center" loading="lazy"/></picture></div><div class="mck-u-sr-only"></div></div></div></div></div><div data-component="mdc-c-module-wrapper" data-module-theme="light" data-module-background="lightest-grey" data-module-category="" class="StoryContainer_mck-c-story-container__item__YhXnX"><div class="mck-o-container"><div class="mck-o-container--wrapped mck-o-container--mobile-spacing mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-col-md-12 StoryContainer_mck-c-story-container__content-item__fg74z"><div data-component="mdc-c-content-block" class="mdc-c-content-block___7p6Lu_80caed7 mdc-u-grid-gutter-md StoryContainer_mck-c-story-container__content-text__DEQ4O StoryContainer_mck-c-story-container__container-sticky__EK8hB StoryContainer_mck-c-story-container__container-sticky--extra-spacing__uDmVE mdc-u-grid-col-md-span-4"><h2 data-component="mdc-c-heading" class="mdc-c-heading___0fM1W_80caed7 mdc-u-ts-5"><div>Demand projections remain strong, with the majority of materials outpacing absolute historical growth</div></h2><div data-component="mdc-c-description" class="mdc-c-description___SrnQP_80caed7 mdc-u-ts-8 mck-u-links-inline"><div><p><strong>The highest relative growth will come from copper and lithium</strong></p> <p>Demand projections remain strong from now until 2035. In fact, except for steel and thermal coal, demand is expected to outpace absolute historical growth in the coming decade compared with the previous decade for all materials considered in this report, with lithium and copper in particular standing out.</p> <p>Nickel and rare earth elements (REEs) are also projected to grow faster than in the previous decade, yet outlooks for both have been adjusted downward over the past nine months as demand from the automotive sector is shifting away from high-nickel batteries and REE-intensive electric-vehicle motors.</p></div></div></div><div class="StoryContainer_mck-c-story-container__content-media__o8N4Z StoryContainer_mck-c-story-container__container-sticky__EK8hB StoryContainer_mck-c-story-container__container-sticky--extra-spacing__uDmVE mdc-u-grid-col-md-span-8"><div class=""><picture data-component="mdc-c-picture" class="Exhibit_mck-c-exhibit__image__pyIDm"><source media="(min-width: 768px)" srcSet="/~/media/mckinsey/industries/energy%20and%20materials/our%20insights/global%20materials%20perspective%202024/svgz-gmp-2024_ex03-v20.svgz?cq=50&cpy=Center"/><img alt="Demand outlook in 2023 remains strong, outpacing historical pace, notably for lithium (+475 percent), nickel (+60 percent), and copper (+30 percent)." src="/~/media/mckinsey/industries/energy%20and%20materials/our%20insights/global%20materials%20perspective%202024/svgz-gmp-2024_ex03-v20.svgz?cq=50&cpy=Center" loading="lazy"/></picture></div><div class="mck-u-sr-only"></div></div></div></div></div><div data-component="mdc-c-module-wrapper" data-module-theme="light" data-module-background="white" data-module-category="" class="StoryContainer_mck-c-story-container__item__YhXnX"><div class="mck-o-container"><div class="mck-o-container--wrapped mck-o-container--mobile-spacing mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-col-md-12 StoryContainer_mck-c-story-container__content-item__fg74z"><div data-component="mdc-c-content-block" class="mdc-c-content-block___7p6Lu_80caed7 mdc-u-grid-gutter-md StoryContainer_mck-c-story-container__content-text__DEQ4O StoryContainer_mck-c-story-container__container-sticky__EK8hB StoryContainer_mck-c-story-container__container-sticky--extra-spacing__uDmVE mdc-u-grid-col-md-span-4"><h2 data-component="mdc-c-heading" class="mdc-c-heading___0fM1W_80caed7 mdc-u-ts-5"><div>Expected supply-demand in 2035 is more balanced compared with our 2023 perspective, but shortages are still anticipated for several materials</div></h2><div data-component="mdc-c-description" class="mdc-c-description___SrnQP_80caed7 mdc-u-ts-8 mck-u-links-inline"><div><p><strong>REEs, lithium, sulfur, uranium, iridium, and copper may face shortages</strong></p> <p>Recent changes in supply and demand have altered the projected supply–demand gap, especially after 2030. In the past 24 months, both nickel and cobalt have moved from expected undersupply to oversupply, as an example.</p> <p>That said, shortages are still anticipated for several materials key to the energy transition, in particular REEs, lithium, sulfur, uranium, iridium, and copper.</p> <p>For materials where timelines for project development are fairly limited (in some cases less than five years), the supply–demand gap is likely to close by further scaling up supply once demand signals become strong enough. This is the case for uranium, for which scaling challenges depend mainly on the uncertain future of nuclear power as opposed to the scarcity of reserves or a sufficient number of potential projects. A similar example is seen in lithium, where reserves are abundant and mines have relatively short development timelines.</p> <p>For other materials, the supply–demand gap is less likely to close through the accelerated scale-up of supply because of long project timelines or limited high-quality reserves and projects. In such cases, given that supply and demand must match, demand adaptation or reduction is expected to take place to balance the market. The most notable example in this category is copper.