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It is also unclear what conditions would lead to PRC nuclear use, since their arsenal is growing and creating more options," Bryan Clark of the Hudson Institute says." /> <meta property="og:site_name" content="Breaking Defense" /><meta property="og:locale" content="en_US" /><meta property="og:title" content="Chinese Nuke Modernization Prompts Shift In DoD Strategy" /><meta property="og:url" content="https://breakingdefense.com/2021/06/chinese-nuke-modernization-prompts-shift-in-dod-strategy/" /><meta property="og:type" content="article" /><meta name="twitter:card" content="summary"> <meta name="og:description" content=""The growing diversity of the Chinese nuclear threat and its mixing in with conventional forces creates complexity for US commanders. It is also unclear what conditions would lead to PRC nuclear use, since their arsenal is growing and creating more options," Bryan Clark of the Hudson Institute says." /> <meta name="twitter:description" content=""The growing diversity of the Chinese nuclear threat and its mixing in with conventional forces creates complexity for US commanders. It is also unclear what conditions would lead to PRC nuclear use, since their arsenal is growing and creating more options," Bryan Clark of the Hudson Institute says." /><meta property="og:image" content="https://breakingdefense.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/3/2019/02/DF-21-missile-and-truck.jpg" /><meta name="twitter:image" content="https://breakingdefense.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/3/2019/02/DF-21-missile-and-truck.jpg" /><link rel="image_src" href="https://breakingdefense.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/3/2019/02/DF-21-missile-and-truck.jpg" />      <script type="application/ld+json"> { "@context": "http://schema.org", "@type": "NewsArticle", "headline": "Chinese Nuke Modernization Prompts Shift In DoD Strategy", "url": "https://breakingdefense.com/2021/06/chinese-nuke-modernization-prompts-shift-in-dod-strategy/", "thumbnailUrl": "https://breakingdefense.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/3/2019/02/DF-21-missile-and-truck.jpg", "image": "https://breakingdefense.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/3/2019/02/DF-21-missile-and-truck.jpg" , "dateCreated": "2021-06-18T16:01:31-04:00", "datePublished": "2021-06-18T16:01:31-04:00", "dateModified": "2021-07-22T10:32:38-04:00", "articleSection": "Global", "creator": [{"@type":"Person","name":"Colin Clark","url":"https:\/\/breakingdefense.com\/author\/colinclark\/"}], "author": [{"@type":"Person","name":"Colin Clark","url":"https:\/\/breakingdefense.com\/author\/colinclark\/"}], "publisher": { "@type": "Organization", "name": "Breaking Defense", "logo": { "@type": "ImageObject", "url": "https://breakingdefense.com/wp-content/themes/breakingdefense/images/logo.png", "width": 540, "height": 132 } }, "keywords": ["Chinese nuclear modernization","deterrence","ICBMs","Mark Milley","Minot North Dakota","nuclear strategy","nuclear weapons","Sen. 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It is also unclear what conditions would lead to PRC nuclear use, since their arsenal is growing and creating more options," Bryan Clark of the Hudson Institute says. </h3> <div class="post-meta-wrap"> <span class="postAuthor"> By   <a href="https://breakingdefense.com/author/colinclark/" title="Posts by Colin Clark" class="author url fn" rel="author">Colin Clark</a> </span> <span class="timestamp"> on June 18, 2021 at 4:01 PM</span> </div> <div class="bm-share__comment-link post-comment-link"> </div> <div class="bm-share__meta meta"> <div class="ea-share-count-wrap before_content"><a href="https://twitter.com/share?url=https://breakingdefense.com/2021/06/chinese-nuke-modernization-prompts-shift-in-dod-strategy/&text=Chinese%20Nuke%20Modernization%20Prompts%20Shift%20In%20DoD%20Strategy" title="Share on Twitter" target="_blank" class="ea-share-count-button style-box ea-share-no-count twitter" data-postid="161984"><span class="ea-share-count-icon-label"><i class="ea-share-count-icon easc-icon-twitter"></i><span class="ea-share-count-label"></span></span><span class="ea-share-count"></span></a><a href="https://www.facebook.com/sharer/sharer.php?u=https://breakingdefense.com/2021/06/chinese-nuke-modernization-prompts-shift-in-dod-strategy/&display=popup&ref=plugin&src=share_button" title="Share on Facebook" target="_blank" class="ea-share-count-button style-box ea-share-no-count facebook" data-postid="161984"><span class="ea-share-count-icon-label"><i class="ea-share-count-icon easc-icon-facebook"></i><span class="ea-share-count-label"></span></span><span class="ea-share-count"></span></a><a