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class="AuthorsByLine_mck-c-authors-byline__author__XdrlD"><span class="AuthorsByLine_mck-c-authors-byline__no-wrap__Ced0j">Mark Bakker<span> </span></span></span><span class="AuthorsByLine_mck-c-authors-byline__author__XdrlD"><span class="AuthorsByLine_mck-c-authors-byline__no-wrap__Ced0j"><a data-component="mdc-c-link" href="/our-people/zak-cutler" class="mdc-c-link-inline___7DRrt_8032924 mdc-c-link-inline--secondary___YKoOK_8032924"><span class="mdc-c-link__label___Pfqtd_8032924">Zak Cutler</span></a></span></span></div><div class="mdc-u-grid-col-md-start-8 mdc-u-grid-col-md-end-12 mdc-u-grid-col-lg-start-8 mdc-u-grid-col-lg-end-11 ArticleContent_mck-c-article-content__share-tools__kWRRw"></div></section><section class="mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-col-md-12 mck-u-animation-blur-in-400"><div class="mdc-u-grid-col-md-start-2 mdc-u-grid-col-md-end-12 mdc-u-grid-col-lg-start-3 mdc-u-grid-col-lg-end-11"><div data-component="mdc-c-description" class="mdc-c-description___SrnQP_8032924 mdc-u-ts-5"><div class="mck-u-links-inline">Most capital projects overrun schedules and exceed budgets. A new delivery system for capital expenditures can help reduce costs and increase efficiency for green tech projects.</div></div></div></section><main data-layer-region="article-body" class="mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-gutter-xxl"><div class="mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-col-1 mdc-u-grid-col-md-12"><div class="mdc-u-grid-col-md-start-2 mdc-u-grid-col-md-end-12 mdc-u-grid-col-lg-start-3 mdc-u-grid-col-lg-end-11"><div class="mdc-o-content-body mck-u-dropcap"> <div class="mck-o-sidebar mck-o-xs-right-span"><div data-component="mdc-c-module-wrapper" data-module-theme="default" data-module-background="transparent" data-module-category="" class="DownloadsSidebar_mck-c-downloads-sidebar__iFmyt mck-o-xs-right-span"><div data-layer-region="downloads-right-rail"><h3 data-component="mdc-c-heading" class="mdc-c-heading___0fM1W_8032924 mdc-c-heading--title___5qyOB_8032924 mdc-c-heading--border___K8dj3_8032924"></h3><div><div data-component="mdc-c-link-container" class="mdc-c-link-container___xefGu_8032924"><a data-component="mdc-c-link" href="#/download/%2F~%2Fmedia%2Fmckinsey%2Fbusiness%20functions%2Foperations%2Four%20insights%2Fgii%2Fvoices%2Fthe%20plant%20as%20a%20product%20hyperscaling%20green%20capex%2Fthe-plant-as-a-product-hyperscaling-green-capex.pdf%3FshouldIndex%3Dfalse" class="DownloadsSidebar_mck-c-downloads-sidebar__download-link__fPqFQ mdc-c-link___lBbY1_8032924" target="_self" data-layer-event-prefix="Download Link" data-layer-action="click" data-layer-report-type="" data-layer-file-name="the-plant-as-a-product-hyperscaling-green-capex" data-layer-report-name="the-plant-as-a-product-hyperscaling-green-capex>"><span data-component="mdc-c-icon" class="mdc-c-icon___oi7ef_8032924 mdc-c-icon--size-md___yi5fA_8032924 mck-download-icon"></span><span class="mdc-c-link__label___Pfqtd_8032924"> (5 pages)</span></a></div></div></div></div></div> <p><strong>As industry players race</strong> to meet increasingly ambitious net-zero emissions targets, it’s clear that capital expenditure costs need to be reduced while project timelines are accelerated. This is particularly true for the construction of gigafactories, which are critical to hyperscale the green technologies needed to meet climate targets by 2050, including renewable energy sources, hydrogen, batteries, and carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS).</p> <p>Our estimates show that achieving carbon reduction targets will require the equivalent of 7.5 percent of global GDP in green capital expenditures by 2030. In turn, this capital expenditure will play a critical role in setting future costs of products, ultimately determining 10 to 15 percent of the cost of batteries and an even higher percentage of the cost of green hydrogen and ammonia.</p> <p>Given that players in new green tech sectors typically have no blueprint for factory and production process design, industry leaders can borrow recent insights from battery manufacturing to drive down costs. On this point, a fundamentally new delivery system for capital expenditures, known as the plant-as-a-product approach, can help players industrialize the end-to-end process of designing and delivering gigafactory projects.</p> <p>By reducing both costs at the plant level and lead times for green capital expenditures, the plant-as-a-product approach can lower capital expenditure costs by 10 to 20 percent for the first plant, with ultimate capital expenditure reductions reaching as much as 75 percent.</p> <h2>Global investment in green technologies: An overview</h2> <p>Meeting the world’s decarbonization goals is a significant challenge in terms of both increasing capital expenditures and overcoming technological limitations. That said, the main types of investments being made today are related to hydrogen (green steel, hydrogen plants, and green ammonia), battery gigafactories, renewables, and carbon capture technologies, all of which are necessary to help reach decarbonization goals by 2050. In Europe alone, 30 battery gigafactories will be built over the next seven years to help meet rapidly increasing demand for electric-vehicle batteries.