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class="AuthorsByLine_mck-c-authors-byline__author__XdrlD"><span class="AuthorsByLine_mck-c-authors-byline__no-wrap__Ced0j"><a data-component="mdc-c-link" href="/our-people/joris-van-niel" class="mdc-c-link-inline___7DRrt_8032924 mdc-c-link-inline--secondary___YKoOK_8032924"><span class="mdc-c-link__label___Pfqtd_8032924">Joris van Niel</span></a><span> </span></span></span><span class="AuthorsByLine_mck-c-authors-byline__author__XdrlD"><span class="AuthorsByLine_mck-c-authors-byline__no-wrap__Ced0j"><a data-component="mdc-c-link" href="/our-people/ken-somers" class="mdc-c-link-inline___7DRrt_8032924 mdc-c-link-inline--secondary___YKoOK_8032924"><span class="mdc-c-link__label___Pfqtd_8032924">Ken Somers</span></a></span></span><br/><span> </span><span class="AuthorsByLine_mck-c-authors-byline__author__XdrlD"><span class="AuthorsByLine_mck-c-authors-byline__no-wrap__Ced0j">Chiara Magni<span> </span></span></span><span class="AuthorsByLine_mck-c-authors-byline__author__XdrlD"><span class="AuthorsByLine_mck-c-authors-byline__no-wrap__Ced0j">Marcin Hajłasz</span></span></div><div class="mdc-u-grid-col-md-start-8 mdc-u-grid-col-md-end-12 mdc-u-grid-col-lg-start-8 mdc-u-grid-col-lg-end-11 ArticleContent_mck-c-article-content__share-tools__kWRRw"></div></section><section class="mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-col-md-12 mck-u-animation-blur-in-400"><div class="mdc-u-grid-col-md-start-2 mdc-u-grid-col-md-end-12 mdc-u-grid-col-lg-start-3 mdc-u-grid-col-lg-end-11"><div data-component="mdc-c-description" class="mdc-c-description___SrnQP_8032924 mdc-u-ts-5"><div class="mck-u-links-inline">Electrification of industrial heat production is increasingly within reach, offering new possibilities for the global energy transition.</div></div></div></section><main data-layer-region="article-body" class="mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-gutter-xxl"><div class="mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-col-1 mdc-u-grid-col-md-12"><div class="mdc-u-grid-col-md-start-2 mdc-u-grid-col-md-end-12 mdc-u-grid-col-lg-start-3 mdc-u-grid-col-lg-end-11"><div class="mdc-o-content-body mck-u-dropcap"> <div class="mck-o-sidebar mck-o-xs-right-span"><div data-component="mdc-c-module-wrapper" data-module-theme="default" data-module-background="transparent" data-module-category="" class="DownloadsSidebar_mck-c-downloads-sidebar__iFmyt mck-o-xs-right-span"><div data-layer-region="downloads-right-rail"><h3 data-component="mdc-c-heading" class="mdc-c-heading___0fM1W_8032924 mdc-c-heading--title___5qyOB_8032924 mdc-c-heading--border___K8dj3_8032924"></h3><div><div data-component="mdc-c-link-container" class="mdc-c-link-container___xefGu_8032924"><a data-component="mdc-c-link" href="#/download/%2F~%2Fmedia%2Fmckinsey%2Fbusiness%20functions%2Fsustainability%2Four%20insights%2Fnet%20zero%20electrical%20heat%20a%20turning%20point%20in%20feasibility%2Fnet-zero-electrical-heat-a-turning-point-in-feasibility.pdf%3FshouldIndex%3Dfalse" class="DownloadsSidebar_mck-c-downloads-sidebar__download-link__fPqFQ mdc-c-link___lBbY1_8032924" target="_self" data-layer-event-prefix="Download Link" data-layer-action="click" data-layer-report-type="" data-layer-file-name="net-zero-electrical-heat-a-turning-point-in-feasibility" data-layer-report-name="net-zero-electrical-heat-a-turning-point-in-feasibility>"><span data-component="mdc-c-icon" class="mdc-c-icon___oi7ef_8032924 mdc-c-icon--size-md___yi5fA_8032924 mck-download-icon"></span><span class="mdc-c-link__label___Pfqtd_8032924"> (9 pages)</span></a></div></div></div></div></div> <p><strong>Electrifying heat production is not just good for the planet;</strong> it is also technically feasible and increasingly cost competitive. However, enduring perceptions of industrial heat as “difficult to electrify” have hindered progress toward the decarbonization of heat.</p> <p>Electrification can be an accessible and viable option to decarbonize most low- and medium-temperature heat needs across multiple sectors, including food and beverages, manufacturing, and chemicals. High-temperature heat electrification is also ongoing, as paradigm-shifting new designs and concepts are applied across industries.</p> <p>As the economic feasibility of electrification improves, industrial companies have an opportunity to decarbonize and capture value—potentially with payback possible within a year—and increase resilience if they combine electrification with renewables. An integrated approach could be key to unlocking this opportunity.</p> <p>In this article, we address the perceived barriers to electrification and highlight how companies can capture the growing potential for cost-effective, sustainable, and resilient heat systems.</p> <h2>Industrial heat: Responsible for about a fifth of global energy demand and perceived as hard to electrify</h2> <p>Heat (comprising industrial and building heat) is responsible for around half of global energy demand. Industrial heat is responsible for a fifth of global energy demand, accounting for a significant proportion of energy-related carbon emissions (Exhibit 1).</p> <div data-component="mdc-c-module-wrapper" data-module-theme="default" data-module-background="transparent" data-module-category="" class="mck-c-inline-module-container mck-o-md-center"><div class="mck-c-content-header"><div class="ContentHeader_mck-c-content-header__eyebrow__cBTe_"></div></div><div class="mck-u-inline-module-border-bottom"><picture data-component="mdc-c-picture" class="Exhibit_mck-c-exhibit__image__pyIDm"><source media="(min-width: 768px)" srcSet="/~/media/mckinsey/business%20functions/sustainability/our%20insights/net%20zero%20electrical%20heat%20a%20turning%20point%20in%20feasibility/svgz-industrial-electrification_ex1-v2.svgz?cq=50&cpy=Center"/><img alt="The heating industry accounts for around 45 percent of fuel consumption and 30 percent of energy-related emissions." src="/~/media/mckinsey/business%20functions/sustainability/our%20insights/net%20zero%20electrical%20heat%20a%20turning%20point%20in%20feasibility/svgz-industrial-electrification_ex1-v2.svgz?cq=50&cpy=Center" loading="lazy"/></picture></div><div class="mck-u-sr-only"></div></div> <p>While electrification offers a clear pathway to decarbonization and is feasible in almost all heat categories, companies have been slow to make the transition due to long-standing concerns about technical and economic feasibility.<span class="FootNote_footnote-holder__tjRqy"><a aria-label="footnote" href="javascript:void(0);" class="FootNote_footnote-wrapper__AIRwL undefined FootNote_bottom__9aoSL FootNote_inactive__VZfCp" aria-describedby="9123a6ba-afec-4e37-bbfc-ab0eec4643ed"><sup class="FootNote_footnotesup__e73z_">1</sup><span class="FootNote_notch-wrapper__b_5NS"><span class="FootNote_notch__omKtY"></span></span><span class="FootNote_tooltip__QtrbA mdc-u-mt-2"><span class="FootNote_footnote-content__r2OVl"><span id="9123a6ba-afec-4e37-bbfc-ab0eec4643ed" aria-hidden="true" data-module-theme="light" class="FootNote_footnote-text__VjKgO mck-u-links-inline">“<a href="/industries/oil-and-gas/our-insights/global-energy-perspective-2023-industrial-electrification-outlook">Global energy perspective 2023: Industrial electrification outlook</a>,” McKinsey, January 16, 2024.</span></span></span></a></span> A lack of knowledge on commercially available technologies for low-carbon industrial heating, such as thermal storage and heat pumps, has caused hesitation, which is amplified by the complexity and heterogeneity of industrial processes. A better grasp of commercially available technologies could help industrial companies make progress on electrification.</p> <p>Companies may also lack an understanding of the changing economics of electrification. Historically, fossil fuels have been the cheapest energy source for heat production. That heat was in turn used to produce electricity (for example, in coal power plants), and part of it was lost due to the conversion efficiency. This meant that electricity generated from heat was always more expensive than the heat itself.</p> <p>Additionally, in some markets, such as Europe, the cost of heat is climbing as industry must pay for CO<sub>2</sub> emissions.<span class="FootNote_footnote-holder__tjRqy"><a aria-label="footnote" href="javascript:void(0);" class="FootNote_footnote-wrapper__AIRwL undefined FootNote_bottom__9aoSL FootNote_inactive__VZfCp" aria-describedby="165bad93-e653-481f-9dd1-a6e9795256a4"><sup class="FootNote_footnotesup__e73z_">2</sup><span class="FootNote_notch-wrapper__b_5NS"><span class="FootNote_notch__omKtY"></span></span><span class="FootNote_tooltip__QtrbA mdc-u-mt-2"><span class="FootNote_footnote-content__r2OVl"><span id="165bad93-e653-481f-9dd1-a6e9795256a4" aria-hidden="true" data-module-theme="light" class="FootNote_footnote-text__VjKgO mck-u-links-inline">“<a href="/industries/oil-and-gas/our-insights/global-energy-perspective-2023-power-outlook">Global energy perspective 2023: Power outlook</a>,” McKinsey, January 16, 2024.