</p></div></div></div><div class="StoryContainer_mck-c-story-container__content-media__o8N4Z StoryContainer_mck-c-story-container__container-sticky__EK8hB StoryContainer_mck-c-story-container__container-sticky--extra-spacing__uDmVE mdc-u-grid-col-md-span-8"><div class=""><picture data-component="mdc-c-picture" class="Exhibit_mck-c-exhibit__image__pyIDm"><source media="(min-width: 768px)" srcSet="/~/media/mckinsey/industries/energy%20and%20materials/our%20insights/global%20materials%20perspective%202024/svgz-gmp-2024_ex06-v20.svgz?cq=50&cpy=Center"/><img alt="Changes in supply and demand have led to a more balanced outlook, but supply shortage is still anticipated for several materials." src="/~/media/mckinsey/industries/energy%20and%20materials/our%20insights/global%20materials%20perspective%202024/svgz-gmp-2024_ex06-v20.svgz?cq=50&cpy=Center" loading="lazy"/></picture></div><div class="mck-u-sr-only"></div></div></div></div></div><div data-component="mdc-c-module-wrapper" data-module-theme="light" data-module-background="lightest-grey" data-module-category="" class="StoryContainer_mck-c-story-container__item__YhXnX"><div class="mck-o-container"><div class="mck-o-container--wrapped mck-o-container--mobile-spacing mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-col-md-12 StoryContainer_mck-c-story-container__content-item__fg74z"><div data-component="mdc-c-content-block" class="mdc-c-content-block___7p6Lu_80caed7 mdc-u-grid-gutter-md StoryContainer_mck-c-story-container__content-text__DEQ4O StoryContainer_mck-c-story-container__container-sticky__EK8hB StoryContainer_mck-c-story-container__container-sticky--extra-spacing__uDmVE mdc-u-grid-col-md-span-4"><h2 data-component="mdc-c-heading" class="mdc-c-heading___0fM1W_80caed7 mdc-u-ts-5"><div>As much as $5.4 trillion in capex and 270 gigawatts of power is needed by 2035 to scale up supply to meet expected demand</div></h2><div data-component="mdc-c-description" class="mdc-c-description___SrnQP_80caed7 mdc-u-ts-8 mck-u-links-inline"><div><p><strong>A third of a million new jobs may also be needed, as well as infrastructure build-out</strong></p> <p>Scaling up will be challenging. Meeting projected demand will require an efficient and timely deployment of investments, energy, and logistics infrastructure and equipment, as well as the proper capabilities and steady freshwater availability.</p> <ul> <li><em>Capex:</em> On a global level, $5.4 trillion<span class="FootNote_footnote-holder__tjRqy"><a aria-label="footnote" href="javascript:void(0);" class="FootNote_footnote-wrapper__AIRwL undefined FootNote_bottom__9aoSL FootNote_inactive__VZfCp" aria-describedby="1932cfb7-d995-4893-bf5c-3ac1fd7d85f9"><sup class="FootNote_footnotesup__e73z_">1</sup><span class="FootNote_notch-wrapper__b_5NS"><span class="FootNote_notch__omKtY"></span></span><span class="FootNote_tooltip__QtrbA mdc-u-mt-2"><span class="FootNote_footnote-content__r2OVl"><span id="1932cfb7-d995-4893-bf5c-3ac1fd7d85f9" aria-hidden="true" data-module-theme="light" class="FootNote_footnote-text__VjKgO mck-u-links-inline">Capex covers exploration, sustaining existing projects, and new projects for both mining and refining.</span></span></span></a></span> is needed for supply to match current demand outlooks by 2035, an approximate 10 percent increase compared with the previous decade.</li> <li><em>Energy:</em> As much as 270 GW power is needed (with another 1,100 GW needed to decarbonize) by 2035. That said, the power required, although significant, does not constitute more than 3 percent of projected demand for renewables in 2035.</li> <li><em>Labor:</em> 340,000 new jobs globally could be needed in the industry to scale supply, while 1.25 million jobs are at risk in the thermal coal industry.</li> </ul> <p>Local challenges regarding skilled labor, steady energy supply, water availability, logistics infrastructure, and equipment supply may hinder deployment, alongside project affordability.</p></div></div></div><div class="StoryContainer_mck-c-story-container__content-media__o8N4Z StoryContainer_mck-c-story-container__container-sticky__EK8hB StoryContainer_mck-c-story-container__container-sticky--extra-spacing__uDmVE mdc-u-grid-col-md-span-8"><div class=""><picture data-component="mdc-c-picture" class="Exhibit_mck-c-exhibit__image__pyIDm"><source media="(min-width: 768px)" srcSet="/~/media/mckinsey/industries/energy%20and%20materials/our%20insights/global%20materials%20perspective%202024/svgz-gmp-2024_ex07-v20.svgz?cq=50&cpy=Center"/><img alt="$5.4 trillion and 270 gigawatts of power are needed to scale up supply to meet expected demand, but this scale up puts coal jobs at risk." src="/~/media/mckinsey/industries/energy%20and%20materials/our%20insights/global%20materials%20perspective%202024/svgz-gmp-2024_ex07-v20.svgz?cq=50&cpy=Center" loading="lazy"/></picture></div><div class="mck-u-sr-only"></div></div></div></div></div><div data-component="mdc-c-module-wrapper" data-module-theme="light" data-module-background="white" data-module-category="" class="StoryContainer_mck-c-story-container__item__YhXnX"><div class="mck-o-container"><div class="mck-o-container--wrapped mck-o-container--mobile-spacing mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-col-md-12 StoryContainer_mck-c-story-container__content-item__fg74z"><div data-component="mdc-c-content-block" class="mdc-c-content-block___7p6Lu_80caed7 mdc-u-grid-gutter-md StoryContainer_mck-c-story-container__content-text__DEQ4O StoryContainer_mck-c-story-container__container-sticky__EK8hB StoryContainer_mck-c-story-container__container-sticky--extra-spacing__uDmVE mdc-u-grid-col-md-span-4"><h2 data-component="mdc-c-heading" class="mdc-c-heading___0fM1W_80caed7 mdc-u-ts-5"><div>Price increases will likely be required to incentivize sufficient supply to come online</div></h2><div data-component="mdc-c-description" class="mdc-c-description___SrnQP_80caed7 mdc-u-ts-8 mck-u-links-inline"><div><p><strong>Current copper prices will need to increase by 20 percent to drive sufficient supply</strong></p> <p>Since 2022, lithium prices have dropped by approximately 80 percent to $14,500 per ton lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE) and prices for nickel have dropped by approximately 20 percent to $20,000 per ton.<span class="FootNote_footnote-holder__tjRqy"><a aria-label="footnote" href="javascript:void(0);" class="FootNote_footnote-wrapper__AIRwL undefined FootNote_bottom__9aoSL FootNote_inactive__VZfCp" aria-describedby="50fe0876-4386-4a37-a247-1f5700392453"><sup class="FootNote_footnotesup__e73z_">1</sup><span class="FootNote_notch-wrapper__b_5NS"><span class="FootNote_notch__omKtY"></span></span><span class="FootNote_tooltip__QtrbA mdc-u-mt-2"><span class="FootNote_footnote-content__r2OVl"><span id="50fe0876-4386-4a37-a247-1f5700392453" aria-hidden="true" data-module-theme="light" class="FootNote_footnote-text__VjKgO mck-u-links-inline">Comparing the annual average price of 2022 with year-to-date prices in May 2024.