</p> <div data-component="mdc-c-module-wrapper" data-module-theme="default" data-module-background="transparent" data-module-category="" class="mck-c-disruptor1up mck-o-md-center mck-u-inline-module-border-top mck-u-inline-module-border-bottom mck-u-screen-only" data-layer-region="disruptor-1up"><div class="mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-gutter-md mdc-u-grid-col-lg-12 mdc-u-grid-col-md-12 "><div class="mdc-u-grid-col-md-span-12"><header data-component="mdc-c-header" class="mdc-c-header"><div class="mdc-c-header__block___i1Lg-_8032924"><h3 data-component="mdc-c-heading" class="mdc-c-heading___0fM1W_8032924"><div>Would you like to learn more about our <a href="/capabilities/sustainability/how-we-help-clients/battery-accelerator-team">Battery Accelerator Team</a>?</div></h3></div></header><div data-component="mdc-c-link-container" class="mdc-c-link-container___xefGu_8032924 mdc-c-link-container--display-column___X0HDD_8032924 mck-c-disruptor1up__content Disruptor1Up_mck-c-disruptor1up__content--links__VV4lE mdc-u-grid-gutter-md"><a data-component="mdc-c-link" href="/capabilities/sustainability/how-we-help-clients/battery-accelerator-team" class="mdc-c-link-cta___NBQVi_8032924"><span class="mdc-c-link__label___Pfqtd_8032924">Visit our page</span><span data-component="mdc-c-icon" class="mdc-c-icon___oi7ef_8032924 mck-link-arrow-right-icon"></span></a></div></div></div></div> <p>In addition, companies around the world are planning to build hundreds of installations for hydrogen, many of which will be highly accelerated because of recent stimulus programs, such as the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act and the Inflation Reduction Act in the United States.<span class="FootNote_footnote-holder__tjRqy"><a aria-label="footnote" href="javascript:void(0);" class="FootNote_footnote-wrapper__AIRwL undefined FootNote_bottom__9aoSL FootNote_inactive__VZfCp" aria-describedby="ea0c5a5e-c332-4bbf-a153-0fcbb8f447de"><sup class="FootNote_footnotesup__e73z_">1</sup><span class="FootNote_notch-wrapper__b_5NS"><span class="FootNote_notch__omKtY"></span></span><span class="FootNote_tooltip__QtrbA mdc-u-mt-2"><span class="FootNote_footnote-content__r2OVl"><span id="ea0c5a5e-c332-4bbf-a153-0fcbb8f447de" aria-hidden="true" data-module-theme="light" class="FootNote_footnote-text__VjKgO mck-u-links-inline">For more, see Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act of 2022, Pub. L. No. 117-58; and Inflation Reduction Act of 2022, Pub. L. No. 117-169.</span></span></span></a></span> As part of the former, the US Department of Energy has allocated $9.5 billion to fund clean-hydrogen hubs, electrolysis programs, and manufacturing and recycling programs.<span class="FootNote_footnote-holder__tjRqy"><a aria-label="footnote" href="javascript:void(0);" class="FootNote_footnote-wrapper__AIRwL undefined FootNote_bottom__9aoSL FootNote_inactive__VZfCp" aria-describedby="63c1fa8f-2fe1-43d0-ac37-24729d5b72af"><sup class="FootNote_footnotesup__e73z_">2</sup><span class="FootNote_notch-wrapper__b_5NS"><span class="FootNote_notch__omKtY"></span></span><span class="FootNote_tooltip__QtrbA mdc-u-mt-2"><span class="FootNote_footnote-content__r2OVl"><span id="63c1fa8f-2fe1-43d0-ac37-24729d5b72af" aria-hidden="true" data-module-theme="light" class="FootNote_footnote-text__VjKgO mck-u-links-inline">“Infrastructure and Jobs Act: Clean hydrogen initiatives,” International Energy Agency, May 16, 2023.</span></span></span></a></span> The latter offers a production tax credit of up to $3 per kilogram of hydrogen produced.<span class="FootNote_footnote-holder__tjRqy"><a aria-label="footnote" href="javascript:void(0);" class="FootNote_footnote-wrapper__AIRwL undefined FootNote_bottom__9aoSL FootNote_inactive__VZfCp" aria-describedby="6d7d7c4f-d397-48d8-b27c-1c23ee8a2a30"><sup class="FootNote_footnotesup__e73z_">3</sup><span class="FootNote_notch-wrapper__b_5NS"><span class="FootNote_notch__omKtY"></span></span><span class="FootNote_tooltip__QtrbA mdc-u-mt-2"><span class="FootNote_footnote-content__r2OVl"><span id="6d7d7c4f-d397-48d8-b27c-1c23ee8a2a30" aria-hidden="true" data-module-theme="light" class="FootNote_footnote-text__VjKgO mck-u-links-inline">Yuanrong Zhou, “Can the Inflation Reduction Act unlock a green hydrogen economy?,” International Council on Clean Transportation, January 3, 2023.</span></span></span></a></span></p> <h2>Hyperscaling green capital expenditures: Reducing costs while increasing efficiency</h2> <p>Delivering capital investments has always been difficult. The vast majority of projects do not meet their authorized schedules, and cost overruns can drastically exceed initial estimates. To successfully scale delivery of green capital expenditures, construction players need first to fully control cost and time budgets and then to embark on cost ramp-down curves, similar to those seen in batteries, solar, and wind (exhibit).