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Mysteel参考丨西北地区建筑钢材市场现状分析-我的钢铁网

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、2024年市场回顾</strong></p> <p><strong>1.价格单边下跌 低于全国水平</strong></p> <p>回顾2024年,西北建筑钢材价格与全国市场走势一致,基本呈现单边下行态势。西北地区除了个别区域建筑钢材价格较高,其他区域如宁夏、新疆、甘肃以及青海全年处于较低较差水平,尤其是7-9月份。截至12月3日,西北地区主流钢厂20mm 螺纹钢均价3322元/吨,与全国均价相比,低于133元/吨。分区域来看,目前宁夏银川是全国价格垫底,低于全国均价232元/吨,陕西西安价格最高,低于全国均价29元/吨。虽然西北地区价格在9月中下旬以及10月上旬价格大幅上涨,价格一度突破3800元/吨,但是价格上涨幅度明显弱于全国其他地区,且上涨时间较短,被动上涨特征明显。</p> <p>图1:西北地区螺纹与全国均价对比(单位:元/吨)</p> <p><img style="width: 600px; height: 362.986px;" src="https://img02.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/news/2024/12/27/0959561.png" width="600" height="363" /></p> <p style="text-align: right;">数据来源:钢联数据</p> <p>图2 :西北地区五省省会城市建筑钢材价格走势(单位:元/吨)</p> <p><img style="width: 600px; height: 354.766px;" src="https://img06.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/news/2024/12/27/0959562.png" width="600" height="355" /></p> <p style="text-align: right;">数据来源:钢联数据</p> <p><strong>2.市场库存低位 钢厂主要以直发为主</strong></p> <p>2024年以来,西北地区建筑钢材价格持续呈现震荡下挫态势,经营商家大部分都是亏损状态,尤其是经历了2023年冬储,部分商家亏损达到约200元/吨。这也致使在随后几个月后西北地区内商家谨慎囤货,维持较低库存。</p> <p>图3:西北地区社会库存走势(单位:万吨)</p> <p><img style="width: 600px; height: 375px;" src="https://img06.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/news/2024/12/27/0959563.png" width="600" height="375" /></p> <p style="text-align: right;">数据来源:钢联数据</p> <p>据<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>我的钢铁网</a>统计,2024年西北地区建筑钢材社会库存均值约在110万吨,相比去年下降8万吨,降幅约在6.7%;与2022年相比,建筑钢材社会库存均值下降15万吨,降幅约为12%。截止12月5日,又处于冬储期间,西北地区建筑钢材社会库存仅在76.93万吨,远远低于前几年库存增幅。另外,由于交易习惯改变以及成本考虑,西北地区建筑钢材生产企业布库成本大幅增加,钢厂直发比例逐年攀升。</p> <p>当前受季节性淡季影响,西北地区大部分市场处于停滞状态,钢材社会库存增幅明显。由图3可以看出,2023年与2024年西北库存在3月份达到年内最大值,随着后期市场需求回暖,库存将有明显降幅。因此在2025年前三月,西北市场库存将会进一步增加,市场蓄水池作用逐步修复。</p> <p><strong>二 供应方面</strong></p> <p><strong>1.产能结构单一</strong> <strong>同质化竞争矛盾突出</strong></p> <p>图4:1-9月西北地区五省粗钢产量情况(单位:万吨)</p> <p><img style="width: 600px; height: 364.451px;" src="https://img08.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/news/2024/12/27/0959564.png" width="600" height="364" /></p> <p style="text-align: right;">数据来源:钢联数据</p> <p>据我的钢铁网统计,1-9月份西北五省粗钢产量约在3354.97万吨,同比下降109.12万吨,降幅3.1%。其中,只有青海粗钢产量增长94.3%,其他区域均是小幅下降1.5-9.6%。一方面,青海钢厂2023年因为亏损停产检修较多,而今年钢企重新重组之后,生产恢复正常而粗钢产量上升。其他区域则是由于钢企亏损较多而主动降低产量。</p> <p>图5:西北地区五省钢铁炼钢产能占比</p> <p><img style="width: 600px; height: 391.765px;" src="https://img07.