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Aléa — Wikipédia

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vector-toc-list-item-expanded"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#Risques_naturels"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> <span class="vector-toc-numb">2</span> <span>Risques naturels</span> </div> </a> <ul id="toc-Risques_naturels-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> </ul> </li> <li id="toc-Notes_et_références" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-1 vector-toc-list-item-expanded"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#Notes_et_références"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> <span class="vector-toc-numb">3</span> <span>Notes et références</span> </div> </a> <ul id="toc-Notes_et_références-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> </ul> </li> <li id="toc-Voir_aussi" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-1 vector-toc-list-item-expanded"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#Voir_aussi"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> <span class="vector-toc-numb">4</span> <span>Voir aussi</span> </div> </a> <button aria-controls="toc-Voir_aussi-sublist" class="cdx-button cdx-button--weight-quiet cdx-button--icon-only vector-toc-toggle"> <span class="vector-icon mw-ui-icon-wikimedia-expand"></span> <span>Afficher / masquer la sous-section Voir aussi</span> </button> <ul id="toc-Voir_aussi-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> <li id="toc-Bibliographie" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-2"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#Bibliographie"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> <span class="vector-toc-numb">4.1</span> <span>Bibliographie</span> </div> </a> <ul id="toc-Bibliographie-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> </ul> </li> <li id="toc-Articles_connexes" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-2"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#Articles_connexes"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> <span class="vector-toc-numb">4.2</span> <span>Articles connexes</span> </div> </a> <ul id="toc-Articles_connexes-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> </ul> </li> </ul> </li> </ul> </div> </div> </nav> </div> </div> <div class="mw-content-container"> <main id="content" class="mw-body"> <header class="mw-body-header vector-page-titlebar"> <nav aria-label="Sommaire" class="vector-toc-landmark"> <div id="vector-page-titlebar-toc" class="vector-dropdown vector-page-titlebar-toc vector-button-flush-left" title="Table des matières" > <input type="checkbox" id="vector-page-titlebar-toc-checkbox" role="button" aria-haspopup="true" data-event-name="ui.dropdown-vector-page-titlebar-toc" class="vector-dropdown-checkbox " aria-label="Basculer la table des matières" > <label id="vector-page-titlebar-toc-label" for="vector-page-titlebar-toc-checkbox" class="vector-dropdown-label cdx-button cdx-button--fake-button cdx-button--fake-button--enabled cdx-button--weight-quiet cdx-button--icon-only " aria-hidden="true" ><span class="vector-icon mw-ui-icon-listBullet mw-ui-icon-wikimedia-listBullet"></span> <span class="vector-dropdown-label-text">Basculer la table des matières</span> </label> <div class="vector-dropdown-content"> <div id="vector-page-titlebar-toc-unpinned-container" class="vector-unpinned-container"> </div> </div> </div> </nav> <h1 id="firstHeading" class="firstHeading mw-first-heading"><span class="mw-page-title-main">Aléa</span></h1> <div id="p-lang-btn" class="vector-dropdown mw-portlet mw-portlet-lang" > <input type="checkbox" id="p-lang-btn-checkbox" role="button" aria-haspopup="true" data-event-name="ui.dropdown-p-lang-btn" class="vector-dropdown-checkbox mw-interlanguage-selector" aria-label="Aller à un article dans une autre langue. Disponible en 7 langues." > <label id="p-lang-btn-label" for="p-lang-btn-checkbox" class="vector-dropdown-label cdx-button cdx-button--fake-button cdx-button--fake-button--enabled cdx-button--weight-quiet cdx-button--action-progressive mw-portlet-lang-heading-7" aria-hidden="true" ><span class="vector-icon mw-ui-icon-language-progressive mw-ui-icon-wikimedia-language-progressive"></span> <span class="vector-dropdown-label-text">7 langues</span> </label> <div class="vector-dropdown-content"> <div class="vector-menu-content"> <ul class="vector-menu-content-list"> <li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-ceb mw-list-item"><a href="https://ceb.wikipedia.org/wiki/Al%C3%A9a" title="Aléa – cebuano" lang="ceb" hreflang="ceb" data-title="Aléa" data-language-autonym="Cebuano" data-language-local-name="cebuano" class="interlanguage-link-target"><span>Cebuano</span></a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-de mw-list-item"><a href="https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alea" title="Alea – allemand" lang="de" hreflang="de" data-title="Alea" data-language-autonym="Deutsch" data-language-local-name="allemand" class="interlanguage-link-target"><span>Deutsch</span></a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-en mw-list-item"><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alea" title="Alea – anglais" lang="en" hreflang="en" data-title="Alea" data-language-autonym="English" data-language-local-name="anglais" class="interlanguage-link-target"><span>English</span></a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-fi mw-list-item"><a href="https://fi.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alea" title="Alea – finnois" lang="fi" hreflang="fi" data-title="Alea" data-language-autonym="Suomi" data-language-local-name="finnois" class="interlanguage-link-target"><span>Suomi</span></a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-it mw-list-item"><a href="https://it.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alea" title="Alea – italien" lang="it" hreflang="it" data-title="Alea" data-language-autonym="Italiano" data-language-local-name="italien" class="interlanguage-link-target"><span>Italiano</span></a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-la mw-list-item"><a href="https://la.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alea" title="Alea – latin" lang="la" hreflang="la" data-title="Alea" data-language-autonym="Latina" data-language-local-name="latin" class="interlanguage-link-target"><span>Latina</span></a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-sv mw-list-item"><a href="https://sv.wikipedia.org/wiki/Al%C3%A9a" title="Aléa – suédois" lang="sv" hreflang="sv" data-title="Aléa" data-language-autonym="Svenska" data-language-local-name="suédois" class="interlanguage-link-target"><span>Svenska</span></a></li> </ul> <div class="after-portlet after-portlet-lang"><span class="wb-langlinks-edit wb-langlinks-link"><a href="https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Special:EntityPage/Q1209971#sitelinks-wikipedia" title="Modifier les liens interlangues" class="wbc-editpage">Modifier les liens</a></span></div> </div> </div> </div> </header> <div class="vector-page-toolbar"> <div class="vector-page-toolbar-container"> <div id="left-navigation"> <nav aria-label="Espaces de noms"> <div id="p-associated-pages" class="vector-menu vector-menu-tabs mw-portlet mw-portlet-associated-pages" > <div class="vector-menu-content"> <ul class="vector-menu-content-list"> <li id="ca-nstab-main" class="selected vector-tab-noicon mw-list-item"><a href="/wiki/Al%C3%A9a" title="Voir le contenu de la page [c]" accesskey="c"><span>Article</span></a></li><li id="ca-talk" class="vector-tab-noicon mw-list-item"><a href="/wiki/Discussion:Al%C3%A9a" rel="discussion" title="Discussion au sujet de cette page de contenu [t]" accesskey="t"><span>Discussion</span></a></li> </ul> </div> </div> <div id="vector-variants-dropdown" class="vector-dropdown emptyPortlet" > <input type="checkbox" id="vector-variants-dropdown-checkbox" role="button" aria-haspopup="true" data-event-name="ui.dropdown-vector-variants-dropdown" class="vector-dropdown-checkbox " aria-label="Modifier la variante de langue" > <label id="vector-variants-dropdown-label" for="vector-variants-dropdown-checkbox" class="vector-dropdown-label cdx-button cdx-button--fake-button cdx-button--fake-button--enabled cdx-button--weight-quiet" aria-hidden="true" ><span class="vector-dropdown-label-text">français</span> </label> <div class="vector-dropdown-content"> <div id="p-variants" class="vector-menu mw-portlet mw-portlet-variants emptyPortlet" > <div class="vector-menu-content"> <ul class="vector-menu-content-list"> </ul> </div> </div> </div> </div> </nav> </div> <div id="right-navigation" class="vector-collapsible"> <nav aria-label="Affichages"> <div id="p-views" class="vector-menu vector-menu-tabs mw-portlet mw-portlet-views" > <div class="vector-menu-content"> <ul class="vector-menu-content-list"> <li id="ca-view" class="selected vector-tab-noicon mw-list-item"><a href="/wiki/Al%C3%A9a"><span>Lire</span></a></li><li id="ca-ve-edit" class="vector-tab-noicon mw-list-item"><a href="/w/index.php?title=Al%C3%A9a&amp;veaction=edit" title="Modifier cette page [v]" accesskey="v"><span>Modifier</span></a></li><li id="ca-edit" class="collapsible vector-tab-noicon mw-list-item"><a href="/w/index.php?title=Al%C3%A9a&amp;action=edit" title="Modifier le wikicode de cette page [e]" accesskey="e"><span>Modifier le code</span></a></li><li id="ca-history" class="vector-tab-noicon mw-list-item"><a href="/w/index.php?title=Al%C3%A9a&amp;action=history" title="Historique des versions de cette page [h]" accesskey="h"><span>Voir l’historique</span></a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </nav> <nav class="vector-page-tools-landmark" aria-label="Outils de la page"> <div id="vector-page-tools-dropdown" class="vector-dropdown vector-page-tools-dropdown" > <input type="checkbox" id="vector-page-tools-dropdown-checkbox" role="button" aria-haspopup="true" data-event-name="ui.dropdown-vector-page-tools-dropdown" class="vector-dropdown-checkbox " aria-label="Outils" > <label id="vector-page-tools-dropdown-label" for="vector-page-tools-dropdown-checkbox" class="vector-dropdown-label cdx-button cdx-button--fake-button cdx-button--fake-button--enabled cdx-button--weight-quiet" aria-hidden="true" ><span class="vector-dropdown-label-text">Outils</span> </label> <div class="vector-dropdown-content"> <div id="vector-page-tools-unpinned-container" class="vector-unpinned-container"> <div id="vector-page-tools" class="vector-page-tools vector-pinnable-element"> <div class="vector-pinnable-header vector-page-tools-pinnable-header vector-pinnable-header-unpinned" data-feature-name="page-tools-pinned" data-pinnable-element-id="vector-page-tools" data-pinned-container-id="vector-page-tools-pinned-container" data-unpinned-container-id="vector-page-tools-unpinned-container" > <div class="vector-pinnable-header-label">Outils</div> <button class="vector-pinnable-header-toggle-button vector-pinnable-header-pin-button" data-event-name="pinnable-header.vector-page-tools.pin">déplacer vers la barre latérale</button> <button class="vector-pinnable-header-toggle-button vector-pinnable-header-unpin-button" data-event-name="pinnable-header.vector-page-tools.unpin">masquer</button> </div> <div id="p-cactions" class="vector-menu mw-portlet mw-portlet-cactions emptyPortlet vector-has-collapsible-items" title="Plus d’options" > <div class="vector-menu-heading"> Actions </div> <div class="vector-menu-content"> <ul class="vector-menu-content-list"> <li id="ca-more-view" class="selected vector-more-collapsible-item mw-list-item"><a href="/wiki/Al%C3%A9a"><span>Lire</span></a></li><li id="ca-more-ve-edit" class="vector-more-collapsible-item mw-list-item"><a href="/w/index.php?title=Al%C3%A9a&amp;veaction=edit" title="Modifier cette page [v]" accesskey="v"><span>Modifier</span></a></li><li id="ca-more-edit" class="collapsible vector-more-collapsible-item mw-list-item"><a href="/w/index.php?title=Al%C3%A9a&amp;action=edit" title="Modifier le wikicode de cette page [e]" accesskey="e"><span>Modifier le code</span></a></li><li id="ca-more-history" class="vector-more-collapsible-item mw-list-item"><a href="/w/index.php?title=Al%C3%A9a&amp;action=history"><span>Voir l’historique</span></a></li> </ul> </div> </div> <div id="p-tb" class="vector-menu mw-portlet mw-portlet-tb" > <div class="vector-menu-heading"> Général </div> <div class="vector-menu-content"> <ul class="vector-menu-content-list"> <li id="t-whatlinkshere" class="mw-list-item"><a href="/wiki/Sp%C3%A9cial:Pages_li%C3%A9es/Al%C3%A9a" title="Liste des pages liées qui pointent sur celle-ci [j]" accesskey="j"><span>Pages liées</span></a></li><li id="t-recentchangeslinked" class="mw-list-item"><a href="/wiki/Sp%C3%A9cial:Suivi_des_liens/Al%C3%A9a" rel="nofollow" title="Liste des modifications récentes des pages appelées par celle-ci [k]" accesskey="k"><span>Suivi des pages liées</span></a></li><li id="t-upload" class="mw-list-item"><a href="//fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aide:Importer_un_fichier" title="Téléverser des fichiers [u]" accesskey="u"><span>Téléverser un fichier</span></a></li><li id="t-permalink" class="mw-list-item"><a href="/w/index.php?title=Al%C3%A9a&amp;oldid=222106716" title="Adresse permanente de cette version de cette page"><span>Lien permanent</span></a></li><li id="t-info" class="mw-list-item"><a href="/w/index.php?title=Al%C3%A9a&amp;action=info" title="Davantage d’informations sur cette page"><span>Informations sur la page</span></a></li><li id="t-cite" class="mw-list-item"><a href="/w/index.php?title=Sp%C3%A9cial:Citer&amp;page=Al%C3%A9a&amp;id=222106716&amp;wpFormIdentifier=titleform" title="Informations sur la manière de citer