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The Political Economy of Fertility - ProMarket
<!doctype html > <!--[if IE 8]> <html class="ie8" lang="en"> <![endif]--> <!--[if IE 9]> <html class="ie9" lang="en"> <![endif]--> <!--[if gt IE 8]><!--> <html lang="en-US"> <!--<![endif]--> <head> <title>The Political Economy of Fertility - ProMarket</title> <meta charset="UTF-8" /> <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1.0"> <link rel="pingback" href="" /> <!-- Author Meta Tags by Molongui Authorship Pro, visit: https://www.molongui.com/authorship/ --> <meta name="author" content="Matthew Lucky"> <!-- /Molongui Authorship --> <meta name='robots' content='index, follow, max-image-preview:large, max-snippet:-1, max-video-preview:-1' /> <link rel="icon" type="image/png" href="https://www.promarket.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/favicon.png"><link rel="apple-touch-icon" sizes="76x76" href="https://whigdevelop.it/promarket/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/promarket-logo-bookmarklet.png"/><link rel="apple-touch-icon" sizes="120x120" href="https://whigdevelop.it/promarket/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/promarket-logo-bookmarklet-120.png"/><link rel="apple-touch-icon" sizes="152x152" href="https://whigdevelop.it/promarket/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/promarket-logo-bookmarklet-152.png"/><link rel="apple-touch-icon" sizes="114x114" href="https://whigdevelop.it/promarket/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/promarket-logo-bookmarklet-2.png"/><link rel="apple-touch-icon" sizes="144x144" href="https://whigdevelop.it/promarket/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/promarket-logo-bookmarklet-144.png"/> <!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v20.10 - https://yoast.com/wordpress/plugins/seo/ --> <link rel="canonical" href="https://www.promarket.org/2024/11/21/the-political-economy-of-fertility/" /> <meta property="og:locale" content="en_US" /> <meta property="og:type" content="article" /> <meta property="og:title" content="The Political Economy of Fertility - ProMarket" /> <meta property="og:description" content="Stigler Center Assistant Director of Programs Matthew Lucky traces the history of ideas about population growth and its relation to welfare from Malthusian concerns of a population bomb to contemporary studies correlating declining birth rates in developed countries with increased investments in human capital and GDP per capita. Scholars now debate what it means for a society to have populations that do not simply stop growing, but rapidly shrink." /> <meta property="og:url" content="https://www.promarket.org/2024/11/21/the-political-economy-of-fertility/" /> <meta property="og:site_name" content="ProMarket" /> <meta property="article:publisher" content="https://www.facebook.com/StiglerCenter/" /> <meta property="article:published_time" content="2024-11-21T10:45:00+00:00" /> <meta property="article:modified_time" content="2024-11-21T14:51:26+00:00" /> <meta property="og:image" content="https://www.promarket.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/Lucky.jpg" /> <meta property="og:image:width" content="1200" /> <meta property="og:image:height" content="675" /> <meta property="og:image:type" content="image/jpeg" /> <meta name="author" content="Matthew Lucky" /> <meta name="twitter:card" content="summary_large_image" /> <meta name="twitter:creator" content="@ProMarket_org" /> <meta name="twitter:site" content="@ProMarket_org" /> <meta name="twitter:label1" content="Written by" /> <meta name="twitter:data1" content="Matthew Lucky" /> <meta name="twitter:label2" content="Est. reading time" /> <meta name="twitter:data2" content="11 minutes" /> <script type="application/ld+json" class="yoast-schema-graph">{"@context":"https://schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"Article","@id":"https://www.promarket.org/2024/11/21/the-political-economy-of-fertility/#article","isPartOf":{"@id":"https://www.promarket.org/2024/11/21/the-political-economy-of-fertility/"},"author":{"name":"Matthew Lucky","@id":"https://www.promarket.org/#/schema/person/283d39ce2ca134f3950b98d5096f07c1"},"headline":"The Political Economy of Fertility","datePublished":"2024-11-21T10:45:00+00:00","dateModified":"2024-11-21T14:51:26+00:00","mainEntityOfPage":{"@id":"https://www.promarket.org/2024/11/21/the-political-economy-of-fertility/"},"wordCount":2438,"publisher":{"@id":"https://www.promarket.org/#organization"},"image":{"@id":"https://www.promarket.org/2024/11/21/the-political-economy-of-fertility/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https://www.promarket.