Mysteel：7月天津钢绞线市场回顾与展望-我的钢铁网

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<p>以天津市场15.2mm1860MPa规格钢绞线为例。首先从图中来看，由于原料价格下跌，7月份钢绞线价格弱势下行，利好未促进预应力制品下游的需求。具体来看，6月底钢厂检修结束，7月天津市场原料供应量增加。在原料和生产成本的支撑，价格小幅下跌；7月份由于黑色系期货下跌原料价格跟跌，钢绞线市场价格一直跟随其后。叠加天气环境影响，下游项目有停工计划，需求没有较大起色，且受终端项目资金问题影响，各厂家生产意愿降低，钢绞线成品库存偏低。</p> <p>二、季节性影响，需求释放缓慢。</p> <p><img style="width: 600px; height: 445.893px;" src="//img06.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2024/07/31/aac91cf0f623449384dcd8ef91041f71.png" width="600" height="445" /></p> <p>如图全国250家<a href='https://m.100njz.com/market/p-968-----1001-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>水泥</a>生产企业周度出库量，2023年自2月份开始出库量呈上涨走势，2023年自4月份开始一直处于出库量逐渐增加的走势；2024年度，第二多地受雨水影响，叠加气温升高，水泥出库量受到较大冲击，预计8月份雨水减少，部分施工企业恢复施工，水泥需求量会得到提升。</p> <p>三、南北价差收窄，北材南下受阻。</p> <p><img style="width: 600px; height: 354.513px;" src="//img02.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2024/07/31/0ff60362b8464a808e13e3d0b9c33309.png" width="600" height="354" /></p> <p align="justify">如图所示：自2024年以来，南北价差呈逐渐收窄。由此表我们可以看出：春节前后，焦煤、焦炭价格下行，黑色金属走低，市场供需矛盾导致价格下跌，截止7月下旬，由于台风天气影响，市场需求恢复速度放缓，基建开工数目减少，施工运输难度加大，生产厂家为适应环境变化，优化生产结构。但市场价格已开始弱势下行，回调周期延长。</p> <p align="justify">供应端：截止7月底，钢绞线原料供应压力较大，自7月中旬钢厂复产后压力逐渐增大。成品端供应方面，优化生产结构后，一直处于低库存状态。据<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>Mysteel</a>调研显示，近期钢绞线厂家生产积极性偏低，钢绞线供应端产量或仍将处于低库存模式。</p> <p align="justify">需求端：下游基建项目、房建项目短期内仍处于弱势阶段，预计第三第四季度随着市场宏观政策发布，市场情绪回暖，钢绞线需求将逐步恢复。</p> <p>宏观政策方面：美联储降息预期提升，国内货币政策将会出台应对弱预期的方案，或有利于改善现阶段下游资金情况；钢绞线生产厂家方面，下游需求偏弱是影响天津钢绞线成品价格下行的主要因素，优化生产结构后产销处于弱平衡状态，短期内价格仍将承压运行；8月依旧要合理生产结构，应对市场将会发生的未知变化，下游方面关注路桥项目，同时优化库存管理，根据市场需求及价格的变化，合理调整库存水平；综上所述，预计8月天津钢绞线价格弱势下行。</p>  <br /> </div> </div> </article> <article class="content-block m-copyRight"> 资讯编辑：刘奕 021-26094368 </br> 资讯监督：毛宏伟 021-26093365 </br> 资讯投诉：陈杰 021-26093100 </br> </article> <article class="content-block m-copyRight h-statement"> <p 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