The Decline of the U.S. Labor Share

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Where are US-China relations headed? </span> </article> </div> <div class="topic-post py-[24px]"> <article class="article-nav relative group flex flex-col gap-3"> <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/events/relations-with-turkey-under-trump-2-0/" class="overlay-link absolute w-full h-full top-0 left-0 z-10"> <span class="sr-only"> Relations with Turkey under Trump 2.0 </span> </a> <div class="img-wrapper relative overflow-hidden"> <figure class="overflow-hidden aspect-[308/173] min-h-[158px] md:min-h-[172px]"> <img class="object-cover w-full h-full absolute" src="https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/2019-11-13T220420Z_1658388041_RC2MAD9Q8ACH_RTRMADP_3_USA-TRUMP.jpg?quality=75&w=500" alt="Relations with Turkey under Trump 2.0" /> </figure> <div class="overlay absolute w-full h-full top-0 left-0 bg-20-black opacity-0 transition-all duration-quick ease-cubic group-hover:opacity-100"> </div> </div> <span class="h4 text-link-underline group-hover:text-link-underline-hovered"> 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href="https://www.brookings.edu/topics/human-rights/">Human Rights & Civil Liberties</a> </li> <li class="topic-link"> <a class="text-medium text-link" href="https://www.brookings.edu/topics/immigration-5/">Immigrants & Immigration</a> </li> <li class="topic-link"> <a class="text-medium text-link" href="https://www.brookings.edu/topics/race-in-american-public-policy/">Race in Public Policy</a> </li> <li class="topic-link"> <a class="text-medium text-link" href="https://www.brookings.edu/topics/religion-politics/">Religion & Society</a> </li> <li class="topic-link"> <a class="text-medium text-link" href="https://www.brookings.edu/topics/social-equity-and-inclusion/">Social Equity & Inclusion</a> </li> </ul> <span class="topic-explore-link pt-5 flex-grow flex flex-col justify-end"> <a class="text-h5 text-link" href="https://www.brookings.edu/topics/race-in-american-public-policy/">Explore topic </a> </span> </div> <div class="topic-post py-[24px]"> <article class="article-nav relative 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</article> </div> <div class="topic-post py-[24px]"> <article class="article-nav relative group flex flex-col gap-3"> <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/articles/president-biden-issued-a-historic-apology-for-native-american-boarding-schools-heres-what-policymakers-can-do-next-to-support-tribal-education/" class="overlay-link absolute w-full h-full top-0 left-0 z-10"> <span class="sr-only"> President Biden issued a historic apology for Native American boarding schools. 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Here’s what policymakers can do next to support tribal education </span> </article> </div> </div> </div> </div> </li> <li class="menu-item menu-item-type-post_type menu-item-object-page menu-item-1690018 primaryLink inline-flex h-[30px]"><a href="https://www.brookings.edu/topics/" class="text-h5 flex items-center whitespace-nowrap text-link font-[400]">Topics</a> <div class="uk-dropbar uk-dropbar-top pointer-events-none p-0" uk-drop="stretch: true; boundary-y: !body; target: !.primary-nav; container: .primary-nav; animation: uk-animation-fade; animate-out: false; duration: 200; delay-hide: 0; overlay: true"> <div class="theme-white px-outer-lg pb-5 pointer-events-auto"> <ul class="dropbar-grid topicLinks grid grid-flow-col grid-rows-3 grid-cols-4 border-t border-20-black divide-x divide-20-black gap-5 gap-y-0"> <li class="sub-link"> <a class="flex flex-row gap-2 justify-start items-center text-link text-link py-2" href="https://www.brookings.edu/topics/business-industry/"> <div 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class="h5 person-hover text-link-underline no-underline hover:no-underline" href="" aria-describedby="person-tooltip-1">Michael W. L. Elsby</a>, <span id="person-tooltip-1" role="tooltip" class="tooltip theme-white p-3 shadow-person-hover max-sm:!hidden" uk-drop="toggle: #person-hover-1; pos: top-center; animation: uk-animation-slide-bottom-small, uk-animation-fade; animate-out: true; delay-hide: 50; offset: 5; mode: hover"> <div class="people people-name-and-title-desktop" data-filter-research-programs='' data-filter-topics='' data-filter-regions=''> <div class="people-wrapper"> <a href="" class="photo expert-link"> <div class="img-wrapper relative overflow-hidden"> <figure class="overflow-hidden relative aspect-[1/1] w-full rounded-full"> <div class="person-initials theme-medium-blue flex items-center justify-center text-center p-4 w-full h-full"> <span class="initials h2 md:h1"> MWLE </span> </div> </figure> </div> </a> <div class="info"> <span class="name">Michael W. L. Elsby</span> <span class="titles"> <span class="title-wrapper"> <span class="title">University of Edinburgh </span> </span> </span> </div> </div> </div> </span> <a id="person-hover-2" class="h5 person-hover text-link-underline no-underline hover:no-underline" href="" aria-describedby="person-tooltip-2">Bart Hobijn</a>, and <span id="person-tooltip-2" role="tooltip" class="tooltip theme-white p-3 shadow-person-hover max-sm:!hidden" uk-drop="toggle: #person-hover-2; pos: top-center; animation: uk-animation-slide-bottom-small, uk-animation-fade; animate-out: true; delay-hide: 50; offset: 5; mode: hover"> <div class="people people-name-and-title-desktop" data-filter-research-programs='' data-filter-topics='' data-filter-regions=''> <div class="people-wrapper"> <a