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/Lucky.jpg","keywords":["Capitalisn't","political Economy of Fertility","Population Bomb","Population Growth","Thomas Malthus"],"articleSection":["Commentary","Culture & Society","Development"],"inLanguage":"en-US"},{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https://www.promarket.org/2024/11/21/the-political-economy-of-fertility/","url":"https://www.promarket.org/2024/11/21/the-political-economy-of-fertility/","name":"The Political Economy of Fertility - 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He received his PhD in Political Science from Indiana University and holds master's and bachelor's degrees from Arizona State University. His research focuses on the intersection of democratic theory and science & technology studies. A central point of focus for his scholarship is the incorporation of artificial intelligence into state bureaucracies and the public sphere. Matt’s research has been published in Political Theory and the Marcusean Mind, and he has taught courses in government at Indiana University.","url":"https://www.promarket.org/author/matthew_lucky/"}]}</script> <!-- / Yoast SEO plugin. --> <link rel='dns-prefetch' href='//www.googletagmanager.com' /> <link rel='dns-prefetch' href='//fonts.googleapis.com' /> <link rel="alternate" type="application/rss+xml" title="ProMarket » Feed" href="https://www.promarket.org/feed/" /> <link rel="alternate" type="application/rss+xml" title="ProMarket » Comments Feed" href="https://www.promarket.org/comments/feed/" /> <script type="text/javascript"> /* <![CDATA[ */ window._wpemojiSettings = {"baseUrl":"https:\/\/s.w.org\/images\/core\/emoji\/14.0.0\/72x72\/","ext":".png","svgUrl":"https:\/\/s.w.org\/images\/core\/emoji\/14.0.0\/svg\/","svgExt":".svg","source":{"concatemoji":"https:\/\/www.promarket.org\/wp-includes\/js\/wp-emoji-release.min.js?ver=6.4.3"}}; /*! 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href="https://www.promarket.org/category/international-economics/development/" data-wpel-link="internal"><span class="tdb-cat-bg"></span>Development</a></div></div><div class="td_block_wrap tdb_title tdi_60 tdb-single-title td-pb-border-top td_block_template_2" data-td-block-uid="tdi_60" > <style>.tdi_60{margin-bottom:5px!important}@media (max-width:767px){.tdi_60{margin-bottom:0px!important}}</style> <style>.tdb_title{margin-bottom:19px}.tdb_title.tdb-content-horiz-center{text-align:center}.tdb_title.tdb-content-horiz-center .tdb-title-line{margin:0 auto}.tdb_title.tdb-content-horiz-right{text-align:right}.tdb_title.tdb-content-horiz-right 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.tdb-author-name:hover{color:#800000}</style><div class="tdb-block-inner td-fix-index"><div class="tdb-author-name-wrap"><span class="tdb-author-by">By</span> <a class="tdb-author-name" href="https://www.promarket.org/author/matthew_lucky/" data-wpel-link="internal">Matthew Lucky</a></div></div></div><div class="td_block_wrap tdb_single_date tdi_67 td-pb-border-top td_block_template_2 tdb-post-meta" data-td-block-uid="tdi_67" > <style>.tdi_67{margin-left:10px!important;padding-bottom:2px!important}</style> <style>.tdb_single_date{line-height:30px}.tdb_single_date a{vertical-align:middle}.tdb_single_date .tdb-date-icon-svg{position:relative;line-height:0}.tdb_single_date svg{height:auto}.tdb_single_date svg,.tdb_single_date svg *{fill:#444}.tdi_67{display:inline-block;font-family:Montserrat!important;font-size:13px!important;line-height:20px!important;font-style:italic!important;font-weight:400!important;text-transform:capitalize!important}.tdi_67 svg{width:14px}.tdi_67 .tdb-date-icon{margin-right:5px}</style><div class="tdb-block-inner td-fix-index"><time class="entry-date updated td-module-date" datetime="2024-11-21T05:45:00-05:00">November 21, 2024</time></div></div> <!-- ./block --></div></div></div><div class="vc_column_inner tdi_69 wpb_column vc_column_container tdc-inner-column td-pb-span4"> <style scoped>.tdi_69{vertical-align:baseline}.tdi_69 .vc_column-inner>.wpb_wrapper,.tdi_69 .vc_column-inner>.wpb_wrapper .tdc-elements{display:block}.tdi_69 .vc_column-inner>.wpb_wrapper .tdc-elements{width:100%}@media (min-width:768px) and (max-width:1018px){.tdi_69{width:100%!important}}</style><div class="vc_column-inner"><div class="wpb_wrapper" ><div class="td_block_wrap tdb_single_post_share tdi_70 td-pb-border-top td_block_template_2" data-td-block-uid="tdi_70" > <style>.tdi_70{border-style:none!important;border-color:#888888!important;border-width:0!important}@media (min-width:1019px) and 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.tdb-caption-text{z-index:1;text-align:left;font-size:11px;font-style:italic;font-weight:normal;line-height:17px;color:#444}.tdb_single_featured_image.tdb-content-horiz-center .tdb-caption-text{text-align:center;left:0;right:0;margin-left:auto;margin-right:auto}.tdb_single_featured_image.tdb-content-horiz-right .tdb-caption-text{text-align:right;left:auto;right:0}.tdb-no-featured-img{background-color:#f1f1f1;width:100%;height:500px}.tdb-no-featured-audio{height:59px}.tdi_71 .td-audio-player{font-size:12px}.tdi_71 .tdb-caption-text{margin:6px 0 0;font-family:Montserrat!important}.tdi_71:hover .tdb-block-inner:before{opacity:0}</style><div class="tdb-block-inner td-fix-index"><figure> <img width="1068" height="580" class="entry-thumb" src="https://www.promarket.