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政策积极信号显现,对中央空调有哪些利好?-中国空调制冷网
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<!--------head结束----------><style> img{max-width:650px} </style> <!--------head结束----------> <div id="main"> <!--------内容开始----------> <div class="column"> <div class="column_l"> <div class="det"> <div class="det_title"> <ul> <li class="det_title_name">政策积极信号显现,对中央空调有哪些利好?</li> <!-- <li class="det_title_from">来源:<span>新华社</span></li> --> <li class="det_title_from"> 来源:<span>产业在线</span></li> <li class="det_title_time">2024-01-18</li> </ul> </div> <div class="det_title_fenxiang"> <div class="fenxiang"> <!-- JiaThis Button BEGIN --> <div class="jiathis_style_32x32"> <a class="jiathis_button_weixin"></a> <a class="jiathis_button_tsina"></a> <a class="jiathis_button_cqq"></a> <a class="jiathis_button_qzone"></a> <a href="http://www.jiathis.com/share" class="jiathis jiathis_txt jiathis_separator jtico jtico_jiathis" target="_blank"></a> <a class="jiathis_counter_style"></a> </div> <script type="text/javascript" > var jiathis_config={ summary:"", shortUrl:false, hideMore:false } </script> <script type="text/javascript" src="http://v3.jiathis.com/code/jia.js" charset="utf-8"></script> <!-- JiaThis Button END --> </div> <div class="huifu"></div> </div> <div class="mess_text"> <div class="content" id="article"><div>2023下半年以来,中央空调市场面临着需求收缩、行业竞争加剧的局面,整体市场承压发展,但前三季度仍取得了10.8%的同比增长,销售规模再次突破千亿达到1123.4亿元。从宏观层面来看,中央空调的稳定增长,与国家在财政、货币、房地产、消费等方面政策的综合发力密不可分,在一系列稳增长政策的加持下,迎来了一定的增长空间。</div> <div>房地产政策:积极动态调整适应变化</div> <div>2023年,我国持续加大宏观调控政策实施力度,着力扩大内需、提振信心、防范风险,但总需求不足仍是当年最为核心的问题,其中房地产市场的持续深度调整是总需求不振的关键因素。</div> <div>国家统计局数据显示,2023年商品房销售面积111735万平方米,同比下降8.5%。受市场信心不足影响,居民购房需求继续由期房向现房转变,1-11月商品房现房销售额和销售面积分别增长18.0%、17.4%,期房同比分别下降9.0%、13.2%。在供给方面,房企投资、拿地意愿依旧低迷,但得益于前期“保交楼”政策的推动,竣工数据持续向好。</div> <div>从以上数据可知,这两年我国的房地产市场供求关系发生了重大变化。对此,各级部门也积极结合各地实际情况密集出台了系列政策措施,以期动态调整当前的房地产市场。比如,在7月24日中央政治局会议中明确提出:要切实防范化解重点领域风险,适应我国房地产市场供求关系发生重大变化的新形势,要加大保障性住房建设和供给,积极推动城中村改造和“平急两用”公共基础设施建设,盘活改造各类闲置房产。</div> <div>此后,多个部委从优化需求端购房政策、支持房企融资、增加保障性住房建设、推进城中村改造等方面频繁表态,释放积极信号。8月底,需求端相关举措实质性落地,随后一线城市全面执行首套房“认房不认贷”,意味着房地产行业政策调整逐渐扩大,市场预期或将有所回暖。</div> <div>除此之外,“十三五”以来,我国的绿色建筑行业在法规标准不断完善、标识认定管理逐步规范的利好下实现跨越式发展。而根据“十四五”规划目标,到2025年,城镇新建建筑要全面建成绿色建筑,同时完成既有建筑节能改造面积3.5亿平方米以上,建设超低能耗、近零能耗建筑0.5亿平方米以上。可见,我国发展绿色建筑事业是实现2030年城乡建设领域碳达峰的必然环节。</div> <div>由此可见,虽然房地产市场回暖不及预期,但密集出台的楼市政策也为中央空调市场点明了主要的优化空间和方向。