2022年1月5日期货公司沪铝短线操作建议-我的钢铁网

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<p>宏观方面，上一交易日美元指数小幅走强，维持在96上方，市场避险情绪未有进一步强化，但货币政策预期仍对美元指数仍存在较强支撑。供应方面，山西近期因自然灾害，限产限电，采暖季节到来等因素导致供应紧缺，近期山西河南都已经恢复正常生产，因之前<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-967-----0202-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>铝</a>土矿供给不足，库存相对紧张，各厂家正在积极补充库存，虽然恢复生产，缓解了库存压力，但是资源还是处于紧缺状态，预测近期铝土矿价格不会下调，后期会有震荡趋势；罗马尼亚ALRO铝业宣布2022年原铝产量将减产，由五个电解车间减至两个电解车间，在原铝减产的同时，公司计划保持甚至是提高加工产品产量，2022年原铝减产量将部分由再生金属或从第三方采购原铝来弥补。需求方面，临近年底电解铝库存持续去库，归结原因一部分因为担心铝材出口退税取消的影响，各地大中型铝材厂普遍出现“抢出口”的情况，但从铝板带箔、铝杆、铝棒等需求来看，临近年底，多数铝材企业及经销商对本年度订单进行收尾工作，回笼资金，预期消费改善空间也不大。库存方面，中国主要地区电解铝出库量（12.26-1.2）约15.8万吨，较上期数据减少1.1万吨，去年同期为13万吨，分地区来看，无<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-967-----0207-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>锡</a>地区出库量减少明显，杭州、佛山地区出库量小幅减少，上海、巩义、重庆地区库存略有增加，天津、沈阳、常州地区出库量维持平稳。综上所述，沪铝在国内供给端无新增限产的情况下，短期国内基本面趋向转弱，或将限制价格上涨空间。</p> <p>新湖期货</p> <p>市场无视疫情，通胀预期高涨推升多头情绪，隔夜外盘金属全线上涨，伦交所三月期<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-967-----0202-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>铝价</a>收涨0.69%至2832.5美元/吨。沪期铝夜盘震荡收高，主力2202合约收于20300元/吨。早间现货市场整体成交尚可，下游节后有补库需求，中间商、贸易商表现也较积极。上海主流成交价格在20100元/吨上下，较期货贴水30左右。广东主流成交在20120元/吨上下。当前国内供需基本面仍未有明显扭转，复产进度缓慢，产量维持低位运行。当前市场多头氛围较浓。不过随着消费积极性走弱，市场进入垒库阶段，价格上方空间有限。操作上建议暂且以观望为主。</p> <p>弘业期货</p> <p>美国12月ISM制造业指数录得58.7，远低于预期，并创12个月新低，预期 60，前值 61.1。美国11月辞职人数达到创纪录的450万，空缺职位居高不下。欧洲CPI数据小幅低于预期。美国经济数据大幅不及预期，隔夜市场情绪好转，美元冲高回落，<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-967-----02-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>有色金属</a>夜盘多数大涨。昨日<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-967-----0502-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>煤炭</a>大涨后夜盘小幅下跌，伦铝探底回升转涨，收于2832美元.沪铝昨日大跌后，夜盘小幅高开，震荡收十字星。沪铝成交持仓均上升，市场情绪偏向乐观。沪铝走势不太活跃，但基本面好转，后市可能继续随伦铝继续震荡上行。上方压力22000，下方支撑19000。</p> <p class="editer"></p>  <br /> </div> </div> </article> <article class="content-block m-copyRight"> 资讯编辑：万紫琴 021-66896822 </br> 资讯监督：王宏飞 010-57930636 </br> 资讯投诉：陈杰 021-26093100 </br> </article> <article class="content-block m-copyRight 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