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/Lucky-1068x580.jpg" alt="" title="Lucky" /> <figcaption class="tdb-caption-text">Stephanie Kim/ProMarket</figcaption></figure></div></div><div class="vc_row_inner tdi_73 vc_row vc_inner wpb_row td-pb-row" > <style scoped>.tdi_73{position:relative!important;top:0;transform:none;-webkit-transform:none}.tdi_73,.tdi_73 .tdc-inner-columns{display:block}.tdi_73 .tdc-inner-columns{width:100%}@media (min-width:768px){.tdi_73{margin-left:-15px;margin-right:-15px}.tdi_73>.vc_column_inner,.tdi_73>.tdc-inner-columns>.vc_column_inner{padding-left:15px;padding-right:15px}}@media (min-width:1019px) and (max-width:1140px){@media (min-width:768px){.tdi_73{margin-left:-10px;margin-right:-10px}.tdi_73>.vc_column_inner,.tdi_73>.tdc-inner-columns>.vc_column_inner{padding-left:10px;padding-right:10px}}}@media (min-width:768px) and (max-width:1018px){@media (min-width:768px){.tdi_73{margin-left:-10px;margin-right:-10px}.tdi_73>.vc_column_inner,.tdi_73>.tdc-inner-columns>.vc_column_inner{padding-left:10px;padding-right:10px}}}@media (max-width:767px){.tdi_73{width:100%!important}}</style><div class="vc_column_inner tdi_75 wpb_column vc_column_container tdc-inner-column td-pb-span4"> <style scoped>.tdi_75{vertical-align:baseline}.tdi_75 .vc_column-inner>.wpb_wrapper,.tdi_75 .vc_column-inner>.wpb_wrapper .tdc-elements{display:block}.tdi_75 .vc_column-inner>.wpb_wrapper .tdc-elements{width:100%}@media (min-width:768px) and (max-width:1018px){.tdi_75{display:none!important}}@media (max-width:767px){.tdi_75{display:none!important}}</style><div class="vc_column-inner"><div class="wpb_wrapper" > <!-- MOLONGUI AUTHORSHIP PLUGIN 4.7.7 --> <!-- https://www.molongui.com/authorship/ --> <div class="molongui-clearfix"></div> <div id="mab-2677234355" class="m-a-box " data-is-shortcode="yes" data-plugin-release="4.7.7" data-plugin-version="pro" data-box-layout="slim" data-box-position="below" data-multiauthor="false" data-author-id="1459" data-author-type="user" data-author-archived=""> <div class="m-a-box-container"> <div class="m-a-box-tab m-a-box-content m-a-box-profile" data-profile-layout="layout-1" data-author-ref="user-1459" itemscope itemid="https://www.promarket.org/author/matthew_lucky/" itemtype="https://schema.org/Person" > <div class="m-a-box-content-top"> </div><!-- End of .m-a-box-content-top --> <div class="m-a-box-content-middle"> <!-- Author picture --> <div class="m-a-box-item m-a-box-avatar" data-source="local"> <a class="m-a-box-avatar-url" href="https://www.promarket.org/author/matthew_lucky/" data-wpel-link="internal"> <img width="150" height="150" src="https://www.promarket.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/LuckyFall2020-150x150.jpeg" class="avatar avatar-150 photo" alt="" decoding="async" loading="lazy" srcset="https://www.promarket.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/LuckyFall2020-150x150.jpeg 150w, https://www.promarket.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/LuckyFall2020-70x70.jpeg 70w, https://www.promarket.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/LuckyFall2020-120x120.jpeg 120w, https://www.promarket.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/LuckyFall2020-24x24.jpeg 24w, https://www.promarket.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/LuckyFall2020-48x48.jpeg 48w, https://www.promarket.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/LuckyFall2020-96x96.jpeg 96w, https://www.promarket.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/LuckyFall2020-300x300.jpeg 300w" sizes="(max-width: 150px) 100vw, 150px" /> </a> </div> <!-- Author social --> <!-- Author data --> <div class="m-a-box-item m-a-box-data"> <!-- Author name --> <div class="m-a-box-name m-a-box-title"> <h5 itemprop="name"> <a class="m-a-box-name-url molongui-remove-underline" href="https://www.promarket.org/author/matthew_lucky/" itemprop="url" data-wpel-link="internal"> Matthew Lucky </a> </h5> </div> <!-- Author metadata --> <div class="m-a-box-item m-a-box-meta"> </div><!-- End of .m-a-box-meta --> <!-- Author bio --> <div class="m-a-box-bio" itemprop="description"> <p>Matthew Lucky is the assistant director of programs at the Stigler Center at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business. He received his PhD in Political Science from Indiana University and holds master's and bachelor's degrees from Arizona State University. His research focuses on the intersection of democratic theory and science & technology studies. A central point of focus for his scholarship is the incorporation of artificial intelligence into state bureaucracies and the public sphere. 