</span></span></span></a></span> Following the proliferation of renewable energy sources (RES), industrials have the chance to decouple the electricity price from fossil fuel prices, enabling greater cost efficiency.</p> <p>However, to capture the opportunity of clean, intermittent power, industrial companies need to understand price forecasting: what are the forecasted trends and how can industrials adapt to benefit? As it stands, not all companies may have the capabilities to develop credible, hourly cost-forecast models for longer-term simulation. Even with up-to-date knowledge of pricing, they may be unfamiliar with multiple price bidding or have limited access to such contracts. Improving industrials’ forecasting capabilities could be a key lever to enable electrification.</p> <p>Further, the current approach to grid costs—where supply exactly meets demand when required and energy delivery is costly—is not congruent with the variable supply from RES.<span class="FootNote_footnote-holder__tjRqy"><a aria-label="footnote" href="javascript:void(0);" class="FootNote_footnote-wrapper__AIRwL undefined FootNote_bottom__9aoSL FootNote_inactive__VZfCp" aria-describedby="270bafb4-1c46-46bc-8257-65b7362fd59a"><sup class="FootNote_footnotesup__e73z_">3</sup><span class="FootNote_notch-wrapper__b_5NS"><span class="FootNote_notch__omKtY"></span></span><span class="FootNote_tooltip__QtrbA mdc-u-mt-2"><span class="FootNote_footnote-content__r2OVl"><span id="270bafb4-1c46-46bc-8257-65b7362fd59a" aria-hidden="true" data-module-theme="light" class="FootNote_footnote-text__VjKgO mck-u-links-inline">Matthijs de Kempenaer, Rob Jagt, Ken Somers, and Godart van Gendt, “<a href="/industries/electric-power-and-natural-gas/our-insights/demand-based-pricing-stabilizes-the-electricity-market-of-the-future">Demand-based pricing stabilizes the electricity market of the future</a>,” McKinsey, February 28, 2024.</span></span></span></a></span> When electricity from RES is in excess, users still pay for costly energy delivery. <a href="/industries/electric-power-and-natural-gas/our-insights/demand-based-pricing-stabilizes-the-electricity-market-of-the-future">A new grid mechanism</a> that can adapt to an electricity surplus is needed to set the transmission price. Such a mechanism can be more granular and, for example, introduce dynamic bidding split by congestion zone.</p> <p>Electrification can also be limited by a paucity of operational incentives. The principle of “if it isn't broken, don't fix it” is deeply ingrained in engineers and, without strong incentives, companies may hesitate to change well-established processes that have proven to be reliable over many years.</p> <div data-component="mdc-c-module-wrapper" data-module-theme="default" data-module-background="transparent" data-module-category="" class="mck-c-disruptor1up mck-o-md-center mck-u-inline-module-border-top mck-u-inline-module-border-bottom mck-u-screen-only" data-layer-region="disruptor-1up"><div class="mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-gutter-md mdc-u-grid-col-lg-12 mdc-u-grid-col-md-12 "><div class="mdc-u-grid-col-lg-span-4 mdc-u-grid-col-md-span-5 Disruptor1Up_mck-c-disruptor1up__image___2Gc4"><picture data-component="mdc-c-picture"><img alt="Move from plans to progress." src="/~/media/mckinsey/business%20functions/sustainability/how%20we%20help%20clients/sustainability-campaign_promo-thumb_1536x1536.jpg?cq=50&mh=145&car=16:9&cpy=Center" loading="lazy"/></picture></div><div class="mdc-u-grid-col-lg-span-8 mdc-u-grid-col-md-span-7"><header data-component="mdc-c-header" class="mdc-c-header"><div class="mdc-c-header__block___i1Lg-_8032924"><h3 data-component="mdc-c-heading" class="mdc-c-heading___0fM1W_8032924"><div><span class="disrupt-ab">Move from plans to progress.</span></div></h3><div data-component="mdc-c-description" class="mdc-c-description___SrnQP_8032924 mdc-u-ts-7"><p><div>Sustainability matters. Together we’ll make it real.</div></p></div></div></header><div data-component="mdc-c-link-container" class="mdc-c-link-container___xefGu_8032924 mdc-c-link-container--display-column___X0HDD_8032924 mck-c-disruptor1up__content Disruptor1Up_mck-c-disruptor1up__content--links__VV4lE mdc-u-grid-gutter-md"><a data-component="mdc-c-link" href="https://www.mckinsey.com/capabilities/sustainability/how-we-help-clients/?cid=susti24-ste-crk-mbm-m01-other-glb-web" class="mdc-c-link-cta___NBQVi_8032924" target="_blank"><span class="mdc-c-link__label___Pfqtd_8032924">Get started</span><span data-component="mdc-c-icon" class="mdc-c-icon___oi7ef_8032924 mck-external-icon"></span></a></div></div></div></div> <h2>Concerns of technical feasibility no longer hold true</h2> <p>Contrary to what many companies believe, however, our analysis suggests that electrification technologies are commercially available for most low- and medium-temperature heat needs.<span class="FootNote_footnote-holder__tjRqy"><a aria-label="footnote" href="javascript:void(0);" class="FootNote_footnote-wrapper__AIRwL undefined FootNote_bottom__9aoSL FootNote_inactive__VZfCp" aria-describedby="4678ea12-bc03-4848-bb64-6644248c4e9e"><sup class="FootNote_footnotesup__e73z_">4</sup><span class="FootNote_notch-wrapper__b_5NS"><span class="FootNote_notch__omKtY"></span></span><span class="FootNote_tooltip__QtrbA mdc-u-mt-2"><span class="FootNote_footnote-content__r2OVl"><span id="4678ea12-bc03-4848-bb64-6644248c4e9e" aria-hidden="true" data-module-theme="light" class="FootNote_footnote-text__VjKgO mck-u-links-inline">Low- and medium-temperature heat is up to 600°C and high temperature above 400°C.</span></span></span></a></span> The redesign of heat processes that were intended for fossil fuels can often bring additional benefits, such as a reduction of operational expenses in the long term for certain industries.</p> <div data-component="mdc-c-module-wrapper" data-module-theme="light" data-module-background="lightest-grey" data-module-category="" data-module-gradient-position="bottom-right" class="mck-c-inline-module-container SideBar_mck-c-sidebar__bgimg-wrapper__Qj4Dt mck-o-sm-left-span SideBar_mck-c-sidebar__sidebar-wrapper__Dpjw2 SideBar_mck-c-sidebar__sidebar-wrapper--istablet__IQ6ii mck-u-screen-only mck-c-module-wrapper" data-layer-region="sidebar"><div class="SideBar_mck-c-sidebar__epoAm mck-o-md-center"><div class="SideBar_mck-c-sidebar__share-icons-wrapper__9gB_c"><div data-component="mdc-c-link-container" class="mdc-c-link-container___xefGu_8032924 mdc-c-link-container--display-column___X0HDD_8032924 SideBar_mck-c-sidebar__share-icons___eQy6"><div data-component="mdc-c-dropdown-menu" class="mdc-c-drop-down"><button data-component="mdc-c-button" aria-label="" type="button" id="button_id" class="mdc-c-button___U4iY2_8032924 mdc-c-button--ghost mdc-c-button--size-medium mdc-c-drop-down__rootmenu___yJzvz_8032924" aria-expanded="false" aria-haspopup="menu"><span data-component="mdc-c-icon" class="mdc-c-icon___oi7ef_8032924 mdc-c-icon--default___f-hQM_8032924 mdc-c-icon--size-md___yi5fA_8032924 mck-share2-icon"></span></button><div data-component="mdc-c-module-wrapper" data-module-theme="light" data-module-background="white" data-module-category="" class=""></div></div><button data-component="mdc-c-button" aria-label="Expandable Sidebar" type="button" id="button_id" class="mdc-c-button___U4iY2_8032924 mdc-c-button--ghost mdc-c-button--size-medium SideBar_mck-c-sidebar__toggle-btn__EL8iE" aria-expanded="false" data-layer-event-prefix="UI Item" data-layer-action="click" data-layer-category="sidebar" data-layer-subcategory="open" data-layer-text="open sidebar"><span data-component="mdc-c-icon" class="mdc-c-icon___oi7ef_8032924 mdc-c-icon--radial___y3csX_8032924 mdc-c-icon--size-xxl___cL3ZT_8032924 mck-plus-no-circle-icon"></span></button></div></div><div class="SideBar_mck-c-sidebar__content-outer__UdWCq"><div class="SideBar_mck-c-sidebar__eyebrow__5GSEq"></div><div class="SideBar_mck-c-sidebar__content__raEwe"><h2 data-component="mdc-c-heading" class="mdc-c-heading___0fM1W_8032924 mdc-u-ts-3 SideBar_mck-c-sidebar__content-heading__NJekY"><div>Our analysis</div></h2><div class="SideBar_mck-c-sidebar__content-description__4p9iI mdc-u-ts-7"><div class="mdc-o-content-body"><p>We have evaluated 60 industrial processes across eight sectors (metals and mining, cement, chemicals, fertilizers, pulp and paper, construction materials, food, and machinery and equipment) as well as 13 types of general industrial equipment (such as boilers, kilns, and dryers).