cette page"><span>Citer cette page</span></a></li><li id="t-urlshortener" class="mw-list-item"><a href="/w/index.php?title=Sp%C3%A9cial:UrlShortener&amp;url=https%3A%2F%2Ffr.wikipedia.org%2Fwiki%2FAl%25C3%25A9a"><span>Obtenir l&#039;URL raccourcie</span></a></li><li id="t-urlshortener-qrcode" class="mw-list-item"><a href="/w/index.php?title=Sp%C3%A9cial:QrCode&amp;url=https%3A%2F%2Ffr.wikipedia.org%2Fwiki%2FAl%25C3%25A9a"><span>Télécharger le code QR</span></a></li> </ul> </div> </div> <div id="p-coll-print_export" class="vector-menu mw-portlet mw-portlet-coll-print_export" > <div class="vector-menu-heading"> Imprimer / exporter </div> <div class="vector-menu-content"> <ul class="vector-menu-content-list"> <li id="coll-create_a_book" class="mw-list-item"><a href="/w/index.php?title=Sp%C3%A9cial:Livre&amp;bookcmd=book_creator&amp;referer=Al%C3%A9a"><span>Créer un livre</span></a></li><li id="coll-download-as-rl" class="mw-list-item"><a href="/w/index.php?title=Sp%C3%A9cial:DownloadAsPdf&amp;page=Al%C3%A9a&amp;action=show-download-screen"><span>Télécharger comme PDF</span></a></li><li id="t-print" class="mw-list-item"><a href="/w/index.php?title=Al%C3%A9a&amp;printable=yes" title="Version imprimable de cette page [p]" accesskey="p"><span>Version imprimable</span></a></li> </ul> </div> </div> <div id="p-wikibase-otherprojects" class="vector-menu mw-portlet mw-portlet-wikibase-otherprojects" > <div class="vector-menu-heading"> Dans d’autres projets </div> <div class="vector-menu-content"> <ul class="vector-menu-content-list"> <li id="t-wikibase" class="wb-otherproject-link wb-otherproject-wikibase-dataitem mw-list-item"><a href="https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Special:EntityPage/Q1209971" title="Lien vers l’élément dans le dépôt de données connecté [g]" accesskey="g"><span>Élément Wikidata</span></a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </nav> </div> </div> </div> <div class="vector-column-end"> <div class="vector-sticky-pinned-container"> <nav class="vector-page-tools-landmark" aria-label="Outils de la page"> <div id="vector-page-tools-pinned-container" class="vector-pinned-container"> </div> </nav> <nav class="vector-appearance-landmark" aria-label="Apparence"> <div id="vector-appearance-pinned-container" class="vector-pinned-container"> <div id="vector-appearance" class="vector-appearance vector-pinnable-element"> <div class="vector-pinnable-header vector-appearance-pinnable-header vector-pinnable-header-pinned" data-feature-name="appearance-pinned" data-pinnable-element-id="vector-appearance" data-pinned-container-id="vector-appearance-pinned-container" data-unpinned-container-id="vector-appearance-unpinned-container" > <div class="vector-pinnable-header-label">Apparence</div> <button class="vector-pinnable-header-toggle-button vector-pinnable-header-pin-button" data-event-name="pinnable-header.vector-appearance.pin">déplacer vers la barre latérale</button> <button class="vector-pinnable-header-toggle-button vector-pinnable-header-unpin-button" data-event-name="pinnable-header.vector-appearance.unpin">masquer</button> </div> </div> </div> </nav> </div> </div> <div id="bodyContent" class="vector-body" aria-labelledby="firstHeading" data-mw-ve-target-container> <div class="vector-body-before-content"> <div class="mw-indicators"> </div> <div id="siteSub" class="noprint">Un article de Wikipédia, l&#039;encyclopédie libre.</div> </div> <div id="contentSub"><div id="mw-content-subtitle"></div></div> <div id="mw-content-text" class="mw-body-content"><div class="mw-content-ltr mw-parser-output" lang="fr" dir="ltr"><div class="bandeau-container metadata homonymie hatnote"><div class="bandeau-cell bandeau-icone" style="display:table-cell;padding-right:0.5em"><span class="noviewer" typeof="mw:File"><a href="/wiki/Aide:Homonymie" title="Aide:Homonymie"><img alt="Page d’aide sur l’homonymie" src="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/a/a9/Logo_disambig.svg/20px-Logo_disambig.svg.png" decoding="async" width="20" height="15" class="mw-file-element" srcset="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/a/a9/Logo_disambig.svg/30px-Logo_disambig.svg.png 1.5x, //upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/a/a9/Logo_disambig.svg/40px-Logo_disambig.svg.png 2x" data-file-width="512" data-file-height="375" /></a></span></div><div class="bandeau-cell" style="display:table-cell;padding-right:0.5em"> <p>Pour les articles homonymes, voir <a href="/wiki/Alea" title="Alea">Alea (marque commerciale)</a>, <a href="/wiki/Al%C3%A9a_(Gr%C3%A8ce)" title="Aléa (Grèce)">Aléa (Grèce)</a> et <a href="/wiki/Kouta%C3%AFssi" title="Koutaïssi">Aléa, le nom antique de la ville géorgienne de Koutaïssi</a>. </p> </div></div> <p>Un <b>aléa</b> est la tournure imprévisible que peut prendre un événement. </p><p>Le mot <i>aléa</i> vient du <a href="/wiki/Latin" title="Latin">latin</a> <i>alea</i>, qui signifie <a href="/wiki/Jeu_de_d%C3%A9s" title="Jeu de dés">jeu de dés</a>, <a href="/wiki/Hasard" title="Hasard">hasard</a><sup id="cite_ref-1" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-1"><span class="cite-bracket">&#91;</span>1<span class="cite-bracket">&#93;</span></a></sup>. Avant de <a href="/wiki/Franchir_le_Rubicon" class="mw-redirect" title="Franchir le Rubicon">franchir le Rubicon</a>, <a href="/wiki/Jules_C%C3%A9sar" title="Jules César">Jules César</a> aurait prononcé <span class="lang-la italique" lang="la"><a href="/wiki/Alea_jacta_est" title="Alea jacta est">Alea jacta est</a></span> (<span class="citation">«&#160;le sort en est jeté&#160;»</span>). </p> <meta property="mw:PageProp/toc" /> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading2"><h2 id="Risque_financier">Risque financier</h2><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Al%C3%A9a&amp;veaction=edit&amp;section=1" title="Modifier la section : Risque financier" class="mw-editsection-visualeditor"><span>modifier</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-divider"> | </span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Al%C3%A9a&amp;action=edit&amp;section=1" title="Modifier le code source de la section : Risque financier"><span>modifier le code</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <p>Au sens commercial, l'aléa est un risque financier ou industriel pris vis-à-vis d'un client dont la situation est soumise à une évolution incertaine. </p> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading2"><h2 id="Risques_naturels">Risques naturels</h2><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Al%C3%A9a&amp;veaction=edit&amp;section=2" title="Modifier la section : Risques naturels" class="mw-editsection-visualeditor"><span>modifier</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-divider"> | </span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Al%C3%A9a&amp;action=edit&amp;section=2" title="Modifier le code source de la section : Risques naturels"><span>modifier le code</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <p>En prévention des <a href="/wiki/Risque_naturel" title="Risque naturel">risques naturels</a> vis-à-vis de <a href="/wiki/Bien_(%C3%A9conomie)" title="Bien (économie)">biens</a> et des personnes, l'<a href="/wiki/Al%C3%A9a_naturel" title="Aléa naturel">aléa naturel</a> est un phénomène naturel d’occurrence et d'intensité données, à l'origine de la situation de danger. Susceptible de causer des dommages ou des préjudices, l'aléa caractérise essentiellement le phénomène naturel lui-même, indépendamment de ses conséquences potentielles. Il n'est dommageable que si des enjeux (populations, biens, activités…) sont exposés et sont vulnérables aux conséquences de sa réalisation. La survenue potentielle d'un aléa dans une zone dans laquelle des enjeux sont exposés, provoque alors une situation de risque<sup id="cite_ref-2" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-2"><span class="cite-bracket">&#91;</span>2<span class="cite-bracket">&#93;</span></a></sup>. </p><p>À titre d'exemple, de 1970 à 2012 il a été estimé que les aléas météorologiques ont provoqué <span class="citation">«&#160;8.835 <a href="/wiki/Catastrophe_naturelle" title="Catastrophe naturelle">catastrophes naturelles</a>, fait 1,94 million de morts et causé pour 2.400 milliards de dollars de pertes à l'<a href="/wiki/%C3%89conomie_mondiale" title="Économie mondiale">économie mondiale</a>&#160;»</span><sup id="cite_ref-3" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-3"><span class="cite-bracket">&#91;</span>3<span class="cite-bracket">&#93;</span></a></sup>. </p><p>Le <a href="/w/index.php?title=Bureau_des_Nations_unies_pour_la_r%C3%A9duction_des_risques_de_catastrophes&amp;action=edit&amp;redlink=1" class="new" title="Bureau des Nations unies pour la réduction des risques de catastrophes (page inexistante)">Bureau des Nations unies pour la réduction des risques de catastrophes</a>&#160;<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Nations_Office_for_Disaster_Risk_Reduction" class="extiw" title="en:United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction"><span class="indicateur-langue" title="Article en anglais&#160;: «&#160;United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction&#160;»">(en)</span></a> (UNDRR) définit un aléa comme <span class="citation">«&#160;un phénomène dangereux, une substance, une activité humaine ou une condition pouvant causer des pertes de vies humaines, des blessures ou d’autres effets sur la santé, des dommages aux biens, des pertes de moyens de subsistance et des services, des perturbations socio-économiques, ou des dommages à l’environnement.