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/news/2024/12/27/0959565.png" width="600" height="392" /></p> <p style="text-align: right;">数据来源:钢联数据</p> <p>截止今年3月份统计,西北地区五省17家钢铁生产企业20个生产基地炼铁总产能4767万吨,炼钢总产能5819万吨,轧材总产能6510万吨。据不完全统计,2024年钢材总产量2220万吨,产能利用率不足55%,部分地区表现更为明显。以宁夏为例,3家钢材企业建筑钢材产能约在600万吨,但是年需求量却仅仅在130万吨,余下的470万吨资源主要投放在陕西、甘肃、青海、内蒙古等市场,这无疑给本已需求疲软的西北其他市场带来一定的压力,供需矛盾突出。</p> <p>图6: 西北地区五省各品种钢材产能占比</p> <p><img style="width: 600px; height: 425.366px;" src="https://img07.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/news/2024/12/27/0959566.png" width="600" height="425" /></p> <p style="text-align: right;">数据来源:钢联数据</p> <p>据我网统计,截止今年3月份,西北地区五省17家钢铁生产企业20个生产基地轧材总产能6510万吨,建筑钢材产能4615万吨、板带(含<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-968-----010103-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>热轧</a>板卷、<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-968-----010102-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>中厚板</a>、<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-968-----010104-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>冷轧</a>、<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-968-----010108-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>带钢</a>、<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-968-----010105-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>涂镀</a>)产能1225万吨、优钢205万吨、<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-968-----010107-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>型钢</a>50万吨、其他335万吨;从占比情况来看,建筑钢材占71%(2022年为74%)、热轧板卷9%、中厚板4%、冷轧板卷4%、带钢2%、<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-967-----0102-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>特钢</a>3%、型材2%和其他5%。相对来说,西北地区钢厂生产品种较为单一,主要为建筑钢材,同质化竞争较为激烈。这也是地区内建筑钢材价格水平一直较低原因。</p> <p><strong>三、需求方面</strong></p> <p>图7: 西北地区房地产投资额(单位:亿元)</p> <p><img style="width: 600px; height: 337.109px;" src="https://img01.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/news/2024/12/27/0959567.png" width="600" height="337" /></p> <p style="text-align: right;">数据来源:钢联数据</p> <p>图8 :西北地区房屋新开工面积(单位:万平方米)</p> <p><img style="width: 600px; height: 350.769px;" src="https://img08.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/news/2024/12/27/0959568.png" width="600" height="351" /></p> <p style="text-align: right;">数据来源:钢联数据</p> <p>2024年以来,随着房地产行业下行,建筑钢材需求量也持续萎缩。