</p> <p>Each assessment comprised an extensive process overview with a focus on heat demand. Each heat demand source was evaluated for potential electrification using solutions that are either available on the market today or are in advanced development stage. For temperatures below 600<sup>o</sup>C, electrification is possible today with mature equipment. For higher temperatures, the electrification potential is close to 100 percent, but the technology needs more maturation.</p></div></div></div></div></div></div> <p>Our analysis shows that electrification is an accessible and viable option within certain conditions, with some small exceptions (see sidebar, “Our analysis”). Electrification can be undertaken today for many low- and medium-temperature heat processes (up to 600°C), but technologies for high- and very-high-temperature heat needs (above 600°C) still need to mature. This specifically refers to the transfer of heat from the electrical heating element to the product, as high temperature heating means are mature and available today.</p> <ul> <li><strong>Low- and medium-temperature heat sectors,</strong> including food and beverages, manufacturing, and chemicals, can decarbonize using existing electrification technologies (Exhibit 2). Many industrial processes such as pasteurization, sterilization, drying, or heating require temperatures well below 600°C. An example in the food industry is milk powder production—this requires temperatures of up to 250°C and can therefore use electric solutions such as hot air heaters, superheated steam drying, and electric steam boilers.<span class="FootNote_footnote-holder__tjRqy"><a aria-label="footnote" href="javascript:void(0);" class="FootNote_footnote-wrapper__AIRwL undefined FootNote_bottom__9aoSL FootNote_inactive__VZfCp" aria-describedby="c596b782-4936-4fb5-ba10-444b7a287917"><sup class="FootNote_footnotesup__e73z_">5</sup><span class="FootNote_notch-wrapper__b_5NS"><span class="FootNote_notch__omKtY"></span></span><span class="FootNote_tooltip__QtrbA mdc-u-mt-2"><span class="FootNote_footnote-content__r2OVl"><span id="c596b782-4936-4fb5-ba10-444b7a287917" aria-hidden="true" data-module-theme="light" class="FootNote_footnote-text__VjKgO mck-u-links-inline"><em>Best Available Techniques (BAT) reference document for the food, drink and milk industries</em>, European Commission, 2019.</span></span></span></a></span></li> </ul> <div data-component="mdc-c-module-wrapper" data-module-theme="default" data-module-background="transparent" data-module-category="" class="mck-c-inline-module-container mck-o-md-center"><div class="mck-c-content-header"><div class="ContentHeader_mck-c-content-header__eyebrow__cBTe_"></div></div><div class="mck-u-inline-module-border-bottom"><picture data-component="mdc-c-picture" class="Exhibit_mck-c-exhibit__image__pyIDm"><source media="(min-width: 768px)" srcSet="/~/media/mckinsey/business%20functions/sustainability/our%20insights/net%20zero%20electrical%20heat%20a%20turning%20point%20in%20feasibility/svgz-industrial-electrification_ex2-v3.svgz?cq=50&cpy=Center"/><img alt="Technologies for electrification of heat up to to around 600 degrees Celsius are already mature." src="/~/media/mckinsey/business%20functions/sustainability/our%20insights/net%20zero%20electrical%20heat%20a%20turning%20point%20in%20feasibility/svgz-industrial-electrification_ex2-v3.svgz?cq=50&cpy=Center" loading="lazy"/></picture></div><div class="mck-u-sr-only"></div></div> <ul> <li><strong>High-temperature heat sectors</strong> have solutions that vary in maturity. At a small scale, industrials often use existing electrification technologies, with industrials in some countries adopting electrification technologies early due to expensive and limited liquid fuels and a focus on small-scale entrepreneurship. In glass and glass wool processes, electrification is relatively advanced, but many industries require further development. Additionally, radiant-based heating is often used for high-temperature heat—raising the importance of rethinking old furnace designs rather than replicating designs with electrical elements.</li> <li><strong>Very high-temperature heat sectors,</strong> like cement production (which requires temperatures of up to 1,500°C), are available but at an early stage of maturity. New designs, such as Leilac, are well-suited to high-temperature heat processes as they split calcination and clinkerization, with the calcination designed for fuel arbitrage and pure CO<sub>2</sub> production.<span class="FootNote_footnote-holder__tjRqy"><a aria-label="footnote" href="javascript:void(0);" class="FootNote_footnote-wrapper__AIRwL undefined FootNote_bottom__9aoSL FootNote_inactive__VZfCp" aria-describedby="16220baa-3aca-4d91-9af4-1d98ef2aad11"><sup class="FootNote_footnotesup__e73z_">6</sup><span class="FootNote_notch-wrapper__b_5NS"><span class="FootNote_notch__omKtY"></span></span><span class="FootNote_tooltip__QtrbA mdc-u-mt-2"><span class="FootNote_footnote-content__r2OVl"><span id="16220baa-3aca-4d91-9af4-1d98ef2aad11" aria-hidden="true" data-module-theme="light" class="FootNote_footnote-text__VjKgO mck-u-links-inline">“Sustainable industry. Sustainable planet,” World Cement, May 22, 2023.</span></span></span></a></span> According to our analysis, retrofitting is expected to have a similar capital expenditure to amine-based carbon capture, with partial electrification also possible. In the alumina production process (where temperatures up to 1,000°C are required), electrifying the calciner can enable steam recovery, which is not achievable in the current fossil fuel-based design. That steam can be used elsewhere in the plant—for example, in the bauxite digestion process—and effectively reduce the overall plant energy demand.</li> </ul> <p>However, electrification is not a “one size fits all” lever for decarbonization. Bespoke solutions involving various technologies (like biofuels, geothermal, and nuclear) may be more suitable for processes and sectors across different contexts. For industries such as ethylene production, electrical crackers are being conceived and tested, with some—including new rotating equipment—showing improved yield, reduced size, and strong economic incentives.<span class="FootNote_footnote-holder__tjRqy"><a aria-label="footnote" href="javascript:void(0);" class="FootNote_footnote-wrapper__AIRwL undefined FootNote_bottom__9aoSL FootNote_inactive__VZfCp" aria-describedby="4a31b717-c74a-4c87-be3d-c8716b5826e2"><sup class="FootNote_footnotesup__e73z_">7</sup><span class="FootNote_notch-wrapper__b_5NS"><span class="FootNote_notch__omKtY"></span></span><span class="FootNote_tooltip__QtrbA mdc-u-mt-2"><span class="FootNote_footnote-content__r2OVl"><span id="4a31b717-c74a-4c87-be3d-c8716b5826e2" aria-hidden="true" data-module-theme="light" class="FootNote_footnote-text__VjKgO mck-u-links-inline">Joonas Rauramo, “Vendor viewpoint: How RotoDynamic technology enables clean olefin production,” <em>Chemical Engineer</em>, October 21, 2023.</span></span></span></a></span> In high temperature processes where high energy density is needed, electrification can be combined with fuel (for example, hydrogen). Further, electricity can be used to preheat air and effectively reduce fuel demand.</p> <h2>Economic feasibility is improving and net-present-value-positive cases present new opportunities</h2> <p>The economics of decarbonizing heat via electrification are increasingly viable. First, electrification can bring additional benefits such as efficiency gains in the case of heat pumps or even better product yields (for example, in electrified ethylene production).<span class="FootNote_footnote-holder__tjRqy"><a aria-label="footnote" href="javascript:void(0);" class="FootNote_footnote-wrapper__AIRwL undefined FootNote_bottom__9aoSL FootNote_inactive__VZfCp" aria-describedby="856c4a9d-0351-41e7-ab4e-13d0ef866ad7"><sup class="FootNote_footnotesup__e73z_">8</sup><span class="FootNote_notch-wrapper__b_5NS"><span class="FootNote_notch__omKtY"></span></span><span class="FootNote_tooltip__QtrbA mdc-u-mt-2"><span class="FootNote_footnote-content__r2OVl"><span id="856c4a9d-0351-41e7-ab4e-13d0ef866ad7" aria-hidden="true" data-module-theme="light" class="FootNote_footnote-text__VjKgO mck-u-links-inline">“Key advantage of RotoDynamic Reactor compared to furnace technology,” Coolbrook, 2024.</span></span></span></a></span></p> <p>Second, electricity is already often cheaper than gas. On one hand, the on-site costs of RES are going down and, on the other hand, grid electricity prices are becoming lower in moments of oversupply.