href="" class="photo expert-link"> <div class="img-wrapper relative overflow-hidden"> <figure class="overflow-hidden relative aspect-[1/1] w-full rounded-full"> <div class="img-wrapper"> <img class="" src="https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/hobijn-bart.jpg?quality=75&w=250" srcset="https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/hobijn-bart.jpg 570w, https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/hobijn-bart.jpg?resize=150,150 150w, https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/hobijn-bart.jpg?resize=300,300 300w, https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/hobijn-bart.jpg?resize=100,100 100w, https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/hobijn-bart.jpg?resize=250,250 250w, https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/hobijn-bart.jpg?resize=500,500 500w" sizes="250px" alt="Bart Hobijn headshot" /> </div> </figure> </div> </a> <div class="info"> <span class="name">Bart Hobijn</span> <span class="titles"> <span class="title-wrapper"> <span class="title">Senior Economist and Economic Advisor </span> <span class="title-blurb">- Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago</span> </span> </span> </div> </div> </div> </span> <a id="person-hover-3" class="h5 person-hover text-link-underline no-underline hover:no-underline" href="https://www.brookings.edu/people/aysegul-sahin/" aria-describedby="person-tooltip-3">Ayşegül Şahin</a> <span id="person-tooltip-3" role="tooltip" class="tooltip theme-white p-3 shadow-person-hover max-sm:!hidden" uk-drop="toggle: #person-hover-3; pos: top-center; animation: uk-animation-slide-bottom-small, uk-animation-fade; animate-out: true; delay-hide: 50; offset: 5; mode: hover"> <div class="people people-name-and-title-desktop" data-filter-research-programs='' data-filter-topics='' data-filter-regions=''> <div class="people-wrapper"> <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/people/aysegul-sahin/" class="photo expert-link"> <div class="img-wrapper relative overflow-hidden"> <figure class="overflow-hidden relative aspect-[1/1] w-full rounded-full"> <div class="img-wrapper"> <img class="" src="https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/Sahin_2.jpg?quality=75&w=250" srcset="https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/Sahin_2.jpg 2491w, https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/Sahin_2.jpg?resize=300,291 300w, https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/Sahin_2.jpg?resize=768,744 768w, https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/Sahin_2.jpg?resize=1024,992 1024w, https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/Sahin_2.jpg?resize=1536,1489 1536w, https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/Sahin_2.jpg?resize=2048,1985 2048w, https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/Sahin_2.jpg?resize=100,97 100w, https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/Sahin_2.jpg?resize=250,242 250w, https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/Sahin_2.jpg?resize=500,485 500w, https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/Sahin_2.jpg?resize=1000,969 1000w, https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/Sahin_2.jpg?resize=1500,1454 1500w, https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/Sahin_2.jpg?resize=2000,1938 2000w" sizes="250px" alt="Aysegul Sahin Headshot" /> </div> </figure> </div> </a> <div class="info"> <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/people/aysegul-sahin/" class="text-link-underline"> <span class="name">Ayşegül Şahin</span> </a> <span class="titles"> <span class="title-wrapper"> <span class="title">Richard J. Gonzalez Regents Chair in Economics </span> <span class="title-blurb">- University of Texas at Austin</span> </span> </span> </div> </div> </div> </span> </div> </h5> <div> <p class="text-medium">Fall 2013</p> </div> <hr /> <p>Michael Elsby of the University of Edinburgh, Bart Hobijn of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, and Aysegul Sahin of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York find that the decline of the labor share, which has been driven by a decline in the share of payroll compensation in national income over the last 25 years, is likely due to the offshoring of the labor-intensive component of the US supply chain.</p> </div> </div> </div> <div class="right-col md:col-span-6 lg:col-span-7 xl:col-span-8 !hidden"> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div class="key-details article-key-details px-outer"> <div class="grid grid-cols-1 md:grid-cols-12 gap-5 gap-3 lg:gap-5 py-4 flex items-baseline max-md:border-t border-skin-hr-primary"> <div class="left-col md:col-span-6 lg:col-span-7 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class="topics__title"> More On </h5> <div class="topics-related-group flex flex-col gap-2 border-b border-skin-hr-secondary pb-3"> <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/topics/labor-policy-unemployment/" class="more-on-title text-wrapper linked-title text-medium text-link-underline">Labor & Unemployment</a> </div> <div class="topics-related-group flex flex-col gap-2"> <div class="related-group"> <div class="group-title label-small text-skin-caption">Program</div> <p class="group-list -comma-separated text-small"> <span class="item"><a href="https://www.brookings.edu/programs/economic-studies/" class="text-link-underline">Economic Studies</a></span> </p> </div> <div class="related-group"> <div class="group-title label-small text-skin-caption">Project</div> <p class="group-list -comma-separated text-small"> <span class="item"><a href="https://www.brookings.edu/projects/brookings-papers-on-economic-activity/" class="text-link-underline">Brookings Papers on Economic Activity</a></span> </p> </div> </div> </div> </aside> <div class="byo-block -narrow wysiwyg-block wysiwyg " > <p>The decline in the U.S. labor share – now at its lowest level in the post-war period after the Great Recession – has been concentrated in sectors that face increased import competition in the wake of the overall rising role of imports in the U.S. economy, according to a new paper presented today at the Fall 2013 Conference on the Brookings Papers on Economic Activity (BPEA).