Mysteel：汽车原材料周报（6.27-7.1）-我的钢铁网

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style='color:#3861ab'>铝</a>市场仍难改弱势，持货商积极出货回款，接货方看跌情绪浓。</p> <p>总体来看，钢厂在大面积的减产检修后，产量再度大幅下降的可能性偏低，而即期利润仍然微薄，其中长流程企业微利，短流程企业亏损，增产积极性不足，预计产量呈窄幅波动态势；市场供应逐步下降，消费正在回归正常，社会库存仍将处于去化周期。不过，当前市场亏损面积较大，反弹过程中存在抛压。综合预计，下周国内钢材价格整体震荡偏强运行；有色方面，<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-967-----0201-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>铜</a><strong>市场心态较为悲观，预计本周铜价弱势下行</strong>；铝市<strong>市场整体交投偏谨慎，本周<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-967-----0202-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>铝价</a>弱势震荡。</strong></p> <p><strong>一、原材料品种价格监测</strong></p> <p><strong>截止2022</strong><strong>年7</strong><strong>月1</strong><strong>日，各原材料当日即时价格以及价格周环比情况如下：</strong></p> <p style="text-align: center;"><img alt="" src="//img01.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/glinfo/2022/07/03/211344.png" style="width: 700px; height: 685px;" /></p> <p><strong>二、汽车行业原材料基本面分析——钢材篇</strong></p> <p><strong>主要内容摘要①——<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-968-----010104-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>冷轧</a>：市场淡季特征愈加明显，价格止跌企稳</strong></p> <p>上周全国冷轧板卷期货热卷震荡上涨，市场心态逐渐修复。基本面看，冷轧产量小幅回升，与<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-968-----010101-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>建筑钢材</a>不太相同的是，近期冷系品种的减产力度尚未形成。市场方面，商家对后市信心不足，商家心态谨慎为主。并且当前下游终端接单较为一般，稍微调高报价后询单人数较为冷清。需求方面，月底商家依旧出货回笼资金为主，然而传统淡季高温多雨天气限制下游需求释放，目前市场淡季特征愈加明显，后面受淡季影响，市场需求难见明显好转。综合来看，上周期货盘面反弹趋势明显，且钢材品种多数消费回暖明显，钢材现货价格随即止跌反弹。但目前冷轧消费依然不及市场反弹预期，<strong>预计本周冷轧价格弱势震荡。</strong></p> <p><strong>主要内容摘要②——<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-968-----010103-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>热轧</a>：热轧供应尚在高位需求改善偏慢价格或将偏弱运行</strong></p> <p>短期市场来看，供应并没有呈现减少的节奏，会整体大于消费，消费在逐步恢复的情况下，速度偏慢，因此风险会呈现继续累积的过程。7月份总检修量偏少，接单目前进度约为7-8成水平。目前看核心矛盾的缓解较难，而短期利润出现快速回升，钢厂检修较之前有所减少，总量较为有限。所以就后几周情况而言，仍需要关注订单压力的缓解情况，包括订单顶价的意愿。市场心态稍有改善，但逢高出货的意愿继续在加大，轮库的意愿增加。而下游端看，短期补库结束，再度补库的意愿有所下降。近期期现商拿货的情况较为明显，特别是盘面升水正套单较为明显，对于当前消费刚恢复，持续力不强，产量又难以下降，对本周价格预计为4300-4400元/吨。</p> <p><strong>主要内容摘要③——<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-967-----0102-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>特钢</a>：供给处于高位，下游需求疲弱，预计<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-967-----0102-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>优特钢</a>价格震荡偏弱运行</strong></p> <p>上周优特钢随着<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-968-----0307-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>钢坯</a>上涨，期货价格反弹，上周市场价格止跌企稳，并小幅反弹，品种和区域价差缩小，周均成交小幅上升。