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Over the 10 years from March 2014 to March 2024, New Zealand's CPI had risen by 30.3 per cent and Australia's CPI had…" /> </head> <body class="post-template-default single single-post postid-71239 single-format-standard customizer-styles-applied jetpack-reblog-enabled custom-colors"> <div id="page" class="hfeed site"> <a class="skip-link screen-reader-text" href="#content">Skip to content</a> <header id="masthead" class="site-header clearfix" role="banner"> <div class="site-branding"> <a href="https://croakingcassandra.com/" class="site-logo-link" rel="home" itemprop="url"></a> <h1 class="site-title"><a href="https://croakingcassandra.com/" rel="home">croaking cassandra</a></h1> <h2 class="site-description">Economics, public policy, monetary policy, financial regulation, with a New Zealand perspective</h2> </div> <nav id="site-navigation" class="main-navigation nav-horizontal" role="navigation"> <button class="menu-toggle" aria-controls="primary-menu" aria-expanded="false">Menu</button> <div id="primary-menu" class="menu"><ul> <li ><a href="https://croakingcassandra.com/">Home</a></li><li class="page_item page-item-1"><a href="https://croakingcassandra.com/about/">About Michael Reddell’s blog</a></li> <li class="page_item page-item-66509"><a href="https://croakingcassandra.com/book-reviews/">Book reviews</a></li> <li class="page_item page-item-58338"><a href="https://croakingcassandra.com/china-prc/">China (PRC)</a></li> <li class="page_item page-item-71258"><a href="https://croakingcassandra.com/early-mpss-and-economic-projections/">MPSs & Economic Forecasts from early-mid 90s</a></li> <li class="page_item page-item-8395"><a href="https://croakingcassandra.com/papers-and-speeches/">Papers and speeches</a></li> <li class="page_item page-item-70350"><a href="https://croakingcassandra.com/reserve-bank-of-new-zealand-superannuation-scheme/">Reserve Bank of New Zealand Superannuation Scheme</a></li> </ul></div> </nav> </header> <div id="content" class="site-content clearfix"> <div class="breadcrumbs"> <a class="breadcrumbs-root" href="https://croakingcassandra.com/">Home</a><span class="breadcrumbs-current">Two central banks</span> </div> <div class="primary content-area"> <main id="main" class="site-main" role="main"> <div class="article-wrapper"> <article id="post-71239" class="post-71239 post type-post status-publish format-standard hentry category-australia category-monetary-policy category-mpc"> <header class="entry-header"> <h1 class="entry-title">Two central banks</h1> <div class="entry-meta"> <span class="posted-on"><a href="https://croakingcassandra.com/2024/05/17/two-central-banks/" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date published" datetime="2024-05-17T09:00:23+12:00">May 17, 2024</time><time class="updated" datetime="2024-05-17T09:11:09+12:00">May 17, 2024</time></a></span> <span class="byline"><span class="author vcard"><a class="url fn n" href="https://croakingcassandra.com/author/mhreddell/">Michael Reddell</a></span></span> <span class="entry-categories"><a href="https://croakingcassandra.com/category/australia/" rel="category tag">Australia</a>, <a href="https://croakingcassandra.com/category/monetary-policy/" rel="category tag">Monetary policy</a>, <a href="https://croakingcassandra.com/category/mpc/" rel="category tag">MPC</a></span> </div> </header> <div class="entry-content"> <p>I got curious yesterday about how the Australia/New Zealand real exchange rate had changed over the last decade, and so dug out the data on the changes in the two countries’ CPIs. Over the 10 years from March 2014 to March 2024, New Zealand’s CPI had risen by 30.3 per cent and Australia’s CPI had risen by 30.4 per cent.</p> <p>And that piqued my interest because the two countries have different inflation targets: New Zealand’s centred on 2 per cent per annum and Australia’s centred on 2.5 per cent.</p> <p>So I drew myself this chart</p> <figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><a href="https://croakingcassandra.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/image-26.png"><img data-attachment-id="71256" data-permalink="https://croakingcassandra.com/2024/05/17/two-central-banks/image-26-15/#main" data-orig-file="https://croakingcassandra.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/image-26.png" data-orig-size="891,633" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"0"}" data-image-title="image-26" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="" data-medium-file="https://croakingcassandra.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/image-26.png?w=300" data-large-file="https://croakingcassandra.