<span class="FootNote_footnote-holder__tjRqy"><a aria-label="footnote" href="javascript:void(0);" class="FootNote_footnote-wrapper__AIRwL undefined FootNote_bottom__9aoSL FootNote_inactive__VZfCp" aria-describedby="98a322e5-5387-4295-b180-bdbd0bf4e587"><sup class="FootNote_footnotesup__e73z_">9</sup><span class="FootNote_notch-wrapper__b_5NS"><span class="FootNote_notch__omKtY"></span></span><span class="FootNote_tooltip__QtrbA mdc-u-mt-2"><span class="FootNote_footnote-content__r2OVl"><span id="98a322e5-5387-4295-b180-bdbd0bf4e587" aria-hidden="true" data-module-theme="light" class="FootNote_footnote-text__VjKgO mck-u-links-inline">The price of electricity on short-term wholesale markets, such as the day-ahead market, is determined by the variable cost of the marginal producer, which is the most expensive plant needed to meet demand. When it comes to renewable energy sources (RES), the marginal cost of an additional unit of electricity is zero, resulting in a decrease in electricity prices in the event of an oversupply of RES.</span></span></span></a></span> Often, these two sources of electricity (on-site RES and grid) can be combined, leading to even lower energy costs. Third, CO<sub>2</sub> prices are effectively making fossil fuels more expensive.</p> <p>All these elements together make a good case for considering heat electrification in the industrial context. But, regardless of these overall trends, companies may still need to identify the best way to capture value from decarbonizing heat. Electricity combined with thermal energy storage is expected to have a high potential for several reasons.<span class="FootNote_footnote-holder__tjRqy"><a aria-label="footnote" href="javascript:void(0);" class="FootNote_footnote-wrapper__AIRwL undefined FootNote_bottom__9aoSL FootNote_inactive__VZfCp" aria-describedby="3d2d4cdd-3e2b-4917-a31d-9d14bd930374"><sup class="FootNote_footnotesup__e73z_">10</sup><span class="FootNote_notch-wrapper__b_5NS"><span class="FootNote_notch__omKtY"></span></span><span class="FootNote_tooltip__QtrbA mdc-u-mt-2"><span class="FootNote_footnote-content__r2OVl"><span id="3d2d4cdd-3e2b-4917-a31d-9d14bd930374" aria-hidden="true" data-module-theme="light" class="FootNote_footnote-text__VjKgO mck-u-links-inline">“<a href="/industries/electric-power-and-natural-gas/our-insights/demand-based-pricing-stabilizes-the-electricity-market-of-the-future">Demand-based pricing</a>,” February 28, 2024.</span></span></span></a></span> For one, electric heating can be installed quickly and in parallel to existing heating; for example, using steam, resistive liquid heating, and hot air for drying. In addition, thermal storage can be combined with both grid storage and low-cost, behind-the-meter generation.</p> <p>The economic potential of electricity combined with thermal storage is supported by the decreasing costs of renewable energy generation. As more renewable electricity capacity becomes available on the grid, prices typically become more volatile. This can create arbitrage opportunities to alleviate grid bottlenecks and stabilize prices.</p> <div data-component="mdc-c-module-wrapper" data-module-theme="light" data-module-background="lightest-grey" data-module-category="" data-module-gradient-position="bottom-right" class="mck-c-inline-module-container SideBar_mck-c-sidebar__bgimg-wrapper__Qj4Dt mck-o-sm-left-span SideBar_mck-c-sidebar__sidebar-wrapper__Dpjw2 SideBar_mck-c-sidebar__sidebar-wrapper--istablet__IQ6ii mck-u-screen-only mck-c-module-wrapper" data-layer-region="sidebar"><div class="SideBar_mck-c-sidebar__epoAm mck-o-md-center"><div class="SideBar_mck-c-sidebar__share-icons-wrapper__9gB_c"><div data-component="mdc-c-link-container" class="mdc-c-link-container___xefGu_8032924 mdc-c-link-container--display-column___X0HDD_8032924 SideBar_mck-c-sidebar__share-icons___eQy6"><div data-component="mdc-c-dropdown-menu" class="mdc-c-drop-down"><button data-component="mdc-c-button" aria-label="" type="button" id="button_id" class="mdc-c-button___U4iY2_8032924 mdc-c-button--ghost mdc-c-button--size-medium mdc-c-drop-down__rootmenu___yJzvz_8032924" aria-expanded="false" aria-haspopup="menu"><span data-component="mdc-c-icon" class="mdc-c-icon___oi7ef_8032924 mdc-c-icon--default___f-hQM_8032924 mdc-c-icon--size-md___yi5fA_8032924 mck-share2-icon"></span></button><div data-component="mdc-c-module-wrapper" data-module-theme="light" data-module-background="white" data-module-category="" class=""></div></div><button data-component="mdc-c-button" aria-label="Expandable Sidebar" type="button" id="button_id" class="mdc-c-button___U4iY2_8032924 mdc-c-button--ghost mdc-c-button--size-medium SideBar_mck-c-sidebar__toggle-btn__EL8iE" aria-expanded="false" data-layer-event-prefix="UI Item" data-layer-action="click" data-layer-category="sidebar" data-layer-subcategory="open" data-layer-text="open sidebar"><span data-component="mdc-c-icon" class="mdc-c-icon___oi7ef_8032924 mdc-c-icon--radial___y3csX_8032924 mdc-c-icon--size-xxl___cL3ZT_8032924 mck-plus-no-circle-icon"></span></button></div></div><div class="SideBar_mck-c-sidebar__content-outer__UdWCq"><div class="SideBar_mck-c-sidebar__eyebrow__5GSEq"></div><div class="SideBar_mck-c-sidebar__content__raEwe"><h2 data-component="mdc-c-heading" class="mdc-c-heading___0fM1W_8032924 mdc-u-ts-3 SideBar_mck-c-sidebar__content-heading__NJekY"><div>The advantages of oversizing electricity generation</div></h2><div class="SideBar_mck-c-sidebar__content-description__4p9iI mdc-u-ts-7"><div class="mdc-o-content-body"><p>The electrification of heat, particularly with thermal energy storage, can give additional degrees of freedom when designing overall plant energy procurement. For example, many companies install solar photovoltaic (PV) systems to provide part of their electricity demand. Typically, the size of the solar panels is capped by the demand in the peak production time, which is the middle of the day. In the morning and evening hours, solar panels provide only a small amount of the energy supply. When the plant decides to electrify heat, the constraint on maximum capacity is released and it can oversize its RES generation.</p> <p>Additional production of energy in peak time can be used to generate heat or be stored in thermal storage for later use. Oversized solar panels can provide a larger share of electricity in the morning and evening hours, allowing for larger energy bill savings.</p></div></div></div></div></div></div> <p>Another economical advantage of electrification is that the cost of electricity is becoming lower than the cost of gas and CO<sub>2</sub> (Exhibit 3). Drops in prices generally coincide with an oversupply of RES—this means that “cheap hours” of electricity availability are also “low-emission hours” (see sidebar, “The advantages of oversizing electricity generation”).</p> <div data-component="mdc-c-module-wrapper" data-module-theme="default" data-module-background="transparent" data-module-category="" class="mck-c-inline-module-container mck-o-md-center"><div class="mck-c-content-header"><div class="ContentHeader_mck-c-content-header__eyebrow__cBTe_"></div></div><div class="mck-u-inline-module-border-bottom"><picture data-component="mdc-c-picture" class="Exhibit_mck-c-exhibit__image__pyIDm"><source media="(min-width: 768px)" srcSet="/~/media/mckinsey/business%20functions/sustainability/our%20insights/net%20zero%20electrical%20heat%20a%20turning%20point%20in%20feasibility/svgz-industrial-electrification_ex3-v2.svgz?cq=50&cpy=Center"/><img alt="Day-ahead electricity prices are falling below the costs of gas and CO2." src="/~/media/mckinsey/business%20functions/sustainability/our%20insights/net%20zero%20electrical%20heat%20a%20turning%20point%20in%20feasibility/svgz-industrial-electrification_ex3-v2.svgz?cq=50&cpy=Center" loading="lazy"/></picture></div><div class="mck-u-sr-only"></div></div> <p>While the large price swings of 2022 are no longer present, when we look, for example, at Germany and Spain, and consider the price spread between gas and electricity, it becomes apparent that price volatility remains (Exhibit 4). In both examples, the share of hours when electricity was cheaper than gas was around 15 to 25 percent in 2023. Price volatility may increase in the future as additional RES are added to the system.</p> <div data-component="mdc-c-module-wrapper" data-module-theme="default" data-module-background="transparent" data-module-category="" class="mck-c-inline-module-container mck-o-md-center"><div class="mck-c-content-header"><div class="ContentHeader_mck-c-content-header__eyebrow__cBTe_"></div></div><div class="mck-u-inline-module-border-bottom"><picture data-component="mdc-c-picture" class="Exhibit_mck-c-exhibit__image__pyIDm"><source media="(min-width: 768px)" srcSet="/~/media/mckinsey/business%20functions/sustainability/our%20insights/net%20zero%20electrical%20heat%20a%20turning%20point%20in%20feasibility/svgz-industrial-electrification_ex4-v2.svgz?cq=50&cpy=Center"/><img alt="While price volatility decreased after 2022, electricity was still cheaper than gas for 15 to 25 percent of hours in 2023." src="/~/media/mckinsey/business%20functions/sustainability/our%20insights/net%20zero%20electrical%20heat%20a%20turning%20point%20in%20feasibility/svgz-industrial-electrification_ex4-v2.svgz?cq=50&cpy=Center" loading="lazy"/></picture></div><div class="mck-u-sr-only"></div></div> <h2>Under the right conditions, electrification could pay back within a year</h2> <p>Electrification presents a swift payback time. Our analysis modeled the hourly system operations for Germany and Spain in 2021, 2022, and 2023 to illustrate examples with contexts of historical, (2021) extreme (2022), and current (2023) volatility (Exhibit 5). The model applies a hybrid system with a parallel electric boiler—a solution that can be applied most easily across industries. This system demonstrated a payback turnaround time of around eight months to five-and-a-half years, based on low capital expenditure (€125,000 per megawatt thermal [MWth]).