</p> <div data-component="mdc-c-module-wrapper" data-module-theme="default" data-module-background="transparent" data-module-category="" class="mck-c-inline-module-container mck-o-md-center"><div class="mck-c-content-header"><div class="ContentHeader_mck-c-content-header__eyebrow__cBTe_"></div></div><div class="mck-u-inline-module-border-bottom"><picture data-component="mdc-c-picture" class="Exhibit_mck-c-exhibit__image__pyIDm"><source media="(min-width: 768px)" srcSet="/~/media/mckinsey/business%20functions/operations/our%20insights/gii/voices/the%20plant%20as%20a%20product%20hyperscaling%20green%20capex/svgz-plant-as-product-ex1-v4.svgz?cq=50&cpy=Center"/><img alt="A significant reduction in capital expenditures has been seen in batteries, solar, and wind power and is expected in hydrogen." src="/~/media/mckinsey/business%20functions/operations/our%20insights/gii/voices/the%20plant%20as%20a%20product%20hyperscaling%20green%20capex/svgz-plant-as-product-ex1-v4.svgz?cq=50&cpy=Center" loading="lazy"/></picture></div><div class="mck-u-sr-only"></div></div> <p>Most companies will need to embark on aggressive expansions that involve building multiple plants in parallel. As an example, battery producers will likely need to build four plants in parallel, all in different stages of construction, to keep pace with the required scale-up. By contrast, scaling hydrogen plants could theoretically require building as many as eight to ten in parallel, considering the ambitious plans of most hydrogen players.</p> <p>That’s a very tall order. But it may be possible if companies deploy a plant-as-a-product capital expenditure delivery system, which would let them design and implement future ways of working across all capital expenditure projects globally—potentially yielding both short-term productivity gains and continuous improvement in the midterm. This system is built around three complementary building blocks: technical, management, and people systems.</p> <h3>Technical system</h3> <p>The first building block refers to fit-for-purpose technical tools and systems to help optimize fact-based decision making. Such systems can help owners optimize plant design by simulating the construction phase, as well as ramp-up and operations, through digital twins.<span class="FootNote_footnote-holder__tjRqy"><a aria-label="footnote" href="javascript:void(0);" class="FootNote_footnote-wrapper__AIRwL undefined FootNote_bottom__9aoSL FootNote_inactive__VZfCp" aria-describedby="dd330ec7-c7bd-4af8-929e-005d2cf07c0f"><sup class="FootNote_footnotesup__e73z_">4</sup><span class="FootNote_notch-wrapper__b_5NS"><span class="FootNote_notch__omKtY"></span></span><span class="FootNote_tooltip__QtrbA mdc-u-mt-2"><span class="FootNote_footnote-content__r2OVl"><span id="dd330ec7-c7bd-4af8-929e-005d2cf07c0f" aria-hidden="true" data-module-theme="light" class="FootNote_footnote-text__VjKgO mck-u-links-inline">For more on digital twins, see “<a href="/featured-insights/mckinsey-explainers/what-is-digital-twin-technology">What is digital-twin technology?</a>,” McKinsey, July 12, 2023.</span></span></span></a></span> For example, various scenarios and design choices that influence building and equipment capital expenditures can be simulated, such as the required capacity of individual pieces of equipment, layout of production lines, and infrastructure. To reach optimal cost levels quickly during the design stage, owners can test maintenance costs and other operating expenditures—including any impact on final cost, yield, and returns on investment—before construction begins. Furthermore, <a href="/capabilities/operations/our-insights/making-cost-engineering-count">tool kits can be expanded with updated market pricing and resource availability</a> to help owners make informed trade-offs in their design up to the point of start of construction.</p> <p>Another example includes <a href="/capabilities/operations/our-insights/increasing-transparency-in-megaproject-execution">integrating the design, procurement, and planning processes via digital platforms</a>. This can help ensure seamless operations among the relevant parties by preventing the procurement of materials based on outdated designs and the arrival of subcontractors at sites based on older work schedules.</p> <p>With such tools in place, one European-based battery producer was able to reduce expected capital expenditure costs significantly by implementing an aggressive minimum-technical-solution approach during concept design, which challenged the required scope and technical requirements. For example, equipment footprint was reduced by eliminating nonfunctional spaces, compressing open spaces, and optimizing equipment paths. Overall, capital expenditure cost estimates were lowered by 50 percent by reducing unnecessary space in production areas, optimizing storage areas, and combining heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) equipment, among many other initiatives.