href="https://www.linkedin.com/shareArticle?mini=true&url=https://breakingdefense.com/2021/06/chinese-nuke-modernization-prompts-shift-in-dod-strategy/" title="Share on LinkedIn" target="_blank" class="ea-share-count-button style-box ea-share-no-count linkedin" data-postid="161984"><span class="ea-share-count-icon-label"><i class="ea-share-count-icon easc-icon-linkedin"></i><span class="ea-share-count-label"></span></span><span class="ea-share-count"></span></a><a href="#ea-share-count-email" title="Share via Email" class="ea-share-count-button style-box ea-share-no-count email" data-postid="161984"><span class="ea-share-count-icon-label"><i class="ea-share-count-icon easc-icon-envelope"></i><span class="ea-share-count-label"></span></span><span class="ea-share-count"></span></a></div> </div> </div>  <div class="clearfix site-width" id="content" role="main"> <div class="clearfix" id="main"> <div id="mainContent"> <div class="container"> <div id="entry-161984" class="post-161984 post type-post status-publish format-standard has-post-thumbnail hentry category-global category-nuclear-weapons category-pacific category-pentagon category-threats tag-chinese-nuclear-modernization tag-deterrence tag-icbms tag-gen-mark-milley tag-minot-north-dakota tag-nuclear-strategy tag-nuclear-weapons tag-sen-john-hoeven"> <div class="entry"> <div id="attachment_160997" style="width: 835px" class="wp-caption alignnone"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" aria-describedby="caption-attachment-160997" class="size-full wp-image-160997" src="https://breakingdefense.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/3/2021/06/Milley-and-Austin-testify-to-SASC-on-2022-budget.jpg" alt="" width="825" height="550" srcset="https://breakingdefense.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/3/2021/06/Milley-and-Austin-testify-to-SASC-on-2022-budget.jpg 825w, https://breakingdefense.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/3/2021/06/Milley-and-Austin-testify-to-SASC-on-2022-budget-350x233.jpg 350w, https://breakingdefense.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/3/2021/06/Milley-and-Austin-testify-to-SASC-on-2022-budget-225x150.jpg 225w, https://breakingdefense.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/3/2021/06/Milley-and-Austin-testify-to-SASC-on-2022-budget-768x512.jpg 768w" sizes="(max-width: 825px) 100vw, 825px" /><p id="caption-attachment-160997" class="wp-caption-text">Gen. Mark Milley (front) and Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin testify to the SASC.</p></div> <p>WASHINGTON: A short exchange during a Senate hearing on the 2022 budget appears to have revealed what experts say is an important shift in how the Pentagon views the Chinese military and its nuclear forces.</p> <p>“This is a new framing of the<a href="https://breakingdefense.com/tag/nuclear-modernization/"> nuclear modernization</a> and deterrence challenge,” says Bryan Clark, a strategic expert at the Hudson Institute. “The size and capability of our arsenal has not been driven in the past by the PRC’s nuclear forces, but clearly the DoD is beginning to use China as a pacing threat alongside Russia.”</p> <p>It began with a question by Sen. John Hoeven, from the state where Minot Air Force Base houses a substantial portion of the nation’s ICBM nuclear force. The North Dakota lawmaker asked Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and Gen. Mark Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, if the existing US strategic deterrent would remain “credible” if China doubled the size of its nuclear forces.</p> <div class="div-id-for-in-story-youtube-1x1" id="div-id-for-in-story-youtube-1x1"> <script type='text/javascript'> googletag.cmd.push(function () { googletag.display("div-id-for-in-story-youtube-1x1"); }); </script> </div> <p>Here’s Milley’s reply:</p> <p>“If we continue to fully modernize the triad then the US nuclear deterrent is fully adequate to deter any adversary to include China, even if China doubled what they have right now.</p> <div id="attachment_121022" style="width: 310px" class="wp-caption alignleft"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" aria-describedby="caption-attachment-121022" class="size-medium wp-image-121022" src="https://breakingdefense.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/3/2020/10/2020_09_0233_BreakingDefense_headshots_Cheng-e1601654803997-300x300.jpeg" alt="" width="300" height="300" srcset="https://breakingdefense.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/3/2020/10/2020_09_0233_BreakingDefense_headshots_Cheng-e1601654803997-300x300.jpeg 300w, https://breakingdefense.