</span></span></span></a></span> These decreases represent a “normalization” rather than a drastic shift in industry dynamics, as prices moved closer to typical production costs.</p> <p>To incentivize sufficient supply, nickel prices would need to increase by around $1,000 per ton, a 5 percent increase, assuming that the most economical projects would be prioritized and delivered on time. For lithium and copper, the pipeline of announced projects is smaller, and the demand increase is higher. Therefore, a higher price increase would be needed to incentivize sufficient supply to meet demand. For copper, an approximate 20 percent increase from current prices would be needed, and for lithium, the approximate required price increase is 30 percent, provided all announced projects come online.</p> <p>However, history has shown that the most economical projects are not always the first to be realized, given the range of barriers aside from profitability that can impact project execution, such as permitting delays. Moreover, individual projects may also have different required rates of return to be approved by owners and investors, which would in turn mean different levels of required incentive prices.</p> <p>All in all, if some of the more profitable projects were not to advance—whether due to barriers or higher return rates required—a further price increase would be needed to bring new supply online.</p></div></div></div><div class="StoryContainer_mck-c-story-container__content-media__o8N4Z StoryContainer_mck-c-story-container__container-sticky__EK8hB StoryContainer_mck-c-story-container__container-sticky--extra-spacing__uDmVE mdc-u-grid-col-md-span-8"><div class=""><picture data-component="mdc-c-picture" class="Exhibit_mck-c-exhibit__image__pyIDm"><source media="(min-width: 768px)" srcSet="/~/media/mckinsey/industries/energy%20and%20materials/our%20insights/global%20materials%20perspective%202024/svgz-gmp-2024_ex08-v20.svgz?cq=50&cpy=Center"/><img alt="Prices would have to further increase across materials to incentivize sufficient supply to come online to meet demand." src="/~/media/mckinsey/industries/energy%20and%20materials/our%20insights/global%20materials%20perspective%202024/svgz-gmp-2024_ex08-v20.svgz?cq=50&cpy=Center" loading="lazy"/></picture></div><div class="mck-u-sr-only"></div></div></div></div></div><div data-component="mdc-c-module-wrapper" data-module-theme="light" data-module-background="lightest-grey" data-module-category="" class="StoryContainer_mck-c-story-container__item__YhXnX"><div class="mck-o-container"><div class="mck-o-container--wrapped mck-o-container--mobile-spacing mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-col-md-12 StoryContainer_mck-c-story-container__content-item__fg74z"><div data-component="mdc-c-content-block" class="mdc-c-content-block___7p6Lu_80caed7 mdc-u-grid-gutter-md StoryContainer_mck-c-story-container__content-text__DEQ4O StoryContainer_mck-c-story-container__container-sticky__EK8hB StoryContainer_mck-c-story-container__container-sticky--extra-spacing__uDmVE mdc-u-grid-col-md-span-4"><h2 data-component="mdc-c-heading" class="mdc-c-heading___0fM1W_80caed7 mdc-u-ts-5"><div>Over the next decade, total metal and mining emissions are estimated to decrease by a modest 15 percent</div></h2><div data-component="mdc-c-description" class="mdc-c-description___SrnQP_80caed7 mdc-u-ts-8 mck-u-links-inline"><div><p><strong>The metals and mining industry could contribute 13 percent of global emissions in 2035</strong></p> <p>In 2023, total production emissions from the metals and mining industry accounted for approximately 15 percent of global emissions. Assuming no external shifts, the share is estimated to decrease to approximately 13 percent by 2035—a 15 percent decline.</p> <p>This decrease in emissions is driven by the net effect of several factors:</p> <ul> <li><strong>Changes in demand:</strong> Net impact from decreasing emissions from thermal coal production, offset by increasing emissions from other materials that will see demand growth.</li> <li><strong>Grid decarbonization:</strong> The global grid is projected to decarbonize by close to 50 percent as the share of renewable energy increases, reducing emissions for those assets that are reliant on grid power for their operations.<span class="FootNote_footnote-holder__tjRqy"><a aria-label="footnote" href="javascript:void(0);" class="FootNote_footnote-wrapper__AIRwL undefined FootNote_bottom__9aoSL FootNote_inactive__VZfCp" aria-describedby="5d9b6ef6-d4e0-4ade-8858-a0fa85b7444e"><sup class="FootNote_footnotesup__e73z_">1</sup><span class="FootNote_notch-wrapper__b_5NS"><span class="FootNote_notch__omKtY"></span></span><span class="FootNote_tooltip__QtrbA mdc-u-mt-2"><span class="FootNote_footnote-content__r2OVl"><span id="5d9b6ef6-d4e0-4ade-8858-a0fa85b7444e" aria-hidden="true" data-module-theme="light" class="FootNote_footnote-text__VjKgO mck-u-links-inline"><a href="/industries/energy-and-materials/our-insights/global-energy-perspective"><em>Global energy perspective 2024</em></a>, McKinsey, September, 2024.</span></span></span></a></span></li> <li><strong>Improved circularity:</strong> The share of recycled materials, which have a lower carbon footprint, will increase, driven by the higher availability of scrap and improved collection and recovery rates.</li> <li><strong>Efficiency improvements:</strong> Continued efficiency improvements estimated at 0.5 percentage point per annum.</li> <li><strong>Announced net-zero production:</strong> In addition to incremental decarbonization, there have been several announcements of asset-level transitions toward new technologies. In steel alone, approximately 40 Mt capacity of such transitions have already been announced by 2035, which would lower global emissions by as much as 60 MtCO<sub>2</sub>.