Mysteel月报：家电行业月报（2024-3）-我的钢铁网

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<p>根据产业在线数据，2024年3月份家用空调排产2213万台，较去年同期实绩增长25.2%；冰箱排产837万台，较去年同期实绩增长8.4%；洗衣机排产644万台，较去年同期生产实绩增长5.4%。3月排产实际正增长，因为在传统的家电生产旺季，企业保持着相对紧张的备货节奏，季度末仍要为开门红做一波冲刺。一季度对全年目标达成很重要，因此厂家排产积极性都比较高。此外春节后厂家陆续开盘劲头很猛，新品发布、各项优惠政策等层出不穷。政策方向上，新召开的中央财经委员会第四次会议强调要推动消费品以旧换新，未来地方政府“以旧换新"的补贴政策陆续落地后，对于白电等传统消费品的市场增长将有很好的促进作用。</p> <p><strong>月度行业产销数据：</strong></p> <p style="text-align: center;"><img style="width: 600px; height: 418.266px;" src="//img03.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2024/03/04/dce2656c898c40fd81f8734cb31bbdeb.png" width="600" height="418" /></p> <p><strong> </strong><strong>一、月度原材料价格监测</strong></p> <table class="MsoNormalTable" style="width: 453pt; margin-left: auto; border-collapse: collapse; float: none; margin-right: auto;" border="0" width="604" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"> <tbody> <tr style="height: 14.25pt;"> <td style="width: 453.0pt; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; background: #023985; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; height: 14.25pt;" colspan="5" width="604"> <p style="text-align: center; margin: 0cm;" align="center"><strong><span style="color: white;">家电制造核心原材料价格行情</span></strong></p> </td> </tr> <tr style="height: 14.25pt;"> <td style="width: 152.0pt; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; background: #023985; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; height: 14.25pt;" width="203"> <p style="text-align: center; margin: 0cm;" align="center"><strong><span style="color: white;">指标名称</span></strong></p> </td> <td style="width: 91.0pt; border-top: none; border-left: none; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; background: #023985; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; height: 14.25pt;" width="121"> <p style="text-align: center; margin: 0cm;" align="center"><strong><span style="color: white;">2024/3/1</span></strong></p> </td> <td style="width: 91.0pt; border-top: none; border-left: none; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; background: #023985; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; height: 14.25pt;" width="121"> <p style="text-align: center; margin: 0cm;" align="center"><strong><span style="color: white;">2024/2/23</span></strong></p> </td> <td style="width: 65.0pt; border-top: none; border-left: none; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; background: #023985; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; height: 14.25pt;" width="87"> <p style="text-align: center; margin: 0cm;" align="center"><strong><span style="color: white;">变化值</span></strong></p> </td> <td style="width: 54.0pt; border-top: none; border-left: none; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; background: #023985; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; height: 14.25pt;" width="72"> <p style="text-align: center; margin: 0cm;" align="center"><strong><span style="color: white;">周环比</span></strong></p> </td> </tr> <tr style="height: 14.25pt;"> <td style="width: 152.0pt; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; height: 14.25pt;" width="203"> <p style="text-align: center; margin: 0cm;" align="center"><span style="color: black;"><a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-968-----010104-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>冷轧</a></span></p> </td> <td style="width: 91.0pt; border-top: none; border-left: none; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; height: 14.25pt;" width="121"> <p style="text-align: center; margin: 0cm;" align="center"><span style="color: black;">4709</span></p> </td> <td style="width: 91.0pt; border-top: none; border-left: none; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; height: 14.25pt;" width="121"> <p style="text-align: center; margin: 0cm;" align="center"><span style="color: black;">4733</span></p> </td> <td style="width: 65.0pt; border-top: none; border-left: none; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; height: 14.25pt;" width="87"> <p style="text-align: center; margin: 0cm;" align="center"><span