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Basha"> <meta name="citation_author" content="E. Gjika"> <meta name="citation_publication_date" content="2024/02/05"> <meta name="citation_journal_title" content="International Journal of Environmental and Ecological Engineering"> <meta name="citation_volume" content="18"> <meta name="citation_issue" content="2"> <meta name="citation_firstpage" content="35"> <meta name="citation_lastpage" content="46"> <meta name="citation_pdf_url" content="https://publications.waset.org/10013492/pdf"> <link href="https://cdn.waset.org/favicon.ico" type="image/x-icon" rel="shortcut icon"> <link href="https://cdn.waset.org/static/plugins/bootstrap-4.2.1/css/bootstrap.min.css" rel="stylesheet"> <link href="https://cdn.waset.org/static/plugins/fontawesome/css/all.min.css" rel="stylesheet"> <link href="https://cdn.waset.org/static/css/site.css?v=150220211555" rel="stylesheet"> </head> <body> <header> <div class="container"> <nav class="navbar navbar-expand-lg navbar-light"> <a class="navbar-brand" href="https://waset.org"> <img src="https://cdn.waset.org/static/images/wasetc.png" alt="Open Science Research Excellence" title="Open Science Research Excellence" /> </a> <button class="d-block d-lg-none navbar-toggler ml-auto" type="button" data-toggle="collapse" data-target="#navbarMenu" aria-controls="navbarMenu" aria-expanded="false" aria-label="Toggle navigation"> <span class="navbar-toggler-icon"></span> </button> <div class="w-100"> <div class="d-none d-lg-flex flex-row-reverse"> <form method="get" action="https://waset.org/search" class="form-inline my-2 my-lg-0"> <input class="form-control mr-sm-2" type="search" placeholder="Search Conferences" value="" name="q" aria-label="Search"> <button class="btn btn-light my-2 my-sm-0" type="submit"><i class="fas fa-search"></i></button> </form> </div> <div class="collapse navbar-collapse mt-1" id="navbarMenu"> <ul class="navbar-nav ml-auto align-items-center" id="mainNavMenu"> <li class="nav-item"> <a class="nav-link" href="https://waset.org/conferences" title="Conferences in 2024/2025/2026">Conferences</a> </li> <li class="nav-item"> <a class="nav-link" href="https://waset.org/disciplines" title="Disciplines">Disciplines</a> </li> <li class="nav-item"> <a class="nav-link" href="https://waset.org/committees" rel="nofollow">Committees</a> </li> <li class="nav-item dropdown"> <a class="nav-link dropdown-toggle" href="#" id="navbarDropdownPublications" role="button" data-toggle="dropdown" aria-haspopup="true" aria-expanded="false"> Publications </a> <div class="dropdown-menu" aria-labelledby="navbarDropdownPublications"> <a class="dropdown-item" href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts">Abstracts</a> <a class="dropdown-item" href="https://publications.waset.org">Periodicals</a> <a class="dropdown-item" href="https://publications.waset.org/archive">Archive</a> </div> </li> <li class="nav-item"> <a class="nav-link" href="https://waset.org/page/support" title="Support">Support</a> </li> </ul> </div> </div> </nav> </div> </header> <main> <div class="container mt-4"> <div class="row"> <div class="col-md-9 mx-auto"> <form method="get" action="https://publications.waset.org/search"> <div id="custom-search-input"> <div class="input-group"> <i class="fas fa-search"></i> <input type="text" class="search-query" name="q" placeholder="Author, Title, Abstract, Keywords" value=""> <input type="submit" class="btn_search" value="Search"> </div> </div> </form> </div> </div> <div class="row mt-3"> <div class="col-sm-3"> <div class="card"> <div class="card-body"><strong>Commenced</strong> in January 2007</div> </div> </div> <div class="col-sm-3"> <div class="card"> <div class="card-body"><strong>Frequency:</strong> Monthly</div> </div> </div> <div class="col-sm-3"> <div class="card"> <div class="card-body"><strong>Edition:</strong> International</div> </div> </div> <div class="col-sm-3"> <div class="card"> <div class="card-body"><strong>Paper Count:</strong> 33093</div> </div> </div> </div> <div class="card publication-listing mt-3 mb-3"> <h5 class="card-header" style="font-size:.9rem">Climate Change in Albania and Its Effect on Cereal Yield</h5> <div class="card-body"> <p class="card-text"><strong>Authors:</strong> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/search?q=L.%20Basha">L. Basha</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/search?q=E.%20Gjika"> E. Gjika</a> </p> <p class="card-text"><strong>Abstract:</strong></p> <p>This study is focused on analyzing climate change in Albania and its potential effects on cereal yields. Initially, monthly temperature and rainfalls in Albania were studied for the period 1960-2021. Climacteric variables are important variables when trying to model cereal yield behavior, especially when significant changes in weather conditions are observed. For this purpose, in the second part of the study, linear and nonlinear models explaining cereal yield are constructed for the same period, 1960-2021. The multiple linear regression analysis and lasso regression method are applied to the data between cereal yield and each independent variable: average temperature, average rainfall, fertilizer consumption, arable land, land under cereal production, and nitrous oxide emissions. In our regression model, heteroscedasticity is not observed, data follow a normal distribution, and there is a low correlation between factors, so we do not have the problem of multicollinearity. Machine learning methods, such as Random Forest (RF), are used to predict cereal yield responses to climacteric and other variables. RF showed high accuracy compared to the other statistical models in the prediction of cereal yield. We found that changes in average temperature negatively affect cereal yield. The coefficients of fertilizer consumption, arable land, and land under cereal production are positively affecting production. Our results show that the RF method is an effective and versatile machine-learning method for cereal yield prediction compared to the other two methods: multiple linear regression and lasso regression method.</p> <iframe src="https://publications.waset.org/10013492.pdf" style="width:100%; height:400px;" frameborder="0"></iframe> <p class="card-text"><strong>Keywords:</strong> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/search?q=Cereal%20yield" title="Cereal yield">Cereal yield</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/search?q=climate%20change" title=" climate change"> climate change</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/search?q=machine%20learning" title=" machine learning"> machine learning</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/search?q=multiple%20regression%20model" title=" multiple regression model"> multiple regression model</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/search?q=random%20forest." title=" random forest."> random forest.</a> </p> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/10013492/climate-change-in-albania-and-its-effect-on-cereal-yield" class="btn btn-primary btn-sm">Procedia</a> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/10013492/apa" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="btn btn-primary btn-sm">APA</a> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/10013492/bibtex" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="btn btn-primary btn-sm">BibTeX</a> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/10013492/chicago" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="btn btn-primary btn-sm">Chicago</a> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/10013492/endnote" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="btn btn-primary btn-sm">EndNote</a> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/10013492/harvard" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="btn btn-primary btn-sm">Harvard</a> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/10013492/json" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="btn btn-primary btn-sm">JSON</a> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/10013492/mla" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="btn btn-primary btn-sm">MLA</a> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/10013492/ris" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="btn btn-primary btn-sm">RIS</a> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/10013492/xml" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="btn btn-primary btn-sm">XML</a> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/10013492/iso690" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="btn btn-primary btn-sm">ISO 690</a> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/10013492.pdf" target="_blank" class="btn btn-primary btn-sm">PDF</a> <span class="bg-info text-light px-1 py-1 float-right rounded"> Downloads <span class="badge badge-light">247</span> </span> <p class="card-text"><strong>References:</strong></p> <br>[1] D. 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