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<p style="font-size:15px">Stigler Center Assistant Director of Programs Matthew Lucky traces the history of ideas about population growth and its relation to welfare from Malthusian concerns of a population bomb to contemporary studies correlating declining birth rates in developed countries with increased investments in human capital and GDP per capita. Scholars now debate what it means for a society to have populations that do not simply stop growing, but rapidly shrink.</p> <p style="font-size:15px">This article is being published in coordination with the release of <a href="https://www.capitalisnt.com/episodes/the-fertility-crisis-capitalisms-next-challenge" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener external" data-wpel-link="external">today’s <em>Capitalisn’t</em> episode</a> with Sir Niall Ferguson. See here for his discussion with hosts Bethany McLean and Luigi Zingales about why he worries about the social and economic consequences of a shrinking population.</p> <hr class="wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity"/> <p class="has-drop-cap">The study of the relationship between population and economic growth gained traction in the late-18th century with the publication of Thomas Malthus’ <a href="https://math.uchicago.edu/~shmuel/Modeling/Malthus,%20An%20essay%20on%20the%20principle%20of%20population.pdf" data-wpel-link="external" target="_blank" rel="external noopener noreferrer">work</a> predicting that population growth would lead to increased poverty. Malthus’ hypothesis failed to predict future trends, but scholars have since struggled to understand what changes in birth rates and population growth mean for society. This article will first survey the history of these ideas before reviewing contemporary debates and concerns.</p> <figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-spotify wp-block-embed-spotify wp-embed-aspect-21-9 wp-has-aspect-ratio"><div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper"> <iframe title="Spotify Embed: The Fertility Crisis: Capitalism&apos;s Next Challenge, with Sir Niall Ferguson" style="border-radius: 12px" width="100%" height="152" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen allow="autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; fullscreen; picture-in-picture" loading="lazy" src="https://open.spotify.com/embed/episode/1cmBS01m5Jl23jumv9DtBz?si=-2bSjU7kSC22H46b7SjmVQ&utm_source=oembed"></iframe> </div></figure> <p><strong><em>Malthus and Marx</em></strong></p> <p>In his famous 1798 work “An Essay on the Principle of Population,” English economist Thomas Malthus held that populations grow faster than their ability to produce food. If we assume an initial condition of “easy support,” wherein the means of food production are sufficient to a population’s current requirements, then that population is <a href="https://math.uchicago.edu/~shmuel/Modeling/Malthus,%20An%20essay%20on%20the%20principle%20of%20population.pdf" data-wpel-link="external" target="_blank" rel="external noopener noreferrer">predicted to grow until</a> “the food therefore which before supported seven millions must now be divided among seven millions and a half or eight millions. The poor consequently must live much worse.” The problem here is not that we can never increase food production, but that unconstrained fertility outpaces those improvements, leaving us perennially trapped with more mouths to feed than meals to go around. During this “season of distress,” poverty will constrain fertility. This interval of suppressed fertility <a href="https://math.uchicago.edu/~shmuel/Modeling/Malthus,%20An%20essay%20on%20the%20principle%20of%20population.pdf" data-wpel-link="external" target="_blank" rel="external noopener noreferrer">allows the means of food production to catch up</a> to the demands of the population, such that “the situation of the laborer being then again tolerably comfortable, the restraints to population [growth] are in some degree loosened.” Finally, this return to unrestrained fertility leads population growth to once again outpace food production, hence causing this cycle to repeat. In sum, Malthus provides a model of feedback loops between fertility and food production that inhibit progress in living standards.</p> <p>In the first volume of his magnum opus, <em>Capital</em>, Karl Marx contests Malthus’ pessimistic fertility model. He argues that the “extra” people whom Malthus worried would diminish the resources available for the total population was not a corrective byproduct of growth that would keep growth in check but actually the engine of capitalist growth. Marx <a href="https://www.marxists.org/archive/marx/works/download/pdf/Capital-Volume-I.pdf" data-wpel-link="external" target="_blank" rel="external noopener noreferrer">wrote in 1867</a>, a time when England had undergone industrialization and moved beyond the agrarian economy of Malthus’ England, that “a surplus population of workers is a necessary product of accumulation or of the development of wealth on a capitalist basis…[the surplus population] forms a disposable industrial reserve army.” According to