</li> </ul></div></div></div><div class="StoryContainer_mck-c-story-container__content-media__o8N4Z StoryContainer_mck-c-story-container__container-sticky__EK8hB StoryContainer_mck-c-story-container__container-sticky--extra-spacing__uDmVE mdc-u-grid-col-md-span-8"><div class=""><picture data-component="mdc-c-picture" class="Exhibit_mck-c-exhibit__image__pyIDm"><source media="(min-width: 768px)" srcSet="/~/media/mckinsey/industries/energy%20and%20materials/our%20insights/global%20materials%20perspective%202024/svgz-gmp-2024_ex09-v20.svgz?cq=50&cpy=Center"/><img alt="Total CO2 emissions of the metals and minerals sector is projected to decline by approximately 15 percent by 2035." src="/~/media/mckinsey/industries/energy%20and%20materials/our%20insights/global%20materials%20perspective%202024/svgz-gmp-2024_ex09-v20.svgz?cq=50&cpy=Center" loading="lazy"/></picture></div><div class="mck-u-sr-only"></div></div></div></div></div><div data-component="mdc-c-module-wrapper" data-module-theme="light" data-module-background="white" data-module-category="" class="StoryContainer_mck-c-story-container__item__YhXnX"><div class="mck-o-container"><div class="mck-o-container--wrapped mck-o-container--mobile-spacing mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-col-md-12 StoryContainer_mck-c-story-container__content-item__fg74z"><div data-component="mdc-c-content-block" class="mdc-c-content-block___7p6Lu_80caed7 mdc-u-grid-gutter-md StoryContainer_mck-c-story-container__content-text__DEQ4O StoryContainer_mck-c-story-container__container-sticky__EK8hB StoryContainer_mck-c-story-container__container-sticky--extra-spacing__uDmVE mdc-u-grid-col-md-span-4"><h2 data-component="mdc-c-heading" class="mdc-c-heading___0fM1W_80caed7 mdc-u-ts-5"><div>Research shows less than 15 percent of customers indicate a willingness to pay premiums of around 10 percent for low-carbon materials</div></h2><div data-component="mdc-c-description" class="mdc-c-description___SrnQP_80caed7 mdc-u-ts-8 mck-u-links-inline"><div><p><strong>However, regulatory measures could change the outlook</strong></p> <p>Our recent survey with leading industry players shows a limited willingness to pay for greener materials. In fact, less than 15 percent of surveyed decision makers indicate they would be willing to pay a premium of around 10 percent if there was a scarcity of green materials by 2030.</p> <p>However, increasing publicly announced measures, such as the EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) and Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), could significantly change this outlook by imposing higher costs on companies based on their carbon emissions. In response, companies might seek to either switch to sourcing low carbon footprint materials or invest in innovative solutions to reduce process emissions.</p></div></div></div><div class="StoryContainer_mck-c-story-container__content-media__o8N4Z StoryContainer_mck-c-story-container__container-sticky__EK8hB StoryContainer_mck-c-story-container__container-sticky--extra-spacing__uDmVE mdc-u-grid-col-md-span-8"><div class=""><picture data-component="mdc-c-picture" class="Exhibit_mck-c-exhibit__image__pyIDm"><source media="(min-width: 768px)" srcSet="/~/media/mckinsey/industries/energy%20and%20materials/our%20insights/global%20materials%20perspective%202024/svgz-gmp-2024_ex10-v20.svgz?cq=50&cpy=Center"/><img alt="Less than 15 percent of customers indicate a willingness-to-pay of about 10 percent for low-carbon materials." src="/~/media/mckinsey/industries/energy%20and%20materials/our%20insights/global%20materials%20perspective%202024/svgz-gmp-2024_ex10-v20.svgz?cq=50&cpy=Center" loading="lazy"/></picture></div><div class="mck-u-sr-only"></div></div></div></div></div></div> </div><div class="container-placeholder"></div></div></div></main></div></div></main></div><script id="__NEXT_DATA__" type="application/json">{"props":{"pageProps":{"locale":"en","dictionary":{},"sitecoreContext":{"route":{"name":"Global Materials Perspective","displayName":"Global Materials Perspective 2024","fields":null,"databaseName":"web","deviceId":"fe5d7fdf-89c0-4d99-9aa3-b5fbd009c9f3","itemId":"cffd40db-8285-4662-bd47-fd157502a9a8","itemLanguage":"en","itemVersion":1,"layoutId":"ae753eb4-a035-40b4-83bf-4b4438df6742","templateId":"683910db-02ba-40ba-92e7-726c880160a9","templateName":"ArticleJSS","placeholders":{"jss-main":[{"uid":"232bb7e9-289f-492d-a916-2b6185e44a84","componentName":"ArticleTemplate","dataSource":"","fields":{"data":{"articleTemplate":{"title":{"jsonValue":{"value":"Global Materials Perspective 2024"}},"sEOTitle":{"value":""},"description":{"jsonValue":{"value":"As the energy transition continues apace, the global materials supply is adapting. Our Global Materials Perspective 2024 presents a data-driven view of the road ahead."}},"sEODescription":{"value":""},"displayDate":{"jsonValue":{"value":"2024-09-17T00:00:00Z"}},"body":{"value":"[[audio 1]]\n[[DownloadsSidebar]]\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eThe global metals and mining industry\u003c/strong\u003e is entering a new era. Historically, the industry has been driven by economic growth and the development of the middle class, resulting in major demand growth for materials such as steel, aluminum, and coal. While 80 percent of the industry today primarily consists of five materials\u0026mdash;steel, coal, gold, copper, and aluminum\u0026mdash;the landscape is rapidly changing as a result of the energy transition.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eIndeed, the energy transition is first and foremost a physical transformation and the key challenges are therefore mostly physical, including the timely availability of materials embedded in low-carbon technologies (as detailed in McKinsey Global Institute\u0026rsquo;s 2024 report, \u003ca href=\"/mgi/our-research/the-hard-stuff-navigating-the-physical-realities-of-the-energy-transition\"\u003e\u003cem\u003eThe hard stuff: Navigating the physical realities of the energy transition\u003c/em\u003e\u003c/a\u003e). The energy transition is changing the materials landscape in three ways:\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cul\u003e\n \u003cli\u003eIt accelerates demand growth for materials that are embedded in low-carbon technologies as these technologies typically require more embedded materials than their conventional counterparts. For example, battery electric vehicles (BEVs) are typically 15 to 20 percent heavier than comparable internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles.\u003c/li\u003e\n \u003cli\u003eIt triggers a long-term shift of the materials demand profile as low-carbon technologies require a different set of energy transition materials, which is gradually increasing the relative importance of these materials in the overall metals and mining portfolio.\u003c/li\u003e\n \u003cli\u003eIt drives a long-term reduction of thermal coal in the energy system, currently the second largest material in metals and mining measured by revenue (2023).\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003c/ul\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eKey materials for the energy transition are crucial to achieve decarbonization in the global energy system\u0026mdash;and a lack of sufficient and affordable supply would therefore risk hindering the at-speed deployment of crucial low-carbon technologies. This report aims to provide a fact base and perspective on the need to scale these materials sustainably and affordably. We present a view of the possible road ahead, based on data from approved, publicly available sources, checking this view against three energy transition scenarios differentiated by the speed of the transition as well as two supply scenarios modeled by McKinsey Metal\u0026amp;MineSpans and based on asset level insights.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe road ahead will inevitably bring challenges, including how to accelerate the scaling of supply to meet new demand patterns, how to keep materials affordable so they can continue to support the energy transition and fuel economic growth, and how to improve the sustainability of the industry. This is not simple, especially in the context of an evolving global policy landscape that further increases uncertainty for investors.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eHowever, we are hopeful that the industry\u0026rsquo;s response to the energy transition also presents substantial business opportunities for incumbents and new entrants alike, whether from conscious portfolio shifts, disruptive innovation, new business models, or the next wave of operational and capital expenditure (capex) advances, in some cases enabled by AI.\u003c/p\u003e\n[[disruptor1up sust]]\n[[story 1]]\n[[ceros 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volatility in energy prices, among other factors. While the industry has experienced previous cycles of boom and bust, these recent fluctuations are unprecedented in scale.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eDespite the challenges, the materials industry has shown strong financial results over the past few years when compared with historical averages. Revenues grew by approximately $2.4 trillion (more than 40 percent) from 2020 to 2023, primarily driven by metals and mining, which grew by $1.7 trillion (an increase of approximately 75 percent). During the same period, EBITDA in metals and mining nearly doubled, increasing from $500 billion to $900 billion.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eOverall, balance sheets are healthy, with net debt over EBITDA ratios of 1.3 times\u0026mdash;well below the through-cycle average of 1.8 times\u0026mdash;providing companies with more investment capacity.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eHowever, 2024 is projected to be a more challenging year for the industry as overall economic growth slows down and the shift toward low-carbon technologies unfolds more slowly than expected, both of which are putting downward pressure on price levels, especially for battery materials such as nickel and lithium.\u003c/p\u003e"},"exhibitImage":{"src":"/~/media/mckinsey/industries/energy and materials/our insights/global materials perspective 2024/svgz-gmp-2024_ex01-v21.svgz","alt":"The materials industry has grown by 6 percent per annum since 2000, toward and industry of about $8 trillion in 2023.","description":""},"scaleToFit":{"boolValue":false},"footnotes":{"value":""},"backgroundTheme":{"targetItem":{"key":{"value":"Gray"},"value":{"value":"-bg-lightest-grey"}}},"mediaPlacement":{"targetItem":{"key":{"value":"Right"},"value":{"value":"is-align-right"}}},"eyebrow":{"value":""},"displayNumber":{"value":""}},{"id":"113F4F409B1A4C8FAF5576EF24F14A55","name":"Exhibit for Story 2","template":{"name":"StoryItem"},"title":{"value":"In metals and mining, around 80 percent of revenues stem from just five materials"},"description":{"value":"\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eSteel, thermal coal, copper, gold, and aluminum dominate the sector\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe $4 trillion metals and mining industry is largely composed of just five materials: steel (including iron ore and metallurgical coal), thermal coal, copper, gold, and aluminum. Of these, thermal coal and steel account for approximately 60 to 70 percent of revenues, with production volumes more than 30 times higher than all other materials combined. Gold, copper, and aluminum make up another 15 to 20 percent.[[footnote 1]]\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eOther materials often associated with the energy transition, such as battery and magnet materials, remain small in terms of revenue but are growing in sync with the shift toward low-carbon technologies.\u003c/p\u003e"},"exhibitImage":{"src":"/~/media/mckinsey/industries/energy and materials/our insights/global materials perspective 2024/svgz-gmp-2024_ex02-v20.svgz","alt":"The top five material value chains make up approximately 80 percent to 90 percent of metals and mining revenues.","description":""},"scaleToFit":{"boolValue":false},"footnotes":{"value":"\u003col\u003e\n \u003cli\u003eThermal coal at approximately 7,000 megatons (Mt) and steel at approximately 2,000 Mt. Remaining materials are in the order of magnitude of 200 to 300 Mt, with aluminum being the third largest by volume at around 100 Mt.