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/3/2020/10/2020_09_0233_BreakingDefense_headshots_Cheng-e1601654803997.jpeg 400w" sizes="(max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px" /><p id="caption-attachment-121022" class="wp-caption-text">Dean Cheng</p></div> <div id="div-id-for-storycontent-300x250"> <script type='text/javascript'> googletag.cmd.push(function () { googletag.display("div-id-for-storycontent-300x250"); }); </script> </div> <p>“There’s no question in my mind, but deterrence, as you know, requires not only the capability and the will but also the communication, and the adversary needs to understand that you have the capability and their will,” Milley replied. “Today, they’re adequate and, I think, once modernized they’ll be adequate in the future. The conventional piece — the nuclear piece and the conventional piece — go hand in hand and it’s a dynamic that works in order to keep great power peace, and it’s very, very important that we retain overmatch relative to China and Russia.”</p> <p>Much of this shift appears to arise from China’s own nuclear modernization plans. SIPRI, which produce the authoritative annual Yearbook on the world’s nuclear forces, in the latest 2021 edition, says: “China is in the middle of a significant modernization and expansion of its nuclear weapon inventory.”</p> <div id="div-id-for-storycontent-2-640x175"> <script type='text/javascript'> googletag.cmd.push(function () { googletag.display("div-id-for-storycontent-2-640x175"); }); </script> </div> <div class="div-id-for-in-story-youtube-1x1" id="div-id-for-in-story-youtube-1x1-bottom"> <script type='text/javascript'> googletag.cmd.push(function () { googletag.display("div-id-for-in-story-youtube-1x1-bottom"); }); </script> </div> <p>Dean Cheng, one of the West’s top experts on the Chinese military, goes further, saying that: “China is now pushing modernization of its nuclear forces, and this calls into question some basic assumptions, including how much fissile material they have. The broad expanse of Chinese nuclear modernization programs, including an air-breathing portion, is very different from what had been seen before.”</p> <div id="attachment_162104" style="width: 730px" class="wp-caption alignnone"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" aria-describedby="caption-attachment-162104" class="size-large wp-image-162104" src="https://breakingdefense.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/3/2021/06/DF-5B-ICBM-at-2015-China-Victory-Day-1024x683.jpg" alt="" width="720" height="480" /><p id="caption-attachment-162104" class="wp-caption-text">DF-5B ICBM at 2015 China Victory Day parade</p></div> <p><a href="https://sipri.org/media/press-release/2021/global-nuclear-arsenals-grow-states-continue-modernize-new-sipri-yearbook-out-now">SIPRI’s 2021 Yearbook</a> says that China has “an estimated total inventory of about 350 nuclear warheads. This is an increase of 30 from the previous year, due largely to the indication that the DF5B intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) can carry more warheads than previously believed. Just over 270 warheads are assigned to China’s operational land- and sea-based ballistic missiles and to nuclear-configured aircraft. The remainder are assigned to non-operational forces, such as new systems in development, operational systems that may increase in number in the future, and reserves.”</p> <p>Combine that with what the Heritage Foundation expert says is a shift in Chinese views of nuclear escalation and nuclear doctrine. For decades China, which has a declared No First Use policy, held to what Cheng calls its “minimal deterrent” posture. The new Chinese view is “towards more of a ‘limited deterrent,’ or beyond. I’ve been asked, for example, about whether the PRC might be adopting a ‘launch-on-warning’ posture, and whether the Chinese are developing the NC3 (nuclear command, control, and communications) capabilities necessary to support this.”</p> <h3><span lang="EN-GB" xml:lang="EN-GB">World nuclear forces, January 2021</span></h3> <table border="0" cellspacing="1" cellpadding="1"> <tbody> <tr> <td><strong>Country</strong></td> <td class="text-align-center"><strong>Deployed warheads*</strong></td> <td class="text-align-center"><strong>Other warheads**</strong></td> <td class="text-align-center"><strong>Total 2021</strong></td> <td class="text-align-center"><strong>Total 2020</strong></td> </tr> <tr> <td>USA</td> <td class="text-align-right">1 800</td> <td class="text-align-right">3 750</td> <td class="text-align-right">5 550</td> <td class="text-align-right">5 800</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Russia</td> <td class="text-align-right">1 625</td> <td class="text-align-right">4 630</td> <td class="text-align-right">6 255</td> <td class="text-align-right">6 375</td> </tr> <tr> <td>UK***</td> <td class="text-align-right">120</td> <td class="text-align-right">105</td> <td class="text-align-right">225</td> <td class="text-align-right">215</td> </tr> <tr> <td>France</td> <td