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Wells</div> <div id="sub-popup"> <div class="close"><a href="#">Close</a></div> <h3>Receive our posts via email:</h3> <form action="https://departmentofstatistics.activehosted.com/proc.php" method="post"> <p><label for="email">Your email:</label><span class="input"><input name="email" id="email" class="text" type="text" /></span><span class="clear"></span></p> <p class="submit"><input type="submit" value="Subscribe" /></p> <div style="display:none;"> <input type="hidden" name="u" value="3" /> <input type="hidden" name="f" value="3" /> <input type="hidden" name="s" /> <input type="hidden" name="c" value="0" /> <input type="hidden" name="m" value="0" /> <input type="hidden" name="act" value="sub" /> <input type="hidden" name="v" value="2" /> </div> </form> </div> </div> <div id="body"> <div id="main"> <div id="main-a"> <div class="post"> <div class="date">April 28, 2016</div> <h1 class="title">Marking beliefs to market</h1> <div class="author">By <a href="https://www.statschat.org.nz/author/thomas-lumley/" title="Posts by Thomas Lumley" class="author url fn" rel="author">Thomas Lumley</a></div> <div class="content"> <p>Back in August, I <a href="https://www.statschat.org.nz/2015/08/08/sampling-error-and-measurement-error/">wrote</a></p> <blockquote><p><em>Trump’s lead isn’t sampling error. He has an eleven percentage point lead in the poll averages, with sampling error well under one percentage point. That’s better than the National Party has ever managed. It’s better than the Higgs Boson has ever managed.</em></p> <p><em>Even so, no serious commentator thinks Trump will be the Republican candidate. It’s not out of the question that he’d run as an independent — that’s a question of individual psychology, and much harder to answer — but he isn’t going to win the Republican primaries.</em></p></blockquote> <p>Arguably that was true: no serious commentator, as far as I know, did think Trump would be the Republican candidate. But he is going to win the Republican primaries, and the opinion polls haven’t been all that badly wrong about him — better than the experts.</p> <div class="clear"></div> </div> <div class="addthis_toolbox addthis_default_style " addthis:title="Marking beliefs to market" addthis:url="https://www.statschat.org.nz/2016/04/28/marking-beliefs-to-market/"> <a class="addthis_button_facebook_like" fb:like:layout="button_count" style="opacity:1;"></a> <a class="addthis_button_tweet" tw:via=""></a> </div> <div class="bio"> <div class="bio-image"><a href="https://www.statschat.org.nz/author/thomas-lumley/"><img src='/avatars/thomaslumley.jpg' class='avatar avatar-50 avatar-default' height='50' width='50' style='width: 50px; height: 50px;' alt='avatar' /></a></div> <div class="bio-right"> <p><a href="http://www.stat.auckland.ac.nz/showperson?firstname=Thomas&surname=Lumley">Thomas Lumley</a> (@tslumley) is Professor of Biostatistics at the University of Auckland. His research interests include semiparametric models, survey sampling, statistical computing, foundations of statistics, and whatever methodological problems his medical collaborators come up with. He also blogs at <a href="http://notstatschat.rbind.io">Biased and Inefficient</a><a href="https://wandering.shop/@tslumley" rel="me"></a> <a href="https://www.statschat.org.nz/author/thomas-lumley/">See all posts by Thomas Lumley »</a></p> </div> <div class="clear"></div> </div> <div class="commentsection" id="comments"> <h3>Comments</h3> <ul class="commentlist"> <li> <div class="comment even thread-even depth-1 comment" id="comment-181796"> <div class="comment-avatar"><img src='https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/7d0dade4c5ee7b3c02c410424728e75a?s=36&d=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.gravatar.com%2Favatar%2Fad516503a11cd5ca435acc9bb6523536%3Fs%3D36&r=G' class='avatar avatar-36 avatar-default' height='36' width='36' style='width: 36px; height: 36px;' alt='avatar' /></div> <div class="comment-right"> <div class="comcontent"> <div class="comauth">steve curtis</div> <p>I didnt realise the Higgs Bosun was just a ‘winner of an election’, and even then only a slight lead over the others</p> <p><a href="https://www.statschat.org.nz/2016/04/28/marking-beliefs-to-market/#comment-181796" class="comment-time">9 years ago</a> </p> </div> </div> <div class="clear"></div> </div> </li> </ul> </div> </div> <div class="navigation"> <div class="navleft"><a href="https://www.statschat.org.nz/2016/04/28/maori-imprisonment-statistics-not-just-age/" rel="prev">« Previous post</a></div> <div class="navright"><a href="https://www.statschat.org.nz/2016/04/28/walkability/" rel="next">Next post »</a></div> <div class="clear"></div> </div> </div> </div> <div id="sidebar"> <div id="search-3" class="section widget_search"><div class="search"> <form method="get" action="https://www.statschat.org.nz"> <div> <div class="text"><input name="s" class="text" type="text" /></div> <input class="submit" type="submit" value="Search" /> </div> </form> </div></div><div id="statschat_related_posts-3" class="section widget_related_posts"><h3 class="sectitle">Related posts</h3><ul> <li><a 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