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/image-26.png?w=700" width="891" height="633" src="https://croakingcassandra.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/image-26.png?w=891" alt="" class="wp-image-71256" srcset="https://croakingcassandra.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/image-26.png 891w, https://croakingcassandra.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/image-26.png?w=150 150w, https://croakingcassandra.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/image-26.png?w=300 300w, https://croakingcassandra.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/image-26.png?w=768 768w" sizes="(max-width: 891px) 100vw, 891px" /></a></figure> <p>Over the full 10 years, the two CPIs have increased by almost exactly the same amount, but they haven’t kept pace with each other steadily over that full period. Up to just prior to Covid, the Australian CPI had been increasing faster than New Zealand’s, as one might have expected given that the RBA had been given a higher inflation target than the RBNZ.</p> <p>Now, before anyone objects, I should get in and note that in neither country is there a price level target. But if economies are subject to fairly similar shocks over a period of time one should normally expect a country with a higher inflation target to have experienced a higher cumulative price level increase than a country with a lower target.</p> <p>Over the 10 years here is Australia’s CPI relative to the price level that would have been implied by being consistently at target midpoint</p> <figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><a href="https://croakingcassandra.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/image-24.png"><img data-attachment-id="71250" data-permalink="https://croakingcassandra.com/2024/05/17/two-central-banks/image-24-15/#main" data-orig-file="https://croakingcassandra.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/image-24.png" data-orig-size="752,570" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"0"}" data-image-title="image-24" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="" data-medium-file="https://croakingcassandra.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/image-24.png?w=300" data-large-file="https://croakingcassandra.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/image-24.png?w=700" width="752" height="570" src="https://croakingcassandra.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/image-24.png?w=752" alt="" class="wp-image-71250" srcset="https://croakingcassandra.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/image-24.png 752w, https://croakingcassandra.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/image-24.png?w=150 150w, https://croakingcassandra.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/image-24.png?w=300 300w" sizes="(max-width: 752px) 100vw, 752px" /></a></figure> <p>and the same chart for New Zealand</p> <figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><a href="https://croakingcassandra.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/image-23.png"><img data-attachment-id="71249" data-permalink="https://croakingcassandra.com/2024/05/17/two-central-banks/image-23-15/#main" data-orig-file="https://croakingcassandra.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/image-23.png" data-orig-size="752,601" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"0"}" data-image-title="image-23" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="" data-medium-file="https://croakingcassandra.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/image-23.png?w=300" data-large-file="https://croakingcassandra.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/image-23.png?w=700" width="752" height="601" src="https://croakingcassandra.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/image-23.png?w=752" alt="" class="wp-image-71249" srcset="https://croakingcassandra.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/image-23.png 752w, https://croakingcassandra.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/image-23.png?w=150 150w, https://croakingcassandra.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/image-23.png?w=300 300w" sizes="(max-width: 752px) 100vw, 752px" /></a></figure> <p>And in this chart I’ve put it all together</p> <figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><a href="https://croakingcassandra.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/image-25.png"><img data-attachment-id="71251" data-permalink="https://croakingcassandra.com/2024/05/17/two-central-banks/image-25-15/#main" data-orig-file="https://croakingcassandra.