class="text-align-right">280</td> <td class="text-align-right">10</td> <td class="text-align-right">290</td> <td class="text-align-right">290</td> </tr> <tr> <td>China</td> <td></td> <td class="text-align-right">350</td> <td class="text-align-right">350</td> <td class="text-align-right">320</td> </tr> <tr> <td>India</td> <td></td> <td class="text-align-right">156</td> <td class="text-align-right">156</td> <td class="text-align-right">150</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Pakistan</td> <td></td> <td class="text-align-right">165</td> <td class="text-align-right">165</td> <td class="text-align-right">160</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Israel</td> <td></td> <td class="text-align-right">90</td> <td class="text-align-right">90</td> <td class="text-align-right">90</td> </tr> <tr> <td>North Korea****</td> <td class="text-align-right">…</td> <td class="text-align-right">[40–50]</td> <td class="text-align-right">[40–50]</td> <td class="text-align-right">[30–40]</td> </tr> <tr> <td><strong>Total</strong></td> <td class="text-align-right">3 825</td> <td class="text-align-right">9 255</td> <td class="text-align-right">13 080</td> <td class="text-align-right">13 400</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <p><em>Source: SIPRI Yearbook 2021.</em></p> <p>Bryan Clark says Milley’s comments before the Senate Armed Services Committee mark more than a “rhetorical change” for US policy. “The thinking on Russian nuclear weapons use had been that Moscow might escalate and use a small number of weapons to gain an advantage during a conventional confrontation, but this theory has been somewhat discredited. Moreover, there are few plausible situations where the Russian government would feel existentially threatened by NATO and US. In contrast, numerous conventional scenarios could result in the CCP believing the regime was at existential risk and that nuclear escalation was necessary to prevent its collapse.”</p> <div id="attachment_18252" style="width: 250px" class="wp-caption alignright"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" aria-describedby="caption-attachment-18252" class="size-medium wp-image-18252" src="https://breakingdefense.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/3/2015/01/Clark-Bryan-CSBA-240x300.jpg" alt="CSBA photo" width="240" height="300" srcset="https://breakingdefense.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/3/2015/01/Clark-Bryan-CSBA-240x300.jpg 240w, https://breakingdefense.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/3/2015/01/Clark-Bryan-CSBA.jpg 380w" sizes="(max-width: 240px) 100vw, 240px" /><p id="caption-attachment-18252" class="wp-caption-text">Bryan Clark</p></div> <p>China also, according to both Clark and Cheng, does not treat nuclear forces as a separate and unique component of its arsenals. “The growing diversity of the Chinese nuclear threat and its mixing in with conventional forces creates complexity for US commanders. It is also unclear what conditions would lead to PRC nuclear use, since their arsenal is growing and creating more options,” Clark says in an email.</p> <p>That intertwining of capabilities makes it more difficult for the US and others to estimate China’s intentions, they say.</p> <p>“The Chinese intertwining of nuclear and conventional capabilities (best seen in how the DF-21 (missile) has both nuclear and conventional variants OPERATING ALONGSIDE EACH OTHER) also highlights how differently the Chinese look at nuclear deterrence. We and the Russians are much more similar to each other in trying to LIMIT confusion or overlap,” Cheng observes.</p> <p>And then we go back to Milley’s comments. 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href="https://breakingdefense.com/2024/10/take-lessons-learned-from-joint-exercises-and-turn-them-into-capabilities/" class="sponsored-inline__label show-on-tablet">Sponsored</a> </div> <h3 class="sponsored-inline__title show-on-tablet" itemprop="headline"> <a href="https://breakingdefense.com/2024/10/take-lessons-learned-from-joint-exercises-and-turn-them-into-capabilities/" itemprop="url">Enabling seamless operations across land, air, sea, space, and cyber</a> </h3> <div class="sponsored-inline__excerpt standard-excerpt"> <p>The real advantage comes when legacy, new, next generation and cutting-edge systems can work together in the battlespace.</p> </div> <div class="sponsored-inline__byline standard-excerpt"> <span>From  </span> <a href="https://breakingdefense.com/author/breakingdefense/" title="Posts by Breaking Defense" class="author url fn" rel="author">Breaking Defense</a> </div> </div> <div class="sponsored-inline__excerpt sidebar-excerpt"> <p>The real advantage comes when 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