Tropical Depression TWO

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HOWEVER...THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE CENTER LOCATION ON IR IMAGES...AND THIS PLAYS A MAJOR ROLE IN THE INTENSITY ESTIMATE. THEREFORE IT IS PRUDENT TO WAIT FOR VISIBLE IMAGES...TO CONFIRM THAT THE CENTER IS EMBEDDED IN THE DEEP CONVECTION...BEFORE UPGRADING THE CYCLONE. IN ANY EVENT IT APPEARS THAT THE SYSTEM HAS ABOUT A DAY OR SO BEFORE THE VERTICAL SHEAR INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY. THEREAFTER...STRONG UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC WESTERLIES SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE CYCLONE AND IT MAY EVEN DEGENERATE INTO A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE...280/17...IS ABOUT THE SAME AS IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THERE IS ALSO LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PROGNOSTIC REASONING. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY BEING STEERED BY EASTERLIES ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE...IN PARTICULAR THE NCEP GFS...SHOWS A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH IN THE VICINITY OF 50W LONGITUDE. THIS WEAKNESS IS EXPECTED TO BECOME LESS PRONOUNCED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE UPPER TROUGH DE-AMPLIFIES AND SHIFTS EASTWARD. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS FAIRLY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND SHOWS A TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH DECREASING FORWARD SPEED. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 11/0900Z 9.9N 43.3W 30 KT 12HR VT 11/1800Z 10.3N 45.5W 35 KT 24HR VT 12/0600Z 11.2N 48.3W 35 KT 36HR VT 12/1800Z 12.1N 50.8W 35 KT 48HR VT 13/0600Z 13.0N 53.0W 30 KT 72HR VT 14/0600Z 15.0N 57.5W 30 KT 96HR VT 15/0600Z 16.5N 61.5W 25 KT 120HR VT 16/0600Z 17.5N 64.5W 25 KT NNNN </pre>  <br><br> <div class="footer"> <div class="footer-content"> <div class='footer-header'> Quick Links and Additional Resources<br> </div> <div class='footer-column'> <a class='footer-column-head' href='/cyclones/'>Tropical Cyclone Forecasts</a><br> <a href='/cyclones'>Tropical Cyclone Advisories</a><br> <a href='/gtwo.php'>Tropical Weather Outlook</a><br> <a href='/audio'>Audio/Podcasts</a><br> <a href='/aboutnhcprod.shtml'>About Advisories</a><br> <br> <a class='footer-column-head' href='/marine'>Marine Forecasts</a><br> <a href='/marine/offshores.php'>Offshore Waters Forecasts</a><br> <a href='/marine/grids.php'>Gridded Forecasts</a><br> <a 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Tropical Depression TWO