</p> <h3>Management system</h3> <p>Having the right setup and performance management is the second building block. A critical component of this is a performance management office at both internal (the owner organization) and external (suppliers and engineering, procurement, and construction [EPC] companies) levels. Here, steering meetings can be supported by live performance-management dashboards with KPIs across all stages of the project life cycle, allowing owners to rapidly identify obstacles—such as low construction productivity; slow delivery, checking, and updating of design deliverables; interface clashes between contractors; and a lack of available materials on-site—and intervene for course correction or decision making.</p> <p>“SWAT” teams can also help debottleneck and drive performance.<span class="FootNote_footnote-holder__tjRqy"><a aria-label="footnote" href="javascript:void(0);" class="FootNote_footnote-wrapper__AIRwL undefined FootNote_bottom__9aoSL FootNote_inactive__VZfCp" aria-describedby="36be7d11-c6f3-4d36-965d-e1f3f65e6fd0"><sup class="FootNote_footnotesup__e73z_">5</sup><span class="FootNote_notch-wrapper__b_5NS"><span class="FootNote_notch__omKtY"></span></span><span class="FootNote_tooltip__QtrbA mdc-u-mt-2"><span class="FootNote_footnote-content__r2OVl"><span id="36be7d11-c6f3-4d36-965d-e1f3f65e6fd0" aria-hidden="true" data-module-theme="light" class="FootNote_footnote-text__VjKgO mck-u-links-inline">For more on digital SWAT teams, see “<a href="/capabilities/mckinsey-digital/our-insights/clearing-data-quality-roadblocks-unlocking-ai-in-manufacturing">Clearing data-quality roadblocks: Unlocking AI in manufacturing</a>,” McKinsey, January 20, 2023.</span></span></span></a></span> For example, a solar player implemented SWAT teams and lean performance management and also parallelized labor onboarding and ramp-up, which accelerated the schedule by 30 percent and improved productivity by 40 percent. In this case, crew-level task assignments, performance targets, and daily performance dialogues helped to rapidly improve issue escalation and resolution, and to accelerate issue-resolution cycles.</p> <h3>People system</h3> <p>The final building block refers to the required capacities and capabilities. Often, implementing a successful people system entails a culture shift: companies will need to embrace innovative change and break down silos to help create the mindset for implementing minimum technical solutions. This will likely require creating innovative roles at the central and project levels (such as a blueprinting team) and building internal EPC capabilities (such as capital expenditure controllers).</p> <p>With these points in mind, a global battery cell manufacturer mobilized its best organizational capabilities by installing full-time project teams and, in turn, identified improvement potential of more than 70 percent for the business case for a pilot gigafactory. In response, core team roles were identified and defined across sites, and daily communication was implemented globally to increase the speed of decision making across capabilities and organizational functions. As a result, a team blueprint was formed to roll out the pilot approach across sites.</p> <hr/> <p>The challenges for green tech projects in the years to come are formidable. In addition, owners and operators must contend with various external pressures related to changing regulations and increasingly stringent climate targets. One thing that’s certain, however, is that industry players need to make bold decisions today to approach things differently. Taking its cues from cost reductions in batteries, solar, and wind, the plant as a product is a promising solution.</p> <p><em>This article is part of a series covering capital deployment for a greener world. It follows “<a href="/industries/infrastructure/our-insights/capital-projects-are-critical-for-a-green-future">Capital projects are critical for a green future</a>,” which was published on August 15, 2023.</em></p></div><div class="container-placeholder"></div></div></div><div class="mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-gutter-xl"><section role="contentinfo" data-layer-region="article-about-authors" class="mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-col-md-12 AboutAuthor_mck-c-about-author__nRJzu"><div class="mdc-u-grid-col-md-start-2 mdc-u-grid-col-md-end-12 mdc-u-grid-col-lg-start-3 mdc-u-grid-col-lg-end-11"><h5 data-component="mdc-c-heading" class="mdc-c-heading___0fM1W_8032924 mdc-c-heading--title___5qyOB_8032924 mdc-c-heading--border___K8dj3_8032924 mdc-u-align-center"></h5><div data-component="mdc-c-description" class="mdc-c-description___SrnQP_8032924 mdc-u-ts-8 mck-u-links-inline mck-u-links-inline--secondary mdc-u-mt-5"><div><p><strong>Mark Bakker</strong> is a partner in McKinsey’s Amsterdam office, and <strong><a href="/our-people/zak-cutler">Zak Cutler</a></strong> is a senior partner in the Toronto office.