黎以停火协议能否得到严格执行仍存不确定性|以色列|政府军

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href="#post_comment_area" title="快速发贴"></a> <a class="post_top_tie_count js-tielink js-tiejoincount" href="#" title="点击查看跟贴">0</a> </div> <div class="post_top_share"> <span class="post_top_share_title">分享至</span> <ul class="post_share"> <li class="share_weixin js_weixin"> <a href="javascript:;" target="_self"><i title="分享到微信"></i></a> </li> <li class="share_weibo js_share" data-type="weibo"> <a href="javascript:;" target="_self"><i title="分享到新浪微博"></i></a> </li> <li class="share_qzone js_share" data-type="qzone"> <a href="javascript:;" target="_self"><i title="分享到QQ空间"></i></a> </li> </ul> <div class="js_qrcode_wrap hidden" id="js_qrcode_top"> <div class="js_qrcode_arr"></div> <a href="javascript:;" target="_self" class="js_qrcode_close" title="关闭"></a> <div class="js_qrcode_img js_share_qrcode"></div> <p>用微信扫码二维码</p> <p>分享至好友和朋友圈</p> </div> </div> </div> <div class="post_body"> <p id="3705IIUV"> 来源：央视新闻客户端</p><p id="3705IIV0">本轮黎以冲突爆发一年多之后，以色列安全内阁批准了以色列与黎巴嫩真主党的停火协议。停火协议能否真的落实？</p><p id="3705IIV1"><strong>停火协议能否得到严格执行仍存不确定性</strong></p><p id="3705IIV2"><strong>中国现代国际关系研究院中东研究所副所长秦天：</strong>现在黎以停火已经达成了，外界主要关注的重点已经转到这份停火协议能不能得到有效、严格的落实和执行。这方面恰恰历史上是有过教训的。在2006年黎以冲突之后，当时在联合国的主持下，就通过了双方停火停战的1701号决议，该决议的内容实际上和这一次黎以60天停火的协议内容，它的本质是相似的，但是当时的1701号决议就没有得到有力的执行。现在来看的话，我觉得新的这份停火协议它也存在着得不到执行或者得不到完全执行的风险。</p><p id="3705IIV3"><strong>以色列未必愿意放弃在黎南部的已有战果</strong></p><p class="f_center"><img src="https://nimg.ws.126.net/?url=http%3A%2F%2Fdingyue.ws.126.net%2F2024%2F1127%2Fa90a31fcj00snllc00037d001hc00u0g.jpg&thumbnail=660x2147483647&quality=80&type=jpg"/><br/></p><p id="3705IIV5"><strong>中国现代国际关系研究院中东研究所副所长秦天：</strong>从以色列的角度来看，在过去两个月与黎巴嫩政党作战中，以色列是占据优势的，而且它在黎以临时边境的北部3至5公里，实际上它建立了有效的控制，建立了一个缓冲带、隔离区。在这一次以色列撤军的过程中，它愿不愿意放弃3至5公里已经控制的地区，我觉得要打上一个问号。</p><p id="3705IIV6">从黎巴嫩政府军的角度来说，因为这一次的临时协议里规定了由政府军进驻黎巴嫩南部，来将真主党与以色列这两个敌对方隔开。但是政府军在黎巴嫩国内，相对来说，它所拥有的资源、人力、规模、权威都是有限的，它能不能起到执行协议的作用，我觉得这个也要打上问号。从黎真主党的角度来说，无论是从最近两个月战场上的表现，还是从这次停火协议，规定了真主党要退到利塔尼河以北这一点来看，实际上真主党承受了比较大的损失，其内心并不愿意吞下这个苦果。</p><p id="3705IIV7"><strong>停火对中东整体局势起到一定的降温作用</strong></p><p class="f_center"><img src="https://nimg.ws.126.net/?url=http%3A%2F%2Fdingyue.ws.126.net%2F2024%2F1127%2Fbb434a3dj00snllc0004nd001hc00u0g.jpg&thumbnail=660x2147483647&quality=80&type=jpg"/><br/></p><p id="3705IIV9"><strong>中国现代国际关系研究院中东研究所副所长秦天：</strong>未来，黎真主党会不会还找机会去袭扰以色列或者反击以色列？我觉得这个也是有比较大的变数。以上这些方面，我觉得他们都会审时度势，根据具体的情况的变化来改变他们的政策，这就给协议的执行增添了很多的变数。<strong>除了黎以停火本身的不确定之外，这次的停火协议本身还是对整个地区的紧张局势产生了一定的降温或者缓和的作用。</strong></p><p id="3705IIVA">过去两个月来，在有关巴以冲突的这种各条战线中，实际上黎以这条战线是打得最激烈，打得最惨烈的。黎巴嫩真主党其实也是与以色列之间较量的抵抗阵线中一个领头的力量。随着黎以之间停火的达成，我觉得未来整个抵抗阵线与以色列对峙斗争的烈度可能会出现一定的下滑。另外，黎真主党背后其实还有伊朗，伊朗在最近几个月与以色列的对战在升级，其中有一部分的原因就是伊朗要为真主党报仇，要为真主党出口气。</p><p class="f_center"><img src="https://nimg.ws.126.net/?url=http%3A%2F%2Fdingyue.ws.126.net%2F2024%2F1127%2F32433bc0j00snllc00061d001hc00u0g.jpg&thumbnail=660x2147483647&quality=80&type=jpg"/><br/></p><p id="3705IIVC"><strong>中国现代国际关系研究院中东研究所副所长秦天：</strong>随着黎以停火的达成，伊以之间的这种紧张对峙也有望得到一定的缓解。至于在加沙的冲突，我觉得相对来说它和黎以战场之间相对有一些独立性。加沙的情况更加复杂，哈马斯手中还有一些以色列的人质，像卡塔尔在最近也实质性地退出了加沙停火谈判的斡旋。从这个角度来讲，我觉得这次黎以停火可能对加沙的停火起不到直接的推动作用。</p> </div> <div class="post_statement"> <span class="bg"></span> <p>特别声明：以上内容(如有图片或视频亦包括在内)为自媒体平台“网易号”用户上传并发布，本平台仅提供信息存储服务。</p> <p>Notice: The content above (including the pictures and videos if any) is uploaded and posted by a user of NetEase Hao, which is a social media platform and only provides information storage services.</p> </div>  <link rel="stylesheet" href="https://static.ws.126.net/163/f2e/tie-sdk/tie-2020-11b4ffc1a813dfcc799e.css"> <script> var loadMessageError2 = function () { // message加载失败降级到nginx,产品可以在load事件重新初始化 var cdnPath = 'https://dl.reg.163.com/webzj/ngx/message.js'; var script = document.createElement('script'); script.src = cdnPath; document.body.appendChild(script); } var loadMessageError1 = function () { // message加载失败降级备份cdn域名,产品可以在load事件重新初始化 var cdnPath 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