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/image-25.png" data-orig-size="934,622" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"0"}" data-image-title="image-25" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="" data-medium-file="https://croakingcassandra.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/image-25.png?w=300" data-large-file="https://croakingcassandra.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/image-25.png?w=700" loading="lazy" width="934" height="622" src="https://croakingcassandra.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/image-25.png?w=934" alt="" class="wp-image-71251" srcset="https://croakingcassandra.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/image-25.png 934w, https://croakingcassandra.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/image-25.png?w=150 150w, https://croakingcassandra.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/image-25.png?w=300 300w, https://croakingcassandra.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/image-25.png?w=768 768w" sizes="(max-width: 934px) 100vw, 934px" /></a></figure> <p>Over the half-decade or so to the end of 2019, the RBA and the RBNZ had both ended up undershooting (on average) their targets by about the same extent. If you look closely, the RBNZ was undershooting more earlier, and the RBA more towards the end of the decade, but there wasn’t a great deal in the difference.</p> <p>But where the difference really becomes apparent is in the years (four of them) since Covid hit. Over that period, the RBNZ has generated/tolerated much more of an increase in the price level, in excess of what is implied by their target, than the RBA did. (And for those – like Orr – who like to try distraction with things like oil shocks, wars and rumours of wars, and supply chain disruptions, Australia faced all those too.)</p> <p>There is a lot of focus in Australia – and apparently reasonably enough – on whether the RBA has yet done enough with monetary policy. It has certainly been puzzling that they reckoned they could get away with materially lower policy rates than in other Anglo countries, in the face of (still) near-record low rates of unemployment and a quite stimulatory fiscal policy. But so far, and overall, they’ve done a bit less badly than the Reserve Bank of New Zealand through the last four years taken together. </p> <p>It remains somewhat remarkable how little serious accountability there has been for serious Reserve Bank policy errors, for which now pretty much everyone (except them) is paying the price. in one form or another.</p> <p>(By the way, for anyone interested, the NZD/AUD exchange rate averaged 0.933 in the March 2014 quarter and 0.932 in the March 2024 quarter, so over that particular 10 year period there was no change in the real exchange rate at all.)</p> <div id="jp-post-flair" class="sharedaddy sd-like-enabled sd-sharing-enabled"><div class="sharedaddy sd-sharing-enabled"><div class="robots-nocontent sd-block sd-social sd-social-icon-text sd-sharing"><h3 class="sd-title">Share this:</h3><div class="sd-content"><ul><li class="share-twitter"><a rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" data-shared="sharing-twitter-71239" class="share-twitter sd-button share-icon" href="https://croakingcassandra.com/2024/05/17/two-central-banks/?share=twitter" target="_blank" title="Click to share on Twitter" ><span>Twitter</span></a></li><li class="share-facebook"><a rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" data-shared="sharing-facebook-71239" class="share-facebook sd-button share-icon" href="https://croakingcassandra.com/2024/05/17/two-central-banks/?share=facebook" target="_blank" title="Click to share on Facebook" ><span>Facebook</span></a></li><li class="share-end"></li></ul></div></div></div><div class='sharedaddy sd-block sd-like jetpack-likes-widget-wrapper jetpack-likes-widget-unloaded' id='like-post-wrapper-85004741-71239-674cc1a2033c2' data-src='//widgets.wp.com/likes/index.html?ver=20241201#blog_id=85004741&post_id=71239&origin=croakingcassandra.wordpress.com&obj_id=85004741-71239-674cc1a2033c2&domain=croakingcassandra.com' data-name='like-post-frame-85004741-71239-674cc1a2033c2' data-title='Like or Reblog'><div class='likes-widget-placeholder post-likes-widget-placeholder' style='height: 55px;'><span class='button'><span>Like</span></span> <span class='loading'>Loading...