\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003c/ol\u003e"},"backgroundTheme":{"targetItem":{"key":{"value":"White"},"value":{"value":"-bg-white"}}},"mediaPlacement":{"targetItem":{"key":{"value":"Right"},"value":{"value":"is-align-right"}}},"eyebrow":{"value":""},"displayNumber":{"value":""}},{"id":"44838C30F2EB44DEADB6417E9A78FADF","name":"Exhibit for Story 3","template":{"name":"StoryItem"},"title":{"value":"Supply is scaling faster than expected for several materials key to the transition"},"description":{"value":"\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eLithium and nickel are ramping up faster, while copper lags behind\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eComparing Metal\u0026amp;MineSpans\u0026rsquo; first quarter 2020 projection for announced supply with actual production in 2023 shows that production for lithium and nickel was underestimated by nearly 20 percent.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eFor lithium, the difference is driven by assets funded by Australian and US investors coming online faster than expected, as well as an unanticipated scale-up of lepidolite assets in China in response to elevated lithium prices. And for nickel, the ramp-up stems almost solely from integrated high-pressure acid leach (HPAL) laterite assets in Indonesia. This accelerated supply buildup\u0026mdash;in combination with a slowdown in electric vehicle (EV) sales\u0026mdash;partly explains recent downward price corrections and why some projects have been called back.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eBy contrast, copper supply lags projections not only because of expected projects not coming online but also because several assets decreased production faster than anticipated.\u003c/p\u003e"},"exhibitImage":{"src":"/~/media/mckinsey/industries/energy and materials/our insights/global materials perspective 2024/svgz-gmp-2024_ex04-v20.svgz","alt":"Mined lithium and nickel supply over the past years has seen a higher-than-expected growth, while copper is falling short.","description":""},"scaleToFit":{"boolValue":false},"footnotes":{"value":""},"backgroundTheme":{"targetItem":{"key":{"value":"Gray"},"value":{"value":"-bg-lightest-grey"}}},"mediaPlacement":{"targetItem":{"key":{"value":"Right"},"value":{"value":"is-align-right"}}},"eyebrow":{"value":""},"displayNumber":{"value":""}},{"id":"09EC89BC2F4C4DACBFA98631ECDE79BE","name":"Exhibit for Story 4","template":{"name":"StoryItem"},"title":{"value":"Accelerated technological innovation is creating increasing uncertainty for demand outlooks"},"description":{"value":"\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eOEMs in automotive are rapidly shifting toward alternative technologies\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAs supply has scaled up faster than expected for some materials, demand patterns have adjusted in response to anticipated supply shortages.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eFor example, the chemistry mix for batteries used in EVs is increasingly moving away from nickel-manganese-cobalt (NMC) to lithium-iron-phosphate (LFP). As another example, the share of leading OEMs stating they would shift toward electric motors that are less reliant on REEs increased from 30 percent in 2022 to 40 percent in 2023.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThese trends, however, are not consistent across materials. For instance, the move from iridium-intensive electrolyzers in anticipation of a potential iridium shortage is not yet apparent. This could be partially explained by the fact that hydrogen developers may still have flexibility to change electrolyzer designs at a later stage in the project development cycle.\u003c/p\u003e"},"exhibitImage":{"src":"/~/media/mckinsey/industries/energy and materials/our insights/global materials perspective 2024/svgz-gmp-2024_ex05-v20.svgz","alt":"Demand patterns are adjusting given anticipated supply shortages.","description":""},"scaleToFit":{"boolValue":false},"footnotes":{"value":""},"backgroundTheme":{"targetItem":{"key":{"value":"White"},"value":{"value":"-bg-white"}}},"mediaPlacement":{"targetItem":{"key":{"value":"Right"},"value":{"value":"is-align-right"}}},"eyebrow":{"value":""},"displayNumber":{"value":""}},{"id":"0E9BB258F7844A67A1C067318E9EE0D4","name":"Exhibit for Story 5","template":{"name":"StoryItem"},"title":{"value":"Demand projections remain strong, with the majority of materials outpacing absolute historical growth"},"description":{"value":"\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eThe highest relative growth will come from copper and lithium\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eDemand projections remain strong from now until 2035. In fact, except for steel and thermal coal, demand is expected to outpace absolute historical growth in the coming decade compared with the previous decade for all materials considered in this report, with lithium and copper in particular standing out.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eNickel and rare earth elements (REEs) are also projected to grow faster than in the previous decade, yet outlooks for both have been adjusted downward over the past nine months as demand from the automotive sector is shifting away from high-nickel batteries and REE-intensive electric-vehicle motors.