Marx, capitalism, through labor-saving machinery and increasingly sophisticated production methods, produces a mass of unemployed workers who exist as that “industrial reserve army.” That reserve army pushes down wages and stands ready to enroll in new capitalist enterprises. Hence, the unemployed masses are a consequence of capitalism and technological change, rather than merely overactive fertility. Furthermore, the unemployed masses are a fillip to capital accumulation and thus economic growth. For Marx, the concern about these “extra” persons was not that they would drag down the rest of society but that these extra people suffered due to the capitalist relations of production that required a mass of unemployed people to benefit the bourgeois factory owners. This concern over superfluous people, in either Malthus’s or Marx’s formulation, carried over into 20th-century thought.</p> <p><strong><em>Malthus in the 20th century</em></strong></p> <p>Paul Ehrlich’s 1968 <a href="https://www.amazon.com/Population-Bomb-Paul-R-Ehrlich/dp/B000EI3XOS" data-wpel-link="external" target="_blank" rel="external noopener noreferrer"><em>The Population Bomb</em></a> (in)famously reinvigorated Mathus’ worries about catastrophic population growth outstripping Earth’s carrying capacity. Ehrlich advised that the United States should impose a system of tax incentives to encourage smaller families and voluntary sterilization. At the international level, he recommended a strategy of global triage to determine which countries might be saved with aid and population controls and which countries must lamentably be sacrificed, in Ehrlich’s prediction, to inevitable mass famine, death, and likely cannibalism. <em>The Population Bomb</em> was illustrative of the intellectual milieu of the mid-20th century that produced international policy efforts to constrain population growth characterized by, for instance, sterilization campaigns in the developing world and China’s one-child policy.</p> <p>Ehrlich’s work is remembered as the standard-bearer of neo-Malthusianism, but <a href="https://miltonfriedman.hoover.org/internal/media/dispatcher/215127/full" data-wpel-link="external" target="_blank" rel="external noopener noreferrer">Milton Friedman had already echoed</a> in 1946 a Malthusian assessment when discussing international aid to developing nations, saying, “we may simply give a basis for increased population growth in those countries, if we do nothing to create institutions unfavorable to population growth. In the long-run, gifts and grants may have the effect of simply impoverishing all.” For Friedman, the conditions that would inhibit population growth lacking in developing countries included industrialized urban economies and high literacy rates. <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KH0O_JjH06k&ab_channel=LibertyPen" data-wpel-link="external" target="_blank" rel="external noopener noreferrer">Speaking later in 1977</a>, Friedman added that while “[Malthusian concerns were] very real in some parts of the world,” by the 1970s the declining fertility rates in wealthy nations, including the U.S., rendered domestic worries moot. He was then critical of the idea that the state should intervene either to increase or decrease fertility. In his estimation, leaving families to self-regulate their reproduction independent of state interventions would result in an optimal population size.</p> <p>A decade later, Friedrich Hayek wrote in his 1988 book <em>The Fatal Conceit</em> that “the modern idea that population growth threatens worldwide pauperization is simply a mistake. It is largely a consequence of oversimplifying the Malthusian theory of population.” To wit, Maltus’ observations are historically bounded and subsequent technological and economic advancements have rendered Malthus, and by extension his 20th-century kin, irrelevant. Indeed, Hayek takes population growth as an indicator of a virtuous cycle where population growth leads to greater economic growth producing further population increases. </p> <p><strong><em>Explaining the Demographic Transition</em></strong></p> <p><em>Quantity vs quality</em></p> <p>Humanity began a series of demographic transitions in the 20th century starting in Western developed nations. Specifically, those demographic transitions entailed 1) increasing life spans (in <a href="https://www.statista.com/statistics/1040079/life-expectancy-united-states-all-time/" data-wpel-link="external" target="_blank" rel="external noopener noreferrer">the U.S.</a> they have grown from 67 years in 1950 to 78 in 2020) accompanied by 2) a subsequent decline in birth rates (<a href="https://datacommons.org/place/country/USA?utm_medium=explore&mprop=fertilityRate&popt=Person&cpv=gender,Female&hl=en" data-wpel-link="external" target="_blank" rel="external noopener noreferrer">in the U.S.