&#160;»</span> L'UNDRR donne également la définition des termes <a href="/w/index.php?title=Al%C3%A9a_biologique&amp;action=edit&amp;redlink=1" class="new" title="Aléa biologique (page inexistante)">aléa biologique</a>, <a href="/w/index.php?title=Al%C3%A9a_g%C3%A9ologique&amp;action=edit&amp;redlink=1" class="new" title="Aléa géologique (page inexistante)">aléa géologique</a>, <a href="/w/index.php?title=Al%C3%A9a_hydro-m%C3%A9t%C3%A9orologique&amp;action=edit&amp;redlink=1" class="new" title="Aléa hydro-météorologique (page inexistante)">aléa hydro-météorologique</a>, <a href="/wiki/Al%C3%A9a_naturel" title="Aléa naturel">aléa naturel</a>, <a href="/wiki/Al%C3%A9a_socio-naturel" class="mw-redirect" title="Aléa socio-naturel">aléa socio-naturel</a>, <a href="/wiki/Al%C3%A9a_technologique" title="Aléa technologique">aléa technologique</a><sup id="cite_ref-4" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-4"><span class="cite-bracket">&#91;</span>4<span class="cite-bracket">&#93;</span></a></sup>. </p><p>L'aléa se caractérise à la fois par la probabilité d'occurrence du phénomène, son intensité, mais aussi la durée considérée et l'espace pris en compte<sup id="cite_ref-5" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-5"><span class="cite-bracket">&#91;</span>5<span class="cite-bracket">&#93;</span></a></sup>. </p> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading2"><h2 id="Notes_et_références"><span id="Notes_et_r.C3.A9f.C3.A9rences"></span>Notes et références</h2><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Al%C3%A9a&amp;veaction=edit&amp;section=3" title="Modifier la section : Notes et références" class="mw-editsection-visualeditor"><span>modifier</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-divider"> | </span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Al%C3%A9a&amp;action=edit&amp;section=3" title="Modifier le code source de la section : Notes et références"><span>modifier le code</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <div class="references-small decimal" style=""><div class="mw-references-wrap"><ol class="references"> <li id="cite_note-1"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><a href="#cite_ref-1">↑</a> </span><span class="reference-text"><span class="ouvrage" id="Gaffiot1934"><span class="ouvrage" id="Félix_Gaffiot1934">Félix <span class="nom_auteur">Gaffiot</span>, <cite class="italique">Dictionnaire Latin Français</cite>, <a href="/wiki/Hachette_Livre" title="Hachette Livre">Hachette</a>, <time>1934</time>, 1710&#160;<abbr class="abbr" title="pages">p.</abbr> <small style="line-height:1em;">(<a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://www.lexilogos.com/latin/gaffiot.php?q=alea">lire en ligne</a>)</small>, <abbr class="abbr" title="page">p.</abbr>&#160;96<span class="Z3988" title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&amp;rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Abook&amp;rft.genre=book&amp;rft.btitle=Dictionnaire+Latin+Fran%C3%A7ais&amp;rft.pub=Hachette&amp;rft.aulast=Gaffiot&amp;rft.aufirst=F%C3%A9lix&amp;rft.date=1934&amp;rft.pages=96&amp;rft.tpages=1710&amp;rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Ffr.wikipedia.org%3AAl%C3%A9a"></span></span></span></span> </li> <li id="cite_note-2"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><a href="#cite_ref-2">↑</a> </span><span class="reference-text"><span class="ouvrage" id="Reghezza-Zitt2016"><span class="ouvrage" id="Magali_Reghezza-Zitt2016">Magali Reghezza-Zitt, <cite class="italique">Des hommes et des risques</cite>, Paris, Documentation photographique, <time>2016</time>, 63&#160;<abbr class="abbr" title="pages">p.