\u003c/p\u003e"},"exhibitImage":{"src":"/~/media/mckinsey/industries/energy and materials/our insights/global materials perspective 2024/svgz-gmp-2024_ex03-v20.svgz","alt":"Demand outlook in 2023 remains strong, outpacing historical pace, notably for lithium (+475 percent), nickel (+60 percent), and copper (+30 percent).","description":""},"scaleToFit":{"boolValue":false},"footnotes":{"value":""},"backgroundTheme":{"targetItem":{"key":{"value":"Gray"},"value":{"value":"-bg-lightest-grey"}}},"mediaPlacement":{"targetItem":{"key":{"value":"Right"},"value":{"value":"is-align-right"}}},"eyebrow":{"value":""},"displayNumber":{"value":""}},{"id":"CFBC5933AB6B401AA0A829FC51675BAC","name":"Exhibit for Story 6","template":{"name":"StoryItem"},"title":{"value":"Expected supply-demand in 2035 is more balanced compared with our 2023 perspective, but shortages are still anticipated for several materials"},"description":{"value":"\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eREEs, lithium, sulfur, uranium, iridium, and copper may face shortages\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eRecent changes in supply and demand have altered the projected supply\u0026ndash;demand gap, especially after 2030. In the past 24 months, both nickel and cobalt have moved from expected undersupply to oversupply, as an example.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThat said, shortages are still anticipated for several materials key to the energy transition, in particular REEs, lithium, sulfur, uranium, iridium, and copper.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eFor materials where timelines for project development are fairly limited (in some cases less than five years), the supply\u0026ndash;demand gap is likely to close by further scaling up supply once demand signals become strong enough. This is the case for uranium, for which scaling challenges depend mainly on the uncertain future of nuclear power as opposed to the scarcity of reserves or a sufficient number of potential projects. A similar example is seen in lithium, where reserves are abundant and mines have relatively short development timelines.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eFor other materials, the supply\u0026ndash;demand gap is less likely to close through the accelerated scale-up of supply because of long project timelines or limited high-quality reserves and projects. In such cases, given that supply and demand must match, demand adaptation or reduction is expected to take place to balance the market. The most notable example in this category is copper.\u003c/p\u003e"},"exhibitImage":{"src":"/~/media/mckinsey/industries/energy and materials/our insights/global materials perspective 2024/svgz-gmp-2024_ex06-v20.svgz","alt":"Changes in supply and demand have led to a more balanced outlook, but supply shortage is still anticipated for several materials.","description":""},"scaleToFit":{"boolValue":false},"footnotes":{"value":""},"backgroundTheme":{"targetItem":{"key":{"value":"White"},"value":{"value":"-bg-white"}}},"mediaPlacement":{"targetItem":{"key":{"value":"Right"},"value":{"value":"is-align-right"}}},"eyebrow":{"value":""},"displayNumber":{"value":""}},{"id":"B0265CD9BF2E4FD6BBFB941A9189FBE2","name":"Exhibit for Story 7","template":{"name":"StoryItem"},"title":{"value":"As much as $5.4 trillion in capex and 270 gigawatts of power is needed by 2035 to scale up supply to meet expected demand"},"description":{"value":"\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eA third of a million new jobs may also be needed, as well as infrastructure build-out\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eScaling up will be challenging. Meeting projected demand will require an efficient and timely deployment of investments, energy, and logistics infrastructure and equipment, as well as the proper capabilities and steady freshwater availability.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cul\u003e\n \u003cli\u003e\u003cem\u003eCapex:\u003c/em\u003e On a global level, $5.4 trillion[[footnote 1]] is needed for supply to match current demand outlooks by 2035, an approximate 10 percent increase compared with the previous decade.\u003c/li\u003e\n \u003cli\u003e\u003cem\u003eEnergy:\u003c/em\u003e As much as 270 GW power is needed (with another 1,100 GW needed to decarbonize) by 2035. That said, the power required, although significant, does not constitute more than 3 percent of projected demand for renewables in 2035.\u003c/li\u003e\n \u003cli\u003e\u003cem\u003eLabor:\u003c/em\u003e 340,000 new jobs globally could be needed in the industry to scale supply, while 1.25 million jobs are at risk in the thermal coal industry.\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003c/ul\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eLocal challenges regarding skilled labor, steady energy supply, water availability, logistics infrastructure, and equipment supply may hinder deployment, alongside project affordability.\u003c/p\u003e"},"exhibitImage":{"src":"/~/media/mckinsey/industries/energy and materials/our insights/global materials perspective 2024/svgz-gmp-2024_ex07-v20.svgz","alt":"$5.4 trillion and 270 gigawatts of power are needed to scale up supply to meet expected demand, but this scale up puts coal jobs at risk.","description":""},"scaleToFit":{"boolValue":false},"footnotes":{"value":"\u003col\u003e\n \u003cli\u003eCapex covers exploration, sustaining existing projects, and new projects for both mining and refining.\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003c/ol\u003e"},"backgroundTheme":{"targetItem":{"key":{"value":"Gray"},"value":{"value":"-bg-lightest-grey"}}},"mediaPlacement":{"targetItem":{"key":{"value":"Right"},"value":{"value":"is-align-right"}}},"eyebrow":{"value":""},"displayNumber":{"value":""}},{"id":"9F9DCE650DD247119D9D6883639307E3","name":"Exhibit for Story 8","template":{"name":"StoryItem"},"title":{"value":"Price increases will likely be required to incentivize sufficient supply to come online"},"description":{"value":"\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eCurrent copper prices will need to increase by 20 percent to drive sufficient supply\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eSince 2022, lithium prices have dropped by approximately 80 percent to $14,500 per ton lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE) and prices for nickel have dropped by approximately 20 percent to $20,000 per ton.[[footnote 1]] These decreases represent a \u0026ldquo;normalization\u0026rdquo; rather than a drastic shift in industry dynamics, as prices moved closer to typical production costs.