</a>, they have fallen from 3.65 per woman in 1960 to 1.66 in 2022). This demographic transition has sparked among economists a reversal in concerns from the consequences of a population bomb toward economic worries about a future defined by steep global population decline. </p> <p>However, the economic consequences of declining birth rates are far from clear. This demographic transition has inverted the historical pattern linking fertility and economic growth. As Adam Smith <a href="https://www.marxists.org/reference/archive/smith-adam/works/wealth-of-nations/book01/ch08.htm" data-wpel-link="external" target="_blank" rel="external noopener noreferrer">wrote</a> in 1776 in <em>Wealth of Nations</em>, “[t]he most decisive mark of the prosperity of any country is the increase of the number of its inhabitants.” Increased production and higher fertility were previously taken as correlated. Now declining fertility rates correlate with rises in GDP and GDP per capita. </p> <p>In 1960, Gary Becker <a href="https://www.nber.org/system/files/chapters/c2387/c2387.pdf" data-wpel-link="external" target="_blank" rel="external noopener noreferrer">theorized</a> that children could be interpreted as a luxury consumer good in developed nations, rather than, say, an input for farm output. Thus, in that context increases in demand for children began to manifest as larger investments in the “quality” (e.g. education) of a smaller set of children, rather than investing less, per capita, in a larger quantity of children. </p> <p>Becker <a href="https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/pdf/10.1086/261723" data-wpel-link="external" target="_blank" rel="external noopener noreferrer">would later argue</a> that as the stock of human capital (i.e. skills or knowledge of a worker) increases, so do the returns on investing in human capital. “This leads to multiple steady states: an undeveloped steady state with little human capital and low rates of return on investments in human capital, and a developed steady state with much higher rates of return and a large and perhaps growing stock of human capital.” Hence, in a developed economy where it pays to invest in the quality of your children, parents prioritize greater investments in fewer younglings. </p> <p>Plenty of scholarship has since bolstered Becker’s theories. In 1982, <a href="https://archive.org/details/theoryoffertilit0000cald/page/n7/mode/2up" data-wpel-link="external" target="_blank" rel="external noopener noreferrer">John Caldwell suggested</a> that in traditional societies, children throughout their lifetimes contribute more to their parents’ economic well-being, and thus there is an incentive toward larger families. In modern societies, that wealth flow inverts, with parents contributing more resources to their children, and hence there is an incentive structure favoring lower fertility. </p> <p>More recently, a <a href="https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w29948/w29948.pdf" data-wpel-link="external" target="_blank" rel="external noopener noreferrer">2022 paper</a> from Matthias Doepke, Anne Hannusch, Fabian Kindermann, and Michèle Tertilt noted “in the U.S., a trend towards educating children started particularly early, and coincided with a decline in fertility. Such patterns support the idea of a quantity-quality tradeoff.” As Oded Galor recounts in <a href="https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/679024/the-journey-of-humanity-by-oded-galor/" data-wpel-link="external" target="_blank" rel="external noopener noreferrer"><em>The Journey of Humanity</em></a>, technological progress in the Industrial Revolution, for instance in the British cotton industry, automated away many of the simple tasks best suited to unskilled child labor, while alongside that trend was a rise in “occupations in manufacturing, trade and services [that] now required the abilities to read and write, perform basic arithmetic operations, and conduct a range of mechanical skills.” The net effect of those trends was that the labor market demand for unskilled child labor decreased alongside a rise in demand for more highly educated people (“higher quality” children) in the 20th century. Parents, then, responded by adopting family-planning strategies to meet that demand. </p> <p><em>Women’s labor force participation</em></p> <p>There is also ample literature linking fertility rates with women’s labor force participation and the attendant technological, cultural, and legal changes. In the <a href="https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w29948/w29948.pdf" data-wpel-link="external" target="_blank" rel="external noopener noreferrer">same aforementioned paper</a>, Doepke et al. propose that child-rearing is incredibly time-intensive and that women face significant opportunity costs between education/employment and parenting. Further, as the gender wage gap narrows, the opportunity costs of labor in the market versus in the household become steeper. In a <a href="https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/340778" data-wpel-link="external" target="_blank" rel="external