</p> <div data-component="mdc-c-module-wrapper" data-module-theme="default" data-module-background="transparent" data-module-category="" class="mck-c-inline-module-container mck-o-md-center"><div class="mck-c-content-header"><div class="ContentHeader_mck-c-content-header__eyebrow__cBTe_"></div></div><div class="mck-u-inline-module-border-bottom"><picture data-component="mdc-c-picture" class="Exhibit_mck-c-exhibit__image__pyIDm"><source media="(min-width: 768px)" srcSet="/~/media/mckinsey/business%20functions/sustainability/our%20insights/net%20zero%20electrical%20heat%20a%20turning%20point%20in%20feasibility/svgz-industrial-electrification_ex5-v2.svgz?cq=50&cpy=Center"/><img alt="Hybrid gas-electric boiler systems can pay back in less than a year when volatility is high." src="/~/media/mckinsey/business%20functions/sustainability/our%20insights/net%20zero%20electrical%20heat%20a%20turning%20point%20in%20feasibility/svgz-industrial-electrification_ex5-v2.svgz?cq=50&cpy=Center" loading="lazy"/></picture></div><div class="mck-u-sr-only"></div></div> <p>Our analysis also considered the increasing role of thermal systems for storing excess energy during periods of volatility. In the modeled cases, we observed payback times of just over one-and-a-half years to over four-and-a-half years. More important, over half of the energy was delivered electrically—effectively through excess “clean” electrons. However, the analysis considered that the end user would only pay an additional variable cost for electricity, without having to pay grid fees, given the small size of the boiler (assuming that the capacity was already booked and paid for).</p> <p>The current grid fee structure with fixed fees of about €20,000 per megavolt-amperes (MVA) requires at least 3,000 hours of low-cost electricity to enable electrification at scale. However, in many cases, the transmission grid still has capacity, and market building, dynamic pricing, and local grid price-setting based on congestion can create a win–win–win (as the grid gets money for capacity not used, industrial players receive cheap heat, and the electricity market has a higher floor).</p> <h2>Companies can capture the electrification opportunity with an integrated approach</h2> <p>Companies can be proactive in overcoming perceived challenges to electrification by considering four actions.</p> <ol> <li><strong>Develop a vision and a case for action:</strong> Companies with a committed leadership focus and vision for the energy transition could benefit from more cost-effective, sustainable, and resilient energy solutions, including cases with a demonstrated positive net present value (NPV). These solutions can not only improve short-term cost competitiveness and resilience toward energy and carbon price swings but can also fund the subsequent steps of the transition. First movers may gain an additional advantage through green premiums on their products.</li> <li><strong>Build capabilities and constantly renew them:</strong> To accelerate progress at a lower cost, companies can establish a center of excellence that provides standardized engineering and a centralized platform for sharing best practices. This platform can be boosted by a dedicated technology search function to identify emerging solutions and opportunities for collaborative operating models. Approaches can be driven by a holistic mindset and theoretical limits, rather than incremental improvements. Key capabilities for the cross-functional team can include performance management, advanced analytics, process redesign, heat integration, and sourcing of green energy.</li> <li><strong>Implement rigorous delivery models and governance:</strong> Companies require a rigorous cadence of project planning and implementation to deliver value, codify methodology, and roll out high-impact, repeatable initiatives. Companies can deliver project management approaches to progress and risks in an objective and consistent manner across sites. Bottom-up planning supported by structured, daily performance dialogues can drive team productivity.</li> <li><strong>Be bold and use what exists:</strong> Dare to come with completely new designs by pushing the boundaries and opening the aperture. By using existing funds intended for technology development and decarbonization, industrials can realize bold visions.</li> </ol> <hr/> <p>Electrifying industrial heat is less challenging than previously believed. Although industrial heat requirements vary widely, commercially available technologies and bespoke design solutions are rapidly filling the gaps. As economic feasibility increases, companies that commit to decarbonization could benefit from both cost-efficiency and emissions reductions on the path to net zero.</p></div><div class="container-placeholder"></div></div></div><div class="mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-gutter-xl"><section role="contentinfo" data-layer-region="article-about-authors" class="mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-col-md-12 AboutAuthor_mck-c-about-author__nRJzu"><div class="mdc-u-grid-col-md-start-2 mdc-u-grid-col-md-end-12 mdc-u-grid-col-lg-start-3 mdc-u-grid-col-lg-end-11"><h5 data-component="mdc-c-heading" class="mdc-c-heading___0fM1W_8032924 mdc-c-heading--title___5qyOB_8032924 mdc-c-heading--border___K8dj3_8032924 mdc-u-align-center"></h5><div data-component="mdc-c-description" class="mdc-c-description___SrnQP_8032924 mdc-u-ts-8 mck-u-links-inline mck-u-links-inline--secondary mdc-u-mt-5"><div><p><strong><a href="/our-people/joris-van-niel">Joris van Niel</a></strong> is a partner in McKinsey’s Amsterdam office; <strong><a href="/our-people/ken-somers">Ken Somers</a></strong> is a partner in the Brussels office, where <strong>Chiara Magni</strong> is a consultant; and <strong>Marcin Hajłasz</strong> is a knowledge expert in the Wroclaw office.</p> <p>The authors wish to thank Bartosz Browarczyk, Godart van Gendt, Joe Alam, Mohammed Ghonima, Sergio Nistal Prieto, and Tiago Meintjes for their contributions to this article.</p></div></div></div></section><section class="mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-col-md-12 mck-u-screen-only"><div class="mdc-u-grid-col-md-start-2 mdc-u-grid-col-md-end-12 mdc-u-grid-col-lg-start-5 mdc-u-grid-col-lg-end-9"><h5 data-component="mdc-c-heading" class="mdc-c-heading___0fM1W_8032924 mdc-c-heading--title___5qyOB_8032924 mdc-c-heading--border___K8dj3_8032924 mdc-u-align-center">Explore a career with us</h5><div data-component="mdc-c-link-container" class="mdc-c-link-container___xefGu_8032924 mdc-c-link-container--align-center___ar3mu_8032924"><a data-component="mdc-c-link" href="/careers/search-jobs" class="mdc-c-button___U4iY2_8032924 mdc-c-button--secondary___Boipq_8032924 mdc-c-button--size-large___jwpUy_8032924" aria-label="Search Openings" data-layer-event-prefix="CTA Link" data-layer-action="click" data-layer-category="careers" data-layer-subcategory="search" data-layer-text="Search Openings"><span class="mdc-c-link__label___Pfqtd_8032924">Search Openings</span></a></div></div></section></div></main></div></div></main></div><script id="__NEXT_DATA__" type="application/json">{"props":{"pageProps":{"locale":"en","dictionary":{},"sitecoreContext":{"route":{"name":"Net zero electrical heat A turning point in feasibility","displayName":"Net zero electrical heat A turning point in feasibility","fields":null,"databaseName":"web","deviceId":"fe5d7fdf-89c0-4d99-9aa3-b5fbd009c9f3","itemId":"cc5181d9-b93b-4bf2-a412-c16dca1c8323","itemLanguage":"en","itemVersion":1,"layoutId":"ae753eb4-a035-40b4-83bf-4b4438df6742","templateId":"683910db-02ba-40ba-92e7-726c880160a9","templateName":"ArticleJSS","placeholders":{"jss-main":[{"uid":"232bb7e9-289f-492d-a916-2b6185e44a84","componentName":"ArticleTemplate","dataSource":"","fields":{"data":{"articleTemplate":{"title":{"jsonValue":{"value":"Net-zero electrical heat: A turning point in feasibility"}},"sEOTitle":{"value":"The feasibility of net-zero electrical heat"},"description":{"jsonValue":{"value":"Electrification of industrial heat production is increasingly within reach, offering new possibilities for the global energy transition."