供应方面，上周共计8家优特钢厂出台检修减产政策，周均影响产量2.21万吨，钢厂供应小幅下降；库存方面，钢厂检修的同时，钢厂库存和社会库存均环比出现不同程度下降，但整体仍处于高位；需求方面，传统淡季，下游需求表现依然乏力，成交小幅回升但放量不明显，市场信心仍不足。综合来看，<strong>预计本周优特钢市场价格弱势运行。</strong></p> <p><strong>主要内容摘要④——<a href='https://bxg.m.mysteel.com/' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>不锈钢</a>：304或将阶段性触底 <a href='https://bxg.m.mysteel.com/' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>不锈钢价格</a>先跌后涨</strong></p> <p>上周<a href='https://bxg.m.mysteel.com/' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>不锈钢现货</a>价格呈现先跌后涨，整体下行态势，周初虽有不锈钢厂集中检修减产消息刺激，但同时也有佛山市场宏旺代理304冷轧低价至17000元/吨，现货跌势难改，但同时市场出现封盘或贸易商收货等操作，后随着期货盘面走强，市场成交有转好，现货也有100-300探涨。截止7月1日，民营304冷轧2.0mm毛边17300-17400元/吨，民营304五尺热轧毛边16800-17000元/吨，跌400-800元/吨，201J1冷轧1.0mm9400-9450元/吨，430冷轧切边8100-8250元/吨，跌50-200元/吨。库存方面，据<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>Mysteel</a>调研，6月30日，全国主流市场不锈钢社会库存总量84.68万吨，周环比上升0.15%，年同比上升19.73%。其中300系<a href='https://bxg.m.mysteel.com/' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>不锈钢库存</a>总量44.75万吨，周环比下降0.37%，年同比上升14.59%。上周库存增加主要体现在热轧资源，无<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-967-----0207-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>锡</a>市场300系库存增加明显，以德龙、北港到货为主，但佛山到货不多去库明显，总库存略降；地区性市场400系热轧到货增加，市场因出货不佳，不少出现降价跑货现象，但整体出货情况偏冷，佛山市场热轧资源相较有所消化。近期<a href='https://bxg.m.mysteel.com/nie/' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>镍</a>铁、不锈钢现货价格基本阶段性触底，产业或将慢慢进入修复期，但不锈钢需求仍没有太好起色，关注钢厂实际减产量级，预计本周304价格弱稳运行概率较大。</p> <p><strong>三、汽车行业原材料基本面分析——<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-967-----02-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>有色金属</a>材料篇</strong></p> <p><strong>主要内容摘要⑤——铝：现货成交未见明显好转，铝价震荡走低</strong></p> <p>上周铝市场仍难改弱势，持货商积极出货回款，接货方看跌情绪浓，谨慎观望，采购意愿较差，整体成交平平；佛山地区成交价19150元/吨，跌150元/吨，随着市场大户积极收货，市场交易情绪回暖，但终端依旧刚需采购为主，成交略有好转。基本面上，供给端，国内电解铝运行产能仍在继续抬升，但供应的增速已有所放缓。需求端，近期下游加工企业开工率进一步下滑，但国内电解铝库存仍延续去库状态。总体而言，近期在宏观因素的主导下，铝价受到了较强的压制，但库存低位及成本方面对铝价仍有一定支撑，<strong>因此预计本周铝价将维持弱势震荡运行。</strong></p> <p><strong>四、汽车行业动态信息一览</strong></p> <p><strong>1.6月中国汽车经销商库存预警指数为49.5%</strong></p> <p>6月30日，中国汽车流通协会发布的最新一期“中国汽车经销商库存预警指数调查”VIA（VehicleInventoryAlertIndex）显示，<strong>2022年6月中国汽车经销商库存预警指数为49.5%，同比下降6.6个百分点，环比下降7.3个百分点，库存预警指数位于荣枯线之下。</strong>得益于国家及地方政府陆续出台包括财政补贴、减征购置税、放宽汽车限购等在内的系列促进汽车消费的相关政策，汽车流通行业进入景气区间。</p> <p><strong>2.2022世界新能源汽车大会8月下旬海南举办</strong></p> <p>6月30日下午，中国科学技术协会(中国科协)在北京举行新闻发布会宣布，2022年世界新能源汽车大会(WNEVC)将于8月25日至28日在海南海口举办，这将是自2019年创办以来，连续在海南举办的第四届世界新能源汽车大会，旨在新能源汽车领域深化全球合作、搭建国际交流平台。</p> <p></p> <p style="text-align: 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