</abbr>, page 3<span class="Z3988" title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&amp;rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Abook&amp;rft.genre=book&amp;rft.btitle=Des+hommes+et+des+risques&amp;rft.place=Paris&amp;rft.pub=Documentation+photographique&amp;rft.aulast=Reghezza-Zitt&amp;rft.aufirst=Magali&amp;rft.date=2016&amp;rft.pages=page+3&amp;rft.tpages=63&amp;rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Ffr.wikipedia.org%3AAl%C3%A9a"></span></span></span></span> </li> <li id="cite_note-3"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><a href="#cite_ref-3">↑</a> </span><span class="reference-text"><span class="ouvrage" id="Verdo2017"><span class="ouvrage" id="Yann_Verdo2017">Yann Verdo, «&#160;<cite style="font-style:normal">Grâce au calcul intensif, l'organisme européen chargé des prévisions à moyen terme se donne dix ans pour anticiper plus tôt et plus finement les aléas de l'atmosphère</cite>&#160;», <i><a href="/wiki/Les_%C3%89chos" title="Les Échos">Les Échos</a></i>,&#8206; <time class="nowrap" datetime="2017-01-02" data-sort-value="2017-01-02">2 janvier 2017</time> <small style="line-height:1em;">(<a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://www.lesechos.fr/idees-debats/sciences-prospective/0211576135036-repousser-les-limites-des-previsions-meteo-2053831.php">lire en ligne</a>)</small><span class="Z3988" title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&amp;rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&amp;rft.genre=article&amp;rft.atitle=Gr%C3%A2ce+au+calcul+intensif%2C+l%27organisme+europ%C3%A9en+charg%C3%A9+des+pr%C3%A9visions+%C3%A0+moyen+terme+se+donne+dix+ans+pour+anticiper+plus+t%C3%B4t+et+plus+finement+les+al%C3%A9as+de+l%27atmosph%C3%A8re&amp;rft.jtitle=Les+%C3%89chos&amp;rft.aulast=Verdo&amp;rft.aufirst=Yann&amp;rft.date=2017-01-02&amp;rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Ffr.wikipedia.org%3AAl%C3%A9a"></span></span></span></span> </li> <li id="cite_note-4"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><a href="#cite_ref-4">↑</a> </span><span class="reference-text"><abbr class="abbr indicateur-langue" title="Langue : français">(fr)</abbr> <span class="ouvrage" id="UNISDR2009"><a href="/w/index.php?title=Strat%C3%A9gie_internationale_de_pr%C3%A9vention_des_catastrophes_des_Nations_unies&amp;action=edit&amp;redlink=1" class="new" title="Stratégie internationale de prévention des catastrophes des Nations unies (page inexistante)">UNISDR</a>&#160;<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Nations_International_Strategy_for_Disaster_Reduction" class="extiw" title="en:United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction"><span class="indicateur-langue" title="Article en anglais&#160;: «&#160;United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction&#160;»">(en)</span></a>, «&#160;<a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://www.unisdr.org/files/7817_UNISDRTerminologyFrench.pdf"><cite style="font-style:normal;">Terminologie pour la prévention des risques de catastrophe</cite></a>&#160;», sur <span class="italique">unisdr.org</span>, <time>2009</time></span></span> </li> <li id="cite_note-5"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><a href="#cite_ref-5">↑</a> </span><span class="reference-text"><span class="ouvrage" id="Dauphiné,_Damienne_Provitolo2013"><span class="ouvrage" id="André_Dauphiné,_Damienne_Provitolo2013">André Dauphiné, Damienne Provitolo, <cite class="italique">Risques et catastrophes. Observer, spatialiser, comprendre, gérer</cite>, Armand Colin, <time>2013</time>, <abbr class="abbr" title="page">p.</abbr>&#160;25<span class="Z3988" title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&amp;rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Abook&amp;rft.genre=book&amp;rft.btitle=Risques+et+catastrophes.+Observer%2C+spatialiser%2C+comprendre%2C+g%C3%A9rer&amp;rft.pub=Armand+Colin&amp;rft.au=Andr%C3%A9+Dauphin%C3%A9%2C+Damienne+Provitolo&amp;rft.date=2013&amp;rft.pages=25&amp;rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Ffr.wikipedia.org%3AAl%C3%A9a"></span></span></span></span> </li> </ol></div> </div> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading2"><h2 id="Voir_aussi">Voir aussi</h2><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Al%C3%A9a&amp;veaction=edit&amp;section=4" title="Modifier la section : Voir aussi" class="mw-editsection-visualeditor"><span>modifier</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-divider"> | </span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Al%C3%A9a&amp;action=edit&amp;section=4" title="Modifier le code source de la section : Voir aussi"><span>modifier le code</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <style data-mw-deduplicate="TemplateStyles:r194021218">.mw-parser-output .autres-projets>.titre{text-align:center;margin:0.2em 0}.mw-parser-output .autres-projets>ul{margin:0;padding:0}.mw-parser-output .autres-projets>ul>li{list-style:none;margin:0.2em 0;text-indent:0;padding-left:24px;min-height:20px;text-align:left;display:block}.mw-parser-output .autres-projets>ul>li>a{font-style:italic}@media(max-width:720px){.mw-parser-output .autres-projets{float:none}}</style><div class="autres-projets boite-grise boite-a-droite noprint js-interprojets"> <p class="titre">Sur les autres projets Wikimedia&#160;:</p> <ul class="noarchive plainlinks"> <li class="wiktionary"><a href="https://fr.wiktionary.org/wiki/al%C3%A9a" class="extiw" title="wikt:aléa">aléa</a>, <span class="nowrap">sur le <span class="project">Wiktionnaire</span></span></li> </ul> </div> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading3"><h3 id="Bibliographie">Bibliographie</h3><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Al%C3%A9a&amp;veaction=edit&amp;section=5" title="Modifier la section : Bibliographie" class="mw-editsection-visualeditor"><span>modifier</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-divider"> | </span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Al%C3%A9a&amp;action=edit&amp;section=5" title="Modifier le code source de la section : Bibliographie"><span>modifier le code</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <ul><li>François Rothen, <i>Aléa Les métamorphoses du hasard Quand l'imprévisible imprègne les lois de l'atome, du monde vivant et du cosmos</i>, Presses polytechniques et universitaires romandes, 2019, Lausanne. <small style="line-height:1em;">(<a href="/wiki/International_Standard_Book_Number" title="International Standard Book Number">ISBN</a>&#160;<a href="/wiki/Sp%C3%A9cial:Ouvrages_de_r%C3%A9f%C3%A9rence/978-2-88915-288-9" title="Spécial:Ouvrages de référence/978-2-88915-288-9"><span class="nowrap">978-2-88915-288-9</span></a>)</small></li></ul> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading3"><h3 id="Articles_connexes">Articles connexes</h3><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Al%C3%A9a&amp;veaction=edit&amp;section=6" title="Modifier la section : Articles connexes" class="mw-editsection-visualeditor"><span>modifier</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-divider"> | </span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Al%C3%A9a&amp;action=edit&amp;section=6" title="Modifier le code source de la section : Articles connexes"><span>modifier le code</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Al%C3%A9a_naturel" title="Aléa naturel">Aléa naturel</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Al%C3%A9a_sismique" title="Aléa sismique">Aléa sismique</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Al%C3%A9a_moral" title="Aléa moral">Aléa moral</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Hasard" title="Hasard">Hasard</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Probabilit%C3%A9" title="Probabilité">Probabilité</a></li></ul> <ul id="bandeau-portail" class="bandeau-portail"><li><span class="bandeau-portail-element"><span class="bandeau-portail-icone"><span class="noviewer skin-invert-image" typeof="mw:File"><a href="/wiki/Portail:Langues" title="Portail des langues"><img alt="icône décorative" src="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/7/79/Portal_Languages_icon.svg/24px-Portal_Languages_icon.svg.png" decoding="async" width="24" height="24" class="mw-file-element" srcset="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/7/79/Portal_Languages_icon.svg/36px-Portal_Languages_icon.svg.png 1.5x, //upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/7/79/Portal_Languages_icon.svg/48px-Portal_Languages_icon.svg.png 2x" data-file-width="512" data-file-height="512" /></a></span></span> <span class="bandeau-portail-texte"><a href="/wiki/Portail:Langues" title="Portail:Langues">Portail des langues</a></span> </span></li> <li><span class="bandeau-portail-element"><span class="bandeau-portail-icone"><span class="noviewer" typeof="mw:File"><a href="/wiki/Portail:Risques_majeurs" title="Portail des risques majeurs"><img alt="icône décorative" src="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/6/6e/Ic%C3%B4ne_Portail_Risques_majeurs.svg/40px-Ic%C3%B4ne_Portail_Risques_majeurs.svg.png" decoding="async" width="24" height="24" class="mw-file-element" srcset="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/6/6e/Ic%C3%B4ne_Portail_Risques_majeurs.svg/60px-Ic%C3%B4ne_Portail_Risques_majeurs.svg.png 2x" data-file-width="1807" data-file-height="1807" /></a></span></span> <span class="bandeau-portail-texte"><a href="/wiki/Portail:Risques_majeurs" title="Portail:Risques majeurs">Portail des risques majeurs</a></span> </span></li> <li><span class="bandeau-portail-element"><span 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