</p></div></div></div></section><section class="mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-col-md-12 mck-u-screen-only"><div class="mdc-u-grid-col-md-start-2 mdc-u-grid-col-md-end-12 mdc-u-grid-col-lg-start-5 mdc-u-grid-col-lg-end-9"><h5 data-component="mdc-c-heading" class="mdc-c-heading___0fM1W_8032924 mdc-c-heading--title___5qyOB_8032924 mdc-c-heading--border___K8dj3_8032924 mdc-u-align-center">Explore a career with us</h5><div data-component="mdc-c-link-container" class="mdc-c-link-container___xefGu_8032924 mdc-c-link-container--align-center___ar3mu_8032924"><a data-component="mdc-c-link" href="/careers/search-jobs" class="mdc-c-button___U4iY2_8032924 mdc-c-button--secondary___Boipq_8032924 mdc-c-button--size-large___jwpUy_8032924" aria-label="Search Openings" data-layer-event-prefix="CTA Link" data-layer-action="click" data-layer-category="careers" data-layer-subcategory="search" data-layer-text="Search Openings"><span class="mdc-c-link__label___Pfqtd_8032924">Search Openings</span></a></div></div></section></div></main></div><div data-component="mdc-c-module-wrapper" data-module-theme="light" data-module-background="lightest-grey" data-module-category="StandalonePromo" class="RelatedArticle_mck-c-article-related__GGA76 mck-u-screen-only" data-layer-region="related-articles"><div class="mdc-o-container__wrapper is-wrapped mdc-u-spaced-mobile"><h5 data-component="mdc-c-heading" class="mdc-c-heading___0fM1W_8032924 mdc-c-heading--title___5qyOB_8032924 mdc-u-align-center">Related Articles</h5><div class="mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-col-md-1 RelatedArticle_items-container__s2uD0"><div class="mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-gutter-lg Card_card__diA2r Card_hover-effect__RGb9b mdc-u-grid-col-md-12"><div class="Card_wrapper-image__8b4P6 mdc-u-grid-col-md-span-6"><a data-component="mdc-c-link" href="/industries/infrastructure/our-insights/capital-projects-are-critical-for-a-green-future" class="mdc-c-link___lBbY1_8032924"><picture data-component="mdc-c-picture" class="Card_wrapper-image__8b4P6"><style>.picture-uniqueKey-capit-0 { aspect-ratio: 16/9 }</style><img alt="Digital generated image of multiple environment cross section with different types of energy supply standing on white background. Sustainable energy concept. - stock photo" class="picture-uniqueKey-capit-0" src="/~/media/mckinsey/business%20functions/operations/our%20insights/gii/voices/capital%20projects%20are%20critical%20for%20a%20green%20future/thumb-gettyimages-1401906814.jpg?cq=50&mw=767&car=16:9&cpy=Center" loading="lazy"/></picture></a></div><div class="Card_wrapper-text__U6Y3k mdc-u-grid-col-md-span-6"><div data-component="mdc-c-content-block" class="mdc-c-content-block___7p6Lu_8032924 Card_content-block__pF6Z1"><span>Article</span><h6 data-component="mdc-c-heading" class="mdc-c-heading___0fM1W_8032924 mdc-u-ts-3"><a data-component="mdc-c-link" href="/industries/infrastructure/our-insights/capital-projects-are-critical-for-a-green-future" class="mdc-c-link-heading___Zggl8_8032924 mdc-c-link___lBbY1_8032924"><div>Capital projects are critical for a green future</div></a></h6></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></main></div><script id="__NEXT_DATA__" type="application/json">{"props":{"pageProps":{"locale":"en","dictionary":{},"sitecoreContext":{"route":{"name":"The plant as a product Hyperscaling green capex","displayName":"The plant as a product Hyperscaling green capex","fields":null,"databaseName":"web","deviceId":"fe5d7fdf-89c0-4d99-9aa3-b5fbd009c9f3","itemId":"9128db0a-3323-4f67-903a-3a7779a55966","itemLanguage":"en","itemVersion":1,"layoutId":"ae753eb4-a035-40b4-83bf-4b4438df6742","templateId":"683910db-02ba-40ba-92e7-726c880160a9","templateName":"ArticleJSS","placeholders":{"jss-main":[{"uid":"232bb7e9-289f-492d-a916-2b6185e44a84","componentName":"ArticleTemplate","dataSource":"","fields":{"data":{"articleTemplate":{"title":{"jsonValue":{"value":"The plant as a product: Hyperscaling green capex"}},"sEOTitle":{"value":"Hyperscale green capital project"},"description":{"jsonValue":{"value":"Most capital projects overrun schedules and exceed budgets. A new delivery system for capital expenditures can help reduce costs and increase efficiency for green tech projects."}},"sEODescription":{"value":""},"displayDate":{"jsonValue":{"value":"2023-09-07T00:00:00Z"}},"body":{"value":"[[audio 1]]\n[[DownloadsSidebar]]\n[[MostPopularArticles 5]]\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eAs industry players race\u003c/strong\u003e to meet increasingly ambitious net-zero emissions targets, it\u0026rsquo;s clear that capital expenditure costs need to be reduced while project timelines are accelerated. This is particularly true for the construction of gigafactories, which are critical to hyperscale the green technologies needed to meet climate targets by 2050, including renewable energy sources, hydrogen, batteries, and carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS).\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eOur estimates show that achieving carbon reduction targets will require the equivalent of 7.5 percent of global GDP in green capital expenditures by 2030. In turn, this capital expenditure will play a critical role in setting future costs of products, ultimately determining 10 to 15 percent of the cost of batteries and an even higher percentage of the cost of green hydrogen and ammonia.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eGiven that players in new green tech sectors typically have no blueprint for factory and production process design, industry leaders can borrow recent insights from battery manufacturing to drive down costs. On this point, a fundamentally new delivery system for capital expenditures, known as the plant-as-a-product approach, can help players industrialize the end-to-end process of designing and delivering gigafactory projects.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eBy reducing both costs at the plant level and lead times for green capital expenditures, the plant-as-a-product approach can lower capital expenditure costs by 10 to 20 percent for the first plant, with ultimate capital expenditure reductions reaching as much as 75 percent.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003ch2\u003eGlobal investment in green technologies: An overview\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eMeeting the world\u0026rsquo;s decarbonization goals is a significant challenge in terms of both increasing capital expenditures and overcoming technological limitations. That said, the main types of investments being made today are related to hydrogen (green steel, hydrogen plants, and green ammonia), battery gigafactories, renewables, and carbon capture technologies, all of which are necessary to help reach decarbonization goals by 2050. In Europe alone, 30 battery gigafactories will be built over the next seven years to help meet rapidly increasing demand for electric-vehicle batteries.\u003c/p\u003e\n[[disruptor1up learnmore]]\n\u003cp\u003eIn addition, companies around the world are planning to build hundreds of installations for hydrogen, many of which will be highly accelerated because of recent stimulus programs, such as the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act and the Inflation Reduction Act in the United States.[[footnote 1]] As part of the former, the US Department of Energy has allocated $9.5 billion to fund clean-hydrogen hubs, electrolysis programs, and manufacturing and recycling programs.[[footnote 2]] The latter offers a production tax credit of up to $3 per kilogram of hydrogen produced.[[footnote 3]]\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003ch2\u003eHyperscaling green capital expenditures: Reducing costs while increasing efficiency\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eDelivering capital investments has always been difficult. The vast majority of projects do not meet their authorized schedules, and cost overruns can drastically exceed initial estimates. To successfully scale delivery of green capital expenditures, construction players need first to fully control cost and time budgets and then to embark on cost ramp-down curves, similar to those seen in batteries, solar, and wind (exhibit).\u003c/p\u003e\n[[exhibit 1]]\n\u003cp\u003eMost companies will need to embark on aggressive expansions that involve building multiple plants in parallel. As an example, battery producers will likely need to build four plants in parallel, all in different stages of construction, to keep pace with the required scale-up. By contrast, scaling hydrogen plants could theoretically require building as many as eight to ten in parallel, considering the ambitious plans of most hydrogen players.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThat\u0026rsquo;s a very tall order. But it may be possible if companies deploy a plant-as-a-product capital expenditure delivery system, which would let them design and implement future ways of working across all capital expenditure projects globally\u0026mdash;potentially yielding both short-term productivity gains and continuous improvement in the midterm. This system is built around three complementary building blocks: technical, management, and people systems.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003ch3\u003eTechnical system\u003c/h3\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe first building block refers to fit-for-purpose technical tools and systems to help optimize fact-based decision making. Such systems can help owners optimize plant design by simulating the construction phase, as well as ramp-up and operations, through digital twins.[[footnote 4]] For example, various scenarios and design choices that influence building and equipment capital expenditures can be simulated, such as the required capacity of individual pieces of equipment, layout of production lines, and infrastructure. To reach optimal cost levels quickly during the design stage, owners can test maintenance costs and other operating expenditures\u0026mdash;including any impact on final cost, yield, and returns on investment\u0026mdash;before construction begins. Furthermore, \u003ca href=\"/capabilities/operations/our-insights/making-cost-engineering-count\"\u003etool kits can be expanded with updated market pricing and resource availability\u003c/a\u003e to help owners make informed trade-offs in their design up to the point of start of construction.