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eTo incentivize sufficient supply, nickel prices would need to increase by around $1,000 per ton, a 5 percent increase, assuming that the most economical projects would be prioritized and delivered on time. For lithium and copper, the pipeline of announced projects is smaller, and the demand increase is higher. Therefore, a higher price increase would be needed to incentivize sufficient supply to meet demand. For copper, an approximate 20 percent increase from current prices would be needed, and for lithium, the approximate required price increase is 30 percent, provided all announced projects come online.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eHowever, history has shown that the most economical projects are not always the first to be realized, given the range of barriers aside from profitability that can impact project execution, such as permitting delays. Moreover, individual projects may also have different required rates of return to be approved by owners and investors, which would in turn mean different levels of required incentive prices.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAll in all, if some of the more profitable projects were not to advance\u0026mdash;whether due to barriers or higher return rates required\u0026mdash;a further price increase would be needed to bring new supply online.\u003c/p\u003e"},"exhibitImage":{"src":"/~/media/mckinsey/industries/energy and materials/our insights/global materials perspective 2024/svgz-gmp-2024_ex08-v20.svgz","alt":"Prices would have to further increase across materials to incentivize sufficient supply to come online to meet demand.","description":""},"scaleToFit":{"boolValue":false},"footnotes":{"value":"\u003col\u003e\n \u003cli\u003eComparing the annual average price of 2022 with year-to-date prices in May 2024.\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003c/ol\u003e"},"backgroundTheme":{"targetItem":{"key":{"value":"White"},"value":{"value":"-bg-white"}}},"mediaPlacement":{"targetItem":{"key":{"value":"Right"},"value":{"value":"is-align-right"}}},"eyebrow":{"value":""},"displayNumber":{"value":""}},{"id":"D27AF1F8922A4547A79C2EC2B82DDC83","name":"Exhibit for Story 9","template":{"name":"StoryItem"},"title":{"value":"Over the next decade, total metal and mining emissions are estimated to decrease by a modest 15 percent"},"description":{"value":"\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eThe metals and mining industry could contribute 13 percent of global emissions in 2035\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eIn 2023, total production emissions from the metals and mining industry accounted for approximately 15 percent of global emissions. Assuming no external shifts, the share is estimated to decrease to approximately 13 percent by 2035\u0026mdash;a 15 percent decline.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThis decrease in emissions is driven by the net effect of several factors:\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cul\u003e\n \u003cli\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eChanges in demand:\u003c/strong\u003e Net impact from decreasing emissions from thermal coal production, offset by increasing emissions from other materials that will see demand growth.\u003c/li\u003e\n \u003cli\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eGrid decarbonization:\u003c/strong\u003e The global grid is projected to decarbonize by close to 50 percent as the share of renewable energy increases, reducing emissions for those assets that are reliant on grid power for their operations.[[footnote 1]]\u003c/li\u003e\n \u003cli\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eImproved circularity:\u003c/strong\u003e The share of recycled materials, which have a lower carbon footprint, will increase, driven by the higher availability of scrap and improved collection and recovery rates.\u003c/li\u003e\n \u003cli\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eEfficiency improvements:\u003c/strong\u003e Continued efficiency improvements estimated at 0.5 percentage point per annum.\u003c/li\u003e\n \u003cli\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eAnnounced net-zero production:\u003c/strong\u003e In addition to incremental decarbonization, there have been several announcements of asset-level transitions toward new technologies. In steel alone, approximately 40 Mt capacity of such transitions have already been announced by 2035, which would lower global emissions by as much as 60 MtCO\u003csub\u003e2\u003c/sub\u003e.\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003c/ul\u003e"},"exhibitImage":{"src":"/~/media/mckinsey/industries/energy and materials/our insights/global materials perspective 2024/svgz-gmp-2024_ex09-v20.svgz","alt":"Total CO2 emissions of the metals and minerals sector is projected to decline by approximately 15 percent by 2035.","description":""},"scaleToFit":{"boolValue":false},"footnotes":{"value":"\u003col\u003e\n \u003cli\u003e\u003ca href=\"/industries/energy-and-materials/our-insights/global-energy-perspective\"\u003e\u003cem\u003eGlobal energy perspective 2024\u003c/em\u003e\u003c/a\u003e, McKinsey, September, 2024.\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003c/ol\u003e"},"backgroundTheme":{"targetItem":{"key":{"value":"Gray"},"value":{"value":"-bg-lightest-grey"}}},"mediaPlacement":{"targetItem":{"key":{"value":"Right"},"value":{"value":"is-align-right"}}},"eyebrow":{"value":""},"displayNumber":{"value":""}},{"id":"8508F3C99E064CC4B5FB1B03EF44581D","name":"Exhibit for Story 10","template":{"name":"StoryItem"},"title":{"value":"Research shows less than 15 percent of customers indicate a willingness to pay premiums of around 10 percent for low-carbon materials"},"description":{"value":"\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eHowever, regulatory measures could change the outlook\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eOur recent survey with leading industry players shows a limited willingness to pay for greener materials. 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