noopener noreferrer">2002 study</a>, Claudia Goldin and Lawrence Katz took advantage of the uneven rollout of access to oral contraceptives in the U.S. to demonstrate their impact on women’s decisions concerning marriage, family formation, education, and employment. They found that young women gaining legal access to oral contraceptives “increase[d] in the age at first marriage and also led to an increase in the fraction of women entering professional school and ending up in professional careers [law and medicine].” Put simply, when women are afforded the capacity to plan family formation, they are more likely to invest in their human capital and careers. Similarly, Martha Bailey <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4203450/#S23title" data-wpel-link="external" target="_blank" rel="external noopener noreferrer">showed</a> in 2013 that parental access to contraception pays long-term benefits to their children in terms of educational attainment, workforce participation, and income. That is, the ability of a parent to plan their families is also correlated with greater investments in the quality of those children. In additional work, and <a href="https://pubs.aeaweb.org/doi/pdfplus/10.1257/app.4.3.225" data-wpel-link="external" target="_blank" rel="external noopener noreferrer">Martha J. Bailey, Brad Hershbein, and Amalia R. Miller (2012) </a> and <a href="https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/aer.104.4.1091" data-wpel-link="external" target="_blank" rel="external noopener noreferrer">Goldin (2014)</a> have shown that the persistence of gender pay gaps within many professions can be attributed to the penalties mothers face through choosing between competing career and parenting requirements. A throughline that emerges in this body of research is that work today is not configured to be compatible with parenting.</p> <p><strong><em>The Consequences of Declining Fertility</em></strong></p> <p>Within the uneven movement of the demographic transition, <a href="https://www.rand.org/pubs/monograph_reports/MR1274.html#:~:text=The%20authors%2C%20led%20by%20Harvard,market%20policies%20are%20in%20place." data-wpel-link="external" target="_blank" rel="external noopener noreferrer">David Bloom, David Canning, and Jaypee Sevilla</a> identified in a 2003 <a href="https://www.rand.org/pubs/monograph_reports/MR1274.html#:~:text=The%20authors%2C%20led%20by%20Harvard,market%20policies%20are%20in%20place." data-wpel-link="external" target="_blank" rel="external noopener noreferrer">Rand report</a> a window of opportunity for a nation to realize a “demographic dividend” from a declining birthrate before sliding into an economically regressive aging and shrinking population. The authors contend that the initial decline in mortality rates (especially among the young), followed by a later declining fertility, creates a temporary generational bulge when a disproportionately large share of the population will be in their prime working years supporting a disproportionately smaller retired generation. Societies that invest early in education and infrastructure can accordingly exploit the generational dividend for rapid economic growth, which the authors cite was an ingredient in the success of the Asia Tigers.</p> <p>Once the window of opportunity for the demographic dividend passes, we are in the realm of declining populations and fertility. The economic consequences of this change in fertility are contested. Sir <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2024-03-10/global-population-collapse-isn-t-sci-fi-anymore-niall-ferguson" data-wpel-link="external" target="_blank" rel="external noopener noreferrer">Niall Ferguson</a> has raised alarm bells about global population decline, noting that we should anticipate a future of “low economic growth, empty schools, crowded retirement homes, [and] a general lack of youthful vitality” as people currently in their prime working years age out of the workforce and ever smaller generations replace them in the economy. In the long run, Ferguson muses, humanity appears to be choosing extinction. Charles Jones, in like fashion, argued in <a href="https://web.stanford.edu/~chadj/emptyplanet.pdf" data-wpel-link="external" target="_blank" rel="external noopener noreferrer">a 2022 paper</a> that a declining population will hinder innovation as fewer people translates into fewer new ideas. Hence, technoscience may not save us from the “Empty Planet” future, in his terminology, because a shrinking population will produce fewer innovations and be less capable of marshaling extant reserves of scientific knowledge for problem-solving. </p> <p>Not everyone is pessimistic about declining birth rates or populations. In his 2022 book <a href="https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/679024/the-journey-of-humanity-by-oded-galor/" data-wpel-link="external" target="_blank" rel="external noopener noreferrer"><em>The