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAnother example includes \u003ca href=\"/capabilities/operations/our-insights/increasing-transparency-in-megaproject-execution\"\u003eintegrating the design, procurement, and planning processes via digital platforms\u003c/a\u003e. This can help ensure seamless operations among the relevant parties by preventing the procurement of materials based on outdated designs and the arrival of subcontractors at sites based on older work schedules.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eWith such tools in place, one European-based battery producer was able to reduce expected capital expenditure costs significantly by implementing an aggressive minimum-technical-solution approach during concept design, which challenged the required scope and technical requirements. For example, equipment footprint was reduced by eliminating nonfunctional spaces, compressing open spaces, and optimizing equipment paths. Overall, capital expenditure cost estimates were lowered by 50 percent by reducing unnecessary space in production areas, optimizing storage areas, and combining heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) equipment, among many other initiatives.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003ch3\u003eManagement system\u003c/h3\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eHaving the right setup and performance management is the second building block. A critical component of this is a performance management office at both internal (the owner organization) and external (suppliers and engineering, procurement, and construction [EPC] companies) levels. Here, steering meetings can be supported by live performance-management dashboards with KPIs across all stages of the project life cycle, allowing owners to rapidly identify obstacles\u0026mdash;such as low construction productivity; slow delivery, checking, and updating of design deliverables; interface clashes between contractors; and a lack of available materials on-site\u0026mdash;and intervene for course correction or decision making.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u0026ldquo;SWAT\u0026rdquo; teams can also help debottleneck and drive performance.[[footnote 5]] For example, a solar player implemented SWAT teams and lean performance management and also parallelized labor onboarding and ramp-up, which accelerated the schedule by 30 percent and improved productivity by 40 percent. In this case, crew-level task assignments, performance targets, and daily performance dialogues helped to rapidly improve issue escalation and resolution, and to accelerate issue-resolution cycles.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003ch3\u003ePeople system\u003c/h3\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe final building block refers to the required capacities and capabilities. Often, implementing a successful people system entails a culture shift: companies will need to embrace innovative change and break down silos to help create the mindset for implementing minimum technical solutions. This will likely require creating innovative roles at the central and project levels (such as a blueprinting team) and building internal EPC capabilities (such as capital expenditure controllers).\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eWith these points in mind, a global battery cell manufacturer mobilized its best organizational capabilities by installing full-time project teams and, in turn, identified improvement potential of more than 70 percent for the business case for a pilot gigafactory. In response, core team roles were identified and defined across sites, and daily communication was implemented globally to increase the speed of decision making across capabilities and organizational functions. As a result, a team blueprint was formed to roll out the pilot approach across sites.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003chr /\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe challenges for green tech projects in the years to come are formidable. In addition, owners and operators must contend with various external pressures related to changing regulations and increasingly stringent climate targets. One thing that\u0026rsquo;s certain, however, is that industry players need to make bold decisions today to approach things differently. Taking its cues from cost reductions in batteries, solar, and wind, the plant as a product is a promising solution.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cem\u003eThis article is part of a series covering capital deployment for a greener world. It follows \u0026ldquo;\u003ca href=\"/industries/infrastructure/our-insights/capital-projects-are-critical-for-a-green-future\"\u003eCapital projects are critical for a green future\u003c/a\u003e,\u0026rdquo; which was published on August 15, 2023.