</p> <p>In “The Decline of the U.S. Labor Share,” authors Michael Elsby of the University of Edinburgh, Bart Hobijn of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, and Aysegul Sahin of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York find that the decline of the labor share, which has been driven by a decline in the share of payroll compensation in national income over the last 25 years, is likely due to the offshoring of the labor-intensive component of the US supply chain.</p> <p>Comparing the mean payroll shares for the time blocks of 1948-1987 to 2010-2012, the authors find an almost 4 percentage point drop, from 57.1 to 53.3 percent, and then further posit that the majority (about 3.3 of the 3.9 percent) of the decline is related to the import exposure of US businesses. Looking at other pieces of business sector income over those two time periods, they find that the decline of the labor share does not reflect an increase in corporate profit rates but rather an increase in the share of income paid for the use of structures and equipment.</p> <p>The authors note that if globalization continues apace, the labor share will most likely continue to decline, especially in sectors that face the largest increases in foreign competition. They explore four additional explanations for the decline: the headline measure overstates the decline of the labor share by one-third because of the way self-employment income is estimated; the declining labor share is not merely a recent phenomenon — although the most recent decline has been dominated by changes in the trade and manufacturing sectors, even prior to 1980, there have been substantial, though offsetting, movements in labor shares within industries; there is limited evidence that the share is dropping due to the substitution of capital for (unskilled) labor to exploit technical change embodied in new capital goods; and the decline in the percent of unionized workers in the workplace is not, in fact, a major cause of the decline of the labor share.</p> <p>Elsby, Hobijn and Sahin also point to the public policy implications of the labor share, writing that in addition to the fact that developments in certain industries affect the aggregate labor share, particular types of legislation — such as the Affordable Care Act — are also likely to drive movements in the near future. “Since health insurance benefits are part of payroll compensation, a change in the prevalence of these benefits that is not offset by changes in wages and salaries will affect the labor share.”</p> </div> <div class="byo-block -narrow related-content sm:overflow-hidden max-sm:w-screen max-sm:-ml-outer pt-3 pb-4" > <div class="block-wrapper flex flex-col items-center gap-24 lg:gap-5"> <p class="label-large tm-linethrough px-outer sm:px-0"> Related Content </p> <div class="related-wrapper w-full flex justify-center overflow-visible pt-0 lg:p-0 lg:pb-5 lg:pt-0"> <div class="related-content-feed block-campaign w-full sm:max-w-[576px] flex flex-row flex-nowrap sm:flex-wrap gap-24 sm:justify-center snap-mandatory snap-x overflow-x-auto sm:overflow-x-hidden px-[12vw] sm:px-0" data-campaign=""> <div class="article-wrapper w-full flex-shrink-0 sm:flex-shrink snap-center"> <article class="article article-content-width "> <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/articles/wages-profits-and-macroeconomic-adjustment-a-comparative-study/" class="overlay-link" > <span class="sr-only">Wages, Profits, and Macroeconomic Adjustment: A Comparative Study</span> </a> <div class="img-wrapper"> <figure> <img class="" src="https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2023/06/image-work-research.png?quality=75&w=500" srcset="https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2023/06/image-work-research.png 848w, https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2023/06/image-work-research.png?resize=300,198 300w, https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2023/06/image-work-research.png?resize=768,507 768w, https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2023/06/image-work-research.png?resize=100,66 100w, https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2023/06/image-work-research.png?resize=250,165 250w, https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2023/06/image-work-research.png?resize=500,330 500w" sizes="500px" alt="" /> </figure> </div> <div class="article-insert"> <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/topics/labor-policy-unemployment/" class="article-type">Labor & Unemployment</a> <span class="article-insert-details"> <span class="article-title "> Wages, Profits, and Macroeconomic Adjustment: A Comparative Study </span> <span class="meta"> <p class="byline"> Jeffrey D. 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