未来,在城中村改造、保障性住房等领域或将有较大发展空间,其周边配套基础设施建设也将为中央空调提供诸多利好支持。</div> <div>产业政策:支持重点行业稳增长</div> <div>截至目前,工业和信息化部已会同有关部门印发并实施包括钢铁、有色、石化、化工、建材、机械、汽车、电力装备、轻工业和电子信息制造业等十大重点行业的稳增长工作方案,并提出了明确的发展目标和配套政策。据工业和信息化部运行监测协调局介绍,前述行业增加值合计占规模以上工业增加值的七成左右,稳住这些重点行业,基本上就稳住了工业经济。</div> <div>从十大重点行业稳增长方案来看,政策主要涉及供需两大内容:一方面,着力恢复和扩大重点领域需求,促进投资、消费、出口共同发力,夯实工业稳定增长基础;另一方面,着力搭建高质量供给体系,稳产业、育企业、建标准,激发工业增长内生动力。</div> <div>比如,《汽车行业稳增长行动方案》提出:各地不得新增汽车限购措施,鼓励实施汽车限购地区在2022年购车指标基础上增加一定数量购车指标,进一步促进汽车消费;支持开展车用芯片、固态电池、操作系统、高精度传感器等技术攻关和推广应用,进一步提升产品性能。</div> <div>《电子信息制造业稳增长行动方案》提出:促进传统领域消费升级,并培育壮大虚拟现实、视听产业、先进计算、北斗应用、新型显示、智能光伏等新增长点;支持集成电路、新型显示、通讯设备、智能硬件、锂离子电池等重点领域重大项目开工建设,加强能源资源、用工用地等生产要素保障,并鼓励建设电子信息制造业绿色工厂,促进绿色制造和智能化升级。</div> <div>对于中央空调行业来讲,近年来离心机、空气处理设备等产品在新能源、数据中心、半导体、锂电池等工业领域取得了较快发展。因此,随着重点工业领域的政策支持和投资力度增强,将继续为大型冷水机组产品提供增长势能,助力其在热点工业场景保持稳定增长。</div> <div>消费政策:紧抓大宗商品消费,着力扩大国内需求</div> <div>去年初以来,我国通过《关于做好2023年促进绿色智能家电消费工作的通知》《关于促进电子产品消费的若干措施》《关于促进汽车消费的若干措施》等政策文件来积极提振汽车、电子产品、家居等大宗产品消费,并着力推动服务业经济恢复,取得了较好成果。</div> <div style="text-align: center;"><img src="http://www.chinahvacr.com/file/upload/202401/18/09-51-30-20-1.jpg" width="599" height="334" alt="" /></div> <div>国家统计局数据显示,2023年全年社会消费品零售总额471495亿元,比上年增长7.2%,家用电器和音像器材类、汽车类等商品零售总额均保持增长趋势。</div> <div>从产业增加值看,前三季度信息传输、软件和信息技术服务业,住宿和餐饮业,交通运输、仓储和邮政业,批发和零售业增加值同比分别增长12.1%、14.4%、7.5%和6.1%,均得以恢复,而且规模以上服务业企业营业收入同比增长7.2%,接近2019年同期水平。说明2023年我国服务业基本实现了全面恢复,增长势头迅猛。</div> <div>此外,根据12月的中央经济工作会议精神,2024年我国经济工作要推动消费从疫后恢复转向持续扩大,培育壮大新型消费,稳定和扩大传统消费,提振新能源汽车、电子产品等大宗消费。要以提高技术、能耗、排放等标准为牵引,推动大规模设备更新和消费品以旧换新。支持社会资本参与新型基础设施等领域建设。同时还要促进房地产市场平稳健康发展,加快推进保障性住房建设、“平急两用”公共基础设施建设、城中村改造等“三大工程”。</div> <div>随着政府部门对消费政策导向的愈发清晰和力度加深,中央空调在零售市场的应用或将有新的起色,进而推动小多联、户用水机等产品的快速发展。</div> <div>总之,2023年以来我国持续加大宏观调控政策实施力度,使得经济运行总体回升向好,并呈现出波浪式发展、曲折式前进的经济特征。也正由于经济复苏过程曲折,使得各行业间分化加剧,导致宏观数据与企业和居民的微观感受之间存在巨大差异。特别是处于制造业下游的民营企业,对于经济形势的严峻性方面感受更强,信心回暖缓慢。</div> <div>但结合当前的经济发展现状和宏观数据来看,2023年我国对全球经济增长的贡献预计能够达到三分之一,仍然是全球增长最大引擎。2024年,面对持续向好的宏观经济环境,各有关部门定将会通过多种政策措施来提高企业经营信心和居民的消费信心,进而助力终端市场需求回暖,也将为我国中央空调市场带来更多的发展机遇。</div></div> </div> <div class="xw_line"> </div> <div class="mess_footnote"> <ul> <li></li> <li></li> </ul> </div> <div class="fenxiang"> <!-- JiaThis Button BEGIN --> <div class="jiathis_style_32x32"> <a class="jiathis_button_weixin"></a> <a class="jiathis_button_tsina"></a> <a class="jiathis_button_cqq"></a> <a class="jiathis_button_qzone"></a> <a href="http://www.jiathis.com/share" 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