style="color: #00b050;">-24</span></p> </td> <td style="width: 54.0pt; border-top: none; border-left: none; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; height: 14.25pt;" width="72"> <p style="text-align: center; margin: 0cm;" align="center"><span style="color: #00b050;">-0.51%</span></p> </td> </tr> <tr style="height: 28.5pt;"> <td style="width: 152.0pt; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; height: 28.5pt;" width="203"> <p style="text-align: center; margin: 0cm;" align="center"><span style="color: black;"><a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-968-----01010501-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>镀锌</a></span></p> </td> <td style="width: 91.0pt; border-top: none; border-left: none; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; height: 28.5pt;" width="121"> <p style="text-align: center; margin: 0cm;" align="center"><span style="color: black;">5053</span></p> </td> <td style="width: 91.0pt; border-top: none; border-left: none; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; height: 28.5pt;" width="121"> <p style="text-align: center; margin: 0cm;" align="center"><span style="color: black;">5068</span></p> </td> <td style="width: 65.0pt; border-top: none; border-left: none; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; height: 28.5pt;" width="87"> <p style="text-align: center; margin: 0cm;" align="center"><span style="color: #00b050;">-15</span></p> </td> <td style="width: 54.0pt; border-top: none; border-left: none; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; height: 28.5pt;" width="72"> <p style="text-align: center; margin: 0cm;" align="center"><span style="color: #00b050;">-0.30%</span></p> </td> </tr> <tr style="height: 14.25pt;"> <td style="width: 152.0pt; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; height: 14.25pt;" width="203"> <p style="text-align: center; margin: 0cm;" align="center"><span style="color: black;"><a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-968-----01010502-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>彩涂</a></span></p> </td> <td style="width: 91.0pt; border-top: none; border-left: none; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; height: 14.25pt;" width="121"> <p style="text-align: center; margin: 0cm;" align="center"><span style="color: black;">5796</span></p> </td> <td style="width: 91.0pt; border-top: none; border-left: none; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; height: 14.25pt;" width="121"> <p style="text-align: center; margin: 0cm;" align="center"><span style="color: black;">5824</span></p> </td> <td style="width: 65.0pt; border-top: none; border-left: none; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; height: 14.25pt;" width="87"> <p style="text-align: center; margin: 0cm;" align="center"><span style="color: #00b050;">-28</span></p> </td> <td style="width: 54.0pt; border-top: none; border-left: none; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; height: 14.25pt;" width="72"> <p style="text-align: center; margin: 0cm;" align="center"><span style="color: #00b050;">-0.48%</span></p> </td> </tr> <tr style="height: 14.25pt;"> <td style="width: 152.0pt; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; height: 14.25pt;" width="203"> <p style="text-align: center; margin: 0cm;" align="center"><span style="color: black;"><a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-968-----010106-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>硅钢</a></span></p> </td> <td style="width: 91.0pt; border-top: none; border-left: none; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; height: 14.25pt;" width="121"> <p style="text-align: center; margin: 0cm;" align="center"><span style="color: black;">5550</span></p> </td> <td style="width: 91.0pt; border-top: none; border-left: none; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; height: 14.25pt;" width="121"> <p style="text-align: center; margin: 0cm;" align="center"><span style="color: black;">5550</span></p> </td> <td style="width: 65.0pt; border-top: none; border-left: none; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; height: 14.25pt;" width="87"> <p style="text-align: center; margin: 0cm;" align="center"><span style="color: black;">0</span></p> </td> <td style="width: 54.0pt; border-top: none; border-left: none; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; height: 14.25pt;" width="72"> <p style="text-align: center; margin: 0cm;" align="center"><span style="color: black;">0.00%</span></p> </td> </tr> <tr style="height: 14.25pt;"> <td style="width: 152.0pt; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; height: 14.25pt;" width="203"> <p style="text-align: center; margin: 0cm;" align="center"><span style="color: black;">电解<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-967-----0202-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>铝</a></span></p> </td> <td style="width: 91.0pt; border-top: none; border-left: none; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; height: 14.25pt;" width="121"> <p style="text-align: center; margin: 0cm;" align="center"><span style="color: black;">18974</span></p> </td> <td style="width: 91.0pt; border-top: none; border-left: none; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; height: 14.25pt;" width="121"> <p style="text-align: center; margin: 0cm;" align="center"><span style="color: black;">18906</span></p> </td> <td style="width: 65.0pt; border-top: none; border-left: none; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; height: 14.25pt;" width="87"> <p style="text-align: center; margin: 0cm;" align="center"><span style="color: #c00000;">68</span></p> </td> <td style="width: 54.0pt; border-top: none; border-left: none; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; height: 14.25pt;" width="72"> <p style="text-align: center; margin: 0cm;" align="center"><span style="color: #c00000;">0.36%</span></p> </td> </tr> <tr style="height: 14.25pt;"> <td style="width: 152.0pt; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; height: 14.25pt;" width="203"> <p style="text-align: center; margin: 0cm;" align="center"><span style="color: black;"><a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-967-----020101-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>电解铜</a>（广东）</span></p> </td> <td style="width: 91.0pt; border-top: none; border-left: none; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; height: 14.25pt;" nowrap="nowrap" width="121"> <p style="text-align: center; margin: 0cm;" align="center"><span style="color: black;">68800</span></p> </td> <td style="width: 91.0pt; border-top: none; border-left: none; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; height: 14.25pt;" nowrap="nowrap" width="121"> <p style="text-align: center; margin: 0cm;" align="center"><span style="color: black;">69280</span></p> </td> <td style="width: 65.0pt; border-top: none; border-left: none; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; height: 14.25pt;" width="87"> <p style="text-align: center; margin: 0cm;" align="center"><span style="color: #00b050;">-480</span></p> </td> <td style="width: 54.0pt; border-top: none; border-left: none; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; height: 14.25pt;" width="72"> <p style="text-align: center; margin: 0cm;" align="center"><span style="color: #00b050;">-0.69%</span></p> </td> </tr> <tr style="height: 14.25pt;"> <td style="width: 152.0pt; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; height: 14.25pt;" width="203"> <p style="text-align: center; margin: 0cm;" align="center"><span style="color: black;">紫<a href='https://m.mymetal.net/article/p-----020107---------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>铜管</a></span></p> </td> <td style="width: 91.0pt; border-top: none; border-left: none; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; height: 14.25pt;" nowrap="nowrap" width="121"> <p style="text-align: center; margin: 0cm;" align="center"><span style="color: black;">72471</span></p> </td> <td style="width: 91.0pt; border-top: none; border-left: none; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; height: 14.25pt;" nowrap="nowrap" width="121"> <p style="text-align: center; margin: 0cm;" align="center"><span style="color: black;">73314</span></p> </td> <td style="width: 65.0pt; border-top: none; border-left: none; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; height: 14.25pt;" width="87"> <p style="text-align: center; margin: 0cm;" align="center"><span style="color: #00b050;">-843</span></p> </td> <td style="width: 54.0pt; border-top: none; border-left: none; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; height: 14.25pt;" width="72"> <p style="text-align: center; margin: 0cm;" align="center"><span style="color: #00b050;">-1.15%</span></p> </td> </tr> <tr style="height: 14.25pt;"> <td style="width: 152.0pt; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; height: 14.25pt;" width="203"> <p style="text-align: center; margin: 0cm;" align="center"><span style="color: black;"><a href='https://bxg.m.mysteel.com/' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>不锈钢</a>（绝对价格指数）</span></p> </td> <td style="width: 91.0pt; border-top: none; border-left: none; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; height: 14.25pt;" width="121"> <p style="text-align: center; margin: 0cm;" align="center"><span style="color: black;">14708.73</span></p> </td> <td style="width: 91.0pt; border-top: none; border-left: none; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; height: 14.25pt;" width="121"> <p style="text-align: center; margin: 0cm;" align="center"><span style="color: black;">14533.25</span></p> </td> <td style="width: 65.0pt; border-top: none; border-left: none; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; height: 14.25pt;" width="87"> <p style="text-align: center; margin: 0cm;" align="center"><span style="color: #c00000;">175.48</span></p> </td> <td style="width: 54.0pt; border-top: none; border-left: none; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; height: 14.25pt;" width="72"> <p style="text-align: center; margin: 0cm;" align="center"><span style="color: #c00000;">1.21%</span></p> </td> </tr> <tr style="height: 14.25pt;"> <td style="width: 152.0pt; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; height: 14.25pt;" width="203"> <p style="text-align: center; margin: 0cm;" align="center"><span style="color: black;">A90</span><span style="color: black;">橡胶</span></p> </td> <td style="width: 91.0pt; border-top: none; border-left: none; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; height: 14.25pt;" nowrap="nowrap" width="121"> <p style="text-align: center; margin: 0cm;" align="center"><span style="color: black;">73000</span></p> </td> <td style="width: 91.0pt; border-top: none; border-left: none; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; height: 14.25pt;" nowrap="nowrap" width="121"> <p style="text-align: center; margin: 0cm;" align="center"><span style="color: black;">73000</span></p> </td> <td style="width: 65.0pt; border-top: none; border-left: none; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; height: 14.25pt;" width="87"> <p style="text-align: center; margin: 0cm;" align="center"><span style="color: black;">0</span></p> </td> <td style="width: 54.0pt; border-top: none; border-left: none; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; height: 14.25pt;" width="72"> <p style="text-align: center; margin: 0cm;" align="center"><span style="color: black;">0.00%</span></p> </td> </tr> <tr style="height: 14.25pt;"> <td style="width: 152.0pt; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; height: 14.25pt;" width="203"> <p style="text-align: center; margin: 0cm;" align="center"><span style="color: black;">ABS</span><span style="color: black;">塑料</span></p> </td> <td style="width: 91.0pt; border-top: none; border-left: none; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; height: 14.25pt;" width="121"> <p style="text-align: center; margin: 0cm;" align="center"><span style="color: black;">12000</span></p> </td> <td style="width: 91.0pt; border-top: none; border-left: none; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; height: 14.25pt;" width="121"> <p style="text-align: center; margin: 0cm;" align="center"><span