</span></div><span class='sd-text-color'></span><a class='sd-link-color'></a></div></div> </div> <footer class="entry-meta"> </footer> </article> </div> <nav role="navigation" id="nav-below" class="post-navigation"> <h1 class="screen-reader-text">Post navigation</h1> <div class="nav-previous"><a href="https://croakingcassandra.com/2024/05/16/words-and-inactions/" rel="prev"><span class="meta-nav">←</span> Words and (in)actions</a></div> <div class="nav-next"><a href="https://croakingcassandra.com/2024/05/17/some-old-documents-of-no-immediate-interest/" rel="next">Some old documents (of no immediate interest) <span class="meta-nav">→</span></a></div> </nav> <div id="comments" class="comments-area clearfix"> <div class="comments-wrapper"> <h2 class="comments-title"> 2 thoughts on “<span>Two central banks</span>” </h2> <ol class="comment-list"> <li id="comment-82271" class="comment even thread-even depth-1"> <article id="div-comment-82271" class="comment-body"> <footer class="comment-meta"> <div class="comment-author vcard"> <img alt='' src='https://2.gravatar.com/avatar/26762cc4c1eaf23e34a35a6bbd9f9620a6ef822f2d49ea63795295239b8a402f?s=60&d=identicon&r=G' srcset='https://2.gravatar.com/avatar/26762cc4c1eaf23e34a35a6bbd9f9620a6ef822f2d49ea63795295239b8a402f?s=60&d=identicon&r=G 1x, https://2.gravatar.com/avatar/26762cc4c1eaf23e34a35a6bbd9f9620a6ef822f2d49ea63795295239b8a402f?s=90&d=identicon&r=G 1.5x, https://2.gravatar.com/avatar/26762cc4c1eaf23e34a35a6bbd9f9620a6ef822f2d49ea63795295239b8a402f?s=120&d=identicon&r=G 2x, https://2.gravatar.com/avatar/26762cc4c1eaf23e34a35a6bbd9f9620a6ef822f2d49ea63795295239b8a402f?s=180&d=identicon&r=G 3x, https://2.gravatar.com/avatar/26762cc4c1eaf23e34a35a6bbd9f9620a6ef822f2d49ea63795295239b8a402f?s=240&d=identicon&r=G 4x' class='avatar avatar-60' height='60' width='60' loading='lazy' decoding='async' /> <b class="fn">getgreatstuff</b> <span class="says">says:</span> </div> <div class="comment-metadata"> <a href="https://croakingcassandra.com/2024/05/17/two-central-banks/#comment-82271"><time datetime="2024-05-17T09:29:43+12:00">May 17, 2024 at 9:29 am</time></a> </div> </footer> <div class="comment-content"> <p>The size of the market matters to pricing policy. A larger market in Australia, allows for larger volumes where smaller margins can achieve a similar profit as compared with a similar company in New Zealand that needs to price in a larger margin due to a smaller volume market.</p> <p id="comment-like-82271" data-liked=comment-not-liked class="comment-likes comment-not-liked"><a href="https://croakingcassandra.com/2024/05/17/two-central-banks/?like_comment=82271&_wpnonce=8af8bbb311" class="comment-like-link needs-login" rel="nofollow" data-blog="85004741"><span>Like</span></a><span id="comment-like-count-82271" class="comment-like-feedback">Like</span></p> </div> <div class="reply"><a rel="nofollow" class="comment-reply-link" href="https://croakingcassandra.com/2024/05/17/two-central-banks/?replytocom=82271#respond" data-commentid="82271" data-postid="71239" data-belowelement="div-comment-82271" data-respondelement="respond" data-replyto="Reply to getgreatstuff" aria-label="Reply to getgreatstuff">Reply</a></div> </article> </li> <li id="comment-82274" class="pingback odd alt thread-odd thread-alt depth-1"> <article id="div-comment-82274" class="comment-body"> <footer class="comment-meta"> <div class="comment-author vcard"> <img alt='' src='https://pointofordernz.files.wordpress.com/2018/06/cropped-beehive-wellington-parliament-2842.jpg?w=60' srcset='https://pointofordernz.files.wordpress.com/2018/06/cropped-beehive-wellington-parliament-2842.jpg?w=60 1x, https://pointofordernz.files.wordpress.com/2018/06/cropped-beehive-wellington-parliament-2842.jpg?w=90 1.5x, https://pointofordernz.files.wordpress.com/2018/06/cropped-beehive-wellington-parliament-2842.jpg?w=120 2x, https://pointofordernz.files.wordpress.com/2018/06/cropped-beehive-wellington-parliament-2842.jpg?w=180 3x, https://pointofordernz.files.wordpress.com/2018/06/cropped-beehive-wellington-parliament-2842.jpg?w=240 4x' class='avatar avatar-60' height='60' width='60' loading='lazy' decoding='async' /> <b class="fn"><a href="https://pointofordernz.wordpress.com/2024/05/17/two-central-banks/" class="url" rel="ugc external nofollow">Two central banks – Point of Order</a></b> <span class="says">says:</span> </div> <div class="comment-metadata"> <a href="https://croakingcassandra.com/2024/05/17/two-central-banks/#comment-82274"><time datetime="2024-05-17T13:02:18+12:00">May 17, 2024 at 1:02 pm</time></a> </div> </footer> <div class="comment-content"> <p>[…] This article by Michael Reddell was first published on his blog, Croaking Cassandra. 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