Journey of Humanity</em></a><em>, </em>Oded Galor argues that the Industrial Revolution broke humanity free from the Malthusian world by allowing for the quantity-quality transition in childrearing and the concomitant rise in living standards. Hence, declining fertility is a necessary condition for material flourishing. He adds, “the power of innovation accompanied by fertility decline may carry the inherent potential to reduce the trade-off between economic growth and environmental preservation.” More precisely, Galor cites data suggesting that a population of 50 million with incomes of $10,000 emits far more carbon than a population of 10 million with incomes of $50,000. Thus, shrinking populations can potentially reconcile high material living standards with combating climate change. </p> <p>Finally, Jennifer Scuibba <a href="https://www.amazon.com/Billion-Counting-Death-Migration-Shape/dp/B0B4HTK499" data-wpel-link="external" target="_blank" rel="external noopener noreferrer">notes</a> that traditional economic theories and metrics were developed under conditions of growing populations. Robust GDP growth in a developed economy <a href="https://corporatefinanceinstitute.com/resources/economics/economic-growth-rate/" data-wpel-link="external" target="_blank" rel="external noopener noreferrer">should range</a> on average between 2-3%. But if the overall population is declining, then GDP per capita and individual economic welfare can increase even with less or shrinking growth. </p> <p>So, our ideas have come full circle. Malthus feared population growth would make everyone worse off, and subsequent population declines would make everyone better off again. Only the future can tell if population declines will be a net boon to individual welfare or the source of social demise. </p> <p><em>Author Disclosure: the author reports no conflicts of interest. You can read our disclosure policy </em><a href="https://www.promarket.org/about-this-publication/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener" data-wpel-link="internal"><em>here</em></a><em>.</em></p> <p><em>Articles represent the opinions of their writers, not necessarily those of the University of Chicago, the Booth School of Business, or its faculty.</em></p> <style id="molongui-author-box-shortcode-inline-css" type="text/css"></style><div class='yarpp yarpp-related yarpp-related-website yarpp-template-list'> <!-- YARPP List --> <h3>Related posts:</h3><ol> <li><a href="https://www.promarket.org/2024/02/06/how-companies-should-combat-rage-farming-attempts/" rel="bookmark" title="How Companies Should Combat Rage Farming Attempts" data-wpel-link="internal">How Companies Should Combat Rage Farming Attempts </a></li> <li><a href="https://www.promarket.org/2024/02/13/why-business-should-be-more-prosocial-and-ten-guidelines-for-how/" rel="bookmark" title="Why Business Should Be More 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Cooperation" data-wpel-link="internal">New Game Theory Shows Better Path to Cooperation</a></h3> <div class="td-editor-date"> <span class="td-author-date"> </span> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div class="td_module_flex td_module_flex_1 td_module_wrap td-animation-stack td-cpt-post"> <div class="td-module-container td-category-pos-above"> <div class="td-image-container"> <div class="td-module-thumb"><a href="https://www.promarket.org/2024/11/14/rebuttable-structural-presumptions-improve-merger-review/" rel="bookmark" class="td-image-wrap " title="Rebuttable Structural Presumptions Improve Merger Review" ><span class="entry-thumb td-thumb-css" data-type="css_image" data-img-url="https://www.promarket.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/Lancieri_Valletti-324x400.jpg" ></span></a></div> </div> <div class="td-module-meta-info"> <h3 class="entry-title td-module-title"><a href="https://www.promarket.org/2024/11/14/rebuttable-structural-presumptions-improve-merger-review/" rel="bookmark" title="Rebuttable Structural Presumptions Improve Merger Review" data-wpel-link="internal">Rebuttable Structural Presumptions Improve Merger Review</a></h3> <div class="td-editor-date"> <span class="td-author-date"> </span> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div> <span class="td-page-meta" itemprop="author" itemscope itemtype="https://schema.org/Person"><meta itemprop="name" content="Matthew Lucky"><meta itemprop="url" content="https://www.promarket.org/author/matthew_lucky/"></span><meta itemprop="datePublished" content="2024-11-21T05:45:00-05:00"><meta itemprop="dateModified" content="2024-11-21T09:51:26-05:00"><meta itemscope itemprop="mainEntityOfPage" itemType="https://schema.org/WebPage" itemid="https://www.promarket.org/2024/11/21/the-political-economy-of-fertility/"/><span class="td-page-meta" itemprop="publisher" itemscope itemtype="https://schema.org/Organization"><span class="td-page-meta" itemprop="logo" itemscope 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