}},"sEODescription":{"value":""},"displayDate":{"jsonValue":{"value":"2024-07-16T00:00:00Z"}},"body":{"value":"[[audio 1]]\n[[DownloadsSidebar]]\n[[MostPopularArticles 5]]\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eElectrifying heat production is not just good for the planet;\u003c/strong\u003e it is also technically feasible and increasingly cost competitive. However, enduring perceptions of industrial heat as \u0026ldquo;difficult to electrify\u0026rdquo; have hindered progress toward the decarbonization of heat.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eElectrification can be an accessible and viable option to decarbonize most low- and medium-temperature heat needs across multiple sectors, including food and beverages, manufacturing, and chemicals. High-temperature heat electrification is also ongoing, as paradigm-shifting new designs and concepts are applied across industries.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAs the economic feasibility of electrification improves, industrial companies have an opportunity to decarbonize and capture value\u0026mdash;potentially with payback possible within a year\u0026mdash;and increase resilience if they combine electrification with renewables. An integrated approach could be key to unlocking this opportunity.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eIn this article, we address the perceived barriers to electrification and highlight how companies can capture the growing potential for cost-effective, sustainable, and resilient heat systems.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003ch2\u003eIndustrial heat: Responsible for about a fifth of global energy demand and perceived as hard to electrify\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eHeat (comprising industrial and building heat) is responsible for around half of global energy demand. Industrial heat is responsible for a fifth of global energy demand, accounting for a significant proportion of energy-related carbon emissions (Exhibit 1).\u003c/p\u003e\n[[Exhibit 1]]\n\u003cp\u003eWhile electrification offers a clear pathway to decarbonization and is feasible in almost all heat categories, companies have been slow to make the transition due to long-standing concerns about technical and economic feasibility.[[footnote 1]] A lack of knowledge on commercially available technologies for low-carbon industrial heating, such as thermal storage and heat pumps, has caused hesitation, which is amplified by the complexity and heterogeneity of industrial processes. A better grasp of commercially available technologies could help industrial companies make progress on electrification.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eCompanies may also lack an understanding of the changing economics of electrification. Historically, fossil fuels have been the cheapest energy source for heat production. That heat was in turn used to produce electricity (for example, in coal power plants), and part of it was lost due to the conversion efficiency. This meant that electricity generated from heat was always more expensive than the heat itself.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAdditionally, in some markets, such as Europe, the cost of heat is climbing as industry must pay for CO\u003csub\u003e2\u003c/sub\u003e emissions.[[footnote 2]] Following the proliferation of renewable energy sources (RES), industrials have the chance to decouple the electricity price from fossil fuel prices, enabling greater cost efficiency.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eHowever, to capture the opportunity of clean, intermittent power, industrial companies need to understand price forecasting: what are the forecasted trends and how can industrials adapt to benefit? As it stands, not all companies may have the capabilities to develop credible, hourly cost-forecast models for longer-term simulation. Even with up-to-date knowledge of pricing, they may be unfamiliar with multiple price bidding or have limited access to such contracts. Improving industrials\u0026rsquo; forecasting capabilities could be a key lever to enable electrification.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eFurther, the current approach to grid costs\u0026mdash;where supply exactly meets demand when required and energy delivery is costly\u0026mdash;is not congruent with the variable supply from RES.[[footnote 3]] When electricity from RES is in excess, users still pay for costly energy delivery. \u003ca href=\"/industries/electric-power-and-natural-gas/our-insights/demand-based-pricing-stabilizes-the-electricity-market-of-the-future\"\u003eA new grid mechanism\u003c/a\u003e that can adapt to an electricity surplus is needed to set the transmission price. Such a mechanism can be more granular and, for example, introduce dynamic bidding split by congestion zone.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eElectrification can also be limited by a paucity of operational incentives. The principle of \u0026ldquo;if it isn't broken, don't fix it\u0026rdquo; is deeply ingrained in engineers and, without strong incentives, companies may hesitate to change well-established processes that have proven to be reliable over many years.\u003c/p\u003e\n[[disruptor1up sust]]\n\u003ch2\u003eConcerns of technical feasibility no longer hold true\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eContrary to what many companies believe, however, our analysis suggests that electrification technologies are commercially available for most low- and medium-temperature heat needs.[[footnote 4]] The redesign of heat processes that were intended for fossil fuels can often bring additional benefits, such as a reduction of operational expenses in the long term for certain industries.\u003c/p\u003e\n[[sidebar 1]]\n\u003cp\u003eOur analysis shows that electrification is an accessible and viable option within certain conditions, with some small exceptions (see sidebar, \u0026ldquo;Our analysis\u0026rdquo;). Electrification can be undertaken today for many low- and medium-temperature heat processes (up to 600\u0026deg;C), but technologies for high- and very-high-temperature heat needs (above 600\u0026deg;C) still need to mature. This specifically refers to the transfer of heat from the electrical heating element to the product, as high temperature heating means are mature and available today.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cul\u003e\n \u003cli\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eLow- and medium-temperature heat sectors,\u003c/strong\u003e including food and beverages, manufacturing, and chemicals, can decarbonize using existing electrification technologies (Exhibit 2). Many industrial processes such as pasteurization, sterilization, drying, or heating require temperatures well below 600\u0026deg;C. An example in the food industry is milk powder production\u0026mdash;this requires temperatures of up to 250\u0026deg;C and can therefore use electric solutions such as hot air heaters, superheated steam drying, and electric steam boilers.[[footnote 5]]\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003c/ul\u003e\n[[Exhibit 2]]\n\u003cul\u003e\n \u003cli\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eHigh-temperature heat sectors\u003c/strong\u003e have solutions that vary in maturity. At a small scale, industrials often use existing electrification technologies, with industrials in some countries adopting electrification technologies early due to expensive and limited liquid fuels and a focus on small-scale entrepreneurship. In glass and glass wool processes, electrification is relatively advanced, but many industries require further development. Additionally, radiant-based heating is often used for high-temperature heat\u0026mdash;raising the importance of rethinking old furnace designs rather than replicating designs with electrical elements.\u003c/li\u003e\n \u003cli\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eVery high-temperature heat sectors,\u003c/strong\u003e like cement production (which requires temperatures of up to 1,500\u0026deg;C), are available but at an early stage of maturity. New designs, such as Leilac, are well-suited to high-temperature heat processes as they split calcination and clinkerization, with the calcination designed for fuel arbitrage and pure CO\u003csub\u003e2\u003c/sub\u003e production.[[footnote 6]] According to our analysis, retrofitting is expected to have a similar capital expenditure to amine-based carbon capture, with partial electrification also possible. In the alumina production process (where temperatures up to 1,000\u0026deg;C are required), electrifying the calciner can enable steam recovery, which is not achievable in the current fossil fuel-based design. That steam can be used elsewhere in the plant\u0026mdash;for example, in the bauxite digestion process\u0026mdash;and effectively reduce the overall plant energy demand.