\u003c/em\u003e\u003c/p\u003e"},"isFullScreenInteractive":{"boolValue":false},"hideStickySocialShareBar":{"boolValue":false},"desktopID":{"value":""},"mobileID":{"value":""},"desktopURL":{"value":""},"mobileURL":{"value":""},"desktopPaddingPercentage":{"value":""},"mobilePaddingPercentage":{"value":""},"desktopOverrideHeight":{"value":""},"mobileOverrideHeight":{"value":""},"cerosOembedURL":{"value":""},"cerosRenderMode":{"targetItem":null},"cerosBackgroundColor":{"targetItem":null},"hideByLine":{"boolValue":false},"tableOfContentsTitle":{"value":"TABLE OF CONTENTS"},"accessStatus":{"targetItem":{"key":{"value":"RegisteredUsers"},"value":{"value":"Registered Users"}}},"articleType":{"targetItem":{"displayName":"Article"}},"hasSpecialReport":{"boolValue":false},"contentType":{"targetItem":{"displayName":"Article"}},"sourcePublication":{"targetItem":null},"externalPublication":{"value":""},"excludeFromClientLink":{"boolValue":false},"originalPublishDate":{"jsonValue":{"value":"2023-09-07T18:43:00Z"}},"footnotes":{"value":"\u003col\u003e\n \u003cli\u003eFor more, see Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act of 2022, Pub. L. No. 117-58; and Inflation Reduction Act of 2022, Pub. L. No. 117-169.\u003c/li\u003e\n \u003cli\u003e\u0026ldquo;Infrastructure and Jobs Act: Clean hydrogen initiatives,\u0026rdquo; International Energy Agency, May 16, 2023.\u003c/li\u003e\n \u003cli\u003eYuanrong Zhou, \u0026ldquo;Can the Inflation Reduction Act unlock a green hydrogen economy?,\u0026rdquo; International Council on Clean Transportation, January 3, 2023.\u003c/li\u003e\n \u003cli\u003eFor more on digital twins, see \u0026ldquo;\u003ca href=\"/featured-insights/mckinsey-explainers/what-is-digital-twin-technology\"\u003eWhat is digital-twin technology?\u003c/a\u003e,\u0026rdquo; McKinsey, July 12, 2023.\u003c/li\u003e\n \u003cli\u003eFor more on digital SWAT teams, see \u0026ldquo;\u003ca href=\"/capabilities/mckinsey-digital/our-insights/clearing-data-quality-roadblocks-unlocking-ai-in-manufacturing\"\u003eClearing data-quality roadblocks: Unlocking AI in manufacturing\u003c/a\u003e,\u0026rdquo; McKinsey, January 20, 2023.\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003c/ol\u003e"},"contributoryPractice":{"targetItems":[{"displayName":"Operations"}]},"aboutTheAuthors":{"value":"\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eMark Bakker\u003c/strong\u003e is a partner in McKinsey\u0026rsquo;s Amsterdam office, and \u003cstrong\u003e\u003ca href=\"/our-people/zak-cutler\"\u003eZak Cutler\u003c/a\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e is a senior partner in the Toronto office.\u003c/p\u003e"},"authors":{"targetItems":[{"template":{"id":"3FBABDB63A094F68B1F8E1BBE1BA124E","name":"Author"},"id":"11251F48239C40F7A22A7694120F37F4","name":"Mark Bakker","authorTitle":{"value":"Mark Bakker"},"description":{"value":""},"thumbnailImage":{"alt":"","src":null},"profile":{"targetItems":[]}},{"template":{"id":"3FBABDB63A094F68B1F8E1BBE1BA124E","name":"Author"},"id":"0C15B67419EA4374AFFB569D69B29AD3","name":"Zak Cutler","authorTitle":{"value":"Zak Cutler"},"description":{"value":""},"thumbnailImage":{"alt":"","src":null},"profile":{"targetItems":[{"standardImage":{"src":"/~/media/mckinsey/our people/zak cutler/zak cutler_std_img.jpg","alt":"Zak Cutler"},"emailLinks":{"value":"Zak_Cutler@mckinsey.com, Natali_Naegle_Ruban@mckinsey.com"},"linkedInUrl":{"value":""},"description":{"value":"Serves electric and gas utilities, energy companies, and infrastructure owners and investors on issues related to capital investment and strategy"},"locations":{"targetItems":[{"name":"Toronto","displayName":"Toronto"}]},"firmTitle":{"value":"Senior Partner"},"thumbnailImage":{"alt":"Zak Cutler","src":"/~/media/mckinsey/our people/zak cutler/zak cutler_thumbnail_img.jpg"},"url":{"path":"/our-people/zak-cutler"}}]}}]},"nonPartnerAuthors":{"targetItems":[]},"interactiveToUse":{"targetItem":null},"enableArticleComponents":{"boolValue":false},"relatedArticles":{"targetItems":[{"sourcePublication":{"targetItem":null},"publicationSource":null,"externalPublication":{"value":""},"title":{"value":"Capital projects are critical for a green future"},"url":{"path":"/industries/infrastructure/our-insights/capital-projects-are-critical-for-a-green-future"},"eyebrow":{"targetItem":{"name":"Article"}},"articleType":{"targetItem":{"name":"Article"}},"contentType":{"targetItem":{"name":"Article"}},"description":{"value":"Constructing new decarbonization assets can help achieve net-zero targets\u0026mdash;but doing so requires fundamentally rethinking project costs to accelerate development."},"standardImage":{"src":"/~/media/mckinsey/business functions/operations/our insights/gii/voices/capital projects are critical for a green future/thumb-gettyimages-1401906814.jpg","alt":"Digital generated image of multiple environment cross section with different types of energy supply standing on white background. 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