style="color: black;">12000</span></p> </td> <td style="width: 65.0pt; border-top: none; border-left: none; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; height: 14.25pt;" width="87"> <p style="text-align: center; margin: 0cm;" align="center"><span style="color: black;">0</span></p> </td> <td style="width: 54.0pt; border-top: none; border-left: none; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; height: 14.25pt;" width="72"> <p style="text-align: center; margin: 0cm;" align="center"><span style="color: black;">0.00%</span></p> </td> </tr> <tr style="height: 14.25pt;"> <td style="width: 152.0pt; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; height: 14.25pt;" width="203"> <p style="text-align: center; margin: 0cm;" align="center"><span style="color: black;">玻璃（华东）</span></p> </td> <td style="width: 91.0pt; border-top: none; border-left: none; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; height: 14.25pt;" width="121"> <p style="text-align: center; margin: 0cm;" align="center"><span style="color: black;">2140</span></p> </td> <td style="width: 91.0pt; border-top: none; border-left: none; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; height: 14.25pt;" width="121"> <p style="text-align: center; margin: 0cm;" align="center"><span style="color: black;">2130</span></p> </td> <td style="width: 65.0pt; border-top: none; border-left: none; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; height: 14.25pt;" width="87"> <p style="text-align: center; margin: 0cm;" align="center"><span style="color: #c00000;">10</span></p> </td> <td style="width: 54.0pt; border-top: none; border-left: none; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; height: 14.25pt;" width="72"> <p style="margin: 0cm;" align="center"><span style="color: #c00000;">0.47%</span></p> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <p><strong> </strong>价格指标变更：玻璃价格指标由华东（浙江）市场主流价格调整为华东地区市场价</p> <p><strong>二、主要原材料品种价格分析</strong></p> <p><strong>①冷轧：复工加快，需求恢复，3月冷轧价格预计偏强调整</strong></p> <p>展望3月，考虑到节前停产钢厂逐步恢复生产，冷轧板卷供应或将继续回升。而期货市场虽然近期处于走弱趋势，不过国内宏观政策依旧存在释放利好的预期，加上股票市场回升或将带动市场信心的恢复，盘面弱势状态或将好转。同时从节后制造业整体下游复工复产情况来看，今年复工进度将有所加快，市场需求释放力度加大。且企业资金状况方面，下游企业资金非常充裕（可维持半年以上）生产经营的企业占比约23%，资金比较宽裕（可维持3-6个月）生产经营的企业占比约39%，97%以上的企业都可以维持一个月以上的运营；整体来看制造业现金流还是较为充裕，市场活跃度仍可保持。因此在供需两端持续扩张预期下冷轧板卷基本面将有所支撑。并且从市场情况来看，市场预期4月钢厂订货价格仍有上调空间，贸易商订货成本增加。因此3月冷轧价格或调整偏强为主。</p> <p style="text-align: center;"><img style="width: 600px; height: 333.945px;" src="//img06.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2024/03/04/06b5c5b55ca54292a9be5d46d03e6165.png" width="600" height="333" /></p> <p style="text-align: center;"><img style="width: 600px; height: 341.267px;" src="//img03.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2024/03/04/ec3d1e7232fd43ac93e8838b5a9a1005.png" width="600" height="341" /></p> <p><strong>②镀锌：复工加快，需求恢复，3月价格预计震荡上行</strong></p> <p>从3月份镀锌板卷整体基本面情况来看，随着停产钢厂在春节假期之后逐步复产，产量将快速恢复至节前水平。而需求方面，从<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>Mysteel</a>调研结果来看，调研企业中大部分都有一定数量的在手订单，因此节后复工表现较为积极，制造业需求仍可维持；并且市场资金流还是较为充裕，项目用工资金消耗进度较缓，预计元宵节后下游动复工完备，3月份工厂开工速度将逐步加快；宏观方面，近期还有重要会议即将召开，而下游市场对于宏观政策仍抱有积极预期，期待国家政策面加大投资拉动，出台相关扶持政策，持续改善营商环境。因此3月份随着需求陆续恢复，加上宏观情绪想好支撑，预计镀锌板卷价格将有小幅上涨。</p> <p style="text-align: center;"><img src="//img04.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2024/03/04/7cee0ed761f54c24b82ebeba08133f64.png" width="568" height="342" /></p> <p style="text-align: center;"><img src="//img08.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2024/03/04/39246ad55f574a91a45a9592af6fc62c.png" width="548" height="320" /></p> <p><strong>③铝：预计3月<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-967-----0202-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>铝价</a>稳中偏强运行</strong></p> <p>2月铝价整体震荡偏强运行。上月宽幅震荡，尤其春节期间价格下跌，节后价格又有所回升。春节期间，铝价波动较大，目前持货商持挺价心态出货较少，市场整体报价持稳为主，整体情绪较为积极，库存继续小幅增加。但受到天气影响，运输供应或有所受限，持货商逢高控制节奏出货，中间商逢低采购积极性有所提高，叠加下游刚需支撑，整体交投较稳定。目前铝价受原料端提振快速拉升，月底开盘初期持货商逢高积极出货，接货方则压价按需采购，随着盘中拉涨，带动市场看涨情绪，转为挺价缓出，报价提升至均价附近，需求方亦有追涨买入行为，整体交投稳中向好后期随着盘面冲高回落，成交亦随之转淡。预计2024年3月铝价稳中偏强运行。</p> <p style="text-align: center;"><img style="width: 600px; height: 345.751px;" src="//img03.