1-9月份西北房地产投资额累计3703.04亿元,同比下降9.25%;房屋新开工总面积15416.7万平方米,同比减少1543.15万平方米,降幅21.17%;房屋施工面积57364.93万平方米,同比减少5355.31万平方米,降幅8.5%。据从我的钢铁网调研反馈,资金紧张仍是地产问题的主要原因。今年地产政策陆续松绑,但市场回暖信号仍不明显,地产的深度调整导致钢铁消费明显下挫,其中<a href="https://jiancai.mysteel.com/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">建筑钢材</a>消费萎缩更为明显。不难看出,房地产行业对于建筑钢材需求支撑力度越来越弱。</p> <p>从建筑钢材另一大需求基建来看,2013年开始“一带一路”政策颁布后,西北区域基础建设投资大力发展,不论铁路、交通还是水利、环境公共设施都得到全面建设。而近年来随着经济下行,人口减少以及资金短缺,西北区域基础建设投资明显放缓,遇到瓶颈。而且</p> <p>2023年12月23日,我国发布了《重点省份分类加强投资项目管理办法(试行)》,文件要求12个重点省份,要严控新建投资项目,包括交通、市政、产业园区、各类楼堂馆所和棚户区改造。其中12个省份,西北占了3个省份。据测算,12个重要省市基建投资占全国比重25%左右,加之2024年上半年地方专项债发行偏慢,同比下降14.4%,对建筑钢材需求有一定拖累。</p> <p>如今,西北地区已经进入冬季,除了陕西还能施工建设,其他区域已经基本上项目停止施工,建筑钢材市场需求一落千丈。未来可以看出,尽管国家近期出台了许多房地产利好政策以及发行专项地方债,但是从西北地区来看,政策落地仍需要一段时间。</p> <p><strong>四、未来需求分析</strong></p> <p>在中国工业发展降速,绿色低碳转型背景下,钢铁行业步入减量发展阶段。钢铁是工业发展的“<a href='https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/liangshi/' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>粮食</a>”,随着我国工业发展降速,钢材消费增长动力不足。同时,在“3060”双碳目标下,我国钢铁行业作为碳排放大户,已提出压减粗钢产量、推进绿色低碳转型等相关规划,行业步入减量发展新阶段。<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>Mysteel</a>下游消费预测模型显示,到2030年我国钢材消费将下滑至8.5亿吨,年均复合降速约1.6%。其中,建筑业合计减量约1.6亿吨。</p> <p>随着房地产、基建等建筑行业由于人口红利消退、购房需求减少及大规模基建不再有等因素,未来用钢需求将下滑,新的需求主要在以下几个方面:</p> <p>1)装配式建筑自身性能优势叠加政策驱动,将带动钢结构行业大力发展。</p> <p>2)中国汽车行业发展进入成熟期,但由于千人保有量较低等因素,未来汽车产量仍存在增长空间,对应汽车用钢量仍将有小幅增加。</p> <p>3)国家政策层面积极鼓励油气开采,油气管道布局任务艰巨,电力行业中风、光发电空间巨大,未来能化行业用钢量仍将有所增加。</p> <p><strong>五、总结</strong></p> <p>不论是从房地产行业还是基建行业,未来建筑钢材需求均是处于小幅下降趋势。而当前西北地区建筑钢材产能结构单一,供需矛盾依然存在,在冬季需求下降时尤为突出。虽然现在区域内部分钢厂也纷纷谋求转变,开始新上热轧、冷轧以及带钢等其他品种产线,来化解建筑钢材产能单一问题,但是调整生产结构生产企业数量较少,目前整体供需矛盾依然严峻。因此,西北地区钢企需要严格自律,控制生产节奏,将产量控制在产能之内,维持较合理库存。另外,不管是装配式建筑的发展还是西北地区新能源基地的建设,西北地区钢材消费结构未来将会发生较大变化,利空建筑钢材,利多板、管、型材等品种的发展。对于西北生产企业来说是一个重新调整产品结构、增加产品品种以及提高产品质量的契机,也有利于提高区内钢铁企业利润和竞争力。</p> <!--指标说明附件--> <br /> </div> </div> </article> <article class="content-block m-copyRight"> 资讯编辑:陈群 021-26096771 </br> 资讯监督:乐卫扬 021-26093827 </br> 资讯投诉:陈跃进 021-26093100 </br> </article> <article class="content-block m-copyRight h-statement"> <p class="h-statement-text">免责声明:Mysteel发布的原创及转载内容,仅供客户参考,不作为决策建议。原创内容版权归Mysteel所有,转载需取得Mysteel书面授权,且Mysteel保留对任何侵权行为和有悖原创内容原意的引用行为进行追究的权利。转载内容来源于网络,目的在于传递更多信息,方便学习与交流,并不代表Mysteel赞同其观点及对其真实性、完整性负责。申请授权及投诉,请联系Mysteel(021-26093397)处理。</p> <span class='h-statement-show'>展开</span> </article> <div class="content-block-title s-title"> <h2 style="display: inline-block;"> <a 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