Mysteel：国庆节后全国铝板带箔消费将进一步回暖-我的钢铁网

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<p><strong>九月回顾</strong></p> <p>8月中下旬，随着<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-967-----0202-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>铝价</a>的触底反弹、终端客户买涨不买跌心理的双重叠加，<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-967-----0202-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>铝</a>板带箔消费冲破淡季的重重迷雾，开始转暖。然而进入九月，地产行业开始复工复产、传统汽车及新能源汽车车企开始备货、多重贸易争端担忧下海外订单抢出口，这些因素共同助推9月铝板带箔消费强劲复苏。</p> <p>通过数据对比，我们也能看到，截止9月25日，铝板带样本企业产量29.882万吨，较8月底上涨4.73%，较去年同期上涨12.88%；铝箔样本企业产量8.326万吨，较去年同期上涨1.36%；铝板带箔行业产能利用率74.46%，较8月底上涨2.78个百分点，较去年同期上涨3.85个百分点。</p> <p align="center"><img src="//img05.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2024/09/27/3a0208fc1b2b4072b6f5940b55eb91cd.png" alt="" width="464" height="265" /> </p> <p>分领域来看，建筑领域，虽然房地产开工及竣工面积数据持续低迷，但铝板带箔的幕墙板、天花板主要用于商用建筑，且多为存量建筑的改善性装饰需求。进入九月以来，随着工地及建筑装修的复工复产，建筑用铝卷也迎来消费的复苏。汽车领域，四季度为汽车行业产销旺季，而车企为更好的组织生产，于九月上中旬开始向铝板带箔企业下单订货，以确保10月初能到货正常安排生产。</p> <p>2024年，铝板带箔厂内成品库存整体偏低，主要受订单好转，客户提货积极性好转导致。而临近国庆假期，一方面铝板带箔企业因国庆期间会暂停发货，为控制成品库存，均于国庆节前全力清理库存；另一方面，随着近日央行宣布多项利好政策，终端客户恐节后铝价大涨增加其采购成本，节前提货积极性也有所好转。因此，节前铝板带箔成品库存出现一定幅度下滑。</p> <p style="text-align: center;"><img src="//img06.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2024/09/27/7560314f51b54bbb8f61e20d150ddab8.png" alt="" width="451" height="260" /> </p> <p>通过数据对比，截止9月25日，铝板带样本企业成品库存29.882万吨，较8月底下滑8.41%，较去年同期下跌9.67%；铝箔样本企业成品库存11.035万吨，较8月底下滑7.15%，较去年同期下跌16.79%。</p> <p>近年来，由于铝价处于历史偏高位置，且企业采购心态更趋保守，2024年铝板带箔厂内铝锭原料库存天数集中于1-2天。而临近国庆假期，随着订单的逐步回暖，以及铝板带箔企业对后期消费的积极预期，节前备货情绪高涨，厂内铝锭库存增加明显。具体数据来看，截止9月25日，铝板带箔样本企业原料铝锭库存26.4万吨，较8月底上涨61.86%，较去年同期上涨3.33%。</p> <p align="center"><img src="//img07.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2024/09/27/edc9c9f6a9554508981e1d33aa9d13e2.png" alt="" width="512" height="297" /> </p> <p>然而，铝板带箔市场并非十全十美、花团锦簇，行业依旧存在企业间恶性竞争、产品加工费下滑、利润收窄、贸易摩擦频发等问题。</p> <p>2024年以来，随着市场竞争进一步加剧，5系汽车用铝、易拉罐料、电池箔加工费都有不同程度下降。而 9月上旬，由于某龙头企业为进一步抢占市场，降低了5系<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-968-----01010302-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>普板</a>的加工费，当地中小企业也纷纷降价。截至9月底，河南地区1060铝幕墙卷加工费均价降至1000元/吨，较上月下跌100元/吨，更有个别品牌价格降至900元/吨；5052汽车用铝加工费均价降至2800元/吨，较上月下降200元/吨；15μm电池箔加工费均价降至10000元/吨，较上月下降2000元/吨。</p> <p><img style="display: block; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;" src="//img08.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2024/09/27/6c693c60f2aa4101a9186a38f3e53f6d.png" alt="" width="600" height="399.76662777129525" /></p> <p><strong>十月展望</strong></p> <p>临近国庆假期，铝板带箔企业与往年一样，节假日期间照常生产，未有停减产计划，生产工人实行轮休以保证生产，部分企业暂停发货3-5天，销售及后勤人员有3-7天假期不等。为了保证生产，铝板带箔企业已在节前完成了铝锭的备货，以及成品库存的处理。</p> <p>值得喜人的是，大部分企业反馈目前接到的10月订单充足，按照排产计划预计，节后企业开工及产量将会进一步增加，但各类产品销量出现分化：建筑幕墙卷、家电3c铝卷、罐车车身、汽车用铝、电池壳等产品销量均出现明显好转，而空调箔、易拉罐料、包装箔等产品开始进入淡季销量下滑，值得注意的是，受市场看好的电池箔，因加工费下滑利润收窄，已有部分企业开始主动减产，转而生产其他双零箔产品。</p> <p style="text-align: center;"> </p>  <br /> </div> </div> </article> <article class="content-block m-copyRight"> 资讯编辑：张瑜南昌 021-26093399 </br> 资讯监督：王宏飞 010-57930636 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