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2024/03/04/8307648214f64b459bcf8186fef401b3.png" width="600" height="345" /></p> <p style="text-align: center;"><img style="width: 600px; height: 366.243px;" src="//img08.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2024/03/04/c821acaf8dfa490182e5800bf2ccee19.png" width="600" height="366" /></p> <p><strong>三、家电行业需求调研</strong></p> <p>从调研的家电行业数据来看，预估原料需求端企业3月份库存量环比增加19.67%，从接单表现及排产能力预估，原料日耗月环比增加12.19%，宏观政策暖风之下，潜在需求正在被发掘。随着需求多元、消费场景分化，家电行业活动火热，旅游及餐饮热也对家电行业消耗带来增量。</p> <p>据Mysteel调研从家电行业用钢量来看，截至2月底，调研了解到家电行业样本企业3月份新增订单量增加的企业占比超过半成，较2月预期环比新增订单上升31.58个百分点。宏观层面的利好与市场需求相契合将撬动庞大的家电市场，尤其是高端化、智能化产品的更新换代需求将进一步释放。同时需求多元、消费场景分化，空调行业的竞争成为一场价格、产品、服务等多方面发力的综合之战。</p> <p style="text-align: center;"><img style="width: 600px; height: 366.936px;" src="//img08.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2024/03/04/f17ad9dbf6754259928d9b0361427ac5.png" width="600" height="366" /></p> <p><strong>四、月度热点信息</strong></p> <p><strong>1</strong><strong>、三大白电2024年3月排产数据发布</strong></p> <p>据产业在线最新发布的三大白电排产报告显示，2024年3月空冰洗排产总量合计为3694万台，较去年同期生产实绩增长17.3%。</p> <p>具体来看，3月份家用空调排产2213万台，较去年同期实绩增长25.2%；冰箱排产837万台，较去年同期实绩增长8.4%；洗衣机排产644万台，较去年同期生产实绩增长5.4%。</p> <p><strong>2</strong><strong>、家用空调1月产销高增，内外销市场同现备货热潮</strong></p> <p>据产业在线监测数据显示，2024年1月家用空调生产1740.9万台，同比增长63.7%；销售1631.5万台，同比增长55.8%。其中内销732.3万台，同比增长62.6%；出口899.2万台，同比增长50.6%。库存小幅下降4.3%。</p> <p>本月同比数据大幅增长很大程度受到春节假期影响，因为今年的春节在2月，企业的生产备货需求大都前置到1月释放，在同期低基数下实现了超高增长，因此后续关注1-2月累计同比情况意义更大。</p> <p><strong>3</strong><strong>、中信证券：坚定控产下TV面板淡季看涨</strong></p> <p>2月20日，中信证券研报指出，LCDTV面板：2024年1月下旬面板价格涨势初显早于预期，我们预计24Q1LCDTV面板价格即有望小幅上涨，温和缓涨态势有望延续至备货旺季，我们预计24Q2LCDTV面板盈利水平有望达到23Q3水平。尽管终端需求及备货节奏存在不确定性，后续涨价幅度及节奏仍需观察，但格局明确下价格长期向好趋势明确。国内龙头话语权持续提升，有望优先受益。</p> <p><strong>4</strong><strong>、2024年1月家电市场总结（线下篇）</strong></p> <p>彩电：据奥维云网(AVC)线下市场监测数据显示，本月彩电线下零售额规模同比22.7%；均价为6310元，同比22.2%；15000+的彩电零售额占比27.6%，同比9.7%；不同彩电尺寸中，75寸+彩电零售额占比41.8%，同比14.4%。</p> <p>白电：据奥维云网(AVC)线下市场监测数据显示，本月白电各品类中，冰箱、冰柜、洗衣机、独立式干衣机和空调线下零售额规模同比分别为20.7%、-31.8%、39.0%、116.0%和48.3%；冰箱、冰柜、洗衣机、独立式干衣机和空调的均价分别为6677元、1624元、4135元、8730元和4472元，同比分别为12.2%、1.5%、10.8%、-1.1%和-0.8%；各品类中，高端品零售额占比分别为38.9%、7.1%、9.2%、33.9%和22.0%，同比分别为7.7%、2.5%、0.2%、-5.0%和-1.6%。</p> <p>厨卫：据奥维云网(AVC)线下市场监测数据显示，本月厨卫主要品类中，油烟机、燃气灶、洗碗机、集成灶、电热和燃热的线下零售额规模同比分别为75.2%、50.6%、137.0%、104.4%、32.0%和50.7%；油烟机、燃气灶、洗碗机、集成灶、电热和燃热的均价分别为3867元、1848元、8052元、10147元、1827元和3261元，同比分别为8.4%、5.6%、6.8%、6.0%、-11.1%和6.9%；各品类中，高端品零售额占比分别为14.8%、29.4%、57.2%、17.4%、12.2%和28.9%，同比分别为5.9%、7.0%、12.5%、8.5%、3.7%和3.0%。</p> <p>小家电：据奥维云网(AVC)线下市场监测数据显示，本月小家电线下零售额规模同比-23.0%；均价为478元，同比5.5%；高端品零售额占比5.6%，同比0.4%。</p> <p>环电：据奥维云网(AVC)线下市场监测数据显示，本月环电主要品类中，净化器、净水器、扫地机器人和洗地机线下零售额规模同比分别为4.0%、46.1%、73.7%和2.7%；净化器、净水器、扫地机器人和洗地机的均价分为3336元、4414元、4741元和3204元，同比分别为-4.7%、2.5%、10.5%和-7.3%；各品类中，高端品零售额占比分别为33.4%、30.2%、56.4%和24.0%，同比分别为-1.8%、1.8%、21.3%和-14.6%。</p>  <br /> </div> </div> </article> <article class="content-block m-copyRight"> 资讯编辑：刘儒 021-26096617 </br> 资讯监督：胡赛男 021-26093781 </br> 资讯投诉：陈杰 021-26093100 </br> </article> <article class="content-block m-copyRight h-statement"> <p class="h-statement-text">免责声明：Mysteel发布的原创及转载内容，仅供客户参考，不作为决策建议。原创内容版权归Mysteel所有，转载需取得Mysteel书面授权，且Mysteel保留对任何侵权行为和有悖原创内容原意的引用行为进行追究的权利。转载内容来源于网络，目的在于传递更多信息，方便学习与交流，并不代表Mysteel赞同其观点及对其真实性、完整性负责。申请授权及投诉，请联系Mysteel（021-26093397）处理。</p> <span class='h-statement-show'>展开</span> </article> <div class="content-block-title s-title"> <h2 style="display: inline-block;"> <a href="https://m.mysteel.com/article/p-308-------------1.html" external>相关文章</a> </h2> <a href="https://m.mysteel.com/article/p-308-------------1.html" external class="more"> 查看更多<i class="arrow"></i> </a> </div> <div class="list-block recommend-list"> <ul> <li class="item"> <div class="news-title"> <a data-url="m.mysteel.com" href="//m.mysteel.com/a/24072914/C64AA889D35FD0C0_abc.html" external> 洛图科技：2024H1中国智能投影销量288.9万台，同比增3.5% </a> </div> <div class="news-time">2024-07-29</div> </li> <li class="item"> <div class="news-title"> <a data-url="m.mysteel.com" href="//m.mysteel.com/a/24072913/F5938D274942F27C_abc.html" external> 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