\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003c/ul\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eHowever, electrification is not a \u0026ldquo;one size fits all\u0026rdquo; lever for decarbonization. Bespoke solutions involving various technologies (like biofuels, geothermal, and nuclear) may be more suitable for processes and sectors across different contexts. For industries such as ethylene production, electrical crackers are being conceived and tested, with some\u0026mdash;including new rotating equipment\u0026mdash;showing improved yield, reduced size, and strong economic incentives.[[footnote 7]] In high temperature processes where high energy density is needed, electrification can be combined with fuel (for example, hydrogen). Further, electricity can be used to preheat air and effectively reduce fuel demand.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003ch2\u003eEconomic feasibility is improving and net-present-value-positive cases present new opportunities\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe economics of decarbonizing heat via electrification are increasingly viable. First, electrification can bring additional benefits such as efficiency gains in the case of heat pumps or even better product yields (for example, in electrified ethylene production).[[footnote 8]]\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eSecond, electricity is already often cheaper than gas. On one hand, the on-site costs of RES are going down and, on the other hand, grid electricity prices are becoming lower in moments of oversupply.[[footnote 9]] Often, these two sources of electricity (on-site RES and grid) can be combined, leading to even lower energy costs. Third, CO\u003csub\u003e2\u003c/sub\u003e prices are effectively making fossil fuels more expensive.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAll these elements together make a good case for considering heat electrification in the industrial context. But, regardless of these overall trends, companies may still need to identify the best way to capture value from decarbonizing heat. Electricity combined with thermal energy storage is expected to have a high potential for several reasons.[[footnote 10]] For one, electric heating can be installed quickly and in parallel to existing heating; for example, using steam, resistive liquid heating, and hot air for drying. In addition, thermal storage can be combined with both grid storage and low-cost, behind-the-meter generation.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe economic potential of electricity combined with thermal storage is supported by the decreasing costs of renewable energy generation. As more renewable electricity capacity becomes available on the grid, prices typically become more volatile. This can create arbitrage opportunities to alleviate grid bottlenecks and stabilize prices.\u003c/p\u003e\n[[sidebar 2]]\n\u003cp\u003eAnother economical advantage of electrification is that the cost of electricity is becoming lower than the cost of gas and CO\u003csub\u003e2\u003c/sub\u003e (Exhibit 3). Drops in prices generally coincide with an oversupply of RES\u0026mdash;this means that \u0026ldquo;cheap hours\u0026rdquo; of electricity availability are also \u0026ldquo;low-emission hours\u0026rdquo; (see sidebar, \u0026ldquo;The advantages of oversizing electricity generation\u0026rdquo;).\u003c/p\u003e\n[[Exhibit 3]]\n\u003cp\u003eWhile the large price swings of 2022 are no longer present, when we look, for example, at Germany and Spain, and consider the price spread between gas and electricity, it becomes apparent that price volatility remains (Exhibit 4). In both examples, the share of hours when electricity was cheaper than gas was around 15 to 25 percent in 2023. Price volatility may increase in the future as additional RES are added to the system.\u003c/p\u003e\n[[Exhibit 4]]\n\u003ch2\u003eUnder the right conditions, electrification could pay back within a year\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eElectrification presents a swift payback time. Our analysis modeled the hourly system operations for Germany and Spain in 2021, 2022, and 2023 to illustrate examples with contexts of historical, (2021) extreme (2022), and current (2023) volatility (Exhibit 5). The model applies a hybrid system with a parallel electric boiler\u0026mdash;a solution that can be applied most easily across industries. This system demonstrated a payback turnaround time of around eight months to five-and-a-half years, based on low capital expenditure (\u0026euro;125,000 per megawatt thermal [MWth]).\u003c/p\u003e\n[[Exhibit 5]]\n\u003cp\u003eOur analysis also considered the increasing role of thermal systems for storing excess energy during periods of volatility. In the modeled cases, we observed payback times of just over one-and-a-half years to over four-and-a-half years. More important, over half of the energy was delivered electrically\u0026mdash;effectively through excess \u0026ldquo;clean\u0026rdquo; electrons. However, the analysis considered that the end user would only pay an additional variable cost for electricity, without having to pay grid fees, given the small size of the boiler (assuming that the capacity was already booked and paid for).\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe current grid fee structure with fixed fees of about \u0026euro;20,000 per megavolt-amperes (MVA) requires at least 3,000 hours of low-cost electricity to enable electrification at scale. However, in many cases, the transmission grid still has capacity, and market building, dynamic pricing, and local grid price-setting based on congestion can create a win\u0026ndash;win\u0026ndash;win (as the grid gets money for capacity not used, industrial players receive cheap heat, and the electricity market has a higher floor).\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003ch2\u003eCompanies can capture the electrification opportunity with an integrated approach\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eCompanies can be proactive in overcoming perceived challenges to electrification by considering four actions.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003col\u003e\n \u003cli\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eDevelop a vision and a case for action:\u003c/strong\u003e Companies with a committed leadership focus and vision for the energy transition could benefit from more cost-effective, sustainable, and resilient energy solutions, including cases with a demonstrated positive net present value (NPV). These solutions can not only improve short-term cost competitiveness and resilience toward energy and carbon price swings but can also fund the subsequent steps of the transition. First movers may gain an additional advantage through green premiums on their products.\u003c/li\u003e\n \u003cli\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eBuild capabilities and constantly renew them:\u003c/strong\u003e To accelerate progress at a lower cost, companies can establish a center of excellence that provides standardized engineering and a centralized platform for sharing best practices. This platform can be boosted by a dedicated technology search function to identify emerging solutions and opportunities for collaborative operating models. Approaches can be driven by a holistic mindset and theoretical limits, rather than incremental improvements. Key capabilities for the cross-functional team can include performance management, advanced analytics, process redesign, heat integration, and sourcing of green energy.\u003c/li\u003e\n \u003cli\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eImplement rigorous delivery models and governance:\u003c/strong\u003e Companies require a rigorous cadence of project planning and implementation to deliver value, codify methodology, and roll out high-impact, repeatable initiatives. Companies can deliver project management approaches to progress and risks in an objective and consistent manner across sites. Bottom-up planning supported by structured, daily performance dialogues can drive team productivity.\u003c/li\u003e\n \u003cli\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eBe bold and use what exists:\u003c/strong\u003e Dare to come with completely new designs by pushing the boundaries and opening the aperture. By using existing funds intended for technology development and decarbonization, industrials can realize bold visions.\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003c/ol\u003e\n\u003chr /\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eElectrifying industrial heat is less challenging than previously believed. Although industrial heat requirements vary widely, commercially available technologies and bespoke design solutions are rapidly filling the gaps. As economic feasibility increases, companies that commit to decarbonization could benefit from both cost-efficiency and emissions reductions on the path to net zero.\u003c/p\u003e"},"isFullScreenInteractive":{"boolValue":false},"hideStickySocialShareBar":{"boolValue":false},"desktopID":{"value":""},"mobileID":{"value":""},"desktopURL":{"value":""},"mobileURL":{"value":""},"desktopPaddingPercentage":{"value":""},"mobilePaddingPercentage":{"value":""},"desktopOverrideHeight":{"value":""},"mobileOverrideHeight":{"value":""},"cerosOembedURL":{"value":""},"cerosRenderMode":{"targetItem":null},"cerosBackgroundColor":{"targetItem":null},"hideByLine":{"boolValue":false},"tableOfContentsTitle":{"value":"TABLE OF CONTENTS"},"accessStatus":{"targetItem":{"key":{"value":"RegisteredUsers"},"value":{"value":"Registered Users"}}},"articleType":{"targetItem":{"displayName":"Article"}},"hasSpecialReport":{"boolValue":false},"contentType":{"targetItem":{"displayName":"Article"}},"sourcePublication":{"targetItem":null},"externalPublication":{"value":""},"excludeFromClientLink":{"boolValue":false},"originalPublishDate":{"jsonValue":{"value":"2024-07-16T00:00:00Z"}},"footnotes":{"value":"\u003col\u003e\n \u003cli\u003e\u0026ldquo;\u003ca href=\"/industries/oil-and-gas/our-insights/global-energy-perspective-2023-industrial-electrification-outlook\"\u003eGlobal energy perspective 2023: Industrial electrification outlook\u003c/a\u003e,\u0026rdquo; McKinsey, January 16, 2024.\u003c/li\u003e\n \u003cli\u003e\u0026ldquo;\u003ca href=\"/industries/oil-and-gas/our-insights/global-energy-perspective-2023-power-outlook\"\u003eGlobal energy perspective 2023: Power outlook\u003c/a\u003e,\u0026rdquo; McKinsey, January 16, 2024.\u003c/li\u003e\n \u003cli\u003eMatthijs de Kempenaer, Rob Jagt, Ken Somers, and Godart van Gendt, \u0026ldquo;\u003ca href=\"/industries/electric-power-and-natural-gas/our-insights/demand-based-pricing-stabilizes-the-electricity-market-of-the-future\"\u003eDemand-based pricing stabilizes the electricity market of the future\u003c/a\u003e,\u0026rdquo; McKinsey, February 28, 2024.\u003c/li\u003e\n \u003cli\u003eLow- and medium-temperature heat is up to 600\u0026deg;C and high temperature above 400\u0026deg;C.\u003c/li\u003e\n \u003cli\u003e\u003cem\u003eBest Available Techniques (BAT) reference document for the food, drink and milk industries\u003c/em\u003e, European Commission, 2019.\u003c/li\u003e\n \u003cli\u003e\u0026ldquo;Sustainable industry. Sustainable planet,\u0026rdquo; World Cement, May 22, 2023.\u003c/li\u003e\n \u003cli\u003eJoonas Rauramo, \u0026ldquo;Vendor viewpoint: How RotoDynamic technology enables clean olefin production,\u0026rdquo; \u003cem\u003eChemical Engineer\u003c/em\u003e, October 21, 2023.\u003c/li\u003e\n \u003cli\u003e\u0026ldquo;Key advantage of RotoDynamic Reactor compared to furnace technology,\u0026rdquo; Coolbrook, 2024.\u003c/li\u003e\n \u003cli\u003eThe price of electricity on short-term wholesale markets, such as the day-ahead market, is determined by the variable cost of the marginal producer, which is the most expensive plant needed to meet demand. When it comes to renewable energy sources (RES), the marginal cost of an additional unit of electricity is zero, resulting in a decrease in electricity prices in the event of an oversupply of RES.\u003c/li\u003e\n \u003cli\u003e\u0026ldquo;\u003ca href=\"/industries/electric-power-and-natural-gas/our-insights/demand-based-pricing-stabilizes-the-electricity-market-of-the-future\"\u003eDemand-based pricing\u003c/a\u003e,\u0026rdquo; February 28, 2024.\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003c/ol\u003e"},"contributoryPractice":{"targetItems":[{"displayName":"McKinsey Sustainability"}]},"aboutTheAuthors":{"value":"\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e\u003ca href=\"/our-people/joris-van-niel\"\u003eJoris van Niel\u003c/a\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e is a partner in McKinsey\u0026rsquo;s Amsterdam office; \u003cstrong\u003e\u003ca href=\"/our-people/ken-somers\"\u003eKen Somers\u003c/a\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e is a partner in the Brussels office, where \u003cstrong\u003eChiara Magni\u003c/strong\u003e is a consultant; and \u003cstrong\u003eMarcin Hajłasz\u003c/strong\u003e is a knowledge expert in the Wroclaw office.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe authors wish to thank Bartosz Browarczyk, Godart van Gendt, Joe Alam, Mohammed Ghonima, Sergio Nistal Prieto, and Tiago Meintjes for their contributions to this article.\u003c/p\u003e"},"authors":{"targetItems":[{"template":{"id":"3FBABDB63A094F68B1F8E1BBE1BA124E","name":"Author"},"id":"8A3F276A6D8A4048BE4C6C2A62F7A4EE","name":"Joris Van Niel","authorTitle":{"value":"Joris van Niel"},"description":{"value":""},"thumbnailImage":{"alt":"","src":null},"profile":{"targetItems":[{"standardImage":{"src":"/~/media/mckinsey/our people/joris van niel/joris-van-niel_fc_mask_profile_1536x1152.jpg","alt":""},"emailLinks":{"value":"Joris_Van_Niel@mckinsey.com"},"linkedInUrl":{"value":"https://www.linkedin.com/in/joris-van-niel-16567627/?originalSubdomain=nl"},"description":{"value":"Brings digital and advanced analytics approaches to help companies in process industries improve efficiency and transform their operations"},"locations":{"targetItems":[{"name":"Amsterdam","displayName":"Amsterdam"}]},"firmTitle":{"value":"Partner"},"thumbnailImage":{"alt":"","src":"/~/media/mckinsey/our people/joris van niel/joris-van-niel_fc-mask_headshot_988x741.jpg"},"url":{"path":"/our-people/joris-van-niel"}}]}},{"template":{"id":"3FBABDB63A094F68B1F8E1BBE1BA124E","name":"Author"},"id":"AC6C3489AB614499820B3D52AB5995C2","name":"Ken Somers","authorTitle":{"value":"Ken Somers"},"description":{"value":""},"thumbnailImage":{"alt":"","src":null},"profile":{"targetItems":[{"standardImage":{"src":"/~/media/mckinsey/our people/ken somers/ken_somers_4897-1_fc-mask_profile_1536x1152.png","alt":"Ken Somers"},"emailLinks":{"value":"Ken_Somers@mckinsey.com"},"linkedInUrl":{"value":"https://www.linkedin.com/in/ken-somers-4196776"},"description":{"value":"Brings a wealth of operational expertise to help clients in manufacturing industries decarbonize, increase yields, and achieve greater energy efficiency"},"locations":{"targetItems":[{"name":"Brussels","displayName":"Brussels"}]},"firmTitle":{"value":"Partner"},"thumbnailImage":{"alt":"Ken Somers","src":"/~/media/mckinsey/our people/ken somers/ken_somers_4897-1_fc-mask_headshot_988x741.png"},"url":{"path":"/our-people/ken-somers"}}]}}]},"nonPartnerAuthors":{"targetItems":[{"template":{"id":"3FBABDB63A094F68B1F8E1BBE1BA124E","name":"Author"},"id":"C81DD45D454F462E87D061C2A436946C","name":"Chiara Magni","authorTitle":{"value":"Chiara Magni"},"description":{"value":""},"thumbnailImage":{"alt":"","src":null},"profile":{"targetItems":[]}},{"template":{"id":"3FBABDB63A094F68B1F8E1BBE1BA124E","name":"Author"},"id":"BB0E44219909495FAD472E49DBF3B24C","name":"Marcin Hajlasz","authorTitle":{"value":"Marcin 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Each heat demand source was evaluated for potential electrification using solutions that are either available on the market today or are in advanced development stage. For temperatures below 600\u003csup\u003eo\u003c/sup\u003eC, electrification is possible today with mature equipment. For higher temperatures, the electrification potential is close to 100 percent, but the technology needs more maturation.\u003c/p\u003e"}},"aboutTheAuthors":{"jsonValue":{"value":""}},"headline":{"jsonValue":{"value":"Our analysis"}},"footnotes":{"value":""},"showShareTools":{"boolValue":true},"backgroundColor":{"targetItem":null},"gradientDirection":{"targetItem":{"key":{"value":"Bottom Right"},"value":{"value":"bottom-right"}}},"renderMode":{"targetItem":{"key":{"value":"Collapsible"},"value":{"value":"default"}}},"isAboutAuthor":{"boolValue":false},"background":{"targetItem":null},"image":{"src":null,"alt":""}},{"mediaID":{"value":"2"},"description":{"jsonValue":{"value":"\u003cp\u003eThe electrification of heat, particularly with thermal energy storage, can give additional degrees of freedom when designing overall plant energy procurement. For example, many companies install solar photovoltaic (PV) systems to provide part of their electricity demand. Typically, the size of the solar panels is capped by the demand in the peak production time, which is the middle of the day. In the morning and evening hours, solar panels provide only a small amount of the energy supply. When the plant decides to electrify heat, the constraint on maximum capacity is released and it can oversize